Sunday, December 13, 2020

"Focus On Fracking" Has Been Posted -- December 13, 2020

"Focus on Fracking" has been posted. 

The lede:

  • record drop in oil exports;
  • largest crude build in almost three years;
  • gasoline output at 2-year low;
  • gasoline demand at 2-year low;
  • gasoline supplies jump most in almost three years;
  • distillate build -- already at record levels -- most in six months;

******************************
Story Will Disappear By Noon, Tomorrow

Hillary's advice:

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The WPX Topaz And Rubia Wells In Mandaree Oil Field

Updates

December 12, 2021: production data for these fracked wells now posted. 

*****************************
The Wells

The wells:

  • 37322, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 14 days; cum 108K 1/21; cum 188K 10/21; fracked 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and record low frack with 2.4 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202347210337
  • 37321, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24HA, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 12 days; cum 112K 1/21; cum 176K 10/21; fracked, really, really, fast,9/26/20 - 9/29/20;  and record low frack with 2.5 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020; 23,821 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 60,000 bbls over 30 days;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020235846253
  • 37320, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree, wow, fast frack, 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and, a small frack, 5.1million gallons of water, 83% water by mass; t--; cum 28K over 12 days; cum 145K 1/20; cum 314K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020281828573
  • 37319, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB, Mandaree, fast frack; 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; another small frack, 5.2 million gallons of water, 83% of water by mass; t--: cum 24K over 8 days; cum 202K 1/21; cum 380K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202361411372
  • 37318, loc/A-->F/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT, Mandaree, t--; cum 25K over ten days; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; a small frack at 5.2 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; 25,102 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 75,306 bbls over 30 days; cum 144K 1/21; cum 313K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020249376838
  • 37317, loc/A-->GL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HF, Mandaree, t--; cum 26K in 13 days extrapolates to 60,000 bbls over 30 days; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; only 5 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; cum 184K 1/21; cum 367K 10/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020255466441

There are four producing wells sited in that same section, in the SESE quadrant, and running north:

  • 36264, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HY, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 204K 1/20;  remains off line 10/20; a 30K month; back on line 6/20; cum 303K 10/21;
  • 36263, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HD, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 313K 1/21; remains off line 10/20; a 60K month; back on line 6/20; cum 369K 10/21;
  • 36262, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Rubia 24-13HZ, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, first production, 2/20; t--; cum 316K 1/21; a 56K month; cum 355K 10/21;
  • 20033, IA/144, WPX, Rubia 16-24H, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, one section spacing, t11/11; cum 264K 5/19; remains off line 1/21; best month, 16K; was taken off line 5/19; has just returned to production, 10/20; cum 266K 10/21;

The graphics:




The following are also Topaz wells but they are Equinor wells in Banks oil field.

  • 31466, Equinor, Banks,
  • 31465, Equinor, Banks,
  • 31365, Equinor, Banks,
  • 31363, Equinor, Banks,
  • 31361, Equinor, Banks,
  • 23983, Equinor, Banks,
  • 22902, Equinor, Banks,
  • 22900, Equinor, Banks,
  • 20712, Equinor, Banks,
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Monthly Oil Production Statistics -- September, 2020

This following link is at the NDIC's statistics website:

North Dakota oil production on a daily oil per well basis during the Bakken boom, PEAKED at 105 bbls of crude oil per day per well in December, 2014. 

Production dropped as low as 72 bbls per day per per well during the "Saudi surge," December, 2016.

Daily production gradually climbed back to 97 bbls per day per well by November, 2019, about a year ago.

Then Covid-19 / Chinese flu / the pandemic hit.

By June, 2020, North Dakota oil production dropped to 70 bbls per day per well in June, 2020.

Since then, production has increased:

  • July, 2020: 75 bbls / well / day
  • August, 2020: 79 bbls / well / day
  • September, 2020: 82 bbls /well / day

The screenshot of the spreadsheet for the past few months:


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Futures Looking Good -- Sunday Evening -- December 13, 2020

I saw a report overnight / early this morning suggesting the market would have a great Monday. I did not post that report for various reasons.

Futures don't mean a thing, of course, and this could change in a heartbeat overnight.

But the report suggested the mutual funds, all things being equal, would drive the market higher for the remainder of the year. It was a wrinkle regarding mutual funds I had not heard before. I forget the "wrinkle." 

Be that as it may, this is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


*********************************
Banks Next?

Re-locations are tracked here.

Deutsche Bank talks about possibility of huge moves from Manhattan to Jacksonville, FL, and possibly, Cary, North Carolina. 

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Restaurants In Trouble -- December 13, 2020

Updates

January 26, 2021; Cici's files for bankruptcy.

December 18, 2020: Exception:

Darden Restaurants: indicated annual yield of 1.03% paying 30 cents/share per quarter, today announced a dividend increase to 39 cents/share.

7 / 30 = 23% increase in its dividend. Link here. Record date, 1/8/21; payable date, 2/1/21.

Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; The Capital Grille; Seasons 52; Bahama Breeze; Yard House; Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen; Eddie V's. 

Trading near it's 52-week high.

Original Post

There are approximately 70 restaurants on this list (I counted 67 but did not double-check, so somewhere between 65 and 75). Look at the list. 

Name the one prominent national restaurant that is not on this list. There are several well-known, prominent, nationwide restaurants not on that list but not many.

One restaurant chain that is not on the list surprises me: Cracker Barrel.

Going through this list, observations and the tea leaves suggest:

  • many of these chains were doomed even before Covid-19 (Hooter's, e.g);
  • many of these chains were dying before Covid-19 but might have survived with a "white knight" savior, but Covid-19 will be the final nail in their coffins;
  • many of the "national" chains that survive will become regional brands; some already are, always have been, but more will join the list (Sonic, Cracker Barrel, e.g.);
  • the national restaurants that survive will take a bigger share of the overall market simply because there will be less competition.

For investors: this has huge implications for "sandwich delivery companies," (as one reader calls them), namely DoorDash. 

DoorDash will not save even one of those restaurants on that list. If the restaurants survive, they will survive through a number of innovations including delivery, but delivery won't, by itself save restaurants.

The big reason that DoorDash won't save these restaurants: simply not enough time. These restaurants have been decimated since March, 2020, and it looks like another three months in states like California and New York. 

And if these restaurants don't survive, it's hard to make a case for DoorDash as an investment. Where can DoorDash grow? Perhaps by becoming the delivery choice for existing patchwork of pizza delivery chains. 

Amazon started out as a bookseller. Now Amazon sells "everything."

DoorDash will need to become the Amazon of local delivery: delivering for Walmart, Target, local grocery stores, and all the other local brick-and-mortar stores. 

But wow, that list of 67 restaurants.

For investors: a focus on those restaurants that will survive. Think McDonald's. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 13, 2020

The wells:
  • 37322, conf, WPX, Topaz 24HUL, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202347210337
  • 37321, conf, WPX, Topaz 24HA, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020235846253
  • 36683, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-8, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202250157554
9-20201239517666
8-20201601026009
7-20203500458044
6-20201672621564
  • 37320, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020281828573
  • 30818, conf, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A, Elidah, no production data, 
  • 37319, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202361411372
  • 30817, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 3C UTFH, Elidah, no production data, 
  • 37318, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020249376838
  • 37212, conf,  Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-5, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20201687924555
9-20202158228640
8-20202133921984
7-20202176624308
6-2020
  • 12768
  • 11256
  • 31003, conf, BR, Cleetwood 31-27TFH-A, Elidah, no production data, 
  • 37317, conf,  WPX, Topaz 24-13HF, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020255466441
  • 36684, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-7, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20201983253715
9-20202015638684
8-202027304074
7-20202791744363
6-20201585223504
  • 35730, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2020779924589
9-20201627753989
8-20202434070789
7-20201066824177
6-2020551412141
  • 35729, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-202025645105861
9-202032478102677
8-202050535142201
7-20202568664082
6-20201280829439
  • 35618, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 8T, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20201965261946
9-20202490667616
8-20201898738489
7-20202285553018
6-2020983024018
  • 35614, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 10B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20202844784032
9-20202335962784
8-2020324788
7-20202584562974
6-20201040322516
  • 36685, drl/A, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-6, Beaver Lodge, t--; cum 138K 10/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203122980230401533564788647880
BAKKEN9-20202425092251791195846628466280
BAKKEN8-20203130018299121517651713517130
BAKKEN7-20203132634328702041356359563590
BAKKEN6-20201827481270932328443901439010
  • 35617, drl/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 9B, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202031296072960129437908029060771
BAKKEN9-202030267062669928811749117487338
BAKKEN8-202014573957586730135901352324
BAKKEN7-2020313252332680335068462684304198
BAKKEN6-2020181687616696039306377241510
  • 35591, SI/A, Oasis, Bobby 5502 42-11 4B, Squires,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203116750167742674113739122361426
BAKKEN9-20209147971468723611990988261061
BAKKEN8-202010570858921147845793966592
BAKKEN7-202021134971340423367936893160
BAKKEN6-20202910534104420714240962998
  • 35590, SI/A, Oasis, Bobby 5502 42-11 5B, Squires,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203113065131351967311929106371214
BAKKEN9-2020918223180881970318641166981921
BAKKEN8-2020905271162436
BAKKEN7-202011381938816652266026070
BAKKEN6-202029130911297701016763943726
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 13, 2020

Monday, December 21, 2020:
37322, conf,  WPX, Topaz 24HUL,
37321, conf, WPX, Topaz 24HA,
36683, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-8, Beaver Lodge,

Sunday, December 20, 2020:
37320, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ,
30818, conf, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A,

Saturday, December 19, 2020:
37319, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB,
30817, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 3C UTFH,

Friday, December 18, 2020:
37318, conf, WPX, Topaz 24-13HT,
37212, conf,  Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-5, Tioga,
31003, conf, BR, Cleetwood 31-27TFH-A,

Thursday, December 17, 2020:
37317, conf,  WPX, Topaz 24-13HF,
36684, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-7, Tioga,

Wednesday, December 16, 2020:
None.

Tuesday, December 15, 2020:
None.

Monday, December 14, 2020: 22 for the month; 78 for the quarter, 743 for the year
35730, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B,
35729, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 42-33 7B,
35618, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 8T,
35614, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 10B,

Sunday, December 13, 2020: 18 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 739 for the year
36685, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-6,
35617, conf,Oasis, A. Johnson 5397 43-33 9B,

Saturday, December 12, 2020: 16 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 737 for the year
35591, conf, Oasis, Bobby 5502 42-11 4B,
35590, conf, Oasis, Bobby 5502 42-11 5B,
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Clearing Out The In-Box -- December 13, 2020

US consumer sentiment: rises unexpectedly. Link here.

  • prior: 76.9
  • forecast: 75.5
  • actual: 81.4

People were pouring out of US cities well before Covid-19. Link here. 

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Latinx

About one-in-four US Hispanics have heard of Latin, but just 3% use it. Link here.

Latinx is gender-neutral, an alternate for "Latino" or "Latina."

From the linked article:

Yet the use of Latinx is not common practice, and the term’s emergence has generated debate about its appropriateness in a gendered language like Spanish. 
Some critics point to its origins among U.S. English speakers, saying it ignores the Spanish language and its gendered form. Still, there are examples of the term’s use in Spanish in the U.S. and abroad.
Meanwhile, others see Latinx as a gender- and LGBTQ-inclusive term, reflecting a broader movement within the U.S. around gender identity.

I haven't paid much attention to the new term. I've run across is once in awhile but yesterday saw it in a headline over at the LA Times and was finally curious enough to learn something about it.

My wife's father was of Mexican heritage. I assume his ancestry was Spanish and Native Mexicans. We most often use "Hispanic" when discussing the ancestry of our daughters and grandchildren.

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A Musical Interlude -- December 13, 2020

First, the motorcycles:

The Devil's Daughters
Now a classic with Danny B. Harvey:


See if you can connect the dots. It took me a few minutes. A hint:

And we'll end here:

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An EOG Wayzetta Well Goes Over 800K Bbls Crude Oil Cumuative -- December 13, 2020

The well:

  • 25646, 607, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, t11/13; cum 806K 10/20; off line 3/20; remains off line 4/20; remains off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203121582181807532448240
BAKKEN9-20203022012258882506645820
BAKKEN8-202028204719201383146510230
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20206438491181123311360
BAKKEN2-2020292750275012076753625732
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An Old SHD Well Comes Back Strong -- December 13, 2020

The well:

19296, 2,388, SHD Oil & Gas, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, 62 stages, 15 million lbs sand, spacing ICO, F, t3/15; cum 788K 10/0; a singleton; still producing 5,000 bbls 11/19; only fourteen days, 4/20; remains off line 8/20; back on line for 5 days, 9/20; comes back strong, 10/20; recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203161145747891027202617103
BAKKEN9-20205860709149735019331
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202014182217862410105001050
BAKKEN3-202027385240376241273202732
BAKKEN2-202029542755547085388803888

 

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A Hess Blue Buttes Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- December 13, 2020

The wel;

  • 18104, 1,113, Hess, BB-State a-151-95-1615H-1, Blue Buttes, t11/09; cum 498K 10/20; off line most of 4/19; remains off line 12/19; intermittent, small production 10/19; struggling? remains off line 1/20 -- now listed as IA; back on line as of 4/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20203131573050505397439740
BAKKEN9-20203031513394492393539350
BAKKEN8-20203137553729653453745370
BAKKEN7-20202833163194736340034000
BAKKEN6-202030462145601012538453840
BAKKEN5-20202337353784818371137110
BAKKEN4-20206105886949169160
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
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