Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- May 12, 2022

Dividend watch: whoo-hoo. Both Suncor and TSM increase dividend (fact check me on these; could be wrong):

• SU: to 36.60 cents; previous: 33.10 cents; in September, 2021, it was 16.6 cents.
• TSM: to 46.246 cents; was 39 cents; wow, is that an 18.5% increase?
• a reader reminded me that AAPL paid its dividend today; 23 cents / share
  

Inflation watch:May 12, 2022, "inflation watch" is occasionally updated here:

• eggs are back! Plenty of eggs at both Target and Albertson's
• Target: $3.19 for a dozen
• Albertson's: $2.79 for a dozen
• I haven't had an egg in about two weeks; prior, one to two eggs for breakfast, now, none in past two weeks
  

Natural gas fill rate: this is why I don't follow natural gas all that much -- it looked close; natural gas fill rate was going to drop below the five-year low -- close, but no cigar; link here:

SPR release? Biden's oil going to Europe. Link here.

Europe is set to receive more cargoes of U.S. crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as the European Union discusses an oil embargo on Russia and looks to reduce reliance on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing tanker-tracking data and sources with knowledge of the shipments.

In recent weeks, Europe has increased purchases of U.S. crude as it considers the details of a ban on imports of Russian crude and refined products.

A week after the European Commission officially proposed a full ban on Russian crude and oil product imports by the end of the year, the EU is still scrambling to find a common position, trying to persuade Hungary and some other central European countries to drop their opposition to an embargo.

Anyone Following The Baby Formula Story? May 12, 2022

Update

June 6, 2022: completely orchestrated by an out-of-control FDA. Link here. Note the basis on which the plant was shut down.

May 22, 2022: how serious this problem really is. Again, completely mismanaged.

May 14, 2022: black market opportunities --

May 14, 2022:

May 12, 2022: formula headlines --

May 12, 2022: when I saw this headline, I knew it was an orchestrated "shortage," an orchestrated crisis. If you doubt me, do the math.

May 12, 2022: Amazon. 

May 12, 2022: Target, local, a fake recall, an orchestrated "shortage"; an orchestrated crisis.

Later 10:47 p.m. CT: when one does the math and then reads the backstory, one can see that, yes, indeed, there was a shortage; the shortage was a non-problem until it became politicized by the GOP  / Breitbart  and then it became a problem. The problem will run its course in weeks, if not days. If one runs the numbers, one will know what I'm talking about.

Later, 5:21 p.m. CT: I think the "baby formula shortage" is being orchestrated. We'll talk about it later. Now to the pool with Sophia. But let the hoarding begin.

Original Post 

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply to a reader who sent me the original links.

My reply:

Thank you very much. I find this incredible.

Now, for investing, which companies are making all this formula?

Enfamil and Similac is where I would go first.

Enfamil: Mead Johnson

Similac: Abbott.

Wow, wow, wow.

Abbott is one of my favorites among the Buffett-like stocks. Mead Johnson, I know nothing.

Formula is not a one-time purchase. The US government is going to buy more and more baby formula going forward.

No press allowed at Biden baby formula meeting: Operation Breast Milk Substitute -- 

• https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2022/05/12/report-no-press-allowed-at-biden-baby-formula-meeting/.

Apparently the US government is buying "pallets" of baby formula for southern surge:

• https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/05/12/nolte-gop-rep-says-illegal-immigrants-receiving-pallets-baby-formula/. 

The source is not mainstream. Needs to be fact-checked.

One has to remember: ever since Sigma-6 and kaizen (think Toyota Motors) and Dr Deming, US manufacturers of "everything" look at a two-week window of storage. Any more than two weeks of storage of anything is not efficient. I think one can connect the dots from there. 

A huge thanks to the reader for alerting me to this very, very interesting story. Baby formula is an extremely small market, it doesn't take much to put it "out of whack." How small is it? Take a look around your house: how many babies do you have on formula?

"Southern Surge" is occasionally tracked here.

Limited NDIC Data; Daily Activity Report For Wednesday -- May 11, 2022 -- Posted May 12, 2022

Active rigs: 38

WTI: $106.10

Link here.

Four new permits, #38939 - #38942, inclusive:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Elm Tree (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for four Harms Federal wells in SESE 31-153-93; 
• to be sited 234 FSL and between 334 FEL and 244 FEL

Ten permits renewed:

• Hess: five BB-Olson permits in McKenzie County and five EN-Statee B wells in Mountrail County

Locations re-surveyed:

• Whiting, #37262 - #37265, inclusive, Borseth Federal wells, McKenzie County; NENE15-148-99;

NDIC Oil And Gas Website Down For Fourth Consecutive Day -- Part 2 -- May 12, 2022

I just realized that because I'm out of my normal rotation with the NDIC website down, I've been forgetting to check in on RBN Energy. Lo siento. 

So, let's see what I've missed. 

Oh, this is really cool. I haven't missed any of the RBN Energy  daily blogs. This (see below) is the most recent RBN Energy blog post (a day late because I don't have a subscription). 

I was going to talk about this issue yesterday -- this is a big story. Right now, we're looking at some type of diesel rationing on the east coast this summer, and it's very possible, we're going to see some airline route changes and warnings due to aviation fuel availability and cost at select airports. Everyone already knows about the aviation fuel debacle in Austin, TX. It will get worse. 

But anyway, from RBN Energy: this is part 2 on this subject. Part 1 already requires a subscription if one didn't archive it earlier. I did not. 

But here's part 2: jet fuel market recovery highlights challenges of transporting fuel to airports. 

Just over two years ago, the jet fuel market experienced an almost existential shock. In the space of only six or seven weeks, demand for the refined product plummeted by more than 70% as COVID-related lockdowns and air-travel restrictions were implemented. Fortunately, life in the U.S. has been returning to normal — albeit with some bumps along the way — and demand for jet fuel (a.k.a. “jet”) has been rebounding to near pre-pandemic levels. That re-emphasizes a nagging challenge, though, namely transporting large volumes of jet from refineries and import docks to hundreds of major and minor airports. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at jet fuel, this time with an examination of where it's produced and consumed, and how it gets from refineries to airports.

The jet fuel market has been on a wild ride since the pandemic started in early 2020. First, demand, prices and production tanked. Then came a slow, uneven recovery that continued through this past winter, when Russia’s war on Ukraine and other factors caused spikes in crude oil and jet fuel prices just as air-traffic volumes were finally returning to normal. We also explained that jet fuel is produced from crude oil at refineries through atmospheric distillation, followed by a series of treatments to remove unwanted elements such as sulfur, nitrogen and metals. And we noted that the U.S. is by far the world’s largest producer of jet fuel, and that while the U.S. is essentially self-sufficient regarding jet fuel — producing about as much as it consumes — we export and import relatively modest (and roughly equal) volumes, mostly because it’s more economic to import jet fuel to some parts of the U.S. than to transport it there from domestic refineries.

I'm not going to archive the full article. We'll see in The NY Times and Washington Post later this summer from a different perspective. 

*****************************
Worth Repeating

Why aren't oil companies pumping more? Link here.

• Biden administration cancels Alaska and GofM oil and gas lease sale. -- CBS News.
• I honestly can't make this stuff up.

Jen Psaki: she was not lying when she said, "all options are on the table." 

She was telling the truth, she just wasn't answering the question that was asked. 

It's quite an art: in the old days, reporters were upset that the former White House press secretary would not answer the question. Now, Jen has taken this to a new level. She is not even listening to the question, but like a dog "blah blah blah blah blah dinner blah blah blah" when Jen hears "blah blah blah oil prices blah blah blah blah" she just answers her own question. 

 Yeah, all options are on the table.

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Hurricanes
Preaching To The Choir

Link here.

NDIC Oil And Gas Didn't Post At All Yesterday; Website Down For Fourth Consecutive Day -- Part 1 -- May 12, 2022

NDIC down for fourth day.

• did not send out daily update as "promised"
• did not post daily activity report on legacy site

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Notes From All Over

Why aren't oil companies pumping more? Link here.

• Biden administration cancels Alaska and GofM oil and gas lease sale. -- CBS News.
• I honestly can't make this stuff up.

The lede:

The Biden administration has canceled one of the most high-profile oil and gas lease opportunities pending before the Interior Department. The decision, which halts the potential to drill for oil in over 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet in Alaska, comes at a challenging political moment, when gas prices are hitting painful new highs.

In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area" for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale. The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales."

Federal law requires the Department of the Interior to stick to a five-year leasing plan for auctioning offshore leases. The administration had until the end of the current five-year plan — set to expire at the end of next month — to complete these lease sales.

Beyond Meat? How about beyond the pale? Link here.

• trending on twitter today; that's how bad it is

Trans Mountain pipeline update: link here.

• Canada approves a new $10-billion loan guarantee
• one word: wow

Pre-market look:

• F: down 4%
• GM: down 4%
• RIVN: up 5%
• TSLA: after falling 8% yesterday, down another 2.5% in pre-market trading

Short note today:

• no NDIC report
• taking Sophia to bus stop in a few minutes
• then:
• one hour on treadmill; moderate
• one hour bike ride: hard
• one hour laps in swimming pool: leisurely, non-aerobic