Wednesday, August 19, 2020

It Came Up In Discussion The Other Day -- IRAs -- August 19, 2020

From SmartAsset:

For 2020, the maximum amount you can contribute to a Roth IRA is $6,000. You’re allowed to increase that to $7,000 if you’re age 50 or older. 
These same limits apply to traditional IRAs. And it’s also worth noting that this is a cumulative limit. If for some reason you have both a traditional and Roth IRA, your total contributions to both accounts can’t exceed the annual limit when combined. 
Unlike traditional IRAs, there’s no deadline for taking money from your Roth IRA. 
Traditional IRAs have required minimum distributions that must begin starting at age 72. 
With a Roth IRA, you can keep adding money to your account as long as you’re working and have earned income. And you can leave the money you’re investing in your Roth IRA for as long as you want so it can continue to grow. 

Withdrawals, from Investopedia:

You can withdraw Roth IRA contributions at any time, for any reason, without paying taxes or penalties. If you withdraw Roth IRA earnings before age 59½, a 10% penalty usually applies. Withdrawals before age 59½ from a traditional IRA trigger a 10% penalty tax, whether you withdraw contributions or earnings. In certain IRS-approved situations, you may take early withdrawals from an IRA with no penalty.

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Hearing Voices

True story. I have a niece one year older than Sophia, making my niece about seven years old.

One recent evening, her older brother, about 14 years old, I suppose, found an Alexa Echo in the trash. He asked his sister why Alexa was in the garbage. She replied, "It's haunted."

"What do you mean, it's haunted?" her brother asked.

"It talks to me."

LOL.

When I hear voices, I just take my meds.

EOG Update -- Michael Fitzsimmons -- August 19, 2020

 EOG update: Michael Fitzsimmons at SeekingAlpha. Archived here. Summary:

  • like virtually every O&G producer, EOG Resources had a tough Q2 and for the first time I can remember posted a big negative EPS number
  • nonetheless, the company's fundamental operations and financial performance were impressive
  • the company actually generated ~$194 million in FCF despite shut-in production and a $20/bbl realized price for oil
  • in view of expectations for a dramatic comeback in Q3 and Q4, EOG is undervalued and could easily rise to $60/share for a 30% return

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OXY-Warrants

Hit an all-time low today: $3.00 even.

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For The Archives
That Cross-Country Trip

My recent trip from Grapevine, TX (DFW area) to Portland, OR, and then to Flathead Lake, MT, and then back home to Grapevine, TX. 

Enterprise Rental car: a Ford Fiesta with 24,000 miles on it. Manufacturer / EPA:

  • up to 27 mpg in city
  • 37 mpg highway

Three legs:

  • Departed Grapevine, TX, Tuesday evening, 8:15 p.m., July 28. Arrived Portland, OR, Thursday morning, July30, 10:00 a.m. 1,934 miles. Gained two hours, time zone changes.
  • Departed Portland, OR, 4:00 a.m., Tuesday morning, August 4. Arrived Lakeside, MT (Flathead Lake), same day, 3:00 p.m. 566 miles. Lost one hour, time zone change.
  • Departed Lakeside, MT, 1:00 p.m. Saturday, August 8. Arrived Grapevine, TX, Monday morning, 2:00 a.m., August 10. 1,867 miles. Lost one hour, time zone change,

Mileage (MPG):

  • trip average: 41.11 miles per gallon (and drove the car hard, 80 mph or more, interstate-driving most of the way)
  • best mileage from DFW to Portland, OR: 45.97 miles per gallon
  • best mileage from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, MT: 40.43 pg
  • best mileage from Flathead Lake, MT, to Grapevine, TX: 46.12 mpg

Stretch:

  • best mileage on leg from DFW to Portland, OR: 45.97 miles per gallon -- Green River, UT, to Snowville, UT;
  • best mileage on leg from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, MT: 40.43 pg -- Ritzville, OR, to St Regis, MT:
  • best mileage on leg from Flathead Lake, MT, to Grapevine, TX: 46.12 mpg -- Tremonton, UT, to Moab, UT;

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Tires: For The Record

I don't buy Goodyear tires, never have, never will. 
Firestone emerged as an affordable tire brand with average performance options and average tread-mile warranties. ... By comparison, Goodyear averages $108 per tire for the same size, though it has a much great variety of performance options to choose from. -- reviews; July 9, 2018

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #265 -- August 19, 2020

This has been a common theme on the blog: Saudi is in deep trouble.

The first domino?  

From Bloomberg:

Kuwait has 2 billion dinars ($6.6 billion) worth of liquidity in its Treasury and not enough cash to cover state salaries beyond October, Finance Minister Barak Al-Sheetan warned parliament, as political wrangling again delayed efforts to return to international bond markets. 
The government is withdrawing from its General Reserve Fund at a rate of 1.7 billion dinars a month, meaning liquidity will soon be depleted if oil prices don’t improve and if Kuwait can’t borrow from local and international markets. 
As energy-rich Gulf states see their finances hammered by the collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, the remarks point to a dramatic reversal of fortunes for some of the world’s wealthiest nations. Managing the crisis has proven especially challenging for Kuwait, where all laws must be approved by lawmakers who accuse the government of mismanaging public money and are blocking legislation that would allow it to borrow abroad.

I don't know enough about either of the countries, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, to compare, but this certainly seems to be a red flag. The current price of oil -- in the mid-$40's is less than half what Saudi needs to balance their budget.

No New Permits; Five Permits Renewed -- August 19, 2020

 Active rigs:

$42.93
8/19/202008/19/201908/19/201808/19/201708/19/2016
Active Rigs1262595332

No new permits.

Five permits renewed:

  • Whiting (3): three Satterthwaite permits in Mountrail County.
  • XTO (2): two Ernest Federal permits in Dunn County.

No New News But More Info Regarding That Second Bakken Pipeline Ordered Shut -- August 19, 2020

Note: the pipeline was ordered shut down, but the company has appealed that decision, posted August 19, 2020. 

 From the GF Herald, from June 17, 2020, an op-ed, archived:

Tesoro High Plains Pipeline recently began sending a right-of-way and “past use” agreement to hundreds of individual landowners on the Fort Berthold Reservation. A proposed lease agreement opponents consider “wholly unacceptable.”

The pipeline’s offer attempts to remedy a seven-year-long trespass across Fort Berthold that crosses some 90 acres. The pipeline was owned by Andeavor, which was later bought by Marathon Petroleum Corp. The company first sought a lease renewal from landowners in October 2017. After repeated meetings and failed “good-faith” negotiations, landowners responded by filing lawsuits.

While landowners have been left to negotiate with Marathon, leaders of the Three Affiliated Tribes Tribal Business Council struck their own deal with the oil company in 2016. Tribal leaders did not attempt to get the same fair-market deal for tribal citizens. Mark Fox told the Bismarck Tribune in October 2018 that it was up to the Bureau of Indian Affairs, not the tribe, to take care of the individual landowner.

Fox’s line of thinking runs contrary to the practice of true tribal sovereignty which calls for tribal leaders to take care of the people. Ironically, it is the individual landowners at Fort Berthold who own title to 66 acres of land compared to the tribe’s 24 acres. Yet, tribal leaders negotiated a contract and allowed the trespass to continue without seeking individual landowner input. The tribe’s contract with the oil company is tens of millions of dollars more than what is being offered to its citizens.

“Andeavor has provided an offer to landowners that is less than 1/20th what it paid the tribe for the exact same pipeline over similar land,” said attorney Keith Harper, a former US ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council “We are in the process of communicating this offer to the landowners but we suspect most, if not all, will consider this offer wholly unacceptable. Importantly, we do not consider this good-faith negotiations.”

Meanwhile, after standing by idly for years, the BIA appears finally ready to issue a trespass decision. Reed Soderstrom, an attorney representing a group of Three Affiliated Tribes landowners, has requested the BIA issue a cease and desist order. As the years pass, Marathon-Tesoro pipeline operators continue to reap billions of dollars in profits while transporting oil across reservation land. The pipeline carries oil to the Marathon Petroleum Mandan Refinery in Mandan, N.D.

Mediation is being scheduled, said Reed Soderstrom, an attorney representing a group of Fort Berthold landowners. It will likely take place in August.

“This offer attempts to settle both the trespass and the future right of way,” said Soderstrom. “This offer is as follows: $9,000 bonus per acre, annual payments for the remaining 21 years of $2,000 per acre, and $19,600 per acre for trespass. Tesoro sees this offer as totaling $70,600 per acre. We think this offer is too low and advise everyone not to sign.”

More at the link.

Random Update Of An EOG Well On The Eastern Fringe Of The Bakken -- August 19, 2020

Back on 8/19, I posted this:

16768, EOG, a huge well; typical decline rate; 668K 8/19; petering out; what will they do with these wells; incredibly good wells; just let them decline to nothing; re-frack or re-drill nearby?
The well:

  • 16768, 1,441, EOG, Austin 2-03H, Parshall, t12/07; cum 675K 6/20;

Comments: this well is located on the far eastern fringe of Bakken; unless the price of oil appreciates significantly, I can't imagine a lot of activity this far east. So, I was surprised when this well brought back on line after being shut in in 4/20 like most of the Bakken during global demand destruction. And initial production when brought back on  line looked pretty impressive.

But more interesting, there are three locations on a single pad to the east of this well in the same section yet to be drilled.

16768, recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20203013311315210195617160
BAKKEN5-202062021622352460207
BAKKEN4-202000540000
BAKKEN3-202018461462807185720
BAKKEN2-2020297057057011789420
BAKKEN1-2020314864863710477960
BAKKEN12-20193179579751130110500
BAKKEN11-201930962961651395113021
BAKKEN10-2019311033108984152712780
BAKKEN9-2019306616053811619210

Graphics:


The three locations to the east:

  • 26628, loc, EOG, Austin 76-0333H, Parshall,
  • 26626, loc, EOG, Austin 33-0333H, Parshall,
  • 26625, loc, EOG, Austin 32-0333H, Parshall,

Years and years ago, I talked about the numbering system of EOG. I got no pushback on my observations, and will leave it at that.

Random Update Of A Nice BR Well, West Kellogg 24-31H -- #16890 -- August 19, 2020

 For much more background see this note

The well:

  • 16890, 321, BR, West Kellogg 24-31H, Elidah, t4/08; cum 364K 8/20;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202046849021074262726170
BAKKEN5-20203157495856486718148180710
BAKKEN4-20203057475417518116744166646
BAKKEN3-2020306179634157681911618816226
BAKKEN2-20202772677216646420505189631475
BAKKEN1-202031781878187553214004221281
BAKKEN12-2019318428891278422152873020721
BAKKEN11-20193010927108331018727573208486651
BAKKEN10-20192979807890806420000199280
BAKKEN9-20192261766097718815621155660
BAKKEN8-201931775075401163819811197340
BAKKEN7-2019302362251034703960
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-201924967133410272230213436
BAKKEN3-20193124782303984474936331039
BAKKEN2-201915869708421118918163
BAKKEN1-20192618942115442432942640
BAKKEN12-20182917741841556369036180

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- August 19, 2020

Weekly report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage: decreased by 1.6 million bbls
  • US crude oil in storage: now stands at 512.5 million bbls; 15% above the already-fat five-year average;
  • refiners operating at 80.9% -- still historically low but at least in the "80's"
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million b/d last week; up by 109,000 b/d from the previous week;
  • US crude oil imports average about 5.6 million bld over the past four week;s about 22% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • jet fuel supplied down about the same as the last report; down about 48% compared with same four-week period last year;

Re-balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9

Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5

Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2

Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0

Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5

Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4

Week 76

May 20, 2020

-5.0

526.5

Week 77

May 28, 2020

7.9

534.4

Week 78

June 3, 2020

-2.1

532.3

Week 79

June 10, 2020

5.7

538.1

Week 80

June 17, 2020

1.2

539.3

Week 81

June 24, 2020

1.4

540.7

Week 82

July 1, 2020

-7.2

533.5

Week 83

July 8, 2020

5.7

539.2

Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1

Week 89

August 19, 2020

-1.6

512.5

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 5

4/11/2020

-39.70%

Week 6

4/18/2020

-53.60%

Week 7

4/24/2020

-61.60%

Week 8

5/1/2020

-66.60%

Week 9

5/8/2020

-68.50%

Week 10

5/15/2020

-67.90%

Week 11

May 22, 2020

-66.60%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

-68.70%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

-63.70%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

-62.30%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

-62.50%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

-60.00%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

-57.20%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

-47.60%

US crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

6.6

-0.222

-10.000%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

6.5

-0.102

-11.600%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

6.5

-0.600

-11.300%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

7.4

1.400

-8.500%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

7.5

-1.800

-10.200%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

5.7

0.109

-21.700%