Thursday, March 16, 2023

March Madness: #15 Princeton Defeats #2 Arizona -- Whoo-Hoo! -- March 16, 2023

March madness: everyone's bracket has been ruined! LOL.

  • #15 Princeton just beat #2 Arizona (U); first NCAA tournament win since 1998

MDW investing: Enbridge. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $68.37.

Natural gas: $2.528.

Two new permits, #39738 - #39739, inclusive:

  • Operator: Iron Oil Operating
  • Field: Antelope Creek (McKenzie County)
  • Comments:
    • Iron Oil Operating has two Antelope permits, 4-148-101, 
      • to be sited 468 FNL with one well 616 FEL and the other 566 FEL

Ten permits renewed:

  • SOGC (formerly Sinclair): six Lizzie Rae permits; two Saetz Federal permits; one Crosby Creek permit (Dunn, Little Knife); and one Nelson permit (Mountrail, Kittleson Slough) all in McKenzie, Lone Butte, except as noted;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 38851, 514, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL,

ENB, XOM -- March 16, 2023

ENB: oh, before I get started --

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Now, back to where we were:

ENB:

  • dropped 5% yesterday because folks were worried about a non-event, a global banking run;
  • today ENB was up about 2% during normal duty hours and another 1% after hours
  • currently pays 7.3%
  • and, then, this, link here (note date of article, a few days old):

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Enbridge's earnings per share are down 5.1% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. Given that EPS is down, but the share price is up, it seems clear the market is focussed on other aspects of the business, at the moment.

In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time at the linked article.

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Meanwhile, Is Anyone Paying Attention?

Link here.

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Meanwhile, Down In Houston

Link here.

Southern Surge Inducements -- March 16, 2023

NYC: housing, food, and now a college education is on the table for migrants coming to New York City. But apparently no longer a sanctuary city. But that opportunity for college can hardly be trivialized.

Odds And Ends -- March 16, 2023

So much for all those Apple air tag lawsuits, LOL. Link here


EVs today
:
  • Lordstown (RIDE): down 2.54%. Trading at 72 cents.
  • Nikola (NKLA): up 1.5%. Trading at $1.67.
  • ARVL: up 2.5%. Trading at 17 cents.
  • LCID: up 3%. Trading at $7.62.
  • RIVN: up 1%. Trading at $13.16.
  • FSR: down 1%. Trading at $6.07.
  • GOEV: up 1.5%. Trading at 57 cents.
  • F: flat. Trading at $11.73.

China's Saudi-Iran diplomatic deal: link here.

  • I think, for now, I will follow Peter Zeihan's lead on this. Link here.

The 21st century: America's century. Link here.


Direct to Rigzone / Bloomberg, and archived:

Europe is set to import a record amount of American crude this month, relying increasingly on larger tankers as sanctions on Russian oil upend global trade routes.

Ships hauling as much as 1.84 million barrels a day are set to arrive from the US Gulf in March, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Meanwhile, smaller vessels are getting costly with more being booked to transport Russian oil for journeys to Asia.

The trade boom is another byproduct of Russia’s war in Ukraine — and sanctions that the west slapped on Moscow in reaction to it. The shift probably makes the fleet less efficient, thereby eroding the total supply of tankers, which transport roughly 40% of the world’s oil.

Or Saudi Arabia could simply buy every EV manufacturer in the US and call it a day, link here

Traders Marshal Fleet of Supertankers to Haul USA Oil to Europe -- Bloomberg -- March 16, 2023

Direct to Rigzone / Bloomberg:

Europe is set to import a record amount of American crude this month, relying increasingly on larger tankers as sanctions on Russian oil upend global trade routes.

Ships hauling as much as 1.84 million barrels a day are set to arrive from the US Gulf in March, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. Meanwhile, smaller vessels are getting costly with more being booked to transport Russian oil for journeys to Asia.

The trade boom is another byproduct of Russia’s war in Ukraine — and sanctions that the west slapped on Moscow in reaction to it. The shift probably makes the fleet less efficient, thereby eroding the total supply of tankers, which transport roughly 40% of the world’s oil.

A total of 11 supertankers — known in the trade as Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs — and 16 Suezmax-class vessels are set to arrive in Europe from the US Gulf this month. These big ships are now hauling about 60% of the crude on the route, compared with 37% a year ago. Supertankers can haul about 2 million barrels of oil, while Suezmaxes can carry about 1 million. 

Normally, even smaller ships known as Aframaxes — with a capacity of about 700,000 barrels — are used for the voyage. That’s partially because Europe has only a few ports that can handle supertankers, which are usually reserved for the longest journeys across the globe. 

However, Aframaxes are in short supply these days as traders book the vessels to haul an increasing amount of Russian oil to Asia. Big importers like China and India have been picking up larger volumes as western buyers abandoned the cargoes due to sanctions on Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine.

As a result of the shift, it’s now relatively cheap to hire the biggest ships to haul crude from the US Gulf to Rotterdam. For a supertanker, that cost is about $2.70 per barrel of oil, according to Viktor Katona, lead crude oil analyst at Kpler Ltd. For an Aframax on the same route, it’s about $8.50 per barrel.  

In addition, an increasing number of US-origin Suezmaxes are arriving in Europe partially full, as that’s still a cheaper option than booking an Aframax on a per-barrel basis. More and more American cargoes are also discharging at multiple European ports because there are different buyers.

GDP Estimates Surge -- Building Permits Surge; Jobless Claims Fall; Regional Banks Bounce Back -- And We Keep Hearing How Badly The Economy Is Performing -- March 16, 2023

Fed: all those talking heads urging JPow to raise rates another 75 basis points as recently as last week, I'm not seeing those headlines any more. What happened? 

GDPNow: link here

If JPow wants to slow this economy, the Fed needs to raise rates "higher, sooner, longer."

Link here.

I keep reading all those news stories about how badly the economy is doing (compared to what? ).

From CNBC today:

Russia Dwindling -- March 16, 2023

Before "Russia dwindling, "fight's on": the two most tracked a/c worldwide right now, on Flightradar24, are two USAF a/c, link here:

  • a B-52, departing Spain, heading to Norway; and,
  • a Boeing E-8C Joint STARS, departing Ramstein, Germany, setting up over Poland.

Back to Russia.

Two links today:

also, from oilprice.com today:

And, if you can't trust oilprice.com, who can you trust.

It's amazing how much time folks spend on watching Russia when one considers:



Which means the GDP of Texas is even much greater than that of Saudi Arabia.

And, the gap will widen. By a lot.

Energy Wrap -- March 16, 2023

Is anyone paying attention or is everyone focused on Credit Suisse today?

CVX - div, link here, a 35% increase since 2018. So, I guess if one was being paid $1,000 back in 2018, one is now being paid $1,350. Or thereabouts.

EFuels, Denbury, Chile, Texas And All That Jazz -- RBN Energy -- Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Keyless Entry -- Zeke Released -- And More -- And It's Not Even Friday Yet -- March 16, 2023

North Dakota road conditions today:

Keyless entry: our apartment complex has gone keyless! 

Flightradar24, link here, fight's on!


Lost US drone
: a lot of finger-pointing, but the USAF (specifically General Milley) in this case, blew it. Not Austin III. Not the president (that would be Biden).

Get Up! I haven't watched sports talk television since the Super Bowl, but today I'm tuning in:

  • the Cowboys released Zeke Elliott; and,
  • March Madness commences

Dividends:


My favorite chart: will soon be updated --

  • link here; should be updated within the next few days;

Dividends:

  • I'm way overweight in a certain blue-chip stock;
  • I keep telling myself not to buy any more;
  • its dividend: pays greater than 7%;
  • yeah, I'll be buying more.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

I can't say it enough: thank you to all my twitter followers.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $67.52.

Natural gas: $2.503

Friday, March 17, 2023: 56 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 218 for the year
38656, conf, Oasis, Ramirez 5196 42-32 2B, followed here;
38652, conf,  Oasis, Ramirez 5196 42-32 6BX, a section line well; , followed here;
37649, conf, BR, Tailgunnerr2E TFH,

Thursday, March 16, 2023: 53 for the month; 215 for the quarter, 215 for the year
39151, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-3H,
39141, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 10-5H1, to be tracked here?
39127, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 2-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,
37650, conf, BR, Tailgunner 2F MBH-ULW,
37570, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-31-30H,

RBN Energy: HIF Global advancing plans for first world-scale EFuels plant, part 2

As the push for decarbonization in the transportation sector gathers momentum, electrofuels — also known as eFuels, which are produced by using electricity to combine the hydrogen molecules from water with the carbon from carbon dioxide (CO2) — are beginning to attract attention as an alternative fuel with three important selling points in today’s environment.
First, eFuels are available now and can be made with current technology, although there is a lot of room for future improvements and growth. Second, because they are considered drop-in replacements, they are essentially indistinguishable from the fossil-based conventional fuels in use today, which means they can be used without any changes to the existing energy infrastructure. Third, they can capitalize on a rapidly growing set of hydrogen and CO2 suppliers eager to secure a diversified set of offtakers. In today’s RBN blog, we look at HIF Global’s approach to eFuels production, its demonstration plant in Chile and its big plans for Texas and beyond.

The Texas connection:

The demonstration plant is just a starting point for HIF Global.
Next, let’s look at what HIF USA has in mind for Texas, where its first world-scale facility is being planned for Matagorda County, southwest of Houston.
The project is expected to cost about $6 billion, with construction beginning in Q1 2024 and production commencing in 2027.
Similar to Haru Oni, Chile (about as far south on the continent as one can get), the production process will use captured CO2 and green hydrogen to make low-carbon fuels. HIF USA said February 23, 2023, it is working with Texas-based Denbury to source and transport up to 2 million tons per annum (MMtpa) of CO2 captured from industrial sources.
Denbury is a leader in carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) and has operations in the Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain regions, and already sequesters more than 4 MMtpa of CO2 captured from industrial sources. HIF also plans to work with point sources within proximity of the facility to engineer and install carbon-capture equipment to source more CO2 supply.
To boost its carbon-capture efforts, HIF USA said March 7 that it had also reached an agreement with Baker Hughes to cooperate on developing its Mosaic DAC technology to accelerate deployment at commercial scale. HIF USA said the technology could be deployed at the Haru Oni and Matagorda County locations.
HIF USA is working with Bechtel, Siemens Energy and Topsoe on the Texas facility’s front-end engineering and design (FEED). Bechtel will conduct the engineering and design of the overall facility, while Siemens Energy will be responsible for the engineering and design of its proprietary Silyzer 300 electrolyzers required to produce approximately 300,000 tons per year of green hydrogen at Matagorda. (HIF and Siemens Energy announced March 8 the execution of a manufacturing capacity expansion agreement to ensure the supply of electrolyzers required for the Matagorda project are available.) Topsoe will provide engineering and design for the methanol and methanol-to-gasoline processes, which will combine the green hydrogen and CO2 to produce approximately 1.4 million tons of eMethanol, which would then be synthesized into 750 million liters (200 million gallons) per year of carbon-neutral fuels, most of which will be eGasoline.