Pages

Monday, November 20, 2023

Headlines — Going Into Tuesday Morning — November 20, 2023

Locator: 46120HEADLINES.

Hurricanes: whatever happened to the hurricane season this past summer? Crickets.

Renting: single-family home vs apartment. No surprise here, except perhaps the magnitude of the gap.

Fake EVs: taking market share.

EVsfor the urban rich. Very rich. You and I don’t make the cut.

EVs: three articles to be linked in a.m. All three were “front-page” articles in The WSJ.

Cybertruck: deliveries to begin November 30, 2023, a Thursday, exactly one week after Thanksgiving.

Copper: best day in months. Look at this from a year ago and then look at ticker NEM. Compare dividend yield: SCCO and FCX.

NVDA: earnings, Tuesday, after hours. We have to wait all day. Whisper: $3.47. Consensus: $3.18. Consensus revenue: $16.12 billion.

NVDA: closed at an all-time high the day before earnings were to be reported, up 2.3%, topping $504. Up 230% y/y. It’s all about supply vs demand. Can Nvidia keep up? Another must-read article. 

AAPL vs BRK: better to have just owned AAPL. Check 1-day, 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 60-month charts.

Eggs: cheaper than they were in 2015 and back to the average 2014 price. Link here.

IRA likely boosting Medicare Part D premiums: premiums could surge in 2024. Could surge as much as 60%. Can Congress step in? I don’t know. It’s an election year.

LNG: Europe looking to US for stable supply of LNG. See commentary of May 18, 2013. Truly amazing: the past decade. Almost exactly ten years ago. Most interesting: no one, it seemed, had any idea how far and how fast technology would grow. Ten years ago was anyone even talking about generative AI?

US energy midstream stock analysis: link here — C-corp vs MLP. Common exercise; something new for me. C-corp: corporation that falls within sub chapter “C” of the Internal Revenue Service code (IRS code).

The “haves” and “have-nots”: the golden age of vaccination. If you know, you know. In the US, it will be personal choice and free market capitalism that will result in supply exceeding demand: outside the US, demand will massively exceed supply. Again, the gap between the US and the rest of the world will widen when it comes to disease and vaccination. Exhibit A: cervical cancer. Must-read article. From the article: 
Vaccines are also a victim of their own success. Immunization currently prevents 3.5 million to five million deaths every year from diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, influenza, and measles, according to the World Health Organization. Because they have been successful in eliminating many of the most dangerous diseases, “we are not alert to the threats that microbes pose to us,” says the Mayo Clinic’s Poland.
Dan Tsubouchi: chief market strategist, SAF Group. Makes twitter great.

Blog: wow, wow, wow. They’re reading the blog. I just posted my thoughts on this subject last evening. Now Barron’s has a great article on same subject and comes to same conclusion. 

MCD: link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Three New Permits And One DUC Reported As Completed -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46119B. 

I'm going to make a couple of observations which also lead to a number of other comments which I won't make but would connect a lot of dots if I so wished.

Sophia has this week off from school. Normally she would be in camp but all all openings were taken -- so Sophia will be with family or friends all week. Of course she's thrilled. She was with her dad this morning but with me all afternoon. 

We went window shopping and a little Christmas shopping. We must have visited a dozen stores. The first thing I noticed: how "full" the stores were with inventory. It is amazing. Shipping boxes from China were all over the aisles and employees were stocking shelves.

This is so different from two and three years ago when inventory was a huge problem. Much of the problems were due to Covid -- a lot of folks still don't understand the connection -- and if you recall, the huge backlog of container ships from China off the coast of southern California. It was a mess.

But this year, everything is opening up. 

I haven't read or heard any story of inventory shortages -- even the car dealers look in a lot better shape this year than last year. A year ago I lost interest in visiting car dealers because inventory was so limited and there were so few opportunities to deal. Not true this year. With the sales lots looking full, it's now more rewarding to visit car dealers. 

That trickles down to explanations for increased credit card debt. Credit card debt? Sure, I understand the problem and the concern, but the cup being half-full tells me that credit card debt means a lot of folks are out shopping and finding deals and finding stuff that was missing the past two years. 

The analysts suggest otherwise, but the tea leaves suggest the US consumer is ready to spend a lot of money this Christmas. Including Sophia. 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $77.60.

Three new permits, #40347 - #40349, inclusive:

  • Operators: Stephens Williston DBA SEG Williston; Neset Consuling
  • Fields: Stanley (Mountrail); wildcat (McLean)
  • Comments:
    • Neset has a permit for a wildcat, NWSW 7-145-83, 
      • to be sited 1701 FSL and 399 FWL;
    • SEG Williston has permits for two Greenbrier wells, SESW 11-155-91, 
      • with both to be sited 330 FSL and one to be sited 1833 FFWL and the other 1866 FWL

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

  • 39374, 3,627, MRO, Peggy 24-20H, Bailey, production, 19,495 over six days extrapolates to a whopping 97,475 bbls of crude oil over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023292783427886314122971029234396
BAKKEN8-2023314182641801431063730136990187
BAKKEN7-202361949519380222981460014402136

Well of interest:

  • 23980, 576, MRO, Klay Carlson 41-29TFH, Bailey, t6/13; cum 220K 5/23; off line;
  • 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 443K 9/12, note recent jump in production; 13,613 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 24K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023301283112824571261354813330181
BAKKEN8-202328100361008246841103201023352
BAKKEN7-2023171361313533830991350313317128
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-2023311336139667026962286112
BAKKEN2-2023281244123657324061943187
BAKKEN1-2023311181109956723341754301
BAKKEN12-2022279619854391910159596

Personal Investing -- Update For The Grandchildren -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46118INV. 

Personal investing: usual disclaimer. Disclaimer on this page and throughout the blog.

My bucket list, "percents" are "new money" allocation, not current value, if that makes sense. The percentages vary over time. At one time, 40% of new money went into large dividend-paying cap companies, but in the past year or so, that has switched to tech.

  • bought today: AVGO
  • I've added UBER to my tech bucket, but have not yet established a position

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

Microsoft Just Acquired Open AI With No Cash Outlay, No Regulator Involvement -- Prepared, Signed, Delivered In 48 Hours -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46117MSFT. 

Disclaimers apply.

MSFT: hits new all-time record today.

Word on the street: 90% of the 700 employees of OpenAI are ready to move to Microsoft.

Value of OpenAI: "market value" went from $30 billion to $90 billion in less than one year

Microsoft hires Altman: here we go. Monday morning. Bigger than any merger announcement. Not on Joanna Stern’s bingo card. Fraught. Can that be used as a noun?

Analysis: Barron’s.

AI failed? Didn’t see this coming?

MSFT: up $5.00. [Later, pre-market trading: MSFT up as much as $7.00.]

***************************
This Is Why Your Local Pharmacy Wants Your Arm

  • Time spent with hourly-wage health provider: five minutes.
  • Paid to pharmacy for that hourly-wage health provider to administer the vaccine: $120.
    • Medicare will pay $40.
    • Part D insurer will pay the balance:  $80.

CLR's Colette Well Drilled Back In 2012 Back On Line -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46116B. 

The well:

  • 21899, 1,592, CLR, Colette 21X-18, Dollar Joe, t3/12; cum 292K 9/23; 2753 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 11,798 bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20232126582903783826752379178
BAKKEN8-202372753243079922601259011
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-20230000000
BAKKEN5-20230000000
BAKKEN4-20230000000
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20230000000
BAKKEN12-20220000000
BAKKEN11-20220000000
BAKKEN10-20221220000
BAKKEN9-20220000000
BAKKEN8-202211121560000
BAKKEN7-202230768728754425142510
BAKKEN6-202223104510779444495446035
BAKKEN5-202231111210771018600046511149
BAKKEN4-2022307198196753884370821
BAKKEN3-2022311038101393456014846450
BAKKEN2-20222893990591350684274519
BAKKEN1-20223110461071994572254170

Two Wells Of Interest In McGregory Buttes -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46115B.  

 From October 27, 2023:

  • 38095, conf, Enerplus, Blue 148-93-05D-06H, McGregory Buttes, t5/23; cum 88K 92/23; F; 23K over 11 days extrapolates to 64K over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2023281567615676151431725513099265
BAKKEN8-202313633063317510911478273
BAKKEN7-202330154941548619449217171893365
BAKKEN6-202330271932700732105233942143231
BAKKEN5-2023112345123407301162960227779588
BAKKEN4-202312251863485251137112

Wells of interest: both wells off line as of 3/23;

  • 21751,
  • 21752,

Back To The Bakken -- Monday Morning -- November 20, 2023

Locator: 46114B. 

WTI: $77.37. Up nicely; up almost 2% over the weekend.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023: 126 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 696 for the year
39776, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 5-18H2,

Monday, November 20, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 19, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1,

Saturday, November 18, 2023: 124 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 694 for the year
39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL,
39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8,
23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94,

RBN Energy: mayhem in LPG export market as drought cuut Panama Canal traffic.

U.S. Gulf Coast LPG exports are sky-high, averaging just under 2 MMb/d in October, with nearly two-thirds of those volumes bound for Asia — a straight-shot trip once a Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) has passed through the Panama Canal. But an unprecedented dry spell has left the canal’s operators — and LPG shippers — in a real bind. The century-old maritime shortcut, which was expanded just a few years ago to accommodate more and larger vessels, uses massive amounts of fresh water, and to help conserve what’s left in the system’s main reservoir, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is ratcheting down how many ships can pass through each day. Worse yet, VLGCs are a low priority compared to other, larger vessels that pay higher tolls. That means that far fewer Asia-bound LPG ships will be using the Panama Canal for who knows how long. Instead, many shippers will need to make far longer, more costly trips through the Suez Canal or around the southern tip of Africa. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what LPG shippers in particular are up against.

Earlier this year, in When the Levee Breaks, we examined the steady and spectacular rise in U.S. NGL production since the advent of the Shale Revolution — from 1.8 MMb/d in 2008 to more than 6.5 MMb/d today — and the drivers behind it. These include the related facts that most drilling is crude-oil-focused, most crude-centric basins are experiencing higher gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), and higher GORs mean more associated gas — and, in many basins (including the Permian), associated gas is highly saturated with NGLs. In a number of other recent blogs, including last month’s Connection, we looked at the critical role that rising LPG (propane and normal butane) exports play in balancing the U.S. markets for those products: Put simply, domestic demand for LPG has been close to flat for several years, so virtually all incremental production needs to be sent abroad.

Headlines — November 20, 2023

Locator: 46113HEADLINES.

Personal investing: usual disclaimer. Disclaimer on this page and throughout the blog.

  • bought today: AVGO
  • I've added UBER to my tech bucket, but have not yet established a position

LA: wow, wow, wow, never uunderestimate the "can-do" attitude of the American worker -- that LA freeway disaster one week ago? That freeway overpass is now fully re-opened, just in time for morning rush hour. Color me impressed! Wow!

Microsoft hires Altman: here we go. Monday morning. Bigger than any merger announcement. Not on Joanna Stern’s bingo card. Fraught. Can that be used as a noun?

Analysis: Barron’s.

AI failed? Didn’t see this coming?

MSFT: up $5.00. [Later, pre-market trading: MSFT up as much as $7.00.]

NVDA: up $2.63.

AMD? Doing just fine, thank you in pre-market trading.

OpenAI: 3rd CEO in three days. Interim CEO lasted two days. It’s possible she may leave OpenAI, also.

Cruise control? CEO resigns.

Big Pharma: Bayer thins out.

Rhine closed: high water. Can’t make this stuff up.

Deathbed: European petrochemical industry. Winner: US, Saudi. In that order. Third place? China.

Visual: semiconductor titans. Shoot! Now everyone knows.

Lousy visual: missed MSFT, TSLA, AVGA. Are you kidding me?

WTI: moving nicely.

Building oil inventories: China. Charles Kennedy. Too early to start talking about $150-oil? LOL.

CVX: up nicely in pre-market trading.

BA: up nicely at open.

Green: all indices in pre-market trading.

Bullish? El-Erian. We shouldn’t see another hike. Not that it won’t happen, but El-Erian advises no new rate increase.

Benched: Jets’ QB — in loss to Denver.

Early Super Bowl game tonight? Two best teams meet in Kansas City. TS a huge Philly fan; now tied to KC’s TE.

USA’s sports capital? Las Vegas looking to grab the golden ring.

But like a Vegas magic act, this one pulled a rabbit out of a hat when it mattered most. The race itself not only went off without a hitch—it delivered the most exciting contest of the season. 
Even the snarky world champion, the Netherlands’ Max Verstappen, could find nothing to complain about. He won his 18th race of the season, ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez. 
Standing in front of the Bellagio fountains, Verstappen proclaimed the race a success, changing his tune from earlier in the week when he said that the whole event was “99% show and 1% sporting event.” 
“It was a lot of fun out there,” he said. “I hope everyone enjoyed it—we definitely did. We’re already excited to come back next year.” 
There was more at stake for Las Vegas, however, than pleasing a petulant Dutchman. 
Successfully staging this F1 weekend was the latest test of the city’s ambition to become America’s sports capital. The motor racing grandstands will barely have been dismantled by the time NBA’s in-season tournament final rolls into town on Dec. 9. And two months later, Sin City welcomes the single biggest sporting event on the U.S. calendar: Super Bowl LVIII.

Saudi loves the sand: huge investor in Las Vegas.

Laser-focused on dividends: OK. Link here. EPD.

AAPL-QCOM update: link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source