Western Canadian Oil Wells And A Musical Interlude -- November, 2023

Locator: 46459CANADA.

Link here.

The pdf link above came from this post.

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The Music Page

Kate Bush. Wuthering Heights.

From wiki:

"Wuthering Heights" is a song by English singer Kate Bush, released as her debut single on 20 January 1978 through EMI Records.

Inspired by the 1847 Emily Brontë novel of the same name, the song was released as the lead single from Bush's debut studio album, The Kick Inside (1978). It peaked at number one on the UK Singles Chart for four weeks, making Bush the first female artist to achieve a number-one single with an entirely self-penned song.

It also reached the top of the charts in Australia, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, and Portugal.

"Wuthering Heights" received widespread critical acclaim and continues to be highly regarded; in 2016, Pitchfork named it the fifth-greatest song of the 1970s, and in 2020, The Guardian ranked it as the 14th-best UK number-one single.The song has been certified Platinum by the British Phonographic Industry (BPI), for sales and streams of over 600,000 units in the United Kingdom.

Bush wrote the song aged 18, within a few hours late at night on 5 March 1977. She was inspired after seeing the 1967 BBC adaptation of the 1847 novel Wuthering Heights.

She then read the book and also discovered that she shared her birthday with author Emily Brontë.

Bush recorded her vocal in a single take.

Kate Bush bio at this wiki page.

EVs -- Finishing Up The Day -- Part 2 -- January 4, 2024

Locator: 46458EVS.

Ford loses EV bragging rights to GM: link here. Best summary to date.

Tax credit ... fading away. Link to The Verge.  

Tax credit ... fading away. Link to Barron's. Really an excellent update.

EVs: destined to fail.

From the linked article:

Sure, sales of EVs keep going up — a record 300,000 cars sold in the US in the third quarter of 2023 were electric — but the pace of adoption has markedly slowed, and analysts have suggested the country is no longer on track to hit the government's sales targets.

The trickle-down effects of this decreased demand are everywhere.

EVs accumulated at dealerships this fall, even as automakers cut prices to try to entice customers.

Automakers have backtracked on their promised investments: Ford delayed $12 billion of its planned $15 billion investment in EV manufacturing capacity, while General Motors delayed production of key EV models and scrapped a $5 billion partnership with Honda to make cheaper EVs. Even Tesla — once the superstar of EVs — announced it would delay a planned factory in Mexico. Auto execs who were once trumpeting the potential of electric cars are even publicly acknowledging that EVs aren't working.

On the hand, from Barron's:

From the linked article:

U.S. sales. Overall sales were flat year over year at just over 625,000 units. Battery-EV sales came in at 19,469 units, up 20% year over year.

Total GM sales came in at just under 2.6 million units, up about 14% year over year. For the full year, BEV sales came in at 75,585 units, up about 90% year over year. Not too shabby. GM has sold more than 100,000 BEVs over the past six quarters; it has six such models, and more, like the lower-cost electric Chevy Equinox, are coming soon.

Still, Tesla sells way more BEVs in the U.S. than GM. The EV giant sold a record 485,000 units in the fourth quarter, perhaps one-third of those were in the U.S. Tesla doesn’t break down sales by region, and industry data providers haven’t aggregated all the BEV sales yet.

Ford, link here:

Ticker, F:

Finishing For The Day -- News, Links -- January 4, 2024

Locator: 46457ECON.

US economy: from Barron's --

From the linked article: 

2023 was a record-breaking holiday season for e-commerce, Adobe says, as price-sensitive consumers flocked to online stores in search of the best deals of the season.

Online spending rose 4.9% year-over-year to $222.1 billion from November 1, 2023, to December 31 this year (2023), according to the latest data from Adobe Analytics.

Ahead of the holiday season, Adobe had predicted sales would tick up 4.8%.

Last week, Mastercard released its own preliminary data, which found that overall holiday sales—which include both online and bricks-and-mortar sales—rose by 3.1% this year compared with the previous one.

Online sales gained 6.3%, Mastercard said, while spending in stores increased by 2.2%. Electronics, apparel, furniture, groceries, and toys were some of the hottest categories, Adobe said, echoing the results of November’s official retail sales report, released in mid-December.

Jobs, from CNBC:  

EVs: destined to fail.

From the linked article:

Sure, sales of EVs keep going up — a record 300,000 cars sold in the US in the third quarter of 2023 were electric — but the pace of adoption has markedly slowed, and analysts have suggested the country is no longer on track to hit the government's sales targets.

The trickle-down effects of this decreased demand are everywhere.

EVs accumulated at dealerships this fall, even as automakers cut prices to try to entice customers.

Automakers have backtracked on their promised investments: Ford delayed $12 billion of its planned $15 billion investment in EV manufacturing capacity, while General Motors delayed production of key EV models and scrapped a $5 billion partnership with Honda to make cheaper EVs. Even Tesla — once the superstar of EVs — announced it would delay a planned factory in Mexico. Auto execs who were once trumpeting the potential of electric cars are even publicly acknowledging that EVs aren't working.

Rivian downgraded: previously reported. This is the Barron's article.

Rivian Automotive stock was downgraded on Thursday. The company needs new models to maintain growth and new models are years away.

Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache downgraded Rivian stock to Hold from Buy. Lache doesn’t have price targets for Hold-rated stocks. A Hold rating, for him, essentially means that Rivian shares should keep up with the market.

Shares were down 0.4% to $23.23 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 futures both traded flat. It’s a small move for a downgrade, but Rivian stock has had a rough start to the year.

Shares dropped 10.1% after the company reported better-than-expected production figures on January 3, 2024.

The move left Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas confused, calling the results fine in a research report. But Rivian stock was up about 40% in December. Profit-taking was part of the decline. Share dropped another 3.7% on Wednesday.

Intel, link here from Barron's:

Mobileye said it expects first-quarter revenue to be “significantly below” the $458 million in revenue it generated in the first quarter of 2023.

The company said the forecast was based on an excess inventory of its EyeQ computer chips that was being held by some of its customers. Analysts were forecasting first-quarter revenue to rise to $557.1 million, according to FactSet, a gap of some $320 million in sales.

Mobileye’s problem boils down to overproduction and channel inventories.

It doesn’t mean that auto makers are slowing the adoption of driver assistance technologies.

“The update is clearly disappointing but doesn’t appear long-term thesis changing,” wrote Citi analyst Itay Michaeli in a Thursday report, who rates shares Buy and has a $72 price target on shares. He still sees growth for Mobileye down the road.

Wall Street sees annual sales hitting $5 billion by 2026, up from about $1.9 billion expected for 2024. Baird analyst Luke Junk rates shares Buy and has a $50 price target for the stock.

Mobileye’s cut reflects 6 or 7 million units of excess inventory, he wrote in a Thursday report. That bubble can be worked through in one quarter, but it’s clearly “incrementally negative.”

And from CNBC: 

Intel and Mobileye relationship here.

Costco: link here.

Costco Wholesale ended 2023 with a bang as holiday shoppers gave the retailer a boost.

Costco’s revenue jumped 9.9% from a year earlier to $26.2 billion in December, 2023.

It marks an acceleration from November’s 5.1% increase.

Same-store sales, which measure sales growth in stores open for more than a year, also rose more quickly, up 8.5% compared with the same period a year ago. In November, same-store sales were up 3.5%. Excluding fluctuations in gasoline prices and foreign-exchange rates, same-store sales rose 8.1%.

Xerox: link here.

Grayson Mill With Four New Permits -- January 4, 2023

Locator: 46456B.

WTI: $72.35.

Active rigs: 32.

Four new permits, #40426 - #40429, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Elk (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for four Alfred North wells, SWNW 17-151-102;
• to be sited 425 FWL and between 2278 FNL and 2398 FNL;

iPad Is The Best -- From The NY Times -- January 4, 2024

Locator: 46455AAPL.

Link here. 

Be sure to read the review at the link. Again, this is a NY Times Wirecutter review.

In the photo below, their mom writes: 

They are taking turns on Khan Academy, a free app for reading and math under 2nd grade.

I did not know if 64 GB would be adequate but the review says it it adequate for most users; it will cost another $150 to upgrade to 128 GB. It seems more than adequate for Judah and Levi. The boys turn four in early March. They are already quite proficient on the iPad. 

By next Christmas, I assume, I will get a second iPad so they each have one .. if they can hold out that long.

Road To Germany -- January 4, 2024

Locator: 46454GERMANY.

We talked about this yesterday. Now, Charles Kennedy weighs in.

From the linked article:

According to Agora’s calculations, only about 15% of the CO2 volumes saved last year constitutes permanent emissions reductions resulting from additional renewable energy capacity, efficiency gains, and the switch to fuels that produce less CO2 or other climate friendly alternatives.

“About half of the emissions cuts are due to short-term effects, such as lower electricity prices, according to the analysis,” the think tank said, noting that “most of the emissions cuts in 2023 are not sustainable from an industrial or climate policy perspective - for example, if emissions rise again as the economy picks up or if a share of Germany’s industrial production is permanently moved abroad.”

“We don’t consider the emissions reductions seen in the industrial sector to be sustainable. The drop in production due to the energy crisis weakens Germany’s industrial base,” said Simon Müller, director of Agora Energiewende Germany.

I measure the health of a country's economy by the energy it uses. From twitter today, this is not a good news story:

Apparently, so do others, link here:

Price of natural gas in Germany, "at the border":

Five-Minute Lunch -- January 4, 2023

Locator: 46453RECIPES.

Personal investing: my buckets -- again, this is not my portfolio. This is simply where / how new money will be / is allocated. Those in "red" are new additions. I try to keep the total to 20 tickers. 

"Movers" should be re-named "trading only." These positions are bought to be held for eight months or less, deciding then whether to hold or sell.  The others have a 5-year holding position and my overall portfolio has a rolling 30-year horizon. When looking at charts for investing purposes, I only "compare" at one-year and five-year histories.

Today, I added to my positions in:

• WMT
• CAT
• ABBV
• TSM
• SWKS
• CVX
• AAPL

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Chili and Spinach

Chili: Yellowstone Angus Beef Chili

Spinach:

• while chili is heating up on stove, grab a large skillet
• spray a bit of Pam on the skillet but then "wipe" it around/off with a paper towel (so the skillet looks dry again, but the Pam is still there)
  
• splash a few drops of water on the skillet (probably a tsp)
• add a huge amount of fresh spinach because it will cook down to a small amount (see pictures)
• sprinkle a bit of soy sauce on the spinach, a tablespoon is probably too much; a tsp too little
• heat on high to get things going and stir (almost) continuously to prevent burning
• when spinach looks about done, remove from heat (or watch if very, very closely to keep it from burning)
• pour chili into bowl, add cheddar cheese (no onions for me) and place spinach on plate
• I like inexpensive red wine with chili

[Note: the Bitburger was from last night. LOL.]

Just Getting Started -- Thursday, January 4, 2024

Locator: 46452B.

Stories on the docket for later today, tomorrow:

• iPad: the best tablet out there; link here.
  
• recession last year? 
• Auto industry marks best year (2023) since 2019; 
• how could so many be so wrong! Pending.
  
• Ford to re-price the F-150: pending.
  
• Chevy Corvette: pending.
  
• Xerox: to cut workforce: pending.
• Walgreen's: beats earnings estimate -- what recession in 2023? Pending.
• huge European supermarket will drop many PepsiCo products; 
• fighting "outrageous" price increases;
  
• US payrolls jump; exceed estimate; what stagflation? Pending.
  
• embiggen and cromulent: pending.
• Biden to choose new VP running mate: tea leaves: pending.
• Rivian downgraded: pending.
• online spending: hits new record. What recession? What stagflation? Pending.
  
• road to Germany; folks are misreading the energy story. Link here. And, here.
  
• blow to Intel: link here and more pending.
  
• links to BRK-B to start the new year: pending.
• one guy I won't watch: pending.
• chips for 2023: pending.
• Equinor, BP say "no" to wind project: pending.
• Permian well performance: pending.
• API numbers: pending.
• EIA weekly petroleum report: see below.
  

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Report

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage: down a whopping 5.5 million bbls; 
• WTI plunges after report; 
• US crude oil inventories now 2% below the five-year average;
• crude oil imports increased; 7% greater than four-week average last year
• refiners: 93.5%
• glut of gasoline in storage
• distillate fuel increased by a whopping 10.1 million bbls and are now only 6% below the five-year average; huge turnaround; what does it mean?
• jet fuel product supplied was up 2.1% compared to same four-week period last year

API data, from yesterday:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.32.

Monday, January 8, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 6 for the year
39929, conf, Neptune Operating, Jacobson 17-8-5 3H,

Sunday, January 7, 2024: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter, 5 for the year
39930, conf, Neptune Operating, Jacobson 17-8-5 2H,

Saturday, January 6, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 4 for the year
39025, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-283H-2,
39024, conf, Hess, GO-Golden Valley-157-96-2833H-3,

Friday, January 5, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year
None.

Thursday, January 4, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Michigan gives Line 5A a nudge, but pipeline still ensnared by controversy.

After a roughly three-year wait for a critical state permit, Enbridge’s Great Lakes Tunnel and Pipe Replacement project for its Line 5 pipeline across the Straits of Mackinac in Michigan has taken a step forward. The Army Corps of Engineers’ permits for the tunnel project would seem to be the only major obstacle standing in the way of construction, but there may well be more challenges ahead. Like a few other oil and gas projects — namely, Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) — Line 5 has become entangled in controversy, including local opposition worried that a spill would irreparably damage their surroundings and spoil the state’s natural resources. In today’s RBN blog, we take a closer look at the Line 5 project, its next steps, and the opposition it continues to encounter.

Ticker ENB: Enbridge has had a great one-month run and pays 7.38%. Whoo-hoo!