"Katy, Bar The Door" -- Alex Kimani -- December 16, 2022

Updates

December 17, 2022: link here.

Original Post 

Link here.

Billions ... with a "b." 

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Avatar

Saw opening night Avatar with Sophia tonight.

We both agreed that it is not suitable for third graders; too much violence. No PDA (personal displays of affection); not one bit of bad language -- Sophia said there was a little -- okay, four words, the worst being "damn," used once.

More on this movie later. 

After reading Quentin Tarantino's book (2022); watching a lot of TCM; reading voraciously -- I've become a very hard critic of movies. I will watch to see others review this movie before I add anything else, but it's going to break all attendance records and revenue records for first weekend.

It can only be enjoyed on the big screen; watch it on the biggest screen you can find.

Cast: Sigourney Weaver -- a cameo appearance;

From Rotten Tomatoes:

• Rating: PG-13
• Partial Nudity: disagree; I see more at our apartment complex swimming pool than I saw in this movie; and, I saw more at Ringling Bros circus in Williston when I was eight years old (back in the late 1950s);
  
• Intense Action: agree completely; ninety minutes or more of nothing but violence (and none of it suspenseful)
• Sequences of Strong Violence: agree completely; see above;
• Some Strong Language: disagree completely; four separate words, each used worse, the worse was "damn"; 

Forbes review: link here. The review hit the bull's eye.

The New Yorker: another great review. Pans the movie.

The Washington Post: pans the movie.

Deadline: $130 - $150 million opening -- much less than expected.

Lego - Avatar: brilliant.

Seven New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 16, 2022

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $74.29.

Natural gas: $6.600

Seven new permits, #39496 - #39502, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Fields: Ellisville (Williston); Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for seven Brown Bear wells in lot 4, section 1-157-99; 
• to be sited 535 FNL and between 924 FWL and 1134 FWL

Ten permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill (6): five Pyramid permits, and one Hawkeye permit, all in Williams county;
• BR (4): two Chuckwagon and two Renegade permits, all four in McKenzie County;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36512, 113, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Narcisse 3-8-5-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County;
• 36514, 113, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Narcisse 4-8-5-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County;
• 36515, 207, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 5-17-20-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County;
• 36517, 123, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Narcisse 5-8-5-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County;
• 36518, 113, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 6-17-20-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County;
• 37984, 1,741, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 7-26H, McKenzie County;
• 37986, 1,188, CLR, Clear Creek Federal 8-26H1, McKenzie County;

CDC -- Seasonal Flu -- Update -- December 16, 2022

Elsewhere: 

Link here. Updated by CDC on December 16, 2022.

Outpatient visits, all "chest colds":

Deaths, all three "chest colds":

Hospital admissions, seasonal flu, laboratory-confirmed:

Seasonal flu, public health clinics, laboratory-confirmed:

Seasonal flu, US clinics, laboratory-confirmed:

Seasonal flu, hospitalizations, cumulative:

Long-term care facilities, percent with at least one confirmed, seasonal flu:

By age group:

Map:

The Apple Page -- Update On Apple's App Store -- A Win For Elon Musk -- EU Mandate -- December 16, 2022

Link to Reuters. A "free" sign-in may be required. 

Link here.

Apple's rivals are positioning themselves as the go-to alternative to its dominant App Store as the iPhone maker prepares to allow others on its devices in the European Union.

The bloc's Digital Markets Act (DMA) will force Apple and fellow tech giant Google to provide space for third-party app stores on their respective iOS and Android devices.

Under the DMA, which comes into effect on a rolling basis over the next two years, third-party alternatives will have an easier route to getting onto iPhones and Android devices.

And as components of the legislation come into effect, rivals from smaller startups to giants like Amazon and Microsoft may try to lure consumers and app developers alike away from Apple and Google.

Ben Wood, CMO of industry analysis firm CCS Insight, said he expects "an avalanche of app stores" in the near future.

"There's an emerging 'coalition of the willing', and all of them have a vested interest in no longer having to pay what they see as a tax to Apple," Wood told Reuters.

Apple's apparent concessions on sideloading mark a win for industry leaders such as Twitter owner Elon Musk and Spotify CEO Daniel Ek, both of whom have bemoaned the company's 30% surcharge on purchases made via its App Store.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs ... and, then, No Jobs -- December 16, 2022

This is most peculiar. Or as Alice might say, "... curiouser and curiouser." 

The official statement at this link.

I'll have to wait to see what non-government analysts have to say.

Apples and oranges.

The original numbers were estimates much earlier in the year.

Now, we're getting current estimates based on actual numbers. At least that's how I'm reading it. I might be wrong.

Two excerpts:

Comments:

• the first estimate -- the wildly breathless estimate of one million new jobs added was based on the sum of the data presented by a number of states; it was not the "Feds" trying to deceive us -- the Feds simply took the data they were sent; summed it up as they usually do and published it;
• the numbers now suggest only 10,000 new jobs were added: the numbers are so wildly disparate, one wonders where the journalists, analysts, fact-checkers, auditors were for the past several months -- are folks simply taking the states' numbers / the Fed numbers at face value and not checking them?
• was there any analysis by the Philadelphia Fed to explain how the states' estimates could be so wildly different that what actually occurred? If so, I missed it.
• it was during this period that the EIA had really, really incorrect information -- or at least questionable data -- about gasoline demand -- suggesting demand was much greater than it really turned out to be; that still remains perplexing, but I see no conspiracy;
  
• one wonders about two things:
• were the "states" too exuberant in forecasting how fast "we" would come out of the pandemic lock downs?
• did "work-at-home" data affect the numbers; it the "work-at-home" data still affecting the numbers
• correlating the current very, very low unemployment rate with these new numbers is very, very difficult; if only 10,000 jobs were added -- instead of one million -- how is that unemployment remains so low? Had one million jobs been added, wouldn't the unemployment rate be even lower?
• ZeroHedge asks the question if these new numbers might affect JPow's "Fed" statement for December, 2022. I don't know what ZeroHedge was implying (I did not closely read that article; I generally avoid ZeroHedge except as a "pointer").
• but if the unemployment rate is this low despite "no" (only 10,000) jobs being added, JPow has a much more formidable problem than we are being led to believe.
• oh, I almost forgot: a pundit -- maybe it was the ZeroHedge contributor who suggested that now that the mid-term elections are over, the bad news can be released. President Reagan knew that folks didn't need government numbers to tell them if they were doing better or worse; most folks know how they are doing without reading the "Fed" reports; 
• suggesting this new data / old data was political in nature is way off base. 
• something else is going on.

Again, I may have this all wrong. It's a first "read." It will be interesting if this story has legs. My hunch: nope.

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The Book Page

Braiding Sweetgrass: Indigenous Wisdom, Scientific Knowledge, and the Teaching of Plants, Robin Wall Kimmerer, c. 2013.

This book has been added to my Autumn, 2022, reading list.

The author is a member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation.

Hierochloe odorata (sweet grass or holy grass), from northern North America and Eurasia.

Hierochloe odorata or Anthoxanthum nitens (commonly known as sweet grass, manna grass, Mary’s grass or vanilla grass, and as holy grass in the UK, bison grass e.g. by Polish vodka producers)is an aromatic herb native to northern Eurasia and North America.

It is considered sacred by many Indigenous peoples in Canada and the United States.

It is used as a smudge, in herbal medicine and in the production of distilled beverages (e.g., Żubrówka, Wisent). It owes its distinctive sweet scent to the presence of coumarin.

Coumarin:

Coumarin is a colorless crystalline solid with a sweet odor resembling the scent of vanilla and a bitter taste. It is found in many plants, where it may serve as a chemical defense against predators.

By inhibiting synthesis of vitamin K, a related compound is used as the prescription drug warfarin – an anticoagulant – to inhibit formation of blood clots, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary embolism.

From wiki:

The Potawatomi, also spelled Pottawatomi and Pottawatomie (among many variations), are a Native American people of the western Great Lakes region, upper Mississippi River and Great Plains. 

They traditionally speak the Potawatomi language, a member of the Algonquin family. 

The Potawatomi call themselves Neshnabé, a cognate of the word Anishinaabe. 

The Potawatomi are part of a long-term alliance, called the Council of Three Fires, with the Ojibway and Odawa (Ottawa). In the Council of Three Fires, the Potawatomi are considered the "youngest brother" and are referred to in this context as Bodwéwadmi, a name that means "keepers of the fire" and refers to the council fire of three peoples. 

In the 18th century, they were pushed to the west by European/American encroachment and eventually removed from their lands in the Great Lakes region to reservations in Oklahoma. 

Under Indian Removal, they eventually ceded many of their lands, and most of the Potawatomi relocated to Nebraska, Kansas, and Indian Territory. Some bands survived in the Great Lakes region and today are federally recognized as tribes. In Canada, over 600 First Nation governments or bands are recognized. In the US, 574 tribes or bands are federally recognized.

Russia: Plan B -- December 16, 2022

Remember Russia's threat to embargo its oil if the EU set a $60 cap on its oil.

That was Plan A. 

Price cap passed.

Plan B. 

Link here.

The Southern Surge -- LA Times -- December 16, 2022

Updates

Later, 1:25 p.m. CT: a reader responds. I replied to the reader and posted that reply.

Original Post

Wow, wow, wow, from the Los Angeles Times today:

The story is here, perhaps behind a paywall: 

I agree 1000%. I've said that on the blog before. Said it a long time ago. I said it well before this, but the tipping point for me was when "every" Texas county along the Mexican border, including ground zero, El Paso, voted for "open borders" Beto.

Talking GDP -- December 16, 2022

Remember all that talk about China's GDP surpassing that of the US? I don't know where that stands but over in "free" Asia, link here:

This was predicted to occur at some time in the future but this is a lot sooner than expected:

Taiwan GDP: will surpass the GDP of both Japan and South Korea, next year, 2023

• forecast:
• ahead of Japan in 2028;
• ahead of South Korea in2027

With regard to that first question: where the US and China stand with regard to GDP. BiMAGA -- cutting China off at the knees -- semiconductors; energy; Covid -- maybe China's GDP won't surpass that of the US. Let's look. The forecast last year: China's GDP would pass that of the US next year, 2023.

Well, well, well, same source, different story:

Most interesting lead: over the long term, labor shortages stemming from the country's dwindling population will act as a drag on its economic growth.

By the way, I can't remember if I posted this, but a few days ago, Peter Zeihan suggested that the real reason for Presidnet Xi relaxing Covid restricctions was for exactly that reason: the Chinese population is falling faster than expected.

ESPO Update -- December 16, 2022

ESPO: all of a sudden it's in the news. LOL. Again, I can't thank enough the reader who pointed me in this direction. All things ESPO at this post.

Again, the Kamala Harris explanation:

• Russia has two main brands of oil: ESPO and Urals
• ESPO: goes to Asia -- China, Japan, Korea
• Urals: goes to Europe (not so much any more)
• $60-cap applies to sea-going tankers
• pronouns for Russian oil: it / they
  

Today: 

• Russia's Urals averaged $57 / bbl, last month (Nov 15 - Dec 14, 2022)
• Russia's ESPO: oil tanker owners show signs of shunning Russia's Asian crude
• shipbrokers say it's proving hard to find tankers for ESPO oil
• tanker tracking points to decline in exports from Kozmino
• Kozmino? Map here.

Beleaguered Appalachian Gas Pipelines Would Reduce Emissions -- December 16, 2022

Avatar: opening tonight. Trending toward $200 million in advance tickets. We're going to the 6:00 p.m. show tonight. Due to length of movie, three hours, the movie begins exactly at 6:00 p.m. -- no previews, no commercials. Link here.

ESPO: update.

Coal: big story today -- being posted everywhere. Global coal consumption hit an all-time record. Apparently the IEA was the only one surprised by this. Looks like reality trumps the myth of global warming.

• link here; and,
• here.

Unmitigated disaster: Merkel's energy plan. Trump saw this coming. 

Weather: speaking of which. Are folks noticing how fast it got so cold both in the US and in Europe?

Strep: I was really happy with my post last night regarding strep. I don't know how it could have been presented any more simply.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 42.

WTI: $74.39. Down almost $2 overnight. Is anybody getting the feeling that the "caps" are working too well -- consuming nations have told OPEC they won't pay more than $60 -- we've talked about this before.

Natural gas: $6.439

Sunday, December 18, 2022: 49 for the month, 158 for the quarter, 702 for the year.
39022, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 4H,
39003, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 7-33-4TFH,
38936, conf, CLR, Roxy 8-31H,
37895, conf, Enerplus, Gallium 147-93-17A-20H,
37894, conf, Enerplus, Osmium 147-93-17B-20H,

Saturday, December 17, 2022: 44 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 697 for the year.
39023, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 3H,
39002, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 6-33-4TFH,
38937, conf, CLR, Roxy 7-31H1,
38862, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 2-20H,

Friday, December 16, 2022: 40 for the month, 149 for the quarter, 693 for the year.
38932, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 3-33-4H,
36900, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H,
36178, conf, BR, Geeorge 2D TFH,

RBN Energy: beleaguered Appalachian gas pipelines would reduce emissions (which is important for some folks; not for me).

Natural gas pipeline project permitting sits at the nexus of the debate about the best path toward decarbonization. Industry proponents rightly point out that pipelines can reduce aggregate emissions by displacing much higher burner-tip emissions from coal in power generation. Environmental opposition, though, highlights that a high rate of methane emissions along the gas value chain could undermine those potential improvements. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the net decarbonization impact of new gas pipelines, including the importance of quantifying upstream methane emissions, by looking at a couple of canceled or long-delayed pipeline projects that could make a big difference.

Over the last six years, developers have canceled five major projects proposed to take Appalachian gas to premium markets on the East Coast: Williams’s Constitution Pipeline, UGI Energy Services’ PennEast Pipeline, Dominion Energy’s Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP), Enbridge’s Access Northeast expansion of Algonquin Gas Transmission, and Kinder Morgan’s Northeast Energy Direct expansion of Tennessee Gas Pipeline. All but Northeast Energy Direct were canceled after receiving Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificates, which even six years ago nearly guaranteed that a proposed gas pipeline project would be completed. Equitrans continues to pursue key federal permits for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) after court rulings early this year sided with environmental groups and revoked its permits for the umpteenth time. That project is now eight years into its development, with an unclear timeline for completion.