Two More Trump Nominees Approved By A Landslide -- January 31, 2017

Interior Department, Ryan Zinke, 16 - 6.
Energy Department, Rick Perry, 16 - 7.

I would mention this to my wife, that Rick Perry was approved by the committee, but I look forward to living a few more years. I am unable to think of one person my wife detests more than Rick Perry. Maybe Vladimir Putin, but it would be close.

******************************

Enterprise To Build iBDH Plant In Mont Belvieu

First reported at the blog back in 2013. 

So what's an iBDH plant? Data points:

• a new isobutene dehydrogenation unit
• Enterprise will also start operations of a new propane dehydrogenation unit dur 2Q16
• the new iBDH plant: 425,000 tons/year of isobutylene
• isobutylene: provides feedstock to fill underutilized capacity at Enterprise's exisitng octane enhancement and petrochemical facilities
• isobutylene: feedstock for lubricants, rubber products, alkylate for gasolien blendstock as well as methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) for export
• MTBE banned in the US

Meanwhile, Prince Salman's plan dithers and withers waiting for financing.

More On The ExxonMobil - Bass Family - $5.6 Billion - Permian Deal -- January 31, 2017

Rigzone.

• acreage in "less-developed New Mexico, Delaware basin side of the Permian"
• ExxonMobil bought out the Bass family's 250,000 acres
• will add 3.4 billion of boe reserves; in effect, doubling its position in the Permian to 6 billion boe
• Bass Family: $5.6 billion in shares, along with $1 billion contingency cash payments between 2020 and 2032
• XOM pays 3.51%; 0.0351 x $5.6 billion = $200 million annually in dividends; lotsa money for fine arts in Ft Worth
• the deal: priciest acquisition in the Permian this month
• challenges:
• geology
• BLM

My hunch after XOM reported 4Q16 earnings today: XOM is in deep trouble. What could go wrong?

• "less-developed area of the Permian"
• geology makes it difficult
• BLM makes it difficult (thank goodness Trump is POTUS)

Why does this remind me of Chesapeake's experience in the Bakken?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Making America Greater Than Ever Before -- Amazon To Build First Air Cargo Hub -- January 31, 2017

The press and US politicians cannot keep up with this.

Seventh full business day for President Trump: Amazon.com plans first air cargo hub; facility at Cincinnati / Northern Kentucky Airpot to create 2,000 jobs.

Wall Street Journal.

UPS reported earnings today.

UPS is toast.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Amazon.com:

• first air cargo hub to accommodate its growing fleet of plains
• ramping up to transport, sort, and deliver its own packages
• will lessen dependence on UPS and FedEx, both of whose largest hubs are nearby
• Amazon said it would lease 40 cargo planes, 16 of which are currently in its fleet
• brought on a dedicated network of 4,000 semi trailers to increase trucking capacity 
• has a fleet of citizen courier Flex drivers making deliveries in major metro areas

Oh, by the way, did I say UPS was toast?

• Amazon.com will become ad direct competitor with UPS and FedEx
• $1.5 billion investment; 2 million square feet

Much, much more at the link.

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Harley-Davidson Unable To Man Up

Cancels Trump visit; doesn't want to deal with protestors. Wow. And these guys sell motorcycles to Hell's Angels.

Sounds like another company run by cupcakes and snowflakes.

Remember the video of Donald Trump during the campaign hoofing it across divided highways to reach a rally where protesters had blocked his way?

Maybe Trump can invite the Hell's Angels to the White House.

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Speaking of Cupcakes, Snowflakes, and Hypocrites

Top Story Over At Google Finance -- January 31, 2017

This is life during wartime. I'm waiting for Iran to test the US Navy.

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

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Tit For Tat 

The other day, in response to the "Feinstein-Obama-Trump" ban on refugees, Iran said it was banning Americans traveling to Iran.

Oh, oh.

Iran needs American know-how to run their natural gas and oil fields.

In January, Iran's Oil Ministry published list of 29 international companies qualified to bid for oil and gas projects following the lifting of sanctions under a landmark nuclear accord that went into effect last year.

US Army Has Directed US Army Corps Of Engineers To Issue The Easement -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:02 p.m. Central Time: sock it to 'em.

Remember me?
PennEnergy: ND bill heightens penalties for rioting against oil pipeline. Not yet passed; proposed.

• ten years in prison; $20,000 fine -- double current penaltie

Sounds like current law adequate (5 years in prison; $10,000 fine) if enforced, but generally North Dakota snowflakes and cupcakes in judicial robes let folks off with stern warning -- "Uffda, don't do that again." 

Original Post

 

As a reminder, with regard to DAPL, the chain of command for: the US Army Corps of Engineers

This may be of interest in 2017:

• Secretary of Defense: President-elect Trump will nominate General (ret) James Mattis
• US Secretary of the Army: Eric Fanning, as of May 17, 2016, appointed by the President; no fixed term
• US Under Secretary of the Army: Patrick J. Murphy, as of January 4, 2016; appointed by the President; term length -- no fixed term
• Assistant Secretary of the Army (Civil Works): Jo-Ellen Darcy, appointed by President Obama, 2009; current activities -- cleaning out her office; updating her resume
• US Army Corps of Engineers: Lieutenant General Todd T. Semonite, assumed command May 19, 2016;

With that in mind, this link: US Army Corps of Engineers directed to approve Dakota Access easement.

The acting Secretary of the Army has directed the Army Corps of Engineers to issue the final remaining easement for the Dakota Access pipeline for a disputed crossing at Lake Oahe.

Robert Speer, who was designated as the acting Secretary of the U.S. Army on January 20, 2017, notified Congress Tuesday that the agency will be granting the easement.

The move follows a memo from President Donald Trump on Jan. 24 directing that the agency expedite reviews and approvals for the project, which was proposed to carry Bakken crude 1,172 miles across four states to Illinois, where it can more readily access refineries that handle light sweet crude.

Proponents of the pipeline have said it will take thousands of trucks off the road and represents the safest way of transporting crude, while opponents have questioned whether safety measures at Lake Oahe will be adequate to protect the water, which provides drinking water to the tribe and many others downstream.

Delegates for North Dakota have generally supported completion of the project, seen by industry leaders as critical infrastructure for the Bakken’s future.

Apparently US Secretary of the Army, Patrick J Murphy tendered his resignation January 20, 2017.

I'm having trouble reading the tea leaves, I've haven't really been following this story lately, but what little I've read, the Standing Rock Reservation elders have pretty much thrown in the towel.

One wonders how much the casino has lost over the past few months.

A reader tells me that 600 protesters are due in North Dakota court. How many show up is another issue, but for sure, those 600 are not going to be protesting.

Without those 600 the protesting cause is pretty much dead.

Unless someone finds a judge who wants to put a "stay" on the US Army directive, my hunch is "they" can complete the pipeline in less than a month. 

Minimal Information On Today's Daily Activity Report -- January 31, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/31/2017	01/31/2016	01/31/2015	01/31/2014	01/31/2013
Active Rigs	40	45	146	191	185

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:

• 32766, SI/NC, SM Energy, Thompson Bros Federal 2B-17HN, Burg, no production data,

Eight (8) permits renewed:

• CLR (4): two Gronfur permits; two Gjorven Federal permits, all in Williams County
• EOG (4): four Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County

Apple Crushes Expectations -- January 31, 2017

From Yahoo!Finance, data points:

• shares up 3% after hours in response to news
• revenue: $78.4 billion vs $77.4 billion
• EPS: $3.36 vs $3.21
• iPhones: 78.3 units sold; vs 76.3 forecast
• Apple's highest quarterly revenue ever
• iPhone's biggest quarter ever

From the linked article:

“We’re thrilled,” said CEO Tim Cook in a press release. “We sold more iPhones than ever before and set all-time revenue records for iPhone, Services, Mac and Apple Watch… and we are very excited about the products in our pipeline.”

The big number to pay attention to with Apple earnings these days, as Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley notes, is average selling price (ASP) for iPhone. This time, ASP came in at $694.57, beating the $691 ASP of the first quarter last year, and beating Wall Street expectations of $688.

That’s an all-time high for ASP, indicating Apple devotees bought up iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, despite the controversy over Apple removing its headphone jack.

Wait until tomorrow when all those shorts start covering.

No mention of all that cash overseas.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Apple Watch? Fitbit is history:

Fitbit: to cut 10% of workforce; will miss guidance by large margin; shares down significantly in pre-market trading. AAPL earnings come out tomorrow. If I recall correctly, Fitbit had a bad quarter three months ago, also. Did I mention that AAPL earnings were coming out tomorrow. Link over at CNBC.

Over at Macrumors:

• iPhone 7 is most popular "plus" model Apple has released
• outsold the 2014 iPhone 6 Plus and the 2015 iPhone 6s Plus
• the dual camera appears to have been particularly well accepted by customers
• Apple had underestimated demand for the iPhone 7 Plus, leading to supply and demand issues; impacted sales

Most fun: reading the comments of those folks who simply don't get it.

Apple blows away the analysts. Prior to release:

• • Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
• • Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
• • Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
• • Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
• • Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
• • Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
• • Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
• • Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
• • Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
• • Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion 

The actual: $78.4 billion.

*********************************

Apple Execs

Sultans of Swing.

Sultans of Swing (Dire Straits, Drum Cover by Sina

On The Brink -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 9:59 p.m. Central Time: Mexico raises the price of gasoline (see below); Argentina raises electricity tariffs by up to 148%. Financial Times. Trump is going to run circles around the rest of the world, making America greater than it's ever been.

Original Post 

To the list (Ukraine, Crimean, Baltic, Saudi Arabia, Mideast), add Mexico. In The San Diego Union Tribune today, "the reasons behind gasoline protest in Mexico." Some data points:

• increases in gasoline prices are being accelerated in an ambitious effort to turn around the country's energy sector
• the recent increase will be followed by another increase at the pump in February, 2017
• half the population lives in poverty
• Mexico has a new problem: Trump (Vicente Fox' response on US television certainly did not help the situation)
• along with South African, Mexicans spend the largest portion of their incomes on gasoline (I assume that was before the recent increase in the price of gasoline); gasoline was already heavily subsidized; gasoline tax was the revenue that ran the country
• like Venezuela: one of the world's top producers of crude oil, yet one-third to one-half of the country's gasoline is imported from the United States
• Mexico's treasury has been used to subsidize gasoline -- not education, infrastructure, public services, or health care
• regular gasoline went up 14%; will go up another 8% in February; in fact, in some areas along the border, some consumers felt the price had gone up 50%
• gasoline tax: accounts for 50% of the price at the pump; tax was not decreased despite rise in price of gasoline
• Mexico ranks dead last among OECD nations in collecting tax revenue (similar to problems Greece has)
• daily minimum wage in Mexico: $3.60/day
• Mexican congressmen voted themselves a Christmas bonus: $11,000/senator and $6,500/congressman
• many government officials also receive $250/month in stipends for gasoline -- that's per month (how much do you spend on gasoline each month; something tells me government official are selling these vouchers on the "black market")
• Nieto's approval numbers down to 12%
• value of the peso is falling
• US investment is likely to fall under Trump
• but Nieto and Vicente Fox both say the US needs Mexico more than Mexico needs the US

Maybe. 

Mega-Loads No Longer Allowed On State Roads In Idaho -- This Chapter Closed -- January 31, 2017

This was a big story six years ago when COP and XOM obtained permits to transport massive pieces of oil refinery equipment to the Canadian tar sands.

No more.

Story over at PennEnergy.

Good, bad, or indifferent: oil companies now have clear-cut rules.

From the article, regarding State Highway 12:

The highway runs through the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest and along the Middle Fork of the Clearwater River and its tributary, the Lochsa River. Both rivers are protected under the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act of 1968.

The Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Rivers United and the legal group Advocates for the West sued the U.S. Forest Service in 2013, saying the federal agency had a duty to regulate the giant shipments. In response, a federal judge ordered a halt to the megaloads while the lawsuit worked its way through the courts.

Meanwhile, declining oil prices reduced demand from companies seeking to use the highway for megaloads.

Justin Trudeau no doubt supports this.

***************************

Management 101

How To Surround Yourself With Best People

From: Scott Adams.

The smartest person I know told me that the secret to business success does NOT necessarily involve hiring the right people. We just think it does. 

The real secret to success is firing the people that you discover to be the wrong fit until eventually you END UP with the right people. No one is psychic enough to do hiring right every time. Job applicants are good at misrepresenting themselves. But a good leader knows which employees to fire and does it quickly and humanely.

Trump fires well. We saw him fire campaign managers as needed to restaff for each phase of his campaign. Lewandowski was perfect for the scrappy first months. Manafort was the right campaign manager to get Trump through the nomination process. And Conway was the right pick as his closer.

Apparently Sally Yates was not the right fit. LOL.

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Word For The Day: Cuirassiers

The Private Lives of The Impressionists, Sue Roe, c. 2006

Cuirassiers: armed cavalry; armed, shielded (breastplate, sometimes a backplate); made "famous" during the Napoleonic wars (1870); pistols displaced the lance; and eventually, swords displaced the pistols, the latter becoming secondary to the former.  

Sophia's word/phrase for the day: flying horse.

BP Embraces The Rockies -- January 31, 2017

From Rigzone:

• BP moves its "US Lower 48 headquarters" from Houston to Denver
• BP: "two-thirds of its operated oil and natural gas production and proved reserves in the Rocky Mountain region
• could BP investing in the Rockies revive natural gas interest in that area?
• after a surge in activity from 2005 to 2008, the Rockies natural gas story stagnated due to surge in the Marcellus
• BP: a natural gas company?
• BP: natural gas comprises 80% of BP's "Lower 48" portfolio
• BP: globally, natural gas comprises 50% of its portfolio; wants to reach 60% by end of 2019 
• BP gas projects coming on-line: Trinidad & Tobago; Oman; Egypt; the Shah Deniz 2 project in Azerbaijan
• BP: five "Lower 48" units
• Green River: BP's first horizontal since 2015; 1.4 billion boe estimated
• San Juan Basin: 2.1 billion boe estimated; targeting wet gas in the Mesaverde horizong; gas and oil in the Mancos marine source rock; and, wet gas in the Dakota marine sands; successfully drilled a tri-lateral well "that accessed 14,600 feet of coal"
• some question decision; BP says looking long-term; not short-term
• "Rockies" -- six oil / natural gas basins
• Denver-Julesberg basin -- oil
• Powder River basin -- oil
• Green River Overthrust -- natural gas
• Piceance basin -- natural gas
• San Juan basin -- natural gas
• Uinta basin -- natural gas  

• Rockies:
• Denver-Julesberg (DJ) basin is the only area expected to see robust growth in 2017 -- analyst
• Anadarko and Noble Energy will continue to deploy capital in this basin; highly economic
• Powder River basin: once thought to be "hot" has fallen out of favor
• Uinta: unique properties; requires much higher commodity prices
• Niobrara: should grow in 2017; however, midstream capacity is needed
• Driving all this? US LNG exports

The Bakken: a Rockies basin?

Whiting Looks To Increase Bakken Workforce -- January 31, 2017

This is pretty cool.

Everyone agrees that there is likely to be a shortage of workers going forward in the Bakken.

There are a number of ways to address this challenge.

Whiting is looking at a novel way of increasing the Bakken workforce: more babies.

From northdakotaoilcan, Whiting Petroleum contributed $50,000 towards a new obstetrics room int  a new medical facility at ground zero in the Bakken. Data points:

• Watford City: McKenzie County Healthcare Systems' new medical center
• Howard Bonner Memorial Emergency Room with technology for the best, most immediate and effective response in the region

Tongue-in-cheek, of course, but this tells me that Whiting "corporate" is very, very attuned to their folks working in the Bakken: young, growing families. Good for them.

*********************************

New Hampshire Sees Increasing Electricity Costs As Business Threat

From seacoastonline:

• CAVE dwellers against 
• hydroelectricity from Canada
• transmission lines
• natural gas pipelines
• case study
• Newington gun maker Sig Sauer will locate an ammunition-making operation at a permanent site in Jacksonville, Arkansas
• cited electricity costs in Arkansas are half that of New Hampshire's
• EIA: 
• New Hampshire, residential: almost 20 cents/kwh
• Arkansas, residential: almost 10 cents/kwh
• New Hampshire, commercial: almost 15 cents/kwhArkansas: 8 cents/kwh

XOM: A Huge Miss -- January 31, 2017

Dilbert: the Canadian option. Speaking of which, a security analyst provides rationale for Trump's action. Again, Trump is a step ahead of the politicians. He understands 9/11.

Politics: Trump is expected to "pull out" of the Paris climate agreement by the end of this week. 

Politics: Dems arguing for more "open borders" into the US won't play well in the heartland. Or among New Yorkers. Maybe in Silicon Valley, but that's about it.

Politics: an LGBT-executive order today is expected today. It will be interesting to see who has accepted his invitations to attend the ceremony. Trump usually signs his executive orders in a "reality-show" venue.

XOM: huge miss; 41 cents vs forecast of 70 cents; top line also a huge miss. This helps explains XOM's "doubling down" in the Permian. I still still XOM entering the Permian was "Johnny-come-late" and too-little, too-late. I still think XOM should have bought CLR years ago.

CEO - barista wage gap: Starbucks CEO earns half-billion dollars in nine years; baristas? Not so much. 

**********************

A Little Mythology

Shell sells $4.7 billion of North Sea assets, from Bloomberg. Needs cash to pare debt from last year's acquisition of BG Group, a $54 billion deal. North Sea buyer: Chrysaor.  From wiki:

Chrysaor was the brother of the winged horse Pegasus and son of Poseidon and the Gorgon Medusa. When Medusa was decapitated by Perseus, both Chrysaor and Pegasus were born at the same time. Little is known about Chrysaor; he was considered a stout-hearted warrior, and his name means "he who bears a golden sword".  

Chrysaor is a private company established in 2007; focused on developing and commercializing oil and gas "incremental resources."

****************************

Oil: oil steady as rising US output offsets OPEC-led cuts.

US shale revolution: BP embraces the US shale revolution, Rigzone. Blog posting here.

Wal-mart: expands free shipping, but has long lost the battle with Amazon Prime.

• free; no annual fee
• free shipping applies to orders over $35
• applies only to specific 2,000 items [the Achilles heel in this announcement]
• Amazon Prime applies to "all" orders, more than 40,000 items
• Wal-Mart: "in this day and age, two-day shipping is just table stakes." [Table stakes: the minimum resources needed to enter a market.]

Robots: the new baristas.  Keurig on steroids. I'm not sold. Maybe at high-volume, where speed is not an option -- airport terminals.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

	1/31/2017	01/31/2016	01/31/2015	01/31/2014	01/31/2013
Active Rigs	40	45	146	191	185

RBN Energy: new REX Zone 3 capacity and northeast gas markets, part 2.

The market: futures (Dow 30) imply a 50-point drop  when the market opens. This is still a continuation from yesterday but earnings being reported before market opening are not good.

GDPNow: 2.3 percent for 1Q17 -- January 30, 2017.

COP dividend: although not by much, COP raised quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.265. 

For The Archives -- Post-Shut-In-Production Bump -- January 30, 2017

For the archives.

This well had two post-shut-in-production bumps in production after being taken off-line. In one case, the bump in production was quite significant despite being off-line for less than a month.

The well:

• 18664, 746, Whiting, Eide 5-13H, Truax, t8/10; cum 260K 11/16; 

The graphic:

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Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	3900	3970	3352	9304	9118	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	28	3858	3718	4154	9860	9664	116
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4526	4516	5391	12558	12086	379
BAKKEN	9-2016	29	4845	4825	6841	12849	11939	826
BAKKEN	8-2016	23	2849	3221	2561	6970	4300	2601
BAKKEN	7-2016	26	7054	6732	13120	15513	9322	6114
BAKKEN	6-2016	3	118	202	102	48	47	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	12	1012	1030	475	4241	4204	2
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	2546	2650	1301	11590	11484	16
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2711	2776	1420	11625	11368	165
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	2795	2742	1357	11867	10466	1314
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	2974	2808	1322	11816	11097	626
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	2900	3346	1325	11570	11277	200
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	2736	2499	1137	10110	9905	115
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	3162	3134	1342	12881	12625	165
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	2811	2888	1455	10721	10586	45
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	3243	3278	1530	10645	10491	61
BAKKEN	7-2015	20	1811	1599	959	5045	4806	183
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	2978	3186	1364	8999	8765	145
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	3046	3032	1265	8970	1741	7136
BAKKEN	4-2015	29	3123	3477	1079	8914	4494	4334
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	3442	3454	2286	11755	11371	291
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	3723	4125	2371	13405	13302	20
BAKKEN	1-2015	20	2912	2301	2057	6463	692	5714
BAKKEN	12-2014	30	4549	4791	3554	12393	11016	1287
BAKKEN	11-2014	21	2781	2647	2763	7596	6163	1370
BAKKEN	10-2014	5	694	1169	498	2754	2741	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	4734	4697	3742	15351	15055	206
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	4298	3948	4060	12769	12343	334
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	4247	4120	3892	11346	11141	114
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	4482	4460	4002	13614	12177	1347
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	4800	4729	5360	10999	3902	7004
BAKKEN	4-2014	3	81	0	778	158	0	151
BAKKEN	3-2014	4	757	740	128	11	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	6	558	558	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	7	91	2	218	31	0	10
BAKKEN	11-2013	1	117	189	0	1	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	1	33	33	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	26	1858	1812	1391	5487	3623	1786
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	2240	2221	1586	6579	4747	1741
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	2146	2182	1270	6003	5845	67
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	2397	2873	1183	5856	3080	2687
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	2242	1757	1220	2744	2651	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	2413	2620	1043	5452	5355	14
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	2411	2359	1040	5575	4705	780
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	2363	2203	757	5328	4910	335
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	2925	3001	993	6605	6102	416
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	2954	3070	846	5885	5526	279
BAKKEN	11-2012	11	1310	1077	456	2514	1881	608
BAKKEN	10-2012	30	2526	2689	807	5281	2021	3175
BAKKEN	9-2012	29	2453	2502	857	5381	121	5175
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	2712	2916	1145	6112	1289	4733
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	2558	2778	878	6981	3122	3766
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	2737	2418	1047	6736	4199	2447
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	2885	2956	1055	7021	5743	1185
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	2965	3106	1052	6949	5056	1803
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	3043	2697	1270	5852	4944	817
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	3039	2845	1508	6391	6307	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	3503	3961	1384	7010	6804	113
BAKKEN	12-2011	26	3379	3384	1203	4564	3540	1024
BAKKEN	11-2011	26	3351	3137	1311	4525	3584	941
BAKKEN	10-2011	30	3512	3968	1754	7074	5461	1613
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	3559	3485	2092	7914	5929	1985
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	3825	4131	1880	9669	2646	7023
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	4052	3397	2298	11519	0	11519
BAKKEN	6-2011	29	4453	4767	1880	11212	0	11212
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	4525	4668	1779	10282	0	10282
BAKKEN	4-2011	29	5242	5292	1967	11213	0	11213
BAKKEN	3-2011	28	4755	4092	1179	6422	0	6422
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	3139	3818	1091	7649	0	7649
BAKKEN	1-2011	30	7237	6866	2565	19177	0	19177
BAKKEN	12-2010	21	4690	4387	1491	8519	0	8519
BAKKEN	11-2010	30	6735	7019	2166	13572	0	13572
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	9308	9008	4139	19197	0	19197
BAKKEN	9-2010	27	9861	10079	3526	19148	0	19148
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	17108	17347	6778	34818	0	34818
BAKKEN	7-2010	4	4046	3166	5348	4800	0	4800

Idle Rambling -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 30, 2017

I couldn't possibly be in a better mood. The weather probably has something to do with it.

Some say 2016 was the hottest year on record. I don't know. But after today -- 75 degrees in north Texas -- no wind -- no clouds -- and a perfect day for biking, this is what I have to say about global warming: embrace it. I am unaware of any single person (or married person, for that matter) in north Texas who is upset with the weather. It's my understanding we can expect a similar day tomorrow.

Carpe diem.

Last week we had a bit of rain; I was caught in a thunderstorm; rode home well after dark; found myself in a small creek but the bicycle and I made it. But what a mess. We live in a small apartment, no garden hoses. How do I wash the bike? Some folks in a similar situation go to local car wash. But then I remembered, Sophia lives in a house. With outside water and garden hoses. And, Sophia, who will be three years old in July, loves playing in the water.

Perfect.

Sophia can wash my bike!

A good washing on the patio.

More cleaning and drying; I put the bike back on the rack for easier access. 

Finally, a little cleaning / lubricating spray.

********************************

Freakout

I caught the first four (4) minutes of CNBC's "Fast Money" this afternoon, and I'm sure that's exaclty what put me in such a great mood. The Trump rally is unprecedented. Unprecedented. 20,000.

Today, after an incredible roller-coaster of a weekend, the market lost half-a-percent; some indices might have lost a percent. The "Fast Money" crowd absolutely freaked out. You have got to be kidding. Solidly over 20,000 on Trump's third full business day in office, after being mired at 18,000 for six years under Obama, and today a half-percent loss and folks are freaking out. Professionals, at that. [Update: I was wrong, really wrong, that's why this is not an investment site; see first comment -- six years ago the market was at 11,000. Again, for "professionals" to "freak out" when the Dow pulls back a bit after this incredible run under President Obama and which continued to some extent after Donald Trump was elected, it boggles the mind. I guess everyone was hoping for more. I don't know.]

I need to watch Johnny Depp, Fear and Loathing, Hunter S Thompson. These guys, the "Fast Money" crowd are nuts.

Not only that, the market recovered nicely by the end of day.

Not only that, Hillary is not president.

**********************************

Trump Is Not Like The Rest Of US

Nor is:

• Steve Jobs (RIP)
• Mike Bloomberg
• Richard Branson (Virgin)
• Bill Gates
• Al Davis
• Bill Belichick

Forty-seven percent of Americans can't figure that out. Nor can:

• coastal cupcakes
• Senate snowflakes (GOP and Dems)
• the mainstream media
• Joe Biden 

********************************

Scott Adam's Blog

The Canadian option.

Everything Went Well -- January 30, 2017

After President Trump put the Dakota Access Pipeline back in play, officials from the US State Department, Washington, DC; the governor's office, Bismarck, ND; and, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, US Department of Labor, Washington, DC, flew over the proposed route last week.

At the press briefing after the aerial reconnaissance, all officials said the flight went very, very well.

Photo released later:

Huge thanks to a reader for sending me the photo.

WPX With Permits For Four More Wells In Spotted Horn -- January 30, 2017

Graphic here:

Other wells in this immediate area:

• 28984, 1,849, WPX, Mandaree 24-13HY, t9/15; cum 228K 11/16;
• 28983, 2,222, WPX, Mandaree 24-13HD, t9/15; cum 424K 11/16;
• 28982, 823, Mandaree 24-13 HZ2, Three Forks second bench, 46 stages, 10 million lbs, t9/15; cum 93K 11/16;
• 28981, 1,642, Mandaree 24-13HZ, t9/15; cum 230K 11/16;
• 28875, 1,138, Mandaree 30-31HA, t11/14; cum 243K 11/16;
• 28874, 367, Mandaree 30-31HW, t1/15; cum 123K 11/16;
• 19603, 332, Mandaree 30-31H, t5/11; cum 477K 11/16;

And, yes, there was a small bump in production in #19603 after being off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.

Bakken 2.0: Twenty-Eight (28) Permits Renewed -- January 30, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/30/2017	01/30/2016	01/30/2015	01/30/2014	01/30/2013
Active Rigs	38	45	146	190	186

No wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday.

Seven new permits approved:

• Operators: WPX (4), Whiting (3)
• Fields: Spotted Horn (Dunn), East Fork (Williams)
• Comments:

Twenty-eight (28) permits renewed:

• EOG (9): six Sidonia permits; three LIberty wells; all in Mountrail County
• QEP (5): five Tipi V permits, in McKenzie County
• Resource Energy Can-Am (4): a Strom permit, a Coronet permit and two Marauder permits, all in Divide County
• Murex (3): a Barrett Leigh, a Michael Douglas, and a Patricia Ann permit, all three in Williams County
• CLR (2); two Salem permits in Williams County
• Sinclair (2): two Ersa Federal permits in McKenzie County
• Hunt: a Patten permit in Mountrail County
• Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Lowe permit in Williams County
• Hess: an EN-Rehak-LE permit in Mountrail County

One producing (DUC) reported as completed:

• 31906, 1,670, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum --

Post-Shut-In-Production-Jump -- January 30, 2017

For the archives.

First, the spreadsheet:

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	3638	3620	0	7215	6478	182
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	3839	3811	7	6979	6979	0
BAKKEN	9-2016	27	3200	3265	1885	5668	4668	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	3237	3174	3018	4543	3969	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	26	2760	2758	22	5565	5084	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	4451	4467	17	9286	9106	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	4027	4011	29	2340	1911	243
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	3847	3796	2632	4831	4591	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2777	2772	34	1423	1091	84
BAKKEN	2-2016	12	1865	1849	146	1158	942	120
BAKKEN	1-2016	13	1495	1519	23	1002	847	51
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	3917	3931	62	2574	1409	917
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	3989	3976	4	3036	1900	896
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	4145	4136	72	3938	3620	70
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	3837	3885	2054	3002	2456	306
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	5881	6095	32	6891	6643	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	27	21590	21278	6553	24094	23593	285
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	21	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	5	381	360	83	862	756	26
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	0	0	16	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	1	6	63	17	1	0	1
BAKKEN	12-2014	23	1843	2044	985	3356	3356	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	28	2938	3080	1825	6232	6232	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	5065	4896	2959	7318	7318	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	25	2794	2783	1530	2176	2176	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	26	2343	2273	893	2444	2444	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	3077	3462	1487	7330	7330	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	5786	5494	2435	10337	10337	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	30	5306	5307	2346	3227	3086	141
BAKKEN	4-2014	23	4291	4220	1481	4255	4255	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	26	2720	2545	2347	3040	3040	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	3	19	19	0	2	0	2
BAKKEN	10-2013	3	17	26	0	1	0	1
BAKKEN	9-2013	6	157	162	65	84	26	58
BAKKEN	8-2013	17	602	713	1	209	209	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	12	2088	2120	579	2199	2199	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	8562	8459	2563	4010	4010	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	6309	6289	2925	3347	3347	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	28	4529	4511	3900	299	299	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	6	1285	1801	1028	16	16	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	19	5343	5803	2204	2407	2407	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	29	14256	13679	6442	12397	12397	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	25	10307	9928	4204	3820	3820	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	9	1045	1672	172	59	59	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	29	2059	1576	680	2518	0	2518
BAKKEN	9-2012	15	53	0	889	24	24	0
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	2590	3178	767	2508	2508	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	2924	2869	586	2921	2921	0
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	3011	2878	626	2470	2470	0
BAKKEN	5-2012	28	800	473	181	627	627	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	7	373	701	61	5	5	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	29	1441	1177	169	2	2	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	1158	1188	196	10	10	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	1902	2172	256	716	313	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	1816	1822	256	1493	1090	0
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	2294	2195	611	2687	2297	0
BAKKEN	10-2011	28	2322	2734	549	2671	2303	0
BAKKEN	9-2011	28	2138	2153	629	2747	2386	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	29	2457	2010	511	3640	3267	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	2533	2859	718	3541	3139	0
BAKKEN	6-2011	29	2754	2432	830	4214	3843	0
BAKKEN	5-2011	28	3161	3134	702	3919	3555	0
BAKKEN	4-2011	26	1852	2120	650	2132	1794	0
BAKKEN	3-2011	31	2930	2864	700	3303	2900	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	27	2534	2503	723	2745	2394	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	31	3073	2933	783	3758	3355	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	3134	3004	987	3856	3482	0
BAKKEN	11-2010	29	3145	3122	765	3447	3073	0
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	3345	3992	924	3989	3586	0
BAKKEN	9-2010	30	3392	2826	929	3892	3502	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	3694	3790	1042	3637	3234	0
BAKKEN	7-2010	31	4535	4770	1527	5570	5167	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	27	3427	3187	1285	3322	2977	0
BAKKEN	5-2010	30	3953	4201	902	2000	1610	0
BAKKEN	4-2010	30	3016	2850	448	2000	1610	0
BAKKEN	3-2010	31	3964	3815	900	1406	1003	0
BAKKEN	2-2010	28	3960	3728	1050	4663	2934	1365
BAKKEN	1-2010	28	5610	5697	1682	6916	6558	0
BAKKEN	12-2009	30	5252	5177	4005	7237	2447	4609
BAKKEN	11-2009	14	3194	3517	904	4127	0	3729
BAKKEN	10-2009	31	8000	7820	2406	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2009	30	10644	10533	3870	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2009	31	7700	7476	9649	0	0	0

Observations, no comments:

• 25,065 boe/month, July, 2015
• 6,284 boe/month, October, 2014
• Note: no bump-up in production in May, 2014, despite the well being off-line for 5 - 7 months; it has been said that "all" oil wells show a bump in production when they come back on-line after being shut in for a significant period of time. In fact, production actually decreased after being off-line for significant period of time.
• it should be noted that July, 2015, was this well's best production, doubling production after the well was first fracked; generally, that's when max production is noted -- after first frack

The well:

•  17618, 881, Oasis, Langved 5393 11-3H, t8/09; cum 296K 11/16;

How I found it: