Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts

Friday, January 21, 2022

Road To Mexico; Learning Spanish With Sophia -- January 21, 2022

Mexico refinery almost $4 billion over budget

This is a huge story.

PEMEX is heavy in debt; worst among all oil companies in the entire world.

Now this.

This is Mexico's mega-refinery: the Dos Bocas project.

  • 340,000 barrel / day
  • purpose: halt crude oil exports starting in 2023
  • now, the project may fail to produce a single gallon of gasoline in 2022;
  • may produce only limited amounts of fuel for several years after that;

Costs:

  • original estimate: $9.0 billion
  • new estimate: $13.0 billion
*******************************
Sophia And Spanish

Sophia and I are taking Spanish lessons on Duolingo together. 

 For a break, we are trying something different. One of Sophia's favorite books is Sisters.

We got identical "graphic novels" at Barnes and Noble, one in English, one in Spanish. Sophia "reads" the one in Spanish and I read the one in English. This is our first time through. It will take many iterations. 

Most interesting: the translations are matched up exactly in each book, but so many idioms. It will be a challenge, but it's great fun learning these idioms. Wish us luck. Here we go.


Don't laugh. Our pronunciation is horrible, but this is our first time going through the books. The good news: my wife, Sophia's grandmother's native language is Spanish -- well, actually, her first language was Japanese but she left Japan when she was about two years old. Her first home in America was in Texas and her next language was Spanish until she started school when she was seven years old. She knew no English when she started school. She spoke Japanese with her mom and Spanish with her dad. 

So, our pronunciation is horrible but Grammy will work with us and help Sophia. I'm a lost cause. LOL.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+23 -- November 29, 2018 -- Mexico To Drill 40 Onshore Conventional Wells For $1.47 Billion

From Ice Age: "mini-ice-age" in a matter of months?  Probably not. I guess it depends on how "matter of months" is defined. For the archives.

From twitter this morning:

***************************************
New England Natural Gas Hookups Update

I had forgotten all about this but the moratorium on new natural gas hookups in Boston and the eastern half of Massachusetts continues. Most of the stories are behind a paywall but if interested google boston moratorium on natural gas hookups update. The ban is effectively "destroying" development in eastern Massachusetts, some say. The moratorium is the result of devastating natural gas explosions earlier this year. MarcellusDrilling calls this a "police state" run amok and I thought my blog was a bit bombastic at times.

*********************************
Canadian Update

Canadian crude oil output continues to grow despite all its problems -- Bloomberg. Data points:
  • daily average output "will" average about 4.59 million bopd
  • 22,000 bopd more than forecast
  • this despite two big producers curtailing production by about 160,000 bopd
Okay, folks this is the lede for that story:
Canada’s lingering crude glut isn’t hindering the country’s growing oil output, according to the National Energy Board’s most recent forecast.
Now this line in the second paragraph:
The raised production outlook comes even as pipeline bottlenecks have driven Canadian crude prices to record lows and prompted some producers, including Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Athabasca Oil Corp., to reduce output by about 160,000 barrels a day, according to estimates by TD Securities Inc.
It's hard for me to accept the writers' premise when they say "Canada's lingering crude glut isn't hindering the country's growing oil output."

It certainly appears that by their own reporting the glut is "hindering" at least 160,000 bopd from reaching the market.

Whatever.
**********************************
Mexico

Yesterday from the blog:
From Platts:
  • Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
  • production to peak at 80,000 beopd
  • development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.

The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boe in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.

750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.

I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."

And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."
So, yesterday, Platts says Pemex "doubled its estimate for the Ixachi oil field, putting oil and gas reserves at 750 million boe.

Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
  • the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
  • the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
  • the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
  • development costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40 wells = $36,750,000 / well 
  • this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
  • Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
Screenshot from the article:

Monday, April 3, 2017

Peak Oil? For Mexico, Yes -- April 3, 2017

Three comments regarding the linked article sent to me by a reader (thank you, very much):
  • my understanding is that reserves are related to the price of oil; one wonders whether that is true with regard to this article;
  • this is not a new story; a quick google search reveals that this has been an under-reported story for quite some time
  • the "9 years" is an interesting time frame; "9 years" is also the time frame in which Saudi's cash reserves could be depleted if the price of oil doesn't trend significantly higher, significantly sooner than later
So, here are the data points from SRSroccoReport:
  • Mexico's existing oil reserves are dwindling so quickly that the country could "go dry" within nine years without new discoveries
  • Mexico's reserves fell almost 11% in 2016
  • once the world's largest crude oil producer, Mexico's proven reserves have declined every year since 2013
  • the cause: record-low drilling activity for the past 3 years
  • crude production has declined every year since 2004
  • production will fall below 2 million bopd this year, the lowest levels since 1980
Two immediate problems for Mexico (similar to Saudi Arabia but for different reasons): a) less oil being produced on a daily basis; b) price of oil is low, could go lower.

***************************
Deep Water to Challenge Shale

Link here at Oilprice.com.
Shell is boasting future profitability at $15 a barrel from its Mars platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The company is adopting drilling techniques from smaller, independent energy firms, which have left the Gulf after finding themselves unable to withstand the investment pressure, and is also transforming its corporate structure, which has already borne fruit.

Saturday, December 31, 2016

More Data On Mexico's Gasoline Imports -- December 31, 2016

The original story was at this post.

Now, additional data is provided, from Platts. Data points:
  • Mexico's record-low refiner production and growing consumer demand: pushed US gasoline exports there to a new high in October
  • gasoline exports to Mexico climbed 1.86 million bbls to 12.08 million bbls in October
  • the previous peak was 11.42 million bbls in December, 2010
  • Mexico is by far the largest importer of US gasoline; take 46% of the 177 million bbls of finished gasoline exported by the US in October, 2016
  • exports push the price of gasoline higher
  • outright price of Gulf Coast pipeline-delivered conventional gasoline, $1.71, highest price since August 18, 2015
  • prime reason for increased exports to Mexico: chronic underinvestment in downstream investments over the years
  • Mexico's refined product production is at its lowest point since Pemex started tracking data in 1995
  • this, despite domestic sales climbing to a record high
  • Mexico is expanding its main import terminal, the port of Tuxpan on Mexico's east coast
This won't be the top energy story of 2016, and it may not even make the top ten list, but it's a huge story and it's going to get much bigger. 

Friday, December 11, 2015

Subterranean Homesick Blues -- December 11, 2015

President Obama is reporting that Mexican crude oil shipments to Europe and Asia are rising as U.S. imports fall. Actually he may not be personally reporting it -- he probably doesn't even know -- but it's one of his agencies reporting that Mexican crude oil shipments to Europe and Asia are rising as U.S. imports fall.
In September 2015, monthly U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico totaled 0.6 million bopd, the lowest level since 1990, and a decrease of about 50% since January 2011.
Meanwhile, Mexico's exports of heavy crude oil to Asia and light crude oil to Europe rose, according to data from Mexico's national oil company PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos (Pemex).

Most of Mexico's exports are of heavy crude oil, which Pemex defines as crude oil with an API gravity equal to or below 27 degrees.
Heavy crude oil volumes sent to U.S. Gulf Coast PADD 3 refineries have fallen as new infrastructure has allowed greater volumes of Western Canadian Select heavy crude oil to reach PADD 3 refineries.
In addition, production of Maya crude oil from the offshore Cantarell field, traditionally Mexico's largest oil field, has decreased significantly.
As Mexican heavy crude oil exports to the United States have decreased, increasing volumes have been sold to Asian markets, especially India, and to a lesser extent South Korea and Japan. Greater volumes of heavy crude oil have been processed in Mexico's domestic refineries, partially offsetting a decline in processed volumes of lighter domestic crude types.
This is an extremely important story to understand. Again, it's not just the total glut of oil, but the type of oil. Also note that despite the fact that the Keystone XL did not get built, more than enough heavy oil is reaching the US from Canada.

I flip-flop on the issue of the Keystone, it seems, every six months. In the big scheme of things, it seems not to be an issue.

Eventually, US lawmakers will see this Mexican story and the move to allow US exports of highly flammable Bakken oil will move forward through the efforts of the highly influential senator from North Dakota, the honorable Heidi Heitkamp. 

Note: American refineries along the coast are optimized for heavy oil. And yet, heavy oil from Mexico into the US has been cut by 50% since the Bakken boom. What gives? The Bakken is light oil; US refiners need heavy oil (Europe needs light oil). Heavy oil from Canada is making up the difference and it's arriving on rail because Americans have a romantic relationship with rail and hate subterranean things they cannot see.

Subterranean Homesick Blues, Bob Dylan

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Keystone Operator To Build Fifth Major Pipeline System In Mexico -- November 11, 2015

The Canadian Keystone operator was selected to build a new pipeline in Mexico. Oil & Gas Journal is reporting that Mexico's federal power company has selected TransCanade to build, own, and operate the Tuxpan Tula pipeline. Some data points:
  • $500 million to build it
  • 150 miles long; 36-inch; 886 million cfd,  from Tuxpan, Veracruz, to Puebla and Hidalgo states
  • natural gas
  • 25-year contract for natural gas supply
  • construction to begin in 2016
  • with this pipeline, TransCanada will have five (5) major pipeline systems in Mexico; $3 billion invested
TransCanada's theme song for the day, we'll get you one way or another:

One Way Or Another, Blondie

Friday, October 23, 2015

US Natural Gas Exports To Mexico Set A Monthly Record High In July -- EIA -- October 23, 2015

This pretty much says it all:


January, 2014: less than 1.5 billion cubic feet per day
July, 2015: approaching 3.5 billion cubic feet per day

*********************************
The Apple Page

Pandora investors worried about ability of Pandora to compete with Apple; stock tanks.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. I report on Apple simply because I am an Apple fanboy and have been since 1984.

From Fortune, linked above:
Long before there was a Spotify or an Apple Music, there was Pandora. One of the earliest streaming music services, it was founded in 2000, and built up a huge listener base—in fact, it is still the largest. But the digital music business has shifted dramatically since Pandora was first launched, and it looks as though the company is having a hard time keeping up with that transition.

On Thursday, Pandora’s stock price tumbled by more than 30% after the company reported a third quarter loss of $85 million, or 40 cents a share.

It’s not that investors were expecting a profit from the company, mind you—Pandora has lost money since inception, and its most recent loss was well within the range of what the market had been forecasting. Revenue for the quarter also came in close to consensus expectations, at $311.6 million.
More:
According to Pandora’s latest financial statements, the company still has about $440 million in cash and investments on its books, so it’s not going to run out any time soon.
But its cash pile is dwindling faster than expected, as the company’s costs continue to rise. That’s part of the reason why it lowered its guidance for the upcoming quarter and for the full fiscal year—it now expects revenue of about $1.15 billion.

Before Apple Music came along, Pandora looked fairly good compared to the rest of the industry. It has about 80 million active users, more than even Spotify has (although the latter has almost caught up). But it has only ever had a tiny fraction of paying subscribers—about 5% of the total. Just a month or so after launch, Apple already has more than twice as many paying customers, with about 6.5 million. Spotify has 20 million paying users.
I was an active user of Pandora years ago, but quickly lost interest, and never subscribed. I don't know why. I'm not interested in Spotify or Apple Music either. I suppose if I were still in the military and running daily and working out in the gym daily I would be tuned into Apple Music but I've changed. I'm not keeping up with Pandora, Spotify, or Apple Music. Spotify is a Swedish start-up; the parent company is now HQ'd in London. I do a lot of bike riding and for some reason I don't like headphones while riding; it may be a safety issue (subconsciously).
 
Britain was the center of the universe for music at one time -- think the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, the British invasion. But America's Got Talent, also. LOL.  And now it's Apple's turn, I guess.

****************************
The Next Big Thing

Over at "the next big thing," I've posted:
Amazon and/or Facebook will get into the flight reservation business (one or the other will buy Travelocity, Orbitz, or start fresh). October 23, 2015. Three stories converge: Amazon reports surprise profit 3Q15; Facebook introduces universal search across entire social network; and, airlines try to win customer loyalty by keeping fliers informed 

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

July 15, 2014 -- Main Street / Wall Street; Miscellanous News From The Bakken And Elsewhere; OPEN BORDERS A Resounding Success --WND

Main Street

This is kind of interesting -- the linked article below -- the opening sentence says it all: "... overall retail sales increased far less than economists expected" and then the writer spends the rest of the article trying to tell us things are actually going quite well...

USA Today is reporting:
Overall retail sales increased 0.2% in June, far less than economists expected. But sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services jumped a better-than-expected 0.6%. Economists say that closely watched measure feeds more directly into economic growth.
Sales of general merchandise, clothing, sporting goods and non-store retail items all rose solidly. Also encouraging: retail sales for April and May were revised upward.
Still, sales so far this year are up 3.8% at an annual pace vs. 4.2% in all of 2013.
"It's just modest growth," Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics says of Tuesday's data. "It's not the breakout report."
Many economists expected consumers to spend more freely this year, driving a stronger recovery. Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the economy. Higher household wealth — a result of a roaring stock market and rising home prices — and sharply reduced consumer debt were expected to fuel the increased outlays.
***************************
Wall Street

Triangle Petroleum announces pricing of $450 mln offering of senior notes; increased from previously announced $350 mln due to high demand: aggregate principal amount of 6.75% senior unsecured notes due 2022. The Notes were sold at par. The size of the offering was increased to $450 mln from the previously announced $350 mln due to high demand.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you've read here or think you may have read here. 

Occidental Petro names Marshall D. Smith as Chief Financial Officer of California Resources: Following its separation from Occidental, California Resources Corporation will be an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on high-growth, high-return conventional and unconventional assets exclusively in California.

Dominion's subsidiary, Dominion Virginia Power, to install Northern Virginia's largest solar energy project to date at Prologis Concorde Distribution Center: Dominion Virginia Power will install more than 3,000 solar panels capable of generating more than 800 kilowatts of electricity -- enough to power nearly 200 homes -- at the Prologis (PLD) Concorde Distribution Center in Sterling, Va. The panels will be installed on the rooftops of two adjacent buildings on its campus and will cover nearly 102,000 square feet.

Trading at new highs: BK, CSX, INTC, KOG, MSFT, WLL.

********************************
Hoping The Stars Align

Philly.com is reporting:
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is set to rule this summer on Dominion's application to export up to 770 million cubic feet of natural gas a day from Maryland, the closest export outlet for producers in Pennsylvania's booming Marcellus Shale region.
"Thanks to technological advances, the U.S. has enough natural gas to meet not only America's consumer demand, but also to export some supply in the form of LNG without significant impacts on domestic prices," Diane Leopold, president of Dominion Energy, told a House Foreign Affairs Committee panel in May.
********************************
Chinese Economy Expanding

At least their economy expanded... more than one can say about the US economy, 1Q14. Reuters is reporting:
Asian stocks held stubbornly steady on Wednesday after China reported economic growth that was just ahead of market expectations, drawing a sigh of relief from investors rather than outright applause. China's economy expanded by 2.0 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, taking annual growth to 7.5 percent. "
The US economy "collapsed" (their word, not mine) in 1Q14.

********************************
Developing Mexico's New Shale Oil Fields

The Dallas Morning Herald is reporting:
Pemex officials believe shale has the potential to provide Mexico with more oil and gas than the country has produced since it first struck oil in the early 20th century. “Mexico has the sixth largest gas shale fields in the world. And you’re all welcome to come join the exploration opportunities,” Emilio Lozoya, Pemex chief executive officer, told an energy conference in Houston in March.
Developing those resources would require up to $1.2 trillion in capital spending, according to an analysis earlier this year by Goldman Sachs. By way of comparison, the world’s four largest publicly traded oil companies spent less than $180 billion worldwide last year.
The hope at the highest echelons of Mexican politics and business is that development of the energy reserves will not only boost government revenue but expand the country’s industrial and manufacturing economy far beyond anything envisioned 20 years ago, when the North American Free Trade Agreement was enacted.
*****************************
ObamaCare: A Washington Success -- Paul Krugman

The Weekly Standard is reporting:
In March 2010, Obamacare was about to be voted upon by the House of Representatives, and the Democrats were in the process of deciding whether to ignore public opinion at their peril.  At that time, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that Obamacare would cost $938 billion over a decade and would reduce the number of uninsured people by 19 million as of 2014 (with a reduction of 1 million prior to 2014 and 18 million in 2014 alone).  Unimpressed, the American people overwhelmingly opposed the intrusive overhaul — with 20 of 21 polls taken that month showing it to be unpopular, most of them by double digits. The Democrats willfully passed Obamacare anyway and lost 63 House seats that November. 
Two years later, the Supreme Court declared Obamacare’s coercive Medicaid expansion to be unconstitutional as written, and the CBO adjusted its projection for the number of uninsured accordingly. 
The CBO projected that Obamacare would reduce the number of uninsured by 14 million as of 2014 (2 million before 2014 and 12 million in 2014 alone), at a 10-year cost of $1.677 trillion — or $739 billion more than the 2010 projection.  (This February, the CBO projected that Obamacare’s 10-year cost would eclipse $2 trillion.)
The op-ed goes on, and then this:
Yet Paul Krugman says that “health reform is — gasp! — working.”  Only in Washington could something that fails to hit even half of its original target be considered a gasp-inducing success
***************************
OPEN BORDERS Policy a Resounding Success -- WND

Of the tens of thousands of communities across the United States, only a handful of communities -- perhaps a dozen or less -- are protesting the relocation of immigrants streaming across the border. The vast majority of US communities have not reacted and are probably ready and waiting with OPEN ARMS to accept these future US citizens. WND is reporting only eleven cities that have concerns (and in one city it's just the "south side").

It appears that this is a two-step program:
  • OPEN BORDERS: entering the US
  • OPEN ARMS: relocation  
***************************
"Most Expensive Music Video Produced At The Time" -- Fleetwood Mac, Opus Collection

Gypsy, Fleetwood Mac

************************
Pulling A Bergdahl

Whenever Hamas and Israel have reached this point in the past, the US has stepped in and convinced Israel it was in its best interests to "stop." This time the US is silent.

*************************
Never Mind

By the way, all those kids streaming across the border under the president's OPEN BORDERS policy has little, if anything, to do with Central American violence. Another inconvenient truth

Runaway/Crime Story, Del Shannon


Wednesday, June 25, 2014

No New Forms In The File For Marathon's 2nd Tyler Well; No New Data; Comes Off Confidential List Today

The file report on MRO's second Tyler well in southwest North Dakota:
  • 26355, drl, MRO, Powell 31-27TH, wildcat, Tyler formation, 1280-acre spacing,
No geologist's report yet, no results. Just the planning forms.

***************************
Mexico Unlikely To Reach Production Goals
Puts The Bakken (and Free-Market Capitalism and Strong Work Ethic) In Perspective

Platts is reporting:
Delays in implementing Mexico's sweeping energy sector reforms will prevent the country from producing over 3 million b/d until at least 2020, an executive with the country's state oil company Pemex said Tuesday.

"We can increase, of course, but not enough to arrive at 3 million [b/d]," Fluvio Ruiz Alarcon, a professional and independent board member at Pemex, said on the sidelines of a Wilson Center event on Mexico's energy reform. "I'm sure we're going to produce over 3 million [b/d] but not by 2018. Maybe 2020, but not before."

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto set the 3 million b/d by 2018 production goal as the country's Congress passed a reform bill to end Mexico's 75-year state oil monopoly in December. But hurdles in finalizing the secondary legislation needed to implement the reforms, a process which includes modifying or creating 21 separate laws and faces significant opposition from the country's pro-business national action party (PAN), have already made this goal seem highly unrealistic.
And then this:
"A lot of us didn't understand how hard it would be to get the secondary legislation passed," said Duncan Wood, director of the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute. "This is far from being a done deal, this is far from over."

New technologies and partnerships with some foreign firms could boost production in the near term by roughly 200,000 b/d, largely in mature, established fields, according Marcelo Mereles, a partner at EnergeA and a former Pemex international affairs advisor.

But production in undeveloped fields, in the Gulf of Mexico or in fields abandoned by Pemex will likely not be close to development by 2018, Mereles said.
Quick: how much oil did Mexico produce on a daily basis in 2012 (all that Gulf of Mexico oil; those huge basins)?
  • 2.6 million bopd. The entire country of Mexico, on-shore and off-shore.
Compare to North Dakota:
  • in excess of one million bopd and only a handful of western counties in one state.
****************************
Mike Filloon's Bakken Update

Unless I missed it, not much about the Bakken. Rather, a passing reference to "Bakken technology" being taken to Texas, and then a very, very long review of shale operations in Texas:
At Split Rock, we try to diversify our dollars across different U.S. basins. By doing this, we gain exposure to the best areas and operators in differing locales. Diversification is important, as it limits our downside, which is important in a volatile sector.
The Eagle Ford is difficult, as the bulk of production growth and downspacing has occurred. We do like the play, but have more difficulty in finding solid operators with good prospects. We believe Matador Resources may be one of the best ways to gain exposure to the Eagle Ford. We also like its exploratory program in the Permian. There is more than just acreage and geology to be considered, as we believe Matador is a top notch operator. It has an excellent well design, which probably evolved from its non-operated acreage with EOG Resources.
As we have said before, EOG continues to be the best unconventional operator in the United States. This has paid dividends for Matador, and in our opinion may continue to do so.