Retail Gasoline On East Coast 6 Cents Lower Than National Average -- Colonial Gasoline Pipeline Back On-Line After Spill / Interruption - November 8, 2016

All that anxiety about the Colonial Pipeline gasoline spill and interruption? Never mind:

Gasoline is expected to reach as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina within a day of Line 1's restart. Gasoline shipments on Colonial's system are expected to reach as far north as Baltimore, Maryland, by Tuesday and to reach their northern terminus in Linden, New Jersey, near New York Harbor, by Wednesday.

EIA's weekly retail price for regular gasoline for the Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) was $2.17/g as of Monday, November 7, virtually unchanged from the previous week, and 6 cents/g below the national average. -- EIA

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The Tesla Page

We drove through Prum, Germany, many times when we were stationed at Bitburg Air Base many decades ago. Sleepy little town. I'm not sure why we visited Prum except that we had friends in the area. Link here.

In the midst of seeking investor approval for a merger with SolarCity Corp., Tesla made a surprise announcement that it’s acquiring a small German engineering firm to help automate and accelerate production at its factories.

The carmaker led by tech industrialist Elon Musk said in a blog post today that it plans to buy Grohmann Engineering, based in Prüm, Germany, and rename it Tesla Grohmann Automation.

The firm, led by founder Klaus Grohmann, specializes in highly automated manufacturing techniques and will help Tesla fulfill Musk’s goal of designing the “machine that builds the machine,” his vision of advanced vehicle production that’s a step change from current conventions.

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The Apple Page

Ireland will formally appeal that $14 billion Apple tax ruling this week. Link here.

Apple previously said it is "confident" the ruling "will be overturned" by European courts, but noted the process is "likely to take several years."

Apple said it has "provisioned several billion dollars for the U.S. for payment," but it does not expect any near-term impact on its financial results.

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The Atmospheric CO2 Page

Link here. Not much movement in the big scheme of things. Fortunately.

• October, 2016: 401.57 (an increase of 0.8% yoy FWIW). 
• September, 2016: 401.01
• August, 2016: 402.24
• July, 2016: 404.39
• May, 2016: 407.70
• April, 2016: 407.57
• March, 2016: 404.83
• February, 2016:  404.16
• January, 2016: 402.52 
• October, 2015: 398.29

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Missing Persons Page

Whatever happened to Jon Gruber?


Whatever happened to Randolph Scott?

Whatever happened to Randolph Scott, Statler Bros

Update On Natural Gas Pipelines To New England -- RBN Energy; Trump With 10-Point Lead Among Those Who Say They Have Definitely Decided -- November 3, 2016

Gotta love them Norwegians: nearly 15,000 Norwegians apply to hunt 47 wolves in controversial culling that will slash population by 70% - VRT -- from "Breaking News." #WolvesLivesMatter; and, the movie, "No Country For Old Wolves."

Poll: I've always wondered if Trump might actually go over 50%. When I saw the USC-Los Angeles Times poll yesterday, I thought it might be possible. I haven't followed the Rasmussen poll very closely so I don't know if this has happened before, but Rasmussen is reporting that Trump is polling 50%+ among those who say they have definitely decided. In the "overall" poll, Trump leads Hillary, 45% - 42%. But look at this:

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent.

Russia's Northern Fleet: it appears the fleet is loitering just east of Crete. Its position has not changed much in the past 24 hours -- again, just off-shore from Crete suggesting there may be some re-supply activity. 

ObamaCare: as if it's not bad enough, another insurer has said it will leave ObamaCare if results don't improve. Anthem says it may exit ObamaCare. 

Health insurer Anthem Inc., which has so far stuck with the Obamacare markets as rivals pulled back, said it may retreat in 2018 if its financial results under the program don’t improve next year.

Anthem’s comments up the stakes for the Obama administration as the enrollment season for 2017 Affordable Care Act plans begins, with consumers already facing fewer choices and higher premiums in many markets.

Earlier this year, in Forbes: Anthem Gains Obamacare Customers And Sees Profits, Expansion Ahead.

Anthem’s first quarter earnings were better than expected as the company welcomed 1 million new customers across its businesses since the end of last year, including 184,000 who signed up for coverage on public exchanges under the Affordable Care Act.

In contrast to UnitedHealth Group, which is scaling back to a handful of public exchanges to sell individual policies, Anthem ANTM sees the so-called Obamacare business as a growth opportunity. Anthem, which sells policies under the Blue Cross and Blue Shield brand in 14 states, expects to remain in those markets next year with the potential for expansion should its merger with Cigna be approved. [Earlier this year, BC/BS pulled out of Arizona, ground zero for ObamaCare.]

“I think a sustainable model can be built,” Anthem chairman Joe Swedish said of public exchanges in an hour-long conference call this morning with analysts. “This remains a dynamic marketplace. Over time, we do believe we are well positioned for sustained growth.”

So what happened between April, 2016, and November, 2016?

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	11/3/2016	11/03/2015	11/03/2014	11/03/2013	11/03/2012
Active Rigs	35	69	186	181	188

RBN Energy: New England keeps lid on new natural gas access.

Natural gas utilities and power generators in southern New England will have access to additional gas supplies this winter as Spectra Energy brings its 342-MMcf/d Algonquin Incremental Market (AIM) project into service. But Kinder Morgan’s planned 72-MMcf/d Connecticut Expansion has been set back a year (to November 2017) due to permitting delays and, more important, a multi-state effort to enable electric distribution utilities (EDUs) to contract for gas pipeline capacity for generators appears to have died, and with it prospects for at least one major project.

Is New England destined to remain gas-supply constrained for years to come?  Today we consider recent developments regarding gas supply in the northeastern corner of the U.S., and what they may mean for Marcellus/Utica producers.

Saudi Aramco: McDermott adds a new office, 300 additional workers, increasing its engineering capacity in Saudi Arabia. Data points:

• In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) -- established by Saudi Aramco to support increased levels of localization inside the kingdom
• McDermott added three new projects for Saudi Aramco, 2Q16
• Saudi Aramco still on track for IPO in 2018

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The Trainwreck

First it was The Wall Street Journal, then The Washington Post, and now CBS: "customers" shocked by high ObamaCare 2017 premiums.

GOP needs to run, not walk, away from this debacle. By March, 2017, ObamaCare will be dead. Its only cheerleader will most likely be out of office.

Takeaway For ObamaCare According to Washington Post -- Shop Around (Note: Only One Insurer In Most Of Arizona) -- November 1, 2016

From The Washington Post:

Monthly insurance premiums for popular plans on HealthCare.gov are rising by 25 percent on average next year, according to government data. But the increases will be more dramatic in certain parts of the country, the numbers show.
Take somebody living in Phoenix, where the cost of the premium for a benchmark plan is growing by a whopping 145 percent to $507 a month in 2017 when compared to this year, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which tracks how premiums are changing in some major cities.
In Birmingham, Ala., health care premiums for a similar plan are climbing by 71 percent next year to $492 a month. And in Oklahoma City they are growing by 67 percent.

Premium rate rise in major cities in these states:

• Arizona: 145%, to $507/person -- $2,000 for a family of four; with high deductible; high co-pay
• Alabama: 71%, to $492 / person -- ditto
• Oklahoma: 67% 

Personally, I don't see a lot of difference between $507 and $492, but then again, maybe that's just me.

Premium rates will generally be greater in rural areas than in major urban areas according to the linked article.

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Movie Review

IDMB movie review of Leonardo Di Caprio's global warming movie -- hoping to win a Nobel Peace Prize, no doubt:

Basically DeCaprio was told by Al Gore (who has made a hundred millions of dollars by preaching global warming after he retired from political life, gained a bunch of weight and had nothing to do) that anthropological global warming is real, and from that point onward DeCaprio was convinced. LOL!

Then DeCaprio presents the ole “97% of scientists” lie that has traveled around the world. In reality 66% of scientists have no opinion about AGW — Those opinions were conveniently thrown out of the messaged John Cook study. Then DeCaprio presents cherry picked anecdotal evidence, without ever questioning whether it’s a case of Texas Sharpshooting. Why didn’t he present the Vostok Station / Greenland ice core data to put the last 100 years IN PERSPECTIVE versus the last 5,000 years, 11,000 years and 420,000 years?

And if he’s such a big fan of anecdotal evidence over temperature data then why didn’t he mention that Greenland used to be green? That 20,000 years ago New York was covered by a mile thick glacier? Why didn’t DeCaprio interview Patrick Moore, the co-founder of Greenpeace, who is not part of “Big Oil” and doesn’t buy into AGW?

Because DeCaprio suffers from confirmation bias. The rest of this propaganda piece (I mean movie) continues under the ASSUMPTION that humans are causing the planet to warm and we all need to agree to tax ourselves more. No thanks.

The movie, by the way, bombed. 

Trick Or Treat: And You Thought $600 EpiPens Were Expensive: Folks In Arizona Haven't Seen The End Yet -- But It's On Their Radar Scope -- October 31, 2016

The ObamaCare TrainWreck, aka The Affordable (LOL) Care Act was recognized from the beginning the debacle it would become. Its chief advocate even admitted later it was a "trainwreck," coined the word, and retired from the Senate.

Over the years, the right-wing as defined by the left-wing led the charge in warning Americans of the debacle, aka trainwreck. I've linked many of those stories, and was one of the first ad-free blogs to explain how the three-legged stool called ObamaCare was configured. I now have a separate page to track the ObamaCare tipping point -- when I remember to update it. For the most part, the whole story now bores me. As does wind energy.

For the past few months or so, I've pretty much quit linking ObamaCare stories from "marginal" sources; the story has been told and only those living under the Geico Rock remain unaware of it.

But then even I am surprised when really, really quality business magazines and newspapers come up with a full-page story on how really bad ObamaCare is.

Today I was surprised again. It was a link at the Drudge Report. I assumed it was a link to an alt-right or a right-wing marginal news outlet. Nope. The Wall Street Journal:

Inside the Affordable Care Act’s Arizona Meltdown.

Nearly every county in the state now has only one insurer selling plans through the health-care law’s exchange, and premiums are soaring.

The Obama administration has said those Americans with a "modest" annual salary of $25,000 will be offered health insurance at subsidized (not free) rates (with high deductibles and high co-pays. 

I'll read the story later. Halloween trick-or-treating is about to begin.

Be careful out there. And now clown costumes. 

Seventeen Bakken Permits Renewed In North Dakota; PDVSA Could Default As Early As Next Week -- My Hunch: One Big Bluff; Update On The ObamaCare Trainwreck -- October 18, 2016

Active rigs:

	10/18/2016	10/18/2015	10/18/2014	10/18/2013	10/18/2012
Active Rigs	32	67	190	184	186

No wells coming off confidential list Wednesday.

Three new permits:

• Operator: Oasis
• Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
• Comments: permits for a 3-well pad, Patsy, section 17-151-98 

Seventeen (17) permits renewed:

• CLR (11): three Elveida permits and three Bliss permits, all in Divide County; three Cuskelly permits in Dunn Count; two Boulder Federal permits in McKenzie County
• Whiting (2): two niemitalo permits in Mountrail County
• QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
• Petro-Hunt: one Hoiby permit in Mountrail County
• EOG: one  West Clark permit in McKenzie County

No DUCs reported as being completed. 

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The 2017 Trainwreck

WSJ reports here:

Finalized rates for big health insurance plans around the country show the magnitude of the challenge facing the Obama administration as it seeks to stabilize the insurance market under the Affordable Care Act in its remaining weeks in office.

Market leaders that are continuing to sell coverage through HealthCare.gov or a state equivalent have been granted average premium increases of 30% or more in Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Kansas, Mississippi and Texas, according to information published by state regulators and on a federal site designed to highlight rate increases of 10% or more.

In states including Arizona, Illinois, Montana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, the approved rate increases for the market leader top 50%.

In New Mexico, the Blue Cross Blue Shield plan agreed to resume selling plans through the online exchanges after sitting out last year, but has been allowed to increase rates 93% on their 2015 level.

Dominant insurers in Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland and Oregon have been allowed to raise premiums by 20% or more, and rate increases from similarly situated carriers in Colorado, Florida and Idaho are brushing up against that threshold.

Does anyone even care any more? At least you can keep your insurance plan if you like it.

HillaryCare will solve problem overnight: Federal government will be payer of last resort for those unable to find "affordable" rates. By executive order.

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Tic, Tic, Tic: Venezuela's Giant Oil Company Could Fail Next Week

Link here.  Probably a bluff. The company wants its debt repayment schedule to be delayed three .... years. One would think that if PDVSA defaults, the government default won't be far behind.

Sway, Dean Martin

**********************

Connecting The Dots -- Or Note

I'm sure I'm completely wrong on this one, but it's kind of fun. One of my favorite movies is Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. One of the supporting characters is Toby Esterhase, "a self-serving Hungarian refugee hungry for promotion." There are a number of "interpretations" for this particular name.

Today, while reading something inconsequential, I came across the "Dreyfus Affair" -- which I finally understand after all these years -- and then discovered this name: Ferdinand Walsin Esterhazy, "an officer in the French Army from 1870 to 1898. He gained notoriety as a spy for the German Empire and the actual perpetrator of the act of treason of which Captain Alfred Dreyfus was wrongfully accused and convicted in 1894 (see Dreyfus affair)."

The names are too similar to be completely coincidental. But perhaps they are. 

And Why Is This Noteworthy? Doesn't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- October 14, 2016

On July 18, 2016, I posted the #1 "image" journalists are watching for every five minutes.

Today we have the rotating beacon over at The Drudge Report. Doesn't amount to a hill of beans, but it is what is is.

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ObamaCare

It is interesting that now that President Obama has less than one hundred days remaining in office, his mouthpieces are abandoning him. I would not have posted this -- it's another "dog bites man story" -- but the source is impeccable (and I use the word loosely), Bloomberg: one million Americans are losing their health care as insurers "walk away." 

A growing number of people in Obamacare are finding out their health insurance plans will disappear from the program next year, forcing them to find new coverage even as options shrink and prices rise.

At least 1.4 million people in 32 states will lose the Obamacare plan they have now, according to state officials contacted by Bloomberg. That’s largely caused by Aetna Inc., UnitedHealth Group Inc. and some state or regional insurers quitting the law’s markets for individual coverage.

Sign-ups for Obamacare coverage begin next month. Fallout from the quitting insurers has emerged as the latest threat to the law, which is also a major focal point in the U.S. presidential election. While it’s not clear what all the consequences of the departing insurers will be, interviews with regulators and insurance customers suggest that plans will be fewer and more expensive, and may not include the same doctors and hospitals.
It may also mean that instead of growing in 2017, Obamacare could shrink.

As of March 31, the law covered 11.1 million people; an Oct. 13 S&P Global Ratings report predicted that enrollment next year will range from an 8 percent decline to a 4 percent gain.

Anyone still supporting ObamaCare is simply not paying attention or have a personal, vested interest, of which there are many. 

Not to worry: HillaryCare comes next. Hillary would be smart to stay as far away from US healthcare as possible. Let the Democratic leadership in the House and the Senate do the heavy lifting.

Latest Forecast, 3Q16: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016

Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — October 7, 2016, dynamic link:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5, 2016.

The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.28 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to –0.1 percent following this morning's employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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The Trainwreck
The Chicago Tribune's View

Back in 2010, Obamacare was like the Titanic heading off on her maiden voyage.

Critics warned people not to hop aboard, that disaster was inevitable. But the president, his allies in Congress and lots of big insurance companies assured everyone that, even though they couldn't see the blueprints, they had, in fact, designed an unsinkable ship of government-run health care.

Now, billions of dollars and 17 failed co-ops later (actually 18, now, from an original 23), the captain and crew of USS Obamacare are demanding that everyone stay below-deck and continue bailing out their sinking ship and the insurance companies taking on more and more red ink in Obamacare exchanges.

****************************

New Jersey To Increase State Tax On Gasoline

Update

Later, 6:14 p.m. Central Time: there's a lot more to this bill than simply an increase in oil prices. What little I know of it suggests this is a very, very good bill. It will raise $32 billion for highway infrastructure for the state of New Jersey over the course of 8 years, and half of that will come from the US government on a 1-for-1 matching grant. That is huge.

In addition, it eliminates New Jersey's "death tax." Right now, New Jersey has an estate tax that kicks in at a measly $625,000. That "death tax" is eliminated in this bill.

Finally, let's see what this costs an average commuter in New Jersey:

• annual mileage: 20,000 miles
• average mpg: 30 mpg
• gallons of gasoline/year: 750 gallons (rounded up generously)
• additional cost in gasoline tax: $0.23 x 750 = $175/year or $3.50/week -- about the cost of a Starbucks coffee one day each week on the commute 

I don't have a dog in this fight, but it seems any whining over this increased gasoline tax is ill-placed, considering that it simply brings New Jersey in line with other states' gasoline tax. 

Original Post

 

"Hikes it 23 cents." 

From Tax Foundation, July, 2015, state gasoline tax rates among the Central Atlantic States, New Jersey was the lowest:

• Massachusetts: 26.5 cents
• Rhode Island: 34 cents
• Connecticut: 40.86 cents
• New Jersey: 14.5 cents
• Delaware: 23 cents
• Maryland: 32.1 cents
• DC: 23.5 cents

New Jersey had the 49th lowest gasoline tax nationwide.

• Alaska, at 12.25 cents had the lowest state tax among all US states.
• Pennsylvania, at 51.6 cents was the highest. 

Another Dismal Jobs Report, Though Bloomberg Spins It Again -- Remember The Magic Numbers; Unemployment Ticks Up -- October 7, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: this was announced last week (October 6) but I missed it; it must have really been buried. 

The number of announced layoffs by U.S.-based companies rose in September to the highest level in two months.

Employers announced plans to cut 44,324 jobs last month, a 38 percent increase from August, when total job cuts of 32,2188 fell to lowest total since May.

September's was the highest monthly total since July, when 45,346 layoffs were announced.

Despite the monthly rise, September's total was 25 percent below the announced job cuts a year ago.

The biggest job cutter last month was the education sector, rising by 363 percent to 8,671.

Fueling the cuts was the collapse of for-profit college ITT Technical Institute, which sustained 8,000 job losses.

Cuts in the computer industry in September totaled 4,152 jobs. The sector's year-to-date layoffs were second only to the energy sector, which announced 98,733 cuts for the nine-month period.

October 8, 2016: disappointing 156,000 jobs added in September -- USA Today. Honest analysis unlike Bloomberg. To the best of my knowledge, USA Today is the only major news outlet that noted this is the consecutive month in which the jobs number was disappointing.

Payroll growth was disappointing for a second straight month in September as employers added 156,000 jobs, which raised questions about the health of an economy that was expected to perk up from a prolonged slump in the second half of the year.

Reported last month: the Goldilocks number. Jobs created in August much less than forecast; expectations had been for 180,000. In fact, only 151,000 jobs were added, well below the magic number of 200,000 necessary for economy growth. Unemployment unchanged from a revised upward revision one month earlier.

Later, 2:58 p.m. Central Time: stock market drops after jobs report -- New York Times. That was the headline. And then this lede:

Suppliers of basic materials are leading the stock market lower in afternoon trading Friday after a solid report on hiring in the U.S. last month. [I can't make this stuff up.]

Later, 11:48 a.m. Central Time: wow, who wrote this report "September jobs report close to "Goldilocks" number." Wow. Here it is -- the Fed's Fischer. Talk about spin. Worthless. I guess that's why the market is down 101 points -- the jobless number was so incredibly great. LOL. Folks give Matt Drudge a lot of grief, but it certainly seems he has not lost touch with middle class Americans.

Later, 10:14 a.m. Central Time: as predicted, the Bloomberg spin countered. "US created lower-than-expected 56,000 jobs in September." -- CNBC. Almost 100 million Americans not in workforce; unemployment ticks up to 5.0%. Obama spinmeisters thrilled with report -- within their "broad" range of expectations. Their phrase, not mine - at the video at the CNBC-linked story.

Later, 10:11 a.m. Central Time: I predicted this screenshot in the original post (see original post below). Screenshot from the most quoted internet news aggregator in the universe:

 

Original Post

 

The magic number: < 200,000 jobs = stagnant economy.

Analysts forecast / predicted: 172,000 increase.

The number: 167,000.

The number is well below what analysts forecast, and the forecast was way below what was needed to exceed 200,000. Anything below 200,000 = economic stagnation.

However Bloomberg spins it, it's not a good report. We'll see those stories later today. Meanwhile, buried in the second paragraph it was noted that US unemployment rate actually increased to 5%.

Bloomberg would suggest that the rate rose because more folks went back into the labor market, which, of course, was not true. Again, anything less than 200,000 = economic stagnation, and the forecast was below that, and the actual number was below the forecast.

Wow.

Okay, got that out of my system. Time to move on.

Oh, one more thing: slowest recovery since US records began: CNN.

For the archives: Jack Welch's debunked jobs conspiracy, four years later. The article failed to mention, that in fact, the US government did indeed falsify the numbers -- see below.

When you read that article on Jack Welch remember this post from January 22, 2015:

Over the two years that I had been posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington. 

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated. 

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	10/7/2016	10/07/2015	10/07/2014	10/07/2013	10/07/2012
Active Rigs	33	67	192	182	190

 
RBN Energy: update on DUCs.

The inventory of drilled-and-uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. Lower 48 grew by nearly 1,900 between the months just before oil prices and rig counts collapsed and early 2016—a 50% increase in a roughly two-year period, according to new DUCs data in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) September Drilling Productivity Report (DPR—See the DPR DUC report here.).

Since January’s peak of nearly 5,600 DUCs, producers have been working down the national inventory of DUCs, with the DPR showing the overall count closer to 5,000 as of August (2016) ––but that is still up more than 1,300 from the December EIA’s 2013 baseline. This incremental growth in the number of “dormant” wells is key to understanding and predicting how long production can remain supported or grow in a low-rig count environment. Moreover, there are regional differences in the DUCs inventory counts and trends that provide critical insights on how various market factors are impacting drilling activity. Today, we walk through the EIA DUCs data for each of the producing regions.

Starting from the top left graph in Figure 1—the Bakken—the EIA DUCs spreadsheet estimates the Bakken carried 569 DUCs in December 2013. The inventory since then has been somewhat volatile but generally grew by nearly 300 (53%) to a peak of 866 DUCs in April 2016. Since then, DUCs in the Bakken have come down somewhat from that peak to near 800, but are still over 200 higher than in December 2013.

NDIC reported the number of DUCs in North Dakota in excess of 900, well above the peak the EIA reported.

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SandRidge Emerges From Bankruptcy

Data links:

• Oklahoma-based company
• $525 million in total liquidity
• common stock once again listed on the NYSE
• new board of directors
• went into bankruptcy with more than $4 billion in debt
• about $3.7 billion of that debt has been eliminated
• CEO: James Bennett

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Fact-Checking The Fact-Checkers

Top story in Los Angeles Times today, the headline: "So, you think Obamacare is a disaster? Here's how California is proving you wrong."

I did not read the article, the headline was enough for me. Now let's check a few stories on ObamaCare in California -- from the Los Angeles Times and other sources -- fact-checking the fact-checkers.

California ObamaCare rates to rise 13% in 2017, more than three times the increase of last two years -- July 19, 2016

Rate shock: In California, Obamacare to increase individual health insurance premiums by 64 - 146% -- May 30, 2013.

Doctors boycotting California's Obacare exchanges -- December 6, 2013

So, when ObamaCare was first introduced in California, rates rose as much as 146% and physicians left the exchanges. [If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor -- not if your doctor leaves the exchange.]  And now, when the LA Times says California Obamacare is doing just fine, rates are rising three times the increase of last two years.

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The Market

Mid-day trading: the market must not have liked that dismal jobs report, nor the fact that it's being reported that President Obama increase US debt by $9 trillion during his short stay in the White House. The Dow 30 is down 101 points. NYSE:

• new highs: 48  
• new lows: 15

Tennessee -- Ground Zero For ObamaCare Implosion; The War-Time, Nobel Prize-Winning President -- October 6, 2016

Updates

October 12, 2016: wow, this is quite a story. Remember, Minnesota was the most visible among states jumping on the ObamaCare bandwagon. Governor Dayton loved ObamaCare. Now, not so much. Governor Dayton: Affordable Care is no longer affordable.  Geico Rock 2016 award nominee. Even if he does not win "best in show," he will most likely win the honorary award.

Minnesota’s Democratic governor said Wednesday that the Affordable Care Act is “no longer affordable” for many, a stinging critique from a state leader who strongly embraced the law and proudly proclaimed health reform was working in Minnesota just a few years ago.

Gov. Mark Dayton made the comments while addressing questions about Minnesota’s fragile health insurance market, where individual plans are facing double-digit increases after all insurers threatened to exit the market entirely in 2017. He’s the only Democratic governor to publicly suggest the law isn’t working as intended.

Dayton’s comments follow former President Bill Clinton’s saying last week that the law was “the craziest thing in the world” before he backtracked.

“The reality is the Affordable Care Act is no longer affordable for increasing numbers of people,” Dayton said, calling on Congress to fix the law to address rising costs and market stability.

Much more at the link.

Original Post

 

I've seen numerous stories along the same line, but this may be one even folks in Hillary's camp can understand. In the WSJ today, an op-ed on page A15 -- ObamaCare's meltdown has arrived. Not linked; easy to google.

Helloooooo! Knock-knock, knock-knock. Hellooooo! Anyone home? Two new nominees for the Geico Rock Award 2016: Andrew Ogles, Tennessee state director, and Luke Hilgemann, CEO of Americans for Prosperity. The implosion began two years ago. I guess the folks at ground zero are now just climbing out of the rubble and writing about it. Wow.

The lede:

Tennessee is ground zero for ObamaCare's nationwide implosion. Late last month the state insurance commissioner approved premium increases of up to 62% in a bid to save the exchange set up under the Affordable Care Act.

"I would characterize the exchange market in Tennessee as very near collapse," the Tennessee insurance commissioner said.

Very. Near. Collapse.

Then last week BlueCross/BlueShield of Tennessee announced it would leave Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville.

BC/BS said they had experienced losses approaching $500 million over the course of three years on ACA plans. This is unsustainable.

And it just gets worse from there. I don't think I will even link the article. As noted earlier, only the folks climbing out of the ObamaCare rubble are learning about this for the first time.

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The War Time President

This is a link to an AP story. The bottom line: President Obama would not be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize at this time.

AP tried to spin the story, suggesting that not everything Obama has done has been "bad." For example, "He is the commander-in-chief who pulled more than a hundred thousand U.S. troops out of harm's way in Iraq, ...." except that Obama's self-planned vacuum resulted in, everyone agrees, with the rise of ISIS. In response to  this "JV team," according to the AP, President Obama "also began a slow trickle of US soldiers back in." Incredibly bad policy to begin with, losing a war that had been won, and then, a response that was way to late, way to weak. (We won't even talk about Syria; and, of course, there are now pundits in Russia  who suggest a nuclear war between the US and Russia is closer than ever.)

I did not read the whole story, so I may have missed it, but it appears that the AP failed to note that President Obama is the first US president in history to have been at war the entire time he was president: and he was president for two full terms (assuming he doesn't find a constitutional loophole or create a constitutional crisis to extend his presidency, and his wars, which is not beyond the pale, if Trump has more electoral votes than Hillary at 11:00 p.m. Central Time, election night).

Global Inflation Falls To Seven-Year Low -- October 4, 2016

Global inflation falls to seven-year low. WSJ. Data points:

• global inflation rates fell for the second straight month in August
• lowest level in almost seven years
• seven years ago: global economy in the throes of a downtown that followed the financial crisis (mark-to-market mayhem -- see below)
• inflation rate now at 2.1% (down from 2.2% in July)
• smallest rise in consumer prices since October, 2009, when they increased by 1.7%

Perhaps Krugman was correct.

*************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	10/4/2016	10/04/2015	10/04/2014	10/04/2013	10/04/2012
Active Rigs	32	68	190	183	189

RBN Energy: Colonial leak's impact minimized by imports, use of line 2. The big story here is how one interruption in the nation's energy pipeline system can become such a huge story. Perhaps President Obama should shut down all pipelines until they figure out what caused the Colonial leak.

The increase in waterborne flows to the East Coast in response to the recent Colonial Pipeline outage illustrated the flexibility of supply in the U.S. motor gasoline market. At the same time, the lack of a lasting impact from the loss of 8.3 million barrels of gasoline to a key U.S. demand region highlighted the degree of oversupply in the market. Today we look at how waterborne flows helped to mitigate the effects of the Colonial Pipeline outage, and how flexibility in the East Coast motor gasoline market enabled it to handle unexpected supply constraints with minimal disruption.

Colonial Pipeline is the largest source of refined product supply for the U.S. East Coast. Colonial’s primary route (from Houston to Linden, NJ) consists of four distinct segments, which, like the “arms” and “legs” of an X, meet at Greensboro, NC. One of the two Houston-to-Greensboro lines is dedicated to moving motor gasoline (Line 1, capacity, 1.37 MMb/d), and the other line (Line 2; capacity, 1.16 MMb/d) can be used to ship either distillate (diesel and heating oil) or gasoline, each of which can be move sequentially through Line 2 in “batches”.

At Greensboro, these products go into breakout tanks; from there, gasoline and distillates are sent further north (again in batches) on two mainline pipes. Line 3 (capacity, 885 Mb/d) runs from Greensboro to Linden––where it connects with the Intra Harbor Transfer (IHT) system, which facilitates deliveries to terminals across the New York and New Jersey area. Line 4 is a 32-inch-diameter pipe (capacity, ~700 Mb/d) that runs from Greensboro to Colonial’s Dorsey Junction terminal near Baltimore, MD.

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US Propane Exports Now 2nd Largest US Petroleum Product Export

From the EIA:

In the first half of 2016, the United States exported 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum products, an increase of 500,000 b/d over the first half of 2015 and almost 10 times the crude oil export volume. While U.S. exports of distillate and gasoline increased by 50,000 b/d and nearly 140,000 b/d, respectively, propane exports increased by more than 230,000 b/d. Propane surpassed motor gasoline to become the second-largest U.S. petroleum product export, after distillate. --- EIA

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That Phony Cut

Oil prices flat on skepticism over OPEC's efficacy -- WSJ. We have learned this:

• OPEC is pumping at record levels even after end of summer surge
• Nigeria, Libya are exempt from OPEC's "agreement" (Bloomberg story here)
• Russia is not part of the deal

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Mark to Market and Boeing

Mark to market mayhem: Investopedia.
Boeing's unique accounting method helps improve profit picture: WSJ.

*****************************

President Obama's Foreign Policy Successes

US-Russia ties crumble under weight of Syria, nuclear pact: Bloomberg

Philippines says sayonara to the US, aloha to China: WSJ

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What President Bill Really Thinks Of ObamaCare

ObamaCare is a "crazy system": Bill Clinton.

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The Demise Of The Big Box Stores

Sears to sell Craftsman for $2 billion.

Toys 'R Us to sell FOA Schwarz.

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The Market

Late morning: flat; Dow 30 up about 5 points. Oil up five cents at $49.45. NYSE:

• new highs: 55 -- CLR, another big whoop; Encana;
• new lows: 13

Opening: Dow 30 up about 50 points, if I remember correctly.

Motorcycles On Main Street, Grapevine, TX -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 2, 2016

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

Sometimes I don't blog as much as I normally would because I am overwhelmed by all the negativity in the mainstream media.

Right now, I am unable to blog because of all the good news coming out of the mainstream media.

Nothing has changed, just my perception after visiting the Bakken this past week.

I think things are in a lot better shape than the mainstream media would have us believe.

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Note To The Granddaughters

This weekend, her dad took the oldest granddaughter to Houston where she was playing in a regional water polo tournament.

Meanwhile, her mother took the middle-aged granddaughter to all her soccer games and Olympic Development Program sessions.

And that left me with two full days of being with Sophia. She and I are joined at the hip. She can read my mind; I can read hers. I can anticipate when she needs something, and what she needs.

Tonight, Sophia and I spent the evening downtown. We had dinner in a 5-star French pastry restaurant on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, and then explored Main Street after dinner.

The motorcyclists were out; Sophia is fascinated by motorcycles, as am I. A short video of our time on Main Street, Grapevine, TX, tonight.

Sophia was quite thrilled to be carrying the dessert -- chocolate mousse cake -- home in her little "doggie bag." Sophia picked out the dessert herself. The slice of cake they gave us could have served a family of four, so we had a fair amount to take home:

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ObamaCare Ailing, Failing -- NY Times

Link here. The details hardly matter. Anyone paying attention knows the problem. The newsworthy "thing" is that the NY Times has finally dared print what most of us have know for six years.

Meanwhile, over in Minnesota, the ObamaCare news gets worse every day. Link here.

Minnesota's top health insurance regulator says the state's individual market is in "an emergency situation" amid big rate increases for next year.

Department of Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman said Friday that the five companies offering plans through the state's exchange or directly to consumers were prepared to leave the market for 2017.

He said big rate increases were the tradeoff to convince all but one company to remain for now.

Killdeer Bypass Completed -- October 1, 2016

Link here. This is the fourth major bypass I am aware of -- Williston, Watford City, Alexander, and, now, Killdeer.

From the linked article: the state has invested a total of $420 million on construction of truck routes around the four cities noted above and also New Town and Dickinson.

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Hurricane Matthew

Category 4

US evacuates family members from Gitmo. This category 4 hurricane is likely to hit Gitmo directly. One wonders if this will be the event that permanently closes the prison. There would be a precedent: the volcanic eruption some decades ago that closed our US air base in the Philippines. 

Reminder: track this hurricane at winds.

AccuWeather story here.

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Another One Bites The Dust

Harken To Exit Illinois ObamaCare Exchange

Link here.  Data points:

• a small exchange; will effect very few, maybe 25,000
• a subsidiary of UnitedHeatlhcare
• three other insurers have already bailed: Insurers Aetna, UnitedHealthcare, and Land of Lincoln
• Cook County residents with three remaining choices

Jobs Report -- September 29, 2016

Claims rose to 254,000. And here. Well below the 260,000 forecast. Four-week moving average, down from 258,500 previously, at 256,000.

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Individual Health Insurance Premiums Soar -- Duluth News Tribune

Link here.  Data points:

• Minnesota: private health care insurance premiums to rise 67% next year
• follows BC/BS announcement earlier this summer it was eliminating all but one of its individual health policies
• insurance regulators: "premium increases are unacceptable but nothing they can do"

 

*********************************

Consumer Spending Drops; "Clouds" Federal Reserve Rate Hike Decision --  Reuters

Link here.  Data points:

• US consumer spending fell in August for the first time in seven months
• inflation showed "cautious signs of accelerating"
• US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity
• spending fell 0.1% (after accounting for inflation); analysts had expected a 0.1% gain

Not to worry: once higher gasoline prices kick in, consumer spending will increase. 

China's Peak Oil Problem --September 13, 2016

Updates

Later, 2:02 p.m. Central Time: after reporting earlier that ConnectiCare was coming to an end (see below) it is now being reported that another ObamaCare co-op is closing shop: New Jersey. There are only six (6) ObamaCare co-ops still operating.

The New Jersey co-op is the 17th Obamacare co-op to collapse, joining other co-ops that have failed including two in Oregon, one each in Illinois, Connecticut, Arizona,

Colorado, Kentucky, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana and Utah, as well as a co-op that served both Iowa and Nebraska.

This leaves only six co-ops in existence of the 23 that were originally created under Obamacare.

Original Post

China's peak oil problem: First, an update on China's peak oil problem -- Chinese oil production has tanked; lowest in six years -- Forbes. I first posted a "China's peak oil" problem back on August 26, 2016. This from Forbes dated today's date. Some data points:

• China: world's second largest crude oil importer
• China: fifth largest crude oil producer
• China: domestic production fell nearly 10% in the past 12 months -- the lowest in more than six (6) years
• second consecutive month of decline in production
• but look at this: Chinese production is in the same ballpark as the Bakken unfettered

• Bakken unfettered: 2.2 million bopd
• Chinese production: 3.87 million bopd 

• Chinese imports reaching record highs

• up 16% this past year
• on glide path to pass US as the world's largest oil importer
  

**********************************

Active rigs in North Dakota:

	9/13/2016	09/13/2015	09/13/2014	09/13/2013	09/13/2012
Active Rigs	35	69	199	180	192

RBN Energy: the return of LNG imports as a backstop for US pipeline gas.

California and New England are two of the nation’s quirkier regions when it comes to energy –– and we mean that in the nicest way possible. So maybe it’s not too surprising that, at a time when the U.S. is just beginning a big push to export natural gas as LNG, the Golden State and “Yankeeland” (as some still refer to New England) are turning to imported LNG to help them deal with possible gas shortages during peak demand periods this coming winter. In neither case is liquefied natural gas considered to be a long-term fix, but –– for now at least –– LNG may be playing a role in keeping the pilot lights lit and the electric lights on. Today, we look at how the stockpiling and use of LNG can still make sense in a nation with an abundant supply of gas.

Just a few years ago, before the dawn of the Shale Era, just about everyone thought that U.S. natural gas production had peaked and that our energy future would involve increasing volumes of imported LNG. That sparked the development of a number of LNG import terminals, most of them along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Mexico, anticipating a similar fate, developed a few import terminals too, including one –– Energía Costa Azul –– in Baja California, just south of San Diego, CA. As we all know, the Shale Revolution turned LNG-importing plans on their head (at least in the U.S.), and several of those LNG import terminals are being converted into liquefaction/LNG export terminals with the aim of selling a significant portion of U.S. gas production overseas. All this makes it somewhat ironic that, given the vast volumes of gas being produced domestically today, LNG imports are making a bit of a comeback, if only temporarily and for a special purpose –– namely, as a backup source of gas in the event that existing regional infrastructure cannot supply enough traditionally piped-in natural gas during short periods of very high demand.

***********************************

What a Difference One Day Makes

Look At These Headlines

What a difference a day makes. From today's WSJ unless otherwise stated:

• top of the fold, front page: divided Fed inclined to stand pat
• merger to create global fertilizer giant (Potash Corp; Agrium; $36 billion)
• Hanjin restarts cargo deliveries
• Apple, Daimler on BOE list (to buy corporate bonds)
• stocks gain as rate fears abate
• oil rises on weak dollar, stockpile drop (remember last week: the stockpile drop was supposedly a one-off due to huge Hurricane Hermione)
• markets wag the Federal Reserve
• negative rates may do more harm than good -- Bloomberg
• GM's Chevy Bolt (EV) to go 238 miles per charge -- Yahoo!Finance
• early morning trading: Dow 30 off 120 points and still well above 18,000; NASDAQ off 20 points and still well above 5,000 

********************************
The Chevy Bolt

The LA Times takes a test ride -- hardly a vote of confidence.

• range anxiety even before they started, and range anxiety throughout the trip

But then look at how they did it:

Granted, I wasn’t traveling much above 50 mph most of the way, and was often going much slower. But when I got to Cambria, my max number was 204, my minimum 141 and my average 173.

Top speed 50 mph most of the way to "conserve energy" and to max distance. Top speed of 50 mph. The article actually said, "not much above 50 mph" so we are talking about driving at 45 mph to get the mileage needed. 

The devil is always in the details.


So, how is TSLA doing today? Not good. Down almost 2% and worse, now below $200/share. Adding "radar" to cameras/software for crash avoidance is going to cost a lot in time, money, and engineering resources.

**********************************
The Market

Mid-day trading: the "big boys" must have gotten the word from the Fed -- we're going to announce a Fed "rate increase" on Wednesday. The Fed has entered a "quiet period" but when the market slumps 200 points after an earlier 400-point drop, one knows the "big boys" know what the Fed is going to do. This has nothing to do with energy.

********************************

Connecticut: Latest State to End ObamaCare Policies

From The Hartford Courant. Some data points:

• latest state to end ObamaCare policies
• state program is called: ConnectiCare
• ConnectiCare covers "nearly" 50,000 people
• the company would "still like to sell policies if it gets the rate increase it wants"
• ConnectiCare got the rate it requested (17.4%) back in August, but now realizes that's not enough: needs an average 27.1 percent increase
• two smaller insurers had already departed: UnitedHealthcare and HealthyCT
• if ConnectiCare leaves, only Anthem remains (single payer system -- what the Dems wanted in the first place -- so what's the problem?)
• 2016: 108,000 people in CT were covered by ObamaCare policies (the four companies mentioned above)
• the Connecticut Insurance Department shut down HealthyCT -- with only 10,000 customers, not enough financial resources to run a program

Hillary has Connecticut locked up. If not, she would be there in a "heartbeat" to say HillaryCare would fix the problem.

********************************** 

 The Political Page

This morning on local talk radio, a journalist assigned to the Hillary Campaign, who says he's neutral, says all the noise about Hillary's medical problems won't change voters' minds. He may want to check the daily USC-LA Times poll in which Trump turned sharply up (45.8%) and Hillary turned sharply down (42.8%) in the first poll after the "event." This is the widest spread in several days, but more importantly, the mojo shifted in the past 72 hours.

This would be the first poll after the medical event and after the campaign blew this off as simply a case of "walking pneumonia" in an otherwise robust, healthy, 68-year-old grandmother who occasionally passes out, according to the "neutral" journalist covering the Hillary campaign. The only thing he was upset about was the fact that the "Clinton Campaign," not Hillary, lied to the press about her medical status, failing to divulge until 48 hours later that she had been given a medical diagnosis on Friday. He wasn't quite sure about the exact number of hours; he said he would have to check his notes. I can't make this stuff up.

• 24 hours ago, September 12: Hillary: 44.4 vs Trump 44.1
• 48 hours ago, September 11, Sunday, the day of the medical event; poll before the medical event: Hillary, 45.0 vs Trump, 43.6
• 72 hours ago, September 10, Saturday, a full day before the medical event: Hillary, 44.8 Trump,  43.8.

The polling link is dynamic but it is interactive and you can find exact numbers all the way back to July 10, 2016.

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Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution

Nathaniel Philbrick

c. 2016

DDS: 973.4 PHI

Chapter 3
A Cabinet of Fortitude

Recap:

• three regional entities of the American Army by June 1776
• the Army of the North: Brig Gen Benedict Arnold, successfully held Fort Ticonderoga
• the Army of the South (Georgia, North and South Carolina): has repulsed British Gen Clinton
• the Grand Army, everything in between: General Washington, mostly failures; some great retreats
• General Washington at risk of losing his command

Now:

• General Washington has evacuated NYC; rushed across New Jersey, and in early December, "crossed the Delaware," and set up HQ in Newton, PA, just across the Delaware River from where Howe set up his HQ in Trenton, NJ
• Howe: at a disadvantage; spread thin; guerrilla / back-country warfare
• Howe: put his Hessians in New Jersey; they saw the same problem (spread thin; back-country warfare of attrition)
• General Washington planning daring attack under darkness on Trenton, the HQ of Howe

Crossing the Delaware (again) and taking Trenton -- the Hessians

Washington doubled down; taking Trenton exceeded all expectations; ready to push the Brits out of New Jersey, back to NYC

The battles of Trenton, Assunpink Creek, and Princeton: often looked to as the point at which Washington blossomed into the brilliant commander we revere today. [First Battle of Trenton, Second Battle of Trenton in this chapter.]

His troops were too exhausted to move on to Brunswick (on the Raritan River), so he reluctantly marched to the north, taking several days to get to Morristown to recoup.

Catch And Release -- The New ObamaPolicy On Law Enforcement; If Amazon Absolutely, Positively Needs To Get It To You In Two Days -- They Buy It From Walmart; Iowans Want To Turn Down "Mailbox Money"; See Health Premiums Rise 40% -- September 2, 2016

Enbridge Puts Sandpiper Pipeline project on hold. Reported at Zacks.  This pretty much only hurts blue-collar folks. Investors will benefit. Takeaway in the Bakken is more than adequate. Warren Buffett will open another bottle of champagne tonight. Enbridge to Minnesota: no mailbox money for you.

**************************************

Gasoline Prices Over Labor Day Weekend May Be Lowest In Twelve Years

The story is reported here. By the way, John Kemp has tweeted that US refiners "went all out" this summer shifting from producing distillates like diesel to producing gasoline. Yesterday, the EIA said June, 2016, set a record for most gasoline produced in any month ever in the US. I'm not sure if that was exactly correct: it sort of depends what one is measuring, at least according to my astute readers.

National average for gasoline: around $2.25.

Compare with about $1.50 / gallon when President Obama took office in 2009.

****************************

What Cheap, Available Gasoline And Crude Oil Means

Even the Chinese and Indians want bigger cars. Ford will curtail plans for expanding small car production in China and India. Customers there want bigger SUVs and cross-overs. Ford will move small-car production from China and India to Brazil, Thailand, and Russia.

**************************************

Petrobras "sheds" almost 12,000 employees. Reported elsewhere. No links. Easy to find.

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Amazon, Target, And Walmart: One Big Distributor

This is a huge story: the writer says that the impact on Amazon is small, but something tells me this might be a bigger story some day. I'm sure very, very smart logisticians with math degrees and ability to write code at both Amazon and Walmart are studying this issue very, very carefully. If the link is broken, google retail arbitrage.

********************************

Catch And Release 
 

I'm not going to bother finding the links but it was reported that President Obama has pardoned or commuted more felons than the last 10 presidents combined.

Years ago, in high school or college, I wrote a note to myself, placed it in a sealed envelope, labeled it not to be opened until some time in the future, and then put it among my memorabilia. In that note to myself -- remember, this was as a high school or college student, decades ago -- I told myself that sometime in the future law enforcement would be nothing more than fishermen (not politically correct). The policy of law enforcement would eventually be one of "catch and release."

This was most likely high school; I did not have time for such nonsense when I was in college. 

I was reminded of that by this story out of Milwaukee which recorded its worst month for homicides in 25 years.

"We've had a slight increase in domestic violence homicides this year, but the biggest driver of our homicides is arguments and fights and retaliation among people with criminal records," Milwaukee Police Chief Edward Flynn said Thursday.

Misguided policies have misguided consequences. Oksol's Law. 

By the way, what happened back in 1991.

It is the highest monthly total since July 1991, when the victims of serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer were discovered.

***********************************

Insurance Hikes

From USA Today:

With dramatic drops in insurance company participation on the exchanges for some states, decreased competition and other factors are leading to often jarring rate hikes. Some of the states that are facing what are likely among the biggest increases this year — Tennessee, Arizona and North Carolina — were among those the Urban Institute reported in May had the biggest increases last year.

“The reality is, it’s all very justified, unfortunately,” Iowa insurance commissioner Nick Gerhart said Thursday of the premium increases he approved this week of 19% to 43% for about 70,000 Iowans who buy their own policies.

Gerhart warned consumers in a rate hearing in July that if he rejected insurers’ proposed premium increases for 2017, the carriers would likely decline to sell policies in the state. No carriers made an explicit threat to leave Iowa, but the implication was clear, he says: “It gives you less room to maneuver." Iowa law, he said, requires him to judge proposed premium increases on whether experts find them to be justified by carriers’ projected costs.

As other state insurance commissioners gradually sign off on insurers' rate requests — which should all be decided within a month — many consumers are learning what's in store for 2017.

Idle Rambling On The New iPhone 7 -- The Apple Page -- August 28, 2016

Updates

August 29, 2016: from Macrumors --

The fall 2016 event is expected to see the debut of the next-generation iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, which are rumored to feature improved cameras, better processors, and improved water resistance, implemented through the removal of the headphone jack and the introduction of a new flush, pressure-sensitive home button. Both devices are said to look similar to the iPhone 6s, with the same general size and shape, but with relocated antenna bands that no longer span the back of the devices.

Original Post

 

The next Apple "launch" is sometime in September, next month. Lots of rumors, as usual.

One rumor: Apple will "remove" the headphone "jack" from the new iPhone 7. If Apple does not remove the headphone "jack" I will be quite disappointed in Tim Cook. Steve would have removed the "jack" at least one iteration ago (the 6s) and even possibly two iterations ago (the 6).

I mentioned that to my wife earlier this morning. This afternoon I took a bike ride to the Apple store in Southlake (stopping at Costco and Barnes & Noble, along the way). At the back of the story is where they keep accessories: drones, headphones, power cords and adapters, cases, external hard drives (terabytes of storage).

By the way, you can get 2 TB of brand-name external hard drive storage for $69 at Costco; at Apple, brand-name external 2 TB storage will cost $109. Add another 8% at each store for tax. But I digress.

In the past, the back end of the store with the accessories has been pretty much a "lot" of everything. But today, it seemed about 75% of the space was for Beats wireless over-the-ear headphones and Beats wireless ear buds.

The display almost shouted: "Yes, the iPhone 7 will NOT have the headphone jack. You will need a wireless pair of ear buds or headphones.

I was curious was Macrumors.com might have to say about wireless headphones. When googled, this was the first hit: "Apple stores offering exclusive Jaybird Freedom (Wireless) Ear Buds."

Again, "it" just seems to shout: ""Yes, the iPhone 7 will NOT have the headphone jack. You will need a wireless pair of ear buds or headphones."

If Tim Cook does not pull the headphone jack, I will be quite disappointed, not because it makes any difference to me (I don't have an iPhone) but because it suggests to me Tim Cook is not willing to skate to where the puck will be.

The iPhone already has wireless built in, so this would be removing a piece of hardware the iPhone no longer needs. The "jack" is the long pole in the teepee with regard to the thickness of the iPhone: removing the "jack" will allow Apple to make the iPhone thinner.

***************************

Death Spiral

ObamaCare -- the "insurance program that promised you can keep your doctor, you can keep your health plan" -- is in a death spiral. I think the milliondollarway was the first non-commercial (no ads) blog that used that phrase, "death spiral."

The Washington Post is using the phrase "far short than forecast" to describe how many folks are signing up for ObamaCare. Look how bad this is:

Enrollment in the insurance exchanges for President Obama’s signature health-care law is at less than half the initial forecast, pushing several major insurance companies to stop offering health plans in certain markets because of significant financial losses.

As a result, the administration’s promise of a menu of health-plan choices has been replaced by a grim, though preliminary, forecast: Next year, more than 1 in 4 counties are at risk of having a single insurer on its exchange.

Debate over how perilous the predicament is for the Affordable Care Act, commonly called Obamacare, is nearly as partisan as the divide over the law itself.

But at the root of the problem is this: The success of the law depends fundamentally on the exchanges being profitable for insurers — and that requires more people to sign up.

In February 2013, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that 24 million people would buy health coverage through the federally and state-operated online exchanges by this year.

Just 11.1 million people were signed up as of late March.

Obama no longer cares. He has moved on. Getting ready for the next chapter in his life which most likely includes a Clintonesque MuslemUSA Foundation.

By 2018, if not by the end of 2017, we will pretty much see the end of ObamaCare prompting Ms Clinton to go to Congress for the "public option" -- a euphemism for "US National Health Service." Medicare for all.

And she may very well get it.  Especially if the GOP loses the Senate and the House. And the Supreme Court.

ObamaCare? Wipeout?

Wipeout, cover, MissDrumz

The Tipping Point: ObamaCare Has Problems; Exposed By Aetna -- Washington Post -- August 16, 2016

Updates

September 3, 2017: fewer and fewer stories on ObamaCare. No longer matters. SF Chronicle, "frustration mounts over premiums for individual health plans." Data points:

• premiums will rise by double-digits (on a percentage basis)
• very small group actually affected -- not enough to get Congress to act
• early retirees, skilled tradespeople, musicians, self-employed professionals, business owners, employees with small employers who don't provide health insurance
• Delaware example: premiums will jump 35% from $740/month to $1,000/month this November

June 21, 2017: Anthem to depart Indiana and Wisconsin.

June 12, 2017: Iowa going down. 

June 6, 2017: Anthem exits Ohio.

May 24, 2017: BC/BS to pull out of Kansas City, MO. Not trivial and it's still not TrumpCare. It's ObamaCare.

April 9, 2017: ObamaCare premiums keep rising -- Bloomberg. Costs up more than 20% in three states that have posted rates.

April 6, 2017: Aetna "pulls out" of Iowa. From the Des Moines Register.

April 4, 2017: Knoxville could be first US city where ObamaCare fails. CNN reports that Humana, the only insurer left on the Affordable Care exchange in the Knoxville area, is set to exit the market in 2018. 

February 15, 2017: IRS will not reject tax filings submitted without healthcare insurance information. 

February 15, 2017: Humana will exit ObamaCare, 2018. FoxNews reports that Aetna was the first insurer to drop out of ObamaCare.

February 1, 2017: Aetna may pull out of ObamaCare next year. Apparently the decision has been made.

November 1, 2016; even the Washington Post seems to be saying -- let's take off our gloves on ObamaCare -- and report it "neutrally." 

October 31, 2016: the tipping point in Arizona -- sky-rocketing 2017 ObamaCaare premiums. 

October 23, 2016: Pittsburgh Tribune headline -- the 2017 ObamaCare premium increases raise suggestions that ObamaCare has begun a "death spiral."

The hefty increases Pennsylvania has approved for next year's individual health plans provide new fodder for Obamacare critics who say the federal law's insurance marketplace is bound to fail.

The state's Insurance Department last week approved increases averaging 32.5 percent for the 2017 plans, making Pennsylvania one of 14 states so far to increase individual rates by an average of more than 30 percent, according to data on ACAsignups.net, a site that tracks enrollment and pricing.

August 31, 2016: The Huffington Post weighs in. I have no idea why. 

August 25, 2016: from Carpe Diem

‘Keep your doctor’ and ‘keep your plan’ got a Pants on Fire rating and have been scrubbed from Obamacare website

August 21, 2016: ObamaCare has gone from the president's greatest achievement to a "slow-motion death spiral." -- Business Insider. 

It has not been a good week for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), better known as Obamacare.

A slew of news, from insurers dropping out to possible fraud among healthcare providers, has all accumulated in a deluge of negative headlines for one of President Obama's signature laws.

In fact, it's gotten so bad that it appears that the whole program itself may be in doubt.

August 19, 2016: why are health insurers dropping out? Expenses underestimated by huge amounts. Same with Medicaid. Cost of ObamaCare Medicaid expansion was almost 50% higher than previously estimated. Congress really, really hurt the US middle class. Sold a huge bill of goods. It appears everyone lost on ObamaCare. 

August 18, 2016: even CNBC admits -- ObamaCare is now in a death spiral.

In other words, the insurance "death spiral" has arrived. Obamacare's critics have long predicted that exchange plans' high premiums and deductibles would keep all but the sickest Americans from enrolling. These people would need so much medical care that insurers would lose money no matter how much they raised premiums. Eventually, insurers would have no choice but to pull out. 

President Obama and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have proposed a novel solution to this government-created problem — more government. They're pushing for a government-run "public option" that would usher in de facto single-payer health care. That'd be a disaster for consumers and taxpayers alike.

August 18, 2016: as ObamaCare implodes, Democrats blame insurers. An op-ed at The WSJ.

August 18, 2016: the number of stories and the media posting those stories suggest that we may have reached a tipping point on the day Aetna announced that it was pulling out of ObamaCare except for a very few exchanges. The most recent story from US News:

Aetna's decision to partially withdraw from a major provision of President Barack Obama's health care law is leaving some Americans with only one or no health insurance options, threatening the law's promise to continue to reduce the number of people who have historically been too sick or too poor to access coverage.

Aetna, retaliating in part against a Department of Justice lawsuit, announced Monday that it was leaving exchanges in 11 states, following a string of similar announcements earlier this year that came from other large insurers like UnitedHealth and Humana.

The exchanges, or marketplaces, allow some Americans who don't get health insurance from an employer to compare different plans and buy them at a tax-subsidized rate, mostly in the form of reductions to the amount they pay for their policies each month. But with insurers choosing not to participate, in part because they are losing money by covering people who are sicker and seeking out immediate care after having insurance for the first time, people who shop for these plans are left with even fewer options to choose from.

Some will have only one plan to select, and at least one – Pinal County, Arizona – will have none.

The Obama administration's response is to point out that health insurance companies are still adapting to the law and that millions of people will continue to receive coverage. Officials also point out that health insurance companies can leave or join the marketplace each year. But for many customers, Aetna's pullout will be more than just an inconvenience.  

August 18, 2016: the number of stories and the media posting those stories suggest that we may have reached a tipping point on the day Aetna announced that it was pulling out of ObamaCare except for a very few exchanges. The most recent story from The Wall Street Journal:

Barack Obama’s signature health-care law is struggling for one overriding reason: Selling mispriced insurance is a precarious business model.

Aetna Inc. dealt the Affordable Care Act a severe setback by announcing Monday it would drastically reduce its participation in its insurance exchanges. Its reason: The company was attracting much sicker patients than expected. Indeed, all five of the largest national insurers say they are losing money on their ACA policies and three, including Aetna, are pulling back from the exchanges as a result.

The problem isn’t technical or temporary; it’s intrinsic to how the law was written. By incentivizing insurers to misprice risk, the law has created an unstable dynamic. Total enrollment this year will be barely half the 22 million the Congressional Budget Office projected just three years ago. Premiums, meanwhile, are set to skyrocket, which will further hamper enrollment. It isn’t clear how this can be fixed.

August 18, 2016: the number of stories and the media posting those stories suggest that we may have reached a tipping point on the day Aetna announced that it was pulling out of ObamaCare except for a very few exchanges. The most recent story from Forbes:

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) has produced massive consolidation among health care providers, largely the result of hospitals merging and large hospital systems taking over private doctor practices. In response and in an apparent attempt to improve their negotiating position with the consolidated providers, four of the five major for-profit health insurance companies have proposed mergers: Aetna with Humana and Cigna with Anthem. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has moved to block the mergers, citing a growing threat to health care market competition.

Before making that decision, the DOJ asked Aetna, and likely the other insurers as well, how DOJ action to challenge the merger would affect the insurer’s decision to participate in the ACA exchanges. Aetna CEO Mark Bertloni wrote in reply:

The President asked us to take a long-term view when this law went into effect, and, unlike many others, we have stayed the course and worked constructively to make the public exchange market work. The acquisition of Humana puts Aetna in a significantly better position to continue and expand its support.

Unfortunately, a challenge by the DOJ to that acquisition and/or the DOJ successfully blocking the transaction would have a negative financial impact on Aetna and would impair Aetna’s ability to continue its support, leaving Aetna with no choice but to take actions to steward its financial health. …
Although we remain supportive of the Administration’s efforts to expand coverage, we must also face market realities. … We have been operating on the public exchanges since the beginning of 2014 at a substantial loss. … Our ability to withstand these losses is dependent on our achieving anticipated synergies in the Humana acquisition. …

Our analysis to date makes clear that if the deal were challenged and/or blocked we would need to take immediate actions to mitigate public exchange and ACA small group losses. Specifically, if the DOJ sues to enjoin the transaction, we will immediately take action to reduce our 2017 exchange footprint.

In other words, Aetna’s position is that it would continue to participate in the exchanges, despite the fact that they were a money losing proposition, if a favorable decision on merging with Humana was forthcoming so the insurer would have extra synergies, i.e. profits, elsewhere. The inescapable and disturbing implication here is that due to the ACA, important decisions affecting health care markets, made both by government and by private companies, are now increasingly becoming a function of political negotiations and DOJ market concentration calculations.

August 17, 2016: the number of stories and the media posting those stories suggest that we may have reached a tipping point. The most recent one in The New York Times:

Facing high-profile withdrawals from online insurance exchanges and surging premiums, the Obama administration is preparing a major push to enroll new participants into public marketplaces under the Affordable Care Act.

The administration is eyeing an advertising campaign featuring testimonials from newly insured consumers, as well as direct appeals to young people hit by tax penalties this year for failing to enroll.

But as many insurers continue to lose money on the exchanges, they say the administration’s response is too late and too weak. The companies point to a fundamental dynamic in the marketplace in which too few healthy people are buying policies and too many sick people are filing costly claims.

And the uneasy truce between the government and insurers, which followed adoption of the health care law, appears to be fraying as some of the large companies say they are leaving or sharply scaling back. Aetna warned the Justice Department last month that the company would curtail its participation in the exchanges if the government sued to block its acquisition of Humana, a major competitor.

In a July 5 letter, disclosed by The Huffington Post, Mark T. Bertolini, the chairman and chief executive of Aetna, said that in the event of a lawsuit, “we will immediately take action to reduce our 2017 exchange footprint.” He argued that Aetna needed to form a combined insurance giant to mitigate its losses on the exchanges.

The Justice Department filed suit two weeks later, saying that the combination of Aetna and Humana would reduce competition in violation of federal antitrust law. On Monday, Aetna announced that it would sharply reduce its participation in the public marketplaces next year, offering individual insurance products in 242 of the 778 counties where it now provides such coverage.

An Aetna spokesman insisted on Wednesday that it was the growing financial losses in the exchanges — not the challenge to its acquisition of Humana — that ultimately “drove us to announce the narrowing of our public exchange presence for the 2017 plan year.”

August 17, 2016: Aetna telegraphed that it would exit ObamaCare if merger denied by Obama administration. 
 

Original Post 

 

When I first posted this story, I said the story "had legs."

Wow, was that correct. This story really has legs. Tonight at 8:02 p.m. Eastern Time, The Washington Post has a big story on Aetna saying sayonara to ObamaCare: Aetna decision exposes weaknesses in Obama's health-care law.

And another nominee for the 2016 Geico Rock Award: Carolyn Y. Johnson and Juliet Ellperin of The Washington Post.

Insurance giant Aetna’s decision to stop offering much of its individual coverage through the Affordable Care Act is exposing a problem in President Obama’s signature health-care law that could lead to another fraught political battle in Congress.

Aetna’s announcement Monday night was the latest sign that large insurers are losing money in the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces, heightening concerns about the long-term stability of a key part of Obama’s domestic policy legacy. But addressing this issue could open the door to a nasty political fight, given that some Republicans have vowed to repeal the law outright.

I quit reading at that point.