For those interested in shale oil, this might be a most interesting read -- from Platts: shale and demand uncertainty have put Big Oil on the defensive. Not mentioned in this article is Shell's recent announcement that it would begin to focus on shale oil and horizontal fracking. Shell recently said it actually drilled two long laterals. Wow.
It is interesting to note that first link, Pioneer Natural Resources says the breakeven point in the Permian is $25/bbl. Likewise, Statoil says its North Sea Field is also profitable at $25. Saudi Arabia can't survive on $25-oil.
Along that same line, the graph that terrorizes Saudi Arabia: Permian oil will have significant effect on total US crude oil production.
Perhaps the biggest story of the week: the EIA reports that US gasoline consumption reached an all-time high for any month -- occurred in June, 2016.
Without question, the most popular posting this week: Vern Whitten's photographs of the Bakken. The "original" Vern Whitten post this past week is here.
Operations
NDIC September hearing dockets released; significant increased number of wells in drilling units
Richard Zeits is optimistic on the Bakken
Pipelines
Dakota Access Pipeline likely to be keystoned, update
Enbridge puts the Sandpiper Pipeline project on hold
Friday, September 2, 2016
Fascinating Read: "Shale And Demand Uncertainty Put Big Oil On Defensive"; Shale's Breakeven Price Is $25/Bbl -- September 2, 2016
For me, the biggest takeaway from this article: Saudi Arabia has much to fear.
First half of the article; much more at the link:
First half of the article; much more at the link:
Under pressure from low oil prices and their rising debt levels, top oil executives at the ONS 2016 conference this week might well have found the blunt message of shale driller Scott Douglas Sheffield unsettling.
The chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources seemed to enjoy the role of spoiler-in-chief, harrying Big Oil with some uncomfortable assertions.
The bad news, for those in the industry who missed out on shale and expected it to fade in the face of low prices, is that the Permian basin should be able to increase its output from 2 million b/d to 5 million b/d in the next 10 years, assuming prices reach $56/b in 2025, Sheffield said. Pioneer itself is growing its output by 27-30% annually.
“It’s in that [price] strip that I see the Permian adding 300,000 b/d per year in US supply,” he told the Offshore Norwegian Seas conference, held Aug. 29 through Sept. 1 in Stavanger. Ramming home his contrarian stance, he said he was skeptical of some of the higher forecasts of long-term oil demand growth due to global warming, alternative energy and electric vehicles, while boasting of the company’s use of renewables in its own operations and the solar panels on his home.
In Sheffield’s view, the dip in US production has been misconstrued, with some in the industry underestimating the Permian basin as output falters in the Eagle Ford and the Bakken.
Some have failed to appreciate that rig reductions in the Permian have happened partly because of reduced drilling at conventional, non-shale sites, rather than in the shale plays, he said.
The Spraberry-Wolfcamp shale, where Pioneer operates, remains resilient and Pioneer’s own breakeven price is below $25/b.
Prices paid for shale acreage have been rising, in some cases, to levels higher than in 2013-2014, he said.And then the second half at the link.
“In the Permian we still have about 600,000 b/d of conventional production that’s declining — it’s arresting the growth. [However] there’s one field in the Midland basin, six fields in the Delaware basin that make up most of the growth in production. The Permian is still growing,” he said. With the Permian accounting for over half of US oil rigs, he forecast another 50-75 would be added.
But while the world’s oil majors were largely caught off guard by shale and have of late struggled to maintain a foothold in many parts of the world, Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden insisted on their relevance, reiterating the International Energy Agency’s central scenario for a 25% increase in energy demand by 2035 and predictions of oil demand growth of 1-1.5 million b/d for the next five years.
That, together with decline from existing fields of 5% per year, means the notion of stranded assets, by which oil and gas becomes redundant, is a “red herring,” he said. The industry is now filling the gap between demand growth and natural decline “quite comfortably, with all the investment decisions that we took four-five years ago. [But] that time will dry up,” he said. “We will see the tightness come back into the market. I’m more worried about supply shrinkage.”
NDIC's Daily Activity Reports For September, 2016, Are Not Available -- September 2, 2016
The NDIC site went down Thursday, September 1, 2016, about noon. It appears much of the site came back up Friday morning, September 2, 2016, with at least one major exception: the Daily Activity Report Index for the month of September, 2016.
The list of wells on the confidential list is up and running and one well will come off the confidential list on Saturday. That will be reported Monday.
I posted this story some weeks ago. It's now being reported by The Los Angeles Times: Cornell University welcomes 12-year-old college freshman -- the school's youngest student ever.
At the end of the Cretaceous Period, which also marked the end of the Mesozoic Era, the era of dinosaurs, this is the description of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
The western Dakotas and eastern Montana would have been a huge coastal floodplain.
To the east was a huge, huge inland waterway, the Western Interior Seaway.
To the west: flat plains that extended as far as the dinosaurs could see, and if they could see that far, to the growing Rocky Mountains.
The floodplains, topographically, might have looked a lot like Florida swamps, Louisiana deltas, Minnesota's 10,000 lakes, Dakota marshlands, and the farther west one got, the Montana prairies. The climate might have been a lot like Hawaii's climate:
The animals:
The mammals were small and would have been a nocturnal nuisance for anyone daring to sleep in a tent (again, T rex would have had a feast). The mammals would have been small rat-like creatures, probably not the cuddly looking rabbits many eventually became. Hemingway might have seen his distant ancestor, Purgatorius, the earliest example of a primate or proto-primate. It would have looked nothing like any of Hemingway's four wives, although the word "shrew" does come to mind.
Interestingly, Parker's Evolution does not discuss grasses, and the word "grass" is not in the index. So, from another site.
The Cretaceous Dakota flora would have been dominated by mosses, ferns, and conifers, although flowering plants were on the rise. I have difficulty imagining "plains" without grasses. I've been to Hawaii, but I don't recall to what extent grasses cover the islands. Looking at this site of Hawaiian fauna reveals flowering plants with only one grass; maybe this is the type of flowering plants Triceratops would have seen across the fruited plains. But without grasses, Cretaceous Montana approaching the Rocky Mountains would have looked much different than it does now.
By 95 million years ago, angiosperms (flowering plants) were out-competing the conifers and other gymnosperms in many areas and were well on their way to becoming the dominant form of plant life.
From the linked site:
The list of wells on the confidential list is up and running and one well will come off the confidential list on Saturday. That will be reported Monday.
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Why I Love To Blog
I posted this story some weeks ago. It's now being reported by The Los Angeles Times: Cornell University welcomes 12-year-old college freshman -- the school's youngest student ever.
When he was 2, Jeremy Shuler was reading books in English and Korean. At 6, he was studying calculus. Now, at an age when most kids are attending middle school, the exuberant 12-year-old is a freshman at Cornell University, the youngest the Ivy League school has on record.
"It's risky to extrapolate, but if you look at his trajectory and he stays on course, one day he'll solve some problem we haven't even conceived of," said Cornell Engineering Dean Lance Collins. "That's pretty exciting."
Jeremy is the home-schooled child of two aerospace engineers who were living in Grand Prairie, Texas, when he applied to Cornell.
While Jeremy's elite-level SAT and Advanced Placement test scores in math and science at age 10 showed he was intellectually ready for college, Collins said what sealed the deal was his parents' willingness to move to Ithaca. Jeremy's father, Andy Shuler, transferred from Lockheed Martin in Texas to its location in upstate New York.Grand Prairie sits about 30 minutes southeast of us, smack dab between Ft Worth and Dallas.
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Hell Creek Fossil Beds
Evolution
General Editor: Stever Parker
c. 2015
At the end of the Cretaceous Period, which also marked the end of the Mesozoic Era, the era of dinosaurs, this is the description of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
The western Dakotas and eastern Montana would have been a huge coastal floodplain.
To the east was a huge, huge inland waterway, the Western Interior Seaway.
To the west: flat plains that extended as far as the dinosaurs could see, and if they could see that far, to the growing Rocky Mountains.
The floodplains, topographically, might have looked a lot like Florida swamps, Louisiana deltas, Minnesota's 10,000 lakes, Dakota marshlands, and the farther west one got, the Montana prairies. The climate might have been a lot like Hawaii's climate:
- deltas
- rivers
- creeks
- lakes
- swamps
- dry bushland with clusters of small trees
- mosses
- ferns
- evergreens, including cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers
- flowering plants and trees, such as palms, magnolias, sycamores, laurels and beeches
The animals:
- T rex and Triceratops would have been the big game animals, had Hemingway been around
- he would have been bothered by insects but could have enjoyed clams with his mojio
- he would have had plenty of big game fish to bring in: sharks, paddlefish, bowfins, and sturgeons
- he would have seen frogs and salamanders in the marshes, as well as turtles, snakes, and lizards
- most interesting, perhaps, aside from T rex and Triceratops would have been the giant flying azhdarchid pterosaurs (reptiles, but not dinosaurs); on the ground these azhdarchids would have looked like giraffes, or even better, crude oil jack pumps, especially at night, in silhouette (there is some irony there)
The mammals were small and would have been a nocturnal nuisance for anyone daring to sleep in a tent (again, T rex would have had a feast). The mammals would have been small rat-like creatures, probably not the cuddly looking rabbits many eventually became. Hemingway might have seen his distant ancestor, Purgatorius, the earliest example of a primate or proto-primate. It would have looked nothing like any of Hemingway's four wives, although the word "shrew" does come to mind.
Interestingly, Parker's Evolution does not discuss grasses, and the word "grass" is not in the index. So, from another site.
The Cretaceous Dakota flora would have been dominated by mosses, ferns, and conifers, although flowering plants were on the rise. I have difficulty imagining "plains" without grasses. I've been to Hawaii, but I don't recall to what extent grasses cover the islands. Looking at this site of Hawaiian fauna reveals flowering plants with only one grass; maybe this is the type of flowering plants Triceratops would have seen across the fruited plains. But without grasses, Cretaceous Montana approaching the Rocky Mountains would have looked much different than it does now.
By 95 million years ago, angiosperms (flowering plants) were out-competing the conifers and other gymnosperms in many areas and were well on their way to becoming the dominant form of plant life.
From the linked site:
At the [time grasses began to evolve] there was a notable change in the structure of the fruit.
All the ancestors of the grasses had ovaries formed of three fused carpels, each carpel forming one locule with one ovule. In many of the close relatives, and we presume in the grass ancestors, two of those ovules abort and only one develops. In the grasses, only one locule and one ovule ever form. As the ovule develops the outer integument fuses with the inner ovary wall to form the distinctive fruit of the grasses, known as the grain or caryopsis. This structure is unique among the flowering plants.The dinosaurs never saw grass. Non-avian dinosaurs died out 65 million years ago and the earliest fossil record of grasses is between 60 and 55 million ago. Triceratops just missed grass by 5 to 10 million years.
Streamers: Ivanpah Solar Farm Fries 6,000 Birds Yearly -- LA Times -- September 2, 2016
Updates
Later, 2:53 p.m. Central Time: when you read the following article and note Ivanpah is killing 6,000 birds yearly, remember the fines levied for singular ducks allegedly killed in the Bakken when the boom was just beginning. This is from The Twin Cities Pioneer Press, November 3, 2011. The article begins:
A Texas oil company will plead guilty and pay a $1,000 fine for killing a duck during drilling operations in western North Dakota, according to an agreement filed today.Other data points from the same article:
Dallas-based Petro-Hunt LLC was charged under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act for the death of a northern shoveler found May 6 in one of the company’s waste pits. Under the third such plea agreement filed in federal court, Petro-Hunt will pay the fine to the nonprofit National Fish and Wildlife Foundation.
- 7 oil companies charged
- 28 dead birds found in uncovered waste pits in May/June, 2011
- misdemeanors; max penalty: for each count -- 6 months in prison, $15,000 fine
- Slawson: plead guilty in October, 2011: killed 12 birds, $12,000 fine
- MDU/Fidelity: $1,500 fine for a solitary sandpiper found in one of the company's waste pits
But at least we know the going price for Daffy Duck in the North Dakota oil patch is about $1,000.
Original Post
Ivanpah: another name for "bird sink."
Anyway, whatever, from The Los Angeles Times, the data points:
- streamers: the wisps of white smoke as crispy, fried birds fall to earth over Ivanpah Solar Plant
- along I-15 west of Las Vegas
- 390-MW plant owners tring to think of ways to stop the slaughter -- yes, that's the word used by The LA Times
- 6,000 birds fried or collide each each year
- three 40-story towers -- about 4x higher than an oil rig; and permanent, unlike rigs which are very temporary
"Ivanpah continues to operate as though there is an endless supply of birds to burn." -- Garry George, Audubon California.
And it's either worse than they say, or better than they say. But they have to study Ivanpah for another nine months. I guess if it's only 4,000 birds yearly, that would be better.
I track the Ivanpah links here.
Williston Has Reached Consensus On City's First Administrator; Procedures To Follow Before Announcing -- September 2, 2016
The subject line says it all.
Who do you think it will be?
Poll at sidebar at the right.
Who do you think it will be?
- David Tuan
- Troy Anderson
- Zeke Jackson
Poll at sidebar at the right.
Miscellaneous -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 2, 2016
If you only have time to read one article today, read the short first-person account: "Sully" Sullenberger's Serene Texas Home in today's WSJ
In a couple of paragraphs, Sullenberger describes the 208 seconds that followed the bird hit. This was back in January, 2009.
The last paragraph really says it all:
In a couple of paragraphs, Sullenberger describes the 208 seconds that followed the bird hit. This was back in January, 2009.
The last paragraph really says it all:
For years I tried to resist the hero label. Now, with the passage of time, I have a much fuller appreciation of what happened that day. We all were doing our jobs. We just happened to do them exceptionally well.That reminds me of my career in the US Air Force. There were so many times, and so many events, when everyone was simply doing her/his job -- and everyone just happened to do their jobs exceptionally well.
Catch And Release -- The New ObamaPolicy On Law Enforcement; If Amazon Absolutely, Positively Needs To Get It To You In Two Days -- They Buy It From Walmart; Iowans Want To Turn Down "Mailbox Money"; See Health Premiums Rise 40% -- September 2, 2016
Enbridge Puts Sandpiper Pipeline project on hold. Reported at Zacks. This pretty much only hurts blue-collar folks. Investors will benefit. Takeaway in the Bakken is more than adequate. Warren Buffett will open another bottle of champagne tonight. Enbridge to Minnesota: no mailbox money for you.
The story is reported here. By the way, John Kemp has tweeted that US refiners "went all out" this summer shifting from producing distillates like diesel to producing gasoline. Yesterday, the EIA said June, 2016, set a record for most gasoline produced in any month ever in the US. I'm not sure if that was exactly correct: it sort of depends what one is measuring, at least according to my astute readers.
National average for gasoline: around $2.25.
Compare with about $1.50 / gallon when President Obama took office in 2009.
Even the Chinese and Indians want bigger cars. Ford will curtail plans for expanding small car production in China and India. Customers there want bigger SUVs and cross-overs. Ford will move small-car production from China and India to Brazil, Thailand, and Russia.
Petrobras "sheds" almost 12,000 employees. Reported elsewhere. No links. Easy to find.
This is a huge story: the writer says that the impact on Amazon is small, but something tells me this might be a bigger story some day. I'm sure very, very smart logisticians with math degrees and ability to write code at both Amazon and Walmart are studying this issue very, very carefully. If the link is broken, google retail arbitrage.
Years ago, in high school or college, I wrote a note to myself, placed it in a sealed envelope, labeled it not to be opened until some time in the future, and then put it among my memorabilia. In that note to myself -- remember, this was as a high school or college student, decades ago -- I told myself that sometime in the future law enforcement would be nothing more than fishermen (not politically correct). The policy of law enforcement would eventually be one of "catch and release."
This was most likely high school; I did not have time for such nonsense when I was in college.
I was reminded of that by this story out of Milwaukee which recorded its worst month for homicides in 25 years.
By the way, what happened back in 1991.
From USA Today:
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Gasoline Prices Over Labor Day Weekend May Be Lowest In Twelve Years
The story is reported here. By the way, John Kemp has tweeted that US refiners "went all out" this summer shifting from producing distillates like diesel to producing gasoline. Yesterday, the EIA said June, 2016, set a record for most gasoline produced in any month ever in the US. I'm not sure if that was exactly correct: it sort of depends what one is measuring, at least according to my astute readers.
National average for gasoline: around $2.25.
Compare with about $1.50 / gallon when President Obama took office in 2009.
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What Cheap, Available Gasoline And Crude Oil Means
Even the Chinese and Indians want bigger cars. Ford will curtail plans for expanding small car production in China and India. Customers there want bigger SUVs and cross-overs. Ford will move small-car production from China and India to Brazil, Thailand, and Russia.
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Petrobras "sheds" almost 12,000 employees. Reported elsewhere. No links. Easy to find.
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Amazon, Target, And Walmart: One Big Distributor
This is a huge story: the writer says that the impact on Amazon is small, but something tells me this might be a bigger story some day. I'm sure very, very smart logisticians with math degrees and ability to write code at both Amazon and Walmart are studying this issue very, very carefully. If the link is broken, google retail arbitrage.
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Catch And Release
I'm not going to bother finding the links but it was reported that President Obama has pardoned or commuted more felons than the last 10 presidents combined.Years ago, in high school or college, I wrote a note to myself, placed it in a sealed envelope, labeled it not to be opened until some time in the future, and then put it among my memorabilia. In that note to myself -- remember, this was as a high school or college student, decades ago -- I told myself that sometime in the future law enforcement would be nothing more than fishermen (not politically correct). The policy of law enforcement would eventually be one of "catch and release."
This was most likely high school; I did not have time for such nonsense when I was in college.
I was reminded of that by this story out of Milwaukee which recorded its worst month for homicides in 25 years.
"We've had a slight increase in domestic violence homicides this year, but the biggest driver of our homicides is arguments and fights and retaliation among people with criminal records," Milwaukee Police Chief Edward Flynn said Thursday.Misguided policies have misguided consequences. Oksol's Law.
By the way, what happened back in 1991.
It is the highest monthly total since July 1991, when the victims of serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer were discovered.
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Insurance Hikes
From USA Today:
With dramatic drops in insurance company participation on the exchanges for some states, decreased competition and other factors are leading to often jarring rate hikes. Some of the states that are facing what are likely among the biggest increases this year — Tennessee, Arizona and North Carolina — were among those the Urban Institute reported in May had the biggest increases last year.
“The reality is, it’s all very justified, unfortunately,” Iowa insurance commissioner Nick Gerhart said Thursday of the premium increases he approved this week of 19% to 43% for about 70,000 Iowans who buy their own policies.
Gerhart warned consumers in a rate hearing in July that if he rejected insurers’ proposed premium increases for 2017, the carriers would likely decline to sell policies in the state. No carriers made an explicit threat to leave Iowa, but the implication was clear, he says: “It gives you less room to maneuver." Iowa law, he said, requires him to judge proposed premium increases on whether experts find them to be justified by carriers’ projected costs.
As other state insurance commissioners gradually sign off on insurers' rate requests — which should all be decided within a month — many consumers are learning what's in store for 2017.
August Jobs Report: The Goldilocks Number -- September 2, 2016
Updates
Later, 8:52 a.m. Central Time: I'm just waiting to see if BRK-B goes over $151. [Remember: this is not an investment blog.]
Later, 7:59 a.m. Central Time: this might be the "Goldilocks number." The 151,000 is "bad enough" to keep the Fed from raising rates, but good enough for folks to say this is the 71st consecutive month of job gains, and unemployment remains steady (and some would say, we are full employment, regardless). If the market has a really, really great day -- I will argue that the jobs report for August "hit" the Goldilocks number.
If it's a bad day on Wall Street, well, it must have been something else.
By the way, the July unemployment figure was revised upward. A revision of a monthly unemployment figure is said to be "very rare." Not for this administration.
Original Post
August jobs data: the spinmeisters will call this a great report. In fact, it's pretty dismal. US adds 151,000 jobs (before the Obama administration, the magic number was 200,000: adding less than 200,000 jobs in any month was a sign of economic stagnation. Sometime during the Obama administration, the major business news outlets moved the goalposts). Full employment is the headline: unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. Let's see how Yahoo!Finance spins it:
The US labor market disappointed in August.
US companies added just 151,000 payrolls during the month, missing expectations for 180,000 payrolls.
While the numbers were lighter than expected, it reflects the 71st consecutive month of job gains, which is already the longest streak on record. [MORE SPIN]
Janet Yellen? At most: "one and done" and even that "one" may be delayed.The unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in August, which was higher than the 4.8% forecast by economists. Notably, the July unemployment rate was revised up to 4.9% from an earlier estimate of 4.8%.
Even the expected 180,000 jobs would have been below the 200,000 threshold. Just saying.
How did the market react. Futures pointed to a slightly higher opening, maybe 30 points in the Dow 30, prior to the jobs report. If the market opens higher, it's because traders think the jobs report will delay "one and done"; if the market opens lower, traders are hunkering down for a two-fer: a worsening economy, and despite that, the Fed still talks about raising the rate sooner than later. (It's all relative: the Fed -- or at least the media -- has been talking about raising rates for the past five years, it seems.) Common sense would tell us that the jobs report will boost the market today.
So let's see: futures are now up almost 50 points.
NDIC Website Back Up; Daily Activity Index Still Not Available; US August Jobs Report Terribly Disappointing; That Florida "Hurricane" -- Were The Numbers Fudged? -- September 2, 2016
NDIC site back up; came back up around 7:00 a.m. Central Time.
Saudis increase their moat: adding Asia storage to maintain market share. Bloomberg. Connects with earlier story that Chinese oil production may have peaked.
Norwegian North Sea: majors leaving or cutting back; smaller operators moving in. Other data points:
Active rigs:
RBN Energy: MPLX's plan for moving northeast condensate and natural gasoline.
August jobs data: the spinmeisters will call this a great report. In fact, it's pretty dismal. US adds 151,000 jobs (before the Obama administration, the magic number was 200,000: adding less than 200,000 jobs in any month was a sign of economic stagnation. Sometime during the Obama administration, the major business news outlets moved the goalposts). Full employment is the headline: unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. Let's see how Yahoo!Finance spins it:
Even the expected 180,000 jobs would have been below the 200,000 threshold. Just saying.
How did the market react. Futures pointed to a slightly higher opening, maybe 30 points in the Dow 30, prior to the jobs report. If the market opens higher, it's because traders think the jobs report will delay "one and done"; if the market opens lower, traders are hunkering down for a two-fer: a worsening economy, and despite that, the Fed still talks about raising the rate sooner than later. (It's all relative: the Fed -- or at least the media -- has been talking about raising rates for the past five years, it seems.) Common sense would tell us that the jobs report will boost the market today. So let's see: futures are now up almost 50 points.
Closing: it looks like the Dow 30 might be able to hold unto its gains, perhaps closing up 60 points by the end of the day. Another jump in the number of issues hitting new highs; and very, very few issues hitting new lows. NYSE --
new highs: 165 -- BRK-B (a big whoop);
new lows: 9
Mid-morning market. Up about 120 points at one point, now back to 105 points. NYSE:
The Open: futures suggested a modest increase at the open, until the jobs report came out. Then futures jumped. The opening: up almost 100 points.
ISM manufacturing index contracted in August. WSJ calls this a key gauge of the sector. Readers have told me the index is overrated in the 21st economy.
Not payback, but interesting timing. Caterpillar considers closing Belgian site, laying off 2,000 workers. Isn't Belgium the HQ of the EU?
Tablets on fire: Samsung issues recall of Galaxy Note7 just weeks after release.
Costco reports disappointing expectations for 4Q16: shares down. Hanjin-related?
Most anticipated: box office results for "Hell or High Water" when it opens to wide release this weekend. It's been playing for the past week here in the Grapevine area, but I have not gone. My wife is not interested. Everything suggest that it will be the "sleeper hit of the summer."
Pipeline protests update, Dakota Access Pipeline, reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Two Colorado coal-fired power units to close as part of clean-air deal. In Wall Street Journal.
Gerald Baker's 10-point here: Trump and Mexico; the explosion on the Cape. Does the 10-Point add any value to the WSJ?
September 4, 2016: biggest "dud" of the year? of the decade? Remember: this is the first "hurricane" to his the US mainland in eleven (11) years. It made landfall just before the weekend, allowing plenty of time for networks to air the storm. But nothing. Absolutely nothing. This is a huge "dud." Barely made hurricane status -- if indeed it was even a hurricane -- yes, I know: it is devastating for those directly affected by it. I'm just amazed that so little has been said about it. It's as if it didn't happen. The first hurricane to make US landfall in eleven years.Global warming. Climate change. Extreme weather.
Later, 6:29 p.m. Central Time: maybe it's just me, but going through the major news outlets (outside of Florida) I find nothing on the Florida "hurricane" on the "front page":
Considering this was the first Atlantic hurricane to hit land in eleven (11) years, the silent reporting is deafening.
Hurricane? Something tells me the numbers were fudged. To gain hurricane status, winds must reach 75 mph (sustained? spike?). When the storm was upgraded to "hurricane," we were told that winds were "about" 80 mph. This "about" was reported by the same organization that tells us, without question, they can predict the rise in global temperature to the tenth degree one hundred years from now. The phrase "about 80 mph" has now become the meme for this particular storm: everywhere it's being reported that the winds were 80 mph for this "hurricane." Whatever.
Saudis increase their moat: adding Asia storage to maintain market share. Bloomberg. Connects with earlier story that Chinese oil production may have peaked.
Norwegian North Sea: majors leaving or cutting back; smaller operators moving in. Other data points:
- Norway's crude oil production has dropped by half since 2000 (the Bakken Boom began in 2000)
- Statoil operates about 70% of Norway's petroleum output
- newest operator hopes to increase boepd production by 250,000 by 2023
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Active rigs:
| 9/2/2016 | 09/02/2015 | 09/02/2014 | 09/02/2013 | 09/02/2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 33 | 75 | 194 | 185 | 192 |
RBN Energy: MPLX's plan for moving northeast condensate and natural gasoline.
MPLX LP and the midstream limited partnership’s subsidiaries (collectively referred to as “MPLX”) are stepping up to address a lingering hydrocarbon-delivery issue in the Utica and “wet” Marcellus plays, namely, how to more efficiently transport the field condensate and natural gasoline produced there to refineries, Western Canadian heavy-crude shippers and other end-users. Currently, condensate and natural gasoline are moved within and out of production areas in eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and western Pennsylvania via truck, rail or barge. MPLX’s three-part, $500-million plan, the first elements of which are nearing completion, is mostly about pipelines—a mix of new ones and creatively repurposed existing ones. It looks like a win-win for condensate and natural gasoline producers and buyers. Today we begin a series on improving the flow of these two close relatives in the hydrocarbon family to buyers in the Midwest and beyond.
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Job Watch
August jobs data: the spinmeisters will call this a great report. In fact, it's pretty dismal. US adds 151,000 jobs (before the Obama administration, the magic number was 200,000: adding less than 200,000 jobs in any month was a sign of economic stagnation. Sometime during the Obama administration, the major business news outlets moved the goalposts). Full employment is the headline: unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. Let's see how Yahoo!Finance spins it:
The US labor market disappointed in August.
US companies added just 151,000 payrolls during the month, missing expectations for 180,000 payrolls.
While the numbers were lighter than expected, it reflects the 71st consecutive month of job gains, which is already the longest streak on record. [MORE SPIN]
Janet Yellen? At most: "one and done" and even that "one" may be delayed.The unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in August, which was higher than the 4.8% forecast by economists. Notably, the July unemployment rate was revised up to 4.9% from an earlier estimate of 4.8%.
Even the expected 180,000 jobs would have been below the 200,000 threshold. Just saying.
How did the market react. Futures pointed to a slightly higher opening, maybe 30 points in the Dow 30, prior to the jobs report. If the market opens higher, it's because traders think the jobs report will delay "one and done"; if the market opens lower, traders are hunkering down for a two-fer: a worsening economy, and despite that, the Fed still talks about raising the rate sooner than later. (It's all relative: the Fed -- or at least the media -- has been talking about raising rates for the past five years, it seems.) Common sense would tell us that the jobs report will boost the market today. So let's see: futures are now up almost 50 points.
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The Market
Closing: it looks like the Dow 30 might be able to hold unto its gains, perhaps closing up 60 points by the end of the day. Another jump in the number of issues hitting new highs; and very, very few issues hitting new lows. NYSE --
- new highs: 185
- new lows: 10
new highs: 165 -- BRK-B (a big whoop);
new lows: 9
Mid-morning market. Up about 120 points at one point, now back to 105 points. NYSE:
- new highs: 99 -- WPX Energy;
- new lows: 6
The Open: futures suggested a modest increase at the open, until the jobs report came out. Then futures jumped. The opening: up almost 100 points.
ISM manufacturing index contracted in August. WSJ calls this a key gauge of the sector. Readers have told me the index is overrated in the 21st economy.
Not payback, but interesting timing. Caterpillar considers closing Belgian site, laying off 2,000 workers. Isn't Belgium the HQ of the EU?
Tablets on fire: Samsung issues recall of Galaxy Note7 just weeks after release.
Costco reports disappointing expectations for 4Q16: shares down. Hanjin-related?
Most anticipated: box office results for "Hell or High Water" when it opens to wide release this weekend. It's been playing for the past week here in the Grapevine area, but I have not gone. My wife is not interested. Everything suggest that it will be the "sleeper hit of the summer."
Pipeline protests update, Dakota Access Pipeline, reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Two Colorado coal-fired power units to close as part of clean-air deal. In Wall Street Journal.
Gerald Baker's 10-point here: Trump and Mexico; the explosion on the Cape. Does the 10-Point add any value to the WSJ?
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Hurricane Update
Updates
September 4, 2016: biggest "dud" of the year? of the decade? Remember: this is the first "hurricane" to his the US mainland in eleven (11) years. It made landfall just before the weekend, allowing plenty of time for networks to air the storm. But nothing. Absolutely nothing. This is a huge "dud." Barely made hurricane status -- if indeed it was even a hurricane -- yes, I know: it is devastating for those directly affected by it. I'm just amazed that so little has been said about it. It's as if it didn't happen. The first hurricane to make US landfall in eleven years.
Later, 6:29 p.m. Central Time: maybe it's just me, but going through the major news outlets (outside of Florida) I find nothing on the Florida "hurricane" on the "front page":
- WSJ: nothing on front page
- NYT: small little story in middle of front page; hard to find
- LAT: nothing (not unexpected)
As a Category 1 hurricane hit “Hermione” shortly before 2 am (local time) on Friday with gusts up to 130 kilometers per hour in St. Marks near Tallahassee on land.The Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale is based on "sustained" winds. Category 1 is defined as sustained winds at 74 - 95 mph.
Considering this was the first Atlantic hurricane to hit land in eleven (11) years, the silent reporting is deafening.
Original Post
Hurricane? Something tells me the numbers were fudged. To gain hurricane status, winds must reach 75 mph (sustained? spike?). When the storm was upgraded to "hurricane," we were told that winds were "about" 80 mph. This "about" was reported by the same organization that tells us, without question, they can predict the rise in global temperature to the tenth degree one hundred years from now. The phrase "about 80 mph" has now become the meme for this particular storm: everywhere it's being reported that the winds were 80 mph for this "hurricane." Whatever.
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