Traditional IRA Vs Roth -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47976IRA.

This is not an investment site. I have had no formal training in "money matters" of any sort. The following is simply how I see things and not advice or recommendations for anyone else. It is advice for my extended family members. I assume there will be content errors, and typographical errors. If something seems wrong, it probably is wrong. If this is important to you, even though it's not meant for you, go to the source. Don't take my advice.

So, awhile back, I wrote, with regard whether to fund a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA if given the opportunity / choice:

Traditional IRA or Roth IRA:

• the only "good" thing that a traditional IRA provides that a Roth IRA does not: a very, very minor tax break
• the tax break makes you feel good
• in fact, the tax break the traditional IRA provides is nothing -- absolutely nothing -- compared to the tax advantages of the Roth IRA
• if you really, really want that tax break that a traditional IRA provides, invest only in a Roth IRA but calculate the taxes you would save by investing in a traditional IRA: I will pay you that amount of savings in cash when you file your taxes (this was written for one extended family member and applied only to that one extended family member)
  
• note: in 2033, RMDs required starting at age 75.  
• Roth IRAs: RMDs never required.

I've said that for years. My original IRA was a traditional IRA -- Roth IRAs did not exist. When Roth IRAs came along, the general advice, it seemed, was to open a traditional IRA, not a Roth IRA. Somewhere along the line, to "diversify," I opened a Roth IRA but kept the traditional IRAs. Never converted.

But I continued to believe that the Roth IRA was "head and shoulders" better than a traditional IRA. In my mind, there was no comparison, no question which was better. The arguments that sophisticated financial advisors made -- that the traditional IRA was superior -- were inherently inconsistent -- their reasoning made no sense -- so believe me, take the Roth IRA, forget about the traditional IRA.

And guess what? I'm so correct, there's a small cottage industry in the US now where financial advisors help you convert your traditional IRA to Roth IRAs. That's how good Roth IRAs are. Everyone now realizes how incredibly awful the traditional IRA is compared to the Roth IRA. 

How bad is it?

From CNBC today: 

It's not a slam dunk only because of the fees and taxes involved to make the conversion. 

It still irks me when I see financial advice columnists advising folks to open a traditional IRA, rather than a Roth IRA.

Miscellaneous -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47975M.

Opinions of EVs: conservative respondents vs liberal respondents. Link here. This is one of the most interesting polls I've seen regarding this subject. I guess it's what we might expect. But 75% of "liberals" still have a positive opinion of ICE-vehicles.

Chinese emissions: link here.

**************************
Is Someone Spying On Me?

I'm sure it's just coincidental, but for some unknown reason I get messages with regard to movies from Reddit.com, usually one message every one or two days. Sometime late last week I was re-visiting Hellboy (2004 -- the original) -- one of my favorite movies -- and actually bought a copy for streaming from Amazon.com. 

We have Amazon's Fire Stick and we have Amazon's Echo (Alexa), which, of course, listens to everything we say. But as far as I know, there is no known relationship between Reddit and Amazon / Alexa.

But yesterday, one message from Reddit.com and it had to do with Hellboy (2019). It could have been completely coincidental, but one really wonders.

I never saw Hellboy (2019) and based on reviews I doubt I ever will. Reviews suggest that Hellboy (2004) is the best of the three (?).

NASDAQ Closes At Record High; Closes Above 17,000 For First Time Ever -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47974B.

New record: NASDAQ-listed companies are generally more affected by high-interest rates than the larger cap stocks in the Dow and S&P 500, all things being equal. "Cash 'n' carry" telegraphed no need for a cut in the Fed rate for "quite awhile," which I interpret as "not this year." That should be "bad news" for the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ hitting all-time highs and crossing 17,000 for the first time ever speaks volumes. 

NVDA was up more than 7% during the day, continued to rise after the market closed.

And then this: for oil bulls -- a great day. WTI up over 3% -- are you kidding me -- up over 3% -- up almost $2.50 -- and trading above $80 (again).

Hess / CVX: shareholders vote to approve the takeover. Now, let's see what XOM does. My hunch: 60 - 40 that either XOM or the US DOJ will stop the merger. In other words, better than even chance this deal won't go through any time soon or perhaps never.  

Chord Energy (CHRD): at the moment I find this the most "interesting" pure play (?) Bakken operator. They close on the Enerplus deal this week. Pays 5.5%. Ticker today:

SNOW today: 

Restaurant jargon:

• categories / most affected
  
• QSR / QSR: fast service / quick service restaurants. McDonald's. Domino's. Fifth quintile.
  
• CDR / CSDR: casual dining / casual sit-down restaurants.  Fourth and to some extent third quintile, moving into lower middle class.
  
• questions, what category?
  
• Cava? Probably the second group, CDR.
• Wingstop? Probably somewhere in between QSR and CDR.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.19.

Active rigs: 34.

Two new permits, #40788 and #40789,

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Arnegard (McKenzie) and Bonetrail (Williams)
• Comments:
• Oasis has a permit for a Bitterroot well, lot 2, section 30-150-100,
• to be sited 2020 FNL and 634 FWL;
• Oasis also has a permit for a Merlin well, SWSE 15-156-102, 
• to be sited 421 FSL and 2575 FEL

Seven permits renewed:

• BR: seven Sequoiafill permits, Hawekeye oil field, McKenzic County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39753, 803, Slawson, Armada Federal 3-14-18H, Mountrail County
• 40188, 899, Whiting, Tri D Ranch 5696 13-18 2BX, Williams County

Gasoline Demand, Chinese Carbon Emissions -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47973WTI.

When I get caught up, I'm going to touch on two subjects: EVs and China's carbon emissions.

Gasoline demand: overall gasoline demand is well below historical norms. What's going on? Some of my readers tell me it's due to EV penetration. LOL. Decreased gasoline demand in the US has almost nothing to do with EV penetration. So what's the real reason. CAFE standards that have been in place for decades are starting to make a difference. How old is the average car in the US? 

Yeah, that old.  

Why does it matter?

With or without CAFE standards, the data:

1970 - 2000, from 12 to 17 mpg (I don't know how they got the 29% number):

2024, to 28 mpg, from 20 to 28, 1.4 x 20 = 28. Does that mean a 40% increase? 8/20 = 40 percent.

Hybrids: marginal effect at best.

Going forward:

China carbon emissions: Bloomberg is now suggesting that China has "won the carbon war." I'll talk about this later.

"AI Chips" -- Apple Silicon -- Where Does It All Fit? May 28, 2024

Locator: 47972TECH.

In the "chip" sector, what is most important to me now is where Apple fits in with regard to "chips" and data centers.

So, the first question, what is meant by "AI chips"?

Link here for answer. From 2020. Great, great article. Full article will be archived for future reference.

AI chips include graphics processing units (GPUs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) that are specialized for AI. General-purpose chips like central processing units (CPUs) can also be used for some simpler AI tasks, but CPUs are becoming less and less useful as AI advances. (Section V(A).)

Like general-purpose CPUs, AI chips gain speed and efficiency (that is, they are able to complete more computations per unit of energy consumed) by incorporating huge numbers of smaller and smaller transistors, which run faster and consume less energy than larger transistors. But unlike CPUs, AI chips also have other, AI-optimized design features. These features dramatically accelerate the identical, predictable, independent calculations required by AI algorithms. They include executing a large number of calculations in parallel rather than sequentially, as in CPUs; calculating numbers with low precision in a way that successfully implements AI algorithms but reduces the number of transistors needed for the same calculation; speeding up memory access by, for example, storing an entire AI algorithm in a single AI chip; and using programming languages built specifically to efficiently translate AI computer code for execution on an AI chip. (Section V and Appendix B.)

Different types of AI chips are useful for different tasks. GPUs are most often used for initially developing and refining AI algorithms; this process is known as “training.” FPGAs are mostly used to apply trained AI algorithms to real-world data inputs; this is often called “inference.” ASICs can be designed for either training or inference. (Section V(A).)

So, that's a start. 

Tech is tracked here.  

Wiki's page on transistor count is the next most important page.

On that wiki page, the most important two tables are: GPUs and FPGA chips.

As an Apple investor, I want to see Apple in the GPU arena. And maybe to some extent, FPGA. 

Right now:

• CPUs: owned by Apple silicon.
• GPUs: owned by Nvidia. AMD a distant second.
• FGPA: Xilinx (AMD bought Xilinx years ago).

The next big question: can the revolutionary Apple M4 be considered a GPU? Here we go:

WSJ, May 6, 2024: Apple is developing AI chips for data centers, seeking edge in arms race. 

Let's see if we've learned anything -- what does Aaron Tilley and Yang Jie in that WSJ artile have to say? 

Over the past decade, Apple has emerged as a leading player designing chips for iPhones, iPads, Apple Watch and Mac computers. The server project, which is internally code-named Project ACDC—for Apple Chips in Data Center—will bring this talent to bear for the company’s servers, according to people familiar with the matter.

Project ACDC has been in the works for several years and it is uncertain when the new chip will be unveiled, if ever. Apple has promised many new AI products and announcements at its Worldwide Developer Conference in June.

An Apple spokesman declined to comment.

Apple has been closely working with its chip-making partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to design and initiate production of such chips, yet it remains uncertain whether they have yielded a definitive result, some of the people said.For Apple’s server chip, the component will likely be focused on running AI models—what is known as inference—rather than on training AI models, where chip maker Nvidia will likely continue to dominate, according to some of the people.

Not at all helpful.

Tim Cook needs to be very clear, very specific what he means by AI, generative AI, "AI chips," CPUs vs GPUs, Apple Silicon, and how the brand new, incredible Apple Silicon M4 chip fits in. I'm not holding my breath.

All for now, much more to explore

Tennessee: Joining Atlanta, DFW, Portland, Northern Virginia? Hyperscalers -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47971TECH.

Unsourced comment on CNBC earlier this morning: Elon Musk, xAI, Tennessee. This is a story to follow. Some links that may be interesting to follow for the next couple of years:

• Atlanta, Portland, Musk, January 26, 2024: again, Portland and Atlanta are big players.
• Gallatin / Nashville, July 8, 2020:

• A tech giant whose name is yet to be revealed is expected to announce construction of a hyperscale data center in Gallatin, Tennessee, a town of 40,000 located 30 miles northeast of Nashville. The giant behind “Project Woolhawk” is widely expected to be Facebook.

********************************
Data Centers

Northern Virginia and Portland, then DFW and Atlanta, Georgia.

From an earlier post:

Georgia and fossil fuel necessary to power data centers. Link here.

And here.

Link here. A most interesting graphic:

****************************
Data Centers / Hyperscalers

First story:

• xAI: one-million-square-foot AI center in Tennessee

• worldwide:

• US:

 

Apple iPhones -- Apple Is Back -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47970AAPL.

Link here.

Apple stock was trading 2.4% higher at the time of writing. 

The upside comes after AAPL witnessed a significant rebound in China, with iPhone shipments jumping 52% year-over-year in April, according to Bloomberg. This marks two consecutive months of growth after a period of decline, which reflects that the iPhone demand in China is gaining momentum. 

Furthermore, data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology revealed that other foreign smartphone brands in China shipped a total of 3.49 million units in April, reflecting a 51.7% year-over-year increase. Apple is said to be the dominant player in this category.

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

The Hyperscalers -- A Deep Dive -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47969TECH.

This is what caught my interest: there is talk of a proposed data center in Wyoming that will be powered by small, modular nuclear reactors. Think about that. If accurate -- think how big that data center is likely to be that it requires nuclear energy. Backed by three titans, including Bill Gates. 

Location: near Cheyenne, Wyoming. Take a look at the map, and you will understand why this location. 

Links only for now:

• Cheyenne, Wyoming, 945-acre data center,
• 800,000 square feet of data centers (yes, plural) on a 945-acre plot
• the City of Cheyenne annexed 1,283 acres of land between Clear Creek Parkway and South Greeley Highway for the development of the park earlier this year.
• not much known about company behind this; partnered with company specializing in modular nuclear power units
• the company behind Goat Systems is unclear – the company is registered through services firm Corporation Service Company (CSC) – but is likely either a hyperscale operator or a developer serving the hyperscalers.
• hyperscalers:
• wiki:
• RedHat:
• digital reality:
• Nvidia "corners" all four major cloud hyperscalers with Blackwell "superchip."

Tech tracked here.

Transistor count, perhaps the most important page for novice investors in tech.

Reminder:

• CPUs
• GPUs
• NPUs
• FPGAs
• memory: RAM
• memory: flash
• memory: ROM

But right now, the emphasis on GPUs, a lot packed into this table, spend some time on it:

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

****************************
Data Centers / Hyperscalers

First story:

• xAI: one-million-square-foot AI center in Tennessee

• worldwide:

• US:

First On CNBC -- On The Fly -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47968INV.

Nvidia (NVDA) is massive, link here. NVDA is up 30% this month. Growth at ~ 260% y/y; share price up ~ 150%; multiple dropping y/y. Analyst on CNBC suggests AVGO: much more diversified; deep into AI.

Carl Q at 8:48 a.m. CDT: biggest drag on the Dow right now .... INTC. That was a reply to Cramer's mumbling about the huge mistake INTC made [a while back ... a few years in the making ... discussed at length in the blog over the past year or so....). 

• Dow 30 components and ticker prices. INTC now in the green; no longer a drag on the DOW today. After a drop at the open, INTC is now in the green (9:01 a.m. CDT.

For the archives: wow, wow, wow -- we had a huge thunderstorm during the night. Began around midnight, peaked about 4:00 a.m., continues, and will have another major storm cell later this morning.

CNBC, first hour with Cramer:

At the open:

• equity markets:
• Dow: -120
  
• S&P 500: +7
  
• NASDAQ: +70
  
• oil: $79.24
• oil
  
• ONEOK: up 0.8%; up 65 cents; trading at $81.50
  
• CHRD: up $1.33.
  
• CVX: up 69 cents;
  
• tech:
• NVDA: up $44; up 4%; trading at $1,108;
  
• AMD: up $1.90; up 1%; trading at $168;
  
• AVGO: up $6; up 0.4%; trading at $1,413;
  
• QCOM: up $3; up 1.5%; trading at $213;
  
• TSM: down 0.7% down $1.13; trading at $159;
  
• in its own class:
• AAPL: up 1%; up $2.00; trading at $192;
• AAPL dropping a big in later trading (9:01 a.m. CDT) --AAPL may not be able to hold its opening jump in price.
  

First story:

• xAI: one-million-square-foot AI center in Tennessee

• worldwide:

• US:

Carl Q and Cramer almost giddy about the AI - tech rally

Fed rates: discontinue the timeline, for heaven's sake -- finally, they're reading the blog, LOL.

Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

There's A Lot More Happening In The Bakken Than You Might Think -- RBN Energy -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47967B.

I'm having difficulty thinking of a bigger Bakken story than the Chord-Enerplus merger. This deal is tracked at the sidebar at the right.

From last week: folks are misreading the reason for the doubling of the price being offered from 2022 to 2024.

RBN Energy: there's a lot more happening in the Bakken than you might think. Archived.

On the surface, the Bakken story in the mid-2020s may seem as boring as dirt. The boom times of 2009-14 and 2017-19 are ancient history. Crude oil production has been rangebound near 1.2 MMb/d — well below its peak five years ago. And that output has been getting gassier over time, creating natural gas and NGL takeaway constraints that have put a lid on oil production growth. But don’t buy into the view that the Bakken is yesterday’s news. Beneath the surface (sometimes literally), the U.S.’s second-largest crude oil production area is undergoing a major transformation that includes E&P consolidation, production (and producers) going private, the drilling of 3- and (soon) 4-mile laterals, novel efforts to eliminate flaring, and even a producer-led push for CO₂-based enhanced oil recovery (EOR). As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, these changes and others may well breathe new life into the Bakken and significantly improve the environmental profile of the hydrocarbons produced there. 

Original Post
February 21, 2024

Chord - Enerplus Merger PowerPoint.

Link here.

Timeline:

• February 9, 2024:

• Locator: 46774DEVON.
• Devon Energy offers to acquire Enerplus, including its Bakken assets -- NS Energy
• Reuters.
• Yahoo!Finance.

• 9:00 a.m., February 21, 2024: I added a large buy to my existing position of CHRD.

• 6:25 p.m. February 21, 2024: it's being reported that CHRD will merge with Enerplus.

• 6:26 p.m February 21, 2024: whoo-hoo! Opening a bottle of champagne.

• 6:27 p.m. February 21, 2024: two tickers --

Financials:

From Chord's website:

There's A Lot More Happening In The Bakken Than You Might Think -- RBN Energy; WTI Back Above $79 -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47966B.

Stagflation: with WTI back up above $79, certainly doesn't look like slow growth to me, any time soon.

In the news today:

• Apple iPhone sales surge in China
• China's drop in CO2 emissions; Bloomberg misreading the story
• EVS: liberals vs conservatives
• Chord to close on Enerplus this week; shareholders overwhelmingly approve
• hyperscalers: a deep dive
• but before we get to those stories, I'm going to have some waffles and spam. Whoo-hoo!

******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: up almost 2%; up $1.40; trading at $79.12.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024: 39 for the month; 103 for the quarter, 302 for the year
40283, conf, Eagle Operating, Wade 5-11,

Monday, May 27, 2024: 38 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 301 for the year
39382, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 3B MBH,

Sunday, May 26, 2024: 37 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 300 for the year
39577, conf, Prima Exploration, Elzy Lay 1H,
39568, conf, Prima Exploration, Elzy Lay 2H,

Saturday, May 25, 2024: 35 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 298 for the year
39381, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 3C UTFH,

RBN Energy: there's a lot more happening in the Bakken than you might think. Archived.

On the surface, the Bakken story in the mid-2020s may seem as boring as dirt. The boom times of 2009-14 and 2017-19 are ancient history. Crude oil production has been rangebound near 1.2 MMb/d — well below its peak five years ago. And that output has been getting gassier over time, creating natural gas and NGL takeaway constraints that have put a lid on oil production growth. But don’t buy into the view that the Bakken is yesterday’s news. Beneath the surface (sometimes literally), the U.S.’s second-largest crude oil production area is undergoing a major transformation that includes E&P consolidation, production (and producers) going private, the drilling of 3- and (soon) 4-mile laterals, novel efforts to eliminate flaring, and even a producer-led push for CO₂-based enhanced oil recovery (EOR). As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, these changes and others may well breathe new life into the Bakken and significantly improve the environmental profile of the hydrocarbons produced there. 

Busy, busy in the Bakken: we've only just begun. The WPX Mandaree pads in Spotted Horn. I could 16 active wells in this one location:

The earliest (?) well in this immediate area:

• 19603, 332, WPX, Mandaree 30-31H, Reunion Bay, t5/11; cum 615K 3/24; recent production; a stripper well trending toward 750K bbls crude oil, cumulative:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	780	797	2168	3014	2856	0
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	803	777	2278	2717	2521	48
BAKKEN	1-2024	23	330	335	1379	1502	1349	0
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	521	567	963	2634	2476	0
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	1061	1054	665	3606	3453	0
BAKKEN	10-2023	30	952	850	597	3606	3455	0
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	0	22	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	9	141	166	59	579	534	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	28	364	381	242	2445	2304	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	287	537	386	2878	2739	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	28	1369	1173	986	6417	6275	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	800	744	390	4741	4583	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	649	662	522	3524	3371	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	899	862	631	4407	4249	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	605	620	198	4212	4059	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	542	569	1052	3892	3739	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1053	1022	2584	7186	7030	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	879	859	513	3413	3260	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	436	453	125	1829	1120	577
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	952	975	290	6783	6639	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1068	1057	324	4936	4778	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	736	722	317	4838	4695	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1006	1000	337	7417	7259	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	945	944	344	5350	5192	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	808	862	438	4125	3972	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2078	2049	348	8604	4407	4039
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	928	956	206	4801	4648	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	995	1012	279	4668	4510	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1133	1075	297	4348	3996	194