Tuesday, May 11, 2021

How Bad Can It Get? May 11, 2021

Colonial Pipeline: from social media at 10:10 p.m. Tuesday night, May 11, 2021. 

  • "Authorities" hope that "substantial portions" of the Colonial Pipeline will be open by the weekend -- that's three days from now. Meanwhile, earlier today:
    • Raleigh, NC: over 50% of gas stations are without gasoline;
    • Wilmington, NC: over 61% of gas stations are without gasoline;
    • Charlotte, NC: over 29% of gas stations are without gasoline;
  • Extrapolation suggests upwards of all gas stations could be out of gasoline by Thursday; trucks will start rolling; that will help; but ....

*****************************
Workhorse

On another note, do you remember the short note regarding "Workhorse Group, Inc," a billion-dollar hydrogen-fueled truck company, that produced all of six trucks this past quarter?

Well, "Cathie" / ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) dumped Workhorse Group today. 

Proppants -- Random Note -- May 11, 2021

See this note for background.

From this link studying proppant and shale, Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 54, 2233 - 2248(2021):

The technology of cross-linked fracturing fluids and proppant with a larger grain diameter of 0.850 ÷ 0.425 mm is usually used to fracture the rocks with an increased content of clay minerals and increased plasticity (Rickman 2008). 
Fracturing fluid used in our experiment was crosslinked natural polymer 30# (Fig. 6b). The composition of the fluid was as follows: tap water, biocide, gelling agent—natural polymer (guar) in powder 3.6 kg/m3, clay minerals stabilizer and clay swelling inhibitor, nanoemulsion, pH buffer, crosslinker (boron compounds), 2.0 l/m3, viscosity breaker, 2.4 l/m3. 
As proppant material—intermediate strength ceramic proppant ISP 20/40 was used. Proppant grain size was between 0.850 and 0.425 mm; mean grain size was 0.673 mm. Bulk density of proppant was 1.89 g/cm3. The proppant have an average sphericity of 0.88 and an average roundness of 0.85. 

From this link on proppants: 

The size range of the proppant is very important. 
Typical proppant sizes are generally between 8 and 140 mesh (106 µm - 2.36 mm), for example 16-30 mesh (600 µm – 1180 µm), 20-40 mesh (420 µm - 840 µm), 30-50 mesh (300 µm – 600 µm), 40-70 mesh (212 µm - 420 µm) or 70-140 mesh (106 µm - 212 µm). When describing frac sand, the product is frequently referred to as simply the sieve cut, i.e. 20/40 sand.

8 - 140 mesh: 106 µm - 2.36 mm
16 - 30 mesh: 600 µm - 1180 µm
20 - 40 mesh: 420 µm - 840 µm
30 - 50 mesh: 300 µm - 600 µm
40 - 70 mesh: 212 µm - 420 µm

1,000 nanometers = 1  µm

On A Day Like This, Time To Chill -- May 11, 2021

When Lana Del Rey is good, she is very, very good. Unfortunately her themes are very "adult" themes and not suitable for work. But, wow, on a day like today, I need Lana Del Ray. Her music. Not the singer.

I couldn't possibly be in a better mood, but wow, it's mentally exhausting to have a day like today. 

Re-posting:

US equities plunging.

Perfect storm. The trifecta timeline:

  • FAANG with record earnings; investors not rewarded; I'm personally most disappointed with AAPL/Apple, Inc.
  • jobs report blindsides everyone; now they're all worried about wage inflation;
  • Colonial Pipeline shutdown; symptomatic of the Biden administration;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

*******************************************
Vaccine Hesitancy

CDC data here.

With a capacity to provide upwards of 4 million vaccinations per day, in the most recent 24-hour period, 1.5 million vaccinations were given. Going back ten weeks, this was the fewest number of vaccinations given one Monday-Tuesday 24-hour period except for last week, when it actually dropped below a million vaccinations given in one 24-hour period. 

On another note, assuming the US population is about 330 million, and 117 million folks considered fully vaccinated, the percentage of Americans fully vaccinated is about 35%. One site suggests there are 210 million "adults" (those greater than 18 years of age). Assuming 117 million folks were "all adults," the adult percentage fully vaccinated: 56%. 

The administration's goal is 70%. 

0.70 x 210 = 147 million.

Delta: 147 - 117 = 30 million. Getting to 70% adults fully vaccinated by July 4, 2021, should be a slam dunk. One million per 24-hour period and by mid-June 70% of all US adults will be fully vaccinated.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Tuesday

May 11, 2021

334,081,065

4,237,240

263,132,561

1,533,180

Tuesday

May 4, 2021

318,474,035

5,964,460

247,769,049

988,846

Tuesday

April 27, 2021

297,543,635

6,851,630

232,407,669

1,639,215

Tuesday

April 20, 2021

272,030,795

7,525,070

213,388,238

1,806,929

Tuesday

April 13, 2021

245,364,805

7,568,500

192,282,781

2,590,736

Tuesday

April 6, 2021

219,194,215

11,302,820

168,592,075

1,404,280

Tuesday 

March 30, 2021

189,451,285

8,804,720

147,602,345

1,789,510

Tuesday

March 23, 2021

162,978,840

6,244,285

128,491,795

1,982,059

Tuesday

March 16, 2021

142,918,525

7,070,690

110,737,856

1,655,996

Tuesday

March 9, 2021

123,232,775

6,854,160

93,692,598

1,602,746

Tuesday

March 2, 2021

102,353,940

5,951,450

78,631,601

1,731,614

Re-Posting: Innovations In The Oil Patch -- Why Tier 2 Locations Can Evolve Into Tier 1 Locations -- May 11, 2021

See this post.

Re-posting this portion of that post:

Updates

Later, 6:29 p.m. CT: and there's more -- 

If you Google 'nano proppants shale',  you may see several articles describing this topic ... just one more of countless innovations that continue to emerge in the upstream segment of this industry.

It was just a few years ago that 'micro proppants' were introduced ... 200 to 400 mesh, ultra tiny particles that entered and scoured fissures and allowed the larger 100 mesh to enter and prop the newly-formed pathways. 
Now, nano particles, described as 1,000 mesh ( which are actually too tiny to be described in 'mesh'  terms ), are being employed. 
Some of this material is - literally - dust from crushed granite.

The discovery/improvement/refinement of so SO many aspects of this industry is nothing short of astonishing.

Later, 2:57 p.m. CT: more on Monobore drilling from the reader who sent the notes below --

In the Bakken (at least up to a few years ago), and many other shale basins,  a large 13-inch steel casing would be emplaced/cemented down to 300 feet or so ... beyond the water table.

Then, smaller 9-inch casing would be emplaced/cemented down to about 1,900 feet depth. 
From there, still smaller (7 inch/5 inch) casing would be installed/cemented down to the final vertical depth (10,000 feet) or out to the end of the lateral (20,000 total feet).

The biggest reason for this telescoping configuration is to effectively control the bottom pressures (3,500 psi up to 10,000 psi) throughout  an unbroken metal 'straw' right up to the surface.

Monobore drilling can be utilized when the recognized formation's bottom hole pressure is low enough so that these expensive casings/cementing are not needed.
The Niobrara (Colorado) is somewhat  shallow (~7,500 feet) with relatively low pressure. (This is one reason why Niobrara wells produce comparatively small amounts of oil per well). 
If state regulators allow, and operators believe casing is not needed, a drill rig will go from spud to TD in a single run which can be both faster and cheaper than standard drilling. [Comment: it's interesting - operators can drill the vertical in one day, the curve in twelve hours, and the lateral in three days -- I think that's the gold standard -- doesn't always happen, obviously, but I've reported several such wells.]

Some operators in shallow Permian formations have also  done this, but the entire approach gets very little publicity.

Later, 1:08 p.m. CT: a reader noted the information about how quickly the lateral was drilled. The writer added this: 

Expanding upon the ~3,000 foot per day lateral drilling situation ... To acknowledge how this impacts the economic viability of 'shale' wells throughout the country would be to state the obvious. Amongst other effects, this continues to expand the productive footprint of all the basins across the country. (This, in direct contrast to the OMG, running out of sweet spots concept). -- Comment: yes, I've also suggested this helps move "Tier 2" sites into "Tier 1" sites.

Antero just drilled 12,118 lateral feet in 24 hours, a record. 
While their average is now over 7,500 lateral feet per day, several other operators routinely  claim three-to- four-thousand lateral feet per day as their norm.

Again, an astounding accomplishment.

As per Schlumberger's press announcement a few weeks back (4/23/2021), they worked with a Niobrara operator who drilled a  >21,000' MD well on one run, using the so called Monobore approach which greatly reduces time and cost while  enabling expanded Artificial Lift options. -- Comment: I had not heard of the Monobore technology but a quick google search suggests this technology was developed for off-shore drilling and then found utility in very, very deep onshore drilling. I could be wrong but that was the impression I had.

The unceasing march of innovation continues unabated.

Comment: this was clearly a two-edged sword for oil service companies like Schlumberger. Their technological improvements kept them competitive but their margins may have decreased due to less "time on site." 

Original Post

The Hess EN-Anderson wells are tracked here

The well:

  • 36603, 3,416, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, 33-061-04514, Manitou, t11/20; cum 126K 3/21;  227,901 bbls water; 32 stages; 11.932 million lbs proppant; from the file report:
  • spud date: June 19, 2020
  • cease drilling: June 26, 2020 (let that sink in)
  • target: middle Bakken
  • 2560-acre spacing
  • logging services began: 9:20 a.m., June 20, 2020
  • KOP reached: 5:35 a.m. June 21, 2020
  • building of the curve began at 6:45 a.m. June 22, 2020
  • middle Bakken encountered at 10,153' TVD, one foot low to the prognosis;
  • curve TD: 10,502' MD at 3:49 a.m., June 22, 2020 (obviously a typographic error)
    • either 3:49 p.m. June 22 or 3:49 a.m. June 23
  • lateral began at 11:17 a.m. June 23, 2020
  • TD: 8:50 a.m. June 26, 2020 (three days to drill the lateral)
  • wellbore tracked throughout the middle Bakken for 100% of the lateral;

Active Rig Count To 18; Twelve Operators Drilling In The Bakken; Two New Permits; Note: Active Rig Count Is Greater Than One Year Ago -- May 11, 2021

Really? US equity market's Baghdad Bob. If not purposely lying, the second dumbest person on the planet.

After that, I need a musical interlude:

Energy investors: smiling today? Lost in all the noise today, quick, what did WTI do? I'm absolutely convinced folks who positioned themselves for what happened on the market today are going to do very, very well. I would be curious what Buffett is doing: be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: the number of active rigs in North Dakota today is one greater than it was a year ago.

Active rigs:

$65.39
5/11/202105/11/202005/11/201905/11/201805/11/2017
Active Rigs1817666051

Operators:

  • CLR (5): Gordon Federal, Rodney, Kukla, Harrisburg, Harms Federal,
  • MRO (2): Armstrong, Morgan USA,
  • Hess (2): EN-Johnson, GO-Braaten,
  • Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk,
  • Petro-Hunt: Blikre,
  • Whiting: Lacey,
  • Slawson: Mauser Federal,
  • Enerplus: Marten,
  • Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
  • Ovintiv: Olson,
  • Oasis: Cliff Federal
  • Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Sylven,

Two new permits, #38302 - #38303, inclusive --

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Kraken has permits for two new Bigfoot wells:
    • 38302, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23 7H, Sanish, NENE 26-153-92, 1249 FNL 360 FEL;
    • 38303, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot LE 23-11 9H, Sanish, NENE 26-153-92, 1314 FNL 360 FEL;

Dry hole:

  • 37227, dry, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2H, NENW 6-148-99; McKenzie County; multiple problems drilling the lateral; decision to abandon and plug the wellbore. Whiting plans to drill the third well on this pad and then come back and re-drill this well, Sorenson 21-6-2H.

North Dakota's Paddlefish Season Ends Abruptly -- May 11, 2021

Paddlefish season ends abruptly. Scheduled to last through May 16, 2021, it was abruptly canceled on/about May 10, 2021, to prevent overfishing.

Coal Is Dead! Long Live Coal -- EIA -- May 11, 2021

I guess this is what happens when:

  • nuclear plants are closed;
  • more solar/wind farms needing fossil fuel backup are built;
  • pipelines are delayed, deferred, killed, or closed.

Link here

On a percentage basis, the increase in coal demand will almost equal that of renewable energy. Say what?

Look at the bottom line: this trend will be most pronounced in Texas.

Closer Look At The Hess EN-Anderson Section Line Well -- Manitou Oil Field -- May 11, 2021

Updates

Later, 2:57 p.m. CT: more on Monobore drilling from the reader who sent the notes below --

In the Bakken (at least up to a few years ago), and many other shale basins,  a large 13-inch steel casing would be emplaced/cemented down to 300 feet or so ... beyond the water table.

Then, smaller 9-inch casing would be emplaced/cemented down to about 1,900 feet depth. 
From there, still smaller (7 inch/5 inch) casing would be installed/cemented down to the final vertical depth (10,000 feet) or out to the end of the lateral (20,000 total feet).

The biggest reason for this telescoping configuration is to effectively control the bottom pressures (3,500 psi up to 10,000 psi) throughout  an unbroken metal 'straw' right up to the surface.

Monobore drilling can be utilized when the recognized formation's bottom hole pressure is low enough so that these expensive casings/cementing are not needed.
The Niobrara (Colorado) is somewhat  shallow (~7,500 feet) with relatively low pressure. (This is one reason why Niobrara wells produce comparatively small amounts of oil per well). 
If state regulators allow, and operators believe casing is not needed, a drill rig will go from spud to TD in a single run which can be both faster and cheaper than standard drilling. [Comment: it's interesting - operators can drill the vertical in one day, the curve in twelve hours, and the lateral in three days -- I think that's the gold standard -- doesn't always happen, obviously, but I've reported several such wells.]

Some operators in shallow Permian formations have also  done this, but the entire approach gets very little publicity.

Later, 1:08 p.m. CT: a reader noted the information about how quickly the lateral was drilled. The writer added this: 

Expanding upon the ~3,000 foot per day lateral drilling situation ... To acknowledge how this impacts the economic viability of 'shale' wells throughout the country would be to state the obvious. Amongst other effects, this continues to expand the productive footprint of all the basins across the country. (This, in direct contrast to the OMG, running out of sweet spots concept). -- Comment: yes, I've also suggested this helps move "Tier 2" sites into "Tier 1" sites.

Antero just drilled 12,118 lateral feet in 24 hours, a record. 
While their average is now over 7,500 lateral feet per day, several other operators routinely  claim three-to- four-thousand lateral feet per day as their norm.

Again, an astounding accomplishment.

As per Schlumberger's press announcement a few weeks back (4/23/2021), they worked with a Niobrara operator who drilled a  >21,000' MD well on one run, using the so called Monobore approach which greatly reduces time and cost while  enabling expanded Artificial Lift options. -- Comment: I had not heard of the Monobore technology but a quick google search suggests this technology was developed for off-shore drilling and then found utility in very, very deep onshore drilling. I could be wrong but that was the impression I had.

The unceasing march of innovation continues unabated.

Comment: this was clearly a two-edged sword for oil service companies like Schlumberger. Their technological improvements kept them competitive but their margins may have decreased due to less "time on site." 

Original Post

The Hess EN-Anderson wells are tracked here

The well:

  • 36603, 3,416, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, 33-061-04514, Manitou, t11/20; cum 126K 3/21;  227,901 bbls water; 32 stages; 11.932 million lbs proppant; from the file report:
  • spud date: June 19, 2020
  • cease drilling: June 26, 2020 (let that sink in)
  • target: middle Bakken
  • 2560-acre spacing
  • logging services began: 9:20 a.m., June 20, 2020
  • KOP reached: 5:35 a.m. June 21, 2020
  • building of the curve began at 6:45 a.m. June 22, 2020
  • middle Bakken encountered at 10,153' TVD, one foot low to the prognosis;
  • curve TD: 10,502' MD at 3:49 a.m., June 22, 2020 (obviously a typographic error)
    • either 3:49 p.m. June 22 or 3:49 a.m. June 23
  • lateral began at 11:17 a.m. June 23, 2020
  • TD: 8:50 a.m. June 26, 2020 (three days to drill the lateral)
  • wellbore tracked throughout the middle Bakken for 100% of the lateral;

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213121683216241783834180341800
BAKKEN2-2021149837996211149136491362425
BAKKEN1-20213125308252502815033864338640
BAKKEN12-2020313493935000405634752447065459
BAKKEN11-20201434499342882207037676344833193

Colonial Pipeline Website Now Down -- May 11, 2021

The company tweets that its website is down; unrelated to the ransomware story. Okay.  

**************************
Corky Update

For the past two weeks, Corky has not been seen. Sophia's story is consistent: Corky is/was visiting her parents and friends in Hawaii. Apparently Corky also took a side-trip to Unicorn-Land (similar to the hobbits and Middle Earth, but with more rainbows).

Well, today, we got this photo and a note from Sophia's mother: Corky is back.

Photo below. Sophia's companion these past two weeks has been Piggy, the larger of the two in the photo below. Corky to the viewer's left. Corky looks a bit tired, but none-the-worse-for-wear. 

Apparently, Corky traveled with Liesha to Unicorn-Land. When Sophia told me that, I asked her if I would ever get to see Liesha. Sophia said, "nope." That was pretty abrupt; seemed pretty "mean." Then Sophia added: Liesha is an invisible unicorn.

I accidentally repeated that, "Oh, Liesha is imaginary, huh?" 

Wow did Sophia jump on me, "Liesha is not imaginary. She's invisible."

I asked Sophia how to spell Liesha and she spelled it as I've written it. I had to google correct spelling of Leisha; I told Sophia that the correct spelling of Leisha is Liesha.

Sophia said, without missing a beat, "That's how they spell Liesha in Unicorn-Land."

In Unicorn-Land, Corky visited the Uni-Corn Maize, the National Unicorn Monument, and Unicorn Monticello.

Piggy and Corky

Soybeans -- May 11, 2021

Re-posting: this story from businesswire:

ADM today announced its plan to build North Dakota’s first-ever dedicated soybean crushing plant and refinery to meet fast-growing demand from food, feed, industrial and biofuel customers, including producers of renewable diesel. 
Based in Spiritwood, ND, the approximately $350 million crush and refining complex will feature state-of-the-art automation technology and have the capacity to process 150,000 bushels of soybeans per day. 
Strategically located in a major soybean producing area, ADM’s global logistics network will enable the facility to access both domestic and global markets for soybean oil and meal. The facility is expected to be complete prior to the 2023 harvest.

Now this, from social media: "Beans in the (even higher) teens .. now the costliest since 2012 at $16+ a bushel."

Yeah -- We're Gonna Need A Lot More Natural Gas -- And Maybe Pipelines That Don't Get Shutdown -- Next Level Energy Ignorance -- May 11, 2021

Do you remember this essay from April 30, 2021? Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas

Bitcoin mining electricity usage is now estimated to be higher than the power consumption of Sweden and about half of the electricity produced in the UK. Link here

****************************
Next Level Energy Ignorance

I wish I had said that.

Enbridge will keep Line 5 flowing despite order to shut it down today. 

From social media:

Energy security is like our health...it's very easy to take for granted until we no longer have it. Desiring to shut down a critical pipeline that has never had a spill thereby forcing fuel to be transported via "tens of thousands" of trucks is next level energy ignorance.

How Bad Is It? Well, Pretty Bad South Of The Mason-Dixon Line -- May 11, 2021

Updates

Later, 12:44 p.m. CT: in real time, technically it is true -- there are no lines for gasoline in Southern Pines, NC -- that's because the stations are out of gasoline. 

Later, 12:36 p.m. CT: in real time, from Platts, "the closure could be more significant than the Suez Canal shutdown; incident highlights range of risks to energy supply."

  • like shutting down the DAPL
  • like shutting down the Keystone XL
  • like shutting down Line 5

Later, 12:18 p.m. CT: in real time, 

"Fuel on the Colonial system will take fifteen days to hit New York area. Gasoline shortages are already occurring from US south to East Coast. Once the pipeline's sprawling system is back in full operation, it will take nearly fifteen days (two weeks) to move gasoline sitting in Houston."

Keep your gas tanks full. Even if  you don't plan to drive.

It's a national emergency -- President Biden. The president has convened a commission to look into this. Acted within hours to set up that bipartisan commission. Never let a crisis go to waste. It appears the commission's main task is to "continually assess the impact of the ongoing shutdown."

Later, 12:13 p.m. CT: link here.

  • by Monday (that was yesterday), gasoline demand rose 40.1% among just five states: GA, FL, SC, NC, and VA.

Original Post

Tweets from the trenches:

Rigzone: East Coast motorists finding offline (empty) fuel pumps.  

From Virginia to Florida and Alabama, fuel stations are reporting that they’ve sold out of gasoline as supplies in the region dwindle and panic buying sets in. The White House said it was aware of shortages in the Southeast of the country and was trying to alleviate the problem.

Four days into the crisis, Colonial Pipeline Co. has only managed to manually operate a small segment of the pipeline -- as a stopgap measure -- and doesn’t expect to be able to substantially restore service before the weekend. The risk is that by that point drivers or airlines may already be suffering severe fuel shortages, while refineries on the Gulf coast could be forced to idle operations because they have nowhere to put their product.

U.S. average retail gasoline prices have risen to their highest since late 2014 due to the disruption, almost touching $3 per gallon. That could add to broader inflationary pressures as commodity prices from timber to copper also surge.

The Colonial pipeline is the most important conduit to distribute gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel in the U.S., moving the products from the refiners based on the Gulf coast into urban areas from Atlanta to New York and beyond. Each day, it ships about 2.5 million barrels -- more than the entire oil consumption of Germany -- connecting more than 20 refineries with about 200 distribution centers.

The vital conduit has been shut down since late Friday. Without the Colonial pipeline, many cities and airports must seek alternative supplies, either fuel imported by tanker or, if landlocked, relying on trucks.

In the first sign of the potential disruption to air travel, American Airlines Group Inc. said it was adjusting two long-haul routes that originate in Charlotte, North Caroline, to add fuel stops. Flights to Hawaii will call in at Dallas-Forth Worth airport, while London-bound aircraft will make a stop in Boston.

Airlines flying out of Philadelphia International Airport are burning through jet-fuel reserves and the airport has enough to last “a couple of weeks,’ a spokeswoman said.

The U.S. East Coast is losing around 1.2 million barrels a day of gasoline supply due to the disruption.

Finally, We See An IP -- Hess Reports An IP "On Time" -- Nice Well -- May 11, 2021

Colonial Pipeline: I mentioned the other day this would likely be Biden's first big challenge. First thing he did was call it a "national emergency." Hoarding, panic buying, huge shortages would have occurred regardless but when a president makes that statement it certainly doesn't help. News coming out of the East Coast is not good.

Reminder: shutdown came just as refiners were in the process of shutting down anyway, to transition from "winter gasoline" to "summer gasoline." Biden's EPA will grant waivers to allow refiners to continue producing "winter gasoline," delay seasonal shutdowns. 

JOLTS: US reported 8.1 million job openings in March, 2021, vs 7.5 million forecast. Federal government and states still paying folks not to work.

US equities plunging. Perfect storm. The trifecta timeline:

  • FAANG with record earnings; investors not rewarded;
  • jobs report blindsides everyone;
  • Colonial Pipeline shutdown;

The faux environmentalists' pipeline trifecta:

  • Keystone XL
  • DAPL
  • Line 5

Sell in May, go away. The date to watch, May 18, 2021, a week from today. Be greedy when others are fearful; fearful when other are greedy. Or something like that: Warren Buffett. 

TSLA: plummets. Announces halt to expand Chinese operations. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Fire: the Fed is playing with fire -- The WSJ op-ed -- link here:

  • clinging to an emergency policy after the emergency has passed, Chairman Powell courts asset bubbles;
  • with Covid uncertainty receding fast, and several quarters deep into the strongest recovery from any postwar recession, the Federal Reserve’s guidance continues to be the most accommodative on record, by a mile. 

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

ND's rock library: too bad this story will end up behind a paywall. Enjoy it while you can. Amy Sisk has really stuck to her knitting all these years and has posted an incredible story. Congratulations. Archived.

Active rigs:

$64.06
5/11/202105/11/202005/11/201905/11/201805/11/2017
Active Rigs1717666051

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, May 11, 2021: 21 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 126 for the year:

  • 37634, drl/NC, BR, Cherry Pie 1R TFH ULW, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 37540, drl/NC, BR, Faye 3B MBH, Elidah, no production data,
  • 36603, 3,416, Hess, EN-Anderson-LE-156-94-1820H-11, Manitou, t11/20; cum 126K 3/21;

RBN Energy: Colonial Pipeline shutdown exposes vulnerability, highlights resiliency.

We all hope that by the time you read this the operators of the ransomware-impacted Colonial Pipeline will have been able to restore service to more of the 5,500-mile refined products delivery system — maybe even to all of it.

In any case, the shutdown of the Houston-to-New-Jersey pipeline system on Friday both exposes the vulnerability of the North American pipeline grid to malevolent hackers and reveals how, by its very nature, that same grid offers at least some degree of redundancy and resiliency built into it. A lot of that ability to respond to a crisis, whether it be a pipeline leak or a hack by an Eastern European criminal group called DarkSide, involves what you might call “market-inspired workarounds” — alternative suppliers reacting to an anticipated supply void and potentially higher prices by jumping into action. Today, we look at what the ransomware attack on the U.S.’s largest gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel transportation system can teach us.

Rambling On A Monday Night -- May 10, 2021

The Tech Wreck

Sell in May; go away.

I think I've hit a wall.

I get a kick out of all the hand-wringing about "the tech wreck" today. 

Dividends.

FAANG.

  • Facebook: 0%
  • Apple: 0.69% -- might as well be 0%
  • Amazon: 0%
  • NFLX: 0%
  • GOOG: 0%
  • BRK-A / BRK-B: 0%

Overall US equity market dividend average, about 2%, I suppose. 

Warren Buffett has said this many times. Better to sell shares (capital gains) rather than collect dividends (for many reasons).

So, today? Simply folks taking their "dividends" from the FAANG stocks.

If there has been one thing that has disappointed me most about the FAANG companies this earnings season: these companies are reporting all-time record earnings -- and we're talking huge amounts of money. And none of these companies are rewarding shareholders with dividends, much less increased dividends. They announce buybacks -- yes, I understand the concept of buybacks -- theoretically, they sound great, in reality, a gimmick for the company, not much, if anything, for the investor. 

What good is a buyback if the market drops five percent, taking "everything" with it. 

Question: how are those announced buybacks helping you today. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are all plunging, taking "Big Oil" with it.