Memo to Saudi: Active Rigs In North Dakota -- Back To 190 -- December 3, 2014

http://www.karmatube.org/videos.php?id=1312

Active rigs:

	12/3/2014	12/03/2013	12/03/2012	12/03/2011	12/03/2010
Active Rigs	190	193	182	199	164

Maybe it'll all be alright, ma, maybe it'll all be okay, well, ...

Look What They've Done To My Song, Melanie Safka

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Extreme Weather

Being tweeted now:  Sacramento, CA, receives daily record of 2.25 inches of rain; old record was 1.39 inches in 1994 - @breakingweather.

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Re-Post

It's a pdf from Platts sent by a reader: http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/InsightAnalysis/IndustrySolutionPapers/special-report-bakken-the-king-of-the-north.pdf. A huge "thank you" to this particular reader for some really good links/comments over the years. 

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A Note to the Granddaughters

It's going to be a long night. It's 11:30 p.m. and I'm wide awake, listening to some of the best music ever posted (http://youtubefugue.blogspot.com/). LOL. I hope it's still there thirty years from now.  

The highlight of the day for me is walking to the school every afternoon to pick up the older granddaughter to walk her home. She could easily walk home on her own, and in fact, her mother suggested that, but it turns out, she enjoys seeing me after school. It's a short walk but it's a great opportunity to have some nice conversations and some time alone. It's the number one reason why I don't return to the Bakken more often; it's very, very difficult to leave here and to leave her.

Often when I start the walk, I marvel at the uniqueness of the earth. Carl Sagan and others posit there are a gazillion planets in the universe with intelligent life; that may be true, but, if so, none are located anywhere near us. The earth really is unique. We can't even find a planet with even the most basic life forms, much less intelligent life. There seems to be a huge gap between the earth and what else is out there -- most of the other stuff is barren rock, or dirty snow, at best.

Somewhere in the house is a most fascinating book, A Privileged Planet, Guillermo Gonzalez and Jay Richards, c. 2004, on this very subject. I see the book is "temporarily out of stock," something not often seen, over at Amazon.com.

GOP Looking To Raise Tax On Investors -- SeekingAlpha -- December 3, 2014

Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.  

Seeking Alpha is reporting:

• Congressman Paul Ryan has indicated that specialized tax structures need to be changed in order to make the tax system more fair.
• The target is clearly Master Limited Partnerships and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
• The president and Congress are in agreement on certain changes in tax laws, and this brings risk to MLPs. 

*****************************

The Insane Germans

Read this old post first from which this was taken: 

Germany accounts for 2.4% of all the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. A lot of pain for making absolutely no difference. And now it seems, they don't even feel good about it.

Now, read the article posted by Reuters today:

Germany's cabinet approved a new plan on Wednesday to slash CO2 emissions in order to meet its ambitious climate targets, but environmental groups criticised the government for not going further in reducing its reliance on coal-fired power plants.

The package, which includes an energy efficiency programme that could trigger billions of euros in investment, is essential if Germany is to hit its goal of a 40 percent drop in emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels. The broader EU is aiming to cut emissions by the same amount by 2030.

This is absolutely insane. Right now, Germany's CO2 contribution to the global atmosphere is about 2.4%.

Recently, President Obama negotiated a hard-fought deal with China to allow the Chinese to keep on increasing their CO2 emissions through 2025 (or longer, if deemed necessary). So, even if Germany does nothing new, their CO2 emissions will drop on a percentage basis, no doubt to less than 1%. But now the country embarks on economic suicide for reasons unknown.

Wednesday Night, December 3, 2014

****************************
Another ObamaCare "Gotcha"

This is actually pretty clever; I did not see this one coming.

There must be at least a dozen telephone carriers with whom I can contract for cellular service, including Verizon, ATT, Sprint, several regional carriers, and probably even over the internet (TimeWarner or Dish) if I was that clever. But I contracted with Sprint twenty (20) years ago and never switched. I still use Sprint.

We have two options for internet and television here in the DFW area: TimeWarner and Dish (there may be others; I'm not aware). I signed up with TimeWarner when I got here, the same carrier I had had for 13 years in San Antonio. I will probably stay with TimeWarner forever; I don't even look at Dish offers.

In Texas, electric utilities are de-regulated; consumers can switch utilities willy-nilly every month if they want. I have been with one utility since I arrived and have no plans to switch.

It turns out that consumers of health care insurance share the same behavior. Even though there is an annual "open season," very few consumers switch health care once they have a policy. Sure, they have to re-enroll, but usually they just get a note (electronic or snail mail) that says they are automatically re-enrolled if they do nothing. 

Now the TimeWarner/Dish -- Verizon/ATT/Sprint -- Texas utility -- creepiness. Yes, you guessed it. The health care insurers can (and will) raise premiums knowing quite well (or is it, "full well"?) that 97% of consumers won't shop around during "open season."

Not shopping around will cost them big bucks. Where's this story? In the week's issue of The New Yorker, editorially very, very much in favor of Obama's programs. I did not see this article in any of the conservative media yet. 

****************************

Global Warming

Extreme Weather

Media Spin

Ice Age Now

These are always fun. Forbes headline: Media Go Into Panic On How To Spin Record Cold

The liberal media are going into panic mode attempting to salvage their precious global warming crisis as yet another record cold winter takes shape across the country. 

Desperately hoping to purge the public’s memory of failed predictions of warm, snowless winters, the media are now going into overdrive trying to claim global warming theory predicted colder and snowier winters all along. 

The shameless effort to spin this year’s cold, early winter as the predicted result of global warming is typified by a media request sent out by International Business Times journalist Connor Sheets. On November 19 Sheets sent out the following solicitation:

 “I’m working on a story that would help explain why climate change not only contributes to global warming but also the extreme weather events we are seeing already this November. I’d like to look at how the greenhouse effect plays into this, why global warming doesn’t preclude super-cold and snowy winters, and more. Beyond that, I would like to look at the polar vortex and its impacts. El Nino if it applies, lake effect snow and other weather and climate trends and dynamics that play into this discussion.”

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Michael Savage Is Right On This One

The video says it all. New York's finest. Father of six selling illegal tobacco cigarettes on the street. Dead.

Story at NY Daily News. Let's see how NYC handles this, after all the liberal East Coast/NYC opining/reporting on the Ferguson case. What goes around, comes around.

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At Least It's Hard To Catch

A U.S. healthcare worker who had been in West Africa and may have been exposed to the Ebola virus is being transferred to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, a hospital spokeswoman said on Wednesday. -- Reuters

Reason #5 Why I Love To Blog -- The Amber Renee; Permitted For Re-Entry -- December 3, 2014

 Locator: 100100AMBER.

 

Updates

September 28, 2023: these great wells are coming off line. See this note.

March 16, 2022: hallelujah! Murex finally reporting the Amber Renee as a completed DUC. More to follow.

• 36887, 448, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 71K 1/22. Total depth, 20,272 feet. Frack: 47 stages; 10.25 million lbs proppants.
• spud date: October 1, 2019
• cease drilling: October 30, 2019
• curve completed overnight in about twelve hours
• lateral drilling began in the afternoon on October 26, 2019; TD in the afternoon on October 30, 2019 (four days); completed in two runs. The second run from 18,312' to 20,272'.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	10147	10147	689	20219	19816	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	10887	11087	870	21382	19875	1104
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	11255	11255	1064	19430	17960	1080
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	13372	13472	1378	21344	19666	1275
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	13075	13136	2282	17713	10699	6624
BAKKEN	8-2021	30	12650	12289	3328	15589	14631	568

March 16, 2022: So, what about the Sophia Drake?

• 36888, 458, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-4, Sanish, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 281K 1/22; more to follow. Frack: 48 stages; 10.05 million lbs proppant.
  
• spud date: September 28, 2019
• cease drilling: October 22, 2019
• the curve took almost 24 hours to complete
• lateral began at around noon, October 18, 2019; TD reached about dinner time on October 22, 2019; only 4.5 days; completed in one run. 
  
• initial production:
  

BAKKEN	4-2021	30	19657	19384	811	22839	22449	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	20687	21642	21250	21194	21194	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	19229	19204	1114	19558	19558	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	22568	22162	1570	21984	21984	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	21890	22135	2810	20156	20156	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	21568	21153	3861	13823	13823	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	10	5559	4447	2952	2054	1924	0

March 16, 2022: other wells of interest near Sophia Drake and Amber Renee:

• 16839, total depth, 13,719 feet; cum 557K 1/22;  nice jump in production; see full production profile here;
  
• 17263, total depth, 19, 230 feet; cum 1.209 million bbls; 1/22; perhaps a small halo effect; see full production profile here.
  

August 24, 2019: I've seen the "R" in permits mean different things to different folks, to include, "revised" and "re-enter." In this case the Sophia Drake was never spud, and the Amber Renee was a great well until it was taken off line. Now, the Sophia Drake (with a slightly new name, and a new permit) will be drilled; and, a "different" / "new" Amber Renee will be drilled, see graphic:

July 2, 2016: update. Why the Amber Renee is on TA status. 
 

Original Post

 

With a long post like this, there may be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

I don't own any minerals in the Bakken. One well means nothing more to me than any other well except for the specifics about the well. But I do have to say that there are a few wells in the Bakken, that for whatever reason, "stick out" for me. The "Amber Renee" well is one such well.

First, I like the name. Amber Renee. A perfect name for a young woman and/or a Bakken well. On the other hand, not a good name for a Kentucky Derby thoroughbred. For the latter, a better name, Runstowin.

Second, the Amber Renee got my attention when after producing about 800,000 bbls of oil, the operator shut it down. That gets my attention.

But now this. In the December 3, 2014, daily activity report, Murex has indicated that it wants to re-enter the well:

PERMITTED FOR RE-ENTRY:
#18408 - MUREX PETROLEUM CORPORATION, AMBER RENEE 25-36H, NWNW 25-154N-91W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 250' FNL and 510' FWL, DEVELOPMENT, SANISH, API #33-061-01156

When you look at the scout ticket below, note:

• IP
• total production to date
• "F" -- no indication this well has been put on a pump (but sometimes there are reporting errors)
• how very, very little water has been produced; great expense for wells with lots of water to be disposed
• the monthly production of this well when it was taken off-line

*******************************************

As noted above, I've enjoyed following this well. Here are the previous posts regarding this well:

From June 19, 2014:

Back on line:

• 18408, 1,945,  Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish; one mile to the west of the Chandler James; t2/10; F; 821K 12/13 -- 661K in first two years; no pump; still 9K/month 1/13; IA 1/14; now back on line apparently (shown as "A" but still no new production except a bit of natural gas sold in 4/14); on January 27, 2016, I noted this well was now "AB" -- abandoned;

From March 30, 2014:

In the Sanish, Murex has taken the Amber Renee off-line (as of January, 2014). It is now listed as "inactive." Could it be related to activity planned for the Jacob Daniel well south of the Amber Renee? Right now I don't see any other activity on the GIS map server.

[For some background to Murex, a reader noted that the company was featured in a Forum article some years ago. I remember that article and have it linked elsewhere on the blog. Here is the original story.]

The Amber Renee is a huge well. It was spud December 21, 2009, and drilling stopped on January 12, 2010. A frac tree was installed in May, 2010. It looks like it was fracked with 14 perforations and with slightly less than 900,000 lbs of sand. It was tested February 27, 2010, with an IP of 1,945. With a TD of 16,000 feet it extended slightly longer than a short lateral (but was planned as a long lateral based on a 1280-acre drilling unit) in the Sanish. A marked increase in gas (10,000+ units) was noted in the lateral. Interpretation of other data suggested a natural fracture. At 16,050 feet there were indications that there might be communication with a neighboring well (Jacob Daniel 25-36H, now Jacob Daniel 25-36H-RE (#16839), a short lateral) and the drilling was stopped.

• 18408, 1,945, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H, t2/10; cum 821K 8/14;

From April 15, 2013: 

The Amber Renee well was completed/tested almost exactly three years ago. It has produced about 750,000 bbls in those three years. It is still producing about 10,000 bbls/month, and is not on a pump (based on the scout ticket)

• 18408, 1,945,  Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish, one mile to the west of the Chandler James; s12/09; t2/10; F ; "long" lateral; cum 750K 2/13; 

This well is considered a "long lateral" but, in fact, is quite short, barely extending in to the second section;  the Chandler James is in the same section, running parallel to Amber Renee, but is a "full" long lateral.

From August 1, 2011:

18408, 1,945, Amber Renee 25-36H, was spudded December 21, 2009. It still is producing 30- to 35,000 bbls/months. As of June 30, 2011, Amber Renee had produced 476K bbls of oil (at $50/bbl = $24 million). I believe the Amber Renee was a 14-stage frac.

From February 21, 2011:

18408, 1,945, Amber Renee 25-36H, was spudded December 21, 2009. It still is producing 30- to 35,000 bbls/months. As of 5/13, Amber Renee had produced 777K bbls of oil (at $50/bbl = $24 million).

From "Things To Follow Up On":

18408: flowing, no pump; ever fracked? In same section as 17263. As of October 25, 2014, no frack data in file; sundry form scanned in but no frack data.  Also, 17500: no frack data and no explanation why well taken off-line recently. Sister well #18912 was taken off line in 2014 at same time #17500 taken off-line.

 ***********************************************

In one of the entries above, it was noted that the Amber Renee might have been interfering with the Jacob Daniel. From the GIS map server, note the Amber Renee (#18404) to the northwest; Chandler James to the northeast; and, Jacob Daniel to the south:

************************************************

The scout ticket with the production profile only since March, 2013:

NDIC File No: 18408    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: IA     Status Date: 2/25/2010     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 25-154-91      Latitude: 48.138199     Longitude: -102.329314
Current Operator: MUREX PETROLEUM CORPORATION
Current Well Name: AMBER RENEE 25-36H
Total Depth: 16050     Field: SANISH
Spud Date(s):  12/21/2009
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Comp: 2/25/2010     Status: F     Date: 2/27/2010     Spacing: 2SEC
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: LOC     Date: 12/3/2014
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 821537     Cum MCF Gas: 573256     Cum Water: 6856
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 2/27/2010     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1945     IP MCF: 230     IP Water: 0

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	2	51	133	0	61	0	53
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	167	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	30	307	272	5	449	403	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	6697	6702	57	9874	9874	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	6994	6999	52	14292	14292	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	6799	6809	52	10402	10402	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	7512	7555	55	11286	10919	367
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	7971	8001	67	11733	11733	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	8148	8333	62	11581	11581	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	8299	8196	68	12270	12270	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	9058	9173	105	12578	12578	0

But there is more to the story. Below is the production profile of the Jacob Daniel well in late, 2009, through late, 2010 (see if you spot the obvious).

The Jacob Daniel (during the period the Amber Renee was fracked):

BAKKEN	9-2010	30	8635	8713	126	4391	4391	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	9049	9220	441	3744	3744	0
BAKKEN	7-2010	15	3102	2382	1473	1692	1692	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	8	60	0	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	5-2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2010	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2010	31	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2010	1	7	225	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	1-2010	14	844	913	0	370	370	0
BAKKEN	12-2009	31	5129	5715	0	2889	2889	0
BAKKEN	11-2009	30	5297	5338	0	3072	3072	0

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But there is even more to the story. There is a third well in that section, the Chandler James. This is the production profile of the Chandler James around this same period of time:

BAKKEN	5-2010	31	12199	11575	74	6068	6068	0
BAKKEN	4-2010	30	18751	18925	67	9592	9592	0
BAKKEN	3-2010	31	21395	22002	67	9335	9335	0
BAKKEN	2-2010	28	20769	20563	50	10242	10242	0
BAKKEN	1-2010	31	18396	18575	23	9085	9085	0
BAKKEN	12-2009	23	20106	19617	57	10859	10859	0
BAKKEN	11-2009	29	22025	22961	66	12131	12131	0
BAKKEN	10-2009	31	37584	37274	138	21062	21062	0
BAKKEN	9-2009	30	38330	38627	293	22059	22059	0

***************************************

For the rest of the discussion, I am going to assume that:

• the Amber Renee was completed/fracked/tested in late February, 2010
• the two other wells in this section (Jacob Daniel and Chandler James) were NOT re-fracked or re-worked during this same period of time
• that there would be little reason for the operator to manipulate production during this period of time

With those assumptions, there are two observations resulting in two conclusions (one "firm" and one "maybe, but it's a stretch."

The first observation and first conclusion: Note that the Amber Renee was fracked in February. The horizontal to the south (Jacob Daniel), coming close to the Amber Renee, was taken off-line during that time period. When it came back on line, its production jumped significantly, from 5,000 bbls/month to 9,000 bbls/month. If the assumptions are correct, it's hard not to conclude that fracking the Amber Renee did not affect the Jacob Daniel, at least for a short period of time (double negatives, but I think you understand what I'm trying to say).

The second observation: the third well in that section, the phenomenal Chandler James, parallels the Amber Renee but is much farther way than the Jacob Daniel. The Chandler James was not taken off-line during the time period when the Amber Renee was fracked. Look closely at the production profile of the Chandler James prior to February, 2010, before the Amber Renee was fracked -- almost a typical "Bakken" decline, starting September, 2009, at 38.3K; then to 37.6K the following month; then 22.0K; then 20.1K, and finally 18.4K in January.

Interestingly enough, there was a jump in the following month, the month that the Amber Renee was fracked. The Chandler James went from 18.4K in January, 2010, to 20.8K in February, and and an even bigger increase the following month to 21.4K before starting to taper.

If the assumptions are correct, it's hard to argue that fracking the Amber Renee had not effect on the Chandler James.

The second conclusion: "maybe, but I think it's a stretch." The two parallel horizontals are so far away it's hard to believe fracking the one had an effect on the other. So, I won't argue with folks who suggest that my assumptions are wrong, or that it's simply an anomaly, a not unusual variation in monthly production in the oil patch. But it is interesting.

By the way, this whole discussion has huge implications if the slump in the price of oil persists for two years.

The Long View -- December 3, 2014; North Dakota Crude Selling Below $50 At The Well-Head

Top story right now over at Yahoo!Finance: North Dakota oil sold for under $50 on November 28, 2014. Bloomberg is reporting:

Oil market analysts are debating if oil will fall to $50. In North Dakota, prices are already there.

Crude sold at the wellhead in the Bakken shale region in North Dakota fell to $49.69 a barrel on Nov. 28, according to the marketing arm of Plains All America (PAA) Pipeline LP. That's down 47 percent from this year's peak in June, and 29 percent less than the $70.15 paid for Brent, the global benchmark.

*********************************

Crude Oil -- US

US crude oil stocks declined slightly week-over-week (dynamic link), in millions of bbls, rounded:

• 11/28/14: 379
• 11/21/14: 383
• 11/14/14: 381

A single swallow doesn't make a summer.

*********************************

Remember: This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

A reader sent me the link. From the press release:

Kinder Morgan, Inc. today announced its preliminary 2015 financial projections. KMI expects to declare dividends of $2.00 per share for 2015, an approximately 16 percent increase over the 2014 dividend budget of $1.72 per share.

Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder stated, “We believe the recently closed transaction merging the Kinder Morgan companies paves the way for superior growth at KMI for years to come. We anticipate strong growth in 2015 across our pipeline and storage businesses and currently have a backlog of approximately $18 billion in expansion projects and joint venture investments that have a high certainty of completion. We are generating strong growth even though we have revised our projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to $70 per barrel. As our track record demonstrates, we own and operate a large, diversified portfolio of stable, primarily fee-based energy assets across North America which produce substantial cash flow in virtually all types of market conditions, regardless of commodity prices.” 

This certainly suggests to me that CEOs who have been in the oil and gas business for many decades are taking the long view on the current price of oil.

By they way, XOM CEO suggested the same thing. MarketWatch is reporting:

Exxon Mobil Corp. has tested the profitability of its oil plays against crude-oil prices as low as $40 a barrel and as high as $120 a barrel. 

Exxon makes decades-long investment decisions, and its exploration and production projects have been tested to accomodate price swings, Tillerson said. 

Shares of Exxon rose on Wednesday, and crude-oil futures also gained after a weekly supply report showed a surprise decline in inventories. Crude futures have plunged in recent sessions after OPEC dashed hopes of an output cut that would help boost oil prices, which have fallen nearly 40% since June.

********************************

ObamaCare

The Los Angeles Times headline asked the right question (whether ObamaCare destroyed the Democratic Party), but this long-time Obama apologist never answered the question; he completely avoided the obvious answer. He sure spent a lot of time bad-mouthing his party, blaming the messenger, not the message. He said the messenger failed to deliver the message.

As Shakespeare would say, this guy protesteth too much. Two facts he conveniently left out.

• the author mentions the Koch brothers, etc, lying about ObamaCare; in fact, Obama has the entire mainstream media on his side (CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, and the list goes on); "comparing" the Koch brothers to the entire mainstream media is a bit much
• the writer fails to mention that most of ObamaCare has been delayed, deferred, or waived until 2015, or 2016, and so folks have not yet experienced the brunt of this trainwreck

The facts of ObamaCare are pretty much well known: the high premiums, the higher deductibles, and the fact that men now have breast cancer protection.

Even the unions don't like ObamaCare but I think they have a waiver; if not, ObamaCare won't kick in until 2015 or 2016 for them. I could be wrong on that but I certainly have not read any news stories to suggest otherwise.

The really interesting story regarding this article: it sure took a long time for an Obama apologist to come up with a response to Schumer's Silly Speech.

I don't know if ObamaCare destroyed the Democratic Party, but the shellacking the party got in the most recent mid-terms certainly suggests Americans had plenty of time to think about ObamaCare.

Five (5) Producing Wells Completed; Ten (10) New Permits -- North Dakota, December 3, 2014

Two three data points:

• North Dakota sweet crude oil sold for slightly less than $50/bbl in late November
• US crude oil stocks declined slightly week-over-week (dynamic link)
• Oklahoma City: first city in the US to have at least a couple of gas stations charging $1.99/gallon of gasoline; seven states on track to do the same; all states will start reporting significantly lower prices -- ABC Nightly News, 5:30 p.m. CT, December 3, 2014

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:

• 25321, 617, WPX, Van Hook R/S 4HC, Van Hook, t8/14; cum 25K 10/14;
• 27708, drl, BR, Haymaker 44-22MBH-B, Elidah, no production data,
• 28217, drl, XTO, Rieckhoff 21X-3B, North Tobacco Garden, no production data,
• 28509, drl, Statoil, Judy 22-15 6TFH, East Fork, no production data,

***********************************

25321, see below, WPX, Van Hook R/S 4HC, Van Hook, see above:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2014	8092	4488
9-2014	8500	4449
8-2014	8750	4181

***********************************  

Permitted for re-entry (see more at this post):
18408, as, Murex, Amber Renee 25-26H,

Ten (10) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (5), MRO (5), Oasis
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Antelope (Mountrail)
• Comments: Oasis had a permit for a SWD well

Five (5) producing wells completed:

• 26983, 1,012, Hess, HA-Nelson-152-95-3328H-6, Hawkeye, t10/14; cum 19K 10/14;
• 27541, 1,168, Petro-Hunt, Anderson 152-96-23C-24-1HS, Clear Creek, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --
• 27542, 1,398, Petro-Hunt, Anderson 152-96-26B-25-2HS, Clear Creek, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --
• 28384, 1,494, KOG, P Wood 154-98-1-27-35-13H3, Truax, 4 sections, t10/14; cum 5K 10/14;
• 28385, 2,241, KOG, P Wood 154-98-1-27-15-1H3, Truax, t10/14; cum 10K 10/14;

Active rigs:

	12/3/2014	12/03/2013	12/03/2012	12/03/2011	12/03/2010
Active Rigs	189	193	182	199	164

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Sorry for the late start today. For some reason, four of the five wells scheduled to come off the confidential -- data not yet posted -- still listed on the confidential list, with release date of today (a dynamic link).

Active rigs:

	12/3/2014	12/03/2013	12/03/2012	12/03/2011	12/03/2010
Active Rigs	189	193	182	199	164

RBN Energy: announcement for next energy school, Calgary, Canada.

Mike Filloon: most of Oasis' acreage in North Dakota will be uneconomic if oil prices remain low.

The Keystone is dead. I think I've said that for over two years now. Whatever. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

The extensive delays — prompted by the requirement that the U.S. government sign off on the project, since it crosses an international border, and the fierce battle waged by environmentalists to stop that from happening — have driven up the project’s costs. TransCanada says building the Keystone link across Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska would now cost some $8 billion, up from the originally estimated $5.4 billion, with shippers covering much of the additional charges.

Meanwhile, oil prices are plunging, with Saudi Arabia clearly taking aim directly at Canada’s oil sands projects as one of the chief threats to its global market dominance. The so-called sour crude that the Saudis are selling to the U.S., doesn’t compete head-to-head with the light, sweet crude oil produced in Texas and Oklahoma.

Rather, Saudi Arabia has taken aim at making Canadian oil sands output too costly in the American marketplace. That’s why Saudi Arabia has initiated a price war, slashing prices to the U.S. and pressing OPEC to keep production at its current levels.

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JOBS

Expectations: 233,000. Reality: 208,000. MarketWatch is reporting:

Private-sector hiring slowed in November, as employers added 208,000 jobs, ADP reported Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a November gain of 223,000, compared with an originally reported increase of 230,000 in October.

For newbies, remember, these are the "magic numbers" for

• First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
• New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)

We are five, six, seven years into the Obama recovery, and this is the best we can do, 208,000 new jobs?

Remember, less than 200,000 new jobs is consistent with economic stagnation. These numbers were "defined" prior to the Obama administration and have been used at the blog since 2009. Not only is 203,000 bad on the face of it, but:

• we are in the fifth, sixth, or seventh year of recovery
• we have an Obama administration that defined its success by jobs recovery 
• trillions in stimulus; $18 trillion in debt; much of it under Obama administration; nothing to show for it
• holiday season hiring (although, perhaps, seasonal hiring is not included in the ADP number
• analysts expected a much better number

Does Wall Street care? Nope, the gap between Wall Street and Main Street continues to widen -- the Dow is up 31 points, and is trading at new highs. I see the headline story: Wal-Mart sees "perpetual" 2% to 3% growth.

By the way, and I'm rambling: immigration/amnesty is "the key to economic growth" (CEO of Caterpillar) and retailers like Wal-Mart, Dollar Store, McDonalds will continue to grow.

Back to jobs. The story is everywhere. I'm curious how Bloomberg reported this story. Here it is:

Resilient domestic demand, supported in part by falling energy costs, is encouraging employers to add to headcounts even as global economies struggle. Faster wage gains would help provide an added boost to household spending, which makes up almost 70 percent of the economy.

“The labor market is looking pretty good,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Inc. in White Plains, New York, whose projection for a 210,000 gain was among the closest in the Bloomberg survey. “The labor market’s in pretty good health. The only issue really is the hourly earnings numbers, which remain stubbornly depressed.” 

LOL.  This sentence was a non sequitur and says much about the writer:

Faster wage gains would help provide an added boost to household spending, which makes up almost 70 percent of the economy.

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Global Warming

Extreme Weather

Ice Age Now

I guess it depends on where you put your thermometers, and which thermometers you want to "read." For Chicagoans, who read their own thermometers, it's been the coldest winter in 110 years. Eleven decades. Five score and ten years. More than a century. Liberal CBS Chicago local is reporting:

This year has not only been one of the coldest in Chicago, it is also one of the few places on the entire planet that was colder than average this year.

In fact, none of us have never experienced a year as cold as 2014.

The last time the average annual year-to-date temperature was this cold was back in 1904.

According to the Gerontology research group, there is nobody from Illinois born before 1904 that is still living. Nationwide, there are 18 people older than 110 years old.

Perhaps a good reason why not to put the Obama Presidential Library there. Maybe Ferguson.

**************************

Won't Call In the A-Team

Behind in the war on ISIS, the Obama administration remains opposed to calling in the A-Team ("A" for atomic). Thomson Reuters is reporting:

The White House reiterated U.S. policy against cooperating with Iran in the fight against Islamic State on Wednesday in the wake of Iranian air strikes in Iraq.

Doesn't want to get upstaged, I suppose, by yet another JV team in the mideast.