Random Update Of Two Re-Fracked MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field And Then Maybe Re-Worked -- #17797, #18382 -- June 7, 2018

Updates

January 18, 2020: production updated for #18382 (see original post below)

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2753	2637	990	3218	2822	33
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	3238	3143	1284	4103	3701	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	3397	3476	1445	4303	2712	1185
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	3750	3827	1640	4712	3500	800
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	4409	4345	1942	5538	4798	263
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	4299	4485	1970	5584	4693	427
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	4788	4791	2255	6103	4816	787
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	4799	4912	2425	6278	5077	710
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	5843	5766	3177	7013	6428	24
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	5443	5477	3190	5218	4366	328
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	5279	5220	2350	4079	841	2706
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	5513	5496	2637	5133	3073	1512
BAKKEN	11-2018	26	4797	4832	2771	4400	2371	1568
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	46	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	23	5086	5117	3081	4842	4016	380
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	9094	8993	6144	8412	7233	409
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	9664	9605	7250	8932	7459	659
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	11324	11444	12261	10562	9527	123
BAKKEN	5-2018	17	7494	7198	8777	5412	4279	554
BAKKEN	4-2018	10	4435	4497	7951	3251	1220	1496

#17797:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	2722	2818	1186	2736	1313	1060
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	2680	2619	1144	2690	1014	1310
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	2695	2705	1157	2384	1226	797
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	2646	2682	1133	2445	2063	18
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	2663	2574	1021	2229	1759	105
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	2474	2733	945	2349	1751	251
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	2658	2618	1145	2647	1597	685
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	3674	3611	1610	3319	719	2176
BAKKEN	3-2019	25	3350	3410	1699	3458	1134	1956
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	12	1553	1490	709	1584	1234	184
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	4594	4653	1987	4652	83	4080
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	4597	4612	2251	4615	7	4157
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	6190	6262	3605	6421	5320	515
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	7039	6943	4126	6895	6145	112
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	7893	7796	5232	7870	7170	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	8666	8756	6813	8598	7221	627
BAKKEN	6-2018	29	9681	9488	9138	9141	8312	32
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	11760	11912	16586	9377	5436	2995
BAKKEN	4-2018	21	8574	8564	20108	6534	592	4899

 

Original Post

The importance of this post: this provides a glimpse what the future could hold for the Bakken in general. This is not new. We've talked about this for years.

A reader noted two nice refracked MRO wells in the Bailey oil field. For newbies: MRO appears to have had an aggressive re-frack program in the Bailey oil field. 

I had #17797 on my "wells of interest" page; #18382 was added to that page today. Both wells were re-fracked in 2015; the reader suggests that the recent jump in production is due to "re-working" and not another re-frack. FracFocus does not have any data suggesting a recent frack (2017 - 2018).

An earlier post on #17797 here.

The two wells the reader noted:

• 17797, 499, MRO, Lazy DE 24-7H, Bailey, t8/09; cum 429K 11/19; re-fracked 1/15;
• 18382, 267, MRO, Lazy De 34-7H, Bailey, t6/10; cum 382K 11/19; re-fracked 1/15;

Production profile for these two wells.

• 17797 (see link above for production at time of re-frack):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2018	21	8574	8564	20108	6534	592	4899
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	0	0	1	2	0	2
BAKKEN	1-2018	2	131	0	1070	108	0	88
BAKKEN	12-2017	1	15	0	13	14	0	12
BAKKEN	11-2017	14	1730	1912	755	1366	0	1096
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	3979	3954	1529	3142	0	2524
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	3950	3961	1594	3107	0	2495
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	4094	4141	1481	3208	0	2575
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	4242	4172	1400	3314	0	2665
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	4478	4491	1474	3481	0	2813
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	4893	4914	1821	3787	0	3078
BAKKEN	4-2017	15	2187	2132	705	1707	0	1379
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	4623	4662	1484	3592	0	2902
BAKKEN	2-2017	27	4056	4088	1387	3189	0	2599
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	4770	4749	1649	3662	0	2966
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	5044	5046	1787	3167	0	2441

18382:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	17	7494	7198	8777	5412	4279	554
BAKKEN	4-2018	10	4435	4497	7951	3251	1220	1496
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	0	0	5	1	0	1
BAKKEN	1-2018	1	45	0	308	43	0	34
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	21	2382	2410	1111	1736	0	1380
BAKKEN	10-2017	20	1907	2046	1007	1427	0	1114
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	3337	3331	1490	2514	0	1968
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	3635	3690	1518	2633	0	2049
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	3670	3629	1542	2695	0	2107
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	3677	3662	1580	2694	0	2111
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	3736	3834	1609	2786	0	2192
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	3948	3853	1594	2821	0	2213
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	4072	4110	1698	2952	0	2332
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	3883	3893	1608	2816	0	2233
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	4529	4446	1835	3233	0	2562

18382 ( production at time of re-frack in 2015 -- notice the jump from 800 bbls to 13,000 bbls/month):

BAKKEN	7-2015	31	7388	7942	2947	4892	2452	1466
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	6130	5703	2295	4280	2251	1197
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	7009	7069	2721	5064	3668	469
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	12356	12538	6011	7983	804	5678
BAKKEN	3-2015	25	11292	10949	5789	7244	1221	4672
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	11880	12158	5427	7780	2666	3677
BAKKEN	1-2015	20	13208	12763	3763	8739	4662	2549
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	26	686	928	434	540	53	258
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	793	694	466	656	305	86
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	878	915	498	692	134	278
BAKKEN	7-2014	29	771	672	477	619	109	258
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	796	916	590	620	57	305

Wow, Did Anyone See This Coming? Do Any Dots Connect To The Trump Tariffs? -- June 7, 2018 -- Words That Make Me Tingle When Seen In One Sentence: Solar, Slashed, Surprise

From oilprice.com:

Market researchers are in a rush to lower their solar capacity addition forecasts for this year after China surprised everyone by announcing it will not issue approvals for any new solar power installations this year and will also cut the feed-in tariff subsidy that has been a major driver of the solar business in the country that accounts for as much as 50 percent of capacity.

Reuters reports that companies including IHS Markit and Wood Mackenzie have already revised their solar additions forecasts for the year.

IHS analysts slashed their projections by between 5 and 10 GW of new additions, although in China alone, they saw a potential reduction in new solar capacity of up to 17 GW. Earlier this year, the firm had forecast Chinese solar capacity additions of 53 GW.

Wood Mackenzie, for its part, expects new Chinese solar capacity to be 20 GW lower than earlier forecast, which was 50 GW.

GMT Research also reduced its China new solar capacity additions forecast by as much as 40 percent to 28.8 GW, with one analyst saying, “When the industry talks about China, it’s always about how demand in the region exceeds expectations. That is not going to be the case anymore.”

This is not rocket science. I don't know if anyone saw this coming -- I did not -- but the timing is interesting.

Random Happenings In The Bakken -- June 7, 2018 -- Off The Net For Awhile

This well was recently re-fracked: full update at this post --

• 18991, 1,053, QEP, MHA 1-19H-150-90, Deep Water Creek Bay, t9/10; cum 272K 4/18;

This well just went off line:

• 19105, 558, Oasis/Zenergy, Aune 32-29H, Wildcat/Eightmile, Bakken, southwest of Williston, north/west side of the river, t11/10;  just went off line 4/18; nothing going on in this area; no sundry reform;

This well recently came back on line and shows very slight jump in production:

• 18679, 1,371, CLR, Medicine Hole 2-27H, Jim Creek, Bakken; t7/10; cum 195K 4/18; nothing go on in this area; neighboring well on line all this time; Medicine Hole wells are poor wells; no sundry form to explain slight jump in production; FracFocus negative;

This well was just taken off line (4/18):

• 18365, 1,379, EOG, Liberty 8-01H, Van Hook, Bakken; t7/10; cum 334K 4/18; far to the south, EOG has three wells on DRL status and they will run parallel to #18365;
  

This well was just taken off line (4/18):

• 17918, 2,166, Newfield, Clear Creek Federal 1-26H, Bakken; t8/10; cum 138K 2/18; nothing going on in this area; maybe being re-worked;
  

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The Road To Venezuela 

Updates

June 11, 2018: I don't know the ins and outs of force majeure, but what little I understand about the term, Venezuela's woes do not qualify. Venezuela's problem was simply mismanagement. I think their customers will see it the same way. I'm disappointed CNBC hasn't discussed it. Whatever. Three more links to bring us up to date:

• Citgo, most impacted by Venezuela's backlog, scrambles to find new sources
• Venezuela may "try" ship-to-ship" transfer at sea -- wow, this is scary (and memo to those reading: Venezuela will fail
• same story, different source

Original Post

This story is being tracked here. And as far back as 2015.

June 7, 2018; 24 million bbl backlog; Venezuela's fate looks very, very bleak. From the linked article:

Dozens of tankers waiting to load over 24 million barrels of Venezuelan crude are sitting at the country’s main oil export terminal, with the loading delays at almost a month, Reuters reports, citing shipping data. This could put the company in breach of its oil supply contracts with refiners such as Valero and oil majors such as Chevron and China’s CNPC.

Let's put that 24 million bbls in perspective:

For Newbies: A Nice Reminder Of The Stratigraphy In The Williston Basin -- June 7, 2018

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Little Known Fact About The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project

From The Globe and Mail:

The Trans Mountain pipeline project will make it the owner of a spur line that feeds Alberta oil to Washington State’s refineries – and opens up a new front in Canada’s conflict with foes of increased oil capacity.

An environmental coalition in Washington State is gearing up to battle the new owner of the pipeline project, saying Kinder Morgan’s pipeline plans include additional capacity to ship oil to their jurisdiction.

That story is behind a solid pay-wall; the spur to Washington State refineries is also mentioned in this Seattle Times 2016 article. 

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For Justin

No, I Don't Regret A Thing, Edith Piaf

AAPL: An Open Book Test? -- June 7, 2018

AAPL: This looks like an answer to a question in an open book test. An Apple (AAPL) analyst suggests that AAPL shares at $193 are "flying high" after rising quickly from $173. If I find the link again, I might post it. Probably not. The analyst says that if iPhone sales slow, it's very possible AAPL shares could tumble back to $173.

So, could iPhone sales slow? Sure. I assume everyone saw this article yesterday: Apple is not encouraging folks to upgrade to new iPhones. Apple encourages folks to keep their "old" phones.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

US jobs (link here):

• prior, revised from 221K to 223K
• consensus: 220K to 225K
• actual: 222K
• delta: a decrease of 1K
• comment: unremarkable; background noise

Cognitive dissonance: it was interesting to see all the pushback Trump got from the alt-left on this --

I find it incredible that President Obama did not commute the sentence of this woman; one-time cocaine results in a life sentence -- and apparently not much chance for parole -- she's been in prison for 22 years. What a waste. Where was President Obama?

I hope the video at this site stays up for awhile -- ABC News must be going nuts. CNBC, on the other hand, will still be talking about Trump tweeting the other day that he was looking forward to the jobs report. LOL. 

Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Fails To Grow -- June 7, 2018

Zavanna: I normally don't post rumors, but this is an exception. The reader has been a close follower of Zavanna. The reader writes me --

There are some rumors about Zavanna. They have a lot of very good spacing units in Williams County with only one well. But it's been a long time since they have drilled. You can (deep in the internet) find a statement from a former employer that they a just waiting to be sold.

I actually followed Zavanna fairly closely some years ago, but I have not updated the site since 2016. I'm in the process of updating that page now. Some early observations:

• Zavanna completed about a dozen DUCs in mid- to late-2017
• Zavanna brought an old well back on line just this month (4/18) after being off line since 7/17 (#17446)
• Zavanna has many, many wells that have been on confidential list since 2014 and 2015; not sure why that is "being allowed"
• back in 2015 and 2016, some very old Zavanna wells (drilled in 2010) show impressive jumps in production

It is strange, isn't it? Such great locations and so little activity?

Exactly like the Bakken boom. From Bloomberg via Rigzone --

Jerry Morales, the mayor of Midland, Texas, and a local restaurateur, is being whipsawed by the latest Permian Basin shale-oil boom.

It’s fueling the region and starving it at the same time. Sales-tax revenue is hitting a record high, allowing the city to get around to fixing busted roads. But the crazy-low 2.1 percent unemployment rate is a bear. As the proprietor of Mulberry Cafe and Gerardo’s Casita, Morales is working hard to retain cooks. As a Republican first elected in 2014, he oversees a government payroll 200 employees short of what it needs to fully function.

“This economy is on fire,” he said from a back table at the cafe the other day, watching as the lunchtime crowd lined up for the Asian Zing Salad and Big Mo’s Toaster hamburger.

Fire, of course, can be dangerous. In the country’s busiest oil patch, where the rig count has climbed by nearly one third in the past year, drillers, service providers and trucking companies have been poaching in all corners, recruiting everyone from police officers to grocery clerks. So many bus drivers with the Ector County Independent School District in nearby Odessa quit for the shale fields that kids were sometimes late to class. The George W. Bush Childhood Home, a museum in Midland dedicated to the 43rd U.S. president, is smarting from a volunteer shortage.

The oil industry has such a ferocious appetite for workers that it’ll hire just about anyone with the most basic skills. “It is crazy,” said Jazmin Jimenez, 24, who zipped through a two-week training program at New Mexico Junior College in Hobbs, about 100 miles north of Midland, and was hired by Chevron Corp. as a well-pump checker.

“Honestly I never thought I’d see myself at an oilfield company. But now that I’m here -- I think this is it.”

 Just like the Bakken boom.

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Active rigs:

$65.38→	6/7/2018	06/07/2017	06/07/2016	06/07/2015	06/07/2014
Active Rigs	60	52	26	82	194

RBN Energy: with TMX and LNG Canada, are Asian markets finally in sight for Canadian producers?

Western Canada is blessed with extraordinary hydrocarbon resources and in recent years has been ramping up production in the Alberta oil sands and in the Duvernay and Montney shale plays. The U.S. is pretty much Canada’s only crude oil and natural gas customer, though, and there are limits to how much Canada can export to its southern neighbor — especially in the Shale Era, with the U.S. producing more oil and gas than ever and meeting an increasing share of its own needs.

So Canadian producers, midstream companies and others have been working to gain access to new, overseas markets. It has not gone well. Pipeline projects to transport oil and gas to the British Columbia coast have been set back time and again, as have plans for crude and LNG export terminals. At last, there may be some good news. The Canadian government has stepped in to help push through a critically important oil pipeline to the coast, and BC’s leading LNG project just signed on a major new investor/customer. Today, we consider recent moves that could finally allow large volumes of Western Canadian oil and gas to be shipped to Asia.