Putting The Bakken In Perspective: The Bakken Vs Argentina -- June 15, 2015

This is so cool. Ten years ago I never would have done the math. Shoot, ten years ago I would not have even seen the story. Twenty years ago I would not have cared.

[In the big scheme of things, this is idle chatter. Hardly worth posting.]

Reuters over at Rigzone is reporting:

Argentina's overall crude output rose 3.6 percent in April versus April 2014 to 2.54 million cubic meters, according to data published on the website of Argentina's energy secretariat. The overall production increase was driven by a 9.1 percent jump in YPF output to 1.07 million cubic meters, the statement said.

Let's do the math.

Or more precisely, the arithmetic.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I assume there will be errors in the calculations below.

Step 1. Convert 2.54 million cubic meters to liquid bbls. The most difficult step may be getting the zeros right ... 2,540,000 cubic meters (if that's wrong, this whole exercise is for naught).

Step 2. Convert 2,540,000 cubic meters to liquid bbls -- there are several sites. Conversion factor:   1 Cubic Meter = 8.38641436 Barrels [US, Fluid] =  21,301,492. Another site: 15,976,119 bbls. I have no idea why there is such a discrepancy, but 2.54 million cubic meters is about 20 million bbls of crude oil.

Step 3. 20 million bbls / 30 days = 667,000 bbls / day.

The Bakken choked back AND active rigs at an all-time post-boom low is producing more than 1 million bbls / day.

So, there you have it. I probably made an arithmetic error.

Actually, that 667,000 bbls / day appears to be in the correct ballpark. According to the EIA, Argentina produced about 700,000 bbls / day.

By the way, for those interested, compare to the chart at the EIA linked site with this lede in the Reuters article:

Argentina's oil output rose in April thanks to increased production by state-controlled energy company YPF, the government said on Monday, marking the first year-on-year monthly increase in 2015.

So, four counties in western North Dakota are out-producing Argentina despite all the headwinds facing the Bakken.

Six (6) New Permits -- June 15, 2015

Active rigs:

	6/15/2015	06/15/2014	06/15/2013	06/15/2012	06/15/2011
Active Rigs	76	187	185	214	174

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 26453, drl/NC, CLR, Jamestown Federal 5-17H, Banks, no production data,
• 27853, 392, EOG, Parshall 146-0806H, Parshall, 54 stages, 14.4 million lbs; ICO (1920 - standard EOG model), t12/14; cum 110K 4/15;
• 28862, drl, Hess, EN-Hermanson-LE-155-93-93-3510H-6, Robinson Lake, no production data,
• 29322, 1,121, Oasis Langved 5393 12-3 6T3, Sanish, t4/15; cum 10K 4/15;
• 29462, SI/NC, BR, Teton 8-8-10TFSH, Camel Butte, no production data,
• 29851, SI/NC, WPX, Beaks 36-35HD, Mandaree, no production data,
• 29876, SI/NC, Enduro, NSCU H-717-H2, Newburg, no production data,
• 30066, SI/NC, SM Energy, Norma 1B-26HS, West Ambrose, no production data,
• 30129, SI/NC, EOG, Fertile 61-0410H, Parshall, no production data,

Six (6) new permits --

• Operators: Hess (4), EOG, SM Energy
• Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail), Clarks Creek (McKenzie), Ambrose (Divide)
• Comments: the Hess permits are for a 4-well pad, 27-154-93

Six (6) producing wells completed:

• 27321, 611, SM Eenrgy, Wendi 16-21HS, Whiteaker, t6/15; cum --
• 27324, 740, SM Energy, Chanda 16-21HN, Blooming Prairie, t6/15; cum --
• 27937, 1,030, SM Energy, Elway 1-32H, Camp, t5/15; cum --
• 27938, 764, SM Energy, Manning 1X-32H, Camp, t5/15; cum --
• 27939, 967, SM Energy, Davis 1-32H, Camp, t5/15; cum --
• 29154, 1,799, XTO, Hanson 11X-12B, Murphy Creek, t5/15; cum --

Four producers were abandoned; most were "old"; this was a more recent one:

• 21673, AB/23, SM Energy, Bogner 13-20HS, wildcat, Stark County, 2.3 miles south of Gladstone, a Three Forks well, 2 sections, t7/12; cum 2K 6/13; from the file report:

"This well is uneconomic and has no uphole or leasehold utility." "The Bogner 13-20H is currently down due to a suspected tubing leak and is uneconomic to repair." This was a Three Forks well, stimulated with one stage on 2/16/12, and 4 stages on 5/7/12 with a total of less than one million lbs proppant (about 800,000 lbs).

Trivia: among the six producing wells that were completed, five were SM Energy wells; all of them have names associated with the NFL, although one of them is a bit out of the ordinary if it was indeed named for an NFL personality.

********************************

For Those Keeping Score At Home

Link here. 

Random Look At Four Flaring Multi-Well Pads: Two Off-Line; Two Remain On-Line -- June 15, 2015

Updates

May 22, 2016: these wells have been updated. 

January 18, 2016:  these wells have been updated.

June 16, 2015: after posting the original post below I received an explanation of why the wells on two of the pads have been taken off-line, while two of the pads remain on line. The names of the wells on each pad provide an hint:

• Pad A; Sand Creek State wells
• Pad B: Sand Creek State wells
• Pad C: Sand Creek Federal wells
• Pad D: Sand Creek Federal, Helsingborg Federal wells

Original Post

For background, see this earlier post.

A random look at four Newfield multi-well pads in Sand Creek oil field. Three of the pads are 3-wells pads; one well is a 4-well pad: These are:

• all incredibly good wells
• they are all completed; no fracking occurring in the immediate area
• they all have great crude oil production
• all have considerable natural gas flaring

Two of the multi-well pads have been taken off-line. Two of the multi-well pads are still on-line and are still flaring.

Pad A remains on line; no days off-line: SW 16-153-96, all horizontals run north; wells #27526, #27527, and #27528. The production from #27528 is typical of all three wells on this pad:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	10953	10636	2740	28932	0	28666
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	9344	9849	1607	15010	452	14280
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	9446	9105	1820	15382	431	14699
BAKKEN	1-2015	16	13230	12950	3607	21791	37	2175

Pad B remains on line; no days off-line: SE 16-153-96, all horizontals run north; wells #25074, #25073, and #25072. The production from #25072 is typical of all three wells on this pad:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	13000	12943	1900	24854	0	24584
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	10014	9609	1053	12737	0	12458
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	9698	9766	1055	13989	0	13737
BAKKEN	1-2015	25	24203	23916	4850	38756	0	3875

Pad C, off-line as of April, 2015; last production March 30, 2015; NE 21-153-96, all horizontals run south; wells #28765, #28766, and #28767. Production from #28765 is typical of the three wells on this pad, even down to exactly only 12 bbls produced in the 30-days production in March, 2015, in all three wells.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	0	0	0	6	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	12	0	0	23	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	3226	3598	592	6553	160	6299
BAKKEN	1-2015	30	25653	25010	7185	34991	0	34991

Pad D, off-line as of April, 2015; last production March 31, 2015: NW 22-153-96, all horizontals run south; wells #29268, #29113, #29114, and #29115. Production from #29114 is typical of the other wells on this pad:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	0	0	0	14	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	8960	9213	2388	14869	0	14678
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	11725	11821	3300	15132	0	14880
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	18749	18720	6473	20030	6383	13647
BAKKEN	12-2014	16	15022	14507	6738	20149	1831	1831

Graphic:

There are several story lines here, but I think I will leave it for now.

Random Update On Whiting's Tarpon Federal Wells -- June 15, 2015

Updates

Later, 7:05 p.m. CT: shortly after posting this note, a reader sent a photograph of the Tarpon Federal pad in 20-153-96, taken back on October 10, 2014:

Tarpon Federal, 20-153-96, October 10, 2014

Original Note

Note: in long posts like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. Do not use this as a source. It is for my use only as a way to keep track of the Bakken. You are free to do with it what you want but don't quote me on it or use it as a reference. If this is important to you, go to the source.

For newbies, Whiting's Tarpon wells in Sand Creek have been incredibly nice wells. I have written about them in many posts, but this is where I guess I track them, with IPs and updated production numbers. At least that's where the "family link" takes me.

It's possible I have a graphic of the Tarpon wells somewhere but I didn't quickly find a graphic, so perhaps it's time.

It was initially (and probably still is) confusing to me because Whiting has two areas with Tarpon Federal wells.

Broad overview: Whiting's first Tarpon Federal wells were in the Twin Valley oil field. Subsequently, Tarpon Federal wells were drilled in Sand Creek oil field and that's where most of them currently are:

_______________________________________________________________________

Whiting's Tarpon Federal wells in Twin Valley:

_______________________________________________________________________

Whiting's Tarpon Federal wells in Sand Creek:

That adds up to fourteen (14) Whiting Tarpon Federal wells which agrees with the NDIC GIS map on this date.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Active rigs:

	6/15/2015	06/15/2014	06/15/2013	06/15/2012	06/15/2011
Active Rigs	76	187	185	214	174

RBN Energy: what happens to new NGL infrastructure if production growth slows?

I had expected the Director's Cut to be released today, but The Williston Herald says it will be released this Friday.

Comment: there are some really huge wells being reported today. Then look how far some of these wells have been choked back, or taken off line for operational reasons (neighboring wells being fracked). So many story lines.

For example, look at this well. In the first 15 days of production, 32,000 bbls of oil, and then taken off-line for almost two months (in this case it might have been taken off line because neighboring wells were being fracked) but the result is the same:

28493, 3,444, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 24-20-1RTF, Sand Creek, t12/14; cum 85K 4/15:  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	28	16047	16392	7537	29308	28529	725
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	33684	33258	15369	93905	91577	2267
BAKKEN	2-2015	5	2780	2418	2895	6864	6239	615
BAKKEN	1-2015	0	0	285	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	15	32013	31728	19724	84411	0	84381

There are at least four ways producers are able to cut back in the Bakken: a) complete the wells, but leave them on-line only some days of the month; b) complete the wells, produce every day, but "choked back"; c) drill to depth, but do not frack them; and, d) complete them but then shut them in. It appears that one producer may be doing this on a regular basis; I have to follow a few more months to see; the data is not yet scanned in the file reports to confirm.

The wells that came off the confidential list today whose production was cut way back was/were probably due to operational reasons associated with pad drilling (neighboring wells being fracked).

However, it is clear many wells are being choked back due to the slump in oil prices. I see that when I update production numbers from wells drilled as far back as 2013.

This is the story line that jumps out at me. Many analysts now suggest that the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford et al, not Saudi, will be the swing producer, able to increase/decrease production quickly to meet supply and demand requirements. Someone suggested that it may not be all that easy for the tight / unconventional / shale / US producers to ramp up all that quickly. The argument is that too many rigs are idled, and too many roughnecks have departed the fields because of too little work. The argument is it would take several months to get those workers back and the rigs back up. When I see huge wells (20,000 bo per month) being cut back to 4 days of production or being choked back to 4,000 bo per month, this tells me it will be very, very easy for US unconventional oil producers to ramp up very, very quickly.

When you think about it, it's quite an amazing story. Assuming the producers remain solvent and can continue drilling, they are effectively storing their oil below ground -- not paying direct costs for storage, and yet they can turn on the spigot at a moment's notice. And they can pick and choose which wells they want to access.

The downside: it is my understanding that over time, sand and ceramic (proppant) deteriorate at depth.

The second story line is that some uninformed observes will see a Bakken well produce 20,000 bbls of oil in the first full month of production, and then drop to 1,000 bbls of oil the second month, and will alarm folks suggesting this is how bad the decline rate is in the Bakken.

Of course, it immediately follows that this will play havoc with folks like me who try to understand the Bakken decline rates and how much progress is being made to improve the rate.

So, again, I think the wells coming off the confidential list today that show huge drops in production in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th months, that may be due to operational reasons associated with pad drilling.

This might be a better example, posted last week. It's difficult to know when wells are taken off-line due to operational reasons or for economic/financial reasons, and it's not all that easy to tell when wells are being choked back, but looking at many, many production profiles, one starts to get a feeling.