Locator: 45936ND.
Incredible numbers. We'll discuss them over the weekend, if the spirit moves me.
Link here. 1Q23.
Link here. Full year, 2022.
Locator: 45936ND.
Incredible numbers. We'll discuss them over the weekend, if the spirit moves me.
Link here. 1Q23.
Link here. Full year, 2022.
North Dakota taxable sales: most recently data available --
Meta: way oversold on Friday? If so, it's way oversold today. Down another 4% or $10; trading at $226. If you like FB at $323 last week, you should be loving FB at $226 today. Without question, the easiest 10% advance this year will be on FB. My hunch: 20%.
Most incredible "seasonal flu" season I've ever seen. Covid-19 literally eliminated "season flu." Link here.
Global warming: models did not take into account ... drum roll ... clouds. LOL. From The WSJ. The ultra-rich are buying more coastal property than ever and paying top dollar for it.
Carbon capture? Not in my back yard.
Olympics: everyone knows, nobody cares. Lowest ratings ever.
North Dakota once again leads all states in revenue recovery following the Great Recession as it rides stable growth in the Oil Patch even as the farm economy struggles.
Since the peak quarter during the Great Recession, which ran from 2007 to 2009, state tax receipts in North Dakota have risen 71.2% as of the second quarter of 2019, outpacing all other states, according to an analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts.
North Dakota’s revenue growth was even more impressive as of the end of 2014, when oil prices were soaring, the Oil Patch was booming and state tax receipts skyrocketed 123.9% from their Great Recession peak.
“It’s nice to see we’re in a phase of continued, sustainable growth in all of our revenues,” said Ryan Rauschenberger, state tax commissioner.
Minnesota and South Dakota also were among 45 states where tax revenues rebounded since the recession, and among 16 states that had tax revenue growth exceeding 15%. Tax receipts rose 28.8% in Minnesota and 22.4% in South Dakota.
The state collects an estimated $250,000 in sales taxes for every oil well that is drilled, for example. Similarly, he said, job expansion from petroleum development spurs income tax growth.
“It’s not just oil revenue that’s growing,” he said. So far this biennium, tax receipts are running ahead of projections made last April.
“Across the board we are ahead of forecast,” Rauschenberger said. “We feel pretty comfortable with where we’re at with our general fund budget.”
On Tuesday, Jan. 7, Rauschenberger’s office announced that taxable sales and purchases for July, August and September of 2019 were $5.852 billion, a 4% increase over those months in 2018.
“We’re actually collecting more in a month than we were in a year before the Bakken (boom)” when production was less than 200,000 barrels per day, Rauschenberger said.
Last year, when Pew ran an earlier comparison, North Dakota tax revenues had rebounded 58.7% since the peak of the Great Recession, the highest of all states. That compared to a gain of 27.2% for Minnesota and 21.6% for South Dakota.
Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger announced ]that North Dakota’s taxable sales and purchases for the first quarter of 2019 are up nearly 10%. Taxable sales and purchases for January, February and March of 2019 were $4.453 billion, a 9.67% increase over those months in 2018.
“We are pleased to report good year-over-year increases for the past eight quarters, five of which have seen nearly 10% growth or more.” Rauschenberger said. “It was no surprise to see a significant increase in this report with oil production hitting an all-time record of 1.4 million barrels per day in January.”
Thirteen of the 15 major sectors reported taxable sales and purchases gains when compared to the first quarter a year ago. Most notably, the mining and oil extraction sector increased by $123.8 million (a 21.65% increase), the wholesale trade sector increased by $115.1 million (a 12.19% increase), and the retail trade sector increased by $68.4 million (a 5.39% increase).
“The retail trade sector showed an increase of 5.39% when compared to last year,” Rauschenberger stated. “This continues a recent trend of growth in this important sector. This is great news after several years of declines in this vital component of the state’s economy.”
Rauschenberger added that prior to the three most recent quarters, the state experienced at least ten quarters of declines in the retail trade sector.
Three of the state’s top six largest cities saw an increase in taxable sales and purchases for the first quarter, all of which are on the west side of the state. The state’s largest two cities saw no growth.
Percent changes for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) for the top six largest cities in North Dakota were as follows:
.Complete state data at this site, a pdf will download.Of the 50 largest cities in North Dakota, the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) were as follows:
- Williston – increase of 14.79%
- Dickinson – increase of 11.69%
- Minot – increase of 6.10%
- Bismarck – decrease of 0.48%
- Fargo – decrease of 0.61%
- Grand Forks – decrease of 1.86%
Counties with the highest percent increases for the first quarter of 2019 (compared to the first quarter of 2018) were as follows:
- Garrison – increase of 39.96%
- Stanley – increase of 35.24%
- Wishek – increase of 32.55%
- Watford City – increase of 24.91%
- Grafton – increase of 21.40%
- Logan County – increase of 96.48%
- Burke County – increase of 70.90%
- Mountrail County – increase of 41.02%
- Slope County – increase of 29.41%
- McIntosh County – increase of 25.58%
Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.
The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.
North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.
Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.
Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.
The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.
The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.
Several categories of state tax collections are well above forecast, thanks largely to the resurgence in the state’s oil industry.
The combination of higher oil prices and increased oil production has tax collections well ahead of the forecast made during the 2017 legislative session.
North Dakota oil producers received an average of $61.11 per barrel during the month of April, with near-record production of 1.22 million bbl/day.
Legislators forecast production at less than a million bbl/day at a price of $47.00/bbl, so tax collections for the month of June were 72% higher than predicted.
Corporate and personal income tax, motor vehicle excise tax and sales tax collections are also running ahead of the budget forecast.
The upside in the oil industry has been partially offset by lower commodity prices for grain and livestock. [Always something to complain about.]See 1Q18 taxable sales data here.
The surge in oil tax revenue, including a deposit of nearly $59 million in June, has pushed the state’s Legacy Fund balance to more than $5.5 billion.
Moody's Investors Service affirms the Ba2 rating on the City of Williston, ND's general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) debt. The outlook remains negative.
The Ba2 rating incorporates Williston's heavy reliance on the oil and gas production industry. Improving oil prices and the 2017 opening of the Dakota Access Pipeline have strengthened the local economy, driving growth in sales taxes and oil and gas production taxes, which are the city's primary revenues. However, Williston's leverage is high, reflecting sizeable capital projects the city has taken on to accommodate the past decade's oil production-driven population growth. The city has committed itself to additional infrastructure projects, including a major airport expansion, the ultimate scope of which has not yet been determined. These growing capital needs, as well as narrow sewer enterprise operations, are key credit pressures that overshadow recent improvements in the local economy.Full history here.
In Stanley, the High School is remodeling and adding on to accommodate more students.
Before the oil, Stanley had about 300 students enrolled in the district.
Now, there are about there's about 700 students in the district and around 300 of them are at the high school.
“This 10 percent increase in the first quarter (1Q18) is the largest year-over-year growth we’ve seen since 2014,” Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger said. “We are continuing with positive gains as this is the fourth quarter in a row that we’ve seen growth in this report … The increase in oil activity in the western part of the state played a major role in moving this report to a double-digit positive again.”
And more:Williams and McKenzie counties saw 33.29 percent and 37.32 percent increases respectively.
“Williston has moved back to having the second-largest taxable sales and purchases in the state, with Fargo holding at first,” Rauschenberger said.
Williston’s taxable sales and purchases were up 33.19 percent, while Fargo’s were down 1.96 percent.
Other links:Watford City, another oil field town had a taxable sales and purchases increase of 40.63 percent. Tioga was up 38.36 percent, New Town was up 28.15 percent and Dickinson was up 14.72 percent.
Wow, wow, wow -- what a poor headline.2017 over 2016:Every major city in ND showed negative change 2017 over 2016 EXCEPT Dickinson and Williston. Even Minot showed a slight decrease. Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks -- all negative.Williston: 24% increase in taxable sales and purchases year-over-year.The only reason ND was even positive by 3% was due completely to the Bakken.Even Minot was slightly negative.
Sales taxes don't represent the total economic picture, but are a good indicator since they track the physical movement of goods and services. North Dakota figures for the second quarter show that Williston's economy has turned a corner - a scoop for the people who sat in on the Williston Area Chamber of Commerce's Eggs and Issues with State Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger on Friday morning.
"This is not public yet," Rauschenberger told the gathering. "We were working on a statewide report for the second quarter of 2017 and we pulled out some Williston specific data just for this presentation."
The data shows a jump of $83 million in sales taxes for the second quarter year over year. Sales taxes in the second quarter 2016 were $263.7 million and $347.3 million for the same period this year.Williston finds calm after frantic years. Locals disagree with those who say the Bakken went from boom to bust. It went from boom to over-drive, but steady. From The Grand Forks Herald:
Like many who now live in Williston, Krause is a transplant, brought to northwest North Dakota by the promise of lucrative work in a hot economic landscape.
Today, some two years after plunging oil prices slowed the frantic pace of life in the state's Oil Patch, she's part of a new class of business owners taking root in what many in town describe as a city transformed, a place that's now striving to capitalize on mineral wealth while fostering a more family-friendly community.
Krause, who is originally from Milwaukee, never worked in the oil field, but she did spend two of her five years in town as a journalist at the local newspaper, the Williston Herald. She says that work introduced her to people from other parts of the country who had flocked to the patch seeking new prospects much as she had.
Over time, she says she "felt I started to embody all those hopes and dreams of what brought them here, to bring them to stay, and what they wanted it to be."
The idea for an art studio and store gradually took root, led her to approach the Williston Economic Development office and resulted in the store she operates today.
Dreams aside, she cites continually rising local birth rates and public school enrollments as among the tangible factors that encouraged her to open. Looking back, she doesn't think her shop would have been viable in Williston as it was at her arrival during the boom.
"I guess back then it was a large male population that worked an obscene amount of hours," Krause said. "Their time off would have been spent sleeping or maybe at a bar, so I don't think this place would have survived, not until the population switched out from them to the workers who decided to stay and bring up their families and their wives."
The booms of a cyclical commodity such as oil and gas are typically followed by a corresponding bust. That term is used to describe current conditions in the Patch by those elsewhere in North Dakota, including on the peripheries of the main producing region. In Williston, though, the label is subject to debate.
"I can't say it was a bust, not by any means," said Kim Wenko, the owner of clothing boutique Mode located a few doors down from Krause's shop.
Wenko has lived in Williston for about nine years, and admits readily that her knowledge of the place is influenced in part by her marriage to the city's head of economic development, Shawn Wenko, as well as by the fact that her partner in the store is a member of the City Commission. Still, her assessment of overall economic conditions is largely driven by her personal experience in a town she says has grown dramatically over her near-decade of residency.
"When I moved here, you could eat out at Applebee's," and that was about it, Wenko says. "Now there's like 15 new restaurants" and counting.
Tarren Rehak, a lifelong Willistonian and a local schoolteacher, was shopping in the boutique that day—and, coincidentally, had worked at that Applebee's when she was younger. She quickly backed up Wenko's description of the gains made during the boom and, thus far, how much of them had stuck.
"I still have 29 kindergarteners. It's the biggest class size I've ever had," Rehak said.
Locator: 10010OBAMALEGACY.
ND Legacy Fund. This is pretty cool. After a really, really bad year (relatively) for the ND Legacy Fund, 2016 looked pretty good. It looks like the bleeding has stopped. If you go to the link, toggle back and forth between 2016 and 2015; it's pretty remarkable.
ND Legacy Fund. Through December 2016, total deposits were $3,736,151,063. Deposits, not net assets.
ND taxable sales. Same with ND taxable sales; the numbers are still bad, but officials suggest things will level off, hit a new normal.
June 9, 2025:
January 12, 2017: in the comments section at this post, a reader provided an updated list:
The amount of money indicated does not reflect how much was actually received or spent but how much was offered. The amount also does not include other state, local, and federal tax credits and subsidies, which push the amount of money these companies have received from taxpayers even higher.The complete list of faltering or bankrupt green-energy companies: