Sunday, January 3, 2021

Jack Ma -- Missing? January 3, 2021

Scary. Scary. Link here

Global warming smacks Britain. Link here. [London] Daily Mail here.

Less than twelve hours away: Santa Claus rally tracked here. The last two days, Monday / Tuesday -- January 4 and 5, 2021. 

WTI: could it break $50 today?

PFF: this sounds very, very British, and very, very good. Link here. This is truly amazing:

PFF grades every NFL player on every play on a scale of -2 to +2 using half point increments. 
The grades are based on context and performance. 
A four-yard run that gains a first down after two broken tackles will receive a better grade than a four-yard run on 3rd & 5, where the ball carrier does nothing more than expected. A quarterback who makes a good pass that a receiver tips into the arms of a defender will not negatively affect the quarterback's grade on that play, despite the overall negative result for the team. 
Furthermore, grades are separated by play type. 
Beyond just an overall grade, an offensive lineman receives one grade for pass-blocking and one for run-blocking. 
The average grade is meant to be zero, and raw grades are normalized. In watching every game, PFF is also able to record information and create data that is typically unavailable. One example is how frequently individual offensive linemen yield pressure.

********************************************
A Musical Interlude And Some Photography

Another bit of serendipity. I enjoyed Powerline at one time but not so much any more; I seldom visit the site except on Saturday morning for the "week in pictures." But when bored, I might stop by. Wow, I'm glad I stopped by this morning. Every Sunday they have a segment on music, always (?) by Scott Johnson. This past Sunday -- I guess it was yesterday -- a piece on Tony Rice. A must read.

Tony Rice on YouTube.

A British guitarist analyzes Tony Rice's technical ability. Another treasure and another example of how lucky we are to have YouTube. I know nothing about string instruments but I nailed it, watching Tony Rice, noting how Tony Rice managed to strum so quickly. 

So, that's that. 

But in YouTube's wisdom, seeing what I was watching, the site thought I would enjoy this clip, recommending that I take a look. I had not seen this Phil Donahue interview with the cast of Steel Magnolias. It was fascinating. I never cared for Phil Donahue but that's okay. One can get past that and enjoy the folks on stage. 

Note: Sally Fields name is misspelled and the uploader failed to mention Olympia Dukakis on stage. 

Phil does pop up in unusual places. Of all things, he shows up in the documentary, Finding Vivian Maier. Link here. The making of the documentary, the story of how this all came about is as interesting as the story of Vivian Maier herself.

Biography of Vivian Maier.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Exchange Reserves Surge 2.3% -- January 3, 2021

Link here

This is pretty cool. This increase was reported as 2.3% late last week and that turns out to be accurate: 2.314488%:

Back of the envelope:

  • 1674841 million * 0.27 = $452.20707 billion
  • 1713605 million *0.27 =  $462.67335 billion
  • Delta, November over October: $10.46628 billion

Now, let's look at change in price of OPEC basket:

  • October 20, 2020: $41 but by the end of the month had dropped to $39;
  • November 15, 2020: $43 but by the end of the had jumped to $46

$2/bbl * 210 million bbls = $420 million. 

$7/bbl * 210 million bbls = $1.47 billion

Pardon The Interruption! Finally, PBS Brings Back "The Vicar of Dibley" -- Late Night Sunday British Comedies -- January 3, 2021

Wow, wow, wow. Love it. Brings back many, many bittersweet memories. Oh, this looks like the pilot episode, season one, episode one, which I have never seen. OMG. What serendipity that I happened to tune in. 

I may have to open a new bottle of Scotch. LOL. 

The Vicar of Dibley.

"Focus On Fracking" Has Posted; Oil Exports At 40-Week High -- January 3, 2021

Link here.

The lede: oil ends 2020 down 20%; natural gas ends up 15%; oil exports at 40 week high.

A WPX Omaha Woman Is Spectacularly Amazing -- January 3, 2021

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me. I thought an initial production of 82K bbls in the first month of production would be the end of the story, but the second month was almost as good. Remember when Bakken wells were considered to be good wells if they produced 150,000 bbls in the first year. LOL. Look at this.

I track record IPs at this link

The well:

  • 36820, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HC, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 156K over 58 days; ; fracked 8/1/20 - 8/22/20; 8.9 million gallons of water; 84.5% water by mass; five wells on this pad; and look at that, no natural gas vented or flared that first month; good for them; but now, lots of flaring:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-202030737767396055275905965089431658
    BAKKEN10-20202882318819515851162518535750
    BAKKEN9-20200000000
    BAKKEN8-20200000000

Petro-Hunt, All Of A Sudden, Very Active -- Another Pad Completed, Reported -- January 3, 2021

This page will not be updated. 

These wells are tracked elsewhere.

Okay, what does this well's production suggest to you?24046, 1,661, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-2H, Charlson, t1/16; cum 336K 10/19; almost no production since10/19; recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2020308870883337911195888642885
BAKKEN10-202013531253584518665954521116
BAKKEN9-2020291015210031421015615137361719
BAKKEN8-2020009030030
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020201767175888521961754310
BAKKEN3-202000890000
BAKKEN2-202032472403767849553296
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20191530964354939570556080
BAKKEN9-2019273799297016821052878152537
BAKKEN8-20192947195123234412120104401516
BAKKEN7-2019263859344918101013473452629

Yup, you guessed it. That jump in production tells me that neighboring wells have been fracked.

The last time we reported on these wells:

  • 24048, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-5H, Charlson, API - 33-053-04471; 12K over 21 days in 4/20; remains off line7/20;
  • 24049, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-4H, Charlson, 9K over 20 days in 4/20; none since;
  • 24050, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, 9K over 21 days; none since;
  • 24047, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-3H, Charlson, 19K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 24045, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, 16K over 40 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 34295, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-3H, Charlson, 22 K over 49 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 34294, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-2H, Charlson, 13K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since;
  • 27436, SI/NC-->SI/A, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1HS, Charlson,  61K over 2.5 months as of 4/20; none since;

So, let's see what's going on?

  • 24048, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-5H, Charlson, API - 33-053-04471; 12K over 21 days in 4/20; remains off line7/20; now, cum 80K 11/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030244692449513712414792499416276
BAKKEN10-20203123764236221125838335321136006
BAKKEN9-2020301620316010878423971209882816
BAKKEN8-202000600000
  • 24049, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-4H, Charlson, 9K over 20 days in 4/20; none since; now, cum 58K 11/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030177101770416098299541958810157
BAKKEN10-20203115475154291113723954199273811
BAKKEN9-202030144151424388902046819718583
BAKKEN8-202000470000
  • 24050, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, 9K over 21 days; none since; now, cum 27K 10/20:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202000180000
BAKKEN10-202011253137891417401360366
BAKKEN9-2020301203511892962915753145131073
BAKKEN8-202000480000
  • 24047, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-3H, Charlson, 19K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since; now, cum 82K 11/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202000160000
BAKKEN10-202021162125452520531112927
BAKKEN9-20203091149700924914012110062839
BAKKEN8-202064145348418325388532627
BAKKEN7-20200000000
  • 24045, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1H, Charlson, 16K over 40 days as of 4/20; none since; now, cum 31K 11/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202000160000
BAKKEN10-202021162125452520531112927
BAKKEN9-20203091149700924914012110062839
BAKKEN8-202064145348418325388532627
BAKKEN7-20200000000
  • 34295, SI/NC-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-3H, Charlson, 22 K over 49 days as of 4/20; none since; now, cum 32K 11/20:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202000370000
BAKKEN10-202011160138039919441129801
BAKKEN9-20203080097846433810779106120
BAKKEN8-20200000000
  • 34294, SI/NC-->SI/IA, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-94-36D-35-2H, Charlson, 13K over 36 days as of 4/20; none since; now, cum 48K 11/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030124011228043051697987777993
BAKKEN10-2020301284112755520017807144813124
BAKKEN9-202030100719835449014789114773145
BAKKEN8-20200000909
  • 27436, SI/NC-->SI/A, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-1HS, Charlson,  61K over 2.5 months as of 4/20; none since; now, cum 145K 11/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20203016158161411383926384207075468
BAKKEN10-20203118464185671651230469286821571
BAKKEN9-20203021879217791585436426324673750
BAKKEN8-202031271812823014423444364418535

Warms The Cockles Of My Heart Whenever I See This In The Bakken -- January 3, 2021

Last time I reported on this well:

  • 27781, AB/2,055, QEP, TAT 1-35-26TH, Grail, t7/15; cum 89K 6/18; off line as of 6/18; remains off line5/19;

Note the AB. As in "abandoned.”

Now, tonight I noted that the well is back on .... drum roll .. ACTIVE ... status!

  • 27781, A/2,055, QEP, TAT 1-35-26TH, Grail, t7/15; cum 94K 11/20; off line as of 6/18; remains off line 5/19; back on line 1/20;

It's still not a good well, but I love it when any well experiences a near-death experience and comes back to life.

Kraken Hobart Wells -- Production Data Reported -- January 3, 2021

From a year ago:

January 27, 2020: it looks like four more Kraken Hobart wells being drilled:

  • 36976, rig on site, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 3H, Oliver, permit: sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
  • 36975, drl, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 4H, Oliver, permit: sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
  • 36974, drl, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 5H, Oliver, permit: sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
  • 36973, drl, Kraken, Hobart LE 35-26 1H, Oliver, permit: sections 26/27/34/35-157-98, 2560 acres;
January 27, 2020: it looks like there are three more Kraken Black Federal / Hobart wells being drilled:
  • 36977, drl, Kraken, Black Federal 33-287H, Oliver, permit: sections 28/33-157-98; 1280 acres;
  • 36978, drl, Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver, permit: sections 27/28/33/34-157-98; 2560 acres;
  • 36979, drl, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 2H, Oliver, permit: sections 27/34-157-98; 1280 acres;

Fast forward one year

  • 36976, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 3H, Oliver, sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202029124761247421753000
BAKKEN10-2020311619216202275912407623517187
BAKKEN9-202030195471957031274270522676069
BAKKEN8-20203124311242953752826356180108192
BAKKEN7-20202925404254344106823112130119958
BAKKEN6-20202726235262024492730233213818662
BAKKEN5-202028254142540141776299371946710260
BAKKEN4-20202323540234123903127731990917500
  • 36975, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 4H, Oliver, sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202029103141030718879000
BAKKEN10-2020311274112753230582334222789181
BAKKEN9-202030159801600026323279282763372
BAKKEN8-20203120023200383146526777183008323
BAKKEN7-202031260122604836486390972205916884
BAKKEN6-202030276622758640012372792638310688
BAKKEN5-20202919274192693115923322150438062
BAKKEN4-20202318779186772844922723818314218
  • 36974, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 5H, Oliver, sections 27/34-157-98, 1280 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030105371052720920000
BAKKEN10-2020311256512579239762437423813189
BAKKEN9-202030161271616628757254162513065
BAKKEN8-20203123067230863802428334193708810
BAKKEN7-202031301603017047290423222388618282
BAKKEN6-20202827293272714730933469236819593
BAKKEN5-202031287242869551687347002190912558
BAKKEN4-202023238992376944461288711135117198
  • 36973, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart LE 35-26 1H, Oliver, sections 26/27/34/35-157-98, 2560 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030136671364525034000
BAKKEN10-2020311746717560312363135430871111
BAKKEN9-202030224152231237186377693749549
BAKKEN8-2020312756027622434803913538863118
BAKKEN7-202031309063091749399389413874642
BAKKEN6-202027284392852846981304293015389
BAKKEN5-20203126001259134311724676213283115
BAKKEN4-20202320199195303577019169144434385
  • 36977, drl/A, Kraken, Black Federal 33-287H, Oliver,  sections 28/33-157-98; 1280 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030122821229917562000
BAKKEN10-202031149611503620331240872366154
BAKKEN9-202030181761801924355310813082729
BAKKEN8-2020312408024197301133949139124212
BAKKEN7-202031303943051436592408804068245
BAKKEN6-202027285152881036819333633307497
BAKKEN5-2020312853528033374883295832614111
BAKKEN4-202030342983379545610358071874216720
  • 36978, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart LW 34-27 1H, Oliver, sections 27/28/33/34-157-98; 2560 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030120221205720577000
BAKKEN10-2020301458614664244022589025357175
BAKKEN9-202030177751762528087322623195681
BAKKEN8-2020312455924689369303880438486163
BAKKEN7-2020313111731262445454309742839104
BAKKEN6-202027266372698441947303663007995
BAKKEN5-2020312939328820456883292032337351
BAKKEN4-202029349023438555205332961908313868
  • 36979, drl/A, Kraken, Hobart 34-27 2H, Oliver, sections 27/34-157-98; 1280 acres;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030131751316317263000
BAKKEN10-2020311576815778207652295322403178
BAKKEN9-202030190371907122977264252613368
BAKKEN8-20203125432254593071128181192648762
BAKKEN7-2020313449834514392513512336394
BAKKEN6-20202831848318123949232577230479337
BAKKEN5-202031316853167041166360262240413389
BAKKEN4-202024294762931640094335141187021299