Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Tomorrow -- January 22, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday and yet to be reported, the "Tuesday wells":


Wednesday, January 23, 2019
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-20H2, Elidah, producing, but not much,  

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte,

Where In The World Is Amad? -- January 22, 2019

Updates

February 21, 2019: update here; about a week from its destination, South Korea.


February 2, 2019: aha! After losing Amad for a few week, the VLCC has been spotted off the eastern coast of South Africa. Tracked here, the Amad is about "halfway there." Position shown in the screenshot below was received January 31, 2019.

Original Post 

I don't know. You can track Amad here. Since the last update, no further "free" updates (for a price, one can get satellite updates). I assume the Amad is well into the Atlantic Ocean. Bound for KR YOS -- Port of Yeosu, Korea. ETA: February 26, 2019.

From Platts, re-posting, from January 8, 2019:

What appears to be the first Very Large Crude Carrier of the year to load and depart from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is bound for Yeosu, South Korea, according to cFlow, Platts trade flow software.

The 2 million barrel-capacity Amad set sail from LOOP on Sunday after arriving there on December 27. The vessels’ destination of Yeosu is home to the 785,000 b/d GS Caltex re finery, which runs mainly light and medium sour crudes.

LOOP first started exporting crude on VLCCs in February 2018 and averaged loading about one a month for the remainder of the year. LOOP exported 1.94 million barrels of crude oil in February 2018, which was the first month of LOOP exports, according to data from the state of Louisiana. In September, which is the most recent data available, LOOP exported 1.99 million barrels.

We've Been Through This Before -- The Bakken Has Plenty Of Water. The Permian? No Problem -- Rigzone -- January 22, 2019

From Rigzone: frack water demand in the US skyrockets.

While U.S. shale oil production is hitting record levels, Rystad has found that frac water demand has more than doubled since 2016. The demand in the Permian alone currently exceeds all of U.S. demand of 2016.

The future for frack water demand also looks positive, with Rystad predicting demand to grow by an additional 6 percent in 2019 [inconsequential]. The Permian will see demand surpass 2.5 billion barrels by 2020.

"Even with such steep growth, market concerns about sourcing challenges and bottlenecks appear to be minimal.”

Rystad noted strong growth for the water treatment market in 2018, with a 28 percent expansion to 1.4 billion barrels last year. The market is forecast to double 2016 totals by 2020.

Note: the amount of water used in the Bakken has remained relatively stable for several years.

Perilously Close To Losing Plant Life (And Thus All Life On Earth) -- January 22, 2019

Updates

January 23, 2019: more on Higgs theory here. 

Original Post 

Unlike the marketing campaign by Algore et al, this is really good science, the Higgs theory:

• Global warming and cooling are driven by the sun, specifically by the solar-sourced Interplanetary Magnetic Field, which regulates incoming cosmic rays, which in turn govern cloudiness and thus global temperature (the breathtakingly elegant Svensmark Theory).
• Global temperature oscillations lag 25 years behind the causative solar magnetic fluctuations. This 25-year lag is due to ocean thermal inertia in remarkable agreement with the 15-20-year time lag estimated by Abdussamatov et al. 2012).
• The idea that CO2 is the main climate driver, despite its scarcity in Earth’s atmosphere, ie 400 parts per million, near plant-starvation level, contrasts starkly with CO2’s 1,000 to 4,000 ppm levels for most of the last 600 million years.
• Earth is now cooling.  Global warming ended in 2016: proof that the sun, not CO2, drives Earth’s climate. Moreover, from AD500 to 1200, CO2 levels were anti-correlated with Earth’s temperature.

I particularly like point #3 -- this has been brought up before. Below 300 ppm, "we" were perilously close at one time to losing plant life (and thus all life on earth).

Below 300 ppm (and one can argue that even at 400 ppm) CO2 become a trace molecule. Without it, life would not exist on earth. 

Ten New Permits; Slawson Reports Twelve DUCs Completed; Thirteen Permits Renewed; Six Permits Canceled -- January 22, 2018 -- January 22, 2019

Minor notes, tag: hope_springs_eternal, from oilprice:

The National Energy Board of Canada has approved preliminary, land-clearing work for TransCanada’s Keystone XL oil pipeline, CBC reports, noting that the approval came following a request by the company to be allowed to clear some trees and foliage around parts of the route of the controversial pipeline in anticipation of further developments around the project.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$52.83	1/22/2019	01/22/2018	01/22/2017	01/22/2016	01/22/2015
Active Rigs	65	58	38	47	159

Eleven new permits, January 18, 2019, and January 22, 2019

• Operators: Newfield (3); Nine Point Energy (3); Sinclair (2); Bruin (2), Slawson
• Fields: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie); Williston (Williams); Sanish (Mountrail); Lone Tree Lake (Williams), Ellisville (Williams); Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: beginning where we left off last Friday, Newfield has permits for three more Sturgeon permits in lot 1, section 18-150-99; Nine Point Energy has permits for a 3-well Little Muddy permit in section 6-154-100; Sinclair has permits for a two-well Uran pad in the Sanish, section 15-153-92; Bruin has permits for a two-well Johnson pad in lot 4, section 3-157-99; and Slawson has a permit in 21-151-92;

Thirteen permits renewed:

• CLR (4): two Alpha and two Florida permits, all in McKenzie County
• XTO (4): four Hartel permits in McKenzie County
• EOG (2): two Austin permits in Mountrail County
• Nine Point Energy: a Little Muddy permit in Williams County 
• Murex: a Barrett Leigh permit in Williams County
• Whiting: a Roggenbuck permit in Mountrail County

Six permits canceled:

• XTO (5): three Maddy Federal permits and two Cherry Creek State permits, all in McKenzie County
• Nine Point Energy: a Little Muddy permit Williams County

Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: tbe Slawson Torpedo Federal wells are tracked here;

• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31277, 825, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 9H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31276, 2,942, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 8H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31275, 3,632, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 7H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31274, 3,205, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 6H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31273, 2,254, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 5H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31272, 1,090, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 4H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31271, 1,109, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 3H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31270, 1,523, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 2H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31269, 1,857, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 1H, t12/18; cum --;
• 31289, 1,794, Slawson, Bandit Federal 1 SLH, t12/18; cum --;
• 31279, 3,794, Slawson, Rebel Federal 1SLH, t12/18; cum --;

Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst For Today -- Tuesday -- Have Not Been Reported -- January 22, 2019

These wells have come off the confidential list today, but the production data has not yet been reported as of 8:01 p.m. Central Time:

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte,

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The Book Page

The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018.

Balsam, pp. 42++:

The study of balsam demonstrates the desirability of incense as a commodity worth the effort and expense of distant trade. The healing ointment referred to the "balm" in the Old Testament is believed to be a unique form of myrrh known as balsam and ancient records suggest that the Jewish kingdom of Judea had a monopoly on this valuable substance. Balsam was highly sought after for medical properties and raised enormous revenues for whatever regime controlled its production.

Balsam became extinct during the sixth century AD when serious revolts in Palestine were followed by Persian and Islamic invasions. No living samples of the balsam plant exist, but archaeologists have recovered evidence of balsam resins in ancient containers.
An empty jar was found at Masada bearing the scratched-on words "balsam juice" in Aramaic letters, while at caves near Qumran an intact jug was found wrapped in palm fibres and crammed between some rocks. The jugs were inscribed with "Preparation B."

Just kidding. I made up that last line about "Preparation B."

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She is holding her swimming ribbon having graduated from "X-Treme Swimmers" this past weekend. Sophia, who turns five later this summer, now advances to "advanced swimming  / stroke swimming." 

One Last One, Then I'm Calling It A Day -- January 22, 2019

Shale is slowly choking off historic gasoline trade -- Bloomberg via Rigzone. This I gotta read.

The rise of U.S. shale oil is choking off a historic gasoline trade, dealing a blow to European refineries that for decades have relied on American drivers to buy their excess supplies.

Over the past month, tankers shipping European gasoline to the world’s biggest consumer detoured to Venezuela and Caribbean islands. There’s even been a rare jump in shipments in the opposite direction. Imports from Europe fell to the lowest since November earlier this month and remain well below last year, according to customs data and ship-tracking.

A surge in U.S. shale oil production, which is rich in gasoline, is a major contributor to the diminished flows because refineries are running the hardest in more than 15 years. That’s led to a fundamental shift in the nation’s stockpiles of the road fuel, now at their highest seasonally since at least 1990, thereby depressing demand for resupply from Europe.

"Shale oil production is going through a dream phase and the U.S. is going to make more gasoline,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH. The slump in cross-Atlantic flows is being caused by a combination of more shale oil refining and weak demand in the U.S., he said.

This suggests to me US refiners are breaking the code on refining light sweet oil. 

For the archives.

This Is A PBS / NPR Poll -- As Predicted By ... -- T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 4

Mitch McConnell is readying a bill to fund the "rest" of the government. From Fox News

"The bill marks the first real action in the Senate since Dec. 19, when McConnell moved an interim bill through the Senate. McConnell hopes to start debate on the measure as soon as possible, but it could be filibustered by Democrats -- meaning the debate may not even begin until late Friday. 

If we do see a filibuster, the headline most folks will see: Democrats filibuster bill to re-open government. 

This tells me the Dems don't want to "re-open" the government. Regardless of what the US Senate does, the bill that goes to POTUS to sign must be approved by the US House. 

From twitter this morning:

And,

Earlier I posted this: the discussion in the US Senate is gradually moving from "the wall" to "right-sizing the federal government." We hear from the loonies (left and right) through social media but the movers and shakers, on both sides of the aisle, are remaining strangely quiet.

TSA sick-in:

• Sunday: 10%
• yesterday: 11%
• forecast: 21% by the end of the week
• tipping point: 15%

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The Science Is Settled

As you read through these articles, remember that with regard to AGW, the science is settled.

The first article: that "amazing" 4,500-year-old stone circle was actually built in 1990s by farmer, admit archaeologists (scientists), from The [London] Telegraph, London, home of the smartest people on earth:

When archaeologists announced the discovery of an ‘amazing’ 4,500-year-old stone circle on an Aberdeenshire farm in December they admitted it was odd that it had remained hidden for so long.

With its diminutive circumference and smallish stones, experts said the Neolithic monument in the parish of Leochel-Cushnie was unusual, but hoped it might change their understanding of prehistoric building.

Sadly such optimism was not to be realised. This week a farmer who had once owned the land got in touch to say he had built it himself in the 1990s. [Insert laughing face emoji here.]

Neil Ackerman, historic environment record assistant at Aberdeenshire Council, said: “These types of monument are notoriously difficult to date.

A nominee for the 2019 Geico Rock Award? Neil Ackerman -- an historic environment record assistant -- "these types of monument are notoriously difficult to date," but predicting the future is really, really easy, especially when you have Algore's PowerPoint presentations and no critical thinking ability.

We know that the earth will be 2.7 degrees warmer one hundred years from now. And Occasional-Cortex says we have but twelve years to save the world. The science is settled.

Then this, from STATnews: it appears scientists are still discovering "new" anatomy after 200 years of study.

Anatomy of surprise: Scientists discover hidden blood networks that cross through bone or years, physiologists looking closely at bones noticed something puzzling. It was a microscopic prison break, blood cells slipping unseen from the enclosed depths of the bone marrow into the general circulation.

“We have the bone marrow, which produces the blood cells, and when you need them, you need them urgently. But how do they get out?” said Svetlana Komarova, who studies bone biology at McGill University in Montreal.

That anatomy should still contain such surprises is itself something of a surprise. It’s easy to think that 19th-century anatomists pulled apart the body tendon by tendon, vein by vein, describing and drawing every filament they came across, no matter how tiny. But eight years ago ... 

Climate: the science is settled.

From notalotofpeopleknowthat, flashback to 2004: the Pentagon tells President Bush II that "Siberian winter" will kill us.

Paul Matthews reminds us that we are now only a year or two away from our new Siberian climate in Britain, at least according to the Guardian in 2004.

Wow, how did that happen?

Is this accurate? Did Ms Maxine Waters give the Democrat response to the 2018 State of the Unioin Address? I really can't remember. 

The lonesome friends of scientists and the end of the world as we know it:

Lonesome Friends of Science, John Prine

Re-Posting: US Refiners Post Record Crude Oil Processing In CY18

In all the clutter this morning, worth re-posting:

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.

Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.

U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.

China refiners also broke records in 2018.

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The Book Page 

The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018

A denarius has about 0.158733 ounces of silver. At $10/ounce, a denarius is worth about $1.59, so let's say $1.50/Roman silver denarius. Perhaps one could say the Roman silver denarius was a "silver dollar" at face value.

A gold aureus ad about 8 grams of gold, or 0.282192 ounces of gold. At $1,200/ounce of gold, a gold aureus was worth about  $338, so let's say about $350.

$350 / $1.50 = 233
$1,200  / $10 = 120

Conversion:

• 25 silver denarii = 1 gold aureus

Today:

• 70 American Silver Eagles (BU) at $20 each = one Krugerrand (BU) at $1,400 each

The book deals with one fundamental question: how did the Roman Empire function, and, in particular, how did it pay for its military costs?

What I am interested in: connecting the dots of pagan Roman rites, Saudi Arabia, and Christian myths and legends.

The final civil war of the Roman Republic was fought in 31 BC when the Roman general Octavian, adopted son of Julius Caesar, declared war on the Egyptian Queen Cleopatra (yes, she really was a real person) and her consort Mark Antony.

Cleopatra fled back to Egypt when it appeared that Mark was going to lose bigley. He did. The Romans annexed Egypt and the rest is history, as they say.

Egypt introduced a quarter-rate tax on trade between the eastern Mediterranean and the Far East. One-fourth of all trade was returned to Rome. Rome used that to money to fund the first professional army in the history of mankind.

All goods sent to the Egyptian Red Sea ports at that time had to stop at Coptos/Qift.

From the net:

Koptos was an important station on the way from the Nile valley over desert routes to the Red Sea ports.

One of these ports was Myos Homos, which was relatively close to Koptos.

However, the Red Sea has tempestuous and dangerous currents and air flows, and more southerly ports were preferred. With the foundation by Ptolemy II of the Red Sea port Berenike about 255 BC Koptos became especially important.

The desert route to Berenike started normally at Edfu, but with the Theban rebellion about 207/206 BC the town was no longer part of the Ptolemaic empire, and the caravans may have had to start at Koptos instead.

Berenike is mentioned in ancient literature as the port for the import of African elephants, which were needed for warfare. However, it was also important for the trade with India and Arabia.

Koptos was also the starting point for expedition to several quarries, which were very important especially for the Romans. 

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Gusty Winds Over The Weekend

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 3 -- NOG Provides Update

Bakken operators are tracked here. But, as noted, not always updated. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

NOG: a proxy for the Bakken.

Press release.

• repurchase program: 12.0 million shares since October 1, 2018; almost 5 million shares in CY19 through January 21, 2019
• 4Q18 crude oil production: expected to be in the upper half of prior guidance of 35,000 - 36,000 boepd despite constraints
• 2019 hedges: $63/bbl
• completions in line with expectations
• NOG added 7.7 net wells to production in 4Q18 (exactly 25% of full year addition)
• CY2018: 30.8 net wells brought to production 
• expects 4Q18 differential will be between $9.00 and $10.00 per bbl
• 2018 differential: modestly (sic) above the high end of prior guidance of $4.76 - $5.75
• differentials in 1Q19 have improved substantially from 4Q18
• 4Q18 LOE were better than anticipated: as a result, full year 2018 average LOE is now expected to be slightly below the low end of prior guidance of $7.50 to $7.75/per bbl
• CY2019: NOG anticipates strong cash flow from operations; will exceed the company's CAPEX budget
• company strategy: the company acquired approximately 1.0 net producing well, 3.3 net wells in process and 8,465 net acres in the fourth quarter and first few weeks of January at an average price of $1,785 per acre. As the natural consolidator of non-operated working interests in the Williston Basin, Northern believes this trend will disproportionately benefit the company.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 2-- Despite Videos, Most Airport Wait Times Were Within TSA Standards

SOTU: one week from today. The one thing we all know: Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be in attendance. She (might) watch from home. More likely, her aides will read the transcript.

Day 32 of the partial government shutdown.

Tipping point: the other day I posted that 15% was the tipping point. That's the percent of TSA screeners calling in sick that will signal a "tipping point." There is a quick and very interesting solution to the TSA problem, by the way, but I will let folks think about it. Hint: free market capitalism. Back to the TSA news:

• Unscheduled absences of airport security screeners reached a record 10 percent on Sunday 
• the TSA has called up National Deployment Officers to operate checkpoints as more screeners are absent
• most airport wait times were within TSA standards
• comment: but that was over a weekend in which 4,500+ flights were canceled due to weather. We'll have a better idea  how things go today -- first day back to work after a long 3-day weekend. 

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I Can See Clearly Now

I Can See Clearly Now, Johnny Nash

Sixteen Wells Will Be Reported Out Today -- January 22, 2019

Two gazillion unemployed males? You think China ready to deal? China's economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in two years. Link here.  

Open book test: a written examination during which an examinee is permitted to consult references to answer questions calling for organization, analysis, or judgment, rather than memorization.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: rising sharply.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Wells coming off the confidential list today --

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte, 

Monday, January 21, 2019
34885, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10B, Heart Butte;
34876, 1,962, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-7H,  Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 11K after 8 days extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
33779, 281, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 3B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 11 million lbs, t7/18; cum 89K 11/18;

Sunday, January 20, 2019
32926, SI/NC, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
23940, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Saturday, January 19, 2019
34493, 939, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-2H, Spring Creek, 60 stages, 8 million lbs, t8/18; cum 100K 11/18;
33971, 2,631, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek, 41 stages; 13.8 million lbs; a huge well, the Enerplus heavy metal pad is tracked here; t7/18; cum 146K 11/8;
23937, drl, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Active rigs:

$53.22	1/22/2019	01/22/2018	01/22/2017	01/22/2016	01/22/2015
Active Rigs	67	58	38	47	159

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.

Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.

U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 1 -- New England Burning Oil At A Rapid Clip To Stay Ahead Of The Curve

ISO New England: oil (10%); coal (%); renewables (10% and trending down during peak demand); link here -- I think this is the highest I've seen oil burning so far during Winter Storm Harper; Winter Storm Indra to follow; Watertown, MA, was 25 degrees below zero this morning (?) with wind chill at -40 degrees. At -40 degrees, by the way, Celsius = Fahrenheit.

Blackouts? Remarkably I'm not seeing much in the national news regarding blackouts. If accurate, the utilities deserve a huge shout-out -- keeping ahead of all of this. I'm not even hearing of any massive forest fires in Maine due to sparking transmission wires. Just saying. 

The good news: this weather will only last a few weeks.

The bad news: the world will end in twelve years, if we don't "attack" climate change -- Occasional Cortex -- let's see if she takes out a 30-year mortgage on a house. Link here. She and I are watching two different movies. Racial reparations back on the table. Immoral: our system allows billionaires to exist. Wow, Nancy has her hands full.

Davos, link here.

How much you wanna bet we see Occasional-Cortex in Davox next year? Wow, I hope she runs for president in 2020. The majority of her supporters don't know she is not eligible to serve; and the rest don't care.