Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Snowfall In Black Hills, SD, Past Twenty-Four Hours -- October 13, 2021

Update: totals here.

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Updating Three Interesting Slawson Wells In Big Bend -- October 13, 2021

Updating these wells, #35898, #35897, and #35896. 

Two of the three wells have dual parallel laterals, drilled about a year apart from each other;

These wells, on a three-well pad, are interesting in their own right and will be updated elsewhere.

  • 35898, Slawson, Slasher Federal 4-27-22MLH, Big Bend, two laterals, cum 232K 8/21; 
    • 11/19; IP: 752; 
    • 12/20; IP: 760;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021311852519058311201180727198934
BAKKEN7-2021311991019747381281270936298925
BAKKEN6-2021292029620039511141294833689436
BAKKEN5-2021135421512832022341810872268
BAKKEN4-202125108991124227537692329643833
BAKKEN3-202128125691305643488835450923122
BAKKEN2-2021187357720324657521730472082
BAKKEN1-2021135456508315437382637630
BAKKEN12-20201586448396101085938576794
BAKKEN11-2020149038330241
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-202087392769211308539241631188
BAKKEN7-2020312711027507446922022119684384
BAKKEN6-20202168285914191000632358
BAKKEN5-202021090231024646
BAKKEN4-20201196082032270
BAKKEN3-2020171451814178166081158786742830
BAKKEN2-20202919589202053726715635307812412
BAKKEN1-20203126686269963959623395182172153
BAKKEN12-2019261903118245386791469687873731
BAKKEN11-201914700564371113157705784368
  • 35897, 2,116, Slawson, Slasher Federal 5-27-22TFH, one lateral, t12/19; cum 145K 8/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021311594416587363051367160967420
BAKKEN7-2021311957319350444301691568379924
BAKKEN6-20213018901184155888416280325012882
BAKKEN5-2021463162271082060
BAKKEN4-2021251275112732267321091053855399
BAKKEN3-202193001375710951307413371692
BAKKEN2-202121061003890379
BAKKEN1-202110053500
BAKKEN12-20201135167131133968
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20201200500
BAKKEN6-2020119318550718215425
BAKKEN5-2020282023773730
BAKKEN4-20201613400773834
BAKKEN3-2020130859857032027939
BAKKEN2-20202922921234581764920182172632774
BAKKEN1-2020312808528212306522467620650852
BAKKEN12-20192521931205681206919309111595663
  • 35896, Slawson, Slasher Federal 3-27-22MLH, Big Bend, cum 232K 8/21t12/20; IP 868, cum see above, two laterals:
    • t11/19: IP: 1,181,
    • t12/20: IP: 868, 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021312422224758363051420957658289
BAKKEN7-2021312759227442441831623767109373
BAKKEN6-20213030197300575626917773487712747
BAKKEN5-2021918451418156151123515561
BAKKEN4-2021261206412328267327890771248
BAKKEN3-2021281736018180373031102796631224
BAKKEN2-2021201863618156430181169742067392
BAKKEN1-202112102049777228286676659423
BAKKEN12-202033039276940181896185229
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-2020217012081100512431097136
BAKKEN7-20203123056228491117417688158811653
BAKKEN6-2020133001451497273
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020171670500
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20205301837187046305714351597
BAKKEN1-20203123333236805747423355798412706
BAKKEN12-20192624878241985214125059646815780
BAKKEN11-20191310393971274971050210408277
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Updating Several Slawson Wells In Big Bend -- October 13, 2021

In the process of updating the two wells below, I ran across these wells, #35898, #35897, and #35896. Those wells on a three-well pad, are interesting in their own right and will be updated elsewhere.

Previous note:

  • December 16, 2019: #18407, #19404; minimal production, 11/19; see this post; see production over seven days, 6,471 bbls, 12/19;

Let's update these two wells:

  • 18407, 1,012, Slawson, ripper 1022H, Van Hook, t2/10; cum 276K 8/21:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202131278424675120313916461338
BAKKEN7-202131270028805767305816361267
BAKKEN6-202130276926887868321913591710
BAKKEN5-202118845462578695948822
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20191270030022
BAKKEN10-2019122435500
BAKKEN9-201929140314288082530217462
BAKKEN8-2019311681137010762148174072
BAKKEN7-201912610939400119110617
BAKKEN6-2019301579168282421431372451
BAKKEN5-2019311461131568917041083309
BAKKEN4-20191442836837250630486
BAKKEN3-20193170563240293668423
  • 19404, 1,388, Slawson, Jackknife Federal 1-27H, Van Hook, t3/11; cum 355K 9/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2021293420356942292383220632
BAKKEN7-2021313467330751812420219570
BAKKEN6-2021242586261256851294498676
BAKKEN5-2021218906677735448183161
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20201000110
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20201000500
BAKKEN4-202015169022017
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20201460020010
BAKKEN12-2019764716220939028681268876
BAKKEN11-2019154705429135
BAKKEN10-2019004320000
BAKKEN9-20192923332493774178313900
BAKKEN8-201921315125509812314184922
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CLR With Two New Permits -- A Whitman FIU (Oakdale) And Bang (Cedar Coulee) -- October 13, 2021

ISO NE: link here.

  • beautiful, balmy day in early autumn
  • electricity spikes to $110 / MWh
  • currently, mid-afternoon, $70 / MWh
  • could be, should be <$15 / MWH

ISO NE, later, late afternoon -- but before the dinner hour -- electricity spikes to $80 / MWh;

  • natural gas: meeting 77% of demand;
  • nuclear: meeting 10% of demand;
  • renewable energy meeting only 5% of demand;
  • expensive Canadian hydroelectricity is now covering demand; meeting 8% of demand;

Buy now, pay later: for those who have forgotten --

Afterpay is best known for its "pay later" service that allows in-store and online customers to purchase a product immediately and pay for it later with four equal repayments. The repayments are interest-free, but if they are not paid every two weeks as required, late fees are accrued.

Firestone has provided this service for years (decades?). Firestone "credit card" new expenses are interest free for six months but start accruing interest responsibilities after that. But doing this across the board, like Afterpay, is pretty clever. 

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$80.46
10/13/202110/13/202010/13/201910/13/201810/13/2017
Active Rigs2914586759

Four new permits, #38613 -- #38616, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (2); Hunt (2);
  • Fields: Oakdale (Dunn); Cedar Coulee (Dunn); Werner (Dunn)
  • Comments:

One permit canceled:

  • 29794, Halliday 146-93-25-36H-3, Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed today:

  • 37031, 464, Whiting, KR STate 13-16TFHU, Mountrail County
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Flaring Solutions In The Bakken -- October 13, 2021

Flaring solutions in the Bakken, catalysts:

  • ESG;
  • ND state's tax credit to encourage less flaring.

Link to The Williston Herald. Archived.

****************************
We're Being Played

Link here.

Anybody who believes that the Biden administration is truly concerned about high gasoline prices is being played. 

One doesn't need internal polling to show Americans are deeply concerned about price of gasoline and inflation.

"Let's go Brandon."

Right now, if Americans are placing the blame on anyone, it's Resident Biden -- based on his low polling. Right, wrong, or indifferent the Biden administration knows they need to get that monkey off their collective back and onto someone's else back.

Trump is out of the picture (sort of) so the administration needs to look for another scapegoat. 

Headline: President Bidens asks Big Oil for help. 

Translation: if prices don't drop, blame Big Oil.

From the link above:

If "I" were Big Oil, my opening gambit:

  • "Mr President, is the Keystone XL back on the table?"
Posted by at 6 comments:
Labels:

The Global Energy Crisis -- 2021

Updates

October 14, 2021: India's coal crisis worsens as top coal miner halts supply to industrial users. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

Updates Without Blog Links

October 18, 2021: early freeze across China adds to the nation's energy crisis. Link here.

Original Post

First of all, the "global energy crisis" is not global. It is a crisis for the UK, Europe, and Asia. There is no energy crisis in the US and there will not be.

The cause of the 2021 UK, European, Asian energy crisis all leads back to coal. 

That's it.

 Once one accepts that, everything else fits.

This has been added as a "big story" at The Big Stories linked at the sidebar at the right.

Commentary, October 13, 2021

  • The energy crisis of 2021 defined by:
    • soaring natural gas prices in Asia, UK, and Europe
      • failure of energy providers across the UK
      • brownouts and blackouts in China
      • concern there will be "enough" natural gas in those regions to get through the 2021 - 2022 winter

The perception by some:

  • this global energy crisis literally happened overnight
  • started sometime in the summer of 2021, reaching a fever pitch in the autumn of 2021,
  • anxiety for winter, 2021, increasing
  • the crisis is the production of electricity, not transportation fuel
  • in other words, "keeping the lights on" and/or "the risk of folks literally freezing to death this winter in these regions due to lack of energy" is the crisis I'm referring to

The question is:

  • what precipitated the crisis?
    • I am not looking for a long narrative
    • I am looking for a 30-second elevator speech with one or two graphs

The 30-second elevator speech, in one word:

  • coal

But, what precipitated inadequate coal?

Background:

  • Americans are American-centric; they look at the US, not looking at the global picture;
  • worldwide, the number one source for electricity is coal;
  • pre-Fukushima:
    • plan A: phase out coal; backstop with nuclear energy; no plan B
  • post-Fukushima:
    • coal had been phased out in Europe and the UK
    • India: I don't have the data; hunch: India had not Plan B if a shortage of coal developed; basically a coal-based energy economy
    • China: wanted to phase out coal due to air pollution; gained global respect by saying it would cut coal use to meet CO2 emissions standards; the latter was an absolute lie;
    • US: well down the road to phasing out coal
  • 2011 - 2016: both the US and Australia start cutting coal exports;
  • natural gas was the transition source of energy; glut of natural gas reassured folks things would work out
  • 2016 - 2020: with energy demands increasing again, both Australia and the US responded with increased coal exports
  • US gradually shut down "all" coal exports -- when did this happen? why?
    • US was likely the swing producer for global coal; when environmentalists shut down coal (Hillary campaign), Australia had the reserves but not not the infrastructure to make up the difference
  • during this period,
    • India's demand for coal did not decrease
    • China was building hundreds or more coal producing plants 
    • nuclear was long "dead" as Plan B
  • bottom line: pre-Covid, increasing global coal demand not noted by western economies
  • 2020: the year of the plague; global economy slowed appreciably; coal supply / demand in balance, but precarious
  • 2021: coming out of pandemic, global energy needs accelerated; not an issue for North America for myriad reasons
  • India/China: of the two, China was the problem; economy accelerated; with coal becoming an issue (US exports, Australian exports; political spat between China and Australia), and natural gas seemingly plentiful and relatively cheap, China maxed its coal consumption but made up shortfalls with natural gas
  • the global deficit in coal which began in 2011 - 2016, accelerated in 2016 - 2020; the Covid-19 lock down slowed things down for awhile
  • when the economy opened up, there simply was not enough coal

Energy crisis of 2021:

  • precipitated by, or set in motion, by the 2016 US presidential campaign which ended the US coal industry.

Pushback: the pushback I will get on this -- "well this is obvious. There's nothing new here. Everyone knows it goes back to coal (and nuclear energy." My response: if it's so obvious: why did it happen? Okay, better, if it's so obvious why are there so few articles being written about this -- the "coal angle"?

Graphics:

In the first graphic, note the "area under the curve." Huge coal export deficit had developed by 2016.

*******************************

Wind: "wind is not blowing" is a bunch of malarkey. A study shows that the impact of lack of wind on gas deficit has been limited. Large nuclear and coal closures have rather made the European system far less flexible, limiting its ability to switch away from gas, when needed or to allow for gas markets rebalancing. -- October 13, 1:19 p.m. CT, link here. 

UK: two more supplier collapse. Link here. And here. BP-backed Pure Planet and specialist Colorado Energy brings total of failures to twelve since August, 2021. And here. How's that renewable energy working out for BP. From July 13, 2021:

BP bets the farm on renewable energy and EV charging. Link here. 

Now, from the linked article today;

Pure Planet, which was 24 per cent owned by BP, supplied gas and electricity to around 235,000 customers, while Colorado Energy had an estimated 15,000 customers. 
Pure Planet blamed record wholesale prices and the UK’s energy price cap for its collapse. 

India: link here --

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Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- The XLNX Edition -- October 13, 2021

XLNX: hits a 52-week high. No news being reported.

AMD: well below its 52-week high. 

*************************
The Covid Generation

This is a classic. 

Our younger daughter has twin boys, born just as the lock downs in the US began back in February / March, 2020, time frame. When our daughter was brought to the hospital, other than her husband, no extended family members and no other visitors were allowed to visit her.

The boys have pretty much lived in a "bubble" for the first eighteen months of their lives. Until very recently, they had seen no one outside their own mom and dad without a mask. They see their parents and masked visitors performing a "hand-rubbing" ritual multiple times during the day. 

Recently, on occasional outings to grocery stores, the boys have seen a new ritual.

About a month ago, their dad bought identical play tool kits, one each for each of the boys. The center piece, of course, was the toy drill press. 

Again, these boys have seen nothing in their entire life that is not centered around being protected from Covid-19.

Look how the boys use that drill press.

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Director's Cut Posted -- August, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Comments: it should be noted that in --

  • June, 2021, there were 2,519 wells off line for operational reasons;
  • July, 2021, there were 2,603 wells off line for operational reasons
  • August, 2021 (most recent month for which there is preliminary data) 2,193 wells were off line for operational reasons
  • change, most recent m/m: +410 wells
  • delta: +15.8%
  • analysis: YouTube from a month ago (July, 2021)
  • no typo: number of DUCs, July/August, no change at 521; this number may be revised;
  • number of producing wells;
  • August, 2021: 16,953 (preliminary)
  • July, 2021: 16,890
  • change m/m = 0.37%
  • so, number of producing wells barely changes (up 0.4%); number of DUCs remain unchanged; but a net 410 wells were brought back on line and/or completed.
Crude oil production:
  • August, 2021: 1,107,216 bopd (preliminary)
  • July, 2021: 1,076,594 bopd (revised)
  • June, 2021: 1,133,498 bopd
  • delta, bopd: +30,622 bopd
  • delta, percent: +2.8%
  • revenue forecast: 1.2 million --> 1.1 million --> 1.0 million bopd

Crude price:

  • today: $64.80
  • August: $60.94
  • July, 2021: $64.80
  • June, 2021: $63.62
  • revenue forecast: $50

Natural gas production:

  • August, 2021: 2,960,457 mcf/day; +2.85; 90% capture rate (preliminary)
  • July, 2021: 2,879,408 mcf/day; capture, 90% (revised)
  • June, 2021: 2,987,829 mcf/day; capture, 92%

Rig count:

  • today: 30 (includes one SWD rig)
  • August, 2021: 28(included two SWD rigs))
  • July, 2021: 23 (ditto)
  • June, 2021: 20 (maybe one SWD rig)

Wells:

  • September, 2021
    • permitted: 69
    • completed: 34 (preliminary)
    • inactive: --
    • DUCS: --
  • August, 2021:
    • permitted: 79 (final)
    • completed: 47 (revised)
    • inactive:1,672
    • DUCs: 521
    • producing: 16,953 (preliminary)
  • July, 2021:
    • permitted: 40
    • completed: 53 (final)
    • inactive: 2,082
    • DUCs: 521
    • producing: 16,890
  • June, 2021:
    • permitted: 75
    • completed: 41 (final)
    • inactive: 1,839
    • DUCs: 680
    • producing: 16,844 (all-time high)
DUCs and inactive wells are tracked here.
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