Four New Permits; Global Oil Consumption Hits Historic Milestone -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48102B.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.    
  

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Late Afternoon News

Costco: to raise its membership fees. For most, $60 to $65.

Peak oil demand. Say what? 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $82.40.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #40912 - #40915, inclusive:

• Operators: BR (2), Hess, Rockport Energy Solutions
• Fields: Elidah (McKenzie); Dollar Joe (Williams); Ranch Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for a Cleetwood well and a Phantom Ship well, both SWSE 22-152-97;
• one to be sited 836 FSL and 2247 FE: and, the other 708 FNL and 1197 FEL; both in spacing unit sections 15 / 22 / 27 / 34-152-97;
• Hess has a permit for a GO-Layton well, lot 4, section 18-156-97; 
• to be sited 385 FSL and 939 FWL; spacing unit: sectioins 19 / 30 / 31-156-97;
• Rockport Energy has a permit for an Annie well, NEne 18-146-98, 
• to be sited 365 FNL and 1197 FEL; spacing unit: sections 6 / 7-146-98;

One producing well (a DUC) reported to be completed:

• 30914, 132, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH, McKenzie County; no production data; the BR Curtis wells are tracked here.

Apple -- Amazing -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48101APPLE.

Link here. Go to twitter and search Evan Apple and see what folks are saying.

Among so many other things, this was just one more data point that drove AAPL higher today, link here:

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The Music Page 

Released September 21, 2023 

See wiki.

Big Investment Story Of The Day -- AMD -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48101AMD.

Link here.

Bidenomics: The Market Loved JPow's Testimony -- JPow Is Coming Across As A Bit Nervous About Waiting Any Longer -- Did He Wait Too Long?July 10, 2024

Locator: 48100INV.

JPow: getting anxious. If it's a hard landing, but he cuts soon, he will get some sympathy / support for at least trying to prevent a hard landing, but if it's a hard landing and he made no effort to make the first cut by September, he will be heavily criticized. A lot of folks will argue that "they've" been warning him for months. All 20/20 hindsight, of  course.

AAPL: seventh consecutive record close. Even CNBC is getting giddy about AAPL.

TSLA: eleven consecutive days of new highs.

AAPL - 7 -- TSLA - 11: 7/11 --> "7-11 day" -- free Slurpies tomorrow. 

S&P 500 and NASDAQ: record close. 

VIX: just barely above 12.

NASDAQ winner: Micron -- up 5.25%.

Is the market getting too frothy?

My favorite chart: link here.

Link here.

That increase, not only was it a reversal of the two previous months, the increase was not trivial. And, oh by the way, in the process, set an all-time record.

There are a lot of folks who have money on the sidelines -- albeit earning upwards of 5% -- but still -- a lot of folks with hundreds of thousands of dollars on the sidelines are starting to wonder if they just missed the biggest bull market in years.

Politics: This Is Not Coincidental -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48099BIDEN.

Updates

Later, 7:13 p.m. CDT: Chuck Schumer is open to a change at the top of the ticket. 

Original Post

With regard to US presidential politics, nothing consequential is done without meticulous planning. So a double whammy in the past 24 hours from Nancy Pelosi and George Clooney cannot be simply coincidental. Both "camps" have been in the political news lately and it was obvious, in hindsight, that plans for milestones (stepping blocks) were planned and are now being executed. 

It is difficult to name two more well-known California celebrities -- one from Washington, DC, and one from Hollywood -- than Pelosi and Clooney. For the Dems they are a power couple made in heaven.

And California politicos --> Gavin Newsom.

This is not rocket science.

 The fact that "we" are about as high

Yep -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48098BEARS.

They all bought bonds and/or Treasuries and earning 4%. Whoo-hoo. 

Bidenomics: S&P 500 Just Crossed Above 5,600 For First Time Ever -- Market -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48096INV.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   
  

Breaking: Nancy Pelosi says Joe Biden should re-examine his decision to continue his campaign.

S&P 500: ten points from 5,600.

Basel III: wiki.

Basel III was published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in November 2010, and was scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2015; however, implementation was extended repeatedly to 1 January 2022 and then again until 1 January 2023, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It should be noted that US banks (and therefore, the US Congress) hate Basel III and are pushing to have it amended. In 2010, President Barack Obama, a globalist was president.

In 2017, Trump became president.

AAPL: tops $3.5 trillion, market cap.

• opens above $230 -- 20% ytd gain
• up almost one percent today
• up $1.60
• another upgrade: up to $260
• ad market: margins at 78%

Ad dollars, now going to:

• YouTube
• Amazon (this one is particularly interesting)
• Reddit

Magnificent 7. 

Link here.

Cramer:

• first ten days in July have been remarkable ... and it continues; several upgrades
• ASML: surging; up $14 in early morning trading
  
• Micron mentioned quickly in passing
• deflation: huge concerns for legacy companies that usually are great defense stocks
• exhibit A: Kellogg; Kellogg has been downgraded;
  
• prediction: some hyperscaler will eventually buy an LNG company
• Amazon buying Coterra -- needs to be fact-checked; David Faber mentioned it -- then a crawler 
• see this post, June 18, 2024;
  
• drinking game -- "hyperscaler"  -- in play -- less than a minute into Cramer's show - now mentioned it a second time; at the 38-minute marker, "hyperscaler" mentioned for the third time.
  
• big story: Tesla (does not interest me at all) 
• mentions Helen of Troy -- Cramer says those customers going to WMT and COST
• WMT doing more to lower inflation than JPow -- Cramer 
• Walmart is opening five automated distribution centers as it tries to keep its grocery dominance; link here;
  
• WMT and COST: really, really favored by Cramer among retail 
• my wife and I were at Costco yesterday to pick up some nori which she is unable to find anywhere else
• picked up a rotisserie chicken for $4.99
• I had forgotten how incredible those chickens are: 
• fresher than supermarket; definitely more moist; tastier
• fattier
  
• definitely larger
• and about half the price of supermarket rotisserie chicken
• still priced at $4.99
  

Jenny:

• link here.
• link here.

Personal investing:

• link here.
• discount brokers: I assume all the discount brokers are similar with regard to ease of use, so this is not a shout-out to Schwab -- but it's the only one I know
  
• I've never seen anything as good as Schwab for purposes of moving money around; as noted, I assume all the discount brokers are similar -- again, this is not a shout-out to Schwab -- but it's all I know
• in addition to ease of use, every financial vehicle available
• interest-bearing checking accounts to ETFs
  
• I have come to dislike the term, "discount broker" -- it suggests "Spirit Airlines" or "Ryan Airlines"
• can we start referring to Fidelity, Schwab, Robinhood as something else -- perhaps "mainstream, on-line, self-directed brokers" or MOLSDBs, pronounced "commission-free"
  
• top 11 "discount brokers," 2024; link here. 
• I don't know if they are listed in any particular order, but someone at Nerdwallet had to decide the order:

It should be noted, that among the "banks," JPM seems to be in a league of its own, and then it shows up in the table above -- notably Merrill Lynch / BofA is missing from that list.

Top ND Bakken Producers -- Devon-Grayson Mill Deal Changes Landscape -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48095B.

The Devon - Grayson Mill deal changes the landscape in the Bakken.

From Forbes:

The deal with private equity-owned Grayson Mill more than triples Devon’s footprint in the Williston, adding 307,000 net acres to its existing 123,000 acre position there.

It also adds roughly 500 drilling locations to Devon’s inventory, along with more than 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of existing production.

Overall, Devon expects its equity production to rise from the current 674,000 bopd to about 765,000 bopd. Enverus Intelligence Research principal analyst Andrew Dittmar tells me that the deal “vaults Devon from the 10th largest producer in the Williston based on gross operated production to fourth.”

In the chart below, we need to add Devon + Grayson Mill.

Rounding, it looks like, with regard to production:

• Chord + Enerplus will about equal CLR;
• COP + MRO will be about one-half that of CLR or Chord + Enerplus:
• HES will be a bit less than COP + MRO;
• Devon + Grayson Mill;  
• XOM (XTO) could be about half of HES

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Top ND Bakken Producers

Re-posting: the information below was posted prior to the Devon - Grayson Mill announcement.

Locator: 48034B.

Deals affecting the Bakken are posted at the sidebar at the right. 

This was posted some weeks ago.

This is fairly old news and I assume "everybody" that needs to know, knows, and it's only me who keeps forgetting.

But for the archives:

Some mineral owners in the Bakken may be receiving royalties from MRO.

MRO could remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP and and royalties still coming from MRO.

Or MRO could be absorbed by BR (a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP) or something entirely else.

We won't know for awhile. Or maybe someone one knows and I don't know.

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East Daley: MRO, COP, And The Bakken

The East Daley note referenced above was posted June 6, 2024, and is linked here.

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Producers

Rounding, it looks like, with regard to production:

• Chord + Enerplus will about equal CLR;
• COP + MRO will be about one-half that of CLR or Chord + Enerplus:
• HES will be a bit less than COP + MRO;
• XOM (XTO) could be about half of HES

So:

• the "big names"
  
• 1 unit: Chord + Enerplus    16/16
• 1 unit: CLR                        16/16
• 1/2 unit: COP + MRO        8/16
• 3/8 unit: HES                        6/16
• 3/16 unit: XOM                    3/16
• all of those "big names" totaled will equal about one-half of Bakken's total production; "others" would include:
• Kraken + Neptune
• Grayson Mill
• Zavanna
  
• EOG
  
• Petro-Shale
• Phoenix
  
• Hunt
• Slawson 
• Iron Oil Operating
• Empire North Dakota
• SOGC (Sinclair)
• KODA Resources
• Murex 
• True Oil
• Spotted Hawk, and,
• many others
  

Reminder:

• Chord was a merger of Oasis with Whiting;
• Chord is now buying Enerplus

WTI Gets No Respect; Continues To Fall -- TSMC Handily Beats Forecasts -- July 10, 2024

Locator: 48094B.

Whataburger: step aside Waffle House -- Texans now use Whataburger App  to track outages following Hurricane Beryl. Link everywhere, including here.

TSM: 2Q24 revenue jumps on AI boost; handily beats market forecasts. Link here. Up 2.4% in pre-market trading; up $4.45. What two companies are joined at the hip? TSMC and Apple.

Pre-market: tech could have another nice day. 

Cummins: increases dividend. From $1.68 to $1.82. An 8.3% increase.

Coal: US to increase domestic consumption on back of increased NG prices.

NEETS: number of those not choosing to work increasing; link here.

• NEETS: not in employment, education, or training
• mostly a young-male phenomenon
• the big question: why can they afford to do this
• not discussed: intergenerational transfer of wealth; it doesn't all happen after parents die

Demographics: financial.

• globally: number of millionaires to surge
• largest increase: Taiwan
• UK: the number will plunge
• horizontal transfer of wealth prior to intergenerational transfer

Demographics: financial. CBNC.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.17.

Friday, July 12, 2024: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 354 for the year
40244, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay 5292 22-7 9BX (Oasis naming scheme),
40230, conf, Neptune Operating, Gustafson 5-8 4H,

Thursday, July 11, 2024: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 352 for the year
None.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 352 for the year
40299, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 3B
40253, conf, CLR, Benner 5-7H,
39894, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-10,

RBN Energy: LOOP retains its niche amid proposed offshore crude export terminals. Archived.

As four proposed crude export terminals off the coast of Texas navigate the long and winding regulatory path toward potential construction, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) already does what they want to do. It’s the sole Gulf Coast terminal that can fully load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) bound for global markets. LOOP started as an import-only facility, but later flexed to bring oil in and move it out as the energy landscape changed. It’s easy to wonder whether a new offshore crude export facility might be redundant –— why build another one if LOOP could just export more? Turns out it’s not that simple. LOOP is different — in its construction, its connectivity, its role in balancing imports and exports and especially the types of crude it handles. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine LOOP’s niche in U.S. crude exports and the role it continues to play.