Headlines — Going Into Tuesday Morning — November 20, 2023

Locator: 46120HEADLINES.

Hurricanes: whatever happened to the hurricane season this past summer? Crickets.

Renting: single-family home vs apartment. No surprise here, except perhaps the magnitude of the gap.

Fake EVs: taking market share.

EVs: for the urban rich. Very rich. You and I don’t make the cut.

EVs: three articles to be linked in a.m. All three were “front-page” articles in The WSJ.

Cybertruck: deliveries to begin November 30, 2023, a Thursday, exactly one week after Thanksgiving.

Copper: best day in months. Look at this from a year ago and then look at ticker NEM. Compare dividend yield: SCCO and FCX.

NVDA: earnings, Tuesday, after hours. We have to wait all day. Whisper: $3.47. Consensus: $3.18. Consensus revenue: $16.12 billion.

NVDA: closed at an all-time high the day before earnings were to be reported, up 2.3%, topping $504. Up 230% y/y. It’s all about supply vs demand. Can Nvidia keep up? Another must-read article. 

AAPL vs BRK: better to have just owned AAPL. Check 1-day, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 60-month charts.

Eggs: cheaper than they were in 2015 and back to the average 2014 price. Link here.

IRA likely boosting Medicare Part D premiums: premiums could surge in 2024. Could surge as much as 60%. Can Congress step in? I don’t know. It’s an election year.

LNG: Europe looking to US for stable supply of LNG. See commentary of May 18, 2013. Truly amazing: the past decade. Almost exactly ten years ago. Most interesting: no one, it seemed, had any idea how far and how fast technology would grow. Ten years ago was anyone even talking about generative AI?

US energy midstream stock analysis: link here — C-corp vs MLP. Common exercise; something new for me. C-corp: corporation that falls within sub chapter “C” of the Internal Revenue Service code (IRS code).

The “haves” and “have-nots”: the golden age of vaccination. If you know, you know. In the US, it will be personal choice and free market capitalism that will result in supply exceeding demand: outside the US, demand will massively exceed supply. Again, the gap between the US and the rest of the world will widen when it comes to disease and vaccination. Exhibit A: cervical cancer. Must-read article. From the article: 

Vaccines are also a victim of their own success. Immunization currently prevents 3.5 million to five million deaths every year from diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, influenza, and measles, according to the World Health Organization. Because they have been successful in eliminating many of the most dangerous diseases, “we are not alert to the threats that microbes pose to us,” says the Mayo Clinic’s Poland.

Dan Tsubouchi: chief market strategist, SAF Group. Makes twitter great.

Blog: wow, wow, wow. They’re reading the blog. I just posted my thoughts on this subject last evening. Now Barron’s has a great article on same subject and comes to same conclusion. 

MCD: link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

Three New Permits And One DUC Reported As Completed -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46119B. 

I'm going to make a couple of observations which also lead to a number of other comments which I won't make but would connect a lot of dots if I so wished.

Sophia has this week off from school. Normally she would be in camp but all all openings were taken -- so Sophia will be with family or friends all week. Of course she's thrilled. She was with her dad this morning but with me all afternoon. 

We went window shopping and a little Christmas shopping. We must have visited a dozen stores. The first thing I noticed: how "full" the stores were with inventory. It is amazing. Shipping boxes from China were all over the aisles and employees were stocking shelves.

This is so different from two and three years ago when inventory was a huge problem. Much of the problems were due to Covid -- a lot of folks still don't understand the connection -- and if you recall, the huge backlog of container ships from China off the coast of southern California. It was a mess.

But this year, everything is opening up. 

I haven't read or heard any story of inventory shortages -- even the car dealers look in a lot better shape this year than last year. A year ago I lost interest in visiting car dealers because inventory was so limited and there were so few opportunities to deal. Not true this year. With the sales lots looking full, it's now more rewarding to visit car dealers. 

That trickles down to explanations for increased credit card debt. Credit card debt? Sure, I understand the problem and the concern, but the cup being half-full tells me that credit card debt means a lot of folks are out shopping and finding deals and finding stuff that was missing the past two years. 

The analysts suggest otherwise, but the tea leaves suggest the US consumer is ready to spend a lot of money this Christmas. Including Sophia. 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $77.60.

Three new permits, #40347 - #40349, inclusive:

• Operators: Stephens Williston DBA SEG Williston; Neset Consuling
• Fields: Stanley (Mountrail); wildcat (McLean)
• Comments:
• Neset has a permit for a wildcat, NWSW 7-145-83, 
• to be sited 1701 FSL and 399 FWL;
• SEG Williston has permits for two Greenbrier wells, SESW 11-155-91, 
• with both to be sited 330 FSL and one to be sited 1833 FFWL and the other 1866 FWL

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

• 39374, 3,627, MRO, Peggy 24-20H, Bailey, production, 19,495 over six days extrapolates to a whopping 97,475 bbls of crude oil over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	27834	27886	31412	29710	29234	396
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	41826	41801	43106	37301	36990	187
BAKKEN	7-2023	6	19495	19380	22298	14600	14402	136

Well of interest:

• 23980, 576, MRO, Klay Carlson 41-29TFH, Bailey, t6/13; cum 220K 5/23; off line;

• 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 443K 9/12, note recent jump in production; 13,613 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 24K over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	12831	12824	57126	13548	13330	181
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	10036	10082	46841	10320	10233	52
BAKKEN	7-2023	17	13613	13533	83099	13503	13317	128
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1336	1396	670	2696	2286	112
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1244	1236	573	2406	1943	187
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1181	1099	567	2334	1754	301
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	961	985	439	1910	1595	96

Personal Investing -- Update For The Grandchildren -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46118INV. 

Personal investing: usual disclaimer. Disclaimer on this page and throughout the blog.

My bucket list, "percents" are "new money" allocation, not current value, if that makes sense. The percentages vary over time. At one time, 40% of new money went into large dividend-paying cap companies, but in the past year or so, that has switched to tech.

• bought today: AVGO
• I've added UBER to my tech bucket, but have not yet established a position
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

Microsoft Just Acquired Open AI With No Cash Outlay, No Regulator Involvement -- Prepared, Signed, Delivered In 48 Hours -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46117MSFT. 

Disclaimers apply.

MSFT: hits new all-time record today.

Word on the street: 90% of the 700 employees of OpenAI are ready to move to Microsoft.

Value of OpenAI: "market value" went from $30 billion to $90 billion in less than one year

Microsoft hires Altman: here we go. Monday morning. Bigger than any merger announcement. Not on Joanna Stern’s bingo card. Fraught. Can that be used as a noun?

Analysis: Barron’s.

AI failed? Didn’t see this coming?

MSFT: up $5.00. [Later, pre-market trading: MSFT up as much as $7.00.]

***************************
This Is Why Your Local Pharmacy Wants Your Arm

• Time spent with hourly-wage health provider: five minutes.
• Paid to pharmacy for that hourly-wage health provider to administer the vaccine: $120.
  
• Medicare will pay $40.
• Part D insurer will pay the balance:  $80.
  

CLR's Colette Well Drilled Back In 2012 Back On Line -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46116B. 

The well:

• 21899, 1,592, CLR, Colette 21X-18, Dollar Joe, t3/12; cum 292K 9/23; 2753 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 11,798 bbls over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	21	2658	2903	7838	2675	2379	178
BAKKEN	8-2023	7	2753	2430	7992	2601	2590	11
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	1	2	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	112	156	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	30	768	728	754	4251	4251	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	23	1045	1077	944	4495	4460	35
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1112	1077	1018	6000	4651	1149
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	719	819	675	3884	3708	21
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1038	1013	934	5601	4846	450
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	939	905	913	5068	4274	519
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1046	1071	994	5722	5417	0

Two Wells Of Interest In McGregory Buttes -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46115B.  

 From October 27, 2023:

• 38095, conf, Enerplus, Blue 148-93-05D-06H, McGregory Buttes, t5/23; cum 88K 92/23; F; 23K over 11 days extrapolates to 64K over 30 days:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	28	15676	15676	15143	17255	13099	265
BAKKEN	8-2023	13	6330	6331	7510	9114	7827	3
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	15494	15486	19449	21717	18933	65
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	27193	27007	32105	23394	21432	31
BAKKEN	5-2023	11	23451	23407	30116	29602	27779	588
BAKKEN	4-2023	1	225	186	3485	251	137	112

Wells of interest: both wells off line as of 3/23;

• 21751,
• 21752,

Back To The Bakken -- Monday Morning -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46114B. 

WTI: $77.37. Up nicely; up almost 2% over the weekend.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023: 126 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 696 for the year
39776, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,

Monday, November 20, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 19, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1,

Saturday, November 18, 2023: 124 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 694 for the year
39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL,
39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8,
23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94,

RBN Energy: mayhem in LPG export market as drought cuut Panama Canal traffic.

U.S. Gulf Coast LPG exports are sky-high, averaging just under 2 MMb/d in October, with nearly two-thirds of those volumes bound for Asia — a straight-shot trip once a Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) has passed through the Panama Canal. But an unprecedented dry spell has left the canal’s operators — and LPG shippers — in a real bind. The century-old maritime shortcut, which was expanded just a few years ago to accommodate more and larger vessels, uses massive amounts of fresh water, and to help conserve what’s left in the system’s main reservoir, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is ratcheting down how many ships can pass through each day. Worse yet, VLGCs are a low priority compared to other, larger vessels that pay higher tolls. That means that far fewer Asia-bound LPG ships will be using the Panama Canal for who knows how long. Instead, many shippers will need to make far longer, more costly trips through the Suez Canal or around the southern tip of Africa. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what LPG shippers in particular are up against.

Earlier this year, in When the Levee Breaks, we examined the steady and spectacular rise in U.S. NGL production since the advent of the Shale Revolution — from 1.8 MMb/d in 2008 to more than 6.5 MMb/d today — and the drivers behind it. These include the related facts that most drilling is crude-oil-focused, most crude-centric basins are experiencing higher gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), and higher GORs mean more associated gas — and, in many basins (including the Permian), associated gas is highly saturated with NGLs. In a number of other recent blogs, including last month’s Connection, we looked at the critical role that rising LPG (propane and normal butane) exports play in balancing the U.S. markets for those products: Put simply, domestic demand for LPG has been close to flat for several years, so virtually all incremental production needs to be sent abroad.

Headlines — November 20, 2023

Locator: 46113HEADLINES.

Personal investing: usual disclaimer. Disclaimer on this page and throughout the blog.

• bought today: AVGO
• I've added UBER to my tech bucket, but have not yet established a position
  

LA: wow, wow, wow, never uunderestimate the "can-do" attitude of the American worker -- that LA freeway disaster one week ago? That freeway overpass is now fully re-opened, just in time for morning rush hour. Color me impressed! Wow!

Microsoft hires Altman: here we go. Monday morning. Bigger than any merger announcement. Not on Joanna Stern’s bingo card. Fraught. Can that be used as a noun?

Analysis: Barron’s.

AI failed? Didn’t see this coming?

MSFT: up $5.00. [Later, pre-market trading: MSFT up as much as $7.00.]

NVDA: up $2.63.

AMD? Doing just fine, thank you in pre-market trading.

OpenAI: 3rd CEO in three days. Interim CEO lasted two days. It’s possible she may leave OpenAI, also.

Cruise control? CEO resigns.

Big Pharma: Bayer thins out.

Rhine closed: high water. Can’t make this stuff up.

Deathbed: European petrochemical industry. Winner: US, Saudi. In that order. Third place? China.

Visual: semiconductor titans. Shoot! Now everyone knows.

Lousy visual: missed MSFT, TSLA, AVGA. Are you kidding me?

WTI: moving nicely.

Building oil inventories: China. Charles Kennedy. Too early to start talking about $150-oil? LOL.

CVX: up nicely in pre-market trading.

BA: up nicely at open.

Green: all indices in pre-market trading.

Bullish? El-Erian. We shouldn’t see another hike. Not that it won’t happen, but El-Erian advises no new rate increase.

Benched: Jets’ QB — in loss to Denver.

Early Super Bowl game tonight? Two best teams meet in Kansas City. TS a huge Philly fan; now tied to KC’s TE.

USA’s sports capital? Las Vegas looking to grab the golden ring.

But like a Vegas magic act, this one pulled a rabbit out of a hat when it mattered most. The race itself not only went off without a hitch—it delivered the most exciting contest of the season. 

Even the snarky world champion, the Netherlands’ Max Verstappen, could find nothing to complain about. He won his 18th race of the season, ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez. 

Standing in front of the Bellagio fountains, Verstappen proclaimed the race a success, changing his tune from earlier in the week when he said that the whole event was “99% show and 1% sporting event.” 

“It was a lot of fun out there,” he said. “I hope everyone enjoyed it—we definitely did. We’re already excited to come back next year.” 

There was more at stake for Las Vegas, however, than pleasing a petulant Dutchman. 

Successfully staging this F1 weekend was the latest test of the city’s ambition to become America’s sports capital. The motor racing grandstands will barely have been dismantled by the time NBA’s in-season tournament final rolls into town on Dec. 9. And two months later, Sin City welcomes the single biggest sporting event on the U.S. calendar: Super Bowl LVIII.

Saudi loves the sand: huge investor in Las Vegas.

Laser-focused on dividends: OK. Link here. EPD.

AAPL-QCOM update: link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.