Pipelines Don't Matter Until They Do -- April 24, 2017

Link here. Pipeline bringing fuel to northeast Wisconsin will not re-open; delivers fuel to Green Bay area from Milwaukee.

Since its closure, the state has worked with local officials and industry leaders to get fuel to that part of Wisconsin.

Department of Administration Secretary Scott Neitzel says the state will continue working with its partners to develop a long-term solution.

The 56-year-old, 110-mile-long pipeline runs from north of Milwaukee to Green Bay. Pipelines don't matter until they do.

Why Re-Balancing Is Failing -- Part II -- Platts -- April 24, 2017

Platts, link here.  

I have not read this article yet, and may not get to it until tomorrow.

I am curious how my "world view" / myth compares to the analysis provided in this three-part series by Platt.

For me, this is my "world view":

• re-balancing won't succeed in calendar year 2017
• re-balancing unlikely to succeed in 2018
• those investing in the oil sector need to have a very, very long time frame / horizon (note: I am talking about investors, not traders) (very, very long time frame = 10 years or more)

Definitions: I define "success/failure" of "re-balancing" this way:

• the trend for higher crude oil prices is definite and obvious; "everyone" agrees prices are heading higher; headlines in the mainstream media wring their hands over higher oil prices
• the price quoted in the "crawlers" for WTI is clearly well above $60 and trending toward $75 in today's dollars through 2018

It will be interesting how those views compare to Platts.

***************************

Will OPEC Production Cuts Fail?

Rigzone link here.

Again, I have not read the article yet. I am curious how their views compare to mine. 

Whiting, Bakken, And The Driving Season -- Filloon - April 24, 2017

Disclaimer applies: this is not an investment site.

Summary at SeekingAlpha:

• Bakken production continues to improve as costs decrease
• Whiting has shown a significant spike over the past year in production per well
• well design has been the key to Whiting's success as more proppant, shorter stages and more perf clusters provide more production per foot
• the average Whiting Bakken/Three Forks location produces 125K BO in the first 5 months
• given its leverage, hedge position, and potential to increase production it could see a substantial lift in stock price over the driving season

***************************

Most Recent Frack Data From The Bakken

Disclaimer: this does not include all wells completed since March 4, 2017. It generally does not include DUCs. Frack data for DUCs (SI/NC) tends to be released a bit later than frack data for wells coming off the confidential list (conf).

This list is for my purpose only. Do not quote me on this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. I am tracking this data to see how it compares with stories in the mainstream media about completion solutions. It is my hunch that most stories in the mainstream media with regard to completion solutions have to do with the Marcellus / Utica (for natural gas) and the Permian (for crude oil).

The number of stages and the amount of sand has increased for Bakken completion solutions, but it's my observation that the amount of sand being used is much less for fracking in the Bakken compared to that used in the Permian. In addition, the amount of sand used in the Bakken varies widely a) by operator; and, b) by location.

The second column is the NDIC file/permit number.

The fourth column is simply a placeholder to total the number of wells in the list.

The fifth column is the number of frack stages.

The sixth column is the amount of proppant (generally sand, at this point) in millions of pounds.

The last column is the oil field in North Dakota. These are all Bakken/Three Forks wells. All wells are long laterals (about 9,500 feet long, but varies) with an occasional short lateral (e.g., EOG in the Parshall oil field).

Mar 4, 2017	32874	Newfield	1	51	7.6	Sand Creek
Mar 4, 2017	31161	HRC	1	33	4.9	McGregory Buttes
Mar 5, 2017	31570	Whiting	1	44	9.2	Bell
Mar 5, 2017	31187	Enerplus
Mar 6, 2017	32463	SM Energy
Mar 6, 2017	32327	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 6, 2017	31948	Whiting	1	44	9.2	Bell
Mar 6, 2017	31712	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 6, 2017	29790	Enerplus
Mar 6, 2017	25407	QEP
Mar 7, 2017	31704	Whiting				Twin Valley
Mar 7, 2017	25408	QEP				Heart Butte
Mar 7, 2017	32264	Whiting	1	35	7.3	Poe
Mar 8, 2017	25409	QEP				Heart Butte
Mar 8, 2017	27596	Petro-Hunt	1	50	4.8	Llittle Knife
Mar 8, 2017	31708	Whiting	1	35	6.9	Twin Valley
Mar 8, 2017	32119	EOG		DUC	DUC	Parshall
Mar 8, 2017	32457	Hess				Blue Buttes
Mar 8, 2017	32462	SM Energy				Ambrose
Mar 13, 2017	30825	WPX	1	41	6.1	Reunion Bay
Mar 13, 2017	30826	WPX	1	40	6.0	Reunion Bay
Mar 13, 2017	32326	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017	30828	WPX	1	42	6.1	Reunion Bay
Mar 14, 2017	31707	Whiting	1	35	7.2	Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017	31710	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017	32329	Whiting	1	35	10.0	Twin Valley
Mar 14, 2017	32755	XTO	0
Mar 15, 2017	32087	QEP	1	49	10.0	Grail
Mar 15, 2017	32105	QEP	1	49	9.6	Grail
Mar 15, 2017	32107	QEP	1	49	10.0	Grail
Mar 15, 2017	32343	QEP	1	49	9.6	Grail
Mar 15, 2017	32344	QEP	1	49	10.0	Grail
Mar 15, 2017	32345	QEP	1	49	9.6	Grail
Mar 17, 2017	31711	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 18, 2017	31715	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 21, 2017	31706	Whiting	1	35	6.7	Twin Valley
Mar 21, 2017	29601	Lime Rock	1	16	2.4	Cabernet
Mar 22, 2017	32328	Whiting	1	35	7.1	Twin Valley
Mar 27, 2017	31705	Whiting	1	35	7.0	Twin Valley
Apr 8, 2017	32560	Whiting	1	35	7.5	Banks
Apr 11, 2017	32562	Whiting	1	35	9.8	Banks
Apr 11, 2017	32559	Whiting	1	35	9.6	Banks
Apr 12, 2017	31112	Whiting	1	50	15.3	Banks
Apr 18, 2017	32833	Whiting	1	35	7.3	Banks
Apr 24, 2017	32401	QEP				Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017	32402	QEP	1	54	9.7	Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017	32403	QEP				Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017	43404	QEP	1	51	9.6	Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017	43405	QEP	1	51	10.0	Spotted Horn
Apr 24, 2017	43406	QEP				Spotted Horn
			36	40	8.0