Down And Dirty -- I'm All In -- June 30, 2022

If one reads Peter Zeihan, c. 2022, and at the same time one is following world events, it's time to panic.

I haven't watched CNBC in months. Tonight while looking for "streaming" sports, I spent 120 seconds or thereabouts on Jim Cramer.

I don't recall ever seeing Jim Cramer so pessimistic. What a doofus.

Worse, his interview with the VP of IBM. Talk about a depressing interview. IBM is begging for government help to jump-start the semiconductor industry. Say what? IBM begging for government help? LOL. You won't see TSM, AAPL, or NVDA doing that. In this environment, IBM needs help from the government? Oh, give me a break.

Cramer said he took his huge profit in CVX and sold "some" from his charitable trust. 

With two consecutive quarters of negative growth, most folks would say we are in a recession.

A lot of folks disagree.

I could(n't) care less. 

What would you prefer, a recession that lasts six months, or Turkish inflation of 20% that lasts three years?

No hurry. Take your time.

 Biden says high gasoline prices are not transitory. 

Cramer is afraid to go all in on oil. Why? Windfall profits tax.

 Yes, it may happen, but two things.

First, only Congress can legislate windfall profits tax. Not gonna happen.

Second, every Biden initiative vis a vis the price of oil is a misstep. Or deliberate.

A windfall profits tax: bullish for oil. Counterintutive. 

Oil companies, to minimize the impact of a windfall profits tax, will simply cut back on production.

But I digress. Good, bad, or indifferent, I remain fully invested. 

No market timing for me. 

Bottom line: I'm betting the farm. As they say. 

I'm fully invested. And staying fully invested. 

But ATT (T) paying almost 6%! Are you kidding me?

AAPL at $134 or thereabouts. Are you kidding me?

This Is The Bakken -- June 30, 2022

These wells have paid for themselves at the wellhead. Don't take that out of context. 

Two wells off confidential list today:

• 38178, drl/A,  Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-9, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 148K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	5-2022	29	21448	21444	9460	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2022	29	20229	20239	6960	30332	30241	52
SANISH	3-2022	31	26644	26688	9610	40989	39911	1028
SANISH	2-2022	28	34470	34442	18248	44007	42247	1702
SANISH	1-2022	31	41993	41899	20999	54680	36432	18183
SANISH	12-2021	2	2885	2855	1636	7966	7160	782

• 37144, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-4, Beaver Lodge, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 99K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	12723	12746	19433	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	11295	11250	15939	42383	41846	537
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	17588	17613	18523	51479	46425	5054
BAKKEN	2-2022	24	19538	19635	27006	45058	44340	718
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	37685	37453	52815	69452	66293	3159
BAKKEN	12-2021	13	74	72	14	2596	2594	2

Koda Resources With Two New Permits -- June 30, 2022

WTI: $105.90.

Active rigs: 44

Two new permits, #39062 - #39063, inclusive:

• Operator: Koda Resources
• Fields: Daneville (Divide); Fertile Valley (Divide)
• Comments: 
• Koda Resources has permits for two Bock wells, SESE 32-161-102; 
• to be sited between 409 FSL and 439 FSL and 375 FEL

Two wells off confidential list:

• 38178, conf,  Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-9,
• 37144, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-4,

Market Rambling -- This Is NOT An Investment Site -- Usual Disclaimer Applies -- June 30, 2022

ATT (T) maintained its dividend and is yielding over 5%, and doing fairly well in a "down" market. 

I have a reader who keeps talking about Disney as an investment. We are yet to see  DIS's low.

Perhaps.

But it seems folks are making this too difficult. 

Very different sectors and different businesses, but in the big scheme of things, DIS is a lot like T. 

Instead of obsessing about whether or not to buy DIS, simply park your money in T while deciding whether to buy DIS or not.

Park it in DIS and get 0% yield. Park it in T and get a 5%+ yield while waiting.

****************************

CLR

On another note, remember that Harold Hamm "tease" about taking the company private.

No news in several weeks.

I'll do the math later, but imagine how much free cash flow Harold Hamm must have if he is able to buy the rest of his company.

Now, think about all the other shale companies NOT going private and how much free cash flow they must have. 

Instead of taking their companies private, their boards are going to authorize increased dividends and share buybacks. 

 

******************************
Sailing School

End of day. Ninth day of sailing school.

Century Aluminum In Kentucky Shuts Down Due To High Energy Prices -- June 30, 2022

I'll be off the net in a few minutes for about two hours, but I will leave you with this, sent to me by a reader the other day.

This is in Hawesville, KY, USA, where energy prices are probably a third of what they are in Germany.

From Manufacturing Business Technology:

The Century Aluminum plant in Hawesville, Kentucky, is shutting down production due to rising energy costs.

In a statement, the company says the plant idling is the "direct result of skyrocketing energy costs," specifically blaming the Russian war in Ukraine for the dramatic increase.

The production stoppage will impact some 628 workers, who will be laid off at the second-largest employer in the area, according to the Messenger-Inquirer.

The company will close the smelter for nine to 12 months, beginning Monday, until energy prices return to normal levels. The company only gave employees about three days' notice, informing them of the closure last Wednesday. 

Is "recession" spelled with one "c" or two?

US Congress Sets Laws, Not Unelected Bureaucrats -- SCOTUS -- June 30, 2022

One assumes this is more far-reaching than this single ruling. 

The take-home message: US Congress sets law, not the bureaucracies. 

Link here. 

In a blow to the fight against climate change, the Supreme Court on Thursday limited how the nation’s main anti-air pollution law can be used to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

By a 6-3 vote, with conservatives in the majority, the court said that the Clean Air Act does not give the Environmental Protection Agency broad authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that contribute to global warming.

The court’s ruling could complicate the administration’s plans to combat climate change. Its proposal to regulate power plant emissions is expected by the end of the year.

President Joe Biden aims to cut the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of the decade and to have an emissions-free power sector by 2035. Power plants account for roughly 30% of carbon dioxide output.

The justices heard arguments in the case on the same day that a United Nations panel’s report warned that the effects of climate change are about to get much worse, likely making the world sicker, hungrier, poorer and more dangerous in the coming years.

The power plant case has a long and complicated history that begins with the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan. That plan would have required states to reduce emissions from the generation of electricity, mainly by shifting away from coal-fired plants.

EVs today, the market on the last day of the quarter:

• TSLA: down 3.3%; down $21; trading at $664
• RIVN: down 5.3%; down $1.38; trading at $24.92
• RIDE: down 6.7%; down 12 cents; trading at $1.62
• GOEV: down 6.2%; down 12 cents; trading at $1.90
• F: down 3.4%; down 39 cents; trading at $11.13
• GM: down 4.3%; down $1.43; trading at $32
• ELMS: of course, under bankruptcy protection
• PLUG: I haven't look at PLUG in months; down 3.2% trading; nears it 52-week low; trading at $16, down from its 52-week high of $46

*****************************
The Book Page

Link here.

Excerpted from Cosplay: A History by Andrew Liptak. Copyright © 2022 by Andrew Liptak. Available from Saga Press, a Division of Simon & Schuster, Inc.

**************************
Second To Last Day Of Sailing Camp

Corky stays home.

S&P Futures Falls 1.5% -- Nears Worst First Half Since 1970 -- So, We've Been Here Before? June 30, 2022

Walgreens: beats.

Gazprom:

• suspends dividend
• first time dividend not paid since 1998
• shares plunge 27%

US economy:

• May inflation rate: mixed note; link here.
• May, 2022, reading: 4.7% over last year
• forecast: "around 4.8%"
• monthly basis: up 0.3% month/month
• forecast: 0.4%, Dow Jones estimate
• headline inflation:
• rose 0.6%, month-over-month
• much faster than the 0.2% in the preceding month, April's month-over-month
• year-over-year inflation: 6.3%
• down slightly from March reading of 6.6%
• 6.6% is highest reading since January, 1982; so we've been here before?

SCOTUS:

• states' rights vs Native Americans
• reverses 2020 ruling
• states' rights strengthened
• narrow ruling; considered significant
• 5-4 ruling:
• 2020: RBG was in majority for Native Americans
• 2022: ACB in majority for Oklahoma ruling
• links everywhere, here's one.
• Gorsuch fumes. After all, this was settled law, wasn't it, set by SCOTUS just two years ago?
  

SCOTUS:

• one justice retires; one to be sworn in today

SCOTUS:

• set to issue its final two rulings

Putin's War:

• Russian abandons Snake Island: key for Ukraine wheat shipments
  

Maxwell:

• sentenced 20 years for sex trafficking teens to no one

North Korea:

• likely culprit behind $100 million crypto heist; link here;
• unless I missed, date of heist not reported

Japan:

• industrial output, May, 2022: drops 7.2% month/month
• forecast: a minus a 0.3%

China:

• will subsidize refiners if oil > $130, link here;
• if one reads Zeihan's c. 2022, this is not a bit surprising
• Saudi Arabia may raise August crude prices to Asia too near-record levels; links everywhere, here's one
• OPEC basket price;
  

Refiners:

• mid-June, 2022: Biden accuses refiners of holding back
• June 22, 2022: Biden's EIA delays weekly refinery report
• June 26 - 28, 2022: G-7 meeting where oil prices huge agenda item
  
• June 29, 2022: EIA reports refinery utilization after G-7 meeting ends
  
• refiners operating at record levels
• most crucial PADD 3 refinery utilization was an incredible, whopping 97.9%;
• link here.
• Biden administration on EIA refinery data: crickets
• now, on to Saudi Arabia

Texas pipeline:

• link here;
• brownfield expansion
• Permian Highway Pipeline
• to increase natural gas capacity by 550 MMcf/d
• Kinder Morgan-XOM
• target in-service date: November 1, 2023

***********************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $108.50

No wells coming off  confidential list.

RBN Energy: western Canada gas storage faces very low starting point for next winter. 

Canadian gas storage levels concluded the most recent heating season at multi-year lows, especially in the western half of the nation, which hit a 16-year low at the end of March. Though storage sites have been refilling at a steady rate so far this summer, storage in the west, a region vitally important for balancing the North American gas market during high winter demand, remains unusually low for this time of year. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the latest developments in Canadian natural gas storage and explain why storage levels in Western Canada may start the next heating season at critically low levels.

Apple MacBook Air -- Just In Time For College -- June 29, 2022

Apple will launch MacBook Air with M2 chip on July 15, 2022.  

Already on Apple home page.

And, yes, I'm ordering one. 

This one will be hard to get; will fly off the shelves; just in time for students starting / returning too college.

Without question, the MacBook Air, simply the best bang for the buck. Trust me on this. 

Know what I love about Apple MacBook Air? Two ports, MagSafe, and a headphone jack.

Minimalist. 

Actually, Apple should remove that headphone jack, also. Apple tried that once and received so much backlash from customers, they put it back in. No longer needed. 

USB 4: double-speed USB. That's all you need to know. 

From Apple's webpage:

MagSafe 3 charging port

3.5 mm headphone jack

Two Thunderbolt / USB 4 ports with support for:

• Charging
• DisplayPort
• Thunderbolt 3 (up to 40Gb/s)
• USB 4 (up to 40Gb/s)
• USB 3.1 Gen 2 (up to 10Gb/s)

USB 4? Here. Three main benefits:

• speed:
• same speed as Thunderbolt 3
• 40 Gbps maximum speed; achieved by using two-lane cables
• display:
• USB 4 can support 8K resolution
• 8K resolution up to 80 Gpbs
• compatible with some Thunderbolt 3 devices, such as Apple's new MacBook Air, M2

What's Wrong With This Graph? Wrong Answers Only -- June 29, 2022

Link here.

What's wrong with this graph. Wrong answers only.

General Mills Raises Its Dividend -- June 29, 2022

 General Mills: link here.

• raises dividend from 51 cents to 54 cents;
  
• EPS: $1.12, beats by a whopping eleven cents
• revenue: $4.89 billion; beats by $80 million
• I assume lots of reasons, but it certainly suggests company able to pass inflation costs onto the consumer

Saudi Arabia, Russia, And Egypt -- Big "Shout-Out" To Giovanni Staunovo -- June 29, 2022

I follow a handful of very select, very incredible energy analysts, a very select group. Even among them, there is a first among equals. Giovanni Staunovo. He provided the following. A huge "thank you." 

Link here.

After everything "we've"  been discussing on the blog for the past year or so, and now with the realization that "spare capacity" is a myth, and then, on top of that, how "trade routes" will change due to Putin's War, take some time and look at this graphic:

When I saw this, I about fell off my chair.

Why was (classical) Rome able to become and remain an "empire" for so long? One reason: access to wheat. And where did that wheat come from? Egypt. Rome went after Egypt for one reason: wheat to feed their military and their growing urban population.

Spend some time on that graphic; there's a lot there.

Family Pictures For The Archives -- June 29, 2022

Our younger daughter has an incredible crafts room with multiple sewing machines, including a long arm. 

Does a lot of quilting and has been teaching her two-year-old twins to quilt.

Pictures of Judah and Levi today. 

Judah is more "just get the job done." 

Levi studies the plan for quite some time before starting his project. 

Enerplus With Four New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed -- June 29, 2022

Wimbledon stunner:

• Harmony Tan, world ranking about 151, defeats Serena Williams in first round
• say what?

**************************
Back to the Bakken

NDIC GIS map still not available. Goal was to have map up by June 24, 2022. 

WTI: after hitting $112, fell back to $110 at the close.

• more and more talk of $200-oil
• Biden administration already in panic; talking about another 45-million-bbl release from the SPR;

Active rigs: 44

Four new permits, #39058 - #39061, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for four Olson wells in SWSW 34-147-97; 
• to be sited between 492 FSL and 529 FSL and between 424 FWL and 515 FWL

Seven permits renewed / reinstated:

• XTO (4): four Twin State Federal permits in McKenzie County
• Sinclair (3): three Lizzie Rae permits, also in McKenzie County

Temporarily abandoned:

• Oasis: eight wells -- four Helix wells, two Ruud wells, and two Helling Trust Federal wells, all in the prolific Mountrail County;
• Cobra: a JV-P SSU well in Divide County
• Citation Oil: a Tank well in McKenzie County

Inflation Watch -- June 29, 2022

EIA's weekly report posted. 

WTI drops a buck after report released. Tells me all I need to know.

****************************
Electricity Statement -- June 24, 2022

This is our total energy / utility bill. We only have electricity, no natural gas. 

*************************
Inflation Watch

Every Time I See Another Media Headline On Inflation, I Take Another Look At This Chart To See What I'm Missing -- June 29, 2022

First posted about a month ago:

Off The Net -- Taking Sophia To Sailing Class -- June 29, 2022

I'm driving a bit more than usual because I'm taking Sophia out to the lake each day for her sailing course.

Recent 2011 Honda Civic mileage:

Date - Odometer reading - gallons -- $/gal - total price -- miles driven -- mpg -- cents/mile:

14 Oct 21	120,815	8.15	2.90	23.62	241	29.59	0.10
9 Nov 21	121,109	9.40	3.16	29.72	294	31.28	0.10
15 Nov 21	121,312	6.11	3.05	18.62	203	33.25	0.09
3 Dec 21	121,581	8.21	3.00	24.63	269	32.76	0.09
January 7, 2022	121,906	9.98	2.85	28.43	325	32.57	0.09
March 26, 2022	122,088	6.42	3.68	23.62	182	28.34	0.13
June 8, 2022	122,263	6.75	4.60	31.06	175	25.91	0.18
June 21, 2022	122,435	6.20	4.68	28.99	172	27.76	0.17
June 29, 2022	122,670	7.61	4.44	33.77	235	30.89	0.14

Politics, link here:

Hopefully this quiets the tweets that keep showing up on my twitter feed pushed by twitter and I can't block them. 

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report --- June 29, 2022

Note: refiners in PADD 3 are operating at 97.9% of their operating capacity.

Note: Peter Zeihan's c. 2022 just hit #3 on Amazon's best seller list. I'm halfway through. Superb book. 

Note: US 1Q22 final GDP reading = minus 1.6%.

Brent back to >$120.

Back to the EIA: Most fascinating. 

Apparently most EIA products will still be delayed but the agency has released the weekly petroleum report.

While we waited for the report to be released, EV tickers:

• TSLA: down 3%; down $22; back to $675
• RIVN: down almost 4%; down $1.00; back to $26.
• RIDE: down almost 6%; down to $1.66; 
• GOEV: down 5% down below $2.00 again

What to watch? WTI. 

Prior to release: WTI at $113.70.

Thirty minutes after EIA report released: $112.70. Down a buck. Tells me all I needed to know.

Link here. 

The report, for week ending June 24, 2022:

• US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million bbls (and this is on top of that record-breaking SPR release). 
• US crude oil inventories stand at 415.6 million bbls, 13% below five-year average; irrelevant;
• US crude oil imports average 6.0 million bopd; four-week average, 6.3 million bbls, 5.1% less than year ago; yawn. 
• US refiners working at a whopping 95% -- this is the number most folks are watching;
• US gasoline supplied averaged 2.0% less than same period last year
• US distillate inventories down 7.4% from same period last year
• US jet fuel supplied was up 17.1% compared with same four-year period last year

It looks like refiners are focused on distillates over gasoline. Next time you drive by a service station, compare price of diesel with gasoline. Refiners are making more money on diesel than they're making on gasoline. 

There is no shortage of oil; there is no shortage of gasoline. Having said that, local gasoline outages have been reported.

Highly recommend: if traveling this weekend, don't let your vehicle's fuel tank get less than half full. 

Biggest Military Build-Up Since Reagan? One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- June 29, 2022

Re-posting: biggest build-up since Reagan! 

Geo-political: huge story; NATO getting huge boost

• Turkey: Sweden, Finland, fast-track into NATO; totally unexpected it would happen this fast
• more F-35s to UK -- I don't know full story yet, but this is fascinating; we can start here; much more to follow;
• Financial Times; expected paywall but able to access for some reason; look at this:
• US will establish PERMANENT HQ 5th Army Corps in Poland; huge deal for Poland.
  
• US will send 5,000 additional troops to Romania
• US will increase rotational deployments in the Baltic states
• two squadrons of US F-35 fighters will be sent to UK;
• both squadrons will likely go to same US air base; 
• probably RAF Lakenheath; possibly RAF Upper Heyford? RAF Mildenhall co-located with RAF Lakenheath? USAF bases in UK;
• a squadron? generally, about 20 a/c
  
• will increase number of US naval destroyers to Spain from four to six:
• overall, NATO will increase number of troops to high alert by seven-fold; from 40,000 to 300,000
• is this the biggest military announcement since the days of Reagan?

F-35: wiki. 

V Corps: wiki. 

OXY and Buffett:

• the other day I mentioned I lost the bubble on this subject.
• here's most recent update: Buffett keeps buying more OXY
• numbers to watch:
• $60 and $90
• some say Buffett won't buy entire company (OXY) because he won't pay $90 for it;
• pundits suggest Buffett feels share price won't go above $60
• Berkshire is Occidental's largest individual shareholder with ~153.5M shares worth more than $9B, based on OXY's Monday close at $58.90, with options to buy another 83.9M shares that would bring its stake to more than 25%.
• today, ticker OXY, to open at $61.71 and pre-market in the green

****************************

Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: holy mackerel! Up 1.59%; up $1.78; now trading at $113.50.

• please, please, please, Mr Biden -- don't change your travel plans
• travel to Saudi Arabia so you can hear from the horse's mouth, OPEC has very little spare capacity
• and, oh, by the way, aviation fuel demand is yet to take off

Active rigs: 44

Wednesday, June 29, 2022: 40 for the month, 178 for the quarter, 337 for the year 

• 38600, conf, Murex, Sheldon Mark 34-22H-A 2MB,

RBN Energy: E&Ps ride strong commodity price wave to record income and cash flow.

The oil and gas industry has historically been roiled by global economic and political crises, from the oil embargo in 1973 to the Great Recession of 2008 to the onset of the global pandemic in early 2020.  However, amid the economic and political turmoil from the war in the Ukraine, rampant inflation and supply chain disruptions, E&P companies in recent weeks reported strong results for the first quarter of 2022, riding the wave of rising commodity prices as record volumes of cash flowed into corporate coffers. Producers successfully absorbed service cost increases and resisted calls to abandon their profits-focused fiscal discipline to generate Q1 2022 pre-tax operating earnings and cash flows that were up 25% and 12%, respectively, from the two-decade-high results recorded in the last quarter of 2021. In today’s RBN blog, we detail the industry’s outstanding results and preview its performance for the rest of the year.

General Mills -- Beats On Top / Bottom Line -- And So Much More -- June 29, 2022

General Mills: link here.

• raises dividend from 51 cents to 54 cents;
  
• EPS: $1.12, beats by a whopping eleven cents
• revenue: $4.89 billion; beats by $80 million
• I assume lots of reasons, but it certainly suggests company able to pass inflation costs onto the consumer

Geo-political: huge story; NATO getting huge boost

• Turkey: Sweden, Finland, fast-track into NATO; totally unexpected it would happen this fast
• more F-35s to UK -- I don't know full story yet, but this is fascinating; we can start here; much more to follow;
• Financial Times; expected paywall but able to access for some reason; look at this:
• US will establish PERMANENT HQ 5th Army Corps in Poland;
• US will send 5,000 additional troops to Romania
• US will increase rotational deployments in the Baltic states
• two squadrons of US F-35 fighters will be sent to UK; both squadrons will likely go to same US air base; probably RAF Lakenheath; possibly RAF Upper Heyford? RAF Mildenhall co-located with RAF Lakenheath? USAF bases in UK;
• will increase number of US naval destroyers to Spain from four to six:
• overall, NATO will increase number of troops to high alert by seven-fold; from 40,000 to 300,000
• is this the biggest military announcement since the days of Reagan?

Oil: it's unanimous -- everyone now saying what we knew all along -- mideast / OPEC+ spare capacity was and is a myth; many, many links;

• Saudi shortfall at Bloomberg via twitter;
• Saudi Aramco, also over at Bloomberg via twitter;
• Russia -- part of OPEC+ -- production over at twitter;
• Shell (?) CEO said same thing: space capacity not as much as some expect / hope

EVs: not to say that these aren't great trading stocks, but US EV companies fell off the shelf yesterday;
perhaps more later;

• I don't think anyone knows what's going on Tesla any more;

LNG: this is simply incredible; the 2020s will be the decade for fossil fuel

• Europe looking at twenty -- repeat, twenty -- new LNG import terminals
• US ready now to supply; Canada slow off the starting blocks 

Expensive water:

• I have to do more research on this: Topo Chico
• seems to be huge item here in north Texas
• link here;

Chart of the day: google. Link here.

Small font: hope you can read --

Most interesting news item today:

• FOX has huge -- very long -- article on Mitch McConnell's memoir, "The Long Game."
• But the memoir came out in 2019 and now it's getting traction.
• I never, never, never read a political memoir.
• I will be ordering the memoir from Amazon later today. 

Okay, that's it. This post is done. Stick a fork in it.

One last thing. Just remember, I did not start this. A reader sent it to me. Did Trump just lose Fox's Bret Baier? Link here. More than ever, it would be great to hear Rush's "take" on this. Even the opposition in the House is not "pushing back." I assume they are watching the polls, media spin. Again, I did not start this. A reader sent this to me.

Matchmaker -- June 28, 2022

Link here.

The question: what did Turkey get in return?

XOM Sells Canadian XTO Assets -- June 28, 2022

Whitecap increases dividend by 22%. 

Link here.  

Here's the press release:

• target: XTO Energy Canada
• deal: total cash deal, $1.9 billion and assumption of working capital
• net purchase price: $1.7 billion
• 32,000 boepd
• = $53,000 / boepd flowing (high end)
• Duvernay and Montney formations in Northwest Alberta
• 639,000 net acres
• = $2,660 / acre
• 20 years of tier one drilling locations
• more at the link
• Montney tracked at the sidebar at the right;
• Duvernay tracked at the sidebar at the right.

Alberta, link here:

How Many Transistors On A Chip -- The Wiki Chart Has Been Updated -- June 28, 2022

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Rambling Before I Join Sophia In The Pool -- June 28, 2022

This morning, on the radio, while driving out to the lake, the weather forecast for today: "cloudy, cool and 93°.

I couldn't be in a better mood:

• perfect television and streaming.
• I love TCM; it seems to keep getting better
• Hulu is awesome
• sports? dead zone right now
• books:
• one book a week
• Zeihan's, c. 2022, a must-read for anyone following the oil sector, geo-politics
• easy reading; lots of cocktail chatter
• I bet it's mandatory reading at US Naval academy and US Navy senior officer schools
• magazines
• just subscribed to Science, $79 / year
• will re-subscribe to The New Yorker as a trial for 26 weeks; $26
• curious to see how they report the current SCOTUS decisions; should be fun
• music
• YouTube keeps getting better and better
• Lana Del Rey catalogue: if just one "catalogue" on a desert island, this would be it
• politics, yes politics
• SCOTUS: back to strict interpretation of the constitution
• NYT: Chief Justice Roberts has lost his court
• up and coming Amy could be next chief justice if Roberts not careful; or retires;
• speaking of which: wow, these justices are young; they're not going anywhere for a long time; exception: Breyer has announced retirement
• investing
• be fearful when others are greedy
• be greedy when others are fearful
• watch Buffett; he keeps accumulating more OXY
• and I don't think OXY is even among the best for young investors

End-Of-Day Report -- June 28, 2022

First things first, API's Tuesday report -- large crude oil draw --

• a draw of almost 4 million bbls this past week
• analysts forecast a draw of 110,000 bbls
• remember: this draw comes at same time as huge SPR release
• if confirmed by EIA tomorrow, "Katie, bar the door."
• of course, the week before, a build of 5.6 million bbls suggesting a lot of issues with data;
• gasoline
• previous week: a build of 1.2 million bbls
• most recent week: a build of 2.9 million bbls
• and price of gasoline is still at $5
• crack spread at refineries said to be $50 to $60 / bbl
• most interesting data point to watch for tomorrow, EIA's report: 
• refining operating capacity; and,
• jet fuel supplied

Spare capacity: lots of folks are talking about (lack of) spare capacity in the Mideast. I started talking about this at least as far back as 2013, and I remember oil drum talking about it:

• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2013/08/tuesday-morning-links-views-and-news-in.html
• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2013/04/figure-seven-at-todays-oil-drum-worth.html
• https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2019/09/peak-oil-for-saudi-april-7-2013-re.html

The anti-ARKK? Link here. At the link, a short audio, quite remarkable:

Winter in Australia, link here:

Buffett and OXY: I've completely lost the bubble on Buffett and OXY. I'll sort it out later. Link here:

Sempra over at SeekingAlpha, link here.

Grids:

• Texas grid easily held today.
• both ISO-NE and ISO-NY expensive; ISO-NY particularly on Long Island 

The madam: 20 years in prison

• on suicide watch

************************************

Back to the Bakken

GIS map server: still not "up."

WTI: up 2% today; up $2.19; trading at $111.80. 

Active rigs: 45.

One new permit, #39056:

• Operator: Lime Rock Resources
• Fields: North Fork (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Lime Rocks Resources has a permit for another Yellowstone well, lot 3, section 1-149-97; 
• to be sited 452 FNL and 2371 FWL

Three permits renewed / reinstated:

• Whiting: a Roggenbuck permit, a Larson permit, and, a Kessel permit, Mountrail, Williams, and Stark counties, respectively