GDPNow — Up Again — “We’re Nearing A Mild Recession” — And, Oh, By The Way: Back In A Bull Market —June 11, 2023

Locator: 44910MKT.

GDPNow: link here. Most recent reading — 2.2%.

The only “thing” in a recession? Oil stocks. I’ve been waiting two decades for a breakout in the price of WTI. Time to move on.

Fed: likely no change in “Fed rate” in June.

Market: 

XOM -- Double Shale Production -- June 3, 2023

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/exxon-bets-new-ways-to-frack-can-double-oil-pumped-from-shale-wells-1.1927597

“There’s just a lot of oil being left in the ground,” Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference. “Fracking’s been around for a really long time, but the science of fracking is not well understood.”

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is the process of blasting water, sand and chemicals underground to break apart rock and keep it propped open for oil to flow out. Though the technology gave rise to the US shale boom, only about 10% of the oil in a reservoir is recovered using current techniques. Better drilling and fracking methods may prove critical as output growth from shale fields slows. 

Exxon is working on two specific areas to improve fracking, Woods said. It wants to be able to frack more precisely along the well so that more oil-soaked rock is getting drained. It also wants to keep the cracks open longer to boost the flow of oil. Sand is the primary method today to prevent fractures from closing up.

“That in my mind is where the first wave of technology will come into that field,” Woods said. “We think we’ve got some promising technologies to employ there that will significantly improve our recovery.”

 

Revenge Travel -- It's A Thing -- A Mild Recession — Munger — June 11, 2023

Locator: 44909MKT.  

Shell: says it's in the oil and gas business, again. Link to The WSJ. 

US rail: CEOs realize their workers are ... important .. offering concessions ... link to The WSJ.

Airlines ... revenge travel: this is very, very interesting.

• link to NPR;

Travel insurance company Allianz Partners analyzed more than 40,000 trip itineraries planned for this summer and concluded that American travel to Europe will jump 600% from last year.

This sharp uptick is not limited to Europe. This month during an industry conference, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said that "demand is off the charts," while the airline industry is struggling to keep up.

• link to Yahoo!Finance: Delta Airlines.

The summer of 2022 proved to be a season of “travel chaos,” but there’s something funny about this year: People just keep hitting the road. Even stubbornly “sticky” inflation and the highest ticket prices in many years aren’t enough to spoil the appeal.

And Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian just revealed to Fortune that demand remains “really, really strong,” to say the least. In fact, as he told Fortune CEO Alan Murray and editor-at-large Michal Lev-Ram on the Leadership Next podcast this week, his team has quantified Americans’ thirst for “revenge travel” right now, and it’s a huge number.

“People talk about revenge travel, or pent-up travel—this is beyond anything that people can classify as truly pent-up,” Bastian said. “We went through several years of people not being able to get back out and travel and experience and see loved ones, see their business colleagues, adventures—all the reasons we travel. And people had a lot of time.”

He revealed that he asked his team to measure the gap between inherent demand for U.S. travel that couldn’t be met over the past three years, based on “any kind” of historical pattern: “That gap is $300 billion—with a B.”

Delta is currently seeing demand it’s never seen before, he continued, “and there’s no end in sight. We’ve had the 20 largest cash sales days in our history all occur this year.”

Technology Weekend Continued -- Part 4 -- Superchargers -- Ford And General Motors Partner With Tesla -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44908TECH. 

TSLA: surges (in a good way). Shares up almost 50% in past month. We’re in a mild recession — Munger.

Crashed and burned: Blink Charging, EVgo, and ChargePoint;

• Motley Fool notes Tesla partnership with F, GM; says Stellantis could be next;
• closer and closer to the "holy grail": a universal supercharger.
• see this post.

Take it to the bank: if Stellantis partners with Tesla, the US has its universal supercharger

• game, set, match
• stick a fork in it: it's done

Technology Weekend Continued -- Part 3 -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44907TECH.   
Locator: 44907AAPL.

Apple one v one: link here.

First impressions: TechCrunch.

Forbes gets it: link here.

Technology Continued -- AMD -- Part 2 -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44906TECH. 

Updates

June 12, 2023: AMD: flirting with a new 52-week high.

Original Post 

AMD: tracking Nvidia gains. Link to Bloomberg via Yahoo!Finance.

The stock’s 87% surge would make it the top performer on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index if it wasn’t for the stratospheric gain of rival Nvidia Corp.

Nvidia briefly became the first chipmaker to have a trillion-dollar market value after delivering concrete evidence that the rush to develop new AI services is translating into a surge in orders for hardware.

AMD gets its shot to prove it’s also a player in AI computing on Tuesday when executives introduce new data center chips at an event in San Francisco.

Investors will get a peek at its Epyc processor aimed at cloud computing, but they’ll likely be more focused on the forthcoming MI300, a purported rival to the H100 from Nvidia that’s at the heart of that company’s strong position.

Reuters:

QCOM: Google search, June 11, 2023 --

Motley Fool: link here.

This Weekend: Focus On Generative AI -- Apple Goes Spatial -- Part 1 -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44905AAPL.  

So far this weekend:

• EVs and chips.
• Generative AI.

Tracking:

• Chips, semiconductor: link here.
• Apple: link here.

For newbies:

• this past week, technology developers and consumers came to a fork in the road
  
• Apple is not taking the "metaverse" fork to the right
• Apple is staying on the "computer" path to the left
• Apple is not introducing a "metaverse" gaming device
• Apple introduces a "spatial" computer; with a truly virtual "desktop" or (more accurately, many) "desktops"
• those taking the "metaverse" fork may be seeing a dead end in the road
• the Financial Times suggests the "metaverse" is dead.
• "metaverse": gaming; surged during the global Covid lockdown; Facebook renames itself "Meta"; Nvidia "won" the gaming technology with its GPUs.
• generative AI: gaming is dead; fewer and fewer adults on their sofas, stuck at home due to a global lockdown; ready to move on; Nvidia GPUs perfect for AR (same link as above)
  
• by the way, Nvidia technology mirrors the way nature / the natural world / biology actually evolves; absolutely fascinating;
  
• in big scheme of things, "gaming" is simply VR
• we have moved on to augmented reality (AR), extended reality (AR), mixed reality (MR); generative AI; gaming was a huge fad during the lockdown; it becomes a "smaller" thing going forward.
  
• quick analogy:
• VR: cartoons
• computer-generated avatars playing paintball 
  
• AR: reality enhanced
• real engineers solving problems in the field

*************************
Today

Meta:

• does the metaverse already feel obsolete after Apple's announcement this week?
• the FT says it does (already feel obsolete)
• link here;
• archived;

From the linked FT article:

Apple finally revealed the $3,499 Vision Pro, its long-awaited “mixed reality” headset, this week. It conjured up many descriptions — a “spatial computer that seamlessly blends digital content with the physical world”, a “personal movie theatre with a screen that feels 100 feet wide” — but one word remained glaringly absent: “metaverse”. 

The metaverse, a virtual world in which people would meet as avatars to play, work and socialise, was all the rage not long ago.

Facebook renamed itself Meta in 2021, and companies from Microsoft to Sony have proudly unveiled headsets. But the vision that excited executives has landed with a thud among consumers. “This one is for you, the believers . . . the people who’d rather be early than fashionably late,” Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, declared with a touch of snark last year as he unveiled its professional Meta Quest Pro headset. 

On cue, Apple rolled up late to the party this week with a disdainful glance at the early arrivals. Apple took its time. It has been working on virtual and augmented reality for seven years and the Vision Pro still lacks some of the design sleekness for which it is known: the headset is tethered to a separate battery. Yet those who tried it briefly were impressed by the high-definition clarity of its images and the thinking behind them. 

“You know there’s a screen in front of you, but it feels very real. I’ve never had that feeling before,” Francisco Jeronimo, an analyst for IDC Europe, told me. Leo Gebbie, of CCS Insight, said that he had tried dozens of headsets over years and “I can quite comfortably say this is the best experience I’ve ever had”. Apple has not let mere money get in the way. 

At seven times the price of Meta’s forthcoming Quest 3 headset, which is intended to do some of the same things, the Vision Pro is defiantly expensive. It crams 23mn pixels on two tiny screens, viewed through custom lenses, with photos and videos rendered by two Apple chips. This sounds like overkill, but one of the problems with virtual reality is that the technology has been inadequate. Instead of being transported seamlessly into a digital utopia, headset wearers have felt uncomfortable, disoriented and sometimes queasy. They have also looked ridiculous and been cut off from their surroundings. 

Not being in California for the launch this week, I popped over instead to Otherworld in east London, billed as “the world’s most immersive VR experience”. There, I wore an HTC Vive Pro headset, held two controllers and climbed into a pod to play various games, including Fruit Ninja, on an island metaverse. Others were enjoying themselves but my main sensations after half an hour were of motion sickness and an urge to escape outside. 

Apple has tried to conquer the first problem, common among headsets, by rendering the images fast enough that there is not a noticeable lag, and thus less nausea. But there is a deeper difficulty with virtual reality: the idea of the metaverse itself. No matter how enthusiastic Zuckerberg and others get about turning us into cartoons to spend hours in virtual worlds, it remains unconvincing apart from for gaming.

By the way, how far ahead is Apple with regard to spatial computing? Four data points:

• 5,000 patents on one device;
• introduces it a year before it will be released;
• develops a brand new series of chips for spatial computing: RTSPs
• will be using 3nm technology before most competitors even get to 5nm

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44904B. 

I'm not sure if I've ever seen this before: not one well coming off confidential list in the next week with initial production data being reported.

The wells:

• 39304, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 9-6H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 39398, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H, Hebron, no production data,
• 39303, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 8-6H, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38633, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-2H, Lone Butte, no production data,
• 39397, conf, Krakken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 3H, Hebron, no production data,
• 39302, conf, CLR, Skachenko Federal 10-31H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 39471, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Kubik Trust 3-18-19H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, no production data,
• 39396, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H, Hebron, no production data,
• 39215, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-3H, Lone Butte, no production data,
• 39301, conf, CLR, Skachenko Federal 9-31H, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38925, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Scott 4-7-6H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, no production data,
• 39259, conf, Stephens Williston LLC DBA SEG Williston, Greenbrier 15591W-0211-7HSL, Stanley, no production data,
• 39300, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 8-31H1, Jim Creek, no production data,

 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 11, 2023

Locator: 44903B.

Wednesday, June 21, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
39304, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 9-6H1,

Tuesday, June 20, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.

Monday, June 19, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
None.

Sunday, June 18, 2023: 36 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 399 for the year
39398, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H,
39303, conf, CLR, Meadowlark FIU 8-6H,

Saturday, June 17, 2023: 34 for the month; 142 for the quarter, 397 for the year
38633, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-2H,

Friday, June 16, 2023: 33 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 396 for the year
39397, conf, Krakken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 3H,

Thursday, June 15, 2023: 32 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 395 for the year
39302, conf, CLR, Skachenko Federal 10-31H1,

Wednesday, June 14, 2023: 31 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 394 for the year
39471, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Kubik Trust 3-18-19H-143-95L,
39396, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H,
39215, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-3H,

Tuesday, June 13, 2023: 28 for the month; 136 for the quarter, 391 for the year
39301, conf, CLR, Skachenko Federal 9-31H,
38925, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Scott 4-7-6H-143-95L,

Monday, June 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 134 for the quarter, 389 for the year
39259, conf, Stephens Williston LLC DBA SEG Williston, Greenbrier 15591W-0211-7HSL,

Sunday, June 11, 2023: 25 for the month; 133 for the quarter, 388 for the year
39300, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 8-31H1,

Saturday, June 10, 2023: 24 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 387 for the year
39258, conf, Stephens Williston LLC DBA SEG Williston, Greenbrier 15591W-0211-6H,