1H24 In One Chart -- June 30, 2024

Locator: 48028DIDION.

Link here:

But, if one needs more , from Evan. 

*********************************
The Book Page

Every once in awhile I have to re-read the Joan Didion wiki entry to remind me how prolific she really was.

Joan Didion died three years ago, December 23, 2021. Born in 1934 she died at age 87. 

I was reminded of Joan Didion again with this essay over at Lilith.  The author reflects on the current conflict in Gaza and how Joan Didion had processed other similar events. The author writes:

This war, to me, was Hitchcockian; I felt it was coming but didn’t know when. Anyone who thought otherwise, I thought, was lying (or had never read the Bible). There were some who believed that peace was achievable through diplomacy alone and that war was nothing but a violent, intrusive thought on the path to like-mindedness. When the early reports of the music festival massacre pulsed through my devices, I knew this wasn’t so. I reacted as one does to the death of a friend who has descended into madness, the thing whispered at their funeral: Shocked, but not surprised.

Didion described this feeling in “The White Album.” She remembered the morning after the Manson Family murdered pregnant actress Sharon Tate and four others. Didion had developed an almost snobbish distaste for hippies and burnouts, but she also recognized and railed against the broken systems that produced them.

At the time of the murders, Joan Didion and Sharon Tate both lived in the hilly enclave of Los Feliz. The “dangerous social pathology” of the hippie movement was no longer something she was just observing. The chaos had found its way into her private life. She wrote, “Many people I know in Los Angeles believe that the Sixties ended abruptly on August 9, 1969, at the exact moment when word of the murders on Cielo Drive traveled like brushfire through the community, and in a sense this is true. The tension broke that day. The paranoia was fulfilled.”

On October 7, 2023, the tension broke, for both Israelis and Palestinians. The paranoia was fulfilled. Shocked, but not surprised.

Didion's personal memoirs about a year in her life, 2007, made the Amazon list of 100 best books to read in one's life.  The link at Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Year-Magical-Thinking-Joan-Didion/dp/1400078431.

Everthing Everywhere Happening All At Once, Part 2 -- June 30, 2024

Locator: 48027OPENAI.

Everything everywhere happening all at once, part one: link here.

Now, today, part two.

First: adding circuit-packaging to all that jazz; Apple's M4 was revolutionary.

Now, this, from The Verge, from today, June 30, 2024:

Google's Gemini already has it's own wiki entry.

Right now, there's ChatGPT and Gemini.

• is this Intel vs Apple, all over again?
• Betamax vs Sony?
• Blu-Ray vs DVD?
• David vs Goliath?

CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, Circuit Packaging, And All That Jazz -- Apple's M4 Was Revolutionary -- June 30, 2024

Locator: 48026CHIPS.

All that jazz, part 1.

All that jazz, part 2.

With regard to tech, chips, and investing, two recurrent themes on the blog this past year:

• chips are not commodities;
• Biden's CHIPS Act was just the beginning.

On the blog:

Chips: link here.

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here. 
• AI: Apple intelligence.
  
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• chip count updates.
• chip count.
  
• Supercomputers: link here.
• Data centers: link here. 
• System on a chip (SOC): link here.
• Apple Intelligence (AI), short title, Siri: link here. 
• WWDC24: link here.
  

• Nodes: link here.
  

*********************************
So, What' New?

We start here. From yesterday, news on a Saturday:

From the linked article:

• SK Hyinx to invest $75 billion in AI, chips, over the next three years;
• compare: Biden's CHIPS Act -- $39 billion in tax benefits, loan guarantees and grants
• SK Hynix is the world's #2 memory chip maker
• this company has 175 subsidiaries
• SK Hynix group's electric vehicle battery arm suffered heavy losses and the company needs to "re-group"
• the conglomerate owns the country's largest battery maker, SK On
• "at a time of transition, a preemptive and fundamental change is necessary"
• the company will focus on its AI value chain, including high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, AI data centers and AI services such as personalized AI assistants
• South Korea, home to the world's top memory chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, has fallen behind some rivals in areas such as chip design and contract chip manufacturing

This might be a good time to review Hynix. Wiki link here. The article is full of incredibly interesting data points for investors. The company's major customers include:

• Microsoft
• Apple
• Asus
• Dell,
• MSI,
• HP, Inc
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise

Note which company is / companies are missing.

Now, most interesting, this April 3, 2024, article in The WSJ:

From the linked article:

• an advanced chip-packaging facility (see below) in West Lafayette, IN;
• mass produce high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, a critical component to AI
• memory ≠ processing units (GPUs [Nvidia], or CPUs [AMD])
• memory? Think MU (Micron)
  
• to start mass production in 2H28; more than 1,000 jobs
• state and local universities offered huge incentives
• and then this: SK HYNIX currently dominates as the exclusive HBM partner to Nvidia's most advanced graphic-processor units -- the two types of chips get bundled together to enable the faster data-processing speeds needed fro generative AI such at ChatGPT
• can you say M4?
• Biden's CHIPS act is helping leading producers expand beyond the industry's traditional hubs in Texas, California and Oregon
• the U.S. represented 37% of global chip manufacturing, though it had slumped to 12% within three decades.
• now, spurred by incentives linked to 2022’s $53 billion Chips Act, semiconductor giants have envisioned new American production frontiers in the Midwest. Though the region lacks existing infrastructure, officials in Indiana, Ohio, Kansas and elsewhere pitch their lower overall costs, untapped labor forces and proximity to key resources.

Much more at the linked article, but you get the idea.

Chip-packaging: CPU + GPU + NPU = M4, integrated circuit packaging.

************************
A Contrarian View: Prudence-Signaling

Link here. 

This is from just two days ago, June 28, 2024.

Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- June 20, 2024

Locator: 48025WELLS.

• 40299, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 3B, Sanish, npd,
• 40253, conf, CLR, Benner 5-7H, Jim Creek, npd,
• 39894, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-10, Alkali Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	14361	37306
3-2024	14375	36954
2-2024	18390	39508
1-2024	19194	27537

• 40252, conf, CLR, Benner 4-7H, Jim Creek, npd,
• 39964, conf, Petroshale, Primus 1TFH, Antelope, npd,
• 39527, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-15B-22-2H, Little Knife, npd,
• 39427, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-5-8H 3, Green Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	15966	4239
3-2024	22569	10335
2-2024	10824	1947
1-2024	8790	4846

• 40319, conf, Kraken, Maddie 10-15-22 3H, Ellisville, npd,
• 40298, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 4B, Sanish, npd,
• 40234, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bobwhite 29-2 1H, Starbuck,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	1890	0
3-2024	1529	0
2-2024	1676	0

• 39924, conf, Slawson, Switchback 4-21UTFH, Big Bend, npd,
• 39528, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-15A-22-3H, Little Knife, npd,
• 39428, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-5-8H 4, Green Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	16870	4454
3-2024	20102	8926
2-2024	7150	156
1-2024	7368	6006

• 40382, conf, Kraken Maddie 10-15-22 4H, Ellisville, npd,
• 40282, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 5B, Sanish, npd,
• 40251, conf, CLR Benner 3-7H, Jim Creek, npd,
• 39925, conf, Slawson, Switchback 5-21UTFH, Big Bend, npd,
  
• 40383, conf, Kraken, Maddie 10-15-22 5H, Ellisville,
• 40250, conf, CLR, Benner 2-7HSL, Jim Creek, npd,
• 40384, conf, Kraken, Wayne 11-14-23 2H, Ellisville, npd,
  
• 40222, conf, CLR, Marshall 4-13H, Little Knife, npd,
• 39892, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-8, Alkali Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	15417	33634
3-2024	17789	38910
2-2024	21519	42987
1-2024	40958	73402

• 40306, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-5H, Stanley, npd, 
• 40264, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-4H, Stanley, npd, 
• 39895, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-11, Alkali Creek,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	11822	24692
3-2024	15725	30000
2-2024	13214	26129
1-2024	32875	53862

• 39224, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-3, Beaver Lodge,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2024	16445	24351
3-2024	18755	25116
2-2024	15881	21380
1-2024	17845	23144

Inflation Watch -- June 29, 2024

Locator: 48024COBB.

One of our favorite spots for lunch is the "deli" -- full-menu restaurant -- inside a foodie grocery store in Southlake, TX: Central Market, part of the famed HEB chain. 

One of my favorite meals: the Cobb salad, the least expensive of the several salad selections, at $11.00 and a craft beer, $5 / bottle. 

So, about $16 for lunch.

But that Cobb salad is more than I really need, so I can make my own Cobb salad at the salad bar, adding only the vegetables, protein, etc., that I want --- and a really, really nice Cobb salad costs me $3.00.

Then I add a 96-cent can of flavored sparkling water.

Right at $4.00 for lunch. And that included a hard-boiled egg on the salad. A dollar less than the $5 value meal at McDonald's.

This is a made-to-order Cobb salad prepared by my nephew out at Flathead Lake, Montana -- at an upscale restaurant this would easily be priced at $20. My hunch: my nephew's cost was a whole lot less and a whole lot more fun to prepare and serve.

Flashback -- Apple -- Steve Jobs - 1984

Locator: 48023APPLE.

Link here.

Steve Jobs would be 69 years old this year, born in February.

************
The Story Behind The Photo

Link here.

Patriot Missile System -- An Update -- June 29, 2024

Locator: 48022DOD.

Link here to wiki.

Lockheed Martin, Grand Prairie, Texas, just down the street from us. 

Link here.

Top Business Story Of The Week? DEI Replaced By TSC? June 29, 29, 2024

Locator: 48021TSC.

Tag: Tractor Supply. 

Link here. 

DEI dead.

It's attributed to / blamed on shareholders, but my hunch is that 20-year+ employees not happy seeing their jobs go to less qualified based simply on "woke" culture.

I don't know.

Just a hunch.

US Crude Oil And Petroleum Products -- Exports And Imports -- June 29, 2024

Locator: 48020OIL.

This is just one of many excellent charts Giovanni posted overnight. 

If I could follow only two folks on twitter it would be Giovanni and Carl Q.

Link here.

By the way, which single individual or agency in the United States government has the most "power" to change this data?

For The Archives -- Overturning Chevron -- SCOTUS -- June 29, 2024

Locator: 48019CHEVRON.

From Bloomberg Law overnight:

THE DEATH OF CHEVRON will increase difficulties for President Joe Biden’s administration at a time when it’s looking to cement policy goals ahead of the November election.

• The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision stripping federal agencies of the power to interpret ambiguous laws makes it tougher for the administration to defend its biggest policy ambitions, including regulations issued in recent months to mitigate climate change, forgive student debt, and crack down on “junk fees,” Courtney Rozen reports.
• New Reality: Biden, who reiterated policy promises during a shaky debate performance Thursday, must contend with a reality that opponents now have fresh ammunition to pursue arguments that certain regulatory actions overstep the authority Congress gave to federal agencies. “This is as extreme an overruling of Chevron as anybody could have anticipated,” said Sharon Block, a Harvard Law School professor and former Biden-era leader of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. “I don’t see really any remaining respect for the expertise of agencies.” Read More
• The impact of the Chevron doctrine’s demise will be lessened by years of high court skepticism undercutting the precedent, and also because judicial review of agency action has already grown more searching amid the rise of the major questions doctrine, Christopher Walker, an administrative law professor at the University of Michigan, told Jennifer Hijazi and Robert Iafolla. Still, the decision alters the regulatory landscape. It “takes an argument out of the quiver of agency lawyers and puts new arguments in the quiver” for industry challengers, said Nathan Richardson, a professor at Jacksonville University College of Law. Read More
• Also Read: Blockbuster Ruling Seals Long Gorsuch Quest to Gut Agency Power
• Hill Hiring: The justices also put the onus on lawmakers to become better versed in regulatory matters and to hire and retain expert staff needed to craft the complex regulatory legislation that will be expected in a post-Chevron world. Congressional staff are largely early in their career and lack the expertise, such as a law degree, for more technical work, Zach C. Cohen reports. Read More
  

**********************
The Problem

Link here. 

Chevron:

Chevron deference is the latitude federal judges give agencies over how to interpret the statutes they administer when a dispute arises. Some 40 years ago, the Supreme Court articulated a relatively simple two-part test. First, the judges examine the wording and the context of the statute in question to see if Congress’s intent is clear. If it is, then the matter is settled: The agency is obliged to follow the letter of the law.

But:

The problem is solved if the US Congress would do its job and write statutory language that is unambiguous.

That's what has most upset folks. The US Congress won't do its job. Roe vs Wade was perhaps the most egregious. Congress had 40 years to codify the court's ruling in Roe vs Wade. 

The question comes down to this: would one rather have Congressional acts of law be subject to change / re-interpretation every four years -- or even more often -- through appointed, non-elected, bureaucrats; or, attempt to ensure that the precedent of law, extending back to the founding of the country, takes precedence? 

If bureaucrats have near-ultimate control, we have four branches of government. The US Supreme Court rightly confirmed there are three branches of government. Both sides of the aisle regularly complain the bureaucrats have too much power / not doing enough.

In fact, there's also a fifth branch -- bureaucrats whom the "elected president" cannot fire.  We can start with director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

Link here. 

**************************
Most Amazing "Fact" About The Chevron Ruling

I found it amazing that the court took this case, and then when it took this case, the early analysis clearly anticipated how the court would rule.

But most amazing: the actual voting -- 6 - 3. 

Two of the three, and perhaps all three of the dissenters are widely accepted to be the least ... well, I'll leave it there for readers to fill in the blank. I've said this before.

Egypt -- WInd Energy -- $10 Billion -- Charles Kennedy -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48018EGYPT.

This was posted yesterday, link here.

Now, today, Egypt, link here.

From the linked article:

A $10-billion wind power project in Egypt, one of the world’s biggest, is set to see its construction start by March 2026, delayed from this year due to the process of land acquisition, the chairman of one of the companies involved in the project told Bloomberg. 

The wind farm with a planned capacity of 10 gigawatts (GW) is being developed by Infinity Power, the largest African renewable energy developer, Hassan Allam Utilities, and the UAE's flagship renewable energy company, Masdar.

The construction was delayed from the initial timeline which envisaged breaking ground in 2024, due to the process of acquiring the land for the wind power development in the Upper Egyptian region of West Sohag, Mohamed Mansour, chairman of Infinity Power. 

This is how they're trying to sell this project:

The huge wind project is expected to produce 47,790 GWh of clean energy per year and cut around 9% of Egypt’s annual carbon emissions by displacing 23.8 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. 

The wind farm will also help Egypt meet its strategic objective of sourcing 42% of its energy from renewables by 2030. The 10-GW wind farm will save the country an estimated US$5 billion in natural gas costs per year.

***************************************
The Book Page

Actually two books.

Combee: Harriet Tubman, the Combahee River Raid and Black Freedom During the Civil War, Edda L. Fields-Black, 2024. Link here.

Night Flyer: Harriet Tubman and the Faith Dreams of a Free People, Tiya Miles, 2024. 

It looks like that, of the two, I would prefer Tiya Mill's book.

 Basis of essay by Casey Cep, "The North Star," The New Yorker, July 1, 2024, p. 61.

Pet Peeve: Rig Counts -- Here We Go Again -- Doing More With Less -- Oilprice -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48017B.

Link here. 

Week 26: June 24, 2024 -- June 30, 2024

Locator: 48016TOPSTORIES.

The "debate":

• 
  

Top international non-energy story:

• 
  

Top international energy story: 

Top national non-energy story: 

• Astronauts still "stuck" on the ISS while NASA / Boeing try to sort things out.
  
• 
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI hits $82 briefly but holds above $81.
  

Focus on fracking: June 16, 2024.

Top North Dakota non-energy story: 

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

No New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48065B. 

WTI: $81.54.

Active rigs: 38.

No new permits.

Ten permits renewed:

• Whiting (6): Roggenbuck (5); Bartleson (1) -- Sanish, Mountrail.
• Grayson Mill (4): Owan Trust (3), Painted Woods, Williams; Clear Creek Federal , Westberg, McKenzie.

The Fed: Lucy; The Financial Analysts? Charlie Brown -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48064ARCHIVES.

Tesla deliveries: to be reported the second day of the next quarter? Next Tuesday, July 2, 2024?

*****************************
The Fed

The Fed, the "rate," the market, the talk: after lots and lots of discussion about the Fed and when will the Fed cut rates, and then today's numbers (the PCE) and then comments from various Fed committee members. the fog is starting to clear:

• "they" may be talking about 2% inflation, but no one has really defined what components / what metric the Fed is really, really following (they have a "preferred" metric but that's just one of many); and,
• no one has really, really defined how long the metric must remain at 2% for the Fed to cut.

If one has not yet noticed, the Fed's promise to cut the "Fed rate" is like watching Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown to kick, and furthering the analogy, if Lucy ever lets Charlie Brown kick the ball, he will find Lucy has moved the goal posts.

This is what's going on and how things will play out:

• the Fed is not shooting for 2%; they're shooting for 1.5% inflation rate for several months and for indications that inflation has truly been tamed before they will make meaningful cuts;
• to get to 1.5% inflation, we will have to see significant deflation (or is it called disinflation now?);
• bottom line: the Fed is now targeting 1.5% not 2%;
• the only way to get to 1.5% is to get through 2% and to see lots of pain;
• the Fed hawks will want to see headlines of "pain" on the business pages of general interest magazines and other media outlets, not simply in the headlines of business magazines and other business media outlets.
• the only "thing" now holding back that 2% target is rent, and maybe house prices, but in the big scheme of things, the only "thing" between now and 2% inflation is rent;
• and the housing situation is so tight in the US, there is no chance landlords are going to lower rents, which is required if we're going to get to 2%.

So, again:

• the Fed is targeting 1.5% inflation using undefined metrics and undefined time periods;
• to get to 1.5%, lots of pain will need to be endured by the broad "middle class" -- however one wants to define that demographic
  
• the lower class is relatively unaffected by inflation (and if they are, no one is listening to them anyway); and the wealthy are doing, doing very, very well with 5% in  money market funds to hedge against their investments in Nvidia.

And, oh by the way, while contemplating the above, no one has ever explained to me why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, and not 1% or 1.5% or 3% or 3.5%. So, even targeting 1.5% is incorrect. In fact, the Fed is looking for something else, but the press and Steve Liesman need a number, and 2% is the Fed's number, though in fact, it should be clear by now, it's really 1.5% if one needs a number. 

In fact, the Fed is looking for something else.

The Fed is looking for this: an undefined (for lack of a better word) "pain index."

The Fed's “pain index":

• increasing unemployment rate, greater than 5% in U-3 unemployed;
• the lack of "we are hiring signs" in the store windows on Main Street;
• headlines in USA Today screaming the US economy is deteriorating;
• a falling GDP but without going negative.

The Fed will get no credit if it lowers rates  in a Goldilocks environment, but if the economy starts to deteriorate and the pain index is obvious to all, then JPow can swoop in, cut rates, and look like the hero. And if timing works out, the Fed’s dithering could prove to be incredibly fortuitous for the next president, whomever (whoever?) that might be.

*****************************
The Market Today

The market was doing great the first half of the day, rising to new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ but then by the end of the day everything deteriorated. What happened.

This is so obvious.

Last day of the month; last day of the quarter; last day of the first half -- after an incredible one month, one quarter, one half -- the money managers sold, locked in their profits, will take next week off, and then get back in the market in late July before the summer doldrums really set in.

By the way, how bad was it? 

Before the 10 - 1 split, NVDA was trading for $1,000 / share, or split-adjusted, $100 / share.

Now it's in the $125 range. Today. NVDA lost ... drum roll .... off 30 cents or thereabouts, and then NVDA rose after hours.

Although AAPL pulled back significantly today, AAPL was still up 1.42% for the week, and , like NVDA, rose after hours.

****************

Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  
  

Pickup Review In The WSJ -- The 2024 Chevrolet Colorado -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48063TRUCKS.

With only years, not decades, to go before California and other states mandate EVs across the board and with all the excitement (hype) regarding EVs, it is interesting to note this review in The WSJ today.

Why, oh why, oh why, if EVs are the future, why is Dan Neil reviewing the 2024 Chevrolet Colorado?

Dan raves about the Colorado, and then finished with this:

Why is Dan not extolling the virtues of an EV?

Whatever.

But it gives me a chance to take another look at truck classification.

From a post a long time ago:

*******************************

Truck Classification

In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors, errors of omission and commission. If this is important to you, go to the source.

See wiki.

Vehicle classification in the US.

Light duty.

• Class 1: passenger cars and really, really light-weight pickup trucks like the Ford Ranger, Toyota Tacoma, Nissan Frontier.

• The F-150 is almost a class 1, but it falls into the the class 2 category, but class 2 is the only class further broken into class 2a and 2b. So, the F-150 "upsets" the "trend" that one sees below. 

• Class 2a: F-150

• Class 2b: F-250

Medium duty.

• Class 3: F-350

• Now, it gets a bit interesting. An F-350 is a class 3 truck but an F-450 comes in both the class 3 flavor and the class 4 favor. 
• so, Ford markets two class 3 pick-up trucks: the F-350 and the F-450
• class 3 F-450: the typical pick-up truck;
• class 4 F-450: just the cab and the chassis; no "box." It's like the typical urban tow trucks one sees everywhere picking up stalled EVs

• Class 4: F-450 (chassis only model, as noted above)

A trend is starting to develop, continuing with medium duty.

• Class 5: F-550

• Class 6: F-650

Heavy duty

• Class 7 26,001 - 33,000 pounds.: F-750; Kenworth K370, Mack MD, Peterbilt 220 and 337/348, etc.

• Class 8, 33,001 - 80,000 pounds: Volvo Truck VNL, Freightliner Cascadia, Ford F-750, Kenworths, Nikola TRE, Peterbilts, Western Stars, and so on. 

I figured out the nomenclature using the quarter-ton, half-ton, three-quarter-ton naming, but now the "class nomenclature" makes sense. Whether it was planned that way or not.

*************************
Back to The WSJ Article

But this is why I am posting this.

 

In the comment section of The WSJ article:

 This goes back to this by Dan Neil in the article:

Note: two things in that screenshot above -- first, the "size" of the pickup truck as the reader referenced, but also, the towing capacity.

Towing capacity of 7,700 pounds. Now let's compare all this with the Cybertruck.

 

From MotorTrend, payload and hauling capacity:

Payload:

Towing: the dealer will tell you the Tesla is rated for a maximum 11,000-lb towing capacity but in reality:

So, finally, back to where we were, what is a half-ton pickup truck?

But, again, why in the world is Dan Neil still reviewing ICEs? Shouldn’t we be well beyond ICEs and moving to EVs by now? Or even hybrids?

A Hess Case In The July, 2024, Hearing Dockets -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48062DOCKETS.

From the NDIC hearing dockets, July, 2024.

The case:

• Case 31038, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie.

There are already about eleven producing wells in that spacing unit, so we're only talking about three additional wells.

The maps:

The original well:

• 18053, 467, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-1, Blue Buttes, t10/09; cum 323K 4/24; a real "steady Eddy" for an old well.

A slightly younger well:

• 24506, 1,065, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-5, Blue Buttes, t7/13; cum 290K 4/24;

And now a more recent well:

• 33630, 1,292, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-9, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum 105K 4/24;

Personal Utility - Electricity Bill -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48061ELECTRICITY.

Electricity rates by state, April, 2024, link here. 

Electricity bill, north Texas. Household energy: only electricity, no natural gas. Utility says their electricity is 100% renewable. 

My rate runs about 15.6 cents per kWh, slightly higher than the "advertised" 14.25 cents, up slightly from 14.11 cents one year ago.

Record heat in Texas this spring. The grid held.

But note, the average high temperature unchanged from last year!

Two extra days this billing period compared to last year.

I've been less "stringent" this year with regard to conserving energy -- LOL. I am / was curious to see how that affects our overall usage.

So, less than the cost of a Starbucks coffee each day. 

This year: 20 * 30 =  600

Last year: 18 * 30 = 540

 15.6 cents last year = $84.24 last year.

15.6 * 600 = $93.60 this year. 

Inconsequential. 

**************************
Kitchen Appliances

************************
The Movie Page 

Wow, wow, wow. One of my favorite television personalities, Ms Della Street on Perry Mason. I always thought she was quite attractive, and then, what do you know? I just found Falcon Out West, starring Tom Conway, and ..... lo and behold --- starring Barbara Hale. Born in April, 1922, same year as my day, and this movie came out in 1944 -- making Barbara Hale about 21 years old when she made this film.

Wow.

Died in Sherman Oaks, CA, at age 94. Wow. Brings back memories of my few short years in southern California.

**************************
Presidential Politics

The first presidential debate was last night.

Folks know how that turned out. Bottom line: Democrat movers and shakers are trying to figure out how to replace Biden at the top of the ticket.

Fast forward twelve hours.

I just received the current issue of The New Yorker, cover dated July 1, 2024, with the lead "The Talk of the Town" story, "Comment: Debatable." It was written before the first debate last night, and gives the writer's view of that (upcoming) debate. The author, Evan Osnos, completely missed what would be the topic of the debate.

Everyone tuned in to watch DJT. 

But everyone left the debate remembering only the vacant look of the president. 

For Evan Osnos to completely have missed this possibility tells us how well the White House has been "hiding" Joe Biden and how quickly the latter has gone "downhill." 

Three comments and observations:

• the spectacle last night raises the question whether the president has the stamina for a "classical" cross-country campaign. Spoiler alert: no;
• the question whether Joe will renege on his agreement for two debates; and,
• most importantly, donor funds for Biden will dry up even as Trump's donations surge.

In a "normal" situation, all would agree that Biden lost the election last night, but 2024 -- with DJT -- nothing is normal.

Having said that, the US Supreme Court is making a lot of decisions favoring Trump and not Biden. We can start with January 6.

Disclaimer: this is no endorsement of either candidate.

*****************************
The Movie Page (Again)

Wow, wow, wow. Now, following Falcon Out West, we have the Scapegoat (1959), based on a novel by Daphne du Maurier -- one of my favorites, starring Bette Davis and Alec Guiness, with screenplay by Robert Hamer and Gore Vidal, another favorite. 

All of these old films only became more poignant over time with much more meaning to me personally after my time in England, 2002 - 2006, or thereabouts.  

The premise of the movie is most interesting. It will be interesting to see if it holds up. Nicole Maurey, b. 1925, would have been about 34 years old (?). 

Bette Davis, b. 1908, about 50 years of age.

The NDIC Hearing Dockets -- July, 2024

Locator: 48060DOCKETS.

July hearing dockets.  

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, July 25, 2024
Ten Pages
Link here.

These are cases, not permits.

The cases:

• 31046, CLR, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acreunit, one well; Williams.
• 31047, CLR, Stockyard Creek-Bakken and/or Crazy Man Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Williams County.
• 31048, Formentera Operations, Frazier-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, eight wells, Divide County
• 31049, Hunt, Parshall-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; Mounrail County.
• 31050, Hunt, Ross-Bakken establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, one well on the various section lines; Mountrail County
• 31051, Hunt, Clear Water-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, nine wells, Mountrail; or in the alternative establish two overlapping 1280-acre units, four wells one each unit, and an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well between the units, Mountrail County.
• 31052, Equus Energy Partners and WGO Resources, create three 320-acre units; one well on each; Golden Valley County.
• 31053, Phoenix Operating, Kittleson Slough-Bakken, establish a 1920-acre unit, eight wells, Mountrail.
• 31054, Grayson Mill, Westberg-Bakken, authorize up to nine wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie County.
• 31055, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 31056, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 31057, CRL, pooling,  
• 31058, CRL, pooling,  
• 31059, CRL, pooling,  
• 31060, CRL, pooling,  
• 31061, Hunt, pooling, 
• 31062, Hunt, pooling, 
• 31063, Hunt, pooling, 
• 31064, Hunt, pooling, 
• 31065, Hunt, commingling, 
• 31066, Hunt, commingling, 
• 31067, XTO, commingling,
• 31068, XTO, commingling,
• 31069, WPX, SWD
• 31070, Eagle Operating, SWD,
• 31071, Phoenix Operating, commingling,
• 31072, Phoenix Operating, SWD,
• 31073, Hunt, commingling,

Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Twelve Pages
Link here.

The cases:

• 30998, MRO, Bailey and/or Lake Ilo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit one well, Dunn County.
• 30999, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well, Dunn County.
• 31000, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Dunn County.
• 31001, Five States Operating, Bull Creek-Madison, establish two 320-acre units, one horizontal well; Stark County;
• 31002, Oasis, Dollar Joe-Baken, establish an overlapping standup 2560-acre unit, two wells; Williams County.
• 31003, Oasis, Strandahl and/or Bull Butte-Bakken, establish two overlapping standup 1920-acre units, three wells on each unit, Williams County.
• 31004, Hess, Camel Butte and/or Blue Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1280-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County.
• 31005, Hess, Sorkness and/or Big Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit, two wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County.
• 31006, Hess, Big Butte-Bakke, establish an overlapping standup 1920-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Mountrail County.
• 31007, Hess, Big Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well, Mountrail County.
• 31008, NDIC commission, confiscation of all production-related equipment, #36308, Oltmans Ocelot, Freedom Energy Operating, Stark County.
• 31009, BR, revoking permit legalese affecting Enerplus, Little Knife.
  
• 31010, BR, revoking permit legalese affecting Enerplus, Little Knife.
• 31011, MRO, pooling
• 31012, MRO, pooling
• 31013, MRO, pooling
• 31014, MRO, pooling 
• 31015, MRO, pooling
• 31016, MRO, pooling
• 31017, MRO, pooling
• 31018, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken; authorize five wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn.
• 31019, MRO, Lake Ilo-Bakken, authorize six wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Dunn.
• 31020, BR, commingling,
• 31021, commingling,
• 31022, Lime Rock, pooling,
• 31023, Oasis, pooling,
• 31024, Oasis, pooling,
• 31025, Oasis, pooling,
• 31026, Oasis, pooling,
• 31027, Oasis, pooling,
• 31028, Oasis, pooling,
• 31029, Oasis, commingling,
• 31030, Hess, pooling, 
• 31031, Hess, pooling, 
• 31032, Hess, pooling, 
• 31033, Hess, pooling, 
• 31034, Hess, pooling, 
• 31035, Hess, pooling, 
• 31036, Hess, Blue Butte-Bakken twelve wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie.
• 31037, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken; eleven wells on a 1280-acr unit, McKenzie.
• 31038, Hess, Blue Buttes-Bakken, fourteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie.
• 31039, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, Williams.
• 31040, Hess, commingling,
• 31041, Hess, commingling,
• 31042, Hess, commingling,
• 31043, Hess, commingling,
• 31044, Hess, commingling,
• 31045, SWD

 

Portland, Oregon, Walmart -- Under Lock And Key -- Personal Assistants Now In Vogue-- Just Like Neiman Marcus -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48060WALMART. 

Tag: "lockandkey" lockdown

Socks: #1 item homeless shelters want / need.

Lego: I can guarantee you that the homeless living in tents in Portland are not interested in Lego. Except for re-sale.

We're not yet seeing this in the DFW / north Texas area -- yet.

Residents in Portland, OR, now talk about "personal assistants" accompanying Walmart customers. 

When I visited Portland, I stopped at Walmart to buy two items: socks and work gloves. Both items -- socks and work gloves in different parts of the clothing section -- and both were under lock and key. Both times I had to "buzz in" for assistance. My "personal assistant" arrived immediately, she did not speak English as her first language, was incredibly friendly, and was able to tell me my items would be at register 8 when I was ready to check out. And they were. Incredibly smooth process. No complaints.

TGIF -- June 28, 2024

Locator: 48059B. 

Market: full opening remarks here.

LEGO: new sets revealed.

• Optimus Primus Bumblebee, $89.99, new, coming
• Lunar Rover, $219.99; pre-order;
• Mercedes-AMG, Speed Champions set, $44.99, backorder;
• amazing how many sets are on backorder (due mostly to shipping delays)

Debate: 

• clearly the pundits and headline writers didn't see the same debate that the rest of us saw. If one steps back and takes a broader view ... one sees a completely different landscape ...

PCE: from CNBC -- 

• an important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. 
• the core personal consumption expenditures price index increased just a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage point from the April level,
• both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones estimates. 
• May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
• reminder: March, 2021 -- the one year anniversary of the Trump-mandated Covid-19 lockdown. That's what Biden inherited.
  

Cramer:

• soft landing
• all that's left is the rent number
• these were not numbers for a "Fed rate raise"

************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.10.

Sunday, June 30, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

Saturday, June 29, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

Friday, June 28, 2024: 75 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 338 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: low Panama Canal water levels mean big headaches for LNG exporters.

The Panama Canal expansion completed in June 2016 was expected to allow much larger LNG tankers to move product from Sabine Pass LNG and other Gulf Coast export terminals through the canal to Asian and Latin American customers. But water levels at Gatun Lake, which provides the fresh water needed to operate the canal’s locks, have been well below normal in recent years, limiting opportunities to use the canal and complicating plans to ramp up LNG flows through it. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the challenges of moving LNG through the Panama Canal, how access to the waterway has been affected by drought and climate conditions over the past decade, and the impact on the LNG market. 

Futures Mean Nothing, But Just The Same, I'm Not Going To Miss Tomorrow Morning's Business News -- June 27, 2024

Locator: 48058INV.

Market Updates Throughout The Day
Last Trading Day of 1H24
Best half for the market since 1928

10:02 a.m. CDT: what to the world's richest men all have in common? None of them got rich in renewable energy. And "global warming" issue has been around since at least 1994 -- thirty years ago.

• Nike's worse day in 37 years -- since 1987 -- on guidance! As well as operating results;
• company went public in 1980; Black Friday, October, 1987
  
• what this tells me: investors not happy with lousy returns when they see what Nvidia, et al, are doing
• 2H24: "show me the money"
• money not in renewables or EVs

Mid-morning trade:

Original Post

 ****************************
At The Open -- Friday, June 28, 2024

Dow: from negative to +200 points at the open --

Cramer:

• soft landing
• all that's left is the rent number
• these were not numbers for a "Fed rate raise"
• "summer rally" is real; "sell in May" is not;
  
• 1H24 has been best half since 1928
  

Apple: 

• Cramer can't say enough about Apple;
• at least four buy-side analysts now have AAPL in $250 - $260 range; currently trading at $215

SCCO: 

• surges -- up 2.22%; up $2.39 at the open; still off its recent highs (but doesn't matter for investors).

NIKE:

• getting crushed! Down almost 20% today. 
• worse day in 23 years
  
• life-style business decline
• performance business didn't offset
• digital weakness
• traffic in China declined
• the current CEO has been there for one year; when he came in, he made huge changes; much innovation
• street doesn't feel comfortable
  

Chicago PMI, link here:

• 47.4 vs 40.0 est -- wow
• S&P goes over 5,500 on that news
  

DOW Theory:

• Dow transports support Dow industrials

VIX:

• at 12.30; well below the "14" threshold

INTC down almost 40% in 1Q24; one of the very few disappointments in the chip sector --

Search:

• google vs reddit (pronounced "read it")
• which is better? Depends.
• politics in real time, link here: