Monday, June 10, 2024

And Despite All The Distractions -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47998DUOLINGO.

I reached the pinnacle over at Duolingo (Spanish) -- well, sort of. And it will last barely a day.

I reached #1 in the "Amethyst League." 

This October, 2024, I will have four years of not missing one day of Duolingo from the day Sophia and I started, if I keep my current streak going.  

WWDC -- 2024

Locator: 47997APPLE.

This is where everything coming out of Apple's WWDC will be tracked. This event was truly revolutionary. It was the real deal. It was huge.

Tech is tracked here.

 *******************************
WWDC 2024

June 11, 2024: holy mackerel -- being reported after market close, Elon Musk will drop suit against Sam Altman, OpenAI. Link here.

June 11, 2024: holy mackerel -- AAPL surges. Hits all-time high. Trades well above $200.

June 10, 2024:

  • Fireworks: duel of the Titans. Apple ensnared in spat between Elon Musk and OopenAI, link to Barron's.
  • OpenAI: OpenAI hires new CFO and product chief, announces Apple deal to integrate ChatGPT
    • new finance chief, ex-CEO of Nextdoor; former CFO of Square
    • the agreement to include a ChatGPT-Siri integration
  • Sam Altman: just "what is" the relationship between Tim Cook / Sam Altman and Apple / OpenAI all about? Can Apple thread the needle when it comes to "privacy" and Elon Musk's assertions?
  • M4: I'm waiting for the book. The "M4 story" must be amazing. Absolutely amazing.
  • Apple calculator: every engineer and every engineering student is going to buy an M4 iPad.  This was the "wow" moment!

  • Apple WWDC: I have no problem with AAPL's volatility today, but listening to the comments by the analysts, I'm wondering if they watched the whole presentation. Live blog.
  • Everything Apple killed today: link here. I saw the same thing in real time. This was simply amazing. A lot of folks are going to "jump ship" to join Apple. 
  • Not addressed: FinTech. Actually so much not addressed, and they still took 90 minutes to present what they did. 

Everything Apple killed today (see thread linked above):

  • Grammarly
  • Midjourney (maybe)
  • every calculator app
  • all competitors for 1Password (maybe even them
  • all those Ai translator demos
  • Humane
  • Rabbit
  • Athlytics with their Apple Watch improvements
  • AllTrails
  • Magnet (tiles -- wow)
  • Bezel and other mirroring apps
  • basically every ChatGPT wrapper app
  • possibly Suhail's Playground
  • DeepL
  • PayPal
  • Otter

***********************
Earlier Today During The Keynote Presentation

Locator: 47995TECH.

Updates

Later, 2:15 p.m. CDT: for the record, my wife is non-plussed. She doesn't trust anyone. 

Later, 1:44 p.m. CDT: presentation ends. AAPL shares down $3.20; down 1.63%. That's fine. Typical. Didn't test $190 (at least not yet) which was the big fear.

Later, 1:43 p.m. CDT: looks like Tim is finishing up. Apple Intelligence is the new big "feature." Big partner: OpenAI / ChatGPT.

Later, 1:42 p.m. CDT: Siri will use ChatGPT / OpenIA (with your permission) to do whatever ChatGPT already does --- without opening a ChatGPT account. Current ChatGPT subscribers will have access to their current ChatGPT account. Everybody wins. This is a biggie. I've talked about it before. Apple Intelligence. Personal intelligence and absolutely private. iPad Pro, as well as new iOS for the Mac and OS for the iPhone.

Later, 1:31 p.m. CDT: Holy mackerel -- now at the one-hour-thirty-one-minute mark.

Later, 1:24 p.m. CDT: AAPL shares down almost 2%; typical for all Apple presentations. Comments later. Again, this suggests analysts don't understand the "purpose" of the WWDC.

Later, 1:03 p.m. CDT: huge updates. Calculator. iPhone mirroring. Notes. Wow. Buries "Grammarly." Wow, wow, wow -- Apple took the very opposite "view" of Microsoft's "Backlash" app. Amazing. The divergence. Private cloud compute! A brand new standard for privacy. Just the opposite of Microsoft's "Backlash." Holy mackerel, going long. Well past the one-hour mark and now really getting exciting.

Original Post

Everything in the market is now becoming personal: Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Huang Jensen, Sam Altman -- 

... Tim Cook knows that -- not as good a marketer as Steve Jobs but ... where Steve Jobs refused to share the stage with anyone, Tim Cook knows the value of partnerships ....

So, the betting: Sam Altman showing up on stage today:

__ no, won't happen
__ yes, will happen within 15 minutes
__ yes, will happen but will come later in the presentation

*******************************
Also, Earlier Today

Locator: 47994TECH.

Updates

Later, 3:00 p.m. CDT: how big is this! AAPL is down three or four dollars today and yet the S&P 500 is going to close at a record high ... and that close will be comfortably greater than the previous high ... closing at 5,361 vs 5,344 previously.  NASDAQ also closed at a record high.  The Dow did not hit a new 52-week high, but it did close in the green. So, all three major indices closed higher today, and two set new 52-week highs.

Later, 2:59 p.m. CDT: it's now easy to decide between Microsoft AI and Apple AI for those concerned about privacy and ease of use.

**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

A Reminder -- This Is Not An Investing Site -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47996FED.

Best quote so far today: "The Fed is beginning to 'overstay' its welcome. Time to move (on)."

Apple WWDC: I have no problem with AAPL's volatility today, but listening to the comments by the analysts, I'm wondering if they watched the whole presentation. Live blog.

AVGO: after the close today --

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.08.

Active rigs: 34.

Three new permits, #40820 - #40822, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hunt Oil (2); CLR
  • Fields: Parshall (Mountrail); Patent Gate (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Hunt has permits for two Oakland wells, NWNW 29-154-89, 
      • both to be sited 325 FNL with one 410 FWL and one 440 FWL (only 30' of separation -- amazing)
    • CLR has a permit for a Bjarne well, NWne 29-151-100, 
      • to be sited 385 FNL and 1897 FEL;

****************************************************
Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

If Sam Altman Shows Up On Stage Today -- It's A Game-Changer -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47995TECH.

Updates

Later, 2:15 p.m. CDT: for the record, my wife is non-plussed. She doesn't trust anyone. 

Later, 1:44 p.m. CDT: presentation ends. AAPL shares down $3.20; down 1.63%. That's fine. Typical. Didn't test $190 (at least not yet) which was the big fear.

Later, 1:43 p.m. CDT: looks like Tim is finishing up. Apple Intelligence is the new big "feature." Big partner: OpenAI / ChatGPT.

Later, 1:42 p.m. CDT: Siri will use ChatGPT / OpenIA (with your permission) to do whatever ChatGPT already does --- without opening a ChatGPT account. Current ChatGPT subscribers will have access to their current ChatGPT account. Everybody wins. This is a biggie. I've talked about it before. Apple Intelligence. Personal intelligence and absolutely private. iPad Pro, as well as new iOS for the Mac and OS for the iPhone.

Later, 1:31 p.m. CDT: Holy mackerel -- now at the one-hour-thirty-one-minute mark.

Later, 1:24 p.m. CDT: AAPL shares down almost 2%; typical for all Apple presentations. Comments later. Again, this suggests analysts don't understand the "purpose" of the WWDC.

Later, 1:03 p.m. CDT: huge updates. Calculator. iPhone mirroring. Notes. Wow. Buries "Grammarly." Wow, wow, wow -- Apple took the very opposite "view" of Microsoft's "Backlash" app. Amazing. The divergence. Private cloud compute! A brand new standard for privacy. Just the opposite of Microsoft's "Backlash." Holy mackerel, going long. Well past the one-hour mark and now really getting exciting.

Original Post

Everything in the market is now becoming personal: Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Huang Jensen, Sam Altman -- 

... Tim Cook knows that -- not as good a marketer as Steve Jobs but ... where Steve Jobs refused to share the stage with anyone, Tim Cook knows the value of partnerships ....

So, the betting: Sam Altman showing up on stage today:

__ no, won't happen
__ yes, will happen within 15 minutes
__ yes, will happen but will come later in the presentation

**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

WWDC Day -- Investor's Look At Tech -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47994TECH.

Updates

Later, 8:43 p.m. CDT: link here.

Later, 3:00 p.m. CDT: how big is this! AAPL is down three or four dollars today and yet the S&P 500 is going to close at a record high ... and that close will be comfortably greater than the previous high ... closing at 5,361 vs 5,344 previously.  NASDAQ also closed at a record high.  The Dow did not hit a new 52-week high, but it did close in the green. So, all three major indices closed higher today, and two set new 52-week highs.

Later, 2:59 p.m. CDT: it's now easy to decide between Microsoft AI and Apple AI for those concerned about privacy and ease of use.

Original Post 

US equity markets are oscillating around the flat line, although NASDAQ's "beam" is shallow, up and to the right. Dow 30 down a bit.

Among tech stocks: AAPL is down slightly ahead of WWDC. When AAPL is down, most other tech stocks also down. Not true today.

CRWD: CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is an American cybersecurity technology company based in Austin, Texas. It provides cloud workload and endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyberattack response services. Wikipedia

But look at this:

  • AVGO: at a 52-week high
  • CRWD: up 10% in early morning trade -- a Josh favorite
  • QCOM: up over 3%:
  • MU: very much a niche player; bread-and-butter among tech companies: up over 3%
  • ORCL: green, but flat, if that makes sense
  • INTC: down, but pretty much flat
  • CSCO: down, but pretty much flat
  • SNOW: down over 2%
  • AMD: down almost 3%

Hyperscalers: link here.

  • Amazon Web Services
  • Microsoft Azure
  • Google Cloud Platform
  • IBM Cloud
  • Oracle

Legacy:

  • BRK-B: red, but pretty much flat

Energy:

  • CVX: up over 1%
  • CHRD: up over 2%; trending toward to 3% on the upside
  • DVN: disappointing but at least it's green today
  • OKE: up over 1%

Microsoft: it looks like Microsoft's "AI screenshots" app needs to be renamed: "Backlash."

  • this is clearly a disaster and no one will use it;
  • at least no one who understands what this is all about
  • can you imagine that you can't delete anything you've ever seen on your monitor -- the only place all that data can be stored is in the cloud.

************************
Why I Will Upgrade My iPhone And/Or iPad

Two words: the camera.

**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Beginning To Understand Tim Cook's / Apple's Strategic Path -- CPU-GPU-NPU-DSP -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47993TECH.

Note
: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.

Note: in all my notes, I miss facts, factoids, memes and opinions -- it is often hard to separate one from others; and, I seldom point out facts vs opinions. In other words, everything I post needs to be fact-checked. 

 Chips, semiconductorlink here.

********************************
M4

M4 launch, May 20, 2024 -- today we'll see.


Tom's Hardware, May 14, 2024 -- today we'll see. 




****************************
Cores

Intel CPUs with P cores and E cores, March 24, 2023. A forum. Nice background for early discussion. 
  • One comment, from an individual who doesn't get it: 
E Cores are actually quite powerful by themselves. Even if the processors only had E Cores, they would still perform nicely and powerfully. Intel are adding up E Cores so that the total Power Usage and heat dispersion of said generations of CPUs are lowered down, while at the same time the number of Cores is high. If we had 24 P Cores instead of 8 P and 16 E Cores, the power draw and temperatures would increase dramatically, so the P cores would have to be downclocked in order that the processor outputs the same heat and intakes the same amount of electricity as in the scenario with 8 P Cores at a much higher frequency and 16 E Cores at a lower one. 
E Cores are quite powerful and give out the possibility for more cores with an overall lesser effect on power draw and heat dispersion. If there were no E Cores and Intel wanted there to be P Cores only, they'd have to decrease the clocks of the P Cores significantly in order to obtain the same specifications (in regards to TDP and temperature) they would with the addition of E Cores (differing from P Cores in the margins they leave out for heat and power consumption by running at lower speeds and harboring a pertinent architecture).

  • Raptor Lake = 13th gen Core, Alder Lake = 12th gen Core, Rocket Lake = 11th gen Core, Comet Lake = 10th gen Core.
Comment: the above links helped me understand what Apple / Tim Cook are doing with regard to M4. 

Apple M-series, wiki:
  • M1: revolutionary.
  • M2; evolutionary.
  • M3: evolutionary.
  • M4: revolutionary.
Apple M4 is an ARM-based system on a chip (SoC) designed by Apple Inc., part of the Apple silicon series, including a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), a neural processing unit (NPU), and a digital signal processor (DSP). 
It was introduced in May 2024 for the iPad Pro (M4), and is the fourth generation of the M series Apple Silicon architecture, succeeding the Apple M3. 
According to Apple, the M4 SoC's Neural Engine is capable of 38 trillion operations per second, "which is 60x faster than Apple’s first Neural Engine in the A11 Bionic chip." 
The SoC is built upon a 3-nanometer process, and features 3 or 4 performance cores, 6 efficiency cores, and 10 graphics processing cores. [Note: I am unaware of any other "brand-name/big-name building 3-nanometer chips."]
The M4 is the world's fastest consumer SoC in single core performance according to the Geekbench benchmarking suite, (beating Apple's M3 Max and Intel's Core i9 desktop CPUs), and rivals Apple's M3 Pro desktop CPU in multi-core performance. [Note: emphasis on CPU -- so yesterday.]
It is the first iPad SoC to support AV1 decode, and has a new display controller that Apple claims is necessary to support the iPad Pro (7th generation)'s Tandem OLED display. 
It is rumored the Apple M4 is Apple's first SoC which uses the ARMv9 architecture for its CPU cores, ARMv9.4 to be specific.
It also could support Arm's SME2 extension, which was announced in 2022 and is a superset of SME and SVE2, to accelerate matrix operations. This is likely the cause of the majority of the estimated 7.6% Instructions Per Cycle (IPC) uplift from M3 Max, which would only be 3.0% without the new matrix extensions.

Posted previously, if Apple's market cap it $3 trillion, one can look at this like this:

  • hardware: $1 trillion; predominantly iPhone; Apple is struggling how to balance laptop vs tablet; desktop targets "Hollywood" as well as US government intel agencies;
    • generally, analysts -- publicly -- only focus on iPhones;
  • services: $1 trillion; ecosystem unparalleled; in fact, the "heat sheet" shows only one consumer electronic, Apple
  • Apple Silicon: chip company; partnered / joined at the hip with TSM
  • playing the long game
  • seems to have accelerated push from M1 to M4
  • partnership with Google, OpenAI 

This may be a good time to look at Open AI again.



***********************************
Data Centers

This is incredibly important. Do this. Google: apple acdc.

See the first hit. It's not often that a "generic" search or "specific" search like apple acdc would deliver this hit. This is incredible remarkable.


***********************************
Challenge

Incredibly difficult for Tim Cook to articulate all of this. Apple is playing the long game.

I think it's important to remember the history of Steve Jobs / Apple and Microsoft / Xbox. 

One link here. Additional links pending.

Some suggest Elon Musk is juggling too many balls: Tesla, X, SpaceX, the Boring Company, etc.

One could argue that Apple / Tim Cook is in that same bind:
  • long game / short game
  • research / marketing
  • music / gaming
  • sports / movies
  • more partners / fewer partners
Advantage? Apple.
  • the 3-nm M4 bridges all of Apple's interests and strategic plans.
    • the 3-nm M4 has set the bar for the industry
    • among everything else, what folks seem to want most in mobile environment: at least a full-day without re-charging
    • remember years ago -- all that emphasis on wireless (NFC) charging? 
    • that research continues, but Jobs / Cook / Apple went a different route while waiting for NFC charging to be a real deal
Still out there, the pop-up quiz for the day: the person, place or thing that is buying the most Nvidia blades. Hint: this person, place or thing has very deep pockets. In fact, "it" has deeper pockets than one can imagine.

Spaceholder.
**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Pop-Up Quiz -- Quick! #1 Buyer Of Nvidia Blades? June 10, 2024

Locator: 47992TECH.

What person, place, or thing is the #1 buyer of Nvidia blades? 

Government agencies, and particularly spy agencies and law enforcement, for example, in the USA:

  • NSA (much of its budget is classified)
  • DOD (much of its budget is classified)
  • FBI

**************************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

 *****************************
Showboat

WTI Green Today -- Petro-Hunt's Burian Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- June 10, 2024

Locator: 47991B.

WTI: green today! $76.39.

Tuesday, June 11, 2024: 60 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 323 for the year
39677, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14A-23-3H,

Monday, June 10, 2024: 59 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 322 for the year
None.

Sunday, June 9, 2024: 59 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 322 for the year
39676, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14B-23-2H,

Saturday, June 8, 2024: 58 for the month; 122 for the quarter, 321 for the year
38055, conf, Oasis, Wood Federal 5498 12-25 2BX, 

RBN Energy: Phillips 66, Trafigura continue pursuit of a deepwater port near Corpus Christi.

Bluewater Texas, proposed by a 50/50 joint venture (JV) of Phillips 66 (P66) and commodity trading giant Trafigura, is in a unique position in the race to construct a deepwater crude oil export facility along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Of the four marketed deepwater proposals, Bluewater is the only project in the export-centric Corpus Christi market. It is also the only one in the group that does not include an offshore platform in its scope. In today’s RBN blog, we will explore these and other differences that set Bluewater apart. 

Flashback: from late 2022 -- that's how long it's been since Driftwood has been mentioned.

If you’re thinking, “Hey, you skipped Part 3,” there’s a reason for that. That blog covered Tellurian’s controversial Driftwood LNG, which at the time had already begun construction despite not having secured full financing. Since then, Tellurian and Driftwood publicly suffered a major setback after losing two of the project’s three offtakers and rescinding a bond offering due to lack of interest. But Tellurian’s drama has more to do with its project structure than the wider LNG market environment, and other projects continue to see support and make progress toward FID, including the project we’re looking at today, Port Arthur, which in the past few months has leap-frogged several other projects in development and is closing in on FID in the next few months. 

Google search today: