Week 50: December 10 -- December 16, 2011

Tax bill to include Keystone XL language; president has 60 days to decide on construction

On track for 1,989 new permits in North Dakota for 2011

New Designations; 100,000 Bbl Wells in < 6 Months; Van Hook

NDIC Presentation: Managing Flaring

Whiting $800,00 building permit southeast of Belfield

Williston school enrollments soaring

Oil service trucks in New Salem, North Dakota

Chinese proppants

Hess getting its mojo back: another 6-well pad

Some nice Hess wells in Robinson Lake; and, three great East Nessen Hess wells

Canada withdraws from Kyoto Protocol

November, 2011: 510,000 bopd

WSJ article on the Bakken 

BakkenLink Pipeline scaled back because Keystone XL on hold

Seven (7) New Permits -- Another 100,000 Bbl-Well at Six Months -- Minimal Sand Frac --The Bakken, North Dakota, USA; December 15, 2011

Daily activity report, December 15, 2011 --

Seven (7) new permits --

• Operators: Dakota-3 (3), Whiting, OXY USA, North Plains, CLR
• Fields: Arnegard, Willmen, Van Hook, Truax, and Viking

That Arnegard field well is a Whiting well, right in the bull's eye of the Bakken.

Reported elsewhere were the wells released from the confidential list today. Three were not fracked/completed; they did not report an IP. The fracking backlog continues.

Two wells on DRL status reported IPs today, including another good Hess well:

• 19841, 930, Hess, Solberg 15-8H, Bakken, Williams County; t9/11; cum 135K 4/17;

Dakota-3 is using slightly different nomenclature in naming their wells; these three will be on the same pad (see this post for an update, ten years later):

• 22071, LOC-->conf-->drl (1/13) -- TATD, WPX/Dakota-3, State of ND 10-3HY, Van Hook
• 22072, 1,664, WPX/Dakota-3, State of ND 10-3HC, Van Hook, t5/13; cum 349K 3/17;
• 22073, 1,227, WPX/Dakota-3, State of ND 10-3HZ, Van Hook, t5/13; cum 290K 3/17;

Any history in that area? Yup:

• 18735, 1,936, Dakota-3, State of ND 10-3H, Van Hook, Bakken, s12/10; t4/11; cum 502K 3/17; 126K bbls in less than seven months; 25 stages; 282K pounds of sand

Note the amount of sand used in this frac: 282K (unless it's a typo); generally operators are using 2 - 4 million pounds of sand, with or without ceramics.

Wow, there are some good wells out there.

Cool -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- Open Skies -- The Three I's

Israel --> Iraq --> Iran

Well, this is cool.

With the departure of US troops in Iraq, Iraqi's air space is pretty much unprotected, unless one thinks the Iraqis have their air force up and running. Yeah, right.

From Israel's point of view, it has been told by the current US administration: "Hey, you're on your own."

It will be interesting to see if Iraq invites the US back in to provide some type of top cover for its new OPEN SKIES ad hoc policy.

“I would hope we would jump to defend Iraqi airspace,” said James Carafano, a military analyst at the Heritage Foundation. “These are the kinds of contingency plans that ought to be put in place.”

Let's see: the US exits Iraq because US-Iraq can't agree on immunity boundaries for any remaining security troops; Israel (a US ally?) attacks Iran (not a US ally) and Jim wants the US to "jump" to defend Iraqi airspace. Why?

And the Heritage Foundation is a conservative advocacy think tank.

The Bull's Eye, Bakken -- A Bit of Rambling -- Duperow Formation -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The Parshall oil field, back in 2007, got us all excited about the Bakken. Then, Whiting showed the potential of the Bakken with the Sanish oil field just to west of EOG's Parshall oil field.

The KOG acreage in the reservation was the next to take off, delayed a bit due to bureaucratic delays at the federal level. 2010. 

Then we had the BEXP breakout northwest of Williston. 2010-time frame if I remember.

Then, somewhat simultaneously, we had Whiting develop its southern ops.

In 2011, folks started talking about the Bakken "manufacturing" phase. It's my impression that if we are in the "manufacturing" phase, "we" are entering it in fits and starts. I'm still seeing a lot of "new," albeit de-risked, areas being targeted. For me the manufacturing phase will be here when we see nothing but multi-well pad permits, and the spectre of the EPA banning fracking is a distant memory. We are still getting mostly individual wells, including a fair number of wildcats; if you can believe that, this late in the Bakken boom, still getting wildcats. I see about six permits for wildcats in the Williston Basin every week, it seems. 

Over the past year or so, I started to notice activity and excitement moving to northeast McKenzie County, and going back to early presentations of the Bakken, it certainly looks like this area may end up being the hottest spot in the Bakken.

After today's daily activity report came out, I looked at two of the fields reporting good wells, the Timber Creek, and the Westberg, both in the bull's eye.

While touring the GIS map server I saw the Charlson field, forgetting that this field was also in the bull's eye. With its history of great wells, it all makes sense. Just out of curiosity, I took a look at a very old well that is still producing in the Charlson:

• 5727, 675, Denbury Onshore, Federal 33-1, Devonian pool; Charlson; s10/75; t12/75; cum 902K 10/11, and still producing 1,500 bbls/month. This well was an absolute gusher when it first came on-line, equal to the best Bakken wells. It had a typical Bakken decline but then stabilized, but early this year it looked like it was going to dry up. But they must have gone in with a work-over rig back in the spring/summer, because it went from 53 bbls over three months (Jan - Mar, 2011) to 1,426 bbls in October, the most recent month for which we have data. 

A million bbls of oil. Spudded in 1975, and still producing 36 years later.

Geologic Trivia

Based on the well file, it appears the Duperow formation was the target formation. See first comment below. In my haste I had equated the Duperow with the Devonian (two completely different "things": the Duperow a geologic formation; the Devonian, a geologic time period). At the time this well was spudded, it appears folks were using the terms interchangeably, even though a number of formations were laid down during the Devonian Period.  For example, the Three Forks formation was laid down during the Devonian Pool, but now the Three Forks is administratively tied to the Bakken Pool. (In the 1970s, the Three Forks was a non-payzone, like the Bakken, because the technology had not been developed to unleash tight formations. So, at that time, no one would have been talking about the Three Forks as part of the Devonian Pool.)


The Duperow is deeper than the Bakken, Three Forks, and the Birdbear. Prior to the current boom:

The Duperow Formation produces from stratigraphic traps in the central Williston Basin, from structural traps along the Nesson anticline, and from combination traps on the Billings anticline....The Duperow Formation is the third largest oil producing zone in the state, after the Madison Group and the Red River Formation, and produces a combination of oil and natural gas (Fig. 19).

My hunch is that a lot folks were using "Devonian" and "Duperow" interchangeably at the time this well was spud, much as folks use the Bakken colloquially to describe the current boom, even though the Three Forks is now known to be part of the Bakken boom.

Three Great Wells Reported Today -- Timber Creek, Westberg -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Updates

Permits

2014

29727, loc, Whiting, Eide 41-13HU, middle Bakken, 4 sections, 

29726, loc, Whiting, Eide 41-13-3H, 

29725, loc, Whiting, Eide 41-13-4H, 

29333, drl, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-8H,

29332, drl, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-12TFH,

29331, drl, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-7H,

29330, drl, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-11TFH,

2013

26736, 766, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-6H, t4/14; cum 69K 8/14;

26735, 750, Triangle, Wisness 150-100-23-14-5H, t4/14; cum 62K 8/14;

26572, 881, Hess, BW-Sharon-150-00-2536H-4, t4/14; cum 53K 8/14;

25789, 2,495, Whiting, Lucky Lady 44-35H, t10/13; cum 69K 8/14;

25734, 1,253, Whting, Moen 41-26-2H, t8/13; cum 76K 8/14;

25733, PNC, Triangle,

25732, 3,046, Whiting, Eide 41-13-2H, t10/13; cum 105K 8/14;

25731, PNC, Triangle,

25522, 587, Triangle, Arnegard 150-100-23-14-2H, t10/13; cum 135K 8/14;

25521, 611, Triangle, Arnegard 150-100-23-14-1H, t10/13; cum 145K 8/14;

24867, 1,768, Whiting, Rovelstad 21-13-2H, t6/13; cum 116K 8/14;

24861, 595, Hess, BW-Sharon 150-100-2536H-3, t8/13; cum 65K 8/14;

2012

24689, 575, Hess, BW-Sharon 150-100-2536H-2, t7/13; cum 64K 8/14;

22517, 784, Hess, BW-Sharon-150-100-2536H-1, t9/12; cum 125K 8/14;

22457, 1,930, Whiting, Moen 41-26H, t8/12; cum 95K 8/14;

22379, PA, Whiting, Eide 41-13H,

Original Post 

Six wells came off the confidential list today. Three were not completed/fracked/placed on DRL status.

The other three had great IPs:

• 20595, 1,834, Newfield, Wahus Federal 152-07-13-24-1H, Westberg, Bakken, 38 stages, 3.6 million lbs sand; 28 drilling days; peak gas of 5,042 units in Upper Bakken Shale; t9/11; cum 187K 8/14;
• 20154, 1,671, Slawson, Neptune 2-15H, Van Hook, Bakken, 19 stages; 1.8 sand, t9/11; cum 160K 8/14;
• 20014, 1,880, Whiting, Rovelstad 21-13H, Timber Creek, Bakken, 30 stages; 2.6 sand; t6/11; cum 148K 8/14;

Timber Creek oil field was new to  me.  Timber Creek is just to the west of the Bakken bull's eye. It is about as small a field as one can find: it is eight (8) sections in size. The city of Arnegard, about midway between Watford City and Alexander is in this field, at the north end. US 85 runs west-east through this field between Watford City and Alexander.

Also, I seem to remember the Westberg oil field. Yes, this is it:

• 18691, 3,731, Newfield, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H  --- 35,849 bbls in first 25 days. Okay. Westberg field, Bakken. One section spacing. Middle Bakken at 10,573 feet.  26 stages. 2.2 million pounds of proppant (I don't know if this was sand only, which would be unlikely);  no acid. S4/11; T7/11; cumulative 61,336 bbls in 53 days (less than 2 months); total depth 16,012 feet; fracked "on time." Sand only. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. s4/11; 05,000 bbls in less than four months. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. Newfield may be complaining about the cost of a Bakken well, but this is an incredible well: 105K in less than four months, and a short lateral on top of that; t7/11; cum 297K 8/14;1. 

Westberg oil field is literally in the bull's eye of the Bakken, northeast McKenzie County. 

Overview Update of the Bakken -- NDIC Presentation -- Managing Flaring Issue -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This presentation has been out there for a few weeks. Don sent it to me on December 1, 2011. Due to traveling, etc., I didn't have time to review it as much as I would have liked until now.

This is an impressive presentation that will answer the FAQs I get from newbies regarding management of the flaring issue in the Bakken. 

Some data points:

• 2,000 wells/year
• some suggest as many as 50,000 wells will be drilled
• NDIC says: 225 rigs --> 28,000 wells over 14 years
• 2,650 Bakken and Three Forks wells drilled and completed
• 33,000 more new wells possible --we're not even in the first inning in the Bakken
• I believe Harold Hamm says 48,000
• My calculations project 50,000

The "staggering" slides

• Slide 3: NDIC is thinking "big" with regard to production; price
• Slide 4: natural gas produced in ND has more than doubled in this boom
• Slide 19: increased flaring in ND is a red herring; comparison of US vs rest of world; US clearly has flaring under control

ONEOK Partners starting with slide 31: outstanding presentation

Overall investment directly related to the Bakken: $1.5 - $1.8 billion
Slide 32: Northern Border Pipeline -- the "keystone" of natural gas pipelines transiting ND?
Slide 38: Bakken Pipeline -- Bakken to Overland Pass Pipeline (WY-CO-KS)
Great photos of new natural gas processing plants
Garden Creek Plant, 100 MMcfd, northeast of Watford City, North Dakota, bull's eye of the Bakken
Stateline 1 and 1 Plants, 200 MMcfd, west of Williston

North Dakota Oil & Gas Research Program

• Bakken Express: exploring faster method of getting natural gas to processing plants; cutting down flaring
• Bakken Express: Using trucks, tube transport to place CNG into pipeline to gas plant (slide 49)
• Blaise Energy: on-site conversion of natural gas to electricity; for pump and for grid

Two additional takeaways from this presentation regarding the Bakken in general:

• skids
• modules