The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/21/24

Monday, October 21, 2024

Chart Of The Day - October 21, 2024

Locator: 48626ARCHIVES.

Tag: Bill Ackman, Netflix, green hydrogen, Spain, Netflix, Intel.

Chart of the day, link here:

Or is this the chart of the day, link here:

Green hydrogen, link here. I'm shocked. Shocked. And, in Spain.

Three New Permits; Petro-Hunt Cancels Seven Permits -- October 21, 2024

Locator: 48625B.

WTI: $70.49.

Active rigs: 39.

Three new permits, #41259 - #41261, inclusive:

Operators: CLR (2); BR
Fields: East Fork (Williams County); Lone Butte (Dunn County)
Comments:
BR has a permit for a Tilton Diamond Forest well, SENW 18-147-97; to be sited 2335 FNL and 2366 FWL;
CLR has permits for two Putnam wells, NENW 25-156-100, both to be sited 275 FNL with one 1980 FWL and the ohter 2012 FWL.

Seven permits canceled:

Petro-Hunt: Marlyn, Laura, and Bob, NENW 29-163-99, Divide County; Kelly, Kade, and Jeffrey, SWSE 8-163-100, Divide County; and USA, lot 2, section 1-153-95, McKenzie County;

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- October 21, 2024

Locator: 48624CRAMER.

Later: holy mackerel! Nvidia is up 4% at the close; up $5.50. And, AAPL, also doing nicely, up 0.6%, up $1.48 at the close. Inside SCHB ETF, AAPL is the #1 holding, and NVDA is the #3 holding. MSFT is the #2 holding which was up slightly today. Each of the three between 5% and 6% of the ETF's holdings. After hours, NVID continued to move up. At 4:07 p.m. CDT, NVDA is trading at $144.04, up $6.04 / share, for the day.

Nvidia: looks like it is ready to break out. Wow! This is according to CNBC's senior analyst. I value his opinion as much as I value Warren Buffett's.

BRK-B: speaking of which (Warren Buffett), how did BRK-B do today, on a day that NVID was up 4% and AAPL was up 0.6%? BRK-B was down (negative) for the day, as was SCHB.

Utilities: hit records earlier in the day. Apparently that did not include SRE. That's fine. It's had quite a run. Up 25% in the past year; up 20% in the past six months. And pays 3% -- decreasing as the share price appreciates.

CNBC analyst spoke to that T Rowe story earlier today about Treasuries returning to 5% within six months.

His analysis: poppycock. LOL. If the Fed cuts rates, and and Treasuries go higher, it simply eans the economy is improving; the economy is getting better. This is not rocket science. "Fast Money" panel had it exactly right.

This must have been a slow business news day. Ten-year treasuries are currently / today yielding 4.2%. Link here. T Rowe said we would see 5% within six months. Oh, give me a break. We've seen this movie. We've been here before. We did just fine. We're not even talking a full percentage (100 basis points).

Meanwhile, Nvidia jumps 4% today, held gains after hours and added another 80 cents (almost a buck) and the chart suggests NVID is "ready to break out." That's the story, not the 10-year Treasury bill. Wow, amazing what gets folks excited. Having said that, I've never understood bonds. Better said, I've never understood the fascination of investing in fixed income.

Another view, Paul Tudor, October 22, 2024.

Original Post

Sara Eisen hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Sara Eisen's first hour on CNBC.

Sara is off today. A day without Sara is like a day without sunshine. Speaking of which -- another beautiful day in north Texas today.

Costco magazine: apparently the third largest circulation among US magazines. It is delivered to more households across the United States than Better Homes & Gardens, The New Yorker, and The Atlantic combined. Cost of subscription? Expensive.

The magazine is mailed out to “executive” members, who pay double the yearly membership fee of $65 for the magazine and other perks.

(Another 300,000 are distributed via Costco warehouses.) Its reach is so vast that Costco Connection is now the nation’s third largest magazine by print circulation, behind AARP: The Magazine and The AARP Bulletin. So, in a sense, Costco Connection is #2. Stand-alone post coming.

But as for me, I'm off to Costco now. Good luck to all.

The election: "... a knife fight in a phone booth." If it comes down to a close race in Pennsylvania, we may not know results until Friday or Saturday following election day on Tuesday. Pennsylvania has huge mail-in ballot history and counting paper ballots cannot even begin until election day; Pennsylvania is known for very slow counting of paper ballots.

Nvidia: all-time high for NVDA today.

Apple: link here.

Robinhood: setting records.

Psychedelics: going mainstream. The conversation began a long time ago (on the blog). Link here. Note: this is a J&J play. Ketamine. So, go for it: Lilly's weight loss vs J&J's psychedelics. I'm going with the psychedelics. I used ketamine as a general anesthetic on patients in the field while in the Mideast years ago. A miracle drug.

Schwab update:

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1 -- October 21, 2024

Locator: 48624CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

David Faber, Carl and Jim.

Cramer: again, very bullish, and discusses his thoughts on the tailwinds. Back to the Fed rate cut cycle -- Cramer says absolutely no hurry.

AAPL: referenced a WSJ article on Tim Cook / Apple today. Link here. Market open, Dow negative; AAPL green, as is Nvidia. Whoo-hoo. And CVX. Another whoo-hoo!

Personal investing: another large addition to this position -- SCHB. Top ten holdings. That link will take you to full list. And it pays almost 4%.

Machinists' union spokesman: not recommending union members agree to the contract. The union leadership is not telling their members to vote against the current proposal but they are saying they are not happy with the company's offer. The annual bonus of at least 4% is "new" -- since the previous offer.

David Faber: noting that Trump will contest the results if initial results are not in his favor. Faber says it will be a long night, or a long month, or a four-year national nightmare.

Buzz: in light of Netflix results, no one can understand how/why Disney can't get its act together.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Judy Faulkner -- October 21, 2024

Locator: 48616QUAKERS.

Bio: if you have time to read only one wiki-bio today, this is the one to read. Judy Faulkner.

Forbes, October 19, 2024:

From wiki with edits:

Judith R. Faulkner (born August 11, 1943) is an American billionaire businesswoman who is the CEO and founder of Epic Systems, a healthcare software company located in Verona, Wisconsin.
Faulkner founded Epic Systems in 1979, with the original name of Human Services Computing. In 2013, Forbes called her "the most powerful woman in healthcare", and as of July 2024, estimated her net worth at US$7.8 billion.
Faulkner's parents inspired her early interest in healthcare; her father, Louis, was a pharmacist, and her mother, Del, was the director of Oregon Physicians for Social Responsibility. She was raised in the Erlton neighborhood of Cherry Hill, New Jersey, and graduated from Moorestown Friends School (Quaker school) in 1961.
She received a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Dickinson College (major Quaker influence) and a master's degree in computer science from the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
In 1979, shortly after receiving her master's degree, Faulkner co-founded Human Services Computing, with Dr. John Greist (psychiatrist), Human Services Computing, which later became Epic Systems, began in a basement at 2020 University Avenue in Madison, Wisconsin.
The company was started with a $70,000 investment from friends and family but has never taken investment from venture capital or private equity and remains a privately held company.

In fact, Faulkner prides herself in the fact that Epic is homegrown; they have never acquired another company, and Faulkner has stated they will never go public. Epic Systems now holds the medical records of over 325 million people. Faulkner and her family currently own 43 percent of Epic Systems.

It would have been fascinating to see her business plan in 1979 -- starting with that $70,000.

One wonders if Faulkner's path crossed that of Dr James F. Crow, a highly influential physician with ties to the Quakers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Link here. He received his undergraduate degree from Friends University, Wichita, Kansas, 1937. From wiki:

James Franklin Crow (January 18, 1916 – January 4, 2012) was Professor Emeritus of Genetics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and a prominent population geneticist whose career spanned from the modern synthesis to the genomic era.

He was president of both the Genetics Society of America and the American Society of Human Genetics. He was a member of the National Academy of Sciences, The American Philosophical Society, the World Academy of Art and Science, the National Academy of Medicine, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and Foreign Member of the Royal Society (ForMemRS).

All this would have caught my attention regardless, but about two weeks ago, after reading about President US Grant, I became interested in the Quakers. I ordered, from Amazon, The Quakers In America, and found it absolutely fascinating. Absolutely fascinating. Then, coincidentally and pure serendipity, I come across this article on Judy Faulkner.

Personal note for the grandchildren: perhaps one of the first, if not the first really big electronic medical record systems was with/through the military: CHCS I and CHCS II. From November 21, 2005, this link.

Incredibly phenomenal systems. Again, Lt Gen Charles H Roadman, II, link here, played a huge role in the success of that system.

I was the commander of the USAF hospital at Langley AFB, VA, and General Roadman tasked us with beta-testing the CHCS II modules as they were delivered to the Air Force.

It's my recollection our hospital was the only Air Force medical facility so tasked but I could certainly be wrong. It was an incredible endeavor for the physicians and nurses to beta test these modules but they did and they came through with flying colors, as they say. It was truly amazing what these medics -- support staff, nurses, physicians, administrators -- accomplished -- including multiple deployments to the Middle East to support troops there. It was an exciting and rewarding period of my life.

The Grayson Mill Hovland Wells Southwest Of Watford City

Locator: 48615B.

Manic Monday -- October 21, 2024

Locator: 48614B.

Election: two weeks tomorrow, it's over. We could know outcome by 8:01 p.m. EDT. But if the East Coast doesn't give us the answer then we wait for Wisconsin, CDT.

Two weeks before the election (although early voting has started across many (most?) states.

US equity markets: Dow and S&P 500 will open at record highs and immediately drop 0.5% to 1.5%.

Kenvue: shares surge.

Boeing: machinists reach deal with company?

Hubris, smugness, IYKYK, hope springs eternal, an inflation hedge: it may be, but there must be some reason why folks still invest in oil.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.82.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 553 for the year
None.

Monday, October 21, 2024: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 553for the year
40593, conf, CLR, Doe 2-23HSL,
40265, conf, Silver Hill Energy, UT 158-93-12-1-20MBH,

Sunday, October 20, 2024: 37 for the month; 37 for the quarter, 551 for the year
40266, conf, Silver Hill Energy, CO 158-92-7-6-1MBH,

Saturday, October 19, 2024: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter, 550 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Shell's Pennsylvania petchem complex finally firing on all cylinders.

Shell’s petrochemical complex in Western Pennsylvania has had plenty of challenges on its way to startup and full operation. Announced a dozen years ago, the project was set back by COVID-related construction delays and a rougher-than-expected production ramp-up. But that’s all in the past now (fingers crossed) and the ethane-rich Northeast finally has its first big ethylene plant. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine Shell’s return to plastics and what it took to get there.