Rambling Notes -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- September 19, 2022

Enjoying Life

Content, content, content: I've never enjoyed "television" so much. With all the streaming and all the options, it's hard to call it "television" any more.

NFL: two games n Monday Night Football now. Tonight, the Buffalo Bills game is incredible. With a few minutes still left in the third quarter the Bills are destroying the Tennessee Titans, 41 - 7.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars. Tea leaves suggest Hulu is setting the gold standard.

• it's no longer "content, content, content"
• it's now all about execution, customer service, pricing
• having said that, the "average" viewer won't switch once decision made 
• the best combo right now: Hulu + Amazon Fire Stick +Amazon Prime Video
• add on Netflex, HBO prn 

Perry Mason: after NFL tonight, I will watch another episode of Perry Mason.

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Energy

WTI: Never has this adage been more true: it's a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.

Poll: I'm too tired tonight to take down the poll, but obviously the poll is over. 

• The Biden administration has announced they will extend the SPR release by ten more days, to get past the mid-terms. Pretty funny.
• this decision by the Biden administration is simply an "insurance policy"
• releasing oil from the SPR is not driving the price of oil down
  

SPR: some one-liners

• the SPR never mattered
• the new SPR is the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken
• spud to production: 30 days if push comes to shove
• how the SPR became "a thing" is beyond me
• all that talk about "the need" to refill is simply that: talk. There is absolutely "no need" to refill the SPR
• whether any administration refills the SPR or not no longer interests me (actually, it never did)

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The Market

I have no idea what the market is doing but I'm hearing through the grapevine, it's not good.

• don't take that out of context; in general I know what's going on but I'm not following it on a daily basis
• I haven't watched CNBC in a long time
• twitter feed suggests Jim Cramer has really lost a lot of credibility; apparently he hasn't been compared to Cathie Wood yet but probably should be

Silver:

• I still need to buy 2022 silver coins

I'm fortunate enough to have a robust revenue stream even in retirement. I invest in two tranches every month: the first and third week each month.

• I don't check the market to see what to buy
• I have a list of companies and when it's time to invest, I simply go down the list, work out the allocation, and buy

My allocation for the past six months: blue chip, 50%; tech, 30%; and, energy, 20%.

• it's incredibly difficult to not increase the energy allocation but I'm so top-heavy in energy ... but ...

My favorite long-term company is still Apple. I have no idea how to classify AAPL now for investment purposes: blue chip or tech.

Indications are that Apple has a winner with its iPhone 14 Pro

• apparently the high-end phones are the ones folks want
• the low-end iPhone 14s are not selling
• high-end = high-margin; low-end=low-margin

Dividends: more and more folks coming around on this issue.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

MRO With One New Permit; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 19, 2022

Active rigs: 46

WTI: $85.65

Natural gas: $7.850

One new permit, #39251:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has a permit for another Bailey oil field well, a Jim Creek USA 34-7H, NENE 18-146-94, 
• to be sited 241 FNL and 1101 FEL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36184, 1,707, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B, Capa, minimal production;
• 38618,  351, Whitiing, Naomi TTT, Sanish, t--; cum 4K over 20 first 20 days;

ISO NE: Something Strange Is Going On -- September 19, 2022

I don't check into ISO NE every day, but I check iin enough to know when something different is happening.

Today is one of those days.

First, today, the wind is not blowing.

Renewable contribution is only 4% -- about as low as it ever gets -- and the proportion of wind contributing to renewables is also about as low as it gets: 9%. Four percent of nine percent = 0.36% -- that's about one-third of one percent. 

Then, look at this: the contribution of nuclear plus natural gas is an astounding 93%. Normally is runs in the high 70s.

And then, this: net imports is a negative. Right now a negative three percent; earlier it was a negative four percent. I don't know what that means. "Negative" in this realm suggests ISO NE is selling some of their electricity, or perhaps, cutting back on some agree-to contracts (whether that can be done or not, I don't know). 

Doesn’t add up to 100%, either.

But 93% contribution by nuclear plus natural gas. Hydro is down to 2% which keeps the price of electricity down.

The graphics:

OPEC Production -- Saudi Arabia Averaging Highest Production In Its History -- September 19, 2022

Link here. In 1000's bopd.

Production, Saudi Arabia:

• 2022: 10,436
• 2021:  9,062
• 2020:  9,182
• 2019:  9,771
• 2018: 10,311
• 2017:  9,954
• 2016: 10,406
• 2015: 10,142
• 2014:  9,688

Now, Being Televised Live -- The Funeral of Queen Elizabeth -- September 19, 2022

Really quite amazing. I went to Hulu, and clicked on the link to the funeral. I did not pay attention to the source.

Surprise, surprise, surprise: Fox News. 

Hulu, a Disney operation directed me to Fox News for this momentous event. Who would have thought?

The news channel was created by Australian-American media mogul Rupert Murdoch, Australian-born American businessman with huge footprint and beginning in the UK. One wonders.
I assume "one" set of cameras that then feed to all other media outlets. A BBC production?

Joe Biden, wide awake, looking very presidential, with his wife at his side, in the cathedral. Really, really quite amazing. 

Wow, those are incredible images of the cathedral, and with the cathedral "full," the venue seems so incredibly small. 

Alfred Hitchcock would have appreciated the cinematography, especially the "shot" from the ceiling of the abbey. 

Not one person wearing a mask (and just like that, Covid-19 is over), and the cathedral is literally standing-room only. One wonders how this would have been "handled," had this taken place in September, 2020. 

Holy mackerel: Harry in a suit, not his military uniform; but he is wearing his medals. 

Wow, wow, wow. Two tours in Afghanistan. His father, King Charles III, and his brother are both in their military uniforms. And, yes, it bothers him if anyone asks. By tradition, Harry is not allowed to wear his military uniform in public after he separated from the service. An exception was made once, in Balmoral a few days ago, where the queen lied in-state before traveling to London.

Wow, huge entourage -- her extended family and her "servants" from all her homes.

Live: mid-morning, Monday.

The clarity of the stream -- the coffin being carried in -- absolutely remarkable. We see more than those actually attending the service. And now, the Scottish bagpipes. 

Queen Elizabeth:

Elizabeth II (Elizabeth Alexandra Mary; 21 April 1926 – 8 September 2022) was Queen of the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth realms from 6 February 1952 until her death in 2022. 

She was queen regnant of 32 sovereign states during her lifetime and 15 at the time of her death.[ 

Her reign of 70 years and 214 days is the longest of any British monarch, the longest recorded of any female head of state in history, and the second-longest verified reign of any sovereign in history (the longest: King Louis XIV, France). 

Elizabeth was born in Mayfair, London, as the first child of the Duke and Duchess of York (later King George VI and Queen Elizabeth). Her father acceded to the throne in 1936 upon the abdication of his brother, King Edward VIII, making Elizabeth the heir presumptive. 

She was educated privately at home and began to undertake public duties during the Second World War, serving in the Auxiliary Territorial Service. In November 1947, she married Philip Mountbatten, a former prince of Greece and Denmark, and their marriage lasted 73 years until his death in April 2021. They had four children: Charles, Anne, Andrew, and Edward.

Archbishop of Canterbury. 

Elizabeth Truss, third to speak. Prime Minister as of September 6, 2022 -- only thirteen days ago. Boris is "fit to be tied," no doubt, as they say. In a way, I assume, the royal family is relieved that two of the more polarizing political figures of the 21st century are not in attendance.  

Among the royal family, it's hard to say who received most video coverage. Of the six, my estimate: Harry (21%); William (20%); Kate (18%); Charles (16%); Camilla (14%); Meghan (11%).

Seeing the live shots of The Westminster Abbey brings back many, many memories. 

I visited Westminster only once, I assume, don't recall, but the "layout" is identical to Ripon Cathedral which I attended often on Friday's evensong and Sunday service when serving at RAF Menwith Hill over the course of four years back in the early 2000s. 

Ripon Cathedral, at one time, I knew this history so well:

The Cathedral Church of St Peter and St Wilfrid, commonly known as Ripon Cathedral, and until 1836 known as Ripon Minster, is a cathedral in Ripon, North Yorkshire, England. 

Founded as a monastery by Scottish monks in the 660s, it was refounded as a Benedictine monastery by St Wilfrid in 672. 

The church became collegiate in the tenth century, and acted as a mother church within the large Diocese of York for the remainder of the Middle Ages. The present church is the fourth, and was built between the 13th and 16th centuries. 

In 1836 the church became the cathedral for the Diocese of Ripon. 

In 2014 the Diocese was incorporated into the new Diocese of Leeds, and the church became one of three co-equal cathedrals of the Bishop of Leeds. 

The cathedral is notable architecturally for its gothic west front in the Early English style, considered one of the best of its type, as well as the Geometric east window. The seventh-century crypt of Wilfrid's church is a significant example of early Christian architecture in England. 

The cathedral has Grade I listed building status. 

My environs -- North Yorkshire -- that affected my life more than anyone will ever know. 

Supermajors' Reserves -- September 19, 2022

A graphic I find useless, but interesting nonetheless. Link here.

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Top 100 Music Albums

I can't recall if I've already posted this. Whatever. Link here.

#5: Joni Mitchell, Blue
#4: The Clash, London Calling
#3: The Beatles, Abbey Road
#2: Fleetwood Mac, Rumours
#1: Prince & The Revolution, Purple Rain

"Under-Investment" -- They're Reading The Blog -- September 19, 2022

Before we get started: hurricane update:

• Fiona will hit the usual Caribbean islands, but will miss US landfall by a large margin
• Fiona: only the sixth-named tropical storm this year to date

From Peter Zeihan: 

Under-investment: Wow, this has been a consistent theme on the blog for years. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: already doown 1.5% and the trading day has not even begun. Trading at $83.84.

Natural gas: $7.642. Maybe this winter won't be as bad as "everyone" thinks it will be.

Tuesday, September 20, 2022: 30 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 419 for the year
38726, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH,

Monday, September 19, 2022: 29 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 418 for the year
38727, conf, Slawson, Sauger Federal 4-22H,

Sunday, September 18, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
None.

Saturday, September 17, 2022: 28 for the month, 78 for the quarter, 417 for the year
29784, conf, Zavanna, Galloway 18-30 4H,
29292, conf, Slawson, Phoenix 3-18H,

RBN Energy: natural gas production hits 100 Bcf/d but is no match for record demand.

Lower 48 natural gas production this month hit a once-unthinkable milestone, topping the all-important psychological threshold of 100 Bcf/d for the first time. 

Volumes have remained at record highs through mid-September, with year-on-year gains expanding to a breathtaking 7-9 Bcf/d above last year at this time (when hurricane-related shut-ins were in effect). 

The record production levels coincided with a seasonal decline in weather-related demand, as well as the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal. 

Remarkably, however, even with all-time high, ~100 Bcf/d natural gas production and Freeport LNG offline, the Lower 48 gas market balance averaged tighter year-on-year — a testament to just how strong consumption has been lately, and for much of this summer for that matter. In today’s blog, we look at how the supply-demand balance has shaped up this month and where it’s headed near-term.

How To Read Financial Statements -- September 19, 2022

Link here. 

Starbucks Closures -- Re-Posting -- September 19, 2022

Updates

September 19, 2022: the sixteen US stores that Starbucks will close. Wow, per capita, closing six in greater Seattle compared to six in greater Los Angeles is simply breath-taking. 

If this really is a safety / crime issue, it speaks volumes about Seattle. Compared to Los Angeles, Seattle is a back-water, trivial pueblo. If I were to visit Los Angeles today, it is completely unlikely that I would come anywhere near to any neighborhood where these six Starbucks are going to close. On the other hand, I would very likely be in three or four of those neighborhoods in Seattle. Same holds true for Portland. 

Geographic size:

• greater Los Angeles: 34,000 square miles
• Seattle: 84 square miles
• Portland: 145 square miles

Where the sixteen Starbucks restaurants slated for closing are located:

• six in greater Los Angeles
• six in greater Seattle
• two in Portland, OR
• one in Philadelphia
• one in DC

Original Post 

Pre-Covid I was at Starbucks every weekday working on the blog. 

Since March, 2020, I have not gone to my local Starbucks even once. I have gone to out-of-town Starbucks on two occasions in the past six months, associated with my cross-country trip to Montana. It's still a great experience, but at home, the Starbucks K-pod at home is costing me less than 50 cents for a cup of coffee. At Starbucks, my average expenditure was $4.00 and several hundred calories (chocolate croissant). At home, I never, never have a chocolate croissant; I have oatmeal. 

I see that Starbucks is now starting to close stores in high-crime areas. Link: 

• https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/starbucks-makes-good-promise-close-more-stores-crime-rages-new-orleans.
  

From the linked article:

A popular Starbucks location in New Orleans will close next month due to safety concerns, just weeks after Starbucks' top executive said crime will force stores across the country to close. 

The Canal Street Starbucks location has been in operation for nine years. It will officially close on October 3, 2022.

Starbucks officials announced in July that 16 stores across the country were closing due to safety concerns. 

On a separate note, at least one Starbucks restaurant has now unionized and apparently a second store is considering doing the same.

My hunch is that Starbucks management is getting ahead of this union move, and will use "we-need-to-close-this-store-for-safety-reasons" rationale for closing other Starbucks for "other" unstated reasons. 

The NLRB can investigate but it's hard to argue against closing a store where customers and employees are at risk for their own safety.

For Investors Only -- September 19, 2022

This showed up in my in-box this morning.

Market Cap of Five Largest US Oil and Gas Companies Surged by $430B YoY.

Although the gas prices in the United States have been falling steadily for the past three months, the stock prices of the largest US oil and gas companies are still way above their last-year level.

According to data presented by AugustaFreePress.com, the combined market cap of the top five oil and gas companies in the United States surged by almost $430bn year-over-year, reaching above $1trn last week.

ExxonMobil`s Market Cap up by 75% YoY, Chevron Follows with a 67% Increase

Over the past few months, the gas prices in the United States hit their highest seasonal level in 14 years, pushed up by increased energy use during heat waves and strong exports to Europe as countries try to stock up for winter.

Stock prices of the US oil and gas giants also skyrocketed in this period. In September last year, the combined market capitalization of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources, the five largest oil and gas producers in the United States, amounted to $583.3bn, revealed the Macrotrends data. The stock prices continued rising in the first months of 2022 and peaked in June when their combined market cap stood at above $1.1trn. Although the figure dropped by $100bn over the past three months, this still represents a huge 73% YoY jump.

ExxonMobil Corporation, the largest oil and gas producer in the United States, witnessed a 75% market cap increase over the past twelve months, with the combined value of its stocks rising from $235bn to $413bn. Chevron saw its market cap grow by 67% YoY. Last week, the market cap of the second largest gas company in the US stood at $312.8bn, up from $186.6 bn in the same month a year ago.

ConocoPhillips` Market cap Nearly Doubled, the Biggest Increase Among the Top 5

However, statistics show ConocoPhillips witnessed the largest year-over-year stock price growth. In September 2021, ConocoPhillips` market cap stood at $78.9bn. In the next six months, this figure jumped to nearly $140bn and continued rising. By June, the combined value of shares of the third largest US gas producer peaked at $157bn. Although this figure slipped to just under $152bn since then, this still represents a massive 92% increase year-over-year.

The market cap of EOG Resources jumped by 63% YoY, standing at $71.6bn last week. 

Pioneer Natural Resources follows with a market cap of nearly $70bn, 60% more than in the same month a year ago.

The full story and statistics can be found here: https://augustafreepress.com/market-cap-of-five-largest-us-oil-and-gas-companies-surged-by-430b-yoy/.

Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.