Just Released -- Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- July, 2019

About a 2% decrease month-over-month.

Link here.

US Oil Production Stays Flat 1H19

From SeekingAlpha contributor, HFIR:

• EIA 914 came out today and US oil production for June 2019 came in at 12.082 mb/d
• US oil production for the first 6-months of 2019 was flat versus exit December 2018 figures
• But production growth will be heavily weighted in the 2nd half of the year
• We have US oil production exiting 2019 at 12.95 mb/d
• US oil production is at ~12.45 mb/d today and 12.6 mb/d in September

Archived. A must-read. It will disappear behind a paywall soon.

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The Grilling Page

Today I will be grilling flank steak directly on the charcoal.

From wiki:

Skirt steak is a thin, long cut of beef from the diaphragm muscles of the cow.

• Flavor and texture: Skirt steak has even more intense beefy flavor than flank steak. It does contain more tough muscles than flank steak, though, so should only be cooked to rare or medium rare for the most tender texture.

Flank Steak is from the bottom abdominal area of the cow, so it contains a lot of hard-working muscles.

• The meat has a lot of tough fibers running through it and is fairly lean.
• It’s a thicker, wider cut of meat than skirt steak. 
• Flank steak has tons of intense beefy flavor but can be a little tough. Eat it thinly sliced and cut against the grain for maximum tenderness. 
• Flanks steaks take to marinades very well, and some marinades can help to tenderize the meat. High heat and quick cooking is the best way to cook flank steak. It can be stuffed, grilled, or seared.

North Dakota's General Fund Revenues Exceeded Forecast; 2017 - 2019 Biennium Closed Out

From The Bismarck Tribune: general fund revenues exceed North Dakota legislature's forecast. Data points:

• last two-year budget cycle came in at 5.4% over the forecast adopted in March, 2019
• most of the overage due to an excess of earnings from the Legacy Fund 
• that's how Warren Buffett describes his Berkshire earnings: as an excess ... LOL
• the 2017 - 2019 biennium ended June 30, 2019, with $250 million in general fund revenues
• $250 million / 800,000 = $300/person
• total collected in the biennium: $4.91 billion
• actual general fund revenues exceeded the 2017 forecast by 13.5%.

See Kiplinger's negative report about North Dakota, January, 2019. It gets tedious.

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The Apple Page

Six years ago, or thereabouts, I decided it was time to buy a new iPad. I was still using an old iPad version 2. I think Apple is well into version 6 or greater, and now with many, many different versions.

Version 2 became available in 2011. Version 3, which we did not buy, became available in 2012. 

I finally bought one -- at Costco. The 12.9" iPad Pro -- the largest available.

I made the decision after my son-in-law commented on how incredible he found the iPad Pro.

Wow, it is incredible. Set-up was 20 seconds; about three steps. Connected seamlessly to remote speakers. Synced automatically with all other Apple devices we have.

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The Book Page

For the weekend, a small little hardcover:

• The Weil Conjectures: On Math and the Pursuit Of The Unknown, Karen Olsson, c. 2019.

Bought unseen after reading a review in WSJ a few weeks ago.

The author:

• author of novels Waterloo; and, All The Houses
• has written for The New York Times Magazine, Slate, Bookforum, and, Texas Monthly
• former editor of the Texas Observer
• graduate of Harvard University with a degree in mathematics
• lives in Austin, TX

Jacket synopsis begins: Karen Olsson's stirring and unusual third book, The Weil Conjectures, tells the story of the brilliant Weil siblings -- Simone, a philosopher, mystic and social activist, and André, an influential mathematician -- while also recalling the years Olsson spent studying math.

Week 35: August 25, 2019 -- August 31, 2019

Top international non-energy story:

• One step closer to a "no-deal" Brexit; the Queen supports PM's plan to "suspend" Parliament

Top international energy story:

•  US gasoline demand set an all-time record;

 Top national non-energy story:

• US economy
• US consumer confidence at 19-year high
• Starbucks quits selling newspapers nationwide 

Top national energy story:

• US gasoline demand set an all-time record;
• US oil inventory: colossal draw; by end of week, little effect on price of crude oil

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• General fund revenues exceed ND Legislature's forecast

Top North Dakota energy story: 

• "Rich gas" EOR; and, here: Liberty Resources; and, here;
• TENORM proposal for Williston, ND
  

Geoff Simon's top ND stories: 

• NDIC approves $250,000 grant to support "wise roads" initiative; aimed at improving movement of heavy truck traffic in western North Dakota; will better identify only those gravel roads impacted by rain events leading to weight restrictions
• ND optimistic about CBR to Washington state

Operations:

• Nine Point Energy with five nice Little Muddy wells;
• First CLR LCU well is being drilled
• Update on the CLR Elm Tree unit; and, here; 
• Twenty-two permits renewed; seven new permits; 
• Slawson's River Rat Federal wells in Big Bend updated; 
• Oasis' Nordeng wells updated;
• Huge Patsy well reported by Oasis
• True Oil well in Red Wing Creek updated
• Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8 celebrated 58 years of production

Halo effect:

• WPX Sweet Grass Woman, Spotted Horn

Pipeline:

• Nebraska Supreme Court upholds routing for Keystone XL

Bakken 101:

• Sweet spots in the Bakken; and, here; and, here;
• The Bakken is expanding: Tier 2 becoming Tier 1
• Re-fracks
• Rigs, DUCs, completed wells;
  

Sweet Spots In The Bakken -- August 31, 2019

The other day -- I guess it was yesterday -- I was thinking about / writing about "sweet spots" in the Bakken.

A reader sent me this, probably considered by many to be the "Bible" for geologists as far as "memoirs" are concerned.

Giant Fields of the Decade 2000 2010, R. K. Merrill; C. A. Sternbach, AAPG Volume 113, c. 2017. Chapter 6: The Giant Continuous Oil Accumulation in the Bakken Petroleum System, US Williston Basin, Stephen A. Sonnenberg, Cosima Theloy, Hui Jin, January 1, 2017.

From GeoScienceWorld:

The Williston Basin Bakken petroleum system is a giant continuous accumulation. The petroleum system is characterized by low-porosity and -permeability reservoirs, organic-rich source rocks, and regional hydrocarbon charge. Total Bakken and Three Forks production to December 2014 was 1.289 billion barrels (bbl) of oil and 1.3 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) from 12,051 wells. U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) (Gaswirth et al., 2013) mean technologically recoverable resource estimates for the Bakken petroleum system are 7.375 billion barrels of oil, 6.7 tcf of gas, and 527 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

The Bakken Formation regionally in the Williston Basin consists of four members: upper and lower organic-rich black shale, a middle member (silty dolostone or limestone to sandstone lithology), and a basal member recently named the Pronghorn. The Bakken Formation ranges in thickness from a wedge edge to over 140 ft (43 m) with the thickest area in the Bakken located in northwest North Dakota, east of the Nesson anticline.

The Three Forks is a silty dolostone throughout much of its stratigraphic interval. The Three Forks ranges in thickness from less than 25 ft (8 m) to over 250 ft (76 m) in the mapped area. Thickness patterns are controlled by paleostructural features such as the Poplar Dome, Nesson, Antelope, Cedar Creek, and Bottineau anticlines. Thinning and/or truncation occurs over the crest of the highs, and thickening of strata occurs on the flanks of the highs. The Three Forks can be subdivided into three units (up to six by some authors; e.g., Webster, 1984; Gutierrez, 2014; Gantyno, 2011). Most of the development activity in the Three Forks targets the upper Three Forks.

The upper Three Forks is dominated by silt-sized quartz and dolomite and some very fine-grained sandstones and has low permeabilities and porosities. The upper Three Forks ranges in thickness from a wedge edge to over 40 ft (12 m) in areas east of the Nesson anticline. The unit thins toward the margins of the depositional basin because of erosional truncation.

The upper and lower shale members are potential source rocks and are lithologically similar throughout much of the basin. The shales are regarded as dominantly type II kerogens. The shales average 11 wt.% total organic carbon.

Measured core porosity and permeability are very low in the Bakken, Sanish, and Three Forks reservoirs. Reservoir pressure in the Bakken is regarded as overpressured with pressure gradients exceeding 0.5 psi/ft.

A new pressure map for the Bakken petroleum system was generated. The map is based on 92 BHP (bottom-hole pressure) and DFIT (diagnostic fracture injection test) data points, including six additional hydrostatic points at the eastern margin as well as six data points for the Sanish–Parshall area.

High overpressures are found in large parts of the central basin and the Parshall area in the east, where gradients exceed 0.7 psi/ft. Elm Coulee has a pressure gradient around 0.55 psi/ft. Parshall is reported to have a gradient of 0.74 psi/ft. The area west of the Nesson anticline has pressure gradients of 0.6 to 0.7 psi/ft. Pressure gradients in Montana are generally in the 0.51 psi/ft range. 

One can buy this book or read more about it at Amazon.  This particular book was the fifth in a series of "memoirs" that began "nearly 50 years ago."

From FAQs, link here:

82a. What do you mean by Bakken 2.0? See this post. Two important data points:

• I set October 19, 2016, as the beginning of Bakken 2.0
• the event that triggered the Bakken 2.0 designation: the SM Energy announcement that it was selling some Bakken acreage/assets to Oasis
• it appears Permian Shale 2.0 began with the WPX, Noble, and XOM announcements regarding acquisitions in the Permian -- late 2016/early 2017

82b. What do you mean by Bakken 2.5? See this post.

• Bakken 1.0: began in the summer of 2007; it was originally tagged "Bakken101" and I continue to use the "Bakken101" tag 
• Bakken 2.0: October 19, 2016
• Bakken 2.5: April 10, 2018 -- correlates/corresponds with CLR's new completion strategies; North Dakota crude oil production to set new records; increased focus on the Permian vs the Bakken
• Bakken 3.0: when the new USGS Bakken survey is released 

Perry Mason -- August 30, 2019

I'm heading to bed.

I have now watched the seventeenth episode of season 1 of "Perry Mason." It is, by far, my favorite episode so far.

A quick google search: so far, this episode is not singled out as one of the best. It is. One of the best.

Later: someone who says he/she has never seen "Perry Mason" asked whether it was better to start from the beginning and view them sequentially, or watch them without paying attention to that.

In the big scheme of things, it probably doesn't matter, but the fact that the complete series is now available, I would think viewing them sequentially makes the most sense.

Episode 17 was my favorite so far because it showed a more human side of several of the characters.

Compared to "modern" law and order / detective shows, "Perry Mason" is probably least rigorous. There appear to be lots of inconsistencies, and open ends by the end of the show. 

What The Bakken Is All About -- Look At This Jump In Production -- Old, Old Well -- New Life -- August 30, 2019

Updates

August 31, 2019: look at the production profile of the Bill Connolly well below. A reader who really follows this closely made this observation:

Looking at the numbers for #16736, Bill Connolly refrac, we see just under 8 million gallons of produced water (188,102 barrels) over 92 days whereas only 6 million gallons were used for the refrac.

Hmmm ...

That production profile (for 16736) would seem to indicate that virtually all the water used in the frac was slowly brought to the surface, thereby keeping the formation at a much higher pressure.

Furthermore, the indisputable extra 2 million gallons must have come from the nearby fracs. Seems to my eye as incontrovertible evidence of both hydraulic communication and VERY positive consequences.

Original Post

 

Previous note:

May 16, 2019, see this post --

• 34046, 3,091, MRO, Two Bar 34-55H, API: 33-025-00650, Bailey, t4/19; cum 152K 4/20; section 35-146-94;
• neighboring wells:
• 16736, just returned to production; see recent production profile below; huge production jump;
• 25484, off line; just came back on line, 6/19; worth looking at again in 7/19;
• 25482, off line; four days in 4/19; back on line, no change in production profile;

So, let's look at #16736 --

• 16736, 377, MRO, Bill Connolly 21-25H, Bailey, t1/08; cum 416K 4/20; recent production, jumps from less than 1,000 bbls/month to more than 30,000 bbls/month:; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	22893	22808	31176	20766	14015	4676
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	24374	24525	46403	19440	10248	6967
BAKKEN	4-2019	26	29475	29535	90245	20752	5344	12964
BAKKEN	3-2019	5	4502	3755	20278	3154	557	2030
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	23	440	3	19	6	9
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	844	680	243	786	420	128
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	817	910	143	766	478	58
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	837	1103	138	797	530	29

Yes it was re-fracked:

• 6 million gallons of water: a medium-size frack;
• 90%water; 10% sand 

A brand new well for the fraction of what it cost when it was a "greenfield" well. And "we" start over. 

Random Update Of A CLR Whitman Well In Oakdale Oil Field -- August 30, 2019

I'm going to quit following this well. This is the background for this well;

May 14, 2019, #20212. See this post.

October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016: 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.672864 million bbls 6/19; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line September, 2016; updated here; see this post, 3/19; something doesn't add up. Very interesting profile;

Here is the most recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	7460	7411	2064	7384	6983	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	10358	10178	3118	9229	8075	751
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	9329	9560	3125	8908	8352	165
BAKKEN	3-2019	30	10131	9975	5804	9842	9299	159
BAKKEN	2-2019	24	5997	5843	4104	5632	5345	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	20	6642	6922	1753	7250	5874	1133
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	12158	12190	3987	13439	11887	1133
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	13999	14197	6835	15432	14036	1011
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	2075	1375	1231	2073	1580	443
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	221	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	2	0	0	19	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	22	0	21	1	0	0

Follow-Up Of An Old Whiting Smokey Well In Pembroke Oil Field -- August 30, 2019

From an old note:

April 3, 2019: check on the wells in parentheses that are off line:

• 35291, 1,760, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22TFHU, Pembroke, t3/19; cum --;  (#20516 off line; #20596 -- off line); both #20516 and #20596 are now back on line, 4/19; nice wells; (#20516 with nice jump in production; needs stand-alone post update)
• 35290, 2,317, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22H, Pembroke, t3/19; cum 109K 5/19 (huge well); (#26943 -- off line, #25361 -- off line); both coming back on line, 4/19; no jump in production 6/19;

So, let's look at #20516:

• 20516, 50 (no typo), Whiting, Smokey 15-22-15-2HS, Pembroke, t12/11; cum 365K 6/19; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	5096	5035	7071	6496	4927	1569
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	3825	3803	5180	6644	3238	3406
BAKKEN	4-2019	20	1485	1460	1215	4904	4069	835
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	26	2209	2347	1900	10223	9979	168
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	2534	2658	2293	12683	8075	4515
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	3160	3133	2847	17346	15358	1895
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	3719	3656	2991	10827	10656	81
BAKKEN	5-2018	24	1539	1467	1075	3065	3006	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	28	2185	2230	1568	4806	4725	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2452	2475	1804	6121	6028	0

Old Buelingo Well In Elm Tree Oil Field With Jump In Production -- August 30, 2019

Old Buelingo well with huge jump in production. See this link.

John Svedrup To Go Into Production Soon -- August 30, 2019

The John Svedrup oil play is followed here (also at the sidebar at the right).

From Reuters:

Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field could begin oil shipments in October, earlier than the scheduled November start, ...

... 11 cargoes in October ...

... implies that loadings from Johan Sverdrup, the largest North Sea discovery in more than three decades, will average around 226,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October.

Daily production from the field’s first phase is projected to reach peak output of 440,000 bpd of oil in summer 2020, and will likely rise to a peak of 660,000 bpd once the second phase comes on stream in late 2022 ...

226,000 / 11 = 20,000 bbls/loading.

WTI Slips To $55; Four New Permits -- August 30, 2019

Active rigs (Baker Hughes says "51" for Williston Basin:

$55.07	8/30/2019	08/30/2018	08/30/2017	08/30/2016	08/30/2015
Active Rigs	64	62	54	33	76

Four new permits, #36928 - #36931, inclusive:

• Operator: XTO
• Field: Heart Butte (DUN)
• Comments: XTO has permits for a 4-well FBIR Guyblackhawk pad in section 27-149-92, Heart Butte oil field

Released from confidential list today:

• 32442, 1,468, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 1H, Williston, t5/19; cum 85K 7/19;
• 32443, 1,560, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 2H, Williston, t5/19; cum 58K 7/19;
• 35985, 1,169, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 6H, Williston, t6/19; cum 51K 7/19;
• 35986, 1,158, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 7H, Williston, t6/19; cum 48K 7/19;
• 35987, 696, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 8H, Williston, t6/19; cum 37K 7/19;

Two permits canceled:

• White Butte: two Jore Federal permits in McKenzie County

Five permits renewed:

• Hess (3): three SC-Ellingsberg permits in Williams County
• Slawson (2): two Phatkat Federal permits in Mountrail County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35975, 1,834, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-4H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/19; cum --;
• 34742, 914,  Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 8B, Elidah, t6/19; cum 14K over 22 days;
• 34939, 3,739, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-12, Alkali Creek, t7/19; cum --;
• 34938, 3,246,  Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-11, Alkali Creek, t7/19; cum --;
• 33237, 900, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-7, Antelope-Sanish, t7/19; cum --;
• 34941, 3,333,  Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-2, Alkali Creek, t8/19; cum --;

From A Year Ago -- Top 10 CLR-Operated Wells In The Bakken -- August 30, 2019

Updates

Later, 4:01 p.m. CT: looking at the top 10 CLR-operated wells listed below -- the following updates:

• 31520, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31521, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 6-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31522, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31523, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;

Original Note

Note: the definition of "top-10 well" may differ from operator to operator, from analyst to analyst. Is it:

• the 24-hr IP?
• the first full day-day production number?
• the first full 90 days of production?
• the first full 120 days of production?
• the EUR type curve?

From August 11, 2018, CLR's 2Q18 corporate presentation:

Top 10 CLR-operated wells Bakken wells (those in bold red make the top 10 list for the entire Bakken -- all operators):

• Mountain Gap 7-10H (#1 of all Bakken wells) (see this post; one post among many)
• Monroe 6-2H (tracked here)
• Mountain Gap 8-10H1 (#2 of all Bakken wells)
• Lansing 6-25H (tracked here)
• Uhlman Federal 3-7H (#3 of all Bakken wells) (tracked here, along with the Pittsburg wells)
• Pittsburgh 3-7H (#4 of all Bakken wells) (tracked here, along with the Uhlman Federal wells)
• Vardon 2-14H (tracked here) [a lot of wells in this area recently fracked (6/19)]
• Tarentaise Federal 1-19H
• Vardon 4-14H
• Tarentaise Federal 3-19H (tracked here); old Buelingo well with huge jump in production;

Things are changing so fast in the Bakken and the production is increasing so fast on newer wells it's becoming harder and harder to compare apples to oranges (new wells to old wells).

With "rich gas" EOR the challenge will become even more difficult.

The good news:

• "every" well completed before 2012 needs to be either re-drilled and re-completed, or simply re-completed (lots of work yet to be done in the Bakken)  
• between 2014 and 2018, operators were focused on better completion strategies
• it's possible, we're in a "plateau" stage right now: waiting for all operators to get to same level 
• the next production/well breakout may be in 2020 or 2022
• the middle Bakken is pretty much fully mapped
• the Three Forks first bench is getting there
• there is very, very little public information regarding the second bench
• "no" information regarding the third bench; and, 
• now the Red River formation might be getting more attention

Some operators and some fields have been incredible from "day 1." The question is: could those wells -- the very best wells in the Bakken -- could they have been even better with current completion strategies? 

Sweet Spots Are Over-Emphasized In The Bakken -- August 30, 2019

[Later: more on "sweet spots" in the Bakken." A reminder: the Bakken "heat map" is linked at the sidebar at the right.]

Original Post

Either I'm way off base or laymen are getting really, really, good at defining "sweet spots."

Like down to the half-mile.

About seven years after I started to blog, I started to think/realize that the whole issue of "sweet spots" in the Bakken was being over-emphasized. The Bakken geographic footprint is not that huge. I've read a lot of geologists' reports over the years, and the thing that strikes me the most: the Bakken is pretty uniform.

I wish I had a date-time stamp for when I first thought that sweet spots in the Bakken were over-emphasized; it probably would have been in 2014 or thereabouts, after seven years of blogging.

The skill of the operator; the roughnecks; the frackers; and, the completion strategies, I think, mean a whole lot more than what "sweet spots" mean, all things being equal. If I had mineral rights in the Bakken I would be more interested in the operator than the location, at least going forward.

Case study.

First, go back to this post.

The "original" Hess EN-Davenport middle Bakken well: an absolutely lousy well based on total production. This well has produced barely 80,000 bbls in eleven years of production. "Modern" Bakken wells are producing that much in three months.

Now, fast forward to a recently completed CLR McClintock well.

The two wells:

• 16928, 82 (no typo), Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-1, Big Butte, t11/108; cum 81K 6/19; 
• 35538, 1,833, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t2/19; cum 117K 

For newbies:

• the Davenport well: 81,000 bbls in eleven years;
• the McClintock well: 117,000 bbls in 129 days

The wells are sited 4.4 miles from each other.

The horizontals are about 4 miles from each other. 

It's hard for me to believe that one well is in a "sweet spot" while the other one is not.

If one is in a sweet spot and the other is not, it's very, very clear to me that sweet spots can be incredibly localized in the incredibly uniform Bakken.

The graphics:

If sweet spots are important, it appears we're down to measuring "sweet spots" with less than a couple of miles in diameter. Those two "circular" areas above have a radius of about two miles. 

Case Study: The Hess EN-Davenport Wells -- August 30, 2019

Background and purpose of posting: the "original" EN-Davenport well in this area (see graphics below) was drilled in 2008, the early days of the Bakken. After almost eleven years of production this well has produced only 81,000 bbls of oil. Based on notes from readers over the past twelve years of blogging, most readers would suggest that this well is "uneconomic." And yet, Hess did not abandon it. Why? Answer: the company held the lease by production. And, oh, by the way, this is going to be a great well at some point.

Point #2: let's talk. Can we be frank? The original Davenport well is lousy. But there they go again. Hess has permits for a 7-well pad less than 2,000 feet away and the nearest "new" horizontal will be about a thousand feet from the original well. Now either Hess considers the original Davenport well worthy of being replicated, or much more likely, the combination of experience, lessons learned, new completion strategies, etc., --- and most importantly -- what they've learned about the geology -- suggests to Hess they can get some pretty good wells in this area. Remember, Bakken operators now suggest they won't drill a well with a(n) EUR of less than a million bbls of crude oil. And each well "stands alone."

Point #3: ever since the Bakken boom began, there was a lot of talk about "sweet spots," and I bought into that argument. Many years ago, but I never posted my thoughts at the time, I started to think that "sweet spots" in the Bakken were being over-emphasized. Just as I argue that "rigs don't matter" in shale plays, I'm now ready to go out on this limb: "sweet spots" don't matter. I wish I had a date-time stamp for when I first thought that; it probably would have been in 2014 or thereabouts, after seven years of blogging. I'll discuss sweet spots in a later blog in greater depth.

By the way, for newbies, I am the only one who argues that "rigs don't matter"; no one agrees with me based on feedback from readers.

The graphics:

The wells:

• 16928, 82 (no typo), Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-1, Big Butte, t11/08; cum 81K 6/19;

• 35522, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport ...
• 35521, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport ...
• 35520, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport ... unit line well;
• 35519, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport ... unit line well;
• 35518, conf, Hess, EN-Person ...
• 35517, conf, Hess, EN-Person ...

Note: it is possible that one or more of these permits will be canceled before it's all over. 

I May Take The Day Off -- Good Luck To All -- August 30, 2019

This has to reassure investors.

Apparently, the IPO will list only on the Saudi exchange initially; Japan, possibly the second exchange. Will "shun" New York, Hong Kong markets.

Bakken Is Expanding -- Tier 2 Becoming Tier 1 -- August 30, 2019

We started talking about this several weeks (months?) ago.

First, a screenshot from The Williston Herald, August 29, 2019:

Then, this from Hart Energy:

The performance of a trio of step-out wells drilled by Continental Resources Inc., one of the biggest oil producers in the U.S., has again proven that optimized completion designs are working in the Bakken.

“As expected these three wells are outperforming nearby legacy wells by 80% to 110% during the first 60 days and preliminary estimates show these wells are delivering up to 100% rates of return,” Jack Stark, the company’s president, said on an earnings call April 30. “This is great news for our shareholders as we can confidently say that the value and performance of our inventory of approximately 4,000 Bakken wells continues to grow. We can also say that the core of the Bakken … just got bigger.”

Two of the wells, both in North Dakota, recorded 24-hour IPs of at least 2,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), while a third—in Montana—flowed 1,680 boe/d.The wells were drilled in the far western and southern parts of the company’s legacy Bakken acreage. So “we feel good that the areas in between are going to respond,” Stark said, noting Continental is also pushing farther north.

This comes as the company moves deeper into multizone unit development across its vast oil-rich Bakken acreage, having already completed nearly 200 optimized developed wells since early 2017.

Completion designs for the three step-outs varied based on the area, but the company said it essentially used closer perf cluster spacing and more stages and proppant than it has used historically in the areas.

August 5, 2019, presentation: on the fringes of the Bakken --

• far, far west: Montana's Baird Federal 2-34H, 1,680 boepd 24-hour IP; outperforming legacy well by 100% at 120 days
• far, far southwest: North Dakota's Burian 4-27H1, 2,400 boepd 24-hour IP; outperforming legacy well by 75% at 120 days
• clearly outside tier 1 core: North Dakota's McClintock 8-1H1 2,440 boepd 24-hour IP; outperforming legacy well by 145% at 120 days

By the way, something else to note:

• years ago, Lynn Helms suggested a Three Forks well next to a middle Bakken well is likely to be better than the middle Bakken well; note that both of the North Dakota wells were first bench Three Forks wells
• also note: the third well noted: it's production is outperforming the legacy well by 145% at 120 days
• Bakken was selling in the 20's during the Saudi Surge just a few years ago
• Bakken: now selling in the 40s; much better takeaway capacity, cuts transportation costs

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

*************************************

The CLR McClintock Wells

The graphics:

The wells:

• 22031, 819, CLR, McClintock 1-1H, Pleasant Valley, t6/12; cum 221K 6/19;
• 35538, 1,833, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t2/19; cum 117K 6/19;

This well really does open up another great area.
Note:

• "chronologic" number for #35538: #8
• in less than four months, the newer well has produced 50% of what the older well has produced in seven years
• well costs have come down significantly over the last seven years -- seven years -- yup, it's been that long between these two wells

• First six months for the older well #22031, middle Bakken:

BAKKEN	10-2012	30	8300	8755	5485	20171	20171	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	10951	10721	5328	11559	0	11559
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	11595	11914	5038	13284	0	13284
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	13755	13321	6825	15662	0	15662
BAKKEN	6-2012	22	12271	12087	9457	13830	0	13830
BAKKEN	5-2012	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• First five months for the newer well, #35538, Three Forks, 1st bench:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	22245	22340	23008	41922	41228	290
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	27757	27372	29607	42155	39865	1874
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	37674	37739	40642	55270	25213	29669
BAKKEN	3-2019	19	18869	18827	25922	26858	10007	16610
BAKKEN	2-2019	9	10618	10246	15647	14223	4089	10134

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- August 30, 2019

WTI is back! Link here. 

Crude in New York clung to gains as investors focused on depleting oil stockpile levels at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial oil depot in the U.S. 

Futures in New York climbed as much as 1.6% on Thursday, while Brent’s gain remained limited. Data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed stockpiles at the Cushing storage hub at the lowest level since December 2018 as the startup of new pipelines from the Permian help to relieve inventory pressure. 

These Permian conduits enable oil supplies to bypass Cushing and head straight for markets overseas, which is allowing WTI to rally and is holding back Brent. 

Crude futures in New York are poised for the biggest weekly gain since mid-July as U.S. government data this week showed declines in crude and fuel stockpiles. Investor sentiment has also improved as statements from China’s Commerce Ministry signaled the country wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase. President Donald Trump said Thursday that the U.S. and China are scheduled to have a conversation about trade today.

No wells coming off the confidential list today: reason explained yesterday.

Active rigs:

$55.97	8/30/2019	08/30/2018	08/30/2017	08/30/2016	08/30/2015
Active Rigs	63	62	54	33	76

RBN Energy: Alliance Pipeline's role in moving natural gas from western Canada, part 5.

Canadian natural gas production — over 95% of which originates in Alberta and British Columbia — has averaged about 16 Bcf/d in 2018 and 2019 year-to-date, and this past January, it topped 16.7 Bcf/d, just shy of the peaks last seen in the mid-2000s. Production has stayed strong even as prices at AECO, the gas benchmark hub, have plummeted to historical lows in the face of relentless competition from U.S. gas supplies, slower demand growth locally, and pipeline takeaway constraints. Under these conditions, producers’ future growth prospects will come down to access to local and export demand, and that means there needs to be adequate pipeline capacity to reach those destination markets. Today, we continue our analysis of existing and potential pipeline takeaway capacity and utilization out of the region, this time with a focus on the Alliance Pipeline system.

Anyone Not Paying Attention Is Missing An Opportunity Of A Lifetime -- August 30, 2019

Updates

September 5, 2019: August jobs increase significantly -- huge story -- will get little media play --

• making America great -- private payrolls grew by 195,000
• forecast: 140,000 
• 100,000 of those new jobs came in education and health services
• the jump comes amid heightened fears that the US could slip into recession in next 12 months -- CNBC

September 2, 2019: JP Morgan says it's finally time to buy stocks despite trade woes. Link here at Bloomberg. It's hard for me to believe that JPM would say it's finally time to buy stocks if their analysts felt that there was a "recession right around the corner."


September 2, 2019: Link here.  My graph-filled post below -- the original post -- was posted three days ago, August 30, 2019. Today, published "two hours ago," CNBC has posted an almost exact copy of my post, LOL, even including the rarely seen Cass Freight Index. LOL. They posted a few graphs that I did not post: the ones that supported their case, of course, for "a recession right around the corner." 

September 1, 2019: Link here.

U.S. households ramped up their spending in July, providing reassurance that the economy’s decade-long expansion continued to roll despite slowing factory activity and global growth.

Personal-consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July from June, a pickup from the previous two months, the Commerce Department said Friday, continuing a solid performance by the economy’s main driving force.

“The consumer is still very sturdy and providing fundamental strength to the overall economy,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. “As long as we see a strong job market...the direction of the economy continues to be on track: positive but slowing.”  

Tell me again how tariffs are hurting / scaring the American consumer.

Link here. And you know, the up-surge in consumer spending is even bigger than I expected based on the lukewarm report.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Any investor not paying attention is missing an opportunity of a lifetime. Such opportunities don't come around often.

"Recession is right around the corner." How long have "we" been talking about the next recession? This is from Kiplinger, January 25, 2019 -- almost a year ago -- "states most unprepared for the next recession." It gets tedious.

Tariff war: peaked in 2Q19; is now winding down 

"Fed": will continue to cut rates; already at historic lows

2020 president campaign: officially underway; unlikely a sitting president would let an economy go sour during a re-election campaign

G-7:

• mainstream media unable to come up with consistent anti-Trump story
• Trump skating to wear the puck will be
• Trump - Boris: post-Brexit plans; huge trade deal
• Trump - Abe: huge agriculture initiatives
• Trump: remained laser-focused on US economy
• ignored Iranian party-crasher
• ignored France who invited the party-crasher
• met with those who could add most to US economy: UK, Japan

China: yuan on course for worst month since 1994; economy "deepens" in August;


US-Mexico: pipeline meddling resolved in US favor

Afghanistan: troop drawdown


WSJ, US 2Q19 growth slowed, corporate profits rose, link here:

• GDP growth, a "solid pace" at 2.0%, down from first reading of 2.1%
• US corporate profits rebounded (remember: tariff war at its worse during this period, 2Q19)
• corporate earnings surged almost 5% from the prior quarter
• compare with 1Q19: corporate profits declined 1.5%
• compare with 4Q18: corporate profits declined 1.5%
• most recent quarter: corporate profits increased 4.8%
• corporate profits up almost 2% year-over-year
• consumer spending (remember: tariff war at its worse during this period): up almost 5% (annual rate in 2Q19
• consumer spending 2Q19: the strongest pace since late 2014
• consumer spending: stronger than the previously estimated 4.3% 
• consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of GDP
• US shoppers splurge in face of global headwinds; remember, this was at height of tariff war
  
• 3Q19 GDP: on pace for a 2.2% growth rate 

US consumer sentiment: 19-year high.

US GDP, link here:

Cass Freight Index, link here:

US productivity, link here; and, here:

US labor costs, dropped significantly in 2Q19:

US employment, link here:

US employment, link here:

US unemployment:

Gasoline demand, link here:

US manufacturing: will move back from China to US; will move from Mexico to US.

US energy: speaks for itself.

US equity / US Treasuries yield: this is the real story when looking at "inversions." Bonds, under 2%; equity, approaching 4%.

Anyone complaining about the US economy is one French Fry short of a Happy Meal.