If You LIke National Anthems -- August 28, 2019

A reader alerted me to this. I love it! Spend some time watching it. I find it absolutely fascinating.

Recession Is Right Around The Corner; Record US Gasoline Demand Will Compete For Top Story Of The Year -- August 28, 2019

From the EIA today:

Since at least 1994, Americans have been told to use less gasoline; Tesla has become a huge corporation; and, Algore is still not president. Thank goodness.

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Flight To Safety 

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Condolences

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Restaurant Review 

HG SPLY Company, Trophy Club, TX. Sports bar. 44,000 square feet.

1 - 5 stars scale: 2 stars.

I don't understand the "HG" concept: "hunter-gatherer."

Supposedly all organic food.

Bowl of bison chili: $10.

No cheddar cheese, no crackers.

Moscow mule: $10. Watery, thin.

May liked the restaurant. I wouldn't go back.

MRO With Six New Permits -- August 28, 2019

Active rigs:

$55.86	8/28/2019	08/28/2018	08/28/2017	08/28/2016	08/28/2015
Active Rigs	62	61	55	30	76

Six new wells, #36918 - #36923, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
• Comments: MRO has permits for a multi-named 6-well pad in section 8-151-93 (Kolbo USA; Klemstead USA; Adonijah USA; Vickall USA; Lang USA; and, Thorson USA); see graphic below;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 30553, 1,349, CLR, Fjorven Federal 5-21H1, Brooklyn, t819; cum --; the amazing Brooklyn oil field is tracked here;

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MRO: Six New Permits

Minnesota Ethanol Plant To Close After 25 Years -- Even With Subsidies, Grants, Advocates, And Saving The World -- Will Close -- August 28, 2019

I feel bad for the employees.

Ethanol plants have never made sense to me. The history of ethanol plants in the US is interesting.

Burning food to make ICE fuel despite a glut of fossil fuel.

From KEYC, with the link sent to me by Don:

The Corn Plus ethanol plant in Winnebago, MN, is reportedly shutting down. The plant will shut down as the industry battles low commodities prices. Production has been going well but the lack of a viable export market has stalled profit.

The plant has been in operation for 25 years, started in 1994.

Link here:

I thought springtime flooding was driving the price of corn up. At "363" today, corn appears to be near record lows, at least since 2013, or at least not unreasonably out of line. Don't you just love mainstream media? I am impressed with the American farmer, US logistics, and the free market capitalism system.

Today's price: looks to be "363" today.

Link here: 

EV Sales For Month Of July, 2019

Did I forget to post this data earlier this month? I honesty don't remember.

EV sales for July, 2019.

Tesla: all three models -- sales down significantly, month-over-month
Model 3: 13,450, down from 21,225 the month before (a 37% decline)
Model S: 975, down from 1,750 the month before (a 44% decline)
Model X: 1,225, down from 2,725 the month before (a 55% decline)

Chevy Bolt: 985, down from 1,659 the month before (a 41% decline)

Nissan Leaf: 938, down from 1,156 the month before (a 19% decline)

But those numbers for Tesla are shocking. No pun intended.

Either Tesla has a waiting list or it doesn't. I thought it had a waiting list.

If Tesla has a waiting list, there's a problem with manufacturing or deliveries.

If Tesla has no waiting list, then sales dropped off significantly, probably starting back in May, 2019, or thereabouts.

The Tesla sales in June are so out of line with those in May one has to ask, "what's going on?" I assume a contributor over at SeekingAlpha already addressed this.

The Irony Of It All -- August 28, 2019

Note: we've been through this before -- see this note from July 30, 2019.

The best I can do right now with this; will try to get a better link later.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ovRT-wBM8jgJ:https://www.netl.doe.gov/sites/default/files/netl-file/J-Sorenson-Bakken.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

From 2017:

Oil production grew significantly from 0.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd in the Bakken petroleum system from 2009 to 2014. A large volume of associated gas (1.6 billion cubic feet per day) has also been produced with the oil. A substantial part (10%) of this produced gas is flared off because of the low natural gas price and limited infrastructure for gathering and transporting the gas from the well sites. Such a large scale of gas flaring not only wastes energy but also emits contaminants such as SOx, NOx, and CO2 to the atmosphere. Reduction of flaring and utilization of produced gas are important steps toward sustained development of the Bakken.

The potential for recycled gas enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is being investigated as a method of reducing flaring through utilization. However, large-scale gas flooding might be difficult for the Bakken because of the difference between the low-permeability matrix and the highly conductive hydraulic and natural fracture networks, which may lead to low sweep efficiency. Instead, this research by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) has aimed to investigate, through a series of laboratory experiments and numerical simulation activities, the potential to extract oil from the tight rocks by taking advantage of diffusion-based processes.

Oil and gas produced from Bakken wells were characterized, and the reservoir formation properties were analyzed based upon core samples. A series of oil extraction experiments with varying gas (solvent) compositions were conducted. The minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) of various produced gas components and oil was measured to determine the pressure required for effective extraction.

Based on the experimental results, a well-scale model was developed to simulate the performance of recycled gas EOR.

Results showed CO2 and produced Bakken gas to be miscible with the oil in reservoir conditions (5000 psi, 230°F).

The measured MMPs for pure CO2 and ethane with typical Bakken oil samples were 2528 and 1344 psi, respectively.

The presence of methane in the gas increased MMP, but miscibility was still achievable under reservoir conditions.

CO2 and ethane enabled extraction of most oil components from the rocks during a 24-hour experimental period, but methane exhibited strong molecular selectivity for light-end components.

Simulation results showed that a single-well CO2 and methane/ethane huff ‘n’ puff operation could increase cumulative oil production as much as 50% for the multistage fractured wells in the Bakken.

The results of this study clearly showed that produced Bakken gas could be effectively used for recycled gas EOR. Implementation of EOR may have potential to compensate for the production decline of Bakken wells while reducing the quantity of flared gas.

A reader sent a note some time ago mentioning "small molecules." Note the abstract above. "Small molecules.

CO2: a small molecule. 232 pm.

CH4: a small molecule.  200 pm.

H2O: 275 pm.

N2: 370 pm.

Kinetic diameters here.

There's some irony here -- something I alluded to earlier.

The analogy: volatile Bakken crude oil shipped by CBR. What did North Dakota do? Skimmed off the propane, put it in "approved" rail tank cars, and shipped the propane in unit trains to Mexico.

Now, use that flared methane to pump even more crude oil.

Faux environmentalists must be going nuts. 

Notes From All Over, Part 4 -- August 28, 2019

NASCAR: no longer the NASCAR I thought I knew.

The road to New Mexico: I posted this story earlier this morning -- almost the first story I posted today. It has legs. Now two more articles, all inter-connected.

• first, over at Bloomberg, which might have a paywall; if so, then,
• second, over at oilprice

From the first link:

New Mexico’s Lujan Grisham pushes an ambitious pro-environment agenda for an industry whose receipts dominate the state budget

From the second link:

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham took office with two climate-friendly pledges: to make New Mexico’s electricity emission-free by 2045, and to curb methane emissions from the oil and gas industry more substantially than they are being limited now.

However, the oil industry is one of the biggest revenue contributors to the state, and it’s a major job creator. Bloomberg’s Rachel Adams-Heard reports that people whose businesses depend on customers from the Permian are strongly opposed to any tighter methane regulations for fear their customers would go across the state border to Texas, where regulations are laxer.

The Governor is aware of the challenges, according to Adams-Heard: “It’s a juxtaposition for sure,” Lujan Grisham told her. “I think the trap for too many elected individuals around the country is that they’re asked by some constituent group to pick one, and I’ve said New Mexico is going to pick every single opportunity and then be responsible at the same time.”

This sounds like the attitude demonstrated by Alberta’s former Premier Rachel Notley, whose government tried to juggle emissions-cutting measures and support for the oil industry, which is vital for the province. The results of the latest vote suggested the NDP government had failed at the latter.

What the governor fails to realize that once a state pledges to be emission-free by 2045, that sets in motion all kinds of new bills, regulations, laws, attitudes, etc.

Good luck.

Happy feet:
Happy Feet, Elvis

Queen Approves Boris Johnson's Plan To Suspend Parliament -- Makes A No-Deal Brexit More Likely -- August 28, 2019

Link here.

Tea leaves:

• the queen is getting tired of waiting .... how long has this been going on? Five years?
• the queen wants to get Great Britain out in front of the "recession that is just around the corner"
• dithering is worse than even a "bad" Brexit deal; a non-deal is better than continued dithering; UK corporations unable to plan
• how many deadlines does one need?
• if the UK doesn't get it cone, the US will be seen either as a "banana republic" or another Italy

When was the last "suspension"?

This tradition was again carried out at the most recent dissolution, in May 2017. The last dissolution of Parliament was on 3 May 2017, to make way for the general election to be held on 8 June 2017. It dissolved after a two-thirds majority vote by the House of Commons, as required by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

To answer the other question:

Brexit (a portmanteau of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). 

Following a referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which 51.9 percent of those voting supported leaving the EU, the Government invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, starting a two-year process which was due to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March 2019.

That deadline has since been extended to 31 October 2019.

June 23, 2016: more than three years ago. This is something from a Charles Dickens' novel.

Summers, and especially the months of July and August, have always been slow, dull, boring ... but that all changed when Trump was elected president. LOL.

By the way, did anyone note the timing of this announcement by the Queen?

Let's do the timeline:

• Sunday, August 28, 2019: G-7 summit attendees start to fly in to Paris
• Monday morning, August 29, 2019: media talks about how Trump is ruining the process
• Monday afternoon, August 29, 2019: Trump having some interesting meetings and sidebars with G-7 summit attendees; ignores the party crasher from Iran
• Tuesday morning: President Trump tweets some great deals coming out of his private discussions from the G-7 summit
• Tuesday afternoon: the US media starts to talk about how great Trump did at the summit
• Tuesday tea (Greenwich standard time): the Queen is briefed by Boris regarding the G-7 conference
• Tuesday night (Greenwich standard time): the Queen's office prepares a memo for the Queen to sign
• Wednesday morning: the announcement that the Queen approves of Boris' plan to suspend Parliament
• Wednesday afternoon, scheduled: a congratulatory call from Trump to Boris

What could possibly be more apt than "Killer Queen"?  Just like Marie Antoinette. She's a killer. Dynamite with a laser beam. Guaranteed to blow your mind.

Killer Queen, Queen

Silver -- August 28, 2019

From Macrotrends:

Lookin' good.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- August 28, 2019

Regular readers know how much I've been talking about the DFW metroplex. Another little pearl, there are now five major financial centers all co-located just to the west of us:

• Fidelity
• Schwab
• Ameritrade
• Edward Jones, and, 
• now a fifth.

This is huge.

I don't know when they moved in. Maybe several years ago, but I never noticed them until now, when lumped in with the other four. The Schwab complex is getting all the attention right now. Original plan was for a complex for 3,000 employees (mostly IT), but while building the complex, plans increased to 5,000 employees. Some now suggest we could see 7,000 at the Schwab complex.

A hint: the fifth one used to have its headquarters in in the northeast? Now moved to Roanoke, TX, area.

The graphic:

The fifth financial center to join the group in the Roanoke, TX, area: Mercedes-Benz Financial Services.

From Fortune, January 8, 2015:

Mercedes-Benz’s U.S. headquarters will pull up stakes from outside of New York City, where it’s been for half a century, and relocate to a new building in Atlanta— mirroring recent moves southward by other foreign automakers in the U.S. In Paris, the French automaker Peugeot SA said it was closing its headquarters in the city and moving to the suburbs in a move to cut costs.

Last year, Toyota’s U.S. sales headquarters said it was closing its Torrance, Calif., offices and reopening in Plano, Texas.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report: "Colossal" Draw; WTI Surges -- August 28, 2019

After yesterday's API report, everyone is waiting with bated/baited breath for the EIA report due out at 9:30 a.m. CT. [Yes, "bated breath" is another phrase/idiom first used by Shakespeare -- at least first written down by Shakespeare.]

Link here. 

• US crude oil weekly draw: decreased by a whopping 10.0 millions
• WTI: $56.51, up $1.58; up almost 3%
• US crude oil inventory: 427.8 million bbls -- now at the five-year average for this time of year
• refinery operating capacity: at 95.2% operable capacity; near high end
• gasoline production: close to 11 million bbls/day; gasoline demand graph will be out later today
• for first time in a long time, jet fuel supplied was down compared with same four-week period last year 
• the EIA also reported a 2.1-million-barrel drop in gasoline inventories and a 2.1-million-barrel draw in distillate fuel inventories.
• buzz? Still waiting for stories; the stories still from yesterday's API data. Even CNBC isn't reporting it yet. CNBC: still preaching the "recession is right around the corner" story; that's still their headline story.

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9
Week 35	July 24, 2019	-10.8	445.1
Week 36	July 31, 2019	-8.5	436.5
Week 37	August 7, 2019	2.4	438.9
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 29	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 30	August 28, 2019	-100.0	-427.8

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- August 28, 2019

BP leaving Alaska. Link here.

Wow, wow, wow ... just as I predicted ... nuanced ... hinted at on the blog numerous times ... New Mexico ready to shut down "their" Permian .... link here. New tag: "Road_To_New_Mexico."  This will be re-posted later. How big can I make this graphic? "New Mexico officials claim they are not trying to stifle the industry." "Read my lips."

Heavy oil: more bad news for Canada.

Nigeria: another huge natural gas discovery. ENI on a roll: Eni also announced a gas and condensate discovery offshore Ghana, in May, 2019, and a gas discovery in the Nour prospect, offshore Egypt, in March, 2019.