Making America Great Again -- June 18, 2017

Futures mean squat, but considering, the numbers are quite remarkable. Right now, as of 10:50 p.m. ET, futures:

• S&P: up 5.50 points
• Nasdaq: up 27.00 points
• Dow: up 44.00 points

Zavanna's Shepherd Wells In Stony Creek

Locator: 10010SHEPHERD.

A reader suggested I take a look at these wells for completion strategies. Raw data here; done quickly; there could be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I will come back to these later. The wells:

• 29510, IA/48 (no typo), Zavanna, Shepherd 3-11 4TFH, Stony Creek, 41 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum 98K 3/20; remains off line 3/21; cum 119K 10/23; off line 11/23;
  
• 29509, 125, Zavanna, Shepherd 3-11 3H, Stony Creek, 49 stages, 5.4 million lbs, t1/17; cum 237K 3/21; jump in production, 3/18; cum 276K 1/24;
  
• 29508, 139, Zavanna, Shepherd 3-11 2TFH, Stony Creek, 50 stages, 6 million lbs, t12/16; cum 153K 1/21; remains off line 3/21; cum 179K 12/23; off line 1/24;
  
• 29507, 160, Zavanna, Shepherd 3-11 1H, Stony Creek, 50 stages, 7.1 million lbs, t1/17; cum 330K 3/21; cum 394K 1/2;
  

• 21874, 540, Zavanna, Tony 1-3H, Stony Creek, short lateral, 20 stages, 2.3 million lbs, t8/12; cum 360K 3/21; (jump in production); was off line early 2019; back on line 6/19; cum 409K 1/24;
  
• 21873, 640, Zavanna, Bengal 1-2H, Stony Creek, short lateral, 20 stages, 2.4 million lbs, t7/12; cum 324K 3/21; (jump in production); was off line early 2019; back on line 6/19; cum 361K 1/24;
  
• 20111, 718, Zavanna, Wildcat 1-11H, Stony Creek, short lateral, 20 stages, 2.3 million lbs, t8/11; cum 319K 5/20; remains off line 1/21; produces small amount over five days, 3/21; cum 320K 3/21; cum 361K 1/24;
  

The graphic:

T

Production profiles. 

#20111:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	5613	4777	10468	5945	5471	27
BAKKEN	3-2017	22	3435	3281	8157	3617	3239	50
BAKKEN	2-2017	18	3091	2988	7750	3451	3130	53
BAKKEN	1-2017	29	5095	4907	15246	5767	3129	2206
BAKKEN	12-2016	17	4732	4541	12961	5037	4784	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	23	6066	5568	25892	8643	7381	919
BAKKEN	10-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	12	744	595	1259	889	710	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	1478	1441	2649	2462	2000	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	1566	1538	2968	2473	1923	88
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	1430	1315	1780	2360	1868	45
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	1551	1576	2231	2438	1747	229

#21873:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	4841	4030	10844	5832	0	5385
BAKKEN	3-2017	29	4016	3636	14060	1990	0	1558
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	287	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	24	3403	3448	15421	3623	3120	145
BAKKEN	12-2016	28	8504	8415	47358	10746	10310	19
BAKKEN	11-2016	5	438	971	5159	267	118	74
BAKKEN	10-2016	6	926	213	5611	1238	0	1149
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	2	51	0	60	31	0	1
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	2028	1755	2677	3029	1900	667
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	2355	2110	2987	3774	2361	966
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	1770	1790	1918	1900	1028	410
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	1757	1490	2578	2673	1887	339

#21874:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	4475	4389	11819	5689	5066	176
BAKKEN	3-2017	14	1801	1726	6447	1618	120	1289
BAKKEN	2-2017	7	1289	1226	3420	1282	1175	3
BAKKEN	1-2017	28	3946	3812	18352	4427	3996	14
BAKKEN	12-2016	0	0	747	0	179	179	0
BAKKEN	11-2016	4	895	0	2878	991	0	931
BAKKEN	10-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	1	3	0	3	15	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	10	343	342	428	404	224	31
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	1544	1519	1810	1458	786	210
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	2056	1964	2230	2453	1995	11
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2042	1875	2072	1929	1452	15

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Early This Week -- June 18, 2017

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

• 29636, 1,673, EOG, Parshall 27-3332H, Parshall, 26 stages, 6.3 million lbs, t12/16; cum 63K 4/17; (#29635)
• 29637, 1,103, EOG, Parshall 24-3332H, Parshall, 27 stages, 6.5 million lbs, t12/16; cum 39K 4/17; (#29635)
• 32016, 1,554, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 11T, Sivertson, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 144K 4/17; [note first comment --

Natural gas gross revenue from this well [#332016] is slightly over 3/4 million bucks at $2.58/mmbtu.

This was the recent price at the Watford City transfer point (Northern Border) as per the recent Director's Cut.

Adds up.

• 32888, drl, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, no production data, (#19133)

Tuesday, June, 20, 2017

• 26432, 1,388, WPX, Beaks 36-35HA, Mandaree, 61 stages, 9.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 23K 4/17 (27 days), (#19289)
• 32438, 1,027, Nine Point Energy (formerly Triangle Petroleum), Little Muddy 17H, Williston, 31 stages, 10 million lbs; TD, 20,940 feet; spud date, July 20, 2016; TD, August 3, 2016, t1/17; cum 55K 4/17;  
• 32889, SI/NC, MRO, Lockwood USA 44-22TFH, Antelope, no production data, , (#19144)
• 32921, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5AXD, Lost Bridge, no production data, (#21702)

Monday, June 19, 2017

• 32820, 602, WPX, Beaks 36-35HW, Mandaree, Three Forks, 61 stages, 6.9 million lbs, t4/17 cum -- , (#19289 -- significant jump, 4/17)
• 32890, drl, MRO, Murphy USA 34-22TFH-2B, Antelope, no production data, (#19144) 

Sunday, June 18, 2017

• 32209, 1,774, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 9B, Sivertson, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t12/16; cum 153K 4/17;

Saturday, June 17, 2017

• 32891, drl, MRO, Begola USA 34-22H, Antelope, no production data, (#19144)

****************************************

 32209, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 43-20 9B, Sivertson:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	29073	70869
3-2017	32966	67515
2-2017	33537	55609
1-2017	42922	74174
12-2016	14267	23419

32820, see above, WPX, Beaks 36-35HW, Mandaree:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	15830	10634

32438, see above, Nine Point Energy (formerly Triangle Petroleum), Little Muddy 17H:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	16793	6439
3-2017	8936	0
1-2017	17598	0
12-2016	11359	0

26432, see above, WPX, Beaks 36-35HA, Mandaree:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	22017	14044

32016, see above, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 11T, Sivertson:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	30316	65890
3-2017	30361	61934
2-2017	28801	56193
1-2017	39833	64498
12-2016	14153	21123

29637, see above, EOG, Parshall 24-3332H, Parshall:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	7603	4675
3-2017	7964	2282
2-2017	5849	2320
1-2017	12326	1963
12-2016	5523	869

29636, see below, EOG, Parshall 27-3332H, Parshall:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2017	14948	9718
3-2017	15372	5886
2-2017	12895	4079
1-2017	11943	5216
12-2016	7751	1107

Happy Father's Day -- June 18, 2017

Active rigs:

$44.68	6/18/2017	06/18/2016	06/18/2015	06/18/2014	06/18/2013
Active Rigs	57	28	78	189	184

Not fake news: poll. I don't watch mainstream media but I doubt this is being reported.

******************************

Amazon Whole Foods

Disclaimer: I love Amazon. I "accidentally" signed up for Amazon Prime and love it.

The price of membership will probably increase; I doubt that will adversely affect the overall number of memberships.

Disclaimer: I never shop at Whole Foods. When we lived in San Antonio, there was a Whole Foods grocer within walking distance of our house; we shopped there once in awhile (they are really, really nice stores) but they were just too expensive. And in Texas, Central Market, HEB, Tom Thumb, and Albertson's are all great alternatives to Whole Foods.

Some time ago I posted:

Yahoo!Finance posted this story a few hours before Amazon announced quarterly earnings: why it doesn't matter that Amazon's most popular service costs it billions. Data points:

• most popular service: Amazon Prime
• 80 million users (apparently US users)
• up 38% from a year ago
• if accurate, that suggests that nearly two-thirds of American households have Prime subscriptions
• (wow, wouldn't the political parties love to have those address lists; maybe they do)
• Prime members spend an average of $1,300 annually; vs $700 for typical non-Prime member
• much, much more than just fast delivery

More at the link.

By the way, I don't know what a "non-Prime member" is -- certainly it can't be everyone who has ever ordered anything from Amazon. Whatever.

I am fascinated with the Amazon-Whole Foods story.

Once Amazon made the decision to buy a grocer, it's interesting to ask why Amazon selected Whole Foods. It helped that activist investors in Whole Foods were looking for a buyer. On the other side of the coin, Amazon would certainly want to look for a grocer that "fit." According to the business media, almost everyone who shops at Whole Foods is also an Amazon Prime member. If the deal goes through, Whole Foods becomes the company store for Amazon Prime credit card holders. LOL. Margins already marginal in the grocery business and Amazon Prime get 5% off Amazon purchases; whether this will apply to in-store purchases is yet to be seen. But imagine if one gets 5% cash rewards on all grocery purchases. The average American family spends $4,000/year for groceries (and from the linked site, it suggests this is not simply groceries, but all things one buys at a grocery store these days) amounts to $200/year (5% cash-back) -- a trivial amount, except that it's always nice to see.

Omaha Steaks, on the other hand, and other retailers, rewards customers with points that can only be used at Omaha Steaks, making those retailers less appealing. Speaking of Omaha Steaks, the "word on the street" is that Costo has some of the best meat selections out there, and certainly, based on my experience with frozen steaks from Omaha, freezing is not an issue when it comes to perishables, unlike, fruits, vegetables, and flowers.

The "go-to" credit card in my wallet is the Amazon Prime credit card. I don't know if it's metal or not, but it is heavier than any of my other credit cards, and several retail clerks have commented on how heavy it is. It does get one's attention. I assume other "high-end" credit cards to the same thing.

I assume credit cards are a huge money-maker for those that issue them. I assume that most folks who shop at Whole Foods use their Amazon Prime credit card if they use a credit card, and it's hard to believe that Jeff Bezos didn't take that into account when he announced plans to buy Whole Foods.

So much of this seems about Jeff Bezos asking: if we buy a grocer, which grocer do we buy that our Amazon Prime members like the most? It just seems that in the retail arena of his business, Amazon Prime is where over-riding interests lie.

Talk about data mining.

I think it will be quite interesting to see how Amazon "leverages" Whole Foods if the regulators approve the deal. Trump will everything he can to stop the deal based on his campaign rhetoric. so we'll see.

******************************

The NY Times On Amazon-Whole Foods

Link here:

Yet if there’s one thing I’ve learned about Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and chief executive, after years of watching Amazon, it’s that he doesn’t spend a lot of time predicting future possibilities.

He is instead consumed with improving the present reality on the ground, especially as seen through a customer’s eyes. The other thing to know about Mr. Bezos is that he is a committed experimentalist. His main way of deciding what Amazon should do next is to try stuff out, see what works, and do more of that.

So the best way to think of this deal is to look at Whole Foods as a kind of guinea pig for Amazon — a pricey, organically sourced one, perhaps, but a guinea pig all the same.

The article fails to mention "data mining."

The article does note this:

The Whole Foods deal represents less than 3 percent of its $470 billion market cap: not just a guinea pig, but a cheap one, too.

********************************* 

Destination Shopping

A few weeks ago, when discussing the demise of big box stores in the US, a "talking head" on CNBC suggested that for retail to survive, a focus on "destination shopping" is a must. I am curious how Bezos plans to improve the grocery shopping experience at Whole Foods. Or is he is simply looking at Whole Foods as distribution points?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

I think the sell-off in the other grocers was completely over-done. I wouldn't touch shares in some of the grocers, but certainly this offers a buying opportunity in some. WMT, down 5%, is selling at a P/E of 17 with a dividend of almost 3%. WMT will hardly be affected by Amazon-Whole Foods. And, there's always a possibility the Amazon-Whole Foods deal does not get approved. Especially if there is any suggestion that the Russians were involved.

***********************

Amazon Is Eclipsing Walmart's BEST Efforts To Dominate E-Commerce

Does this really surprise anyone? Next time you visit Walmart, point out to your spouse the customers you see walking up and down the aisles that are likely to order on-line from Walmart ... okay, stop laughing.

Disclaimer: I shop at Walmart frequently, so if you see me there, ... nope, I don't order on-line from Walmart -- but I do from Amazon....

From Yahoo!Finance:

• "Walmart got crushed Friday following news that Amazon is aggressively moving nto the grocery store business"
• Walmart is aggressively getting into e-commerce by buying stand-alone on-line retail companies
• Walmart's online sales: $14 billion (2016)
• Amazon's online sales: $95 billion (2016)
• Walmart has 50 million SKUs (stock keeping units); up from 10 million just one year ago
• Amazon: hundreds (plural) of SKUs and billions of product pages
• "safe to assume Amazon is the "everything store" at this stage" -- Barclays
• but Amazon growth has plateaued -- see graph at the link 
• Walmart's on-line growth has surged (after introducing free shipping for orders over $45)
• but on-line sales contribute only 3% of Walmart's total sales

In-store pick-up:

• Walmart has advantage
• in-store pick-up makes sense in high-crime/high-theft neighborhoods
• in-store pick-up makes sense in gated communities where USPS / UPS may not deliver after hours
• could Amazon use Whole Foods as in-store pick-up points? 
• but overall, is in-store pick-up all that important? If I go to Walmart to get something and they don't have it, I'm likely to go home and order it from Amazon

*************************

How To Mitigate Shipping Expenses

I assume this has been something Amazon has offered for quite some time, but I saw it for the first time today.

I ordered a single item. It was a rare item, not easily found, except perhaps through Amazon. They probably have few of these items in stock and may be in a fulfillment center far from where I live. With Amazon Prime, they can ship this single item to me but it will be quite expensive (for a single, far-away item). So, Amazon tells me that if I forego the two-day Prime delivery, and have it sent the old-fashioned way, they will credit my account $5 when the item ships.

The item set me back less then $22 so a $5 discount was not trivial, and instead of getting the item on June 20th, I will get it June 25th or June 27th. I didn't care if I didn't get it until August. 

*****************************

"I've Never Seen An Amazon Employee --"

--  Mark Cuban, June 2, 2017. 

If the Amazon-Whole Foods deal goes through, Mark Cuban will be seeing a lot more Amazon employees. 

*****************************

Call Me Naive, But ...

... in the past few months, have we heard much from or about the following global hot spots?

• NOKO-SOKO-China-Japan
• Mexico
• the Mideast
• Ukraine

On top of all that, the southern border of the US seems to be very, very quiet.

************************

And Finally

About a year or so ago, our younger daughter wanted Lego's new Disney Castle. It was constantly "temporarily sold out," but eventually we were able to buy not one, but two sets. Yes, call us crazy. I don't remember the exact price Lego sold them for -- I believe $349 -- but during those periods when they were "temporarily sold out" they were "going for" $1,000 over on eBay.

Now, the same thing with a new Lego offering: the NASA Apollo Saturn V. And, yes, that is on our list to watch.