Completing 1Q17 Data -- April 30, 2019

I'm going through the wells that came off the confidential list in the 1Q17. Some wells were still shown as DUCs. I am updating those DUCs. All wells below were still shown as DUCs; updating them tonight. 

I will move these to the appropriate location on the blog tomorrow.

• 32712, 2,167, Equinor/Statoil, Heinz 18-19 5H, Patent Gate, t2/18; cum 98K 2/19; came off line 10/18; still off line as of 2/19;
• 29556, 330, Equinor/Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea, t1/18; cum 93K 2/19; went off line 11/18; still off line as of 2/19;31966, 1,803, XTO, George Federal 21X-19F2, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 94K 2/18; off line as of 10/18; back on line as of 1/19 (26K in January, 2019) but then off line again in 2/19;
• 31965, 2,446, XTO, George Federal 21X-19A, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 114K 2/19; off line as of 10/18; back on line as of 1/19; then off line in 2/19;
• 31964, 2,823, XTO, George Federal 21X19E, Lost Bridge, t7/18; cum 138K 2/19; off line as of10/18; then back on line as of 12/18; huge well;
• 31187, 571, Enerplus, Wooly Torch 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 186K 2/19; off line as of 1/19; remains off-line as of 2/19;  
• 32463, 421, Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Milt Sandra 15-20HS, Ambrose, t3/19; cum -- (only 9 days of production);
• 29790, 662, Enerplus, Saguaro 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 244K 2/19; off line as of 1/19; remains off-line as of 2/19; 
• 32462, 179, Petro-Hunt/SM Energy, Hank Katie 15-20HN, Ambrose, t2/19; cum --; only 18 days of production;
• 32501, 1,884, XTO, Werre Trust 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 200K 2/19; 
• 32500, 2,717, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXD-N, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 261K 2/19;
• 32499, 1,071, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34EXH2-N, Bear Creek, t6/18; cum 127K 2/19; came off line 10/18; back online for seven days in 2/19; 
• 32481, 2,288, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34A, Bear Creek, t9/18; cum 127K 2/19; 
• 32480, 2,653, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34E, Bear Creek, t5/18; cum 119K 2/19; off line as of 11/18; still off line as of 2/19; 
• 32479, 2,701, XTO, Werre Trust Federal 14X-34AXB, Bear Creek, t7/18; cum 185K 2/19;
• 31963, 2,596, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19AXB, Lost Bridge, t8/18; cum 84K 2/19; off line as of 10/18; huge production since then, but off line recently; 
  

Remains a DUC:

• 32938, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms-156-92-24V-2, Ross, a Birdbear well; no production data,
• 32449, SI/NC, SM Energy, Donna Buddy 15B-20HN, Amrose, no production data, 
• 32450, SI/NC, SM Energy, Gracious God 15B-20HS,  Ambrose, no production data, 
• 32883, SI/NC, North Range Resources, LLC, Placid 28-1V, Rough Rider, target: Duperow, Mission Canyon, Souris River; spacing 160 acres; a "vertical well" but the target bottom hole will be 1301 feet north of well and 1058 feet east of well; no production data,  

Remains confidential:

• 32381, conf, BR, Hawktail 11-11MBH-ULW, -- off confidential list according to NDIC, but data not reported by this date

Oil Spikes -- From Oilprice -- Late Evening, April 30, 2019

From oilprice:

Minor Market Notes -- April 30, 2019

GE: slows cash burn as it shrinks -- WSJ. Guides that 2Q19 will show negative cash flow but stick to 2019 forecasts. Grounding of Boeing's 737 Max 8 airline will make things challenging.

GM loses ground to Ford. The WSJ.

Disruptor? Walmart or Amazon?

• Motley Fool: Walmart is the real disruptor. 
• Consumer spend, pymnts, November, 2018:
  
  • Walmart: accounts for 8.9% of consumer retail spending in the US; 2.8% of all consumer spending in the US
  • Amazon: 6.4%; 2.1% for comparable figures
• on-line retailers:
• Amazon -- #1 by a long shot
• eBay -- #2
• Walmart -- #3 -- "leapfrogging" over Apple
• Apple -- #4

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here and what you think you may have read here.

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Economic Indicators

Odds and ends:

• no "major wars": and an-volunteer military
  
• jobs: initial unemployment claims -- at 50-year record
• jobs: full employment -- unemployment well under 4%
• jobs: employers looking to hire more "seniors"
• jobs: huge source of potential low wage "southern surge" employees 
• inflation: tame; no wage inflation; CPI below Fed goal
• workforce participation: increasing; a record?
• GDP: first reading, first quarter -- 3.2% vs 2.7% forecast
• WTI: in the sweet spot at $60 
• gasoline demand: busting out
• energy: an American glut -- solar, wind, natural gas, nuclear, coal
• trade: irrelevant; US economy is 2/3rd consumer-drive;
• trade: China culling swine; will need US farm products;
• trade: China won't come close to its natural gas production goals; will need foreign supplies
• US Fed: there are indications that "rates" won't be raised this year; even talk of a possible 50-bp cut
• established, mature companies are blowing away earnings: Ford, Amazon, Apple
• P/E's: neither historically high, nor historically low; average at 16 -- Schwab advisor
• "money remains cheap"
• Americans have money to spend: Avengers: Endgame with $1.2 billion opening weekend
  
• personal tax rates cut; refunds down: only one explanation 
• corporate tax cuts still working their way through the system:  
• $1,000-smart phones for $35/month (iPhone 10R, Sprint) 
• it's crawfish season here in the south
• and, then this, in the late edition of  The Wall Street Journal -- so, it must be true -- 

Market futures (8:38 p.m. CT):

• Dow: up 70 points
• Nasdaq: up 45 points
• S&P 500: up 7.50 points

On that list above, the one that should be most bullish:

• Americans have money to spend: Avengers: Endgame with $1.2 billion opening weekend

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For me, this is the #1 song I associate with southern California ...

Spirit In The Sky, Norman Greenbaum
Released in late 1969; Spirit in the Sky played through those 18 months, late 1969 to early 1971. I took a road trip from South Dakota to California in late 1969. First trip ever for me out of the midwest as an adult. Three of the six on that road trip were Californians; three of us were midwesterners (Iowa, South Dakota, and North Dakota). We must have heard this song on the radio a hundred times on that road trip but it was most incredible when it came on just as we entered the San Diego metropolitan area. We came as close to Tom Wolfe's The Electric Kook-Aid Acid Test without realizing it. That book came out in 1968; don't remember when I first read it, but the book wouldn't have meant as much without that road trip.

Holy Mackerel -- AAPL Shares Up 5% After-Hours; Up Over $10; Trading At $211 -- April 30, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

WSJ link here; and, here.

Apple beats expectations, 2Q19 results. Link here; and, here; and, here; and, here;

• earnings:
• expectations: $2.37
• actual: $2.46
• revenue:
• expectations: $57.49
• actual: $58

• Apple's services making more money than ever
• just wait until the Apple Watch measures blood glucose non-invasively (no need for needle) 
• valuation back toward $1 trillion
• cash hoard now at $225.4 billion

Can't wait to read the snarky comments over at Macrumors.

• $11.56 billion profit on $58 billion revenue as services revenue hits all-time high
• gross margins: 37.6% vs 38.3% one year ago
• international sales accounting for 61% of revenue

Increased its dividend to 77 cents/share, up from 73 cents/share.

Also authorized $75 billion to re-purchase more AAPL shares.

This is the second quarter since Apple changed the way it reports its results, with the company no longer providing unit sales data for iPhone, iPad, and Mac. As a result, Apple is only providing revenue figures for its various segments, leaving analysts to estimate unit sales based on their own calculations.

Twenty comments so far but by tomorrow there will be a thousand. Comments:

First comment:

$58 billion was on the higher end of their guidance; beat again. 

First snarky comment:

So right in the middle of their guidance range of $55 to $59 billion. Year over year of 5% decline. Looks like services aren't ramping as quickly as hardware is dropping. 

Great comment:

Services are double the revenue of the Mac. Yet, we still have people here telling them to ditch services and focus on the Mac ... to other forms of media, shows that the future is not just hardware anymore. 

China Natural Gas Production Update -- April 330, 2019

See "NaturalGas_China" tag.

China won't come close to its 2020 goal of 30 billion cubic meters natural gas production.

Independent analysts expect China to produce 13 billion cubic meters natural gas per year production by 2020. 

Active Rigs At 64; WTI Settles Below $64 -- April 30,2019

API crude oil inventory: surprise build. Another whopping 7-million-bbl build -- the same as last week. Forecast? A build of 2 million bbls. How did Z-Man do? This was his professional research: a crude oil build of less than onemillion bbls. However, that is what he forecasts the EIA will report -- that report comes out tomorrow.


MDU earnings: misses by two cents; EPS of 21 cents; is that about a 10% miss?; revenue of $1.09 billion beats expectations by $90 million. Shares down by about half a percent.

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Back to the Bakken

 

Active rigs:

$63.85	4/30/2019	04/30/2018	04/30/2017	04/30/2016	04/30/2015
Active Rigs	64	61	49	29	86

No new permits.

One permit renewed:

• Whiting, a Kessel permit, in Stark County.

CVX -OXY - APC -- The Saga Continues -- April 30, 2019

This is absolutely fascinating to follow. After it was revealed that OXY sought and received support from Warren Buffett in the former's goal to buy Anadarko:

• OXY: down a whopping 2.89%; losing almost $1.75; trading at $58.30
• CVX: up a whopping 3.22%; adding $3.79 to its under-value value; now trading at $121.51

WTI is up slightly today, so one can argue that the change in OXY / CVX share price is due completely to the Warren Buffett story. Apparently investors would like CVX  and OXY to stay away from Anadarko, which is not uncommon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision(s) based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

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SRE

Perhaps this explains why SRE has been "down" the last couple of days.

• McDermott says initial production from the second and third liquefaction trains at Sempra Energy's Cameron LNG export terminal is expected in 2020, months later than previously expected.
• LNG startup from trains 2 and 3 at Cameron is now set for Q1 2020 2020 and Q2 2020, respectively, MDR CFO Stuart Spence said on yesterday's earnings conference call.
• SRE said as recently as February that it hoped to have all three trains at the Louisiana facility operational by the end of this year.
• Production from Train 1 is expected to begin within weeks, and eventually the terminal will be ready to ship cargoes.

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AAPL

AAPL: reports after market close today .

CLR's April, 2019, Investor Update Has Been Posted

Link here.

• 1Q19 results
• net income: $187 million
• growth yoy: 16%
• oil growth yoy: 18%
• total G&A per boe: $1.60
• improved oil diff QoQ: 43%
• Three strategic "step-out" wells with excellent results, 24-hour IPs
• current metric: 100,000 bbls in 90 days
• MT, Baird Federal: 1,680 
• outperforming legacy well by 110% at 60 days
• ND, Burian: 2,400
• outperforming legacy well by 80% at 60 days
• ND, McClintock, 2,440
• outperforming legacy well by 100% at 60 days
• low cost leader among peers (actually identifies peers on slide 4)
• quite striking
• compare with APC, OAS, DVN, others; 
• EOG comes close
• APC comes close
• lowest maintenance cash flow breakeven: shows a breakeven of $38
• operations
• 194 optimized development wells completed in 23 units
• entire 194 well development program has paid out
• top 10 CLR Bakken 30-day rate units
• three of top ten units were completed in 1Q19

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For Future Reference

Regarding the wells CLR references above:

• Burian:
• 35495, conf, CLR, Burian 4-27H1, St Demetrius, t--; 16K over 14 days;
• 21806, 854, CLR, Burian 1-27H, St Demetrius, t3/12; cum 259K 2/19; 

• McClintock:
• 35538, conf, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t--; cum 10K over unspecified number of days;
• 22031, 819, CLR, McClintock 1-1H, Pleasant Valley, t6/12; cum 213K 2/19;

Tesla -- Share Price Critical? -- April 30, 2019

From ZeroHedge one year ago, April 28, 2018:

So if Musk owed $624.3 million over a year ago (2017) and subsequently paid interest on that loan while drawing a minimal salary ($49,920) and continuing his aforementioned luxurious lifestyle while pouring $100 million into his latest distraction, the Boring Company, it seems reasonable to guess that his current loans total approximately $800 million, which means—according to the new proxy—they’d need to be collateralized by $3.2 billion in Tesla shares.

[Again, back in early 2018] As the proxy notes Musk has currently pledged 13,774,897 of his 37,853,041 shares to support those loans, it implies that at a share price below $232.30 (assuming a current balance of $800 million), he’d face either a margin call or the need to post additional shares as collateral. (For some perspective, earlier this month [April, 2018] the stock dipped as low as the $244s.)

It appears TSLA dropped to about $232 last Friday (April 26, 2019). The stock recovered yesterday to $241.

Tesla turned negative this morning (Tuesday, April 30, 2019) after two events.

• Chinese company buys billboard in Times Square complaining about faulty Teslas
• Tesla will cut prices of solar panels in attempt to regain solar energy dominance

First Solar, trading slightly negative today, is trading in its 52-week mid-range.

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Blue Apron

A better-than-expected quarter at Blue Apron. The meal kit company posted a narrower loss than many expected, but revenue slid 28% year-over-year. Blue Apron has been struggling to re-claim market share and recently brought in a new CEO to try to reignite growth. Hardly seems like a "going" concern.

The Decline And Slow Death Of California -- Zero Hedge -- April 30, 2019

Re-posting. Link here.

Data points:

• since 1985, California crude oil production has plunged 60 percent to 460,000 bopd
• California's oil reserves have declined 25% to 2.2 billion bbls
• compare North Dakota, four small western counties:
• 1.2 million bopd
• reserves: conservatively 7 billion bbls 
• fracking: doubled US reserves to 45 billion bbls over the past ten years
• California: second biggest crude oil consumer after Texas; each day --
• 40 million gallons of gasoline
• 8 million gallons of diesel
• 20% of the country's jet fuel
• dependent on Middle Eastern oil
• strict environmental rules preclude using its own oil or Canadian oil
• 37% of California oil comes from OPEC
• some promising shale unlikely to be tapped in near future if ever
• natural gas: most important source in energy mix in California
• look at this: 95% of natural gas consumed in California is imported
• unlikely any significant increase in local natural gas production

North Dakota vs California:

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Kashoggi Suspect Found Dead In Cell

For those who missed it, reported by The WSJ. 

Hung, ruled a suicide.

Britain's Natural Gas Imports Booming -- Bloomberg -- April 30, 2019

Link here, data points:

• NG imports increasing; no sign of slowing down
• British imports usually decline in the summer; not this year
• increased NG imports due to number of reasons
• price
• extensive infrastructure
• extensive traded hubs
• Britain can absorb any global surplus as well as handle a growing worldwide producion boom
• cooler weather also supporting demand in the UK
• UK shipments are mainly sourced from the biggest exporter, Qatar
• Nigeria, Norway in the mix
• US becoming a bigger player
• April: likely to set a record high import month for LNG into the UK

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TCM Special On Robert Osborne

Last night; incredible. Probably available on YouTube.

Made his own luck. 

COP Beats By Ten Cents; Doubles Earnings; BHGE Adjusted Income Doubles -- April 30, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Others reporting today:

• PSX (Phillips 66): forecast, 39 cents; Market Street forecasts 34 cents;
• AAPL, after market close, forecast, $2.36
• BHGE: forecast, 13 cents; actual -- adjusted income doubles; 15 cents/share;
• COP: forecast, 90 cents; business wire here;
• GM: forecast, $1.11; actual -- a beat; beat driven by lucrative pickup truck sales; lifted in part by revaluations of shares it holds in ride-hailing company Lyft and Peugeot; 7% decline in US new-vehicle sales in 1Q19; GM pickups outsold by smaller rival Fiat Chrysler; net profit, $1.48; adjusted, $1.41; pre-tax earnings fell more than 11% [Comment: seems like a very, very mixed report; nice beat on earnings but everything else "shaky." Investors seems to agree: GM shares down almost 2% after earnings released. On a day that the market is up slightly, but broadly, GM continues to fall -- in early pre-market trading fell almost 3% before recovering a bit.]

COP: earnings presentation (slides) here. Earnings transcript here. 

COP: from link above --

• earnings: $1.8 billion; $1.60/share -- vs $0.9 billion, 75 cents a year ago
• adjusted, $1.1 billion, $1.00/share beating forecast of 90 cents/share
• cash from operations: $2.9 billion
• free cash flow: $1.3 billion
• repurchased $0.8 billion of shares; paid $0.3 billion in dividends -- funded entirely from free cash flow
• grew production from the Lower 48 Big 3 unconventionals by 30 percent y-o-y
• cash on hand at end of year: $6.5 billion
• reminder: court ordered Venezuela to pay COP $8.7 billion for unlawful expropriation
• pays 1.83% 
• 8-K here

COP at SeekingAlpha:

• ConocoPhillips up 1.3% pre-market after reporting a solid Q1 earnings beat, helped by increased production from its U.S. assets.
• COP did not provide revenue results in the release, but says Q1 production excluding Libya rose 7.5% to 1.32M boe/day, and expects Q2 output of 1.24M-1.28M boe/day, with seasonal turnarounds planned in Alaska, Canada and Europe.
• COP's total realized price in the quarter was $50.59/bbl vs. $50.49/bbl a year ago, as higher LNG and bitumen prices were largely offset by lower crude, natural gas liquids and natural gas prices.
• COP also reiterates its long-term cash flow outlook from the November analyst meeting, where it said it expects to generate absolute and per-share organic growth and return at least 30%/year of cash from operations to shareholders and deliver free cash flow at less than $40/bbl WTI across a range of prices.

Active Rigs Steady At 64 -- April 30, 2019

NY Times: five companies that made a multi-billion dollar profit last year (2018) and paid no taxes:

• Amazon: $10 billion profit
• Chevron, EOG, GM, and Detla Airlines

Top GoM producers, link here:

• Chevron + Anadarko: would take first place; 400,000 boepd
• BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Equinor, Fieldwood
• XOM, BHP, combined Murphy and LLOG, Hess, Talos Energy

Permian school: child card, 6 weeks to 5 years old; afterschool for kindergarten to 5th grade

• sponsored by Anadarko, Chevron, EOG, and Occidental; link here.

Line 5, Michigan, Enbridge: replacement/upgrade looks dead. 

Iran, sanctions: Asia's crude oil imports from Iran rise to 8-month high at 1.5 million bopd in March; Iran exports to Asia will continue even under new restrictions/sanctions.

LNG imports: Britain, setting new records; no signs of decreasing; link here.

Poland:

• yesterday this was reported -- Huge Russian pipeline shutdown: crude oil contaminated with organic chlorides; corrosive; damaging to pipelines, refiners. One million bopd from the Urals into eastern Europe (Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic). 
• update today: Poland releasing emergency oil stocks

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today  -- Tuesday, April 30, 2019: 95 wells for the month; 95 wells for the quarter

• 34783, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-1H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 107K 3/19;
• 34405, 715, Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P., Lamey 4-30-31H-143-96, Fayette, t10/18; bcum 43K 2/19;
• 33125, 1,896, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-8H,McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum 86K 2/19;

Active rigs:

$64.28	4/30/2019	04/30/2018	04/30/2017	04/30/2016	04/30/2015
Active Rigs	64	61	49	29	86

RBN Energy: San Mateo Midstream's Delaware Basin gathering systems, part 3.

The run-up in Permian crude oil production over the past few years — and the expectation of continued gains — has been spurring the development of a number of crude gathering systems in the play’s Midland and Delaware basins. These small-diameter pipeline networks are critically important to producers and shippers in that they enable them to transport crude more quickly and cost-effectively than by truck, and (ideally) they connect to takeaway pipelines that flow to multiple destinations. But there is more than one approach to developing a gathering system. For example, a midstream company could plan a system that appeals to several producers in an area and then try to sign them up. Or, it might work closely with a single producer — sometimes an affiliated company — and design a gathering system to meet its specific needs, then work to add other producers and shippers later. Today, we look at the West Texas and southeastern New Mexico systems developed by a joint-venture company of Matador Resources and Five Point Energy to serve Matador and others.

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Any Landing From Which One Can Walk Away ...

The Decline And Slow Death Of California -- Zero Hedge -- April 29, 2019

For the archives.

We've talked about this -- the road-to-California -- many, many times.

Link here.

North Dakota / the Bakken is mentioned in this article.

The statistics are quite interesting.

Random thought: OXY's strong interest in Anadarko/the Permian? The "replacement" for its California assets spun off some years ago. An "unhealthy" rebound relationship?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Two Days Until May, 2019

Global warming hits North Dakota.

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Crawfish Season

A night out with just Sophia and me. Sophia took both pictures. I could not take a photograph of her, for obvious reasons. LOL. Fish City Grill, Southlake Boulevard, Southlake, TX. The first pound of crawfish. Flavor: "Old Bay." $5.99 / pound.

The second pound of crawfish. Flavor: "Nitro."

Both photos by Sophia, age 4. iPhone SE.

Oroville Dam Spillway -- April 29, 2019

This may amount to nothing but a very credible reader has sent me a note suggesting it might be interesting to follow the Oroville Dam spillway for the next few months. For the archives.

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Robert Osborne -- For The Movie Buffs

This is a very, very long interview.

Well worth it.

This is just part one of three parts. The first two parts are each about 30 minutes. The third part of three is fifteen minutes.

Measles -- 2019

See also: "measles."

Updates

April 29, 2019: WSJ -- measles cases top last week's 25-year high as outbreak worsens; outbreak shows no sign of slowing with 78 new cases in past week.

April 28, 2019: "deer in the headlights." -- California officials. 

January 24, 2018: Texas could be first state to experience serious measles outbreak -- this was in The Dallas News over a year ago. 

Measles -- 2019

Re-posting (April 27, 2019):

In 2000, measles was "eradicated" from the US. Screenshots to follow.

Ten years later, ObamaCare was signed into law on March 23, 2010.

Less than a decade later, this headline: this is the worst year for measles in the US since the disease was eliminated nationally in 2000. But that's CNBC so it may be fake news. Let's fact check:

• Buzzfeed: measles outbreaks in the US are now the worst on record since the disease was eradicated (that word again: eradicated)
• CDC, Atlanta, Georgia: US measles cases at highest level since elimination nearly 20 years ago, according to CDC (for ESL readers: "eradication" and "elimination" are very similar in meaning)

Again, thank you Mr Orrin Hatch, R-Utah. The data suggests this has little to do with the "southern surge."

Timeline:

• measles eradication in the US
• that Lancet article (Lancet is the most prestigious medical journal in the world)
• Orrin Hatch
• ObamaCare
• social media
• measles epidemic in the US

Occasional-Cortex is looking better and better every day.

Cost of measles vaccine:

• MMRII: $75
• but for the really good stuff, ProQuad: $214.37 (the vaccine includes the "chickenpox vaccine)
• free to inmates and illegal immigrants

Saudi Aramco Sees Shale Gas As Kingdom's Next Energy Bonanza -- Bloomberg -- April 29, 2019

I was not particularly interested in this story but was surprised with the graphic:

For me, this almost seems like:

• a desperation move;
• a grasping for straws; but,
• yes, huge incentive for Saudi Arabia to start going after natural gas.

COP To Announce 1Q19 Tomorrow -- April 29, 2019

COP will announce before market open, April 30.

• ConocoPhillips is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 30th, before market open.
• The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.90 (-6.2% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $9.06B (+1.1% Y/Y).
• Over the last 2 years, cop has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.

MDU will announce after market closes, April 30.

• MDU Resources is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings results on Tuesday, April 30th, after market close.
• The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.23 (+4.5% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1B (+2.4% Y/Y).
• Over the last 2 years, mdu has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.

Google with rare miss. Link here. Also at The Wall Street Journal --

• revenue rises at slowest pace in three years
• shares dropped more than 5% after hours
• revenues: $36.3 billion vs $37.3 billion forecast
• deep in the story: the EU fine of $1.7 billion

McDermott: first-quarter loss of $56 million; a loss of 39 cents/share. Link here.

• guidance: $1.56/share for full year 

Weekly petroleum, EIA data, later this week. Z4 Research / Z-Man forecasts (from twitter):

• crude: up 0.9 million bbls
• gasoline: down 1.0 million bbls
• distillates: down 0.8million bbls
• strong gasoline demand
• a drop in net imports 

Saudi production, from energyintel:

Giant Saudi field can pump 5 million b/d, Aramco exec says Tuesday, April 30, 2019. Saudi Arabia's Ghawar oil field can produce up to 5 million b/d if required, even though its capacity was put at 3.8 million b/d in Aramco's bond prospectus.

CLR 1Q19 Earnings

Press release:

• earnings
• net income: $187 million
• EPS: 50 cents/share
• adjusted net income: $217 million
• adjusted EPS: 58 cents/share
• forecast: 48 cents/share
• production: 
• 193,921 bopd average; up 18% y-o-y
• 332,236 boepd average; up 16% over y-o-y
• Bakken: 3 strategic step-out wells deliver excellent results

After market close: shares up 3%; over $1.50; trading just under $50

Reuters: CLR profit beats as higher production offsets weaker prices.

• in the Bakken, shale hit a record 1.41 million bopd (all production; not just CLR)
• average sales price, excluding hedging: fell to $35.56/boe, from $41.26 a year earlier
• earned 58 cents vs forecast of 49 cents
• guidance unchanged:
• 190,000 - 200,000 bopd
• 790 million cf - 810 million cf
• reiterates budget of $2.6 billion

CLR: history here; 

WTI Slide Slows; MRO With Four New Permits; Fourteen New Permits -- April 29, 2019

Active rigs:

$63.50	4/29/2019	04/29/2018	04/29/2016	04/29/2015	04/29/2014
Active Rigs	64	62	29	86	189

Four new permits:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Four Bears (McKenzie County)
• Comments: MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in section 20-152-93, Four Bears oil field

Eight permits canceled:

• EOG: five West Clark permits and three Riverview permits canceled, all in McKenzie County 

Fourteen permits renewed:
NP Resources (7):
Hess (3):
WPX (2):
Cobra Oil & Gas:
Rimrock Oil & Gas:

UK Bans Fracking; UK Fracking "Tsar" Resigns -- April 29, 2019

Link here at BBC.

I've lost the bubble on this, no longer following the story, but I believe the UK has been unable to complete two (2) fracks.

Just Incredible -- Making America Great Again -- April 29, 2019

First, notable bills passed by the 115th US Congress as of 117 days:

And we move on. 

If it weren't for Drudge, no one would notice --

Link here ---

Even I missed that the first time around: consumer spending -- biggest gain since 2009. Reuters. New record on Wall Street.

Democrat response: resist!

Buttigieg reponse: change course!

Beto: $5 trillion to combat climate change.


From Pew Research:

Nine Point Energy; Southwest Of Williston; North Side Of The River -- April 29, 2019

From the NDIC today. This is really quite remarkable -- in  a bit more than five months -- more than 107K ... I remember when when the Bakken boom began -- folks were excited when operators were producing 100K in 18 to 24 months. Now, it's typical for operators to hit 100K in less than six months. Amazing ...

• 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, 73 stages; 10.2 million lbs, Eightmile oil field, t11/18; cum 108K 3/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	20845	21217	59511	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	19338	19039	55351	22475	0	22475
BAKKEN	1-2019	27	15452	15319	50925	15873	0	15873
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	20412	20655	74284	21070	0	21070
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	29655	29354	94483	29895	0	29895
BAKKEN	10-2018	15	1743	1586	14078	840	0	840

Same section:

• 34783,
• 34784,
• 34785, see above;
• 34786,
• 34787,
• 34788,

• 36157,
• 36156,
• 36155,

Making America Great Again -- April 29, 2019

If it weren't for Drudge, no one would notice ---

Goldlilocks economy, March, 2019, data:

• US consumer spending picks up;
• US core inflation cools.

What's not to like?

US consumer spending, euphemistically called "purchases," make up more than two-thirds of the US economy: rose almost 1% in March, topping estimates --- and then get this, which was not in the headline -- the GAIN was the BEST GAIN in almost a decade.

The Democrats' response: resist!
Buttigieg's response: we need to change course.

Reuters suggests February's low number -- a "slow response" as they say -- was due to the government shutdown. Reuters just had to get that in there. The government shutdown? Wow, talk about a stretch. How long ago was that? LOL.

Personal income: rose 0.1% -- but that was less than forecast. Wage inflation? Hardly?

And then this, the Fed's preferred core-price gauge:

• unchanged
• forecast for a 0.1% gain
• and, again, buried in the story and not the headline: the CPI gain was the slowest since January, 2018

The Fed? More and more it appears Jerome Powell doesn't want to be seen as an idiot. I'm not sure a rate cut is even needed any more based on new data. It's almost as if Powell missed an opportunity and is now trying to play catch up --- and it may not be needed.

From the linked Reuters article:

The signs of consumer strength follow Friday’s gross domestic product report showing consumer spending, the largest chunk of the economy, cooled in the first quarter to a 1.2 percent pace of gains. That was offset by boosts from inventories and trade that helped economic growth accelerate to a 3.2 annualized rate.

By the way, this is all very interesting.

At the Schwab seminar we attended last week, the speaker said these three things are now the major factors affecting the stock market:

• fiscal policy: Congress out of control, but no one cares, and it's already baked into the stock market
• monetary policy: no need to raise rates; more likely no action this year, but a rate cut is possible
• trade policy: bark bigger than its bite.

When I asked about trade policy, it was pointed out that for the market in general, "trade" is much ado about nothing. The speaker said that the US economy is driven by consumer spending. The linked story at Reuters said exactly that: more than 2/3rds of the US economy is consumer spending. Trade policy with China will have very little effect on GDP or the market.

The real issue with trade, the speaker said, was espionage, spying, etc. Not "trade, per se."

*****************************

Looking Forward To This Evening

Monday night, crawfish special, "Fish City Grill."

Crawfish boil; potatoes and corn. 

c. 2019: Fish City Grill.

Not only is it just plain cold, we can’t even warm ourselves up with a big platter of freshly boiled crawfish!

This winter has been one of the coldest that southern Louisiana has seen in several decades. Which means that it will be one of the latest crawfish seasons that most of us can remember. Many of the ponds are actually iced over—not a common sight in south Louisiana!

Check out this video of our crawfish supplier out at their ponds in Louisiana—those are sheets of ice on the water.

Cold weather keeps the crawfish burrowed down in the mud, and they will stay that way until the temperature of the pond water consistently gets above 50° (many ponds are currently at 40° or so—sheesh!). At that point they will begin moving and eating, however, most all of the crawfish are, well, babies. They are not big enough for harvesting.

I will be taking Sophia to Fish City Grill -- for crawfish. On special right now, at $8.99/lb, but on Mondays for the next couple of weeks, $5.99/lb.

Hopefully nothing interferes with our plans.

See also this link, and the February, 2019 post.

Of the many I looked at this, this might be one of the best:

It Is Almost May, Isn't It? -- April 29, 2019

Global warming smacks the Bakken. From KX News Storm Team -- more weather --

Hope springs eternal: $100 oil -- from Bloomberg -- the price of oil is not the issue. The volatility, the rate of change -- that's the real problem. If oil spikes to $100/bbl by the end of the summer, not so good for the global economy. If oil gradually climbts to $100/bbl over the next five years, awesome.

From an old post:

Births: it's well-known among moms that pregnant women (as opposed to pregnant men?) are more likely to go into labor during a full moon than any other time. Now, we know that babies tend to weigh less at birth when moms live near fracking sites. I honestly cannot believe The Wall Street Journal published this study. I read the headline and part of the first paragraph ... that was all I needed. Having said that, my guess is that moms with a history of delivering 11-pound babies will gladly move near a fracking site now that this study has been released.

Bitcoin: I haven't followed Bitcoin in months. It seems like a year since I last read anything about bitcoin. Apparently not all is well in paradise. Perhaps it's difficult to mine bitcoin during the winter. I don't know. And, of course, Hillary talked about putting a lot of miners out of work.

Ford Regains Bragging Rights -- April 29, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Ford: regains bragging rights. Ford regained its status as the #2 US car maker in market value, leaving Tesla Inc behind after a massive earnings beat that stoked a rally for Ford stock. Data points:
market cap:

• GM: $56 billion
• Ford: $40.7 billion
• Tesla: $40.6 billion

Meanwhile, Tesla may seek alternative financing sources -- Reuters. Musk Melon speaks with forked tongue:

Tesla Inc said on Monday it could seek alternative sources of financing although it expects cash generated from its business to be enough to fund its investments and pay down debt for at least the next 12 months. [Memo to self: look up idiom, "too many irons in the fire."]

GM: will report tomorrow, Tuesday.

Pre-market trading: blah.

• OXY: on news that Anadarko looking at OXY's bid and WTI below $63, OXY drops another $1.55, now trading pre-market at $59.76
• SRE: off the radar scope; trading at $128; 52-week high, $130; paying 3%; will report May 7, 2019;
• XOM: despite really bad earnings report, still holding at $80; pays 4%

*****************************

They Must Be Reading The Blog

I posted this exact sentiment years ago and was probably one of the first to do so. From a 2017 posting:

Global warming? The house of cards is starting to fall. Garbage in, garbage out. Years ago, when I first started blogging, I placed popsicle sticks in a San Pedro harbor beach and monitored the Pacific Ocean sea level for five consecutive years. The popsicle had notches every one-eighth inch. I noted that the level of the Pacific Ocean rose an eighth of an inch one year but then dropped a quarter inch the following year, although that may have been an anomaly (as NASA would say) since it was clear that a dog had been playing with the popsicle stick after I found it lying horizontally on the beach. I will continue to monitor. Parking rates at the beach are upwards of $20/day so I may have to apply for a government grant to continue the research.

Now this from the 'net -- a bit old but I just found it --

************************************
Great Weekend At Copeland's

Nothing like a bit of "comfort food" after reading about global warming. LOL.

Sophia and I really had a great weekend. On Sunday we capped it off by visiting Copelands of New Orleans. We went around 3:00 p.m. just for dessert. She chose chocolate cake. Wow, she loved it.

The serving was big enough for a family a four. Seriously.

She ate all the ice cream and a small amount of the cake. We took what she did not eat home. Her two sisters and her dad loved the cake; we added more ice cream to it, and the cake served four. LOL.

Rumor: Anardarko Will Accept OXY's Bid -- April 29, 2019

Andararko: to accept OXY's bid. Rumor. Over at twitter. [Later: apparently more than just a rumor -- Reuters.]

Solar in North Dakota: for the archives. Harmony Project near Fargo.

Tussle: TSLA tumbles to two-year low after Musk-Cramer exchange. For the archives.

Rate cut? Fed may end up seeing 1995 - 1996 rate cuts as a template for today. Bloomberg.

Trump: like him, hate him. ignore him at your peril. He said he was going to get oil prices lowered. After his 3:00 a.m. call to Prince Salman WTI drops $3.00. This morning WTI remains under pressure. Support: if WTI hits $60, watch out below.

Surprising: Exxon's dismal refining results. No links; story everywhere.

Global warming: scrolling through iceagenow over the past several days -- amazing how cold it is worldwide; how long this winter has been; how much snow has fallen and is falling. Winter storm Xyler, late April, 2019, one for the record books.

Pet peeve: turns out "chalking" is violation of the US constitution.

Talk radio: huge fund-raising across the states for Trump; setting all-time records -- including Florida, New York, California. Texas particularly noteworthy: no Democrat has raised $1 million in Texas this year (so far). Trump: over the weekend: $5.6 million. Prior to that, $6 million, for a total of almost $12 million so far in 2019. In 2016, Trump got only $16 million for the entire year. May or may not be accurate; heard on talk radio; may have misheard, yada, yada, yada.

Talk radio: Boeing's 737 Max 8 story no quick fix.

Talk radio:  The Virginia Cavaliers, winners of this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament, won't be going to the White House to celebrate with President Donald Trump.

Avengers: Endgame -- $1.3 billion worldwide opening weekend. Our oldest granddaughter went. She absolutely loved it. Left her crying at the end. Said she couldn't stop crying for thirty minutes.

Morning Note Posted, Thirteen Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- April 29, 2019

Fitzsimmons on XOM: link here --

• Investors hoping for a post-Tillerson turnaround (miracle?) at Exxon are likely hard to find after the company's dreadful Q1 EPS report.
• New CEO Darren Woods' strength was supposedly the refining segment - where he rose through the ranks. Refining lost $256 million in Q1.
• Worse yet, Woods and Exxon are taking none of the proven steps to unleash shareholder value (spin-off downstream assets or form an MLP for instance).
• As a result, Chevron continues to be a superior option for those investors looking for an international integrated major oil company.

Worst refining performance in years: that's Bloomberg's take on ExxomMobil. 

Exxon Mobil Corp.’s worst refining performance in almost two decades may revive questions from analysts about the the so-called integrated model engineered by founder John D. Rockefeller and espoused by every CEO in the company’s 149-year history.

A surprise loss in a business line Exxon typically relies on to prop up more volatile units eroded first-quarter profit and cast doubt on the strength of the oil titan’s comeback from its annus horribilis in 2018.

In the last decade, when other oil companies spun off refining businesses to concentrate of drilling for crude, Exxon steadfastly adhered to the wells-to-retail model. The refining loss is particularly stinging for Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods, who rose through the ranks of the fuel-making side of the company rather than the oil-exploration business of his chief competitor for the top job, Senior Vice President Jack Williams, and predecessor Rex Tillerson.

First of many: Anadarko will be the first of many buys in 2019 -- Rigzone.  Clickbait -- it's simply a story of a single analyst saying this.

Huge Russian pipeline shutdown: crude oil contaminated with organic chlorides; corrosive; damaging to pipelines, refiners. One million bopd from the Urals into eastern Europe (Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czech Republic).  [Update, April 30, 2019: Poland releasing emergency oil stocks.]

*****************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list this weekend, Monday -- Monday, April 29, 2019: 92 wells for the month; 92 wells for the quarter

• 34552, 1,006, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall, t10/18; 70K 2/19;
• 34551, 387, EOG, Austin 112-2919H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 31K 2/19;
• 34498, 909, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 52K 2/19;
• 29799, SI/NC, Zavanna, George 19-30 4H, Stockyard Creek, no production data,

Sunday, April 28, 2019: 88 wells for the month; 88 wells for the quarter

• 34499, 667, EOG, Austin 75-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 63K 20/19;
• 34496, 648, EOG, Austin 85-1929H, Parshall, t10/18; cum 84K 2/19;
• 34464, 1,628, CLR, Peterson 6-29H, East Fork, t1/19; cum 35K 41 days;
• 33879, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 3-29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
• 35205, SI/NC, Slawson, Stallion Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 34861, SI/NC, MRO, Atkinson USA 31-17TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Saturday, April 27, 2019: 82 wells for the month; 82 wells for the quarter

• 34784, 1,098, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-2H, Eightmile, t11/18; cum 108K 3/19;
• 35206, SI/NC, Slawson, Stallion Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 34862, SI/NC, MRO, Turkey Feet USA 41-17TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Active rigs:

$62.96	4/29/2019	04/29/2018	04/29/2016	04/29/2015	04/29/2014
Active Rigs	64	62	29	86	189

RBN Energy: the many factors influencing LPG export volumes.

The biggest driver of generally rising LPG exports is the widening gap between how much LPG the U.S. consumes and how much it produces — there’s simply too much of the stuff, and LPG-hungry European and Asian markets beckon. But month-to-month export volumes are often erratic, affected by a wide range of variables. Winter weather in Wisconsin. Steam cracker economics in Germany. Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant outages in China. Not to mention lingering fog or a tank-farm fire along the Houston Ship Channel, or the startup of a new NGL pipeline to the Marcus Hook terminal near Philly. Add to all this the export-volume spikes that may come later this year and in 2020 when new dock capacity comes online along the Gulf Coast. Today, we take a look at what drives the monthly ups and downs in exports.

hanks to the Shale Revolution and the burgeoning production of NGLs, the U.S. flipped from being a net LPG importer to a net exporter back in 2012. Since then, LPG exports by ship have soared — to a record 1.375 MMb/d so far in April, and further gains are likely as NGL output continues to rise and domestic demand for propane and butane (the “purity products” that make up LPG) remains close to flat on an annual basis. But it hasn’t been a smooth, steady rise in export volumes; there have been a lot of ups and downs along the way, most of them tied to the long list of variables that can affect how much LPG is loaded onto ships each day, week and month.

One important factor, of course, is how the prices of propane and butane in the U.S. compare with prices in key destination markets such as Asia and Europe. For example, the combination of rising propane prices in Europe in early April and rock-steady prices for propane at Mont Belvieu (the Texas NGL fractionation and storage hub) increased the arbitrage value (or “arb”) for propane exports from the Gulf Coast to Europe to more than 20 cents/gal (c/gal) by mid-April (blue line in Figure 1). At the same time, still-higher propane prices in Asia increased the Mont Belvieu-Asia arb (red line) to nearly 40 c/gal in recent days, pulling more propane from the Gulf Coast to that part of the world.

Sunday Night Ramblings, Part 3 -- April 28, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Open book test: Warren says he may buy back $100 billion of his own stock. No time frame. Berkshire repurchased $1.3 billion of its stock last year, after Buffett loosened the company's buyback criteria.

Is the Permian played out? From Rigzone staff so you know this is going to be good. Link here. Two takeaways:

• the takeaway problem in the Permian is being solved
• IEA: we have not seen the full impact of the shale revolution yet”

Amazon: "The Real Nightmare On Elm Street" -- Zero Hedge --

In what is being called a "nightmare come true" for freight brokers and carriers, Amazon did what it traditionally does every time it enters a new market, and took its own digital freight brokerage platform live while undercutting prevailing market prices by 26% to 33% in the latest deflationary race to the pricing bottom in order to grab market share, according to FreightWaves.

Late last week, Morgan Stanley equities analyst Brian Nowak had predicted this was going to happen, stating: “We see AMZN’s 1-day Prime shipping raising consumer expectations and increasing the cost to compete in e-commerce. Over the long term, we also see this as a Trojan horse for Amazon to grow its next disruptive business… a third party logistics network.”

Amazon already has an extensive network of trucking carriers as it moves an enormous amount of freight across the country. Having their own third-party logistics network was just an obvious next step for the behemoth of a company that relies so much on shipping. The benefits are plentiful for Amazon: they get to hedge against the volatile price of trucking capacity and they get to expand their infrastructure, while turning part of their costs into revenue. Amazon is already a top 10 international freight forwarder for Asian ocean freight inbound to North America.

Sophia with two friends:

Sunday Night Ramblings, Part 2 -- April 28, 2019

25 cents: that's what some cities in California now charge customers who do not use reusable coffee cups. That's fine. I now make my coffee at home; put it in a reusable Starbucks "thermos" and take it to Starbucks. Saving about $1.90 every morning. Next: bring toast and jam from home and forego the chocolate croissant. LOL. That will save another $2.00 every morning.

Who says America isn't great?

Frozen over: "Northwest Passage" frozen over. Tours canceled.

No mystery: high California gasoline prices should be no mystery -- Motley Fool. This is a good article. Governor Newsome taking a page out of Governor Brown's playbook.

Open book test, from a reader, this link:

I came across this very useful GUI illustration of power plants status worldwide. The data can be viewed by subcategories such as by nation set (e.g., European Economic Union, China, etc.). This helps defeat several notions floating around and touted by environmentalists. It is easy to see which groups of people are preparing for a low cost economic future with cost effective electric energy; versus, which are doing the opposite.

Stock market records: but it's a different kind of boom. Wow, how long have "we" been talking about inflation?

The major difference between now and last September is the outlook for inflation. In the autumn investors thought inflation would be at or above the Fed’s target, with a risk that the tight jobs market would lead to a spiral of rising wages and higher prices.

Investors now think inflation will be lower for longer, but not so low that deflation will again be a threat. The probability of inflation above 3% over the next five years has dropped from one-in-five in September to just one-in-10, according to probabilities derived from options markets by the Minneapolis Fed, after matching its post-2008 low at the start of this year. Meanwhile the implied chance of inflation being below 1%, dangerously close to deflation—briefly feared during the December in panic—has receded back to where it stood in September.

GDP: lots of "back and forth" recently about first reading, 1Q19, US GDP. Here's another story, this one from The WSJ:

For much of past year, it looked plausible that a faster-growing U.S. economy was simply running on a sugar high of temporarily elevated demand.

Now signs are emerging that the supply side of the economy—the workers and the tools and machines they use to produce goods and services—is becoming energized, improving the chances that faster growth can be sustained.

It’s not a sure thing. It could fade. It’s also not clear who or what deserves credit for driving it, but it’s a great development for Americans if it continues, regardless of your political coloring. If sustained, it would mean more income growth in the long-run with less inflation eating away at those income gains.

You can boost economic growth in the short-run by juicing demand, such as with tax cuts or spending increases. But you can only sustain faster growth in the long-run with more workers producing goods and services more efficiently.

Without labor force and productivity growth, demand dissipates on its own absent additional outside stimulus. Or the increased demand strains the economy’s resources, spurring inflation and a central bank response of higher interest rates that in turn slows growth or causes recession.

The "southern surge" will prevent wage inflation.

 

 Southern surge: once the cities in the southwest become saturated, ICE will start sending new immigrants to Iowa and Minnesota.

The Immigrant Song, Led Zeppelin

Sunday Night Ramblings, Part 1 -- April 28, 2019

Wow, I can hardly wait for Monday, only twelve hours away, and I will be back at work, blogging away.

I see WTI is now trading solidly below $63. This should get the price of gasoline down. If not, President Trump will have to have another talk with Prince Salman.

WTI: lots and lots of articles on where WTI is headed. You can probably find whatever you want to find to fit your "worldview."

******************************

Cleaning Out The In-Box

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL:

• name one product you have within arm's length 24/7 -- yup, your Apple iPhone
• earnings preview:
• EPS: $2.37
• revenue: $57.4 billion, down 6% from a year ago
• guidance: $2.08 and $51.93 billion for 2Q19
• sales:
• iPhone units: 42 million
• margins:
• looking for 38%

Pigs: we talked about this a few weeks ago; now The WSJ is reporting that US meat companies are gaining from "hog culling" in China.

Swine fever has decimated China's herds, creating opportunities. Earlier, April 4, 2019: China's production has fallen 10% this year (in line with original post in which production was anticipated to drop to 51 million tonnes from 55 million tonnes).  Let's see what they say now:

China’s agricultural ministry estimated recently that there were 19% fewer hogs in the country in March than a year earlier. Losing that much pork output in the country that is home to half the world’s pigs would cut the global meat supply by some 6% on an annualized basis.

Deep pockets: Big Oil's biggest weapon in the Permian.

Say what? Boeing didn't advise airlines or the FAA that it shut off the warning system. Acident investigators have linked bad data the system is designed to detect to the deadly Ethiopian Airlines and Lion Air crashes. Color me perplexed.

Boeing Co.  didn’t tell Southwest Airlines Co.   and other carriers when they began flying its 737 MAX jets that a safety feature found on earlier models that warns pilots about malfunctioning sensors had been deactivated, according to government and industry officials.

Federal Aviation Administration safety inspectors and supervisors responsible for monitoring Southwest, the largest 737 MAX customer, also were unaware of the change, the officials said.

The alerts inform pilots whether a sensor known as an “angle-of-attack vane” is transmitting errant data about the pitch of a plane’s nose. Accident investigators have linked such bad data to the deadly Ethiopian Airlines crash in March and the Lion Air crash last year; both planes lacked the alert system.

Goldilocks economy: the stock market continues to climb as inflation remains just right. The best thing Jerome Powell could do right now is put more "golf time" on his daily schedule. First, do no harm.

The stock market’s latest leg higher has been fueled by better-than-expected earnings, as well as data suggesting the economy grew faster than initially expected in the first three months of the year. Those reports have offered investors reassurance that the economy is on solid footing after a soft patch had cast some doubt on the expansion’s durability in the final months of 2018.

My favorite company: how Schwab ate Wall Street. The firm was a discount broker for amateurs. Then its CEO turned it into a personal-finance supermarket that's dragging rivals in its wake. I've talked about Schwab and Merrill Lynch in the past few weeks.

When Walt Bettinger’s 3 a.m. alarm sounds, among the first things the Charles Schwab Corp. chief executive does is check how much net new money his company has pulled in over the past 24 hours. Last year, that was an average of $624 million a day—more than its three biggest Wall Street rivals combined.

Schwab was known mostly as a discount broker for amateurs when he took the helm in 2008 from founder Charles R. “Chuck” Schwab. Now it resembles something more like a personal-finance supermarket, offering services for the wealthy and budget-minded alike, at rock-bottom prices, spanning trading, banking and advice, both human and robotic.

Once barely noticed by the denizens of Wall Street, Schwab has amassed a stockpile of client assets that dwarfs those at Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley ’s brokerage arm and UBS Group AG’s Americas unit. Its stock is up 76% since the end of 2007, versus 26% for the Dow Jones U.S. Select Investment Services Index.

India: a few weeks ago I linked a story in which India told Trump: "bring it on. We have plenty of alternative sources for oil. " LOL. Trump called India's bluff. Apparently India is now scrambling.

After the Trump administration’s Monday announcement that the United States would not renew its six-month waivers to third party countries for their continued purchase of Iranian oil, India has been put in an extremely tough position, and it’s still not clear which way the nation will go. Will India defy U.S. sanctions and continue to import Iranian oil, or will the nation’s leaders be willing to lose their third biggest crude supplier in favor of maintaining a good relationship with the United States?

India is the third-largest oil consumer in the world, and nearly 80 percent of its oil demand is met with imported oil. India is also the second-biggest purchaser of Iranian oil, after China. All this is to say that the loss of Iranian oil due to sanctions would be a major blow to the fast-developing subcontinent. India was one of eight countries that has been granted a waiver to continue importing Iranian oil (although in smaller quantities) for a six-month grace period. That period ends May 1st, leaving India (not to mention China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece) in the lurch.

The nuclear option: how to stop transmission-line-forest fires -- shut down the grid. And that's what PG&E plans to do going forward.

When dangerously high winds arise this year, PG&E says it will black out fire-prone areas that are home to 5.4 million people. Not to worry: those folks all have wind and solar energy generators in their back yards.

Deer in the headlights: LA officials trying to explain what happened. Sounds like some people didn't do things -- like didn't get measles vaccinations. From AP News, dumb and dumber:

More than 1,000 students and staff members at two Los Angeles universities were quarantined on campus or sent home this week in one of the most sweeping efforts yet by public health authorities to contain the spread of measles in the U.S., where cases have reached a 25-year high .

By Friday afternoon, two days after Los Angeles County ordered the precautions, about 325 of those affected had been cleared to return after proving their immunity to the disease, through either medical records or tests, health officials said.

The action at the University of University of California, Los Angeles, and California State University, Los Angeles — which together have more than 65,000 students — reflected the seriousness with which public health officials are taking the nation’s outbreak.

Two days one day too long? Amazon plans to make Prime a one day delivery service. That gasp you heard came from Target. Walmart? Look at their aisles. You think those folks use the internet? LOL. No link, the story is everywhere.