Maine Voters Reject State Takeover Of Private Utility Companies -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46039MAINE. 

Updates

November 12, 2023: link here.

Original Post 

Before we get to the rates, let's look at another "clown world." Waiting in line at midnight to re-charge one's Tesla in Burbank, CA.

Link here.

This appears to be an overall average, not just residential, but it's not clear. 

The EIA says the average retail rate across the US is 12.36 cents / kWh.

These four charts are from the first link above.

Change, descending: note -- 

• Massachusetts rate increased almost 14% y/y and Rhode Island, at 12% was a close second.
• Reason? Link here.

Price, descending: note -- 

• outliers: Hawaii and Alaska; ignore
• of the top eight, excluding the outliers, six were in New England
• the seventh was almost New England -- New York
• the third was California

Price, ascending: note -- 

• least expensive: Louisiana
• of the lowest nine, five were in the South or Deep South
• of the lowest nine, two were on the west coast
• frustratingly, in this data base, ND can no longer claim really, really low rates; now near the national average (insert sad face here); if accurate -- blame wind / solar
  

Price -- New England: note -- 

• Maine has the lowest rates in New England;
  
• Maine is in the midst of a major change in regulating electric rates in off-year election, November 7, 2023
• Maine's rate actually decreased -- albeit negligibly -- y/y.
  

Sunday Night -- Headlines — November 12, 2023

Locator: 46038HEADLINES. 

Focus on Fracking: pending.

MAX, Netflix: $10-bundle? Wow. Verizon. 

Not good news for Disney. I think most could predict it was just a matter of time for cut—rate prices. There must be a dozen free streaming services. In addition, Prime Video is “free” with Prime subscription. Many people use friend’s password for one or two special movies. Ads will pay for a lot of streaming. Amazon’s NFL TNF model is working. ESPN’s not so much — analyst.

Disney: Marvel movie a disaster. I wonder why?

Wind: Europe’s largest wind farm facing bankruptcy. Link here.

X-37B: another success story. Wiki. This is quite a story:

• two orbital vehicles; robotic space vehicles; reusable;
  
• first launch, 2010
• combined: 10.34 years in space
• most recent, duration: 909 days (2.5 years)
• can you imagine going into work five days / week for 2 1/2 years watching a drone orbit?
• or ten years doing the same thing but with two different drones?
  
• next launch date: December 7, 2023 (what day "will live in infamy"?); first time the X-37B to be launched on Elon Musk's SpaceX's Heavy Falcon

Covid: a new highly contagious COVID-19 variant, HV.1, is now the dominant strain in the U.S.

• OMG: a "new highly contagious COVID-19 variant, HV.1" -- that's the way USA Today is reporting it;
• #2: EG.5 --> Eris (not to be confused with Taylor Swift's "Eras" tour.
  

Nvidia: old Nvidia GPU deciphered Greco-Roman scroll;

Market: looking good tonight, but tomorrow could be a different story. Later: futures starting to fall.

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Elf On A Shelf Is So Yesterday

Mensch on a bench. 

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A Musical Interlude

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9 

Phil Spector.

Bat Cave -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46037BATCAVE.

Wow, what a perfect day. 

I'm in my "man cave" -- the Bat Cave -- that Sophia and I share. It's quite incredible. We converted one of our single car garages into a Bat Cave. Coincidentally, and completely unplanned, the Spectrum server reaches the first floor garage from our second floor apartment, and so we have wi-fi connectivity in the Bat Cave. It is truly awesome.

I'm watching the Dallas Cowboys (Hulu -- Fox NFL), listening to Lana Del Rey in the background, and working on the laptop.

Wow, it's easy to forget how good Lana Del Rey is until one listens to her again. 

Lunch: pickled herring, a small bit of bourbon. 

The garage door is open; the weather is perfect (65°F, overcast, no wind). 

To my right -- the workbench needs to be cleaned up -- we did a lot of work in the Bat Cave today and used the workbench for temporary storage -- LOL: 

A South Korean couple -- husband / wife -- probably in their early 30's -- one an instructor pilot at DFW, the other an engineer -- have been our neighbors for quite some time -- I think the American concept of a "man cave" was quite foreign to him. LOL.   

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Bruce en la Chaqueta de Manger Insurance de Williston, ND. 

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Re-Fueling

I can't remember from where we were flying but it was probably from somewhere in Germany.

My usual position was the right seat in the F-111 (in the photo to the left) but this particular day I was prone in the back of a KC-135 re-fueling USAF a/c. These two photos were definitely taken on different days. Refueling an SR-71 (photo to the right) was a huge event -- and this was the only time I was so lucky. Wow, what a great life.

Obviously not possible, but it seems every day in the USAF for 30 years and a day holds a special memory for me. Any young high school graduate who has no clear plans should consider at least a four-year stint in the military. 

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Atomic

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8  

Lana Del Rey

AAPL -- Apple -- Re-Cap -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46036AAPL.

AAPL: I completely missed it. AAPL had an incredible day at the end of the week — trending toward an all-time high — and with 4Q23 earnings behind it, nothing but tailwinds. Except for one thing and all investors are aware.

One day:

But the big story? Look where AAPL is trading -- near its all-time high. And a year ago, AAPL was trading at $134. 

Most of this gain has been during the last twenty years, and the huge gain has been post-Covid-19.

I've been posting this for quite some time:

Apple, a $3-trillion-market cap company. Right, wrong, indifferent, I break it down this way:

• $1 trillion: hardware with integrated software, e.g., iPhones, laptops, desktops
• $1 trillion: services, e.g., cloud services; TV+; music; Siri;
• $1 trillion: Apple Silicon, the chip division.

CNBC truly did its listeners a disservice when they reported Apple's earnings. They gave Berkshire / Warren Buffet a pass of course, but failed to look a bit deeper into Apple's 4Q23 earnings. In fact, they were spectacular and "everybody" missed it ... until they researched it themselves. 

This graphic, I'm pretty sure, has never been shown on CNBC. Link here: 

Apple and tech earnings, link here:

P/Es, link here:

 Probably the best post-4Q23 analysis, link here.

If China scares you, Apple has pivoted to India.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  

Wow, How Long Has It Been We've Had A Musical Interlude? November 12, 2023

Locator: 46035LANA.

Lana Del Rey. 

CLR's Nine North Tarentaise Wells -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46034TARENTAISE. 

The maps:

The Enerplus NASCAR Pads -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46033ENERPLUS. 

The Enerplus NASCAR pad:

• 39344, conf, Enerplus, Pitstop 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,
• 39343, conf, Enerplus, Rally 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,
• 39342, conf, Enerplus, Sprint 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,
• 39341, conf, Enerplus, Stock 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork,
• 39340, conf, Enerplus, Cushion 148-93-04A-09H-LL, South Fork, 

Existing wells:

• 18103, 915, Enerplus / Zenergy, Look Out Ridge 4-31H, South Fork, t4/21; cum 246K 5/23; off line;
• 17667, 915, Enerplus / Peak North Dakota, Woman Creek  4-11H, South Fork, t4/09; cum 151K 4/23; off line;

 

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46032B. 

The wells:

• 39775, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2, Elm Tree, NPD,
• 39080, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-9, Alger, NPD,
• 39776, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2, Elm Tree, NPD,
• 39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1, Elm Tree, NPD, 
• 39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL, Elm Tree, NPD,
• 39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8, Alger, NPD,
• 23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94, has been producing since 2/2013; why is it back on confidential? 
• last sundry form received January 11, 2022; transfer of operator from Bruin to Enerplus, 6/21/21; stripper well status; OXY /  Lime Rock Resources; drilled by OXY, spud 11/14/2012; a south lateral middle Bakken well; completed 2/1/2013; 21 stages; 1.3 million lbs; IP of 56 bbls;
• 39837, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 9-18HSL2, Elm Tree, NPD,
• 39586, conf, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HI, Van Hook,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	6531	4234

• 39852, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 5-20H, Little Knife, NPD,
• 39078, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-7, Alger,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	13325	8004
8-2023	16538	11850
7-2023	13911	7203
6-2023	5271	6056
5-2023	10793	6354

• 39322, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-23 4B, Todd (city of Williston),

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	26899	23124
8-2023	24781	18429
7-2023	21981	18969
6-2023	20450	0
5-2023	13809	11644

• 37325, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 6-19H, Little Knife, NPD,
• 39704, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 2B, Deep Water Creek Bay, NPD,
• 39420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Ty Webb 148-103-1A-12-4H, Sheep Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	7922	6453

• 38116, conf, Enerplus, Right 148-93-05D-06H-LL, McGregory Buttes,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	15231	13520
8-2023	19481	17545
7-2023	16923	15826
6-2023	16635	13822
5-2023	14502	11966

• 39705, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 3B, Deep Water Creek Bay, NPD,
• 39419, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-3H, Moline, NPD,
• 39077, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-6, Alger, NPD,
• 37326, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 5-19H, Little Knife, NPD,

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Others of interest

• 39344, conf, Enerplus, Pitstop 148-93-04A-09H, South Fork, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2023	28494	23081
8-2023	9860	4942

• 39332, drl/drl, CLR, Arthur 10-12H, Little Knife, 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 39442, A/F, Kraken, Orbit 14-13-12 5H, Burg,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	21743	21607	69184	19673	9184	10240
BAKKEN	8-2023	22	9833	9702	63320	8626	3596	4840

In passing: 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- Big Week For CLR -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46031B. 

Wednesday, November 22, 2023: 128 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 698 for the year
39775, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,
39080, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-9,

Tuesday, November 21, 2023: 126 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 696 for the year
39776, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,

Monday, November 20, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 19, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1,

Saturday, November 18, 2023: 124 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 694 for the year
39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL,
39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8,
23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94,

Friday, November 17, 2023: 121 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 691 for the year
39837, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 9-18HSL2,

Thursday, November 16, 2023: 120 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 690 for the year
39586, conf, WPX, Spotted Rabbit 14-23HI,

Wednesday, November 15, 2023: 119 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 689 for the year
39852, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Hovden Federal 5-20H,

Tuesday, November 14, 2023: 118 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 688 for the year
None.

Monday, November 13, 2023: 118 for the month; 118 for the quarter, 688 for the year
39078, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-7,
39322, conf, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-23 4B,
37325, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 6-19H,

Sunday, November 12, 2023: 115 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 685 for the year
39704, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 2B,
39420, conf, Petro-Hunt, Ty Webb 148-103-1A-12-4H,
38116, conf, Enerplus, Right 148-93-05D-06H-LL,

Saturday, November 11, 2023: 112 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 682 for the year
39705, conf, Oasis, MHA Moose 5090 43-7 3B,
39419, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dean Wormer 149-102-33D-28-3H,
39077, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-6,
37326, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Porcupine 5-19H,

The Graphics -- As Promised -- November 12, 2023

Locator: 46030INV. 

AAPL: I completely missed it. AAPL had an incredible day at the end of the week — trending toward an all-time high — and with 4Q23 earnings behind it, nothing but tailwinds. Except for one thing and all investors are aware.

Broadcom: wow. Along with WMT and MSFT, hit new highs. BRK-B? Down.

Broadcom: the $69-billion deal with VMware deal delayed by China. Deadline: November 30. Xi visits Biden November 15.

Headlines — November 12, 2023

Locator: 46029HEADLINES. 

Devon earnings: Rigzone.

Record grain production: global warming, folks.

US crude oil production: new records.

Saudi Arabia crude oil direct consumption vs exports: Jodi.

Renewable stocks have collapsed: what next? And here at The WSJ.

Renting vs buying: cost analysis.

Stocks: FOMO is back. Leading story today over ar The WSJ. 

Chipotle’s founder moves on: no meat, more automation.

NVDA; the cloud. China saw it coming. Zacks. Wells Fargo. Arms race — pun intended. Reports November 21, 2023.

TSLA: America’s biggest pension fund bets on Tesla.

Taylor Swift: not clickbait. Wow. Buenos Aires? Bueno.

AAPL: I completely missed it. AAPL had an incredible day at the end of the week — trending toward an all-time high — and with 4Q23 earnings behind it, nothing but tailwinds. Except for one thing and all investors are aware.

Broadcom: wow. Along with WMT and MSFT, hit new highs. BRK-B? Down. We’ll post the graphics later. 

Broadcom: the $69-billion deal with VMware deal delayed by China. Deadline: November 30. Xi visits Biden November 15.

Oregon and drugs: too late. That fentanyl train has left the station.

Ketamine: clickbait.

Lisa: YouTube documentary.

Reagan: the Ticketmaster story. With a Swiftie connection.

California City, California: wiki. The state’s third “largest” city.

Oregon health director: fourth in about a year.  

Dr. Sejal Hathi will take the reins at the Oregon Health Authority in January, becoming the agency's fourth leader in about a year. Hathi has incredible credentials. Good for her; I’m impressed. 

The state hasn’t reported a Covid-19 case or death in six months. The state of Washington with also incredibly low Covid rates. Minnesota? A fair number of Covid-19-related deaths but very few new cases.

Dr Sejal Hathi

Prior to Oregon, she was New Jersey’s deputy for state health. Prior to New Jersey, she was the White House’s senior policy advisor for public health, which includes public health preparedness, the medical supply chain and climate health policy.

A board-certified internal medicine physician, Hathi has been an assistant professor on the faculty of Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health.

In 2013, Hathi was appointed to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s expert advisory group on women’s and children’s health, tasked with evaluating the global progress against maternal and child mortality.

Hathi received her medical degree and master’s of business administration from Stanford University. She received a bachelor’s degree with honors in molecular biology from Yale University.

She trained in internal medicine and primary care at Massachusetts General Hospital while also serving on the faculty of Harvard Medical School. During her residency, she cared for COVID-19 patients.

She grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area with parents of Indian origin from Uganda and Tanzania, according to a Daisy and Paul and Daisy Soros Fellowship for New Americans, which she won in 2013. She grappled with anorexia when she was young that prompted her to create a nonprofit at the age of 15, called Girls Helping Girls, that spurred a worldwide movement.

DEVON

Story:

Devon Energy Corp. posted a net income of $920 million for the third quarter, rising some 31.8 percent over the previous quarter this year.

The company said in a media release that its average daily production went up eight percent year over year.

However, looking at the net earnings of $1.89 billion for the third quarter of 2022, the company’s profit more than halved.

“This growth was highlighted by production per share increasing 10 percent over the past year and we more than doubled our free cash flow during the quarter, reaching our highest level ...

“Looking ahead to 2024, we plan to refine our capital allocation by further concentrating investment in the Delaware Basin”, Muncrief commented. “By shifting more capital to the core of this world-class basin and high-grading activity across our diversified portfolio ...

Production averaged 665,000 barrels of oil equivalent barrels per day (boepd) in the third quarter, representing an increase of eight percent year over year. This result was one percent below midpoint expectations due to select well performance in the Williston Basin and temporary constraints in the Delaware Basin. Oil totaled 321,000 barrels per day in the quarter, which was 48 percent of total volumes.

In the third quarter, the company said it took steps to strengthen its financial position by retiring $242 million of outstanding debt. The company also increased its cash on hand by $273 million in the quarter to a total of $761 million. Outstanding debt declined to $6.2 billion and the company’s net debt-to-EBITDAX ratio was 0.7 times.

Capital spending excluding acquisitions totaled $896 million in the third quarter, a 12 percent decrease from the previous quarter. The decline in capital was driven by the timing of completions in the Delaware Basin, where the company temporarily reduced activity to three completion crews for the second half of the year.

Looking ahead, Devon expects its fourth quarter capital to range from $870 million to $930 million. With this level of investment, the company expects to bring online around 100 gross operated wells during the quarter. Fourth-quarter production is expected to range from 640,000 to 660,000 boepd, with oil production approximating 315,000 barrels per day. 

This decrease in production from the third quarter is driven by declines in the Williston Basin and timing of completions in the Delaware Basin.

In 2024, the company plans to sustain oil production at around 315,000 barrels per day, with total volumes approximating 650,000 boepd. Capital requirements are expected to decline approximately 10 percent from 2023 levels to a range of $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion. 

This program is estimated to be funded at pricing levels below $40 per barrel.

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