Snowfall In Black Hills, SD, Past Twenty-Four Hours -- October 13, 2021

Update: totals here.

Updating Three Interesting Slawson Wells In Big Bend -- October 13, 2021

Updating these wells, #35898, #35897, and #35896. 

Two of the three wells have dual parallel laterals, drilled about a year apart from each other;

These wells, on a three-well pad, are interesting in their own right and will be updated elsewhere.

• 35898, Slawson, Slasher Federal 4-27-22MLH, Big Bend, two laterals, cum 232K 8/21; 
• 11/19; IP: 752; 
• 12/20; IP: 760;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	18525	19058	31120	11807	2719	8934
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	19910	19747	38128	12709	3629	8925
BAKKEN	6-2021	29	20296	20039	51114	12948	3368	9436
BAKKEN	5-2021	13	5421	5128	32022	3418	1087	2268
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	10899	11242	27537	6923	2964	3833
BAKKEN	3-2021	28	12569	13056	43488	8354	5092	3122
BAKKEN	2-2021	18	7357	7203	24657	5217	3047	2082
BAKKEN	1-2021	13	5456	5083	15437	3826	3763	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	15	8644	8396	10108	5938	5767	94
BAKKEN	11-2020	1	49	0	383	30	24	1
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	8	7392	7692	11308	5392	4163	1188
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	27110	27507	44692	20221	19684	384
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	1682	859	1419	1000	632	358
BAKKEN	5-2020	2	109	0	23	102	46	46
BAKKEN	4-2020	1	19	608	20	32	27	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	17	14518	14178	16608	11587	8674	2830
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	19589	20205	37267	15635	3078	12412
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	26686	26996	39596	23395	18217	2153
BAKKEN	12-2019	26	19031	18245	38679	14696	8787	3731
BAKKEN	11-2019	14	7005	6437	11131	5770	578	4368

• 35897, 2,116, Slawson, Slasher Federal 5-27-22TFH, one lateral, t12/19; cum 145K 8/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	15944	16587	36305	13671	6096	7420
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	19573	19350	44430	16915	6837	9924
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	18901	18415	58884	16280	3250	12882
BAKKEN	5-2021	4	63	162	2710	82	0	60
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	12751	12732	26732	10910	5385	5399
BAKKEN	3-2021	9	3001	3757	10951	3074	1337	1692
BAKKEN	2-2021	2	1061	0	0	389	0	379
BAKKEN	1-2021	1	0	0	53	5	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	1	135	167	13	113	39	68
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	2	0	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	193	185	507	182	154	25
BAKKEN	5-2020	2	82	0	23	77	37	30
BAKKEN	4-2020	1	61	340	0	77	38	34
BAKKEN	3-2020	1	308	598	570	320	279	39
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	22921	23458	17649	20182	17263	2774
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	28085	28212	30652	24676	20650	852
BAKKEN	12-2019	25	21931	20568	12069	19309	11159	5663

• 35896, Slawson, Slasher Federal 3-27-22MLH, Big Bend, cum 232K 8/21t12/20; IP 868, cum see above, two laterals:
  
• t11/19: IP: 1,181,
• t12/20: IP: 868, 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	24222	24758	36305	14209	5765	8289
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	27592	27442	44183	16237	6710	9373
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	30197	30057	56269	17773	4877	12747
BAKKEN	5-2021	9	1845	1418	15615	1123	515	561
BAKKEN	4-2021	26	12064	12328	26732	7890	7712	48
BAKKEN	3-2021	28	17360	18180	37303	11027	9663	1224
BAKKEN	2-2021	20	18636	18156	43018	11697	4206	7392
BAKKEN	1-2021	12	10204	9777	22828	6676	6594	23
BAKKEN	12-2020	3	3039	2769	4018	1896	1852	29
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	1701	2081	1005	1243	1097	136
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	23056	22849	11174	17688	15881	1653
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	330	0	145	149	72	73
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	1	7	167	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	5	3018	3718	7046	3057	1435	1597
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	23333	23680	57474	23355	7984	12706
BAKKEN	12-2019	26	24878	24198	52141	25059	6468	15780
BAKKEN	11-2019	13	10393	9712	7497	10502	1040	8277

Updating Several Slawson Wells In Big Bend -- October 13, 2021

In the process of updating the two wells below, I ran across these wells, #35898, #35897, and #35896. Those wells on a three-well pad, are interesting in their own right and will be updated elsewhere.

Previous note:

• December 16, 2019: #18407, #19404; minimal production, 11/19; see this post; see production over seven days, 6,471 bbls, 12/19;

Let's update these two wells:

• 18407, 1,012, Slawson, ripper 1022H, Van Hook, t2/10; cum 276K 8/21:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2784	2467	5120	3139	1646	1338
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2700	2880	5767	3058	1636	1267
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	2769	2688	7868	3219	1359	1710
BAKKEN	5-2021	18	845	462	5786	959	48	822
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	27	0	0	30	0	22
BAKKEN	10-2019	1	2	243	5	5	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	29	1403	1428	808	2530	2174	62
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1681	1370	1076	2148	1740	72
BAKKEN	7-2019	12	610	939	400	1191	1061	7
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	1579	1682	824	2143	1372	451
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1461	1315	689	1704	1083	309
BAKKEN	4-2019	14	428	368	372	506	304	86
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	705	632	402	936	684	23

• 19404, 1,388, Slawson, Jackknife Federal 1-27H, Van Hook, t3/11; cum 355K 9/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2021	29	3420	3569	4229	2383	2206	32
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	3467	3307	5181	2420	2195	70
BAKKEN	6-2021	24	2586	2612	5685	1294	498	676
BAKKEN	5-2021	21	890	667	7735	448	183	161
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	1	0	0	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	1	51	69	0	22	0	17
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	1	46	0	0	20	0	10
BAKKEN	12-2019	7	6471	6220	9390	2868	1268	876
BAKKEN	11-2019	1	54	70	54	29	13	5
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	432	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	29	2333	2493	774	1783	1390	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	21	3151	2550	981	2314	1849	22

CLR With Two New Permits -- A Whitman FIU (Oakdale) And Bang (Cedar Coulee) -- October 13, 2021

ISO NE: link here.

• beautiful, balmy day in early autumn
• electricity spikes to $110 / MWh
• currently, mid-afternoon, $70 / MWh
• could be, should be <$15 / MWH

ISO NE, later, late afternoon -- but before the dinner hour -- electricity spikes to $80 / MWh;

• natural gas: meeting 77% of demand;
• nuclear: meeting 10% of demand;
• renewable energy meeting only 5% of demand;
• expensive Canadian hydroelectricity is now covering demand; meeting 8% of demand;

Buy now, pay later: for those who have forgotten --

Afterpay is best known for its "pay later" service that allows in-store and online customers to purchase a product immediately and pay for it later with four equal repayments. The repayments are interest-free, but if they are not paid every two weeks as required, late fees are accrued.

Firestone has provided this service for years (decades?). Firestone "credit card" new expenses are interest free for six months but start accruing interest responsibilities after that. But doing this across the board, like Afterpay, is pretty clever. 

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$80.46	10/13/2021	10/13/2020	10/13/2019	10/13/2018	10/13/2017
Active Rigs	29	14	58	67	59

Four new permits, #38613 -- #38616, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (2); Hunt (2);
• Fields: Oakdale (Dunn); Cedar Coulee (Dunn); Werner (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Hunt has permits for two Halliday wells in NWNW 25-146-92, Werner oil field; the wells will be sited at 275 FNL and 690 FWL; and, 275 FNL and 720 FWL;
• the Hunt Halliday wells are tracked here;
  
• CLR has permits for a new Whitman FIU well and a Bang well; the Whitman FIU well will be sited in NWNW 34-147-96, Oakdale oil field, 543 FNL and 391 FWL; the Bang well will be sited in SESE 4-146-96, Cedar Coulee, 551 FSL and 472 FEL
• the CLR Bang wells are tracked here; 
• the CLR Whitman wells are tracked here;
  

One permit canceled:

• 29794, Halliday 146-93-25-36H-3, Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed today:

• 37031, 464, Whiting, KR STate 13-16TFHU, Mountrail County

Flaring Solutions In The Bakken -- October 13, 2021

Flaring solutions in the Bakken, catalysts:

• ESG;
• ND state's tax credit to encourage less flaring.

Link to The Williston Herald. Archived.

****************************
We're Being Played

Link here.

Anybody who believes that the Biden administration is truly concerned about high gasoline prices is being played. 

One doesn't need internal polling to show Americans are deeply concerned about price of gasoline and inflation.

"Let's go Brandon."

Right now, if Americans are placing the blame on anyone, it's Resident Biden -- based on his low polling. Right, wrong, or indifferent the Biden administration knows they need to get that monkey off their collective back and onto someone's else back.

Trump is out of the picture (sort of) so the administration needs to look for another scapegoat. 

Headline: President Bidens asks Big Oil for help. 

Translation: if prices don't drop, blame Big Oil.

From the link above:

If "I" were Big Oil, my opening gambit:

• "Mr President, is the Keystone XL back on the table?"

The Global Energy Crisis -- 2021

Updates

October 14, 2021: India's coal crisis worsens as top coal miner halts supply to industrial users. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

Updates Without Blog Links

October 18, 2021: early freeze across China adds to the nation's energy crisis. Link here.

Original Post

First of all, the "global energy crisis" is not global. It is a crisis for the UK, Europe, and Asia. There is no energy crisis in the US and there will not be.

The cause of the 2021 UK, European, Asian energy crisis all leads back to coal. 

That's it.

 Once one accepts that, everything else fits.

This has been added as a "big story" at The Big Stories linked at the sidebar at the right.

Commentary, October 13, 2021

• The energy crisis of 2021 defined by:
  

• soaring natural gas prices in Asia, UK, and Europe
• failure of energy providers across the UK
• brownouts and blackouts in China
  
• concern there will be "enough" natural gas in those regions to get through the 2021 - 2022 winter

The perception by some:

• this global energy crisis literally happened overnight
• started sometime in the summer of 2021, reaching a fever pitch in the autumn of 2021,
• anxiety for winter, 2021, increasing
• the crisis is the production of electricity, not transportation fuel
• in other words, "keeping the lights on" and/or "the risk of folks literally freezing to death this winter in these regions due to lack of energy" is the crisis I'm referring to
  

The question is:

• what precipitated the crisis?
• I am not looking for a long narrative
• I am looking for a 30-second elevator speech with one or two graphs

The 30-second elevator speech, in one word:

• coal

But, what precipitated inadequate coal?

Background:

• Americans are American-centric; they look at the US, not looking at the global picture;
• worldwide, the number one source for electricity is coal;
• pre-Fukushima:
• plan A: phase out coal; backstop with nuclear energy; no plan B
• post-Fukushima:
• coal had been phased out in Europe and the UK
• India: I don't have the data; hunch: India had not Plan B if a shortage of coal developed; basically a coal-based energy economy
• China: wanted to phase out coal due to air pollution; gained global respect by saying it would cut coal use to meet CO2 emissions standards; the latter was an absolute lie;
• US: well down the road to phasing out coal
• 2011 - 2016: both the US and Australia start cutting coal exports;
• natural gas was the transition source of energy; glut of natural gas reassured folks things would work out
• 2016 - 2020: with energy demands increasing again, both Australia and the US responded with increased coal exports
• US gradually shut down "all" coal exports -- when did this happen? why?
  
• US was likely the swing producer for global coal; when environmentalists shut down coal (Hillary campaign), Australia had the reserves but not not the infrastructure to make up the difference
• during this period,
• India's demand for coal did not decrease
• China was building hundreds or more coal producing plants 
• nuclear was long "dead" as Plan B
  
• bottom line: pre-Covid, increasing global coal demand not noted by western economies
• 2020: the year of the plague; global economy slowed appreciably; coal supply / demand in balance, but precarious
• 2021: coming out of pandemic, global energy needs accelerated; not an issue for North America for myriad reasons
• India/China: of the two, China was the problem; economy accelerated; with coal becoming an issue (US exports, Australian exports; political spat between China and Australia), and natural gas seemingly plentiful and relatively cheap, China maxed its coal consumption but made up shortfalls with natural gas
• the global deficit in coal which began in 2011 - 2016, accelerated in 2016 - 2020; the Covid-19 lock down slowed things down for awhile
• when the economy opened up, there simply was not enough coal

Energy crisis of 2021:

• precipitated by, or set in motion, by the 2016 US presidential campaign which ended the US coal industry.

Pushback: the pushback I will get on this -- "well this is obvious. There's nothing new here. Everyone knows it goes back to coal (and nuclear energy." My response: if it's so obvious: why did it happen? Okay, better, if it's so obvious why are there so few articles being written about this -- the "coal angle"?

Graphics:

In the first graphic, note the "area under the curve." Huge coal export deficit had developed by 2016.

*******************************

Wind: "wind is not blowing" is a bunch of malarkey. A study shows that the impact of lack of wind on gas deficit has been limited. Large nuclear and coal closures have rather made the European system far less flexible, limiting its ability to switch away from gas, when needed or to allow for gas markets rebalancing. -- October 13, 1:19 p.m. CT, link here. 

UK: two more supplier collapse. Link here. And here. BP-backed Pure Planet and specialist Colorado Energy brings total of failures to twelve since August, 2021. And here. How's that renewable energy working out for BP. From July 13, 2021:

BP bets the farm on renewable energy and EV charging. Link here. 

Now, from the linked article today;

Pure Planet, which was 24 per cent owned by BP, supplied gas and electricity to around 235,000 customers, while Colorado Energy had an estimated 15,000 customers. 

Pure Planet blamed record wholesale prices and the UK’s energy price cap for its collapse. 

India: link here --

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- The XLNX Edition -- October 13, 2021

XLNX: hits a 52-week high. No news being reported.

AMD: well below its 52-week high. 

*************************
The Covid Generation

This is a classic. 

Our younger daughter has twin boys, born just as the lock downs in the US began back in February / March, 2020, time frame. When our daughter was brought to the hospital, other than her husband, no extended family members and no other visitors were allowed to visit her.

The boys have pretty much lived in a "bubble" for the first eighteen months of their lives. Until very recently, they had seen no one outside their own mom and dad without a mask. They see their parents and masked visitors performing a "hand-rubbing" ritual multiple times during the day. 

Recently, on occasional outings to grocery stores, the boys have seen a new ritual.

About a month ago, their dad bought identical play tool kits, one each for each of the boys. The center piece, of course, was the toy drill press. 

Again, these boys have seen nothing in their entire life that is not centered around being protected from Covid-19.

Look how the boys use that drill press.

Director's Cut Posted -- August, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.

Comments: it should be noted that in --

• June, 2021, there were 2,519 wells off line for operational reasons;
• July, 2021, there were 2,603 wells off line for operational reasons
• August, 2021 (most recent month for which there is preliminary data) 2,193 wells were off line for operational reasons
  
• change, most recent m/m: +410 wells
• delta: +15.8%
• analysis: YouTube from a month ago (July, 2021)
• no typo: number of DUCs, July/August, no change at 521; this number may be revised;
• number of producing wells;
• August, 2021: 16,953 (preliminary)
  
• July, 2021: 16,890
• change m/m = 0.37%
• so, number of producing wells barely changes (up 0.4%); number of DUCs remain unchanged; but a net 410 wells were brought back on line and/or completed.
  

Crude oil production:

• August, 2021: 1,107,216 bopd (preliminary)
  
• July, 2021: 1,076,594 bopd (revised)
  
• June, 2021: 1,133,498 bopd
• delta, bopd: +30,622 bopd
• delta, percent: +2.8%
• revenue forecast: 1.2 million --> 1.1 million --> 1.0 million bopd

Crude price:

• today: $64.80
  
• August: $60.94
• July, 2021: $64.80
• June, 2021: $63.62
• revenue forecast: $50

Natural gas production:

• August, 2021: 2,960,457 mcf/day; +2.85; 90% capture rate (preliminary)
  
• July, 2021: 2,879,408 mcf/day; capture, 90% (revised)
  
• June, 2021: 2,987,829 mcf/day; capture, 92%

Rig count:

• today: 30 (includes one SWD rig)
• August, 2021: 28(included two SWD rigs))
• July, 2021: 23 (ditto)
• June, 2021: 20 (maybe one SWD rig)

Wells:

• September, 2021
• permitted: 69
• completed: 34 (preliminary)
• inactive: --
• DUCS: --
  
• August, 2021:
• permitted: 79 (final)
  
• completed: 47 (revised)
  
• inactive:1,672
• DUCs: 521
• producing: 16,953 (preliminary)
  
• July, 2021:
• permitted: 40
• completed: 53 (final)
• inactive: 2,082
• DUCs: 521
• producing: 16,890
• June, 2021:
• permitted: 75
• completed: 41 (final)
• inactive: 1,839
• DUCs: 680
• producing: 16,844 (all-time high)

DUCs and inactive wells are tracked here.