Some Parting Shots -- January 19, 2023

Global oil demand: hit a nine-month high in November, 2022. Charles Kennedy.

• we get a lot of bits and pieces but not overall total;
• there could be many reasons for that "nine-month high."

US gasoline demand: link here.

Wow, wow, wow: US crude oil days of supply is now over 30 days. At 30.1, just barely, but it's over 30 days. 

The last time the US had more than 30 days of oil in storage was the first week in June, 2021 -- that's almost twenty months ago. Why isn't gasoline selling for less than $1.99 / gallon here in north Texas? Oh, that's right. Inflation. 

Wow, wow, wow: US crude oil exports -- this appears to be an all-time record. 

The US exported an average of 4.1 million bbls of oil per day in October, 2022. That’s a 49% increase y/y (2.779 million bopd one year ago) and an 18% increase month-over-month. 

Cost of electricity in selected states, October, 2022, residential, cents per kwh:

• New Hampshire: 30.44 (up from 21 cents one year earlier)
• California: 25.49 (up from 22.02 cents one year earlier)
• North Dakota: 11.73 (11.63 cents one year earlier)
• Idaho: 11.24 (10.58)
• Utah: 10.99 (10.46)

Atmospheric CO2, link here. No updates; volcanic activity on Hawaii interfered with CO2 measurements. Last update: November, 2022. 

"Flu season": shortest, earliest "flu season" in recent history. Link here.

Enquiring Minds Want To Know -- January 19, 2023

Sophia is our youngest granddaughter, eight years old, third grade. She and I are joined at the hip, as they say. She knows I'm "ancient," but that seems not to bother her. In fact, she probably thinks of me as something she might find in a museum, and, as such, I'm interesting as well as strange at the same time.

I know she thinks about that a lot.

Sophia loves school and loves her teachers. I assume she can't imagine how empty life would be without school. 

Tonight, from her mom, an exact quote from Sophia, "Way back in 90s, were there schools?"

Break, break.

 It's interesting. After hearing that quote, the dots connect. 

Every day when she comes home from school, every adult asks her the same question, "What did you do in school today?"

I'm beginning to wonder if Sophia thinks adults ask that question because "way back in the 90s" adults  didn't go to school and are curious to know what school is all about.

EVs And The Future -- January 19, 2023

More

January 20, 2023: link here. GM talks its book. Starting to sound like Elon Musk.

Original Post

Link here.

As California goes, so goes the nation, or so they say. If that rings true, the nation is set for a reversal of some of its strictest renewable energy plans, after the Huntington Beach City Council voted to dump its plan for 100% renewable energy.

Huntington Beach, California, is changing the plan it had in place with the Orange County Power Authority (OCPA)—a nonprofit offering clean energy. But its recent history in a rather unfavorable media limelight has given the city council pause.

And Huntington Beach wasn’t the first municipality to pull out—Orange County bailed on the green power authority, citing transparency concerns and a series of ugly audits, and allegations that the authority failed to inform the public that their electricity bills were increasing.

Orange County was set to begin receiving green power from the authority by the end of this year. The cost of having the county pull out is estimated to be around $65 million. 

For Huntington Beach, there were three plans before it when considering a change in plan: to keep the 100% renewable energy plan as is, to go with a “Smart Choice” plan offering 69% renewable energy, or the “Basic Choice” plan that offered 38% renewable energy. They opted for the Basic Choice plan in a vote of 4-3....

.... Huntington Beach’s change of plans follows the launch of the Department of Energy’s $50 million project to help communities transition to clean energy systems—the C2C program.

“With C2C...” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm in a statement earlier this week.

Link here.

Link here.

Al Gore seems to have lost it in Davos this week. He must be following the same stories.

Russian Sanctions -- January 19, 2023

Link here.

Crawdad Season In Texas; Iron Oil Operating With Two New Permits -- January 19, 2023

Wow, wow, wow -- the one movie I cannot watch -- Dr Zhivago.

And now, on TCM, Dr Zhivago.

I will watch what I can. 

Sad beyond belief. David Lean, Carlo Ponti -- only they could have made this movie.

On a more pleasant note: crawdad season in Texas is officially open. Locally, it opened on/about January 17, 2023.

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Back to the Bakken

Biggest surprise today: WTI back over $80 despite EIA data. Again, the markets are looking six months out.

Active rigs: link here.

WTI: $80.76.

Natural gas: $3.216.

Analysis of the Bakken: link here.

Two new permits, #39575 - #39576, inclusive:

• Operator: Iron Oil Operating
• Field: Buffalo Wallow (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Iron Oil has permits for two Buffalo weells in WNW 17-148-100, 
• to be sited 457 FNNL and one weell 579 FWL and one well 629 FWL.

Six permits reneweed:

• EOG (4): three Austin permits in Mountrail and one Wesst Clark permit in Clarks Creek;
• CLR (2): one Lundberg Federal permit (Dunn) and one Salem permit, Williams County;

One canceled permit:

• 31479, PNC, Sinclair, Ocasek 18-19-1H, McKenzie County; Lone Butte.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37862, 856, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 12-34H1, Westberg, t--; cum 6K after nine days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	9	5721	5442	13675	12054	11300	754
BAKKEN	10-2022	3	96	96	753	200	0	200

A Grayson Mill / Statoil Drilled Back In 2021, Finally Reporting Production -- January 19, 2023

The wells:

• 33572, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 8TFH, East Fork, cum 173K 11/22;
• 33575, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 3H, East Fork, cum 175K 11/22;
• 33577, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 XW 1TFH, East Fork, cum 109K 11/22;
• 33564, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 4TFH, East Fork, cum 125K 11/22;
• 33566, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 5H, East Fork, cum 194K 11/22;
• 33568, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 6TFH, East Fork, cum 149K 11/22;
• 33570, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 7H, East Fork, cum 188K 11/11;
• 23033, AL/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 1H, East Fork, t11/12; cum 317K 11/22; very subtle jump in production;
• 23035, SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 2TFH, East Fork,cum 133K 11/22;

Original Post

Finally, a TATD well is reporting production:

• 23035, SI/NC-->SI/TATD-->SI/A, Grayson Mill / Statoil, Jennifer 26-35 2TFH, East Fork, no production data; still SI/NC 11/19; noted to be on TATD, 5/21; first production, 12/21; cum 133K 11/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	6151	6424	14650	18239	18193	20
BAKKEN	10-2022	30	7226	6914	15188	19216	18974	212
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	7633	7622	16783	12426	12309	95
BAKKEN	8-2022	22	6238	6281	12228	13831	13176	633
BAKKEN	7-2022	25	9550	9620	18698	14845	14187	636
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	15096	15024	29946	29077	15978	13062
BAKKEN	5-2022	25	13590	13633	34728	20310	10243	10037
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	14308	14388	33276	20669	20371	272
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	18951	18765	51850	26689	25713	942
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	12044	12114	53700	15234	14731	482
BAKKEN	1-2022	26	14794	15193	92963	19954	19315	615
BAKKEN	12-2021	12	7867	7313	59609	10834	10730	46

A Couple Of Old CLR Hereford Federal Wells Each With A Small Jump In Production -- January 19, 2023

The wells:

• 32351, 1,136, CLR, Hereford Federal 5-20H, Elm Tree, 71 stages; 14.2 million lbs large, small, no ceramic; t8/17; cum 304K 12/20; cum 378K 11/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	5146	5141	5712	18166	16609	1303
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	6771	6862	7430	16782	16368	150
BAKKEN	9-2022	29	7491	7448	8030	22405	20929	1242
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	7625	7562	7766	22760	20834	1706
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	6476	6407	12225	18698	17820	622
BAKKEN	6-2022	29	1542	1533	11163	9419	8516	614
BAKKEN	5-2022	26	1748	1762	4451	10162	8013	1905
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	1465	1474	4435	9639	8770	634
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	2377	2387	3938	12478	11251	907
BAKKEN	2-2022	16	1178	1223	2305	7246	6897	164
BAKKEN	1-2022	26	1861	1849	2047	13372	12900	163
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2316	2358	1582	11984	11617	107

• 32353, 1,558, CLR, Hereford Federal 1-20H, Elm Tree, 69 stages; 25 million lbs sand small/large, t8/17; cum 284K 11/19; TD = 26,786. Drilled back in 2017, still a production profile revealing a small jump in production four years after being drilled; cum 336K 11/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	12	3701	3690	2904	5393	4916	386
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	4490	4633	4611	3447	3160	29
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	7908	7806	6667	13438	12457	739
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	5463	5397	5712	6990	6258	512
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	3344	3330	5187	2771	2451	86
BAKKEN	6-2022	19	1774	1768	2284	1312	1066	77
BAKKEN	5-2022	20	2250	2285	2404	1715	1239	295
BAKKEN	4-2022	26	2559	2491	4400	1593	1260	91
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	2	182	231	216	107	87	2
BAKKEN	1-2022	10	1055	1113	1033	914	788	10
BAKKEN	12-2021	28	2948	2989	5120	2667	2410	22
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	3289	3304	5192	2382	2026	119
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	3172	3116	1123	2683	2425	1

Best And Worst States To Raise A Family -- North Dakota: #4 -- WalletHub -- 2023

Links everywhere.

The WalletHub list here.

Includes an interactive map.

A few:

• Minnesota: 2
• North Dakota: 4
• Nebraska: 8
• Iowa: 9

South Dakota: 14
Montana: 25

Miscellaneous Notes And Links -- January 19, 2023

Pepsi: this is why Warren Buffett "bets" on America. MAGA. Link here.

Best business models, according to Morgan Stanley. Link here. 

Only thirty-eight. At least eight were tech; Intel did not make the list. Only two energy companies made the list and it was an "oil" company. Only one car company? Ferrari. Only one American pharmaceutical company: Eli Lilly. Visa made the list; MasterCard, Discovery, did not.

• Names that caught my eye:
• Apple
• ASML
• Microsoft
• Samsung
• TSMC
  
• Eli Lilly
• Visa 

API vs EIA data: more and more, the API data is completely ignored. Folks wait for the EIA data. 

EV tricylcle: 

• ready to file for bankruptcy. $20,000 for an electronic tricycle. Arcimoto. Eugene, Oregon. Link here. And, here.
  

Cold: forecast for Europe suggests the weather changes next week. 

Russia:

• communism, 50 years, 1917 - 1967, set back Russia for decades;
• Ukraine: ditto. Link here. Direct to the source here.

The Apple Page -- An Update -- January 19, 2023

See this post from earlier this week with regard to the huge Apple announcement earlier this week:

• two Apple products get the new M2 chip
• this particular M2 architecture is/was based on a 5nm chip
• these products were scheduled to be released last fall (Oct/Nov 2022) but Chiese net-zero Covid-19 lock downs disrupted everything;
• two weeks ago Tim Cook made the decision to release these two Apple projects with the M2 chip
• this was a stealth release
• supply restraints persist
• the Mac mini has a small following
• 2020: $899
• 2023: $599, and much more powerful (talk to me again about inflation)
  
• the MacBook Pro -- high-end laptop
• "99%" of Mac laptop users: MacBook Air
• "1%" of Mac laptop users: MacBook Pro (the new M2)

Meanwhile:

• remember: these huge developments were based on 5nm architecture
• now, it's being reported that Apple hardware to be released 2H23 will have the came "capabilities" on 3nm architecture;
• this actually skips 4nm architecture already found in the Apple A16 -- ARM64 SOC chip.

And, then, look at this. That report that Apple hardware to be released 2H23 will be based on 3nm architecture: rumored to be the MacBook Air:

Now, note: at wiki, the current iPhone chip is the A16. Above: the iPhone Pro will likely have the A17 Bionic chip.

Again, repeating:

Apple's chipmaking partner TSMC kicked off mass production of 3nm chips in late December. The M3 chip in the next MacBook Air could be one of Apple's first 3nm chips alongside the A17 Bionic chip in iPhone 15 Pro models later this year.

Moore's law, link here:

Moore's Law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years. The law claims that we can expect the speed and capability of our computers to increase every two years because of this, yet we will pay less for them. Another tenet of Moore's Law asserts that this growth is exponential. The law is attributed to Gordon Moore, the co-founder and former CEO of Intel. 

Apple/TSMC seems to be violating Moore's law ... in a good way.  

January 19, 2023: is anyone paying attention?

*******************************
Milestones

Soon to be three years old. They love when their monthly issue of Highlights shows up.

US Economy -- Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- January 19, 2023

Flashback: Three huge legislative bills passed last year

• Infrastructure, make America great again (IRA)
• Tech ("Chips" bill)
• Spending

Flashforward: the threat of a transatlantic trade war is dominating Davos.

• that's how CNBC is framing it;
• it's much bigger than that; much, much bigger than simply a trade war;
• oh, by the way: those three legislative bills had MAGA written all over them

Random thought:

• 2024 --> if Biden / Kamala win, Kamala will be president by 2027

US economy: why did the market fall 800 points yesterday and another 300 points today?

• retail sales yesterday; Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• jobs report today;
• EIA's weekly petroleum report today;

*******************************
US Economy -- The Story The First

**************************
US Economy -- The Story The Second

 

 

Link here:

• Weekly jobless claims fall 15,000 to 190,000
• Continuing claims increase 17,000 to 1.647 million
• Single-family housing starts rise 11.3%; permits fall 6.5%

************************
US Economy -- The Story The Third

Weekly EIA Petroleum report:

• No SPR releases this past week;
  
• US crude oil in storage is 3% above the five-year average;
• US crude oil in storage increased by a whopping 8.4 million bbls: certainly no urgency in re-filling the SPR;
• imports down 1.1% compared to a year ago
• refiners operating at a pathetic 85.3% of their capacity:
• distillates decreased by almost 2 million bbls last week and are now 20% below the five-year average just as winter is about to hit, and than after, farmers preparing for planting season;
• total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million bbls;
• type of oil matters: and the US has a glut of the wrong kind of oil;
• most discouraging: for the second week in a row, a surprise in this category -- jet fuel; this week, jet fuel supplied was down over 5%
• gasoline demand will be posted later today.

Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Two Days -- January 19, 2023

Flickertail state news: link here.

Active rigs: link here.

WTI: $78.92.

Natural gas: $3.380

Friday, January 20, 2023: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year
39013, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm 16-21 5H,
38733, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-LW-156-94-1819H-1,
38014, conf, Petroshale, Laverendrye Federal 5TFH,
34526, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 6-14-18TFH,
27897, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 14-6H2,

Thursday, January 19, 2023: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 39 for the year
39014, conf, Kraken, Wilhelm LE 16-21 1H,
38688, conf, Slawson, Armada Federal 4 SLTFH,
38015, conf, Petroshale, Sacagawea Federal 4MBH,
27896, conf, CLR, Jersey FIU 13-6H,

RBN Energy: ethane exports driving surge in production and infrastructure. Archived.

What’s the fastest-growing U.S. hydrocarbon? You guessed it — ethane.

Since 2016, ethane production has grown at almost 2.5 times the rate of crude oil or natural gas and 1.5X that of other natural gas liquids (NGLs).

And there’s a lot more upside potential where that came from. It’s entirely demand-pull, meaning that U.S. ethane production growth is being driven by increasing domestic and export demand for the petrochemical feedstock.

Shell’s new steam cracker in Pennsylvania is online, CP Chem and Qatar Energy are planning a new cracker in Orange, TX, and other projects are in the works. On the exports front, both Enterprise and Energy Transfer announced export-terminal-expansion projects in 2022.

All this new ethane demand needs supply, and fortunately the U.S. has the barrels, not only from ever-increasing NGL production, but also from ethane that today is being rejected and sold as natural gas. And the markets will need new pipes, fractionators, and ships to get that ethane to market. With today’s RBN blog, we begin a series to explore what these developments mean for U.S. ethane market players.