???, link here:
Monday, November 14, 2022
Warren Buffett -- BRK -- Buys Taiwan Semiconductor In 3Q22
Investors.
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
Updates
November 15, 2022:
Original Post
News, link here:
Flashback:
- July 17, 2022: three semiconductors that could go parabolic.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
3Q22:
low: $68
high: $95
Other:
- 52-week high: $145
- today, close: $72.80, after losing a dollar / share
MDU, CRM, GOOGL, CRC Mentioned -- For The Archives -- November 14, 2022
Posting this only for sake of archives, link here:
- Activist investor Corvex Management disclosed a new stake in Southwest Gas (NYSE:SWX) and exited its holdings in Zendesk (NYSE:ZEN), according to the fund's Q3 13F filing.
- The activist fund, run by Keith Meister, added 234,119 shares of Southwest Gas (SWX).
- Corvex exited its stake in Five9 (NASDAQ:FIVN).
- Corvex added to stakes in Femsa (KOF), Salesforce (CRM), MDU Resources (MDU) and Ardagh Metal (AMBP).
- The firm decreased stakes in Alphabet (GOOGL), California Resources (CRC), AES Corp. (AES) and Constellation Energy (CEG).
- Recall Zendesk agreed to sell itself to a consortium led by Hellman & Friedman and Permira for $77.50 per share in cash in June.
Fourteen New Permits -- November 14, 2022
US average net worth for baby boomers, late 60s, early 70s, people like me: link here.
*********************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 39.
WTI: $85.30.
Natural gas: $6.071.
Four permits approved November 10, 2022; and, ten permits approved November 14, 2022:
- #39399 - #39402, inclusive:
- Operator: Hess
- Field: Tioga (Mountrail)
- Comments:
- Hess has permits for four TI-Ives wells, SENE 6-157-94;
- to be sited between 1938 FNL and 2033 FNL and between 399 FEL and 426 FEL;
- #39403 - 39409, inclusive:
- Operators: Whiting (5); MRO (5)
- Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams); Killdeer (Dunn)
- Comments:
- MRO has permits for permits for five wells -- Clifford, Gorder, Boggard, Hegge, and Huseby,
- all to be sited 402 FNL and spaced between 1993 FWL and 2154 FWL
- Whiting has permits for five Olson wells, NWNE 31-156-96,
- to be sited between 915 FNL and 1095 FNL and all of them at 1865 FEL
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 38369, 1,260, CLR, Fuller 6-21H1, Little Knife, t--; cum minimal production;
- 38370, 1,321, CLR, Fuller 7-2H, Little Knife, t--; cum minimal production;
- 38371, 637, CLR, Fuller 8-2H1, Little Knife, t--; cum minimal production;
- 38368, 3,287, CLR, Fuller Federal 2-2HSL1, Little Knife, t--; cum minimal production;
- 38816, 4,008, Grayson Mill, Loyd 34-3 5H, Sandrocks, t--; cum --;
India's Appetiite For Oil -- Bloomberg -- November 14, 2022
From Bloomberg today:
In the oil market, all eyes are on China. As a result, many are missing India, and it’s a big miss.
Petroleum demand in the world’s third-largest oil consumer has been growing faster than anywhere else in 2022, rising by more than 400,000 barrels a day. That’s equivalent to more than 20% of the total global increase.
The country’s vigorous appetite for oil was clear early in the year, but what’s impressive is that it has remained robust in recent months just as consumption growth slowed elsewhere.
Three factors help to explain that resilience. First, a fast-growing economy: India is set to post the second-strongest expansion among the Group of 20 this year, behind only oil-rich Saudi Arabia and well ahead of China. Second, New Delhi has capped retail fuel prices, insulating the public from the impact of $100-plus oil on the wholesale market. And third, the government has turned to Russia for petroleum, benefiting from the discounts offered by Moscow — at times as much as $20 a barrel — to keep its oil sales flowing.
If current trends continue, India’s consumption will average at least 5.2 million barrels a day in 2022, surpassing the previous annual record, which was set in 2019 before the onset of the pandemic at 5 million barrels a day. To put that into context, current demand tops that of Germany, France and the UK combined. And there’s no peak in sight.
Although Indian oil-use growth will slow next year, it’s likely to remain steep by historical standards at 200,000 barrels a day, with the country consuming an average of 5.4 million barrels a day. But there are risks. While current momentum suggests demand will remain healthy, the outlook is clouded by China’s economic slowdown and interest-rate hikes by India’s central bank in an effort to shore up the rupee.--Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion
USAF Memories For The Archives -- November 14, 2022
I flew right seat with this squadron, 1986 - 1989 out of RAF Lakenheath, England.
Operation Eldorado Canyon, 1986: link here.
Wiki.
United States Air Force.
Twenty-eight McDonnell Douglas KC-10 Extenders and Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers took off from RAF Mildenhall and RAF Fairford shortly after 19:00 on 14 April 1986.
These tankers would conduct four silent refueling operations over the 6,000 mi round-trip route the F-111s would fly to target.
Within minutes the tankers were followed by twenty-four F-111F strike aircraft of the 48th Tactical Fighter Wing, flying from RAF Lakenheath and five EF-111A Ravens of the 20th Tactical Fighter Wing from RAF Upper Heyford.
Six F-111s and one EF-111 were designated spares who returned to base after the first refueling was completed without any system failures among the designated strike aircraft.
Is This More Than You Ever Wanted To Know About FracFocus? November 14, 2022
For the purpose of this tutorial, I’m going to filter the data down to eight counties in West Texas’s Permian Basin (Andrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Eddy, Gaines, and Glasscock), for the operator XTO (the onshore unconventionals spin-off of Exxon).
42,850 rows of a data are returned when I apply the filter. Obviously, XTO is a fairly active operator in the Permian Basin.
Next, I want to visualize how much water XTO pumps during each of its completions over time.
So what does the above plot tell us? Mainly, that over time XTO has become more aggressive in the amount of water it pumped in each of its fracs, increasing its largest fracs from from less than 5 million gallons per frac pumped in 2014, to over 25 million gallons per frac in 2018-2019.
Non-water liquid?
There is less of a clear cut trend here. With the exception of one massive outlier in mid-2019, the data looks to be fairly constant.
Looking at the box-and-whisker plot above, it looks like the average frac has about 12,000 gallons of non-water additives, with a skewed upward distribution.
One of the more interesting facets of this data set is the vendor information, from which we can glean all sort of interesting insights. For example, from whom does XTO buy its chemicals and frac sand for its completions? Did the company switch preferred vendors over time?
We can glean a few insights from the above graph:
- It looks like XTO switched to heavily using P3 as a preferred vendor around Q2 of 2018. In Q1, P3 wasn’t used at all.
- Throughout 2018, XTO consistently relied on the following vendors when purchasing products: Ace, Chemplex, Finoric, Nalco, and Sandtrol.
- It looks like Universal Pressure Pumping was trialed as a completions vendor in Q2 of 2018. However, it was not used before or after Q2, so it was likely not picked up as a preferred vendor within the geographic location that the data is filtered by.
Although the bar chart above is limited by time and geographic location, it still offers a snapshot into XTO’s completions and vendor strategy. With this information, O&G companies can gather important vendor insights that may help them to plan completions in the future.
The Weather Page -- November 14, 2022
It's cold outside. It could be a really, really cold winter in north Texas this year. Really cold. Every ten years. and it's been ten years.
Buy, Hold, Accumulate; Laser-Focused On Dividends -- November 14, 2022
Early Afternoon
A couple of weeks ago, I dropped my "new money allocation" from 50% for Buffett blue-chip companies to 40% and added "mRNA 10% new money allocation."
Today at CNBC:
Mid-day
From CNBC at 12:10 p.m. CT, November 14, 2022:
- about the same as at the opening, but
- PSX turned negative, down one cent;
- SRE: up slightly more
Opening
After being a bit down at the opening, oil seems to be coming back:
- DVN: up 1.2%; up 86 cents; trading at $72.72, and well under its 52-week high of $79.40; pays an astounding 7.13%;
- CVX: up 1.32%; up $2.51, following a huge gain last week; hit a new 52-week high today; pays 3% but probably more once everything is factored in;
- COP: up 0.46%; up 62 cents; at $134.57 still below its 52-week high of $138.49 pays 3.34%; see CVX;
- PSX: up almost 2%; up $2.15; trading at $113.53; hit a new 52-week high today; pays 3.42%;
- SRE: up 1.64%; up $2.54; trading at $157.22; this $124-stock is still well shy of its 52-week high, $176.47;
- OKE: up 1.6%; up $1.00; trading at $65.63; still off its 52-week high, $75.07
- SLB: up 2.1%; uup $1.14; trading at $55.95; hit a new 52-week high today;
This is not an investment site; no recommendations; usual disclaimers apply.
What's PFE doing? Holy mackerel, up 3.15%; up $1.50 today; tradiing at $49.09 and well off its 52-week high of $61.71.
Others:
- DE: up 0.7%; up $2.81; trading $409.76; off it's 52-week high of $446.76;
- CAT: up 0.2%; up 48 cents; trading at $237.18; near its 52-week high of $238.40
******************************
"The Band" Announces A New World Tour
Monday -- Evertything Pending, Part 2 -- November 14, 2022
Here we go, link here:
- Drawing investors' attention.
An outlier? FedEx? Link here. Nope. Later, Amazon announced it was cutting 10,000 jobs.
Politics:
Some say Trump has handed the US Senate to the Dems two elections in a row. Link here.
Some use the word "stunning." Link here. Be sure to read the thread at the link.
Even Barron's: big win for Biden.
Last one. The point has been made.
Remember: this is all coming from the "new" Twitter -- which "we" all wanted.
Monday -- Everything Pending -- November 14, 2022
EOG: Fitzsimmons -- link here;
- EOG has ~11,500 "premium" wells that can generate an IRR of 30%+ at $40/bbl WTI and $2.50 MMcf natural gas.
- That being the case, EOG has just been killing it in the high-priced O&G market of 2022. Indeed, YTD EOG has declared $8.80/share of (base+variable) dividends for its shareholders.
- But EOG isn't just about income. Indeed, since my BUY rated article in May 2021, the stock has delivered total returns of 100%.
- With a strong inventory, and new prospects in the Powder River Basin, the Utica, and the Dorado gas-play in South Texas, EOG has a robust and sustainable business model.
Price of gasoline:
- to predict is a fool's errand, but
- link here:
- with the mid-terms over, there is no pressure to keep the price of gasoline down. Nada. Zilch. None.
Diesel:
- we're not going to run out;
- it's a regional problem; self-inflicted;
- data;
- rumors of diesel and gasoline shortages in western Canada;
META: cancels development of health and messaging-focused smartwatch;
- an abrupt end to the company's plans to directly compete with the Apple Watch;
ASML: link here.
Monet: born this date, 1840.
Peter Zeihan: archives.
Earnings:
- this week;
- Tyson: top line beat; bottom line miss; shares up
- retailers need to get rid off excess inventory; consumers will benefit
- consumers need to wait to last minute to get huge bargains this year;
Oil:
- Buffett: it's been an incredible year -- Barron's;
- CVX
- CVX: Motley Fool's choice; late to the party?
- incredible stories today with re: CVX; dynamic link; will change quickly;
- seven best oil stocks now?
- Biden: no plans to meet with MBS at G20; nothing to discuss;
- OPEC:
Permian:
Norway:
- 2022 deadline for tax advantages nears;
- PDOs and NCS; acronyms galore;
Semi-conductors:
Mortgages: US vs the rest of the world
Autos: GM vs Ford
- increasingly different;
- Ford Bronco towing capacity: same as the Honda Odyssey minivan
- hold their value;
- Jeep Wrangler; Jeep Wrangler Unlimited; Porsche 911; Toyota Tacoma, Honda Civic;
Crypto:
- best chart ever: here and here.
- a run on Crypto.com?
- AAX shut down for 7 - 10 days;
- Coinbase is down;
- one knows things are in disarray when some argue that "bitcoin" is not "crypto." Link here.
- Peter Zeihan suggesting the cryptocurrencies moving "tokens" among themselves to make them appear better off than they really are;
Bezos: must be reading the blog;
- $100 million to Dolly Parton to donate to her charity causes;
- will give away his $124 billion net worth during his lifetime; and, folks have trouble with that reprot
The cloud:
Ukraine: wow.
Global population: Africa.
Dallas Cowboys:
- inexcusable; even Stephen A. got this one wrong;
Schwab / TDAmeritrade:
Renewable energy:
- the road to California;
- Sweden: right wing -- said good-bye to Greta
- got rid of the Environment Ministry (like our EPA)
- will build more nuclear reactors
- scrapped government subsidies for EVs
- scrapped the renewable energy plan
WTI -- Monday Morning Coming Down -- Again -- November 14, 2022
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 39
WTI: $87.89. Monday morning.
Natural gas: $6.260
Tuesday, November 15, 2022: 24 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 606 for the year.
None.
Monday, November 14, 2022: 24 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 606 for the year.
35489, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-14T2,
Sunday, November 13, 2022: 23 for the month, 60 for the quarter, 605 for the year.
38381, conf, Oasis, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 3B,
Saturday, November 12, 2022: 22 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 604 for the year.
38271, conf, Whiting, Platt 44-18-2H,
RBN Energy: low water levels pinch midwest condensate takeaway.
Infrastructure constraints in the energy sector come in all shapes and sizes, and don’t think for a second that they only involve pipelines. For many producers of crude oil, refined products and other liquids, the Mississippi River is a critically important conduit for barging commodities to market. Lately though, water levels on sections of the river have been near historic lows, reducing both the volume of liquids that each barge can carry and the number of barges the Mississippi can handle. Among other things, the low water situation has been putting a squeeze on condensate producers in the “wet” Marcellus/Utica, who depend on barges to transport a significant portion of their superlight crude oil down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers to refineries and for blending into Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the situation.
The rapid run-up in U.S. crude oil, natural gas and NGL production through the 2010s put enormous pressure on the nation’s energy-related infrastructure. In what seemed like a flash, the Bakken in western North Dakota became a leading crude oil play, spurring the development of crude-by-rail terminals and takeaway pipelines. In the Marcellus/Utica, production growth made the Northeast self-sufficient in natural gas and resulted in a slew of pipeline reversals, expansions and greenfield projects to enable gas to flow west and south. And over the past five years or so, we’ve chronicled a phenomenal build-out of infrastructure within and out of the Permian, most of it designed to gather and process hydrocarbons in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and transport them to end-users and export markets along the Gulf Coast.
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