Why Did Iraq Pull Out Of Its $2 Billion Oil Deal With China? Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link here. 

It begins:

Just when it looked like Iraq was becoming a regional leader it decided to halt a $2 billion pre-paid oil supply deal with China's state-owned Zhenhua Oil Co. despite aims to strengthen ties with China. 

Iraq decided to end a deal with Zhenhua and sell its crude supply to other customers as oil prices continue to rise. The deal with the Chinese company, that was agreed upon earlier this year, would have seen 4 billion bpd of oil supplied each month. The oil was expected to be ‘destination free’, meaning Zhenhua could sell it to other companies.

However, government officials in Iraq are making the country’s budget priority clear as the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) deputy director-general Ali al-Shatari stated, "For the time being we may say it is not applicable at this stage because of oil prices, which are high and we are in a better position and we are even generating additional profits in excess of what the Iraqi budget needs."

The end of the Zhenhua deal follows recent announcements of big oil backing away from Iraq. Earlier this month, oil super-major, BP (0.00%), said it wanted to change its operations in Iraq’s supergiant Rumaila oil field, to create a stand-alone company. 

U.S. super-major ExxonMobil (0.22%) announced its intention to withdraw from Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oil field. And Royal Dutch Shell (0.19%) got out long ago, ceasing operations in Iraq’s supergiant Majnoon oil field in 2017 and West Qurna 1 in 2018.

There are several reasons for the Western supermajors’ exit from Iraq, including the movement away from traditional oil and gas towards low-carbon projects, persistent corruption in Iraq’s oil industry, and China’s dominance of Iraqi oil. 

Much more at the link.

Archived.

How Much Oil Can Saudi Arabia Really Produce? Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link to Simon Watkins. 

I talked about this for years -- when the shale revolution first began. I exhausted my interest (and probably my readers' interest) in this subject once I figured it out, and moved on. I occasionally write about it but, in general, have lost interest. 

At the link, Simon Watkins opening paragraph is written in the style of Henry James. 

Archived.

The Dawn Of A New Era For US Shale -- Oilprice -- June 27, 2021

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

Higher oil prices and capital expenditure discipline are setting the stage for the highest free cash flow on record for the world’s exploration and production companies this year. And U.S. shale firms—set to generate $60 billion free cash flow—are primed for playing a key role in the record-breaking free cash flow from global upstream operations.   The U.S. shale patch is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of capex discipline and high oil prices, as well as the largest contributor to the highest-ever free cash flows from the upstream business globally, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy.

The world’s public oil firms are set to see their combined free cash flow—all cash flows from upstream activity excluding such from financing or hedging effects—surge to a record-breaking $348 billion in 2021. According to estimates from Rystad Energy, this would be $37 billion higher than the previous all-time high of $311 billion, which was generated in 2008. Back then, just before the financial crisis, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel that year.  

The key driver of record cash flows would be the U.S. shale patch, which is estimated to rake in nearly $60 billion in free cash flow before hedging effects, Rystad Energy forecasts. 

This would be quite a U-turn in the financial fortunes of U.S. shale drillers, which have struggled to generate positive free cash flow for a decade since the shale revolution began.  

And unlike tech companies like Apple, most of these oil companies are going to return this free cash flow directly to investors.

More:

The world’s public oil firms are set to see their combined free cash flow—all cash flows from upstream activity excluding such from financing or hedging effects—surge to a record-breaking $348 billion in 2021. According to estimates from Rystad Energy, this would be $37 billion higher than the previous all-time high of $311 billion, which was generated in 2008. Back then, just before the financial crisis, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel that year.  

The key driver of record cash flows would be the U.S. shale patch, which is estimated to rake in nearly $60 billion in free cash flow before hedging effects, Rystad Energy forecasts. 

This would be quite a U-turn in the financial fortunes of U.S. shale drillers, which have struggled to generate positive free cash flow for a decade since the shale revolution began. 

Other data points:

• Bloomberg: free cash flow of $30 billion
• Deloitte: $30 billion represents just one-tenth of the $300 billion in net negative cash flow the US shale industry lost in the fifteen years since the first shale boom (a meaningless statistic)
• $300 / 15 = $20 billion per year on average

Much more at the link.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 27, 2021

One well:

• 37481, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1C TFH, Elidah, no production data,

New Wells Reporting 3Q21

Thursday, September 30, 2021: 33 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 224 for the year:

• 37027, conf-->drl/A, Enerplus, Cello 149-94-02C-01H-TF, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 271K 5/21; see this note; cum 278K 6/22;
• 24962; small jump in production
  
• 30202, conf-->loc/A, Whiting, Klose Federal 21-27-1H, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 147K 5/21; --; see this note;
  

Wednesday, September 29, 2021: 31 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 222 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, September 28, 2021: 31 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 222 for the year:

• None.

Monday, September 27, 2021: 32 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 223 for the year:

• 37245, conf-->loc/A, MRO, Armstrong 14-34H, Dunn County, Bailey, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 181K 5/22; see #18135; update here;
  
• 38181, conf-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2B-11-1HS, Billings County, Little Knife; early, minimal production, scout ticket not updated; 14K in 8/21; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 79K 5/22;
  
• 37028, conf-->drl/A, Enerplus, Mandolin 149-94-02C-01H, McKenzie County, Mandaree, early, nice production, scout ticket not updated; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 176K 5/22; see this note;
  
• 37029, conf-->drl/A, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 321K 5/22; see this post;
  

Sunday, September 26, 2021: 28 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 219 for the year:

• 37245, conf-->loc/A, , MRO, Armstrong 14-34H, Bailey, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 181K 5/22; cum 216K 8/22;
  

Saturday, September 25, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• None.

Friday, September 24, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, September 23, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• None.

Monday, September 20, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:

• 38153, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL, Chimney Butte, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 145K 5/22; cum 191K 8/22;

Sunday, September 19, 2021: 26 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 217 for the year:

• 38154, conf-->F/A, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL1, Chimney Butte, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 112K 5/22;
  

Saturday, September 18, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:

• None.

Friday, September 17, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:

• None.
  

Thursday, September 16, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:

• 38156, conf->drl/A, CLR, Kukla 10-16HSL1, Chimney Butte, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 57K 5/22;

Wednesday, September 15, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, September 14, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

• None.

Monday, September 13, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, September 12, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:

• 37887, conf-->loc/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 102K 5/22;
  

Saturday, September 11, 2021: 23 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 214 for the year:

• 37886, conf-->loc/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 116K 5/22;
  

Friday, September 10, 2021: 22 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 213 for the year:

• 37885, conf-->loc/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 3-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, first production, 21/21; t--; cum 99K 5/22;

Thursday, September 9, 2021: 21 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 212 for the year:

• 35860, conf-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-2A-11-3H, Little Knife, no evidence of halo effect; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 83K 5/22;
  
• 37884, conf-->loc/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 3-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 99K 5/22;
  

Wednesday, September 8, 2021: 19 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 210 for the year:

• 37882, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Burgess 4-14-23-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, the NDIC has the scout ticket as conf; t--; cum 167K 8/23;
  
• 37883, conf-->loc/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 4-11-2-158N-100W-MBH, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 92K 5/22;
  

Tuesday, September 7, 2021: 17 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 208 for the year:

• #34579, conf/loc/loc-->PNC; Enerplus, Basilisk 151-94-16B-21H-TF, Sanish, no production data;
  

Monday, September 6, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, September 5, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, September 4, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Friday, September 3, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, September 2, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, September 1, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, August 31, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Monday, August 30, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, August 29, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, August 28, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• None.
  

Friday, August 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:

• 37920, conf-->loc/A, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 5-31-19TFH, Big Bend, first production, 2/22; t--; cum 38K 4/22;
  

Thursday, August 26, 2021: 15 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 206 for the year: 

• 37919, conf-->loc/A, Slawson, Sniper Federal 3-7-7H, Big Bend, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 104K 4/22;
  

Wednesday, August 25, 2021: 14 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 205 for the year:

• 37918, conf-->loc/A, Slawson, Sniper Federal 4-6-7TFH, Big Bend, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 61K 4/22;
  

Tuesday, August 24, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

• None.

Monday, August 23, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, August 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:

• 37988, conf-->loc/A, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, huge well, first production, 6/21, t--; cum 454K 5/22 see this note;

Saturday, August 21, 2021: 12 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 203 for the year:

• 36078, conf-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-11C-2-2H, Little Knife, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 45K 11/21;
  

Friday, August 20, 2021: 11 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 202 for the year:

• 37989, conf-->loc/A, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1, Antelope, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 162K 11/21; see this note;
  

Thursday, August 19, 2021: 10 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 201 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, August 18, 2021: 10 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 201 for the year:

• 37843, conf-->loc/A, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HY, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 69K 11/21; see this post;
  

Tuesday, August 17, 2021: 9 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 200 for the year:

• 22652, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HC, Heart Butte, t--; cum 205K 8/22;
  

Monday, August 16, 2021: 8 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 199 for the year:

• 37407, conf-->loc/NC, CLR, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production; a nice well; cum 300K 8/23;
  
• 22653, conf-->loc/NC, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HZ, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 88K 11/21; cum 227K 8/22;
  

Sunday, August 15, 2021: 6 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 197 for the year:

• 37842, conf-->loc/A, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HDL, Heart Butte, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 90K 11/21; cum 235K 8/22;
  

Saturday, August 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 196 for the year:

• 37941, conf-->loc/A, CLR, Bang 3033H1, Cedar Coulee, 3K over six days; cum 246K 8/23;
  

Friday, August 13, 2021 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

• None

Thursday, August 12, 2021 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, August 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 195 for the year:

• 37406, conf-->loc/NC, CLR, Gale 13-32H1, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 279K 8/23;
  

Tuesday, August 10, 2021 3 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 194 for the year:

• None.

Monday, August 9, 2021: 3 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 194 for the year:

• 37405, conf-->loc/IA, CLR, Gale 12-32H, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 320K 8/23;
  

Sunday, August 8, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

• None.
  

Saturday, August 7, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

• None.

Friday, August 6, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, August 5, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, August 4, 2021: 2 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 193 for the year:

• 37606, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Carus 3-28H, Cedar Coulee, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 83K 11/21;
  

Tuesday, August 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 192 for the year:

• None.

Monday, August 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 192 for the year:

• 37854, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Carus 14-28H1, Cedar Coulee, first production, 1021; t--; cum 71K 11/21; see this note;
  

Sunday, August 1, 2021: 0 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 31, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Friday, July 30, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, July 29, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, July 28, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Monday, July 26, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.
  

Sunday, July 25, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 24, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 191 for the year:

• 37888, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 158-91-16C--2H, Kittleson Slough, t--; cum 151K 8/23;
  

Friday, July 23, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 190 for the year:

• 37889, conf-->drl/A, Petro-Hunt, State 158-91-16C-9-3H, Kittleson Slough, producing, not particularly great; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 49K 11/21;
  
• 37259, 727, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-4-2-9H, Eightmile, producing, NDIC not updating their scout tickets; Nine Point Energy no longer exists; most likely this is now a Bowline well; yes, it's a Bowline well; t2/21; cum 176K 11/21;
  
• 35562, 970, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-93-31-30-4TFH, Northwest McGregor, producing, not a particularly great well; t2/21; cum 93K 11/21;
  

Thursday, July 22, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, July 21, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

• None.

Monday, July 19, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, July 18, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

• 37479, conf-->drl/NC, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH, Elidah, t--; cum 120K 8/23;
  

Saturday, July 17, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year:

• 35560, 833, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-20MBH, McGregor, t2/21; cum 122K 11/21;
  

Friday, July 16, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, July 15, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

• None.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

• None.
  

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

• None.

Monday, July 12, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:

• 37018, 481, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX, t1/21; cum 126K 11/21;
  

Sunday, July 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

• None.

Friday, July 9, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:

• 37401, drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Gale 10-32H1, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum 3K over 4 days;

Thursday, July 8, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 183 for the year:

• 37400, drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Gale 9-32H, Cedar Coulee, first production, --; t--; cum 4K over 4 days;

Wednesday, July 7, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 182 for the year:

• None.

Tuesday, July 6, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 182 for the year:

• 37399, drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Gale 8-32H1, Cedar Coulee, 6K over 7 days 11/21;
  

Monday, July 5, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, July 4, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Saturday, July 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Friday, July 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• None.

Thursday, July 1, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:

• 37481, drl/NC, BR, F Jorgenson 1C TFH, Elidah, t--; cum 128K 8/23;
  

**********************************

Data for 3Q21: This Page
Data for 2Q21: 2Q21
Data for 1Q21:  1Q21

 Data for 4Q20: 4Q20

Data for 3Q20: 3Q20

Data for 2Q20: 2Q20

Data for 1Q20: 1Q20

Data for 4Q19: 4Q19

Data for 3Q19:  3Q19

Data for 2Q19: 2Q19

Data for 1Q19: 1Q19 Data for 4Q18: 4Q18 Data for 3Q18: 3Q18 Data for 2Q18: 2Q18 Data for 1Q18: 1Q18 Data for 4Q17: 4Q17 Data for 3Q17: 3Q17

Data for 2Q17: 2Q17

Data for 1Q17: 1Q17

Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16

Data for 1Q16: 1Q16

Data for 4Q15: 4Q15

Data for 3Q15: 3Q15

Data for 2Q15: 2Q15

Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14

Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14

Data for 1Q14: 1Q14

Data for 4Q13: 4Q13

Data for 3Q13: 3Q13

Data for 2Q13: 2Q13

Data for 1Q13: 1Q13

Data for 4Q12: 4Q12

Data for 3Q12: 3Q12

Data for 2Q12: 2Q12

  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   

Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 

Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 

Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 

 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  

 Data for 2H10: 2H10 

Through 1H10: 1H10

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 27, 2021

Monday, July 5, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
None.

Sunday, July 4, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
None.

Saturday, July 3, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
None.

Friday, July 2, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
None.

Thursday, July 1, 2021: 1 for the month, 1 for the quarter, 181 for the year:
37481, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1C TFH,

Wednesday, June 30, 2021: 77 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, June 29, 2021: 77 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
None.

Monday, June 28, 2021: 77 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
None.

Sunday, June 27, 2021: 77 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
None.

Saturday, June 26, 2021: 77 for the month, 102 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
None.

If There Is One Metric That Best Measures US Economic Activity .... -- June 27, 2021

I've called attention to this for the past several weeks.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Now, today, more corroboratirve data:

US gasoline demand was down almost 2% the prior Friday and was down another 1% this most recent Friday vs the average of the last four Fridays. 

Demand this week is nearly guaranteed to be lower than last.