Encana To Re-Brand Itself As An American Company -- WIth Direct Flights To Williston, ND -- October 31, 2019

Ovintiv. Denver, CO. Direct flights to Williston Basin International Airport. Delta and United.

Link here.

“Canada is no longer a place that’s associated with innovation, success in the energy industry,” Tahmazian said, adding that it’s sad because the country has better technology than what is available in the U.S.

Pretty much says it all.

Canada: closed for business. Especially if it's fossil fuel.

Take my breath away!

Take My Breath Away, Berlin
"Top Gun" was released May, 1986. I was the flight surgeon for the 22 TFS, 36 TFW, Bitburg Air Base, Germany. For some reason I associate Lt Col Ted Hailes with some of the best flying experiences I ever had, but I honestly don't recall if it was the 1983 - 1986 tour or a later tour, when I flew with him. At the time I flew with him he was an F-15 pilot but in an earlier life he was an F-4 backseater. Vietnam? I think so. I remember asking him if the flight / fight scenes in "Top Gun" were "realistic." The short answer, "yes. Sort of."

Were the relationships "realistic." I didn't have to ask him. I knew.

I vividly remember the first F-15 flight I ever had as a flight surgeon. I don't remember the name of the pilot, another lieutenant colonel. Scared me half to death. The F-15 sortie? No, the colonel. My goodness, he was good.

It's the living thing -- it's a terrible thing to lose --

Living Thing, Jeff Lynne and ELO   ************************************ Sophia  

The other day, Grammy was driving Sophia to school. Grammy asked Sophia if she knew the "primary" instrument that was being featured on some song on the radio. Sophia, five years old, said/asked, "the violin?"

 

Grammy said that was correct.

 

Some moments later, Sophia asked if the music was "Chinese."

 

Grammy gasped, "Yes, it was Chinese." 

 

Link here.  

Halloween Eve -- 2019

Wow, I'm in a good mood. It looks like ...

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

... it looks like there's a pullback in the market. Time to buy?

I'm hoping there will be at least one more "down" day on the market. 

Big story today: MPC.

Headline over at CNN proves my point -- "the  market sinks". Give me a break. The Dow, trading near record highs, was down .... drum roll ... today ... 0.52% --- that means the "market sinks"? My portfolio was actually up for the day. LOL.

Oh, give me a break. This had nothing to do with the economy. Something changed overnight? LOL. This is all about the mutual funds cleaning up / optimizing their portfolios for the last time for 2019. Locking in their profits. By the end of the year ...

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

... we're going to see a 20% gain in the market ...

• Trump's corporate tax breaks
• cheap money -- the Fed just cut rates again
• headlines suggesting US-China trade war over

... maybe not by the end of the year ... by the end of February, 2020, as folks start front-loading their IRAs. 

Halloween Eve.

Sign on the door: I'm not home -- out with Sophia. That's a lie. I'm blogging, listening to "The Travelin' Wilburys." The house is empty. Two-bedroom man-cave.

Pizza in the oven.

Streaming football on Amazon Prime in a few minutes.

If I get bored, "Perry Mason." I'm into the second season, episode #3.

There is so much on YouTube ... so much I have not discovered.

Does that make me crazy?

Crazy, Gnarls Barkley

Cuts his nose off to spite his face? Did the Houston Astros manager lose the World Series by cutting his best pitcher from the lineup? Joe Buck said this would be the big story coming out of the 2019 series -- not much has been said, but Joe Buck is exactly right. Astros manager -- couldn't win one game at home. Four games at home. Couldn't win one.

Knockin' On Heaven's Door -- MPC To Be Broken Up -- October 31, 2019

This is pretty funny. Those commercials, turning into your parents -- is it "Progressive" that says it can't prevent you from turning into your parents?

Whatever.

My dad was a very conservative investor until he turned 75 years old. Then he became a momentum trader, and did quite well. I'm now approaching that same age. I, too, have decided to do a little bit of momentum trading. LOL. 

Previously posted:

MPC: huge earnings report, announcements. Link here. To spin-off Speedway. Will break itself up into three separate companies: retail (Speedway); refining; and, pipelines. MPC estimates the retail unit has a potential enterprise value of $15 billion to $18 billion (Speedway);

Knockin' on Heaven's Door, Bob Dylan back by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
My dad used to say he would rather be lucky than smart. LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Breaking up the kingdom:

20-Fold Jump In Production -- Old Oasis Well In Elidah Oil Field -- October 31, 2019

Area wells recently fracked. First noted at this post.

This well:

• 17472, 593, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 4-25H, Elidah, t6/09; cum 140K 9/19;

Recent production:

For newbies:

• this well was drilled back in the boom
• a very mediocre well by today's standards
• best production back in 2009: 9,557 bbls in first full month; rapid decline after that
• taken off line last summer; comes back on line this summer
• depending on which months one wants to compare, this well had a 20-fold, or 10-fold, jump in production
• I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken so I'm going to call it a 20-fold jump; there is good justification for that
  
• something magical about the Bakken

Boogie woogie!


I'm so glad our two daughters grew up on Air Force bases; only one thing better -- growing up on US Navy bases.

Oasis Reports 10-Fold Jump In Production From Old Bakken Well -- October 31, 2019

These two wells came off confidential list today:

• 34718, 240, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25E 5B, Banks, t5/19; cum 100K 9/19;
• 34719, 288, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25E 6T, Banks, t5/19; cum 128K 9/19; #20026

Neighboring well:

• 20026, 1,355, Oasis, Nordeng 24-13H, Banks, t7/11; cum 257K 9/19:

Recent production:

For newbies,

• this is an old well, drilled back during the boom, in 2011
• plateaued down to 1,000 bbls/month
• taken off line; comes back on line and production jumps 10-fold
• just some magical about the Bakken

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Huge Day -- October 31, 2019

By the way, wasn't there a lawsuit between EPD and ETP? Link here. 

Twitter one-liners:

• coals to Newcastle: the US has been a net exporter of crude oil to the UAE every month this year
• Rex Tillerson did not deny Exxon's role in creating global warming
• Turkey's oil imports reached their highest level in at least eight years at 703,000 bopd in August, 2019
• the US exported 2.727 million bbls of crude oil in August, 2019
• US crud oil imports from Saudi Arabia were 417,000 bopd in August, 2019, slightly higher vs multi-year low July imports of 395,000 bopd
• Weatherford reports $821 million 3Q19 loss; most of the loss related to reorganization costs
• US oil demand was at 21.062 million bopd in August, 2019, down 296,000 bopd or 1.4% y/y
• Texas crude oil production reached an all-time high in August, 2019: 5/121 million bopd
• US, September, 2019, crude oil production around 12.43 million bopd -- HFI Research, consider the source
• exit US oil production slightly lower not to about 12.8 million bopd; range is 12.8 to 12.85, down from 12.9; HFI Research, consider the source
• India increases its Russian thermal coal imports by 72 percent so far this year -- yes, 72 percent, no typo
• Encana to come US firm with new name; changes could take effect early next year; link here; new name: Ovintiv;
• differentials widened from ~ $13/bbl toward $30/bbl -- Canadian western shale oil -- stranded oil -- Keystone pipeline lead; no typo; diffs widened from ~$13/bbl toward $30/bbl

MPC: huge earnings report, announcements. Link here. To spin-off Speedway. Will break itself up into three separate companies: retail (Speedway); refining; and, pipelines. MPC estimates the retail unit has a potential enterprise value of $15 billion to $18 billion (Speedway);

Refining costs to increase: following Canadian Keystone pipeline spill in northeastern North Dakota, earlier this week; last time this happened; pipeline shut down for quite some time

Pipeline expansion: Seaway eyes expansion; could add 200,000 bopd; link here -- 

• Cushing, OK, to Texas Gulf Coast
• 50/50: Enterprise Products Partners LP, Enbridge

Time to optimize: link here.

Keystone pipeline leak: "ungood" for TC Energy; Bloomberg link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Canadian pipeline incidents (leaks): annual review, O&GJ. 2018:

• total pipeline system grew 75,000 miles
• 19 leaks for the CY18
• about average; pales in comparison to ~ 35 incidents in 2013
• four liquids incidents released a total of .... drum roll ... 175.5 bbls of oil; 94% recovered
• one release considered significant by totaling more 50 bbl
• compare with a single CBR derailment
• we won't go there
• Canadian transmission pipelines delivered more than 1.6 billion bbls crude oil in 2018
• 175.5 / 1.6 billion = 0.0000011%

Canadian CBR: Suncor, MEG, Cenovus eye increased CBR; announced prior to most recent Keystone spill; 

Gasoline pump prices: fall across US y/y. Link here.

• "significantly lower" -- their words, not mine
• average regular-grad gasoline pump prices fell 18 cents to hit $2.61 / gallon
• US gasoline consumption grew by approximately 520,000 b/d to 9.78 billion b/d for the weed ended October 25 from prior's week's 9.59 million b/d

Natural gas weekly storage report: link here.

Working gas in storage was 3,695 Bcf as of Friday, October 25, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 89 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 559 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 52 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,643 Bcf. At 3,695 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range 

Global warming; blamed for record low, early winter temperatures; record snow

• Utah sees record cold of  -43.6 ºF; may have set record for continental US; shoot, it may have set record for North America
• Chicago: 96-year-old snowfall record smashed as Halloween storm sweeps across the US; link here;
• record low temperatures; up to 50 degrees below normal, threaten to wreck rest of harvest season;
• can you say, "grand solar minimum" -- this has been predicted for quite some time;

For the record -- Farmer's Almanac, from this link, screenshot, October 31, 2019:

Eight New Permits -- October 31, 2019

Active rigs:

$54.9	10/31/2019	10/31/2018	10/31/2017	10/31/2016	10/31/2015
Active Rigs	59	69	53	34	70

Eight new permits, #37142 - #37149, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (5); CLR (3)
• Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); Big Gulch (Dunn County)
• Comments: 
• Hess has permits for a 5-well BL-Olson pad in Beaver Lodge, lot 3/section 3-155-96
• CLR has permits for a 3-well Kate pad in Big Gulch, section 19-147-96

Released from confidential list today:

• 29377, drl, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-7, t
• 34207, 60 (no typo), BR, Anderson Ranch 1C MBH, t7/19; cum 29K 9/9;
• 34718, 240, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25E 5B, Banks, t5/19; cum 100K 9/19;
• 34719, 288, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25E 6T, Banks, t5/19; cum 128K 9/19; #20026
  

Economic News -- Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 31, 2019

Jobless claims (link here):

• prior: 212K
• prior revised: 213K
• consensus: 215K
• actual: 218K

Personal income and outlays (link here): 

• personal income m/m, in line: 0.3% 
• prior: 0.4%, revised, 0.5%
• consumer spending, m/m, in line: 0.2%

**********************************

Polling

I assume the Post and Courier poll adds up to 102% due to "upward" rounding.

More interesting is the fact that there are no "undecideds" in South Carolina.

Blue!

Blue, Leann Rimes  

Ms Rimes grew up in Garland, TX, and Arlington, TX, just down the road from where we live. 

Natural Gas Plants -- North Dakota -- Williston Herald Update -- October 31, 2019

Flaring: companies looking to invest billions in North Dakota to "manage" the flaring issue. Link to The Williston Herald. Recommend archiving.

• reports that Bakken companies are building out natural gas infrastructure at a dizzying pace
• companies involved:
• Hess
• Crestwood Midstream
• ONEOK
• currently: 78 - 81 percent of the Bakken's natural gas is being captured
• only 5% is due to "stranded" production -- where infrastructure does not exist
• the problem: bottlenecks -- not stranded gas
• Hess: #2 producer in the Bakken -- I assume the reporter is talking about nat gas production
• six rigs
• those six rigs will produce (sic) about 165 new wells (time-frame not reported)
• currently 1,500 actively producing wells
• inventory of 15 years of drilling
• inventory of 3,000 more wells for Hess
• Hess has already committed about $3 billion toward proving nat gas gathering and processing
• effort began with expansion of the Tioga gas plant ot 250 million cubic feet per day
• a joint venture with Targa Resources for a 100-million cubic feet per dry plant
• Tioga plant will be expanded again to 400 million cubic feet per day, likely in 2021
• that won't include fractionation -- that market is already saturated
• Crestwood Midstream -- on Fort Berthold
• building smaller plants to get them up and running more quickly
• one small facility up and running within seven months
• a second plant now under construction: 120 million cfpd
• investment: $668 million so far and climbing
• Y-grade NGL
• waiting for ONEOK to complete its Elk Creek Pipeline
• will carry up to 240 million bbls per day out of the Bakken
• ONEOK
• already has about 1 billion cfpd of natural gas processing in the Williston Basin
• by 2021, ONEOK plans to have !.6 billion cfpd
• current projects
• two large processing plants in the Keene area, Demicks 1 and 2
• each: 200 million cfpd
• a 200-million-cfpd expansion of Bear Creek in Dunn County
• Demicks Lake plants -- part of an overall $2.3 billion capital plan the company announced last year

Natural gas processing plants in North Dakota are tracked here.

For more, see the tag: NG_Plants_ND.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Halloween Eve, 2019

North Texas: below freezing overnight; 29 degrees this morning; probably colder earlier; one of the earliest dates ever for freezing in north Texas; dry but it's going to be very, very cold for trick and treaters tonight.

Pre-market trading:

• Dow down 75 points
• NASDAQ: down 13 points
• S&P: down 8 points

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Back to pre-market trading:

• AAPL: up 1.5%; up $3.59; back to where it was several days before earnings reported
• GE: up 11% yesterday; not much movement today
• BA: after a bit of a jump yesterday, dropped back a percent; trending lower today
• TSLA: down a bit
• GM: down very slightly
• EW: up slightly yesterday; no pre-market trading yet
• Hey, what about OKE? Didn't OKE report yesterday? 
• forecast: 74 cents
• reported: 74 cents
• OKE: down 2.3% yesterday; down $1.63; trading at $70

Shell: absolutely no idea what to make of this -- mixed stories coming out of Shell -- one story has it that Shell says it is having macroeconomic problems; may affect dividend; stock buyback; another story -- "Shell's earning positively surprise Wall Street" -- but shares in pre-market trading down significantly. Link here:

• posted lower-than-expected decline in earnings
• earnings, on an adjusted basis, slumped 15% y/y to $4.9 billion
• a lot lower than analysts' estmated of 26%
• earnings of $1.18 beat analysts' estimate of 99 cents
• Shell's revenues of $86.6 billion beat analysts' estimates of $73.7 billion
• previous quarter: earnings touched a two-year low and missed the forecast

 

Come On, Economy -- October 31, 2019

First things first: Washington Nationals.

Economy:

• energy: dirt cheap, compared to rest of the world
• interest rates: free money
• corporate taxes: way down
• and yet, as good as earnings "seem" to be ...
• and, GDP at 1.9% ....
• should we be worried?

Mini-fracking boom: catchy headline, but haven't read the article. Consider the source.

Texas economy: remember that story -- I did not post it -- that the Texas economy was fragile; concerns rising as Permian faltering. Talk radio this morning: a bunch of baloney. Oil prices not a concern.  I had the same thoughts while reading the article. If one connects the dots, this appears to be part of a "Hillary war room" to turn Texas blue.

******************************

Back to the Bakken

Flaring: companies looking to invest billions in North Dakota to "manage" the flaring issue. Link to The Williston Herald. Recommend archiving. Details here.


Active rigs:

$54.66	10/31/2019	10/31/2018	10/31/2017	10/31/2016	10/31/2015
Active Rigs	60	69	53	34	70

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: don't bank on a boring propane market this winter.

U.S. propane production has been on the rise for most of 2019, but propane consumption by steam crackers has been reined in by poor economics, and propane exports have been constrained by export-capacity shortfalls. That’s led to a big buildup in propane inventories, which stand at near-record levels as the market prepares for a winter heating season that is forecasted to be milder than normal. So we’re in for only a modest draw on propane stocks between now and spring, right? Not necessarily. There’s change in the air regarding propane supply, cracker demand and export capacity and, as we learned in the balmy winter of 2016-17, the U.S. propane market isn’t nearly as dependent on the weather as it used to be. Today, we assess recent market developments and explains why a big decline in propane stocks is a real possibility.

Propane is an NGL purity product that has two primary uses: as a fuel (mostly for heating, but also for cooking and crop drying, and occasionally for cars, trucks and buses) or as a feedstock for petrochemical plants (steam crackers to make ethylene, or propane dehydrogenation -- PDH -- plants to make propylene). Propane also has two primary sources of supply: refineries and natural gas processing plants, the latter of which separate out mixed NGLs from natural gas streams. These mixed NGLs from processing plants (also known as y-grade) then are sent to fractionators, where y-grade is divvied up into what are called “purity” products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The Shale Revolution has enabled the U.S. to produce more than enough propane to meet its own heating and petchem needs, and to become a major exporter of propane.

Come On Eileen, Dexy's Midnight Runners

Gasoline Demand Spikes -- Might This Have Something To Do With Price? -- October 30, 2019

Updates

October 31, 2019: I completely missed this. But a reader caught it. The reader points out, and I agree, the gasoline demand is due to a) low price; and, b) full employment (maybe not in that order). Much appreciated. See first comment.

Original Post 

In the DFW (north Texas) area, Gas Buddy shows regular unleaded gasoline easily found at $2.10/gallon. In fact, earlier in the week three neighborhood service stations advertised regular unleaded gasoline for $2.08/gallon. It appears the most common price for this gasoline is $2.19/gallon. In Long Beach, CA, the same grade of gasoline appears to be running about $3.69/gallon.

Link here.

If I was allowed only one metric to track / "evaluate" the US economy, it would be gasoline demand.  I have said that many times.

See this link: Through July of this year (2019), the all-time high was last June, 2018, at 9.797 million bbls, followed by August, 2018, of 9.778 million bbls per day. I assume that record could be eclipsed when the August, 2019, data is released.

However, until that data is released, it should be noted that for the most recent week for which data is available (week ending 10/25/19), gasoline demand was 9.784 million bbls per day, which eclipses the August, 2018, data, and is very close to the record set in June, 2018.

Yes, I notice that the data above is a four -week average where the link with monthly data is a monthly average -- slightly different ways of measuring the demand. Be that as it may.

The second point, and this is comparing apples to apples, the rate of growth in gasoline demand in the last few weeks it significantly greater than the rate of growth one year ago.

All things being equal, the recent spurt in gasoline demand is quite remarkable.

This is not the type of graph I would associate with "recession is right around the corner."

Active Rigs In North Dakota Back To 60; Twelve DUCs Reported As Being Completed -- October 30, 2019

Active rigs:

$55.06	10/30/2019	10/30/2018	10/30/2017	10/30/2016	10/30/2015
Active Rigs	60	68	52	34	70

No new permits today.

Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 33688, 304, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 2-19-18-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33684, 368, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 3-19-18-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33682, 63 (no typo), Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 7-19-18-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33687, 311, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 2-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33683, 378, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 3-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33685, 374, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 6-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 33681, 49 (no typo), Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 7-30-31-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake, t10/19; cum --;
• 35418, 567, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 3H, Winner, t9/19; cum --;
• 35417, 648, Kraken, Dragseth 9-4 4H, Winner, t9/19; cum --;
• 35429, 590, Kraken, Knox 16-21 2TFH, Winner, t9/19; cum --;
• 35428, 723, Kraken, Knox 16-21 3H, Winner, t9/19; cum --;
• 34563, 1,065, Abraxas, Ravin 9H, North Fork, t5/19; cum 106K 9/19;

CLR

Locator: 10010CLR.

CLR web page here. 

As of October 30, 2019 (3Q19 earnings) CLR will be tracked here.

****************************************
Updates

May 31, 2024: just before CLR went private (bought by the Hamm family), market cap for CLR was just under $27 billion, that was in 2023.

October 17, 2022: CLR goes private. We will no longer see quarterly reports.

July 30, 2022: 2Q22 earnings presentation.

June 14, 2022, flag day: after years of speculation, Harold Hamm finally pulls the trigger -- will take his company private.

May 5, 2022: 1Q22 --

• additional acreage added in past 18 months: 600,000 net acres
  
• production:
• 195,000 bopd
• 1,074 MMcfpd
  
• plays:
• Bakken: 825,000 acres; 6 rigs; #1 producer;
  
• Powder River: 390,000 acres; 2 rigs; #2 leaseholder;
  
• Anadarko: 450,000 acres; 8 rigs; #1 producer;
  
• Permian: 170,000 acres; 4 rigs; #10 leaseholder;
  

February 14, 2022: 4Q and full year production, link here.

• Bakken, CY2021: 169,636 bopd
• Bakken, 4Q21: 183,141
• total production, all basins, 4Q21: 340,168 bopd

January 26, 2022: update, SeekingAlpha.

January 25, 2022: CLR building a position in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming. 

January 25, 2022: CLR acquires 172,000 net acres in Wyoming, Powder River Basin, for $2,600 / acre. 

November 6, 2021: CLR enters the Permian.

October 27, 2021: 3Q21 -- some preliminary production numbers; earnings release has been re-scheduled for November 3, 2021.

October 16, 2021: 2Q21, anticipating 3Q21.

August 6, 2021: CLR will be drilling an exploratory well in Vernon Parish, Louisiana, target Austin Chalk, just west of TMS.

August 5, 2021: 2Q21 transcript.

February 17, 2021: 4Q20 transcript; Q&A here;

February 17, 2021: February, 2021 corporate presentation;

February 17, 2021: CLR acquires 130,000 net acres in Powder River Basin, Wyoming, for $215 million, all cash deal.

February 12, 2021: damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead;

July 15, 2020: damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.

1Q20: link here -- 

• production 
• 360,000 boepd (56% oil)
• up 9% year-over-year
• shutting down in the Bakken

4Q19 and full year, 2019: press release here. 

• full year:
• net income: $775.6 million
• $2.08 / diluted share
• $838.7 million adjusted net income, or $2.25/diluted share (non-GAAP)
• production:
• 340,395 boepd, up 14% y/y
• 197,991 bopd, up 185 y/y
• $3.1 billion of cash flow from operations;
• $608 million free cash flow
• #1 oil producer in both the Bakken and Oklahoma
• Bakken: 148,417 average daily oil production, up 14% y/y
• south: 41,695 bopd; up 43% y/y
• 4Q19:
• $193.9 million net income, or 53 cents/share (one-penny beat)
• $203.6 million adjusted net income, or 55 cents per diluted share
• production:
• 365,341 boepd average daily production, up 13% y/y
• 206,249 bopd average oil production, up 10% over 4Q18
• 2020 CAPEX and guidance
• $2.9 billion to $3.0 billion of cash flow from operations
• $350 million to $400 million of free cash flow
• budgeted at $55 WTI and $2.50 HH; 
• $5 change in WTI, approximate $300 million in cash flow

3Q19 earnings presentation here. 

3Q19: From the press release:

• $158.2 million in net income in 3Q19, or $0.43 per diluted share
• $199.4 million adjusted net income in 3Q19, or $0.54 per diluted share (non-GAAP)
• 198,074 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 20% over 3Q18
• 332,315 boepd average daily 3Q19 production up 12% over 3Q18
• Bakken: 145,436 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 13% over 3Q18
• 57 gross operated wells deliver 2,313 boepd average/well initial rate
• South: 44,854 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 62% over 3Q18
• SpringBoard exceeded 3Q19 target by 31%: 23,641 bopd; 4Q19 target raised to ~24,000 Bopd
• CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate
• $187 million of share repurchases executed through October 29, 2019
• quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share in November 2019

Continental Resources (CLR) -- brought forward from "Bakken operators."

• CY18 and 4Q18 results; full year income at $1 billion;  4Q18 Bakken production: 186,934 bopd; 183,836 boepd; 2018 was "break out year" for debt reduction; cash build;
• 3Q18 results; Bakken production, 167,643 boepd; added two rigs to the Bakken; now with eight; many records set; earnings beat expectations; presenation;
• 2Q18 presentation: step change in well performance across the Bakken
• May, 2018, presentation: 796,000 net acres in the Bakken; 161K boepd, up 48% over 1Q17; 1,100 mboe EUR type curves ($7.9 million) vs 980 mboe EUR type curves in 2017; see SeekingAlpha article;
• March, 2018: 1.1 million-bbl EUR type curves; 
• August, 2017: 806,000 net acres in the Bakken; 1.1 million boe EURs
• CLR transfers 67 wells to Kraken Operating, October 27, 2016
• August, 2016: sells 80,000 non-core Bakken assets; $222 million;
• 2Q16 corporate presentation;
• 1Q16 corporate presentation; 
• 2015 corporate presentation: CAPEX cut 41% due to oil price slump
• 2014 analyst day: 1,197,884 net acres (892,824 ND; 305,060 MT); 109,000 boepd; 8 wells in each MB and TF1, 4 wells in TF2; enhanced completion --> 25% uplift in EUR; long-stroke pumping units;
• 2Q14:  ND Bakken - 95K boepd; MT Bakken - 14K;
• 22 rigs beginning of 2013 in the Bakken; will reduce to 20 rigs due to efficiencies
• Well cost: $8.3 million; goal - $8.2 million by year-end 2013
• 1Q13: net Bakken production: 76,900 boepd; gross >100,000 boepd; 1.2 million acres;
•  785 million boe proved reserves year-end 2012; 54% increase YOY
• 2Q12: average production of 94,852 boepd
• 4Q11: 901,098 net acres
• 4Q11 production: 75,219 boepd
• 2009 production: 14,000 boepd
• EUR: 603K boe per well 

Keystone Pipeline (Not Keystone XL) With Leak In Northeastern ND -- Extent Unknown -- October 30, 2019

Link here.

• current leak near Edinburg, ND, Walsh County; discovered Tuesday, October 29, 2019
• when discovered, flow turned off
• Edinburg: about 45 miles northwest of Grand Forks, ND
• this was the pipeline that was built in 2010
• goes through seven US states
• carries Canadian heavy oil from western Canada
• extent of leak unknown; should know more Thursday, October 31, 2019
• it has experienced spills in the past
• 2011: 14,000 gallons (350 bbls) leak in southeastern ND, near the South Dakota border
• 2017: 210,000 gallons (5,000 bbls) leak in northeastern SD, near the ND border

CLR 3Q19 Earnings -- October 30, 2019

From the press release:

• $158.2 million in net income in 3Q19, or $0.43 per diluted share
• $199.4 million adjusted net income in 3Q19, or $0.54 per diluted share (non-GAAP)
• 198,074 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 20% over 3Q18
• 332,315 boepd average daily 3Q19 production up 12% over 3Q18
• Bakken: 145,436 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 13% over 3Q18
• 57 gross operated wells deliver 2,313 boepd average/well initial rate
• South: 44,854 average daily 3Q19 oil production up 62% over 3Q18
• SpringBoard exceeded 3Q19 target by 31%: 23,641 bopd; 4Q19 target raised to ~24,000 Bopd
• CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate
• $187 million of share repurchases executed through October 29, 2019
• quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share in November 2019

Note, repeating:

• CLR STACK: two, 7-well oil units deliver exceptional results: 38,320 bopd combined initial rate

Random Update Of An Old Bakken Well In Squaw Creek; No Evidence Of A Re-Frack -- October 30, 2019

Until recently, I had not seen FracFocus with frack data before 2012 (in the Bakken). That doesn't mean FracFocus did not have such data or that wells were not fracked before 2012 (obviously not the case), it simply means I had not see FracFocus data for Bakken wells fracked before and during 2012; I had looked at a lot of those wells that were drilled / completed before and during 2012.

Today, I see that FracFocus has the data for a well that was fracked in late 2011, a one-day frack on December 30, 2011, and tested on January 4, 2012. FracFocus shows 2.1 million gallons of water, 82% by mass; sand, about 6.5% by mass. Neither FracFocus nor NDIC suggests this well was ever refracked.

The well: 

• 20238, 180, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35H, 30 stages; 3.3 million lbs; Squaw Creek, t1/12; cum 216K 8/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	27	13035	13006	17058	18341	1650	13220
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	20	5561	5390	19246	7824	4299	2554
BAKKEN	5-2019	1	30	0	0	42	0	39
BAKKEN	4-2019	6	252	470	385	692	438	100
BAKKEN	3-2019	12	411	421	157	579	148	216
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	817	835	250	1866	714	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	1258	1223	420	2101	1248	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1390	1481	394	2182	1255	0

If the "average" production just prior to 8/19 can be taken to be about 1,500 bbls/month, then the jump in production to 14,483 bbls (normalized to 30 days), then we have a 10-fold increase in production.

This well had been previously identified/listed as a well of interest but that frack data had not been posted until now. 

US Crude Oil Inventories Surge; Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- October 30, 2019

EIA: weekly crude oil inventories (remember, API: small build, less than a million bbls, reported yesterday):

• weekly change:  increased by a whopping 5.7 million bbls
• WTI: drops a percent; now under $55
• OPEC basket: drops about a percent; $61 and change
• break-even for Saudi Arabia: $86.50 (link here; IMF)
• US crude oil inventories: at 438.9 million bbls, now 1% above the five-year average
• analysts: probably just a timing thing, a mismatch with export dates; not to worry
• refiners: operating at 87.7% capacity; perhaps a bit better than last few weeks but incredibly low
• MPC: largest US refiner -- down 2.3%; down $1.56
• jet fuel? elites flying more than ever -- atmospheric CO2? what atmospheric CO2? -- jet fuel supplied was up 9.6% compared with same four-week period last year 
• sadly, the grounding of 737 MAX isn't helping; much more fuel efficient; and so it goes

*******************************
Re-Balancing

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 39	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 40	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 41	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 42	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1
Week 43	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1
Week 44	September 26, 2019	2.4	419.5
Week 45	October 2, 2019	3.1	422.6
Week 46	October 9, 2019	2.9	425.6
Week 47	October 17, 2019	9.3	434.9
Week 48	October 23, 2019	-1.7	433.2
Week 49	October 30, 2019	5.7	438.9

***********************************

Miscellaneous

Jeffrey: homicide? Well, duh.

FDR: considered one of the best presidents ever; under whose watch did "Pearl Harbor" occur? Remained neutral until that attack. Neutral? With all that was going on in Europe? Just thinking out loud. 

Trump: gets almost the entire Mideast to join the US in sanctions on Iran. Timing is interesting. Baghdadi's dead. Haven't heard much out of North Korea lately. Just thinking out loud.

The market:

• Dow: absolutely flat ... 0.0000
• YUM: not so yummy. Drops 10%
• PCG: investors lose $4.1 billion in four trading days; CalPERS -- huge loses; previously posted;