An NFL-Free Sunday -- November 26, 2017

From Twitter, just for the fun of it:

Getting off renewable energy since 1800 (the big slide in renewable energy notwithstanding all you might have heard, LOL):

From the linked article:

We have spent the last two centuries getting off renewables because they were mostly weak, costly and unreliable.

Half a century ago, in 1966, the world got 15.6% of its energy from renewables. Today (2016) we still get less of our energy at 13.8%.

With our concern for global warming, we are ramping up the use of renewables. The mainstream reporting lets you believe that renewables are just about to power the entire world. But this is flatly wrong.

The new World Energy Outlook report from the International Energy Agency shows how much renewables will increase over the next quarter century, to 2040. In its New Policies Scenario, which rather optimistically expects all nations to live up to their Paris climate promise, it sees the percentage increase less than 6 percentage points from 13.8% to 19.4%. More realistically, the increase will be 2 percentage points to 15.8%.

Most of the renewables are not solar PV and wind. Today, almost 10 percentage points come from the world’s oldest fuel: wood. Hydropower provides another 2.5 percentage points and all other renewables provide just 1.6 percentage points, of which solar PV and wind provide 0.8 percentage points.

Neither will most renewables in 2040 come from solar PV and wind, as breathless reporting tends to make you believe. 10 percentage points will come from wood. Hydropower provides another 3 percentage points and all other renewables provide 6 percentage points, of which solar PV and wind will (very optimistically) provide 3.7 percentage points.

CO2 emission? It was -- and is -- all about economic growth, pure and simple.

Last one for the day, then signing off for awhile. Good luck to all:

It appears #98 and #21 want to keep their jobs and their future endorsements and future possibilities to be tapped as sports commentators or appearances on "Dancing With The Stars."

NFL hell.  Later: I got home in time to see the opening of the Sunday NFL game: they did not televise the national anthem. Smart move. And then I turned to TCM, Two For The Road, with Audrey Hepburn and Albert Finney.

F-15, Vegas Strong

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- November 26, 2017

The results of a lot of wells coming off confidential list weren't posted last week due to Thanksgiving, so I am including them in the list below.

Monday, December 4, 2017: 18 for the month; 128 for the quarter
33066, conf, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5C, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32903, conf, BR, Lovaas 5-8-12 UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
31612, conf, BR, HE 3-8-20UTFH, Elidah, no production data,
31611, conf, BR, HE 4-8-20MBH, Elida, no production data,
31433, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 7-26-29TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Sunday, December 3, 2017: 13 for the month; 123 for the quarter
32904, conf, BR, Lovaas 6-8-12MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
31850, conf, Whiting, 3J Trust 24-8-2PH, Bell, producing, a nice well; about 60K fir four months;
31613, conf, BR, HE 2-8-20MBH, Elidah, no production data,

Saturday, December 2, 2017: 10 for the month; 120 for the quarter
33323, conf, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33065, conf, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5B, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31431, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 6-26-29TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Friday, December 1, 2017: 8 for the month; 118 for the quarter
33547, 1,120, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-30HLW,  Bear Den; t8/17; cum 38K 10/17;
33322, SI/NC, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HD, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33321, SI/NC, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HT, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33071, SI/NC, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5F2, Lost Bridge, no production data,
33064, SI/NC, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5E, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32448, 820, Whiting, Buckman 34-21PH, Bell, t7/17; cum 39K 9/17;
32478, 493, Whiting, Buckman 44-9PHU, Bell, t6/17; cum 31K 9/17;
31422, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-8, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Thursday, November 30, 2017: 69 for the month; 110 for the quarter
33320, SI/NC, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HC, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33063, SI/NC, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5A, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32058, 1,898, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-14HLW, Bear Den, 4 sections; Three Forks, 62 stages, 6 million lbs, t8/17; cum 68K 9/17; from the geologist's narrative, "... drilled in the Lost Bridge field also referred to locally as the Bear's Den field, located about 10 miles south and 4 miles east of Keene in Dunn County..."; six drill bits; a total of 169 hours (7 days) to complete; penetration rate of 128 feet per hour; the well bore was within the 20-feet Three Forks target window for 93.57% of the lateral, the Three Forks Upper "A" Facies for 5.24", and the Three Forks Middle "C" Facies for 1.19% of the lateral. TVD: start of target, 10,993.5 feet; end of lateral, 11,011 feet (17.5 feet).
31834, 1,267, Whiting, Evitt 34-12-2H, Truax, 4 sections, 41 stages; 10.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 85K 9/17;
31370, 1,107, Whiting, Evitt 14-12TFH, Truax, 4 sections, Three Forks, 34 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/17; cum 90K 9/17;

Wednesday, November 29, 2017: 64 for the month; 105 for the quarter
33062, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5FXG, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32059, 720, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-20H, Bear Den, Three Forks, 62 stages, 7.6 million lbs, t9/17; cum 18K 9/17;
31421, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2434H-9, Alkali Creek, no production data,  

Tuesday, November 28, 2017: 61 for the month; 102 for the quarter
33061, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5C, Lost Bridge, no production data,

Monday, November 27, 2017: 60 for the month; 101 for the quarter
33060, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31718, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, November 26, 2017: 58 for the month; 99 for the quarter
31717, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,
31368, 1,818, Whiting, Evitt 14-12H, Truax, 4 sections, 37 stages; 9.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 121K 9/17;
33059, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
33058, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
27079, 422, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 5T, Willow Creek, Three Forks B1, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 68K 9/17;

Saturday, December 2, 2017: 10 for the month; 120 for the quarter
33323, conf, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33065, conf, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5B, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31431, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 6-26-29TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Friday, December 1, 2017: 8 for the month; 118 for the quarter
33547, conf, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-30HLW,  Bear Den; a nice well; about 24K in first two months;
33322, conf, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HD, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33321, conf, WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HT, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33071, conf, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5F2, Lost Bridge, no production data,
33064, conf, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5E, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32448, conf, Whiting, Buckman 34-21PH, Bell, a nice well; about 40K first four months;
32478, conf, Whiting, Buckman 44-9PHU, Bell, a nice well; about 30K first four months;
31422, conf, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-8, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Thursday, November 30, 2017: 69 for the month; 110 for the quarter
33320, SI/NC WPX, Mandaree South 25-36HC, Spotted Horn, no production data,
33063, SI/NC, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 44X-5A, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32058, 1,898, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-14HLW, Bear Den, 4 sections; Three Forks, 62 stages, 6 million lbs, t8/17; cum 68K 9/17; from the geologist's narrative, "... drilled in the Lost Bridge field also referred to locally as the Bear's Den field, located about 10 miles south and 4 miles east of Keene in Dunn County..."; six drill bits; a total of 169 hours (7 days) to complete; penetration rate of 128 feet per hour; the well bore was within the 20-feet Three Forks target window for 93.57% of the lateral, the Three Forks Upper "A" Facies for 5.24", and the Three Forks Middle "C" Facies for 1.19% of the lateral. TVD: start of target, 10,993.5 feet; end of lateral, 11,011 feet (17.5 feet).
31834, 1,267, Whiting, Evitt 34-12-2H, Truax, 4 sections, 41 stages; 10.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 85K 9/17;
31370, 1,107, Whiting, Evitt 14-12TFH, Truax, 4 sections, Three Forks, 34 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/17; cum 90K 9/17;
Wednesday, November 29, 2017: 64 for the month; 105 for the quarter
33062, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5FXG, Lost Bridge, no production data,
32059, 720, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-20H, Bear Den, Three Forks, 62 stages, 7.6 million lbs, t9/17; cum 18K 9/17;
31421, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2434H-9, Alkali Creek, no production data,  

Tuesday, November 28, 2017: 61 for the month; 102 for the quarter
33061, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5C, Lost Bridge, no production data,
Monday, November 27, 2017: 60 for the month; 101 for the quarter
33060, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
31718, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, November 26, 2017: 58 for the month; 99 for the quarter
31717, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-10, Alkali Creek, no production data,
31368, 1,818, Whiting, Evitt 14-12H, Truax, 4 sections, 37 stages; 9.3 million lbs, t6/17; cum 121K 9/17;
33059, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5D, Lost Bridge, no production data,
33058, SI/NC, XTO, Jorgenson Federal 44X-5H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
27079, 422, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 5T, Willow Creek, Three Forks B1, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 68K 9/17;

Saturday, November 25, 2017: 54 for the month; 95 for the quarter
33273, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Leo E-154-94-2423H-12, Alkali Creek, no production data,
33118, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-27B-34-4H, Little Knife, no production data,
31907, 616, Whiting, Obrigewitch 24-9PH, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs, t5/17; cum 39K 9/17;

Friday, November 24, 2017: 51 for the month; 92 for the quarter
25844, SI/NC Slawson, Periscope Federal 7-10-11-12TF, Big Bend, no production data,

Thursday, November 23, 2017: 50 for the month; 91 for the quarter
33181, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H04, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
31463, SI/NC, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-9H, McGregory Buttes, producing, albeit very little;
31439, SI/NC Slawson, Periscope Federal 6-10-11-12TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
27078, 467, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 4B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 101K 9/17;

Wednesday, November 22, 2017: 50 for the month; 87 for the quarter
33180, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-5, Beaver Lodge, no production data,

Tuesday, November 21, 2017: 49 for the month; 86 for the quarter
33179, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-6, Beaver Lodge, no production data,

The Political Page, T+308 - November 25, 2017,

The Daily Caller recalls twelve apocalyptic global warming predictions.

12. The UN -- in the late 1980s said the world had only a decade to solve global warming or face the consequences. On June 30, 1989: "entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000."

11. Environmentalist George Monbiot, 2002: "in as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world's animals or it continues to feet the world's people. It cannot do both." Fact: in 2002, 930 million people were undernourished; by 2014, that number shrank to 805 million, according to the UN.

10. UN's top climate scientist, 2007: "we only have four years to save the world. If there's no action before 2012, it's too late." It' s now 2017 and the world looks just fine.

9. UK prime minister, 2009: "only 50 days left to save Earth." I'm still laughing over that one. 50 days. Sounds like a movie.

8. But it's worse. The had of Canada's Green Party told world leaders in Copenhagen, 2009, there were "only hours" left to stop global warming. They marked "Earth Hour" as of the following Saturday. Guess we missed another deadline.

7. Back in 2009, Obama's administration said we had only four years to save Earth. So send your money to Obama's re-election campaign if you want to save the Earth.

6. May 13, 2014, French foreign minister told a believing SecState John Kerry that "we only have 500 days" to stop "climate chaos." Okay.

5. At the Vatican, 2015, "that year (2015) was the last effective opportunity to negotiate arrangements that keep human-induced warming below 2-degrees [Celsius]." I assume the Vatican's best advice for earthlings: quit having so many kids.

4. 2016: collapse of two Antarctic glaciers could happen sooner than previously believed, resulting in worldwide coastal flooding.

3. Prince Charles, soon-to-be king, warned in July, 2009, that humanity had only 96 months to save the world from "irretrievable climate and ecosystem collapse, all that goes with it." That deadline has passed; the prince has not provided an update to when the world needs to be saved.

2. Undated, but recent, New York Magazine writer claims global warming could make Earth "uninhabitable" by "the end of this century." Most of us won't be alive 80 years from now to see if that comes true.

1. 25 years ago -- a group of scientists signed a letter warming about massive ecological and societal collapse if nothing was done to curb overpopulation, population, and ultimately, the capitalist society society in which we live today. Earlier this year, the Union of Concerned Scientists published a second letter, saying the same thing. They said, in case some readers had not noted, "Earth with all its life is our only home. Of course, Elon Musk would argue that point. He's getting ready to send humans to Mars.

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Collector's Edition

The last issue of TeenVogue -- guest-edited by Hillary -- will be the last issue to hit the newsstands. One wonders if Hillary knew it would be the last issue. More and more she reminds me of Barbra Streisand's character in The Way We Were. And yes, that's how she spells "Barbra" and she was one of the 23 celebrities who said they would leave the US if Trump was elected president.

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The Pawns Are Her Sisters 

Re-Posting -- The Numbers Even Surprised Me -- November 26, 2017

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Flashback

With all this talk about "forecasting" and inability of analysts able to understand the Bakken revolution, it was interesting to take a look at EIA's forecast one year ago, forecasting tight oil production for 2017:

The flow of oil from U.S. shale fields is projected by government analysts to fall 14 percent by 2017, as the reverberations of the recent crash in crude prices are felt.

Production from those shale fields had increased exponentially over the past decade as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques were improved.

Shale oil now accounts for more than half of the nation’s crude output. But according to a report Monday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale oil output – which peaked in 2015 at 4.9 million barrels a day – will fall to 4.2 million barrels by the end of next year.

The fall is “mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in investment. However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reductions in cost and improvements in drilling techniques,” the report reads. 

So, a year ago, EIA predicted US shale operators would produce 4.2 million by the end of 2017; in fact, US shale operators will produce in excess of 6 million bbls.

Pretty amazing, on so many levels.

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Another Prediction: 

Sophia Will Make 87% More Pancakes In 2018 Than She Did in 2017

Germany, Merkel, Coal, CO2 -- Not Looking Good For Deutschland -- November 26, 2017

Talk about a country trying its hardest to destroy its economy. Wow.

So many stories in this one graph, including:

• CO2 emissions unchanged since 2011
• more than half of Germany's CO2 emissions coming from dirty coal (lignite)
• another fourth of Germany's CO2 emissions coming from hard coal
• Germany uses almost no natural gas

The graphic below is very misleading. Renewables are not dispatchable -- and require fossil fuel backup. I was surprised that nuclear still accounts for 13% and it's my understanding that Merkel et al want to completely phase out nuclear energy.

Week 47: November 19, 2017 - November 25, 2017

This was a short week due to Thanksgiving. Numbers coming in from Wednesday through Saturday suggest this was a record weekend for sales, and suggest that the economy is hitting on all cylinders. It is Donald Trump's first Thanksgiving as president. See this post also. And the WSJ suggests this is only the beginning (or the continuation).

Most of the talk regarding energy this past week revolved around OPEC's upcoming decision whether to extend production cuts. But shale is confounding "everyone' according to Bloomberg. Their advice: forget about trying to forecast US shale production and just get on with making the decision. More important for me: the discussion has finally moved away from "swing producer" to "most responsive producer." By that measure, US shale has OPEC beat hands down, as they say.

Completion strategies are driving incredible US shale production as noted in the graph from an article by Mike Filloon today.

Gasoline demand appears to be hitting new records for this time of the year, and the divergence from 2016 is remarkable and WTI is approaching $60. Unfortunately, the upward trend is not due to increased demand, but rather due to a one-time event: the closure of the north leg of the Canadian Keystone pipeline. Once that is sorted out, we'll see where WTI heads -- but the tea leaves suggest getting the Keystone pipeline started again could take longer than first expected. I'm now betting it takes a year. See this map of Canadian pipelines.

Nebraska regulators vote "no" with a 3-2 "yes" vote to approve the Keystone XL.

I thought Prince Salman was to be crowned king this week, but didn't hear a thing. 

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Back To The Bakken

Operations
XTO has a great well -- again 
MRO has a huge DUC -- and no one even mentions it
the Brooklyn oil field is looking better than ever (and even surprising me)

Everyone Already Knew This -- But For The Archives -- November 26, 2017

Business headlines from the Drudge Report to start the day.

• All that talk about the economy running on easy money? WSJ headline: the economy is humming but businesses are not borrowing

Even more surprising is that falling rates of loan growth are occurring as many signals point to a more buoyant U.S. economy. Unemployment continues to decline, gross domestic product growth came in at 3% in the third quarter and business investment is rising.

• huge weekend for retail. USA Today headline: Cyber Mondy is forecast to be huge. The reason" can't shake a shopping habit.

• smartphone / mobile device sales smash records. CNBC: mobile devices may mean Cyber Thursday (Thanksgiving) will soon replace Black Friday as biggest shopping day

• Black Friday, Thanksgiving online sales climb to record high. Yahoo!Finance. And there you have it. Donald Trump's first Thanksgiving as president. And everyone said he was in the game for his own benefit.

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At Wine Fusion

Yesterday, Sophia and I spent the entire day (from about 1:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. at the Christmas festival on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, the Christmas capital of Texas.

Here she is taking a break at the Wine Fusion bar on the south end of Main Street. 

It is absolutely incredibly amazing how friendly (and tolerant?) Grapevine retailers are. They might be a big "stuffy" about non-customers using their bathrooms, but there are plenty of those up and down Main Street. And it doesn't take much to be a customer -- a $2 bottle of water in some places.

Don't you just love those metallic green chair coverings?

Shale Is Confounding Everyone -- Bloomberg -- November 26, 2017

I assume "everyone" includes IEA, OPEC, EIA, and HH.

Whatever.

The article is linked here. The writer's thesis: unlike conventional oil, it is incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to forecast future production of unconventional oil:

Forecasting output growth used to be a relatively simple undertaking. Developing oil fields had a lead time of several years and the flow of new oil coming from them was reasonably visible over a 12-month horizon.

Now, lead times are measured in weeks rather than years for new shale projects, and the large number of companies operating in the sector have made forecasting oil output growth almost impossible. The uncertainty makes it very difficult for OPEC and its friends to assess how they should respond. This raises a risk that they hesitate on extending the production reductions.

Analysts briefing the group last week said forecasts of growth in shale oil output next year ranged from 500,000 barrels a day to 1.7 million. That margin of uncertainty is as big as the entire output cut the group agreed to a year ago.

A few days ago, from MarketRealist:

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its monthly drilling report on November 13, 2017. It reported that US shale oil production will rise by 80,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 6.17 MMbpd in December 2017—compared to November 2017. It would be the 12th straight rise in US shale oil production. The expectation of a rise in US crude oil production limited the upside for crude oil prices on November 13, 2017.

From the EIA:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that about 4.25 million barrels per day of crude oil were produced directly from tight oil resources in the United States in 2016. This was equal to about 48% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2016. 

For me, this was the important takeaway:

OPEC should resist the temptation to delay a decision on extending its current output deal until the picture becomes clearer, because the situation isn't going to get any clearer. 

The widely differing assessments of this year's growth in shale output show that even by the first quarter of next year, there will be no unified view of 2018. 

OPEC's decades-old policy of acting as the world's swing producer has run out of steam -- at least so long as the U.S. shale sector is able to respond rapidly to movements in the oil price. 

Finally, we are getting away from the discussion of "swing producer" and now talking about "most responsive operator." It is now agreed that US shale operators are the most responsive to the price of oil. I remember not too long ago analysts suggesting it would take US shale operators up to six months, maybe a year to respond to prices; I always said operators could respond in days. Even this article says response is measured in weeks (now) instead months. I think one could argue US shale companies can respond in days instead of weeks.

**********************************

Flashback

With all this talk about "forecasting" and inability of analysts able to understand the Bakken revolution, it was interesting to take a look at EIA's forecast one year ago, forecasting tight oil production for 2017:

The flow of oil from U.S. shale fields is projected by government analysts to fall 14 percent by 2017, as the reverberations of the recent crash in crude prices are felt.

Production from those shale fields had increased exponentially over the past decade as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques were improved.

Shale oil now accounts for more than half of the nation’s crude output. But according to a report Monday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale oil output – which peaked in 2015 at 4.9 million barrels a day – will fall to 4.2 million barrels by the end of next year.

The fall is “mainly attributed to low oil prices and the resulting cuts in investment. However, production declines will continue to be mitigated by reductions in cost and improvements in drilling techniques,” the report reads. 

So, a year ago, EIA predicted US shale operators would produce 4.2 million by the end of 2017; in fact, US shale operators will produce in excess of 6 million bbls.

Pretty amazing, on so many levels.

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Something I'm Not Remotely Worried About: An "Over-Achieving OPEC"

From the WSJ -- I am only posting this for the archives. This is not something that concerns me. 

Shale Production: Significant Completion Strategies -- Filloon -- November 26, 2017

Summary over at SeekingAlpha:

• the evolution of well design continues to produce huge individual well results
• some believe this has more to do with geology, but the occurrence has increased significantly across multiple plays
• Cimarex's acreage is well placed for improved stimulation, as increased percentages of natural gas drive more oil to the well bore
• Cimarex is well positioned going forward, as it continues to develop its core Delaware leasehold