Saturday, February 28, 2026

AI Fear: Job / Worker Displacement -- Oh, Give Me A Break -- February 28, 2026

Locator: 50094AI.

Tag: unauthorized immigrant population illegal immigrants worker displacement AI job displacement 

It gets tedious.

The number one fear that folks have about AI: job / worker displacement.

"No one talked about job / worker displacement under the Biden administration. 

Link here

The denominator: unauthorized immigrant population, trend and actual numbers, in the four years of the Biden administration:


 

The numerator, AI displacement

The Annual BRK Letter Has Been Posted -- February 28, 2026

Locator: 50093BRK.

Updates

March 2, 2026: Yes, Virginia -- it was a disaster. Link here to Barron's. Goodwill impairment.

Original Post 

Summary:

Updates

Later, 3:45 p.m. CT: link here. Insurance profits fall; OXY writedown. Still considered the GOAT. Oh ,give me a break.

Original Post 

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. This blog is not meant for readers other than my extended family, but I post the blog without restrictions because this is the fastest way I can get information to my extended family members. This is not an investment site. See blog's disclaimer. Please feel free to fact check. Comments are heavily moderated. 

The letter is at this link: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2025ltr.pdf

It's amazing how every news site, it seems, works hard NOT to link to the actual newsletter. Even Google Gemini failed. Amazing. 

Link here

Link here

Link here

Insane: the one data point most pundits -- based on scrolling through x -- are interested in -- the amount of cash being held by BRK.

My only takeaway: for most people, TLDR; most people will read the CNBC summary; impossible to put a dollar value on BRK-B. 

I have no idea what BRK-B is any more except as a mediocre ETF/mutual fund with a cash-dominated mentality, with focus on dividends paid to the company. Except for optional capital gains (share price), the average retail investor sees no tangible financial benefits. 

Over the past year, one could have done much better in MDU and MDU pays a dividend:


I have a rolling 30-year-plus-one-day horizon and I re-evaluate strategically on a yearly basis, usually around the first of the year through April 15th; and, I re-evaluate tactically every three months.

For the Robinhood crowd, BRK-B is no longer FOMO or MOJO.

  • Strategic
    • major sectors for the next year 
    • overall portfolio management
    • I try not to add new tickers to my portfolio
    • two years ago, I pivoted to tech
      • large cap, US stocks; 
      • dividends are incredibly important but not required;
      • park money in SCHD, SCHB, SCHG
    • this year, could start to tiptoe into nuclear (see below, tactical)
    • CSX was a surprise this year (strategic and tactical opportunity) 
  • Tactical:
    • where to invest new money every three quarters 
    • new money is mostly dividends and RMDs
    • 50% of my annual dividends are paid in the last month of each quarter
    • US large cap within tech only with significant discounts to the overall tech market
    • Amazon is probably the best example
    • I have an "accidental" position in BWXT -- a spin-off of a spin-off of an oil service company from many, many years ago; it's intriguing, but have never added money to this position.  
    • CSX was a surprise this past year (new money quarterly?)

**********************************
Disclaimer 
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   
  • A Closer Look At The Proposed Oasis Dunlin Wells -- Enget Lake -- February 28, 2026

    Locator: 50092DUNLIN.

    Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. This blog is not meant for readers other than my extended family, but I post the blog without restrictions because this is the fastest way I can get information to my extended family members. This is not an investment site. See blog's disclaimer. Please feel free to fact check. Comments are heavily moderated.

    From the daily activity report, Friday, February 28, 2026: link here.

    Five new permits, #42736 - #42740, inclusive:

    • Operator: Oasis
    • Field: Enget Lake (Mountrail County)
    • Comments:
      • Oasis has permits for five Dunlin 5892 wells, NWSW 33-158-92, 
        • to be sited 2413 / 2414 FSL and 583 / 715 FWL.

    The permits for the five new Dunlin 5892 wells

    • 31-33 2B: four sections, 2560-acre spacing unit:
      • 35 / 36-158-93; and,
      • 31 / 32 -158-92
    • 31-33 3B: same four sections
    • 31-33 4B: same four sections
    • 31-33 5B: same four sections
    • 31-33 6BX: six sections, 3840-acre spacing unit -- 
      • 35 / 36 - 158-93;
      • 31 / 32 -158-92;
      • 1 / 2 - 157-93; and,
      • 5 / 6-157-92.  

     **************************************
    History Of This Area And New Well

    The well of interest. Older wells in this area have been mediocre at best. But look at recent well just completed:

    • 41010, 1049, Oasis, Rystedt 5892 31-28 2B, Enget Lake (east of Tioga), t3/25; cum 270K; 

    Data

    • spud: November 2, 2024
    • TD reached: November 14, 2024
    • total lateral depth of 30,565' 
    • vertical, KOP: upper Lodgepole at 9,056' on November 6, 2024  (about one day)
    • lateral, 30,565' plus vertical, 9,056' = 39,621'
    • lateral began November 9, 2024; TD reached November 14, 2024 (five days)

    Legal description and spacing

    • laydown four-section spacing, 2560-acre spacing
    • super-long lateral
    • sections 29 / 30 - 158 - 92
    • sections 25 / 26 - 158 - 93
    • lateral runs east to west

    Results:

    • IP: 1,049 bbls; t3/25; 
    • Stimulation: 54 stages; volume: 433,693 bbls; lbs proppant not stated on well completion form;
    • Three Forks, first bench (B1).
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN12-2025311531215724238652179520913108
    BAKKEN11-2025301816417360261152512724005256
    BAKKEN10-2025301844918425289761892117984128
    BAKKEN9-202526157311576727935192831835364
    BAKKEN8-2025312605326035406803233531056320
    BAKKEN7-2025313623936604538674246040340640
    BAKKEN6-20253042434421816642141973384371856
    BAKKEN5-20253133710338017230931787258443904
    BAKKEN4-20253031245316177777729539229764470
    BAKKEN3-202531324193186311435829896223654720
    BAKKEN2-20251292027706506

    Maps:

    1. Note four-section laydown lateral! This pad (the one circled) is to the north of the proposed Dunlin / Grove pad to the south.

    In the map above, the completed / producing four-section lateral: #41010, to the north of the Dunlin/Grove well pad to the south.

    2. Look how far east these new wells will be:

    3. Three pads:

    4. The Dunlin / Grove wells:

    Operation Epic Fury -- February 28, 2026

    Locator: 50091IRAN.

    Updates

    Day 3 -- March 2, 2026 

    Day 2 -- March 1, 2026:

    • from a military point of view, the biggest US concern is adequate land-based bombers
      • so far only the B-2 has been involved
        • the British refusing US to use Diego Garcia is major detriment to US war-fighting capabilities -- Trump won't take this well -- our closest ally (?) (Britain) denying use of Diego Garcia;
        • we all know how this war will play out; no access to Diego Garcia will simply drag the war out but won't alter outcome 
      • could US base B-52s out of Israel; Saudi Arabia? 
      • this is not air superiority; this is air dominance -- huge difference; 
    • Israel says it has complete freedom of the airspace 
    • havoc in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's neighbors won't appreciate this
      • Iran has become a pariah among its Mideast neighbors
    • WTI: up almost 5%; up $3.24; trading at $70;
    • we're starting to hear from Trump himself his end-game
      • Iran's navy is to be destroyed according to Trump; allies have already taken out Iran's navy headquarters; several Iranian ships have been sunk; 
      • suffice to say: Iran's navy is neutralized 
    • as long as Iran doesn't have a new leader and / or hasn't formed a new government, Trump and Netanyahu have no one with whom to negotiate -- by Friday, March 6, 2026, Iran will announce new leadership -- whether that leadership is seen as legitimate or not is another question.
      • the two allies (Trump and Netanyahu) are joined at the hip 
    • Trump has already prepared the US for a four-week war;
    • War Powers Act: purely theatrics and a great fund-raising opportunity for both parties.  

    March 1, 2026: Tehran -- target-rich environment against military with no air defense;

    • one assumes complete loss of Iranian military command and control; 
    • one assume Iranian military units working without coordination
    • Sunday, today, should provide significant update on Iran's capabilities
    • Iran said Sunday would be huge counter-attack and revenge for Khamenei's death
      • it's now well into Sunday, and no headlines suggesting Iran's counter-attack is amounting to much (~ 1:00 p.m. local time Tehran)

    Later, 7:35 p.m. CT: imagine how this skirmish would be going if Iran had nuclear weapons.

    Later, 7:33 p.m. CT: time to dust off the Abraham Accords

    Later, 6:47 p.m. CT: doesn't it feel like this war is already over? Time for Israel to finish it off. US to start drawing down. Truly amazing. It started earlier this morning and it's already over? It will be interesting if missiles stop launching by Monday. Let the anti-Trumps start debating the War Powers Act. 

    Later, 4:53 p.m. CT: this was well done. Trump did not kill Khamenei. That was 100% Netanyahu.

    Later, 3:20 p.m. CT: there are reports that the attack that killed Ali Khamenei also killed upwards of 40 (maybe more) other senior leaders. If accurate, it appears that the decision for the H-Hour to be at daybreak was brilliant.  

    Later, 3:00 p.m. CT: my hunch is that there will be "US boots on the ground." 

    Not necessarily US military. But the US will demand that a US-led "UN-like" team will have full access to all of Iran: military sites; uranium-enrichment sites; universities; day-care centers, and Somali Learing Centers, if any. He could very likely pattern "what comes next" after the Gaza Board of Peace, led by Saudi Arabia or the UAE. He's not going to let the IRGC to return in some other form. Maybe Marco Rubio can take over as interim leader of Iran.

    Later, 2:00 p.m. CT: Iranian leadership has been eliminated. This "skirmish" will be over before US Congress has opportunity to start debate on "war powers." 

    a) first thing that happens: internal skirmish who takes over -- remember our own "I'm in charge here." -- March 30, 1981 -- Reagan assassination attempt -- "I'm in charge here," Alexander Haig. "No, you're not." 

    b) problem: with whom does Israel and / or the US negotiate? Until someone credible comes forward with enough gravitas to take charge, there is no one with whom to negotiate -- allows a more free-willing Israel; Hegseth will want to move with all Godspeed; Trump will want to remain constrained. 

    Later, 10:01 a.m. CT: strikes will last "several" days.

    • most important metric: tracking number of Iranian missile strikes; 
      • one would expect a marked crescendo lasting two days and then a precipitous decrescendo starting on day three or four 

    Original Post 
    March 28, 2026 -- Day 1 

    Joint Israeli-American Operation

    • Operation Epic Fury
    • Operation Roaring Lion 

    Goal:

    • Operation Roaring Lion: regime change
    • Operation Epic Fury: more nuanced 

    Israel launches first, followed closely by US, as Iran responds with missiles targeted across the Mideast.

    Timing:

    • D-Day: Saturday, February 28, 2026
    • H-Hour: 0100 hrs ET; ~ 0900 hrs Tehran 
      • Tehran is currently 8.5 hours / 7.5 hours ahead of Washington, DC; time time occurs in March. 

    President to address nation Saturday morning

    Surprising H-Hour: daylight

    • to catch Iran off-guard; expecting operation to begin at night

    Immediate targets:

    • Iran's civilian leadership including Khameini's Palace
    • some oil facilities
    • Iran's air defense

    Opening skirmish: very restrained 

    • most notable: civilian leadership targeted
    • biggest strategic mistake: Iran launching missiles into several Mideast countries
    • London - Washington discussing Diego Garcia
      • controlled by London; currently denies US access to Diego Garcia for Operation Epic Fury
      • Diego Garcia talks may be most important non-kinetic event to follow