Friday’s Announcement (?) — Palindromic Thursday — 2-24-22

 Link here. US Supreme Court nominee? We’ll see how “good” CNN is (?). Later: yes CNN was correct. No one will dare vote against this nominee. Or even say a bad thing. She’s going to make Sotomayer look like the idiot Sotomayer is. 

The Williston Herald "The Energy Chaser" Has Posted -- Palindromic Thursday -- 2-24-22

Link here. 

Worth subscribing to the newsletter.

EOG 4Q21 Earnings And Full Year 2021; Declares Special Dividend , $1.00 / Share Along With Regular Dividend

Link here.

Note the "double premium wells." See this link among many other links; google EOG double premium wells.

Fourth Quarter Highlights

• Record quarterly adjusted net income of $1.8 billion, or $3.09 per share, and $2.0 billion of free cash flow
• Capital expenditures in-line with guidance while oil production above guidance mid-point
• Declared regular dividend of $0.75 per share and special dividend of $1.00 per share

Full Year 2021 Highlights

• Record annual adjusted net income of $5.0 billion, or $8.61 per share
• Generated record $5.5 billion of free cash flow
• Reduced well costs 7%
• Identified 700 new net double premium locations, replacing 170% of double premium wells drilled in 2021
• Replaced more than two times 2021 production at $5.81 per Boe finding and development cost
• Achieved significant improvements in methane emissions, water and safety performance

2022 Capital Plan

• Capital plan of $4.3 to $4.7 billion returns oil production to pre-pandemic levels, maintains flat well costs, lowers per-unit cash costs and funds investments to further improve the business
• Cash from operations before working capital funds capital plan at $32 WTI 

From Ezra Yacob, Chief Executive Officer

"The outstanding fourth quarter results cap off a tremendous year for EOG – record earnings, record free cash flow, and return of cash that places EOG among the leaders in our industry and across the broader market. Reflecting these results, we are continuing to deliver on our long-standing free cash flow priorities with another $1.00 per share special dividend while further strengthening the balance sheet.

About that "double premium well":

NOG: 4Q21 And Full Year 2021

Link here. 

Highlights:

• fourth quarter production of 64,155 Boe per day (59.2% oil), an increase of 11% from the third quarter of 2021
• fourth quarter GAAP cash flow from operations of $133.1 million. Excluding changes in net working capital, cash flow from operations was $158.0 million, an increase of 29% from the third quarter of 2021
• total capital expenditures of $83.7 million during the fourth quarter, excluding previously-announced non-budgeted acquisitions
• free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $70.7 million during the fourth quarter, post-preferred stock dividends, increased 28% from the third quarter of 2021. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below
• initiates 2022 production guidance of 70,000 - 75,000 Boe per day, with $350 - $415 million total planned capital expenditures
• closed Veritas acquisition in the Permian Basin, largest acquisition in NOG’s history, on January 27, 2022
• announced a Base Dividend Growth plan in December 2021, highlighted by planned 20% average dividend growth per quarter through 2023
• retired $7.2 million in face value of Convertible Preferred Stock

MRO With Five New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- Palindromic Thursday 2-24-22

Active rigs: 

$93.58	2/24/2022	02/24/2021	02/24/2020	02/24/2019	02/24/2018
Active Rigs	32	15	49	66	57

Five new permits, #38793 - #38797, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits five new wells in Bailey oil field: Rowe, Erling, Ravn, Valborg, and Skinner;
• all will be sited in SESW 21-146-93;
• sited 470 FSL and  between 2178 FWL and 2338 FWL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37635, 200, BR, Cherry Tree 1Z TFH,
• 35131, 975, Enerplus, Huntsman 149-92-32D-29H-TF1,

NDIC Hearing Dockets For March, 2022

Usual disclaimer applies: I do this quickly for my benefit. I do not expect readers to read this summary. There will be content and typographic errors. I used shorthand that may be confusing.  For all I know the links may not even be correct. I haven't checked them in quite awhile. In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here. 

Wednesday, January 1, 2022
Seven Pages

Cases, not permits.

 

Thursday, March 24, 2022:

• 29251, True,NDIC, authorizing Samson Oil and Gas USA, Inc, temporary authority to rework and use the Mays #1-20H (file # 15646), section 28-150-102; McKenzie County, as a combined production/injection well for an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation in the Foreman Butte-Madison pool.
  
• 29252, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, amend field rules, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 36-142-99 and sections 1/12-141-99; four wells; Billings County
• 29253, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 35-142-99 and sections 2/11-141-99; four wells, Billings County
• 29254, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 34-142-99 and sections 3/10-141-99; four wells, Billings County;
• 29255, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 33-142-99 and sections 4/9-141-99; four wells, Billings County
• 29256, CLR, Bullsnake-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 31-142-98 and sections 6/7-141-98; four wells; Billings County
• 29257, RimRock Oil & Gas, Twin Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1600-acre unit, E/2 of section 21 and all of sections 22/23-147-92; two wells, Dunn County
• 29258, Hunt, Zahl-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, 1) 1/12/13/24; 2) 2/11/14/23; and, 3) 3/10/15/22-159-101, ten wells on each unit, a total of 30 wells, illiams County;
• 29259, White Rock, Grassy Butte-Tyler, commingling
• 29260, CLR, pooling
• 29261, CLR, pooling
• 29262, CLR, pooling
• 29263, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 33-142-99 and sections 4/9-141-99; four wells, Billings County;
• 29264, CLR, pooling
• 29265, KODA Resources, SWD
• 29266, Ovintiv, commingling,
• 29267, Ovintiv, commingling,
  

Wednesday, March 23, 2022:

• 29230, True, spacing, Northern State well, file #37495, NWNE 36-148-102, McKenzie County
• 29231, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, establish a 1600-acre unit; W/2-16/21, NW/4 sections 28, E/2 sections 17/20 and NE/4 of section 29-145-94; seven wells, Dunn County; see graphic here;
  
• 29232, Kraken, Oliver-Bakken, i) terminate an existing 2560-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 16/17/20/21/28/29-158-98; one well, Williams County
• 29233, Foundation Energy, Beaver Creek-Bakken, recompletion and production of one vertical well and two horizontal wells in a 640-acre unit, section 1-142-103; Golden Valley;
• 29234, Foundation Energy, Beaver Creek-Bakken, recompletion and production of one vertical well and two horizontal wells i a 640-acre unit, section 6-142-102, Billings County;
• 29235, Mimir Energy, a request to have 31 Operating be removed as operator of several wells in section 30-162-81, Bottineau County
• 29236, Prima Exploration, pooling, Divide County
• 29237, Prima Exploration, pooling, Divide County
• 29238, Hess, commingling,
• 29239, Hess, commingling,
• 29240, Grayson Mill (Equinor), commingling,
• 29241, Grayson Mill (Equinor), commingling,
• 29242, BR, commingling,
• 29243, Whiting, polling,
• 29244, Whiting, pooling,
• 29245, Whiting, pooling,
• 29246, Whiting, pooling,
• 29247, Whiting, pooling,
• 29248, Whiting, pooling,
• 29249, Ovintiv, Westberg-Bakken, two wells to be drilled on an overlapping 2560-acre unit, section 25/36-152-97; McKenzie County
• 29250, Hess, SWD
  

Tuesday, March 1, 2022:

• 29224, BR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, unitized management of the Haystack Butte-Bakken unit; McKenzie County;
  
• 29225, BR, agreement for managing the Haystack Butte-Bakken unitized unit.

Dog Bites Man -- Reuters -- Palindromic Thursday -- 2-24-22

Story: link here. OXY posts profit on soaring crude prices.

• monthly output: 1.19 million boepd, compared with 1.14 million boepd a year earlier
• net income: $1.34 billion, or $1.37 per share
• last year: a net loss of $1.31 billion or $1.41 per share
• results to be reported after close of business Thursday

Dated Brent: assessed at $106.52 / bbl -- February 24, 2022 -- highest since July 2014. Up over $6/bbl, day-over-day.

Gasoline demand, link here. One thing "is for sure," the EIA graphic is not reflecting what GasBuddy has been telling us all week. And the question needs to be asked: to what extend is "demand destruction" affecting "gasoline demand"? This is not a particularly encouraging graphic for those hoping on a robust US economy coming out of the pandemic:

Understanding Ukraine -- A Comprehensive Reading List -- Palindromic Thursday -- 2-24-22

Link here.

And speaking of links, I've added two new links to my toolbar. The jury is still out whether I keep these links or not, but so far, they look intriguing.

Literary hub.

No Tricks Zone. 

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Biking At Church

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Stuff That Came In Overnight -- Palindromic Thursday -- 2-24-22

Updates

February 26, 2022: it appears that Phil Mickelson has lost every endorsement and the PGA appears to have severed all ties with him (although that's not yet explicit). Being reported just an hour ago, Phil Mickelson has lost all four major endorsements: KPMG (was the first and it was SWIFT); then in the order it was published: Amstel Light; Callaway Golf ("pausing its relationship"); Workday (won't renew its contract when it expires the end of March, 2022); and American Express. 

The Desert Sun in Palm Springs, California, reported The American Express no longer will have the Phil and Amy Mickelson Foundation as its main charitable arm, and that Mickelson no longer will be the tournament host.

The foundation had been the host since 2019. The PGA Tour said it would have no further comment except to confirm Mickelson is no longer involved.

Later, 2:39 p.m. CT: more on the Saudi Sand Golf Association. My thoughts on this "new" league and American golfers flocking to it falls into the same domain as other American athletes, born, raised, trained in America, and then joining a foreign country for the International Olympics. 

To some extent the Olympic issue is a bit different, maybe very different, because the number of opportunities to get to the Olympics is very, very limited. 

But for professional golfers to think about jumping ship to join a mideastern golfing association is beyond the pale. 

There is no history of golf in the mideast. The history of golf is Scottish, Irish, English, American (US) and there is no history of golf in the mideast. It's simply all about money. So incredibly crass. 

If one wants to get a history of "sports" in the mideast, one could make a case for horse-racing. Horse-racing certainly has its history in England and the US but at least the mideast has a bit of horse-racing history a lot longer than any golfing history. 

Maybe Phil, Dustin, et al, appreciated the sand traps the Saudis had to offer.

Original Post

California's diaspora: link here.

Joe Tzu: if you do not know what you're doing, neither does your enemy.

Giving up: watching the admin threaten to dump more SPR bbls now is like an old movie when someone runs out of bullets and just wildly throws his pistol ....

The PGA divide, link here, the Saudi Sand Golf Association --

• the high road, "no" to the Saudi Sand Golf Association: Rory, Justin, Collin, Jon, Tiger, Brooks
• haven't decided or late to decide: Bryson, Dustin, Phil, Lee, others
• special case: Bryson -- his commitment to the PGA is conditional and relativistic, no moral compass; it's hard to say that about a Texan; makes Phil look good (okay, "better," not good)

Later, Bryson pulls out (sort of), as does Dustin. Link here.

Top ten professional athletes in the world today (using the word "professional" loosely): link here.

• 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 
• 2. Novak Djokovic
• 3. Aaron Rodgers 
• 4. Cooper Kupp 
• 5. Colby Covington 
• 6. Enes Freedom 
• 7. Blake Treinen 
• 8. Jonathan Isaac 
• 9. Bryson DeChambeau 
• 10. Tim Tebow
  

Moldova: world's largest ammunition dept? Needs to be fact-checked. Russia to take it? See wiki entry here.

Ukraine sanctions:

• EU, UK, and US will buy almost $1 billion worth of crude oil and natural gas from Russia every day for the foreseeable future. Link here.

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The Map Page 

Earlier I mentioned that it would be smart for millennial journalists to read and heed the writings of Vladimir Putin when it comes to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. 

Following the Mongol invasion of Rus', much of Ukraine was controlled by Lithuania and after the Union of Lublin (1569) by Poland withi the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, illustrated here in 1619.

The Mother Of All Hostile Takeovers -- The New Chairman Of The Board And CEO Will Replace All Directors, Ukraine, Inc -- February 24, 2022

Breaking news. No link yet. 

The question, of course, is whether Ukraine will remain independent as a wholly owned subsidiary or will it be swallowed into the holding company. 

Next: by the way, if one reads Putin's writings regarding Ukraine over the years, Latvians, Lithuanians, and Estonians may want to consider buying some foreign real estate or putting down a deposit on a German/Polish rental. Just saying. My calendar suggests they have a three-year window of opportunity, at most. 

Moldova: world's largest ammunition depot? Needs to be fact-checked. Russia to take it? Later: Hawthorne Army Depot, Nevada: world's largest ammunition depot. Moldova's Cobasna ammunition depot is "said" to be the largest in eastern Europe. Multiple sources. Fact-checked with my wife. In addition, it is very likely much of the Cobasna depot is out-of-date, in-op, WWII-era ammunition.

Ukraine sanctions:

EU, UK, and US will buy almost $1 billion worth of crude oil and natural gas from Russia every day for the foreseeable future. Link here.

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In Other News

Backwardation: new record high for six-month futures -- $11.55 / bbl. Again, futures: not what oil will cost in the future, but what folks are willing to pay TODAY to guarantee crude oil delivery for some date in the future. Think of it as "hedging."

It's no different that buying an airline ticket in January for that July flight to Disneyland, or buying that same ticket on July first. Sure, there's a possibility that flights will be on sale in July, but not very likely.

Crude oil futures here.

• for oil guaranteed to be delivered six months from now, folks are willing to pay, Aug 2022: $88
• for delivery one year from now, February, 2023: $83.
• for delivery eighteen months from now, August 2023: $78
  

SRE: 4Q21 earnings preview, link here.

• Sempra is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results TOMORROW, Friday, February 25th, before market open.
• The consensus EPS Estimate is $2.00 (+5.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $3.52B (+11.0% Y/Y).
• Over the last 2 years, SRE has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 38% of the time.

EU EV charging rates: link here. Getting out of control. Why should this be a surprise?

*********************
Commentary

Two pipelines pretty much define the Biden energy policy:

• Nord Stream 2
• Keystone XL

Two countries pretty much define the Biden foreign policy:

• Afghanistan
• Ukraine

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Word For The Day: Lychrel

From wiki:

A Lychrel number is a natural number that cannot form a palindrome through the iterative process of repeatedly reversing its digits and adding the resulting numbers. 

This process is sometimes called the 196-algorithm, after the most famous number associated with the process. 

In base ten, no Lychrel numbers have been yet proved to exist, but many, including 196, are suspected on heuristic and statistical grounds. 

The name "Lychrel" was coined by Wade Van Landingham as a rough anagram of "Cheryl", his girlfriend's first name.

This is the mathematician's answer to "Wordle":

About 80% of all numbers under 10,000 resolve into a palindrome in four or fewer steps; about 90% of those resolve in seven steps or fewer. Here are a few examples of non-Lychrel numbers:

• 56 becomes palindromic after one iteration: 56+65 = 121.
• 57 becomes palindromic after two iterations: 57+75 = 132, 132+231 = 363.
• 59 becomes a palindrome after three iterations: 59+95 = 154, 154+451 = 605, 605+506 = 1111
• 89 takes an unusually large 24 iterations (the most of any number under 10,000 that is known to resolve into a palindrome) to reach the palindrome 8,813,200,023,188.

EIA Weekly Report -- Palindromic Thursday -- 2-24-22

How much oil does the US import from Russia? Using Russia as "1", the following, link here:

• Canada: 36
• Mexico: 7 (will drop to zero in 2023)
• Saudi Arabia: 3
• Colombia: 3
• Iraq: 3
• Brazil: 2.5
• Russia: 1
• Ecuador: 1
• Nigeria: 0.2
• Trinidad and Tobago: 0

Weekly EIA report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage increased by a remarkable 4.5 million bbls
• US crude oil in storage, at 416.0 million bbls, remains 9% below five-year average
• US crude oil imports averaged the typical 6.8 million bbls per day last week, an increase of 1.0 million bopd from the previous week; over the past four weeks, US crude oil imports average .... drum roll ... 6.5 million bpd (yawn), which is 14% more than the same four-week period one year ago;
• US refiners are operating at 87.4% of their capacity; this report is for the week ending February 18, 2022; the MPC refinery explosion occurred February 21 - 22, 2022
  
• distillate fuel decreased by 0.6 million bbls last week and remain at 18% below the five-year average
• jet fuel supplied was up 40.4% compared with same four-week period last year
• gasoline demand: graph pending

This data point will be interesting to follow in next week's report, which will cover the period in which that Marathon refinery blew up. From today's report, the opening line:

US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million bpd which was 344,000 bpd more than the previous week's average.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Couldn't The "Canadian Wars Power Act" Solve The Trans Mountain Pipeline Problem? February 24, 2022

Radarflight24: I see the Russians have taken down this site.

Is there a war going on? In general, my only news source is my twitter feed. Yes, I surf the net relentlessly and I do subscribe to The WSJ, but in general I pay no attention to "news" as the mainstream news frames it. I do google searches on items that interest me and rely on readers to provide "news" that I might have missed. 

It is quite astonishing, then to go through pages of twitter feed and hardly realize there's a war going on. Yes, the Ukraine story is mentioned, but it's hardly getting any more attention than anything else going on in the world. Quite remarkable, and really quite refreshing, considering millennial journalists have no historical context in which to put the story.

Much could be said, but need to move on. The Bakken is beckoning.

Global LNG gas exports, link here:

• global: 53 Bcf/d this year
• Russia: 23 Bcf/d this year
• I think most readers can "do" the math

Global crude oil exports:

• global: 41 million bopd
• Russia: 5 million bopd
• again, I think most readers can "do" the math

Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas: cannot afford to sanction Russia. Period. Dot. ISO NE. 

Unread: oil's journey from worthless during the pandemic to $100 / bbl. Link to Reuters. 

Saudi Aramco: hey, that golf thing might not turn out so well, but wow, this oil stuff is looking great. Aramco shares rise to a record high as oil tops $100 for first time since 2014. 

Phil Mickelson: the best thing that ever happened for this golfer -- war breaks out in Ukraine and he won't be missed. 

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$97.49	2/24/2022	02/24/2021	02/24/2020	02/24/2019	02/24/2018
Active Rigs	31	15	49	66	57

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: another setback for Canada's Trans Mountain Expansion and crude oil producers. One would think Trudeau's "emergency war powers" could solve this problem. Apparently, the Canadian emergency war powers act only targets truckers.

It seems that, once again, Canada is struggling to build crude oil pipeline export capacity fast enough to keep pace with production growth. The latest setback came with the announcement that completion of the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) will be delayed until the third quarter of 2023 and that the 590-Mb/d project will cost almost twice as much as previously estimated. The latest six-to-nine-month delay appears to set the Canadian oil industry on a path to exhausting its spare export capacity by later this year. And that’s not good news for producers. In today’s RBN blog, we consider this latest TMX announcement and what it might mean for pipeline constraints and heavy oil price differentials.

Overnight — Palindromic Thursday — 2-24-22

Oil:

WTI: $98.70. Up 7.2%; up $6.60. Later, 4:44 a.m, CT: $100.13. Up $8.00.

Brent: $104.09. Up 7.5%; up $7.25. Later, 4:44 a.m, CT: $105.83. Up $8.39.

The next SPR release can’t come soon enough. I’m sure the White House will announce the release this afternoon. Speaking of which, has anyone seen or heard from the US president lately?

EU proposes new law to force suppliers comply with ESG. Does this not suggest things are not as bad as they seem? Asking for a friend.

EU calling for more renewable energy.