ATT, TSMC -- No-Brainer Buys -- Motley Fool -- March 22, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

I've mentioned several times on the blog that I'm always fully invested in the market. I park "uninvested" cash in ATT until ready to buy one of the equities in my "buying bucket." If that makes sense.

But I've never really followed ATT or even considered it a great investment. So, I was very, very surprised when I happened to come across this Motley Fool article. When I posted the article I had not yet read the entire article, but tonight, with more time, read it closely. 

Look at this:

In 2022, this slimmed-down AT&T gained 2.9 million postpaid phone subscribers, while its larger competitor Verizon Communications only gained 201,000 new postpaid phone subscribers. The growth of AT&T's consumer wireline business, which was driven by the expansion of its high-speed fiber networks, also partly offset the slower growth of its business wireline segment.

AT&T expects its annual free cash flow (FCF) to rise by at least $2 billion to over $16 billion in 2023. That flood of cash easily covered its $9.9 billion in dividend payments in 2022 and protects its forward yield of 5.8%. For 2023, analysts expect its revenue to rise 2%, but for its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to dip 5% as its profits are squeezed by higher pension costs and tax rates.

But excluding those expenses, AT&T's adjusted EPS would likely rise about 1%. Those growth rates might seem anemic, but its stock also looks dirt cheap at 8 times forward earnings. That low multiple should limit its downside potential and make it a good safe haven play as the bear market drags on.

Not exactly a "ringing" endorsement but still ... 

In that same article, TSMC:

TSMC, the world's largest and most advanced chip foundry, is also still a great long-term play on the secular expansion of the semiconductor market. It manufactures the world's smallest, densest, and most power-efficient chips for "fabless" chipmakers like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices, and Qualcomm, and it remains at least one or two generations ahead (in terms of transistor density) of its closest competitors Samsung and Intel.

Anemic action in 2023 ... but then ...

In 2024, TSMC's growth is expected to accelerate again as the macro environment improves, the supply/demand balance is restored, and it accelerates its production of its next-gen 3nm chips. Its continued installation of ASML's top-tier extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which etch the circuit patterns for its smallest chips, should also keep it far ahead of Samsung and Intel.

TSMC stock trades at just 15 times forward earnings, and it pays a decent forward dividend yield of 2.5%. That low valuation and high yield should limit its downside potential until the semiconductor market warms up again.

I follow this sector here.

Apple, Microsoft Dominate US Markets -- March 22, 2023

Link to The WSJ.

Not just tech, but "US markets."

The FAANG era is apparently over. The U.S. market is dominated by just two stocks now.

The combined weighting of Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. in the S&P 500 has risen to 13.3%, the highest level on record, while the influence of other big technology stocks has waned of late. That is according to Strategas Securities data going back to 1990.

Not since International Business Machines Corp. IBM -1.99%decrease; red down pointing triangle and AT&T in 1978 have two stocks made up a greater share of the benchmark, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas, said Apple and Microsoft have emerged as havens in the stock market turmoil, bringing their weightings in the S&P 500 to 7.11% and 6.14%, respectively. The stocks have gained 21% and 14% in 2023 after suffering steep losses last year.

“It’s just been monumental,” Mr. Sohn said. “There’s just more comfort with the way Apple and Microsoft are viewed as opposed to going out and buying any tech name out there.”

But look at this: tech -- we mentioned this the other day --

More broadly, investors have piled into tech stocks to hide out from the banking crisis amid hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its campaign raising interest rates. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite has rallied 1.9% this month, extending its 12% gain for the year, while the S&P 500 is down 0.8% in March and has given up almost all of its early year advance.

Lori Van Dusen, founder and chief executive of LVW Advisors in Rochester, N.Y., cautions investors to actively pick stocks instead of just buying funds tied to an index, noting that the hefty weighting of tech companies during the dot-com bubble led to big market declines.

“The index is more concentrated than it’s been. You’re just making a bet that these are going to be the places to be going forward and that’s usually a bad bet,” she said. “That is not the way to make money in the coming years.”

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wow! Gasoline Demand Exceeds Previous Year -- March 22, 2023

Link here.

Days of crude oil in supply, US: 31.7 days. Down very, very slightly. Link here.

Global Warming, North Dakota, Winter 2022 - 2023

From a reader.

Wow, look at Willliston; holds the record among cities shown.

Xi-Putin Summit A Failure -- March 22, 2023

Xi-Putin summit: a failed summit. Putin didn't have enough to offer XI.

"And for this, I flew all the way to Moscow?" This is with whom Xi would have been dealing: link here.

• over the next year or so, we're going to see how really strapped Russia is.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Two new permits, #39752 - #39753, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: Slawson has permits for two Armada Federal wells, SWNE 15-151-92; 
• to be sited 1985 FEL with one well 2335 FNL and the other well 2385 FNL
• the Armada Federal wells are tracked here.
  

Seven permits renewed:

• Formentera (6): these permits in Divide County -- Curtis, Shorty, Ranger, Lincoln State, Bervik, and Beetle;
• Enerplus: one permit for a Quartzite well in Moccasin Creek, Dunn County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completd:

• 36997, 1,085, CRL, LCU Ralph Federal 7-27H1, the LCU Ralph Federal wells are tracked here.
• 38182, 1673, WPX, Moccasin Creek 14-11-4H
• 38183, 400, WPX, Moccasin Creek, 14-11 5TFH,

Throwing The Baby Out With The Bath Water -- March 22, 2023

First question: why would Ford do this?

I can think of several possible reasons.

The Book Page -- March 22, 2023

From wiki:

A groyne (in the U.S. groin) is a rigid hydraulic structure built perpendicularly from an ocean shore (in coastal engineering) or a river bank, interrupting water flow and limiting the movement of sediment. It is usually made out of wood, concrete, or stone. In the ocean, groynes create beaches, prevent beach erosion caused by longshore drift where this is the dominant process and facilitate beach nourishment. There is also often cross-shore movement which if longer than the groyne will limit its effectiveness. In a river, groynes slow down the process of erosion and prevent ice-jamming, which in turn aids navigation.

Groynes run generally perpendicular to the shore, extending from the upper foreshore or beach into the water. All of a groyne may be underwater, in which case it is a submerged groyne. They are often used in tandem with seawalls and other coastal engineering features. Groynes, however, may cause a shoreline to be perceived as unnatural. Groynes are generally straight but could be of various plan view shapes, permeable or impermeable, built from various materials such as wood, sand, stone rubble, or gabion, etc. 

The book:

• Silent Spring Revolution: John F. Kennedy, Rachel Carson, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and the Great Environmental Awakening, Douglas Brinkley, 2022.

I highly recommend this book for any junior or senior in high school who plans to major in political science in college.

Also, by Douglas Brinkley, The Wilderness Warrior: Theodore Roosevelt and the Crusade for America, 2010.

Poolside Rambling -- March 22, 2023

DFW: 78°F. Feels like 90°F due to high humidity. Poolside.

The Fed: "everyone," a month ago, said the Fed needed to raise rates 75 basis points in March (2023) and keep raising through the rest of the year. After the collapse of the Silicon Valley Band and Credit Suisse, "everyone" agreed that a little inflation is a whole lot better than collapse of the entire global banking system. I was saying that well before the collapse of SVB: the "inflation meme" is overblown. It was only 9% if one was buying a used car. 

Blinked? JPow and the Fed? One and almost done. Twenty-five basis points today and one more hike for the year. End point: 5.1%. Compare with folks carrying 24% interest on their cards.

WTI: solidly above $70 after JPow's remarks.

AAPL: "gearing up for a breakout." Not long ago this stock was trading for $135.

Japanese pastry shop opens down the street from our house.

Laser-focused on dividends. Link here.

Quick update: retail growth in our neighborhood:

Arianna and Sophia enjoying sushi at Kura, a "revolving sushi" restaurant.

Texas sports: anoche Sophia had soccer practice at a practice field at this church in Colleyville, TX, a suburb of Ft Worth that abuts our town of Euless, TX. There were 18 practice fields on the north side of the church, and 18 practice fields on the south side of the church. Just one of dozens of practice soccer venues in the area.

Painting:

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report — March 22, 2023

Weekly EIA petroleum report, later this morning: link here.

• only three data points got my attention:
• refiners are still "holding the line";
• distillate fuel inventories tell a confusing story; and,
• jet fuel supplied was up nicely

WTI: after the report was released -- $69.98.

******************************
The Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

AAPL: folks are talking about "gearing up for a breakout."

TSM: is anyone paying attention? Link here. Along with V could be next "trillion-dollar companies."

NVDA: these tech stocks are now considered defensive stocks! Wow.

Russia Extends Oil Production CUT Through June, 2023 -- March 22, 2023

Big story. Comes on news that Xi-Putin summit was a failure.

Predicted.

Russia engaged in expensive war; needs cash. So, why would Putin cut oil production?

Link here.

Credit Suisse Collapse And The Saudis -- March 22, 2023

Credit Suisse collapse burns Saudi investors: link here. 

DUBAI—Riding an oil-price boom last year, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman directed government-backed Saudi National Bank to make a $1.5 billion investment in Credit Suisse Group AG that his financial advisers harbored doubts about.

Now, the Saudi investment is almost wiped out after Credit Suisse’s emergency merger with UBS Group AG.

Credit Suisse’s meltdown also erased billions of dollars in investments made by Qatar’s sovereign fund and the Saudi-based Olayan family, making the Persian Gulf one of the biggest losers from a slide in financial stocks since the collapse of two U.S. banks last week.

The Saudi investment in Credit Suisse was meant to be the kingdom’s splashy entrance into the global banking sector, cementing its emerging status as an oil-fueled investing powerhouse. The Saudis struck the deal when oil prices were just below $100 a barrel, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine juiced energy markets.

The steep losses are a reminder of how Gulf states were burned investing in Western banks and hedge funds during the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. The value of foreign assets in portfolios of the Gulf Cooperation Council states in 2008 fell by $100 billion to a total of $1.2 trillion, not counting the vast personal holdings of their ruling families, the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations reported in 2009.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

The market:

• ATT, Fortinet, TSMC: no-brainer buys right now. Link to Motley Fool.
• AAPL: gearing up for a major breakout. Link to TheStreet, March 21, 2023.
• DIS: more bad news for investors. Link to TheStreet, March 21, 2023.
• Commodities supercycle: Goldman Sachs.

An Old Hess Beaver Lodge Well With Small Jump In Production -- March 22, 2023

The well:

• 17302, 527, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-1003H-1, Beaver Lodge, t10/08; cum 222K 1/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	3	21	229	139	90	90	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	1186	1098	1446	3020	3000	20
BAKKEN	11-2022	7	437	478	458	836	830	6
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	1642	1621	2727	5146	5115	31
BAKKEN	9-2022	29	1495	1440	2632	4208	4183	25
BAKKEN	8-2022	16	832	744	1133	1858	1858	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	52	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	15	337	348	147	804	804	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	704	720	292	1729	1729	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	829	842	317	1834	1834	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	13	637	664	129	1223	1223	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	10	178	225	68	441	441	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	621	654	283	1571	1571	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	699	758	280	1553	1553	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	29	977	720	499	1817	1817	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	7	3	12	49	502	502	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	6	45	121	41	133	133	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	764	746	262	1989	1989	0

 

Initial Production: Ovintiv Kramer Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Past Week -- March 22, 2023

This page will not be updated. The Kramer wells are tracked here.

First the parent well:

• 22390, on one of the Kramer pads, 1,252, Ovintiv, Lund 26-18SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 191K 1/12; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	3054	3044	9644	5194	5152	42
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	3127	3077	9917	4010	4010	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	2909	2908	12242	4760	4599	161
BAKKEN	10-2022	2	79	0	18	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	20	998	931	9500	1468	1391	77
BAKKEN	8-2022	3	62	0	1160	150	150	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	2	1	464	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	2	0	39	69	69	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	28	359	618	129	1744	1744	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	849	857	173	2007	2007	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1658	1710	200	2186	2186	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	22	713	655	254	1894	1788	106

Initial Production

•  38244, 2,128, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-3H, Siverston, t--; cum 108K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	21218	21347	19879	79098	78141	775
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	23642	23499	23712	68193	64920	3083
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	27841	27745	30048	716	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	45526	45683	57280	86234	85240	226
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	50085	49955	71998	125997	118889	6288
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	12634	12495	27806	24480	21861	2389

• 38245, drl/A, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H, Siverston, t--; cum 189K 1/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	18800	18925	20287	66144	65337	648
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	21647	21535	24310	64830	61717	2931
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	28248	28154	29114	78482	77431	1051
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	48020	48216	50113	102907	102635	272
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	58649	58504	60262	119398	113400	5998
BAKKEN	8-2022	10	13579	13430	27424	19488	17403	1902

• 38246, drl/A, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H,  Siverston, t--; cum 160K 1/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	16929	17046	22011	50223	49585	492
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	19800	19718	24489	44905	42722	2029
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	28635	28506	30925	78725	77671	1054
BAKKEN	10-2022	26	33148	33313	36059	67924	67744	180
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	46334	46272	53950	104753	99491	5262
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	15385	15216	19250	29157	26038	2845

• 38247, drl/drl, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5H,Siverson, t--; cum 104K 1/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	38216	38389	39472	87766	86754	230
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	50121	50014	46110	104576	98677	5219
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	15201	15034	17606	26615	23768	2597

• 38248, drl/A, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-15H, Siverston, t--; cum 143K 1/23;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	15850	15958	22584	37347	36856	366
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	18479	18370	25284	36582	34792	1652
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	22087	22007	29049	60808	59994	814
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	34560	34691	45321	73388	73194	194
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	40182	40115	48551	85179	80900	4279
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	12157	12024	17162	20609	18405	2011

The Ovintiv Kramer Wells

The wells:

• 38239, 3,625, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-11HLW, Siverston, t--; cum 109K 10/22;
• 38244, 2,128, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-3H, Siverston, t--; cum 108K 10/22;
• 38245, 4,611, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H, Siverston, t--; cum 120K 10/22;
• 38246, 2,913, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H, Siverston, t--; cum 95K 10/22;
• 38248, 2,291, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-15H, Siverston, t--; cum 87K 10/22;
• 38247, drl/drl, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-5H, Siverston, t--; cum 104K 10/22;
  
• 38240, drl/NC, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-1HLW, Siverston, t--; cum 117K 10/22;
• 38241, drl/drl, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-12H, Siverston, t--; cum 121K 10/22;
• 38242, drl/drl, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-2H, Siverston, t--; cum 117K 10/22;
• 38243, drl/drl, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-13H, Siverston, t--; cum 107K 10/22;
• 22390, on one of the Kramer pads, 1,252, Ovintiv, Lund 26-18SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 182K 10/22;

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- March 22, 2023

Hope springs eternal, link here:

Gasoline demand soars, link here:

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $69.42.

Natural gas: $2.218.

Thursday, March 23, 2023: 76 for the month: 238 for the quarter, 238 for the year
39107, conf, Kraken, Rose 16-21 4H,

Wednesday, March 22, 2023: 75 for the month: 237 for the quarter, 237 for the year
39165, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 14-5HSL1,
39106, conf, Kraken, Rose 16-21 3H,
38442, conf, Hess, EN-Sable-157-93-3534H-3,

RBN Energy: could Canada's emerging renewable diesel replace US imports?

The buzz and activity around renewable diesel (RD), a chemically identical “drop-in” replacement for traditional petroleum-based diesel, continues to grow. The goals with RD, which is produced from renewable feedstocks, are to reduce the need for petroleum and to lower life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — critical steps in meeting climate agendas in many countries. Canada recently enacted legislation designed to promote the domestic production of RD as part of a broader emissions-reduction strategy. In today’s RBN blog, we take a tour of the newly emerging RD production sector in Canada and examine whether it could one day replace imports from the U.S.

The world’s push to lessen its dependence on petroleum-based fuels remains unrelenting. From both a climate perspective and a desire for greater self-reliance, many nations have been attempting to reduce their petroleum dependence by increasing efforts to produce more homegrown fuels — literally, in RD’s case, given that its primary feedstocks are the oils derived from agricultural products such as canola and soybeans. [Think North Dakota.]