Annual Permit Summary -- 2020

Permits, #37296 - #38059

• 14 of them were salt water disposal wells
• three carbon capture and storage
• 746 gas and oil permits

Counties:

• Dunn: 148
• McKenzie: 272
• Mountrail: 150
• Williams: 134
  

Field (top ten):

• Alkali Creek: 14
• Antelope: 56
• Bailey: 18
• Beaver Lodge: 10
• Big Bend: 29
• Cedar Coulee: 23
• Dimmick Lake: 16
• East Fork: 10
• East Tioga: 21
• Elidah: 17
• Elm Tree: 27
• Hofflund: 21
• Little Knife: 17
• Mandaree: 18
• Moccasin Creek: 19
• North Fork: 23
• Oliver: 16
• Pershing: 28
• Reunion Bay: 39
• Sanish: 39
• Stony Creek: 15
• Westberg: 14

Not on the list above:

• Grail 
• Haystack Butte
• Hawkeye
  
• Oakdale
  
• Parshall
• Truax
• Van Hook
  

Operators: number of permits:

• CLR: 125
• BR: 110
• MRO: 99
• Hess: 50
• Whiting: 50
• XTO: 46
• Enerplus: 45
• Petro-Hunt: 38
• Slawson: 29
• WPX: 28 
• Kraken: 24
• Zavanna: 20
• Crescent Point: 17
• Petroshale: 15
• Oasis: 13
• Sinclair: 9
• KODA Resources: 8
• Lime Rock: 6
• Equinor: 5
• Iron Oil: 4 
• Nine Point Energy: 3
• Liberty Resources: 3
• Bruin: 1
• EOG: 1
• Red Tail Energy: 1
• SHD: 1
• True Oil: 1
• Rimrock: 1
  

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

Number of new permits by year:

2008: 944 permits

• first permit: 17002
• last permit: 17945

2009: 625 permits

• first permit: 17946
• last permit: 18570

2010: 1,676 permits

• first permit: 18571
• last permit: 20246

2011: 1,924 permits;

• first permit: 20247
• last permit: 22170

2012: 2,522 permits

• first permit: 22171
• last permit: 24692

2013: 2,667 permits

• first permit: 24693
• last permit: 27359

2014: 3,010 permits

• first permit: 27360
• last permit: 30369

2015: 2,055 permits

• first permit: 30370
• last permit: 32424

2016: 818 permits

• first permit: 32425
• last permit: 33242

2017: 1,189 permits

• first permit: 33243
• last permit: 34431

2018: 1,466 permits

• first permit: 34432
• last permit: 35898

2019: 1,397 permits

• first permit: 35899
• last permit: 37295

2020:  751 gas and oil permits

• permits, #37296 - #38059 (first year in which permit numbers included O&G; CCS; SWD)
• nine of them were salt water disposal wells
• three carbon capture and storage
• 751 gas and oil permits

Two New Permits, Twenty Permits Renewed -- New Year's Eve -- 2020

 Active rigs:

	12/31/2020	12/31/2019	12/31/2018	12/31/2017	12/31/2016
Active Rigs	13	55	67	49	39

Two new permits, #38058 - #38059, inclusive:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Whiting has permits for two Littlefield Federal wells in NWNW 34-154-91; both 2485 FSL and 390 - 435 FWL; Sanish oil field

Twenty permits renewed:

• Operator: NP
• Permits renewed:
• two McDonald permits, 32-143-102, Billings
• three Little Mo Federal permits, 12-142-102, Billings
• one Mosser Federal permit, 22-143-102, Billings
• three Audrey permits, 35-143-103, Golden Valley
• five Trotter Federal permits, 26-145-102, McKenzie
• six Roosevelt Federal permits, 28-143-102, Billings,

The EIA "914" Has Posted -- December 31, 2020

Link here. 

First things first. This is really cool. When the NDIC Director's Cut came out in mid-December with October, 2020, data, the preliminary numbers suggested that month-over-month there was a slight decline in North Dakota crude oil production, October/September. 

My "blog title" at the time: October production exceeded that of September. I was pretty sure that when the official figures came out later the "newer" / revised numbers would show that increase. And, in fact, they did, according to the EIA 914 for October, 2020.

The preliminary data at that time, from the NDIC Director's Cut:

Crude oil production:

• October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary)
• September: 1,223,107 bopd
• delta: 236 bopd
• delta: 0.00%

Now, the EIA data for October, 2020.

In kbpd.

Texas:

• Oct: 4,632
• Sept: 4,631
• up 0.1%

North Dakota:

• Oct: 1,218
• Sept: 1,212
• up: 0.5%

Whoo-hoo. 

Over at the sidebar at the right, I asked, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, which would survive the meltdown best -- the Bakken or the Permian. 

In the big scheme of things, the Permian did better through the slowdown, but at least for the most recent production numbers, North Dakota proved more resilient, up 0.5% m/m vs 01% for Texas.

But I'll give "it" to the Permian. 

Anything else of note in the most recent EIA figures? Month-over-month, change:

• US: down 4.1%
• Alaska: up 4.0%
• Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: down a whopping 29.8% (even worse, year-over-year, down 44.8%). That should please the Biden enviromentalists.
  
• New Mexico: up 5.6% month/month; up 13.3% y/y

For The Archives -- For The Grandchildren -- Nothing About The Bakken -- December 31, 2020

Updates

Okay: this blog is closed. Comments will be accepted but no more updates. Enough is enough. Time to move on. 

Later, 1:53 p.m. CT: first it was the buskers about six months ago; now, through Emmylou Harris, it's "the basket houses": a cafe or similar establishment where musical performances are given and the performers are then paid with money placed in a basket by members of the audience. 

Later, 1:46 p.m. CT: and, of all things, this all led me to this Emmylou Harris interview, posted just two weeks ago -- December 17, 2020. I'm always looking for "news" WRT Emmylou Harris.

Later, 1:35 p.m. CT: and that brings us to the Farfisa and Sam the Sham. 

Later, 1:24 p.m. CT: more on Doug Sahm (and Charlie Pride, and Bob Dylan). Some may recognize Doug's backup vocalist on this song:

Later, 1:12 p.m. CT: flashback: when Sir Doug died in New Mexico. From that link, provided by the reader who started this whole digression from the Bakken:

In the 1970s [Doug Sahm] became an icon of the ``Cosmic Cowboy'' scene in Austin, along with Willie Nelson and Jerry Jeff Walker. 

In 1973 he recorded an album called Doug Sahm & Band, which featured appearances by Bob Dylan, Dr. John and Flaco Jimenez. 

In the late 1980s Sahm teamed up with Freddy Fender, Jimenez and Meyers to form the Tex-Mex super group The Texas Tornados, which had hits with songs such as "Who Were You Thinking Of ?" and "Hey Baby Que Paso?"

Original Post 

We lived in San Antonio, TX, for over ten years before moving to north Texas in 2013 (during those ten years or so we also spent much time visiting and living in Portsmouth, NH; Summerville (Charleston), SC; and Boston, MA). But we have huge emotional ties to San Antonio, TX.

A reader sent me links to two Flaco Jiménez videos -- one of them on this page. My reply to the reader after watching the videos:

So much could be written.

1. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's detective Sherlock Holmes was famous for identifying the geographical origin of an individual based on accent, dialect, whatever. Well, I about fell off my chair listening to Flaco Jiménez -- he sounded exactly like my father-in-law. Flaco was born/raised in San Antonio. My father-in-law was born / raised in Beeville, a small town just south of San Antonio.

2. I had forgotten all about Freddy Fender and the Texas Tornados. I used to listen to them frequently; don't recall if I've ever posted anything by them on the blog.

3. Finally, all that blue. Let's call it indigo. You can read about it on the blog when I get it posted later this morning. 

Okay, so here's the video:

The Texas Tornados("If you've got the dinero, I've got the Camaro")

Look at all that blue. Let's call it indigo.

From On Color, David Scott Kastan, c. 2018, p. 121:

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- December 31, 2020

Link here. 

From A Reader -- Why I Love Texas -- December 31, 2020

That about says it all. 

Happy New Year y'all. 

*****************************************
The Movie Page

Last night, I watched two classic Hitchcock movies and a third of the same genre, all back to back. Absolutely outstanding. I had seen all three in bits and pieces over the years but do not recall ever having watched them from start to finish. 

I remember, the first time I saw some early scenes in Cape Fear. I was unable to "handle" the terror -- Robert Mitchum -- wow -- and so I quit watching early in the film. But last night I was ready for it and watched the movie in its entirety.

I had never noticed all the "bird" stuff in Psycho which foreshadowed The Birds. 

Birds in Psycho? See this review. Roger Ebert's review is here. 

The Birds: I'm glad I finally watched the entire movie, but have no desire to ever see it again. I could watch Psycho again. Cape Fear? Probably not.

Notes From All Over -- The Restaurant Review Edition -- December 31, 2020

Top 250 restaurants. At the link, one can quickly scroll through the top 250 restaurants in the US. Looks like a nice link / source that I had not seen before. Main site here.

Restaurant closures: A nice overview, albeit superficial, of the number of restaurant sites that are being closed among the top chains.

The pandemic simply expedited the closure of a lot of marginal restaurant locations. Worse than most years but in the big scheme of things, not that big of a deal. 

Twenty-eight restaurant chains listed. Number 28 on the list was Benihana. In 2019 and 2020, it announced only one Benihana that was closing, the one in Sacramento, CA, but then this: "the company this year announced plans to expand in the U.S. and develop franchises in the Caribbean, Central America and South America.

Los Angeles skid row, no comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TwW9tnkhQg&feature=youtu.be. Original link here. Okay, one comment: after watching that, I'm glad I spent my time watching three classic Hitchcock movies on TCMl last night rather than watching this crap stuff.

AAPL / Apple, Inc: several links; some stories (different sources) previously posted:

• why AAPL could be a growth stock in 2021; no mention of the car; Motley Fool;
• Apple's big iOS14 update could wound these two tech giants (Facebook and Alphabet); Motley Fool;
• Apple phones take 9 of top 10 spots in activations on Christmas Day, The Street;

Penultimate: link here. 

FTSE 100 [The London Exchange] ends 2020 with annual loss of 14%. Worst since 2008. Compare with multiple records among US indices: Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Russell 2000.

JCP CEO: broke through the glass ceiling only to fall through the sky light. CEO out after two years of failure. Harsh. 

Amazon gets bigger: swallows up podcast startup Wondery. Link at The Wall Street Journal. Paywall but I'm sure the story is everywhere.

• purchase price not disclosed, but rumor has it, about $300 million (isn't that what Jeff Bezos makes about every five minutes?)
• founded in 2016, one of several podcast startups
• known for its gritty, narrative-driven podcasts that supply cinematic sound design to nonfiction stories;
• will greatly improve accessibility / broaden it's audience  now that it's part of Amazon
• Amazon is tracked here; as an Amazon Prime member, I'm thrilled
  

Minot AFB:  B-52s flying over Mideast are from Minot AFB, ND. A nice way to spend the winter, in sunny Saudi Arabia or from wherever they are based. Probably not landing / taking off from aircraft carriers, but nothing surprises me any more when it comes to the B-52. LOL.  Just kidding. Can you imagine the size of the a/c carrier to support a B-52 or two? 

Bitcoin: market value surpasses Berkshire Hathaway overnight. 

Energy: from a few days ago -- the largest energy bill in a decade was just passed. You can guess what's in it. Savvy investors will take note. I'm thinking distribution transformers. 

Batteries: QuantumScape releases performance data for its solid-state battery technology. For the archives. I'm really not interested today.

Colleges: finally cutting tuition. And along with severe revenue cuts from athletic programs, one can imagine a number of universities / colleges in financial panic. Again, for the archives; I'm not interested.

Just asking for a friend:

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List To Be Reported Today -- RBN With Top Ten Blogs This Past Year -- December 31, 2020

Active rigs:

$47.86	12/31/2020	12/31/2019	12/31/2018	12/31/2017	12/31/2016
Active Rigs	13	55	67	49	39

No wells coming off the confidential list (there was no June 31 six months ago).

RBN Energy: Top RBN blogs of 2020: meltdown, shut-ins, NGLs, and hydrogen. 

Well, here we are. The last day of 2020. We are tempted to say “unprecedented” to describe the year. But the word is so overused — there’s been an unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented” — let’s just say it will be good riddance to have this one behind us. After all, we’ve seen a collapse in transportation fuel demand, an oil price war between major producers, negative $37/bbl crude prices, massive LNG cargo cancellations — the list goes on — all in the context of a global pandemic and much of the world committed to weaning itself off fossil fuels over the next few decades. How do you make sense of all that? How do you anticipate when it’s going to be “all right” again? Well, one thing we can do is to heed the events and trends that captured the market’s attention during all this chaos. In other words, to put a spotlight on the things that the market considers top priority — crowd-sourced market intelligence, if you will. Well, at RBN we have one way to do that. We scrupulously monitor the website hit rate of the RBN blogs that are fired off to over 30,000 people each day and, at the end of each year, we look back to see which topics generated the most interest from you, our readers. That hit rate reveals a lot about major market trends. So, once again, we look into the rear-view mirror to check out the Top 10 blogs of the year based on the number of rbnenergy.com website hits.

As you might expect, this year’s Top 10 has absolutely nothing in common with 2019’s. Back in that long-gone era, it was all about supply — too much of it. The market needed more pipelines, more export docks, more petchem plants, more gas-processing plants, more of just about anything infrastructure-related. By April 2020, that world was a distant memory. This year the Top 10 is mostly related to demand — not enough of it. COVID whacked demand for all things hydrocarbon, which crushed prices, prompting well shut-ins and drilling cutbacks, which slashed production, leaving much of the infrastructure developed in the pre-COVID world well short of enough throughput to fill capacity. Given this new reality, let’s see what the top blogs of 2020 can tell us about how the market dealt with the meltdown, why some market segments have recovered faster than others, and what we might expect in the coming year. Just like any year-end Top 10 list, we’ll start with #10 and work our way up to #1.

10: Shut downs.
9: Marcellus / Utica gas producers cut natural gas production.
8: Canada's propane exports.
7: NGLs.
6: Hydrogen.
5: Crude oil prices tumble.
4: New Permian-to-Gulf gas pipelines
3: Futures markets and crude oil
2: Outlook for fossil fuel
1: Crude oil meltdown, futures contracts, and crude storage, 4/20/20

And The North Dakota Farmers All Raised Their Hands --- Can We Get An "Amen"? -- December 31, 2020

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- XTO -- December 30, 2020

The XTO Wood wells are also tracked here. 

The four new XTO Wood permits:

• 38054, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Truax, 223 FNL 1924 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38055, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25EXH, Truax, 253 FNL 1931 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38056, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25C, Truax, 370 FNL 1956 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38057, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25H, Truax, 399 FNL 1962 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;

The graphics:

The producing wells in the graphic:

• 24233, IA/1,948, XTO, Wood 21X-25A, 33-105-02868, Truax, t4/13; cum 267K 3/20; remains off line 10/20; stimuated 3/27/13; 30 stages; 2.75 million lbs proppant;
  
• 24232, IA/1,678, XTO, Wood 21X-25AXB, 33-105-02867, Truax, t4/13; cum 241K 4/20; remains off line 10/20; stimulated 3/15/13; 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs proppant;
  
• 20503, 560, XTO, Wood 21X-25B, 33-105-02148, Truax, t4/13; cum 298K 10/20; stimulated 3/21/13; 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs proppant;
  

The confidential well in that graphic:

• 37818, conf, CLR, Dallas 4-30H, 33-105-05554, Truax,

A Closer Look At A Slawson Muskrat Federal Well In Big Bend / Van Hook -- December 30, 2020

This is a great well to study to get an understanding of how operators manage their assets in the Bakken. Be sure to look at the recent production:

• 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, 33-061-01424,Van Hook, t1/11; cum 577K 10/20; stimulated 12/31/10 - 01/07/11; 40 stages; 3.7 million lbs proppant; see full production profile here; FracFocus does not have any data for this well; it was sometime in 2011/2012 that FracFocus started posting frack data; FracFocus doesn't have frack data for wells fracked before "that date";
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2020	30	6780	6287	4020	4372	4126	95
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	6970	7306	4005	4331	4180	1
BAKKEN	8-2020	24	5165	3961	2373	3112	2907	84
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	24	1333	22	44	21	13
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	38	0	0	34	28	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	6	1245	0	157	664	322	312
BAKKEN	4-2020	6	1093	1818	470	712	682	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	5658	5834	4383	3422	2853	414
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	5840	5547	6914	3568	1707	1716
BAKKEN	1-2020	22	4099	4119	7291	2692	1779	375
BAKKEN	12-2019	7	3560	2874	320	2215	630	1172
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	4	353	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	23	1566	1760	668	1136	829	26
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	2031	1823	712	1473	1093	14

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- The Slawson Muskrat Wells -- December 30, 2020

Updates

January 23, 2022: the Slawson Muskrat Federal wells are starting to come off confidential list this next week;

September 13, 2021: production update.

The Wells

Slawson with three new Muskrat Federal / Vagabond Federal permits:

• 38075, conf-->drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 6-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1130 FEL, t--; cum 156K 10/22;
  
• 38076, conf-->drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 7-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1080 FEL, t--; cum 124K 10/22;
  
• 38077, conf-->drl, Slawson, Vagabond Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1030 FEL, t--; cum 155K 10/22;
  

Slawson with four new permits on BLM land:

• 38046, conf-->loc/drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1530 FWL, NENW 28-151-92, t--; cum 232K 10/22;
  
• 38047, conf-->loc/drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1480 FWL, NENW 28-151-92, t--; cum 185K 10/22;
  
• 38048, conf-->loc/drl, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1380 FWL, NENW 28-151-92, t--; cum 116K 10/22;
  
• 38049, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1330 FWL, NENW 28-151-92, t--; cum 172K 10/22;
  

The graphic:

The other two wells in this section:

• 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, 33-061-01424,Van Hook, t1/11; cum 577K 10/20; stimulated 12/31/10 - 01/07/11; 40 stages; 3.7 million lbs proppant; see full production profile here; cum 614K 4/21; nice jump in production; still "flowing, no pump"; offline 5/21; cum 614K 4/21; cum 660K 10/22;
  
• 20267, 737, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 2-28-33H, 33-061-01653, Van Hook, t9/11; cum 473K 10/20; stimulated 8/30/11; 40 stages; 3.98 million lbs proppant; cum 484K 4/21; offline 5/21; cum 489K 4/21; cum 515K 10/22;
  

And this section line well:

• 30177, IA/F-->A/F, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, 33-061-03430, Big Bend, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 63K 2/20; intermittent since 2/20 and off line as of 7/20; legal description: sections 28/28/32/33-151-92; no frack data; FracFocus: fracked 11/30/19 - 12/18/19; 14.4 million gallons of water (a huge frack); 92.8% water by mass; cum 121K 4/21; cum 202K 11/21; cum 298K 10/22;
  

Pardon The Interruption --December 30, 2020

Wow, what a great night. TCM: The Birds, followed by Psycho and that followed by Cape Fear. Wow, wow, wow. Is this the first time I've watched all three from start to finish?

• Norman Bates.
• Holden Caulfield.
• Jay Gatsby.

Best news: apparently it's a full trading day tomorrow. The last day of the year. Should be fun to watch. 

Scrooge: Mitch McConnell. Good, bad, or indifferent, a lot of folks are going to be thrilled when Biden is sworn in and for them, it will be the cherry on top if the Dems sweep Georgia. [Despite my cynicism, I actually think McConnell knows what he is doing.]

ExxonMobil on the cusp. In the same boat as Saudi Aramco:

• unexpected demand hit;
• the dividend issue

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- December 30, 2020

I've been thinking about "this" for the past year but I am unable to articulate it, so I cannot post my thoughts, and generally, when I get too far in front of my headlights, I get a fair amount of pushback from anonymous experts.

I have a thin skin. I don't like the pushback, so I generally try to stay "within my headlights." 

We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:

• the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
• the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will); 
• global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
• price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).
  

This post looks at the new BR permits as perhaps the post we will come back to a year from now to demonstrate how things evolved in the Bakken if, in fact, we move to Bakken 5.0.

Two dots to connect. First, the new BR "Renegade" and "Chuckwagon permits. See these two posts:

• the Renegade wells; I've never followed the Chuckwagon wells so for now, will have to link the Renegade wells;
  
• the new Renegade / Chuckwagon permits.

Then look at this old Chuckwagon well:

• 20528, 2,892, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15MBH, 33-053-03510; Sand Creek, t12/11; cum 213K 10/20; recent production (see full production profile at this post):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2020	26	13747	14132	18996	34495	0	34495
BAKKEN	9-2020	27	16402	16213	24009	37361	0	37361
BAKKEN	8-2020	23	11701	11494	26238	30070	3724	26346
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	2	0	0	5227	313	0	313
BAKKEN	3-2020	1	87	87	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	6	128	488	131	470	0	470
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	563	416	563	2511	0	2511
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	758	982	754	2855	2395	460

From the file report:

• sundry form, approx start date: Ocober 17, 2019: BR respectfully requested to re-stimulate this well; a plug and perf stimulation followed by a coil tubing cleanout;
• the original frack: stimulation, 10/3/11; 20 stages; 2.3 million lbs proppant;

FracFocus:

• first frack, 10/2/11 - 10/2/11 (one day): 1.5 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass;
• second frack, 3/24/20 - 4/1/20 (one week): 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass;

Notes From All Over -- The Dollar Edition -- December 30, 2020

Earlier this year, back in May, to be specific, there was a lot of concern / interest in the Canadian dollar as it plunged towards 70 cents American. See this link. Earlier in December, this month, the Canadian dollar started to fall again, but then recovered. It's general trend remains up. See this link. Over the past five years, the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar has been fairly steady but over the ten-year period, its weakness has been profound.

 For the US dollar, "90" has seemed to be the floor and dropping below "90" will be a topic of conversation on CNBC. Today, the dollar dropped below "90," apparently settling at about 89.5. Link here. 

One can argue that the recent rise in the price of WTI is simply tied to the weakness of the dollar. 

The ten-year chart may be somewhat reassuring but I'm not sure.

MRO's Millie Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- The 2M-P-R-2T Pad

Locator: 10010MROMILLIE.

Updates

October 13, 2023: production update; wells have just begin production;

Original Post

The wells:

• 38040, loc, MRO, TR USA 24-7H, Bailey, 612 FNL 490 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38041, loc, MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 581 FNL 456 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38042, loc, MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 550 FNL 439 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38043, loc, MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 519 FNL 414F FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38044, loc, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey, 488 FNL 389 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38045, loc, MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 241 FNL 1261 FEL, lot 1 18-146-94;

The graphics:

 The two producing wells:

• 16807, 305, MRO, George Tuhy 11-18H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 177K 10/20;
  
• 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 465K 10/20; a re-frac; stimulated/tested 3/2/15, 30 stages; 2.9 million lbs proppant; originally an open-hole frack, 2/11/08, 500K lbs sand;

EVs

Updates

December 27, 2022: update.

October 19, 2022: BMW -

• $1.7 billion; EVs at their South Carolina plant;

February 2, 2022, GM guidance:

• will spend $35 billion on EVs and autonomous vehicles;
• will build third EV truck factory;
• will build fourth battery factory.

January 24, 2022, link here:

• market cap: Lucid now has a market cap greater than Rivian;
• why Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla all crashed today;

December 12, 2021: top five EV manufacturers, Investor's Business Daily:

• Top five for investors:
• Tesla
• GM
• F
• BYD
• Xpeng
• Big names with neither strong track records of earnings growth nor market outperformance:
• Fisker (FSR)
• Canoo (GOEV)
• Faraday Future (FFIE)
• Lordstown (RIDE),
• Xos (XOS
• Bringing in revenue, America:
• Lucid (LCID)
• Rivian (RIVN)
• Unprofitable but bringing in revenue, Chinese:
• Nio (NIO)
• Xpen (XPEV)
• Li Auto (Li)
• Supercar:
• first all-electric supercar, 2025: Ferrari (RACE)
• Charging stations:
• ChargePoint (CHPT)
• EVgo (EVGO)
• Blink Charging (BLNK)
• Wallbox (WBX)
• Powertrains for big-rig:
• Hyliion (HYLN) -- as well as hydrogen
• Battery packs for commercial EV fleets:
• Romeo Power (RMO)
• Major breakthrough in solid-state lithium metal batteries:
• QuantumScape (QS)
• Battery enclosures for GM's Hummer, due in late 2021;
• Magna (MGA): also makes e-drive gearboxes for Nio and Xpeng; will also make the Fisker Ocean SUV, due out late 2022

March 12, 2021:

• TSLA down slightly; trading at $700;
• RIDE (Lordstown) plunged 16% today;

Commentaries, Editorials

• Reality sucks, January 24, 2021.
  
• January 2, 2021.

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By Company

BMW:

• South Carolina, $1.7 billion, EVs.

Tesla:

• BofA just set a new price target for TSLA -- a "street" high of $900/share. Link here. Announced / posted January 11, 2021.
  

Ford:

• first Mustang Mach-E delivered to Dallas, TX; link here; see this at Schwa Nation; a Mustang in name only -- Dan Neil, The WSJ, January 1, 2021; update here;

Chrysler: 

• FiatChrysler and PSA (French: Peugeot, Citroen, etc) to merge, link here; 
• purpose: jump start EVs

Apple:

• likely to sign partner agreement with Hyundai, March, 2021, to begin production, 2024;
  
• Magna Steyr, January 6, 2021.

Lucid: 

• looks to go public, January 11, 2021.
  

Tata, Indian-based:

• 53% of its retail sales for 4Q20 were EVs; lifting CY20 EVs to 43% of total sales;

Charging stations:

• McKinsey: how to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure. 

California

• executive order seeking to ban sales of new ICE cars from 2035; $1.5 billion incentive package to spur EV development; January 7, 2021;

Lithium shortage 

• long-lasting bull market in commodities, GS; January 19, 2021
  

EV infrastructure:

• January 29, 2021: a reader asked about investing opportunities in US EV infrastructure. Easy-peasy:
• each charging staging needs computer chips and sensors: #1 in such stuff -- TSMC and AAPL.
• does electricity still move from charging station to vehicle in a rubber-covered tube of copper? Or does electricity move by some other method? Here's the answer: Aluminum has cost and weight advantages over copper and is the preferred material for electricity transmission and distribution uses today. Due to aluminum's superior conductivity-to-weight ratio compared with copper, the metal is now used for wiring in residences, buildings, aircraft and appliances
• China may build the components, but it's going to be local contractors putting in the charging stations.
• Here are the top 20 companies that make charging stations: https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2019/05/01/top-20-electric-vehicle-charging-station-companies/22138/

Eighteen New Permits -- December 30, 2020

Mark Perry, Carpe Diem: animated chart of the day -- world's top ten billionaires, 2000 to 2020.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.30	12/30/2020	12/30/2019	12/30/2018	12/30/2017	12/30/2016
Active Rigs	13	55	66	49	39

Eighteen new permits, #38040 - #38057, inclusive, between December 18, 2020 and December 30, 2020 (I was traveling during this period and did not get caught up until today) :

• Operators:
• MRO: 6 permits in Bailey oil field; a 2M-P-R-2T pad;
  
• Slawson: 4 permits in Big Bend; a Muskrat Federal pad;
  
• BR: 4 permits in Sand Creek; a Renegade/Chuckwagon pad;
  
• XTO: 4 permits in Truax; a Wood pad;
  
• The permits:
• 38040, loc, MRO, TR USA 24-7H, Bailey, 612 FNL 490 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38041, loc, MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 581 FNL 456 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38042, loc, MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 550 FNL 439 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38043, loc, MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 519 FNL 414 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38044, loc, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey, 488 FNL 389 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38045, loc, MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 241 FNL 1261 FEL, lot 1 18-146-94;
• 38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1530 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
• 38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1480 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
• 38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1380 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
• 38049, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1330 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
• 38050, conf, BR, Renegade 14-10TFH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 541 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
• 38051, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 11-15TFH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 586 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
• 38052, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 11-15MBH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 631 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
• 38053, conf, BR, Renegade 14-10MBH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 676 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
• 38054, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Truax, 223 FNL 1924 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38055, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25EXH, Truax, 253 FNL 1931 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38056, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25C, Truax, 370 FNL 1956 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
• 38057, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25H, Truax, 399 FNL 1962 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;

Three permits renewed:

• Petro-Hunt (2): two Lovdahl permits in Mountrail County;
• BR: a Manchester permit in Dunn County;

The BR Renegade wells are tracked here. 

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Afternoon Edition -- December 30, 2020

AAPL: this is really, really cool. AAPL hit its "buy point" a couple of days ago, but then it moved back. What's going on? Investors are selling a bit of AAPL for various reasons:

• professional managers: want to lock in their profits; make 2020 look as good as it can; will be back to buy AAPL after the New Year:
• mom-and-pop retail: paying off credit card bills; Christmas shopping bills; they only have to sell a few shares but in the aggregate more selling than buying;
• this is why the Santa Claus rally extends into the first two trading days after the New Year
  

Investors should love this:

American firepower: must drive them (the "bad guys") nuts.

China flu watch -- North Dakota:

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The Movie Page

My wife knows everything about the movies. I know nothing about the movies, at least in the big scheme of things. With TCM, I am gradually catching up.

Hitchcock's The Birds is on TCM tonight. I don't know if I've ever watched the whole movie; the whole premise seemed ridiculous. But here I am, watching the big screen movie on the little screen. 

How could I miss this? Suzanne Pleshette.

Those in my generation were in our tweens when The Birds was released. On the other hand, my generation grew up with Suzanne Pleshette in the Bob Newhart Show. But here she is, in The Birds. In 1963, she was twenty-six years old so I assume she was twenty-four to twenty-five years old when she tried out for the part and when she played the part. 

As gorgeous and as wonderful Pleshette was in the Bob Newhart Show I was stunned by how Elizabeth-Taylor-esque Pleshette appeared standing in the doorway early in the movie. 

Via Wiki I see Suzanne Pleshette died in 2008 at the age of seventy, of lung cancer. In The Birds she is seen smoking in her scenes. Some irony, there, I suppose. In fact, Tippi Hedron is also seen smoking in her scenes. Pretty sad.

Seventy years old. My wife and I are fortunate to have made it to the same age in good health. If you have it, never take your good health for granted. It's a wonderful gift.

Chariots On Fire -- December 30, 2020

 

Weekly EIA Report -- December 30, 2020

Updates

Later, 1:48 p.m. CT: 

Original Post

Two stories developing:

• distillate fuel inventories relative to five-year average;
• jet fuel delivered trending toward the mean;

Link here.

• US crude oil supplies decreased by a remarkable 6.1 million bbls from the previous week;
• US crude oil in storage now at 493.5 million bbls, about 11% above the already-fat-five-year average;
• US refiners operating at 79.4% operable capacity;
• the US imported 5.3 million bbls per day last week, down by 238,000 bopd fro the previous week;
• imports over the past four weeks about 14.4% less than same period last week;
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million bbls last week and are about 6% above the already-fat-five-year average for this time of year;
• jet fue supplied was down 31.8% compared with same four-week period last year;

A quick look at the numbers suggests the big story is distillate fuel inventories. I did this quickly and there may be errors but this is my spreadsheet:

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions	Relative to 5-Yr Avg
Week 1	August 26, 2020	1.40	24.0%
Week 2	September 2, 2020	-1.70	23.0%
Week 3	September 10, 2020	-1.70	20.0%
Week 4	September 16, 2020	3.50	22.0%
Week 5	September 23, 2020	-3.40	21.0%
Week 6	September 30, 2020	-3.20	21.0%
Week 7	October 7, 2020	-1.00	23.0%
Week 8	October 15, 2020	-7.20	19.0%
Week 9	October 21, 2020	-3.80	19.0%
Week 10	October 28, 2020	-4.50	17.0%
Week 11	November 4, 2020	-1.60	18.0%
Week 12	November 12, 2020	-5.40	15.0%
Week 13	November 18, 2020	-5.20	11.0%
Week 14	November 25, 2020	-1.40	8.0%
Week 15	December 2, 2020	3.20	8.0%
Week 16	December 9, 2020	5.20	11.0%
Week 17	December 16, 2020	0.20	11.0%
Week 18	December 23, 2020	-2.30	10.0%
Week 19	December 30, 2020	3.10	6.0%

Note how down the change is "relative to the five-year average. Again, if I have this wrong, "focus on fracking" will sort it out Sunday night. 

Gasoline demand, link here: