The Fallout Continues -- Amazon-NYC Deal Gone Awry -- February 15, 2019

Updates

February 20, 2019: the fallout continues.

February 16, 2019: when our grandchildren ask a question, I tell them to google it or follow the money. In the case of the Amazon-NYC story googling it won't help, at least not yet. Following the money won't help in this case either because Amazon/Jeff Bezos had tons of that. To some degree it's related to money but there's an easier explanation: unions.

Hindsight is 20-20 vision and in this case, the movers and shakers knew that if Amazon did not allow the unions to build HQ2 in Long Island City, it wasn't going to happen. The Verge almost had the story several months ago ... TheVergecamethisclose.

Here's how it played out. Early on, everyone knew that Bezos would not let the unions control the project (we'll get back to the "why" later -- money was a secondary issue -- as mentioned earlier, Jeff Bezos/Amazon has tons of money). So, we start with that one simple thesis: Everyone knew that Bezos would not let the unions control his HQ2-NYC project. [By the way, this was Bezos' Achilles heel: he despised Trump so much he failed to have his people talk to Trump's people on how to get a NYC project done, but that's another story.]

So, the unions aren't going to let Amazon build in NYC if they don't get their way. Senator Schumer and Governor Cuomo knew that and The Verge camethisclose to pointing that out. They either missed it or were afraid of publishing it, thinking they would have egg on their face if they were wrong.

When it became clear that Amazon/Jeff Bezos would not "play ball," the NY unions stopped the project. It was a multi-pronged attacked: in the state senate, a democratic senator led the charge. In Long Island, the unions co-opted Occasional-Cortex, convincing her that the state was actually going to give $3 billion to Amaazon instead of using that money for other state projects. [I have trouble believing that O-C is that stupid, but that's another story for another time.]

There was a term that kept popping up -- "friendly neighbors" -- and that was code for hiring unions and playing by NY rules and NY politics.

But the interesting thing is this: money was a sidebar issue for Bezos. He had tons of it. This is what concerned Bezos: working with the unions and the state, he saw that the project would never be completed. This project would go on for years and year and years because he had deep pockets and the unions saw this as life-time employment.

Exhibit A: the "Big Dig" in Boston, MA.

Bezos: welcome to NY politics. 

Bezos saw that he would be "buying off" every politician and every union official to get this project done. The "friendly neighbors" euphemism explains it all.

And, oh by the way, the whole debacle reveals Bezos' Achilles heel. More on that later.

Later, 12:11 p.m. Central Time: I agree with the writer at The WSJ. For those who live in the flyover states, Amazon's decision to not build in New York is a huge win. It is also a huge win for tech centers outside New York: North Carolina; Texas; Washington (state); California; and, maybe Virginia.

In its announcement, the company said it would continue to invest in its 17 other North American corporate and tech hubs, as well as its forthcoming expansions in Northern Virginia and Nashville. Setting politics and any immediate fallout aside, the decision could significantly benefit America’s tech economy in the long run, say experts in regional economic development.

The answer to overcrowding in Seattle and Silicon Valley wasn’t to build yet another tech headquarters in an already crowded city like New York, but to spread out. The best situation of all, they argue, would be if Amazon were to distribute its intended 25,000 New York jobs across these other sites, where it already employs more than 20,000 people.

Original Post

A comment from one of the articles:

So, apparently there is a lot of construction going on in New York but job creation? I have no idea whether the comment above is accurate. Someone can fact-check it if interested. I am not.

Miscellaneous:

The good news is that democracy is working. It looks like 50% of the folks didn't like Amazon coming to the NYC area for one reason or another and 50% of the folks wanted to see Amazon. So, in the big scheme of things, it's a wash.

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Tree-Clearing

What a massive solar farm does to a forest ... I pretty much thought this was "outlawed" in the US these days. Isn't this called clearcutting or something to that effect, something that timber companies were banned from doing years ago?

 And it looks like this is just the beginning:

Road To California -- June 11, 2017

This is such an incredibly amazing story coming out of California regarding electricity, I'm just going to post the link; maybe come back to it later.

Here's the link: a Central Valley power plant may close as the state pushed new building at customers' expense.

This was absolutely predicted: we called it "the road to Germany."

This story, of course, naturally requires an update of Ivanpah. From Bloomberg. California now says Ivanpah meets "emissions standards" and can continue operating. If you read between the lines, it is easy to see that lawyers and regulators for both sides (the state vs Ivanpah) saw across the table, did some fancy calculations and projections, and came to some sort of agreement. It pretty much means this experiment is not likely to be tried again if Californians have any sense.

Breitbart has another view.

The California Air Resources Board’s most recent analysis reportedly found that during Ivanpah’s second year of operation, carbon emissions from gas, used to focus Ivanpah’s mirrors at night, jumped by 48.4 percent, to 68,676 metric tons.

The joint venture between BrightSource Energy, NRG, Google and Bechtel was approved by the Obama administration as its biggest alternative-energy project on public lands. The project also received $1.6 billion in taxpayer loan guarantees, and $600 million in federal tax credits, to reduce carbon emissions by 400,000 tons of carbon-dioxide emissions per year.

But carbon emissions data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration demonstrats that natural gas consumption at Ivanpah increased by about 7 percent in the first three quarters of 2016, compared to the prior year.

Saudi Arabia No Longer Has Cash For Big Projects; Iran Does; Update On The Glut At Cushing -- RBN Energy -- August 12, 2016

North Texas under heat alert. Real temperature 103 to 105 today; feel like temperature in direct sunlight this afternoon could be 115. I plan to be riding my bike about that time. Maybe I'll wear a cap today. Carry some water. 

Active rigs:

	8/12/2016	08/12/2015	08/12/2014	08/12/2013	08/12/2012
Active Rigs	34	72	194	184	199

RBN Energy: glut at Cushing.

Retail sales flat in July: flat vs 0.4% increase expected. Wall Street trifecta yesterday: Dow, S & P 500, and NASDAQ all hit new record highs on same day (first time that has happened since 1999). Americans have only three places to put their money month-over-month: retail sales; the stock market; ObamaCare. My hunch is that the Wal-Mart crowd -- retail sales were flat in July --is throwing their money into the stock market. A bubble, Trump calls it. Retail sales are flat and ObamaCare is unraveling (it was never "raveled" to begin with), so that leaves the bubble we call the "market."

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Prince Salman Has A Huge Problem 

Anyone paying attention knows that Saudi Arabia is facing a huge cash crunch.

The fact that Saudi canceled a huge solar energy project some months ago spoke volumes. Saudi no longer has the cash for big projects. From Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia "delays" $109 billion solar plant by 8 years. These projects are critical for desalination plants; desalination plants are not "nice-to-have" budget items for Saudi Arabia. They are in the "must fund" column.

It now appears that there is a very good chance Prince Salman's IPO will be a bust if he doesn't turn things around (see below -- the "$2 trillion mistake").

Meanwhile, Saudi's #1 adversary, Iran hardly seemed to miss a beat even under severe sanctions. Now that sanctions have been lifted, Iran is moving forward with huge projects and has gotten back to "full" crude oil production.

Those huge Iranian projects? Not solar energy. Nope, nuclear reactors.

Iran is permitted to pursue the construction of two newly announced nuclear plants under the parameters of last summer’s nuclear agreement, Obama administration officials informed the Washington Free Beacon, setting the stage for Tehran to move forward with construction following orders from President Hassan Rouhani.

Ali Salehi, Iran’s top nuclear official, announced on Thursday that Iran has invested $10 billion into the construction of two new nuclear plants after receiving orders from Rouhani, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled media.

Saudi Arabia can't even "handle" Yemen. That war rages on and Saudi is losing so many tanks in that war, that it did not go unnoticed when they ordered more US tanks to replace what they've lost.

This has to absolutely scare the Hades out of Prince Salman. And unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran has a steady source of income: kidnapping and ransoms, which guarantee as much as a half a billion dollars for four Americans as long as President Obama calls the shots for the DOJ.

And apparently the "$1 trillion mistake" made by Saudi Arabia in October, 2014, could turn into a "$2 trillion mistake" -- if the Salman IPO is a dud. 

In the Mideast, this is the story to watch: the rise of Iran, and Saudi Arabia is watching it very closely, but may not be able to do much about it. We know whom Hillary supports.

Later: it is not going to get any better for Saudi Arabia. Almost everyone agrees Saudi Arabia could become a net importer of oil by 2030. On the other hand, global tight oil production will double by 2040, and most tight oil will come from the United States.  Russia, Canada, and Argentina will each produce a significant amount but nowhere near what the US will produce.

Minneapolis Airport Solar Project Twice The Quoted Rate For Solar Energy Projects At $7 Million / MW; No Problem -- Increase Landing Fees -- No One Will Notice -- December 3, 2015

A solar energy project at the Minneapolis airport came in at twice the going rate for solar energy projects. 

The solar energy project came in at almost $7 million / MW compared to the usual price of $3.5 million / MW and compared to $2 million / MW for wind, and significantly less for natural gas and coal.

From the Minneapolis StarTrib:

Minnesota’s largest solar power project is now generating electricity atop two parking ramps at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

The 3 million-watt system containing 8,705 solar panels went online Tuesday, and is expected to supply 20 percent of the electricity used in Terminal 1 and to cut carbon emissions by nearly 7,000 tons per year, airport officials said. [It would be interesting to know how much carbon is emitted by a/c flying into this airport in one day.]

“It is a big deal for us,” said Dennis Probst, executive vice president for the Metropolitan Airports Commission. [At $7 million / MW -- it is a big deal.]

The $20 million solar project is the first of two at the airport. The commission recently approved a plan to install a 1.3 million-watt solar array atop a parking ramp at Terminal 2, at a cost of $8.5 million. Construction is expected to begin next year.

Both solar arrays are expected to make money immediately for the airport — with 30-year savings of $10 million on the first project, and about half that on the second, smaller project.

The $20 million project for 3 MW = almost $7 million / MW.

The smaller project comes in about the same price / MW. At $8.5 million / 1.3 MW = $6.5 million / MW.

Interestingly enough, the $7 million / MW price tag is similar to the $6 million / MW price tag at a Milwaukee, WI, airport. Something about airports? Not a problem: simply increase the landing fees which will then be passed on to fliers (compare your airline tickets into Minneapolis vs DFW).

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source, and use a reliable calculator. These numbers are so off the scale, I'm sure I made a mistake somewhere. If indeed the numbers are accurate ($7 million/MW), I would think the state's attorney general might want to have an independent auditor / inspector check into the bidding process.

From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":

• Solar: $3 million / MW
• Wind: $2.5 million / MW
• Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

Let's See Where This Goes -- July 27, 2015; Cost Of Intermittent Energy

Penn Energy is reporting: a nuclear power plant in Missouri is shutting down over a "non-emergency" leak.

The Ameren Corp. nuclear power plant in central Missouri was shut down for the second time in eight months Thursday after a "non-emergency" leak was found in the reaction control system.

The shutdown occurred at 1:15 a.m. at the plant near Fulton.

Ameren officials are investigating the cause. Trammel said it was unclear when the plant would restart.

This is a 1,900 MW power plant.

Presidential-wanna-be Hillary Clinton wants to replace this plant with solar panels. At $3 million / MW, the cost to replace this nuclear plant with a solar plant would be $3 million x 1,900 = 57 with 8 zeroes, almost $6 billion. Okay. Whatever. At $4.5 million / MW (see below) = almost $9 billion. Okay. Whatever. [I often make simple errors in arithmetic and my calculator doesn't always have enough zeroes when it comes to solar energy costs.]

From google: As of November 2014, Topaz Solar Farm was the largest PV solar plant in the world at 550 MW. The Desert Sunlight Solar Farm is a 550 MW solar power plant in Riverside County, California. Other large plants are under construction.

The Topaz Solar Farm supposedly cost $2.5 billion ($4.5 million / MW). The develop had to acquire 25 square miles and then went back and acquired another 640 acres.  

Any electricity produced by this plant has to have a "conventional" power plant for a) night-time hours; b) cloudy days; c) two to four hours of start-up time every morning when the solar panels are coming on line. 

By the way, speaking of high-cost solar energy. Does anyone remember this story? -- Where Tim Cook (Apple) paid $6.5 million / MW solar power, this was just earlier this year:

It was just announced this afternoon, apparently during Tim Cook's presentation, that Apple is building another 130 MW solar farm to power in central California. Forbes is reporting: 

First Solar said Tuesday it’s signed a 25-year contract with Apple to deliver solar electricity from a yet-to-be-built project in central California.

Apple “has committed $848 million” for 130 megawatts of energy from California Flats Solar Project in southeast Monterey County, said a press release.

$848 million / 130 MW = $6.5 million / MW.  Disclaimer: you may want to check my arithmetic. I often make simple arithmetic errors. But the story says $848 million for 130 MW of energy; if that's correct, and if $6.5 million / MW is correct, that's horrendous by anyone's standards. See story below. But again, I could be wrong. Deserve Sunlight is costing not enough twice $848 million and is getting way more than 130 MW.

What! NIMBY? -- June 11, 2015

Updates

June 17, 2015: same story is being reported over at Fox News. Clearly a NIMBY issue:

One might expect environmentalists to fight a new power plant, but a new battle being waged by California green groups against a solar facility shows there may be something new under the sun, after all.

A solar-powered plant proposed by industrial giant Bechtel on federal Bureau of Land Management property in the Mojave Desert could supply up to 170,000 homes in Los Angeles with electricity from the sun, but it also would make life difficult for about 100 Bighorn Sheep and other critters, according to the Sierra Club and the National Resources Defense Council. Their concerns have convinced the city not to buy electricity from the 350-megawatt Soda Mountain project.

Original Post

The Los Angeles Times reports:

The city of Los Angeles has dropped plans to buy electricity from a controversial solar plant proposed for the Mojave Desert, delivering a serious blow to the most environmentally sensitive renewable energy project in the state.

City officials said Thursday that the Soda Mountain Solar Project would be too damaging to bighorn sheep, desert tortoises and other wildlife near the site along Interstate 15, just south of Baker and less than a mile from the Mojave National Preserve.

The decision was made after a Department of Water and Power review found that other proposed renewable energy projects would charge the city less for electricity and would have fewer challenges in delivering the power to Los Angeles.

Bechtel Corp., developer of the plant, had hoped that Los Angeles would buy most of the power. Ron Tobler, project development manager for Bechtel, said the company is negotiating with other prospective customers for the electricity.

Analysts said those prospects are remote — and time is of the essence.

If the project does not get a power purchase agreement signed soon, "it will be extremely difficult for it to proceed with development," said Cory Honeyman, a senior solar analyst at the consulting firm GTM Research. That's largely because the window is closing on eligibility for a 30% federal tax credit for the project.

The city's decision came as a welcome surprise to environmentalists.
"The Sierra Club is delighted to see the city do the right thing and choose not to sign a power purchase agreement with this harmful project," said Sarah Friedman, a senior campaign representative with the organization. "We support clean energy, but this is the wrong place to do it."

NIMBY?

I've actually driven by the site; it's huge. I thought this was a done deal.

Gullible Minnesotans And Other Potpourri; This Is Not An Investment Site -- Do Not Make Any Investment Or Financial Decisions Based On Anything You Read At This Blog -- May 28, 2015

The WTI crawler says oil is well above $57/bbl and this is May 28, 2015. Something tells me that huge North Dakota tax break won't take effect.

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Selected quarterly dividends for COP over the years (some numbers rounded):

• February, 1982: 7 cents
• February, 1987: 6 cents
• February, 1991: 11 cents
• January, 1997: 12 cents
• February, 2000: 13 cents
• February, 2004: 16 cents 
• June, 2005: 2/1 split
• February, 2006: 27 cents
• February, 2008: 36 cents
• February, 2011: 50 cents
• February, 2013: 66 cents
• February 2014: 69 cents

There were two more splits since 2005 (which I did not fully understand) and a spin off.

Currently paying 4.5%.

COP came up in a discussion with a family member (in-law) so I thought I would take a look at COP. 

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Unions 

At last minute, unions turn against minimum wage law for those employees who are union workers. Link here. Regular readers can probably figure out the reasoning on this one.

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Minnesota's Grandchildren Will Rue The Day This Was Approved

Twenty-one (21) solar energy sites approved in Minnesota and what does it get you: the equivalent of one small traditional generating station. All those sites will require new transmission lines in and out, and all that traffic and all those fried birds and all that pristine 10,000-lakes scenery interrupted by solar farms in Minnesota.

Here's the map:

The StarTribune is reporting:

Geronimo Energy has won state approval to build solar arrays across Minnesota to serve Xcel Energy electric customers. The $250 million Aurora Solar Project will be, by far, the largest solar generating effort in the state.

Geronimo Energy, an Edina-based renewable energy developer, is authorized to build large solar parks at 21 locations across the state for a combined output of 100 million watts, or the equivalent of a small traditional generating station.

All but one of the solar sites will be bigger than the state’s largest existing solar array in Slayton, Minn., which generates 2 million watts. The largest of the new solar sites, near Paynesville, will generate five times more than that — and cover an area the size of Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis.

One site -- remember, there are 21 sites -- one site will cover an area the size of Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis. 

Meanwhile, folks know solar farms will decimate the value of their vacation homes.

Just down the road, fourth-generation farmer Janelle Geurts said she and her husband, John, were alarmed when a neighbor made a deal with solar developer NextEra Energy Resources. “Honestly, our biggest concern is that we are trading off green growing fields that provide food,” she said.

NextEra? Where have we heard that name before? Oh, yes, this is the renewable energy company that has no wind farms or solar farms in its home stage of Florida, but it loves putting up wind farms and solar farms in North Dakota and Minnesota, buying land from gullible landowners and getting approval from PUCs mandated by legislators. Fast-tracked by the way before anyone catches on.

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UNP Furloughs 900 Workers; Jamie Dimon To Lay Off 5,000

UNP furloughs workers due to less rail activity. The AP is reporting:

The number of shipments Union Pacific has been delivering so far this year is down about 3 percent, which includes a 30 percent drop in coal carloads.

The Association of American Railroads says rail traffic nationwide is down less than 1 percent, but coal shipments are nearly 7 percent lower.

Not to be outdone, JP Morgan will layoff 5,000 employees. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:

The layoffs won’t necessarily mean that overall head count at the bank will continue to fall; J.P. Morgan hires about 40,000 employees each year to fill open positions and add to its new class of analysts, the person said. And the layoffs aren’t anticipated to be as high as last year’s when the bank cut 7,900 mortgage jobs and exited several businesses. 

So, 900 jobs (UNP) and 5,000 jobs (JP Morgan). Seems a bit of headline hyperbole. Rail traffic nationwide is down less than one percent and JP Morgan hires 40,000 employees each year to fill open positions.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Because the granddaughters now spend less time at our apartment now that they've moved into a McMansion, May and I have re-arranged our 700-square-foot apartment to give ourselves more room, removing the "personal space" once reserved for the granddaughters. Wow, it seems we've opened up an area equivalent to a small den.

No sooner had we completed that when our older granddaughter said she was coming over tonight to work on a school project requiring computer, printer, card-making stock, book binding material, sharpies, stickers, etc. We quickly arranged the apartment again for that to be managed efficiently and effectively. I picked her up and brought her over to the apartment, and then to get out of their way I drove down to Starbucks. Normally I ride my bike, but another night of rain is forecast. In Boston I often rode my bike in the rain but that's because rain was the norm in Boston. Here in Texas, not so much. Except for the past three weeks. Also, it was hard to find parking in Boston, and the roads were atrocious with potholes. Except for some potholes on I-35E north of Dallas, I don't drive anywhere in North Texas where there are potholes.

I used to hate automobiles. But I love the little Honda Civic and every time I get in it -- especially at night -- I'm reminded of my cross-country trips to the Bakken. Tonight while pulling unto the frontage road as the sun went down I had fleeting memories of pulling off the freeway on those cross-country trips to stop at McDonald's to blog and catch upon e-mail. 

It looks like I will have another cross-country opportunity soon. The granddaughters -- the two older ones -- and May and I will be driving out to California in late June. The older granddaughter is already working on the itinerary; she wants to spend more time in Sedonia this trip.

The price of gasoline has crept up quietly to $2.65/gallon, least expensive grade in our neighborhood. Diesel runs anywhere from ten cents to twenty cents more per gallon than least expensive grade of gasoline.

Here We Go Again -- Solar Power In The Dead Of Winter In A Northern Latitude State -- March 17, 2015

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. There may be errors below. If this is important to you, a) go to the source; and, b) check the numbers yourself. 

Folks may remember President Obama's visit to Standing Rock Reservation last year.  Today the AP is reporting that the reservation will get $1 million in federal funding for a $2 million solar project that will save the college about 20%/year or about $74,000 / year.

The $2 million will fund a 636 KW solar energy project --

$2 million / 636 KW = $2,000 million / 636 MW = $3.14 million / MW. That's in line with current costs of solar energy:

From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":

• Solar: $3 million / MW
• Wind: $2.5 million / MW
• Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

A reader recently wrote to tell me that in ten years the cost of solar energy would reach "parity" with coal. It should be noted that coal is less expensive than natural gas (above) but in the same ball park. It's hard to sort out the "true" cost of coal energy in the US due to all the Agore fees.

But if a $2 million project (equating to $3 million /MW compared to $865K / MW -- natural gas) is going to save the college 20% ($74,000 / year), it begs the question: what in the world was the college using for energy?

The 636 KW is nameplate capacity; no solar project reaches nameplate capacity. 

North Dakota has lots and lots of natural gas and coal, but not a whole lot of sunshine in the middle of winter ... oh, never mind ... some smart folks have really thought this out...

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At Least It's Hard To Catch

Another four Americans who have come in contact with the "hard-to-catch-disease" are being flown out of Ebolaland to the US. Reuters is reporting. 

Futures Down Another Dollar, Now Below $44 / Gallon WTI -- March 15, 2015; Boston Breaks All-Time Seasonal Snowfall Record; Kennedys Take The Kids Sledding -- Might Be Last Time They See Snow

Breaking news, being tweeted now:

Boston breaks its all-time seasonal snowfall record with 2.9 inches falling in the city Sunday, reaching a total of 108.6 inches - @7News

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Hey, It's Just Cacti

Some idle chatter. Re-posting this from an earlier post:

Another great article -- Renewable Energy: The Vision and a Dose of Reality. This is another great article regarding renewable energy posted back in 2012, and nothing has changed. From the article, observations like this:

Solar power. While sunlight is renewable — for at least another four billion years — photovoltaic panels are not. Nor is desert groundwater, used in steam turbines at some solar-thermal installations. Even after being redesigned to use air-cooled condensers that will reduce its water consumption by 90 percent, California's Blythe Solar Power Project, which will be the world's largest when it opens in 2013, will require an estimated 600 acre-feet of groundwater annually for washing mirrors, replenishing feedwater, and cooling auxiliary equipment. 

To put 600 acre-feet in perspective, back in late 2011, it was estimated that approximately 6 acre-feet of water was used to frack a Bakken well.

So, every year from here on out, enough water to frack 100 Bakken wells will be used annually to wash those mirrors, and that's just one solar farm.

So, some more idle rambling, specifically, a deeper look at that Blythe Solar Power Project, from wiki:

• was to be world's largest solar farm
• originally planned to be 1,000 MW using parabolic troughs
• reduced to 485 MW using photovoltaics

Putting the 485 MW into perspective:

• California has mandated that 33% of the state's electricity must be from renewable resources
• to meet that mandate, 20,000 MW of renewable energy will be needed

485 / 20,000 = 2.5%.

I knew it was bad; I did not know it was that bad.

History of Blythe:

• the California Energy Commission unanimously approved the project on September 15, 2010.
• the Bureau of Land Management cleared the project to go ahead on October 25, 2010.[14] 
• in 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy offered a $2.1 billion conditional loan guarantee to Solar Trust, to reduce the interest on the $2.8 billion cost of building the first half of the project; the offer was rejected by Solar Trust. 
• in 2011, Solar Trust of America announced that the first half of the project would use photovoltaic panels instead of solar thermal power
• Solarhybrid is in talks with First Solar for supply of photovoltaic modules.
• in 2012, Solar Millennium tried to sell its stake in Solar Trust to other German solar energy developer, Solarhybrid; however, this deal collapsed after all three companies filed for bankruptcy protection.
• in June, 2012, NextEra Energy Inc. acquired the project as the top bidder
• in 2013, NextEra Energy submitted a proposal to reduce the project size to three 125 MW sections, and one 110 MW section, for a total of 485 MW; approval was granted in January 2014
• has not yet started construction but with Kaiser Permanente agreements in hand (February, 2015), construction should begin by 2016 -- construction needs to get started by the end of 2016 to qualify for a 30% tax credit
• developers have been given permission to begin mowing vegetation on 4,000 acres and transplant cacti before the nesting season starts for the area's breeding bird population; full approval for NextEra's construction program has not yet gotten approval 

So, now we have some data points:

• 4,000 acres
• 485 MW
• 2.5% California's mandate  

At the link:

The Blythe site holds "relatively intact native habitat" whose conversion to an industrial solar facility can potentially harm nesting birds, especially if that vegetation is cleared while birds are actively nesting in the shrubs and cacti. 

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Just 12 Cents More

For Minnesota:

• 2009 estimated qualified renewable generation: 13%
• 2010 renewable mandate: 15%
• 2025 renewable mandate: 25%; 30% (Xcel Energy)
• Xcel Energy must meet 25% of its standard from wind or solar by 2020 with a maximum of 1% from solar (sic)

Some advocates are now shooting for 40% by 2030, and it would add only 12 cents a month on the bills of consumers by 2030.

The expected concerns over higher utility rates was addressed by the report, which placed the extra cost at 12 cents a month on the bills of consumers by 2030. 

Wow, just 12 cents a month.

About That Decline Rate In The Bakken; Almost 400,000 Bbls In One Year -- November 20, 2014

Updates

April 30, 2018: update on production -- t9/13; cum 977K 2/18; the 21,000 MCF adds 3,000 boe per month, so for example, the 6,209 bo in 2/18 goes to over 9,000 boe in 2/18; cum MCF gas 1,568,427 MCF = 261,000 boe -- so this well has gone over 1 million boe in less than five years.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	6209	6059	99	20396	19722	220
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6960	7009	129	22076	20797	778
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	6911	7012	104	21726	21023	200
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	6783	6834	104	20646	18969	1190
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	7151	7102	102	21556	20641	411
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	6604	6598	100	21201	20204	509
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	7045	7014	127	21402	20345	558
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	6393	6262	100	21049	19963	610
BAKKEN	6-2017	28	6162	6298	90	19608	16839	2325
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	7284	7292	99	21205	20491	210
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	7090	7095	100	19855	19316	51
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	7174	7243	131	20532	19795	248
BAKKEN	2-2017	20	3774	3838	84	15574	14979	285
BAKKEN	1-2017	21	3370	3363	89	13441	12753	355
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	8901	8851	124	30364	28665	1195
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	9473	9658	117	29978	29269	22

 

Original Post

A random update: the permit said "Bakken," but the target was the Three Forks. The well was tested September 23, 2013, just a little over one year ago.

• 25374, 1,414, EOG, Austin 39-324H, Parshall, spacing ICO/1920 acres; 60 stages; 14 million lbs sand;

I am quite sure the application said "Bakken" and the drilling report said "Three Forks," not otherwise specified. EOG has drilled mostly middle Bakken wells in the Parshall, so a Three Forks well is noteworthy in this field. It was drilled a little over a year ago and to date, almost 400,000 bbls of oil.

Note the huge amounts of sand being used (14 million lbs); the number of stages is greater than normal, but note this is a 1920-acre drilling unit with a horizontal about 3,000 feet longer than a typical long lateral (based on my calculations which may be entirely wrong).

Check out the "Bakken decline rate" in this well:

NDIC File No: 25374    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/18/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 32-154-90    Latitude: 48.123901     Longitude: -102.286554
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: AUSTIN 39-3204H
Elevation(s): 2330 KB   2305 GR   2298 GL     Total Depth: 22,349     Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  4/24/2013
Casing String(s): 9.625" 2246'   7" 10042'
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 1094-22287     Comp: 9/18/2013     Status: F     Date: 9/23/2013     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 378,180     Cum MCF Gas: 255674     Cum Water: 14017
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/23/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1414     IP MCF: 936     IP Water: 120

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	25911	25905	375	46226	35480	10279
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	32182	32428	203	49601	36713	12384
BAKKEN	2-2015	20	19101	18750	609	24774	23350	1117
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	29515	29555	186	41405	36825	4079
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	31612	31612	175	43552	41638	1410
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	33471	33491	204	40255	30331	9438
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	37382	37255	358	45912	25965	19446
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	40891	40938	575	39759	24063	15212
BAKKEN	8-2014	15	19162	19248	2698	12333	11853	406
BAKKEN	7-2014	29	39472	39797	1077	32919	27133	5653
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	40257	40197	5907	25064	18670	6250
BAKKEN	5-2014	1	381	0	350	152	149	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	29	27829	28655	129	21775	20407	1227
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	31087	31309	61	22260	18	22092
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	30924	30617	58	19692	0	19554
BAKKEN	1-2014	22	25395	24988	69	13664	0	13565
BAKKEN	12-2013	25	27393	28115	101	14349	0	14242
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	37188	37194	435	18371	0	18231
BAKKEN	10-2013	29	43760	42959	1314	24640	0	24505
BAKKEN	9-2013	12	14441	13778	1243	10696	0	10640

 

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The Wall Street Journal

POTUS immigration EO; top story as expected.

Top US story: Obama administration lied about numbers enrolled in ObamaCare -- now, who is going to be thrown under the bus? Oh, that's right -- the HHS cabinet secretary is an OMB budget bureaucrat; no medical experience. Good at numbers. Until she gets caught.

No sign of inflation.

Snowstorms pound Buffalo.

Several articles on POTUS immigration EO.

Wow, I'm getting tired of this: Keystone's fate may lie not in DC, but in Nebraska.

University of California to raise tuition 5% for each of the next five years. The gap between the haves and the have-nots widens.

Truce? What truce? Ukraine death toll mounts despite "truce."

Here we go again. Manufacturer of defective air bags knew about it in 2005 but didn't start its investigation or warn car makers until two years later.

Movies: latest "Hunger Games" expected to be biggest open of the year.

Ahead of the tape: the windfall from the sharp drop in energy prices isn't being felt evenly throughout the US economy. Great headline, but story hardly worth reading.

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The Los Angeles Times

Lead paragraph in lead story:

In a major change, the program will invite parents of either U.S. citizens or long-term permanent residents to apply for a work permit and a three-year protection from deportation.

That's what everyone is worked up about! Give me a break. How many potentially affected? Five (5) million. Won't even be noticed. About that many Americans signed up for ObamaCare the first year.

On the other hand, this is big news: truck drivers from three (3) companies end strike at Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Didn't we just write about those ports the other day? Reason #26,542 why I love to blog.

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Hell Froze Over

From The Los Angeles Times

The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday denied a renewable energy company's application to build a controversial wind and solar farm in the Mojave Desert's remote Silurian Valley, deciding the sprawling project "would not be in the public interest."

The closely watched decision is considered a bellwether for how the federal agency will handle future requests to develop renewable energy projects outside established development areas.

Jim Kenna, the BLM's California director, made the decision, finding that Iberdrola Renewables' proposal would have industrialized 24 square miles of "a largely undisturbed valley that supports wildlife, an important piece of the Old Spanish National Historic Trail, and recreational and scenic values."

Kenna said he had been discussing the matter for weeks with field personnel and found the evidence "pretty persuasive."

He cited concerns that the project would degrade the quality of the wilderness surrounding the proposed site, located between two national parks. He also noted potential hazards to the desert tortoise and other impacts that could not be mitigated.

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For The Archives

It is amazing how inexpensive Blu-Ray DVDs have become. Yes, I know the younger crowd is watching movies for even less, and streaming them, but one can purchase a Blu-Ray set of three Sean Connery / James Bond movies, Volume 1, and Volume 2, each for about $14.99.  On so many levels the movies are pretty cheesy but two things draw me to them, to watch them over and over: a) the music; and, b) the scenes of beautiful locations around the world. Tonight, "From Russia With Love," reminded me our visits to Istanbul when we were assigned to Turkey for a couple of years.

Tesla Motors Batteries To Provide Backup Power For Solar Panel Customers

Zack's at Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

Tesla Motors, Inc.’s batteries will be offered along with SolarCity Corporation’s commercial solar systems. Tesla’s batteries will be providing a backup power source to its customers and support in reducing the consumption of electricity and hence the electric bill.

Solar systems need to depend on sunlight. However, Tesla’s batteries will help the customers in times of solar blackout as well. In addition, Tesla’s batteries will provide an alternative source of energy during power cuts. The batteries will help the functioning of critical systems for several hours or for several days if it gets charged from the solar energy during the day time.

Moreover, commercial consumers have to pay charges for the entire amount of electricity they may need from the grid at any one time. This is known as demand charges in the electric industry. The solar panels and Tesla’s battery packs intend to reduce those demand charges. It is expected that the addition of Tesla’s batteries will reduce demand charges by 20%.

Except for the occasional battery fire and loss of home or business, this sounds like an incredibly great idea. 

World's Largest Solar Farm To Be Downsized --

A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me this link. BloombergBusinessWeek is reporting:

NextEra Energy Inc., the largest generator of U.S. solar energy, said a project in southern California that was expected to be the world’s biggest will be less than half its initially planned size.

NextEra’s Blythe solar farm will be built in four phases totaling 485 megawatts of capacity, according to amended planning documents posted today on the California Energy Commission’s website. It was initially proposed as a 1,000- megawatt project.
NextEra is downsizing the project to streamline the permitting process and reduce its environmental impact, according to the filing. The capital cost may be as much as $1.13 billion.

NextEra received approval June 27 from a bankruptcy court to purchase Blythe from the former developer, the bankrupt Solar Trust of America LLC.

Not just slightly smaller; not "half" the original size; but, "less than half its initially planned size." Speaks volumes of the energy revolution in the US. 

30-second sound bite: I believe an on-shore wind farm is valued about $1.5 million for megawatt. So, a 485-MW wind farm would have cost about $740 million. [On shore wind; off-shore wind is said to be up to 3X more expensive, though I am unsure of that figure.]

If this is accurate, that the 485-MW solar farm would cost as much as $1.13 billion is significantly more expensive which fits what I know: that solar is much more expensive than wind. $1.13 billion/485 MW works out to 2.3 million for megawatt. 

Several story lines:

• environmental impact. Interesting to note that folks are willing to admit that "green energy" does have an environmental impact
• solar panels recently got very expensive due to tariffs on Chinese panels (in fact, if the panels doubled in cost, and NextEra had committed a certain amount of capital, to stay in budget, they would have had to cut the project in half
• we now see the price of a large solar project
• venture capitalists may be downsizing their interest in green energy in the US (which, of course, means, for green energy to survive in the US will require MORE government assistance

For more on the bankrupt SolarTrust, click here:

April 3, 2012: More on Solar Trust bankruptcy -- it turns out that that the federal government guaranteed $2.1 billion in loans to this company.

In keeping with the recent trend of so-called green companies going into the red, another solar energy company supported by President Obama's top administration officials declared bankruptcy today.

Solar Trust for America received $2.1 billion in conditional loan guarantees  from the Department of Energy -- "the largest amount ever offered to a solar project," according to Energy Secretary Steven Chu -- for a project near Blythe, Calif., but declared bankruptcy within a year. It is unclear how much of the guarantee, if any, was actually awarded.

April 2, 2012: Just when I thought we had seen the end of solar energy bankruptcies, here comes another: Solar (Mis)Trust of America.

And so it goes.

Wednesday Morning Links -- Not The Bakken -- For the Bakken, Scroll Up or Down

Updates

March 11, 2013: French millionaires still leaving the country to avoid taxes; most probably going to Belgium or London. 

Original Post

Wells coming off confidential list have been posted. When you get to the link, scroll down.

Miscellaneous Links/Briefs

Homeless to a billionaire, rags to riches, born in 1944. Grew up in poor single-parent home.  First job at age 9.

From the Los Angeles Times: doomsday for the southern California toll roads. I recall having driven on one of these toll roads. I was amazed at the high toll, and that was years ago. The "freeway" was almost entirely empty. I could tell then that the toll roads were in deep trouble, and that was years ago.

From Yahoo! In-Play: United Tech to sell Pratt & Whitney Power Systems unit to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

From Yahoo! In-Play: Sempra Energy's Sempra U.S. Gas & Power receives final approvals for power-purchase agreement with Southern California Public Power Authority: Co announced that the cities of Los Angeles and Burbank have approved a 20-year agreement to purchase 250 megawatts of solar power from Sempra U.S. Gas & Power's proposed Copper Mountain Solar 3 project to be constructed in Boulder City, Nev., approximately 40 miles southeast of Las Vegas. The Copper Mountain Solar 3 agreement provides the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power with the bulk of the power produced by the solar power plant -- 210 MW -- through an agreement with the Southern California Public Power Authority (SCPPA).  

WSJ Links

Section D: nothing of interest.

Section C: 
New player joins the pension fray: why the interest? Rhode Island's rollback of public-employee retirement benefits has turned the small state into a national battleground over pension.

High energy prices or E&P is spent: bad news for the oil industry in unlucky '13.

Section B: nothing of interest.

Section A: 

Front page story -- unions dealt blow in UAW's home state -- did not read. CarpeDiem.com weighs in -- with graphs that even Detroit high school students should be able to read.

Page 2, huge story, only story on page 2: court backs loaded guns in public -- did read -- the Seventh US Circuit Court of Appeals struck down an Illinois law enacted decades ago which barred people other than those in law enforcement from carrying a loaded gun outside the home or carrying unloaded guns that can easily be reached. This will end up in the Supreme Court.

US judge approves A123 sale to China's Wanxiang. It is interesting to see how familiar the Chinese company names are becoming. I think Americans would warm up to investing in Chinese companies if the names were, should we say, more Anglicized. I assume Wanxiang is pronounced "wan-chang" or "wan-ching." I assume in the not too distant future we will see a Chinese start-up named "Quaxiang." Pronounced "ka-ching."

Hollywood wimps out and makes a formula film -- Holman W. Jenkins, Jr, "Promised Land"

Op-ed: we can't fix the budget in secret. Did not read -- written by a US Senator. Wrong. We can fix the budget in secret. We fixed the US health care system in secret.

Op-ed: French millionaires flee to Belgium. I remember receiving a comment some time ago saying Belgium taxes were higher than French taxes. No source, so not posted. In fact, French taxes are higher than Belgium's: a) proposed high income tax rate, French, 75%; Belgium 54%; b) Belgium has no capital-gains tax on equities; under Hollande, the capital-gains tax rate will go from 20% to 35%; Belgium lacks any "wealth tax." French "wealth tax" will kick in at 0.5% on assets over 800,000 euros.

Busting the trust fraud: Ohio cleans up tort bar's asbestos bankruptcy scam. Did not read.