Monday, October 14, 2024

23 And Me -- An Update -- The Atlantic -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48582DNA.

Link here.

From the linked article, the lede:

23andMe is not doing well. Its stock is on the verge of being delisted. It shut down its in-house drug-development unit last month, only the latest in several rounds of layoffs.
Last week, the entire board of directors quit, save for Anne Wojcicki, a co-founder and the company’s CEO.
Amid this downward spiral, Wojcicki has said she’ll consider selling 23andMe—which means the DNA of 23andMe’s 15 million customers would be up for sale, too. 23andMe’s trove of genetic data might be its most valuable asset.
For about two decades now, since human-genome analysis became quick and common, the A’s, C’s, G’s, and T’s of DNA have allowed long-lost relatives to connect, revealed family secrets, and helped police catch serial killers. Some people’s genomes contain clues to what’s making them sick, or even, occasionally, how their disease should be treated. For most of us, though, consumer tests don’t have much to offer beyond a snapshot of our ancestors’ roots and confirmation of the traits we already know about. (Yes, 23andMe, my eyes are blue.) 23andMe is floundering in part because it hasn’t managed to prove the value of collecting all that sensitive, personal information. And potential buyers may have very different ideas about how to use the company’s DNA data to raise the company’s bottom line. This should concern anyone who has used the service.

Cramer's Last Hour, Part 1 -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48581B.

Cramer's last hour: : a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's last hour on CNBC.    

Cramer's last hour: never fails to impress. Tonight -- Micron. Time to do another deep dive on Micron.  

Insider Monkey: Micron


Ticker, micron:

Clearing off the desktop:

  • Google inks deal for nuclear energy. Link here.
  • North Dakota inks deal with South Korea for energy. Link here.
  • Nvidia has sold out its supply of Blackwell GPUs for the next 12 months. Link here.
  • Nobel prize in economics: why the US has done so well. Link here.
  • Starbucks: new CEO says its customers can afford the high prices. Will discontinue promotions, discounts. Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Upstart It -- The Rest Of The Story -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48580TECH.

Upstart Holdings. Wait for it.

Ticker:

The rest of the story! Up 150% in the last six months!


There's a lesson here.

Three New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; And, MRO Is Reporting Monster Wells In Four Bears -- October 14, 2024

WTI: $70.85.

Active rigs: 38.

Three new permits, #41239 - #41241, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hunt Oil Company
  • Field: Clear Water (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hunt Oil has permits for three Clearwater wells, SWSE 13-157-90, 
      • to be sited 250 FSL and at the following distances FEL: 1795; 1765; and, 1735.

Five permits renewed:

  • Petro-Hunt: two Arsenal Federal permits, Charbonneau, McKenzie; and, three Clark Griswold Federal, Boxcar Butte, McKenzie County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

  • 40161, 6,437, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH,
  • 40236, 1,098, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 5-4-9H,
  • 40353, 1,190, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 4-4-9H,
  • 40375, 2,000, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 6-4-9H,

The MRO Robertson USA pad:

The MRO Robertson USA pad has eleven wells in various degrees of completion. These are four of them. What is happening on this pad is quite remarkable and seldom seen in the Bakken:

  • 40161, Robertson USA, first month's production extrapolates to 87,956 bbls crude oil over 30 days!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242938635386464048250479503067
BAKKEN7-2024205863758532561846216761600423
  • 40166, Harrison USA, first month's production extrapolates to 130,368 bbls crude oil over 30 days!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242840824408602626350491503187
BAKKEN7-2024317538975394543308889788081609
BAKKEN6-2024521728215881687822921228217

  • 40162, Tartar USA:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242745716457873058957014568198
BAKKEN7-20243110178910160776312135195133944934

  • 40160, Susie USA, first month's production extrapolates to 73,958 bbls crude oil over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202430549075486236844705147027310
BAKKEN7-2024204939449305354924220441826282

The MRO Robertson USA Pad In Four Bears Oil Field -- More Of The Wells Are Starting To Report -- October 14, 2024

 Locator: 48579B.

This was one of four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed today:

  • 40161, 6,437, MRO, Robertson USA 14-20TFH.

The MRO Robertson USA pad:

The MRO Robertson USA pad has eleven wells in various degrees of completion. These are four of them. What is happening on this pad is quite remarkable and seldom seen in the Bakken:

  • 40161, Robertson USA, first month's production extrapolates to 87,956 bbls crude oil over 30 days!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242938635386464048250479503067
BAKKEN7-2024205863758532561846216761600423
  • 40166, Harrison USA, first month's production extrapolates to 130,368 bbls crude oil over 30 days!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242840824408602626350491503187
BAKKEN7-2024317538975394543308889788081609
BAKKEN6-2024521728215881687822921228217

  • 40162, Tartar USA:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20242745716457873058957014568198
BAKKEN7-20243110178910160776312135195133944934

  • 40160, Susie USA, first month's production extrapolates to 73,958 bbls crude oil over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202430549075486236844705147027310
BAKKEN7-2024204939449305354924220441826282

Personal Investing -- Rambling -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48578PERSINV.

So much for that "magnificent 7" being "the" market. I don't see it. Technology (XLK)  vs Industrials (XLI) over the past full year:

Exhibit A: CAT. 

Market cap:

  • AAPL (#1): $3.52 trillion
  • NVDA (#2): $3.39 trillion

At the close: records, records, records --

  • NVDA closes at a new high
  • Dow: a new record; above 43,000 for the first time
  • S&P 500: a new record; trending toward 5,900
  • QCOM: up almost 5%
  • still volatile; VIX at 20

There are several strong tailwinds for investors:

  • inter-generational wealth transfer; this is short-term, medium-term, and long-term; link here.
    • the driver no one ever mentions: RMDs
      • one might ask the question: why do we not see any RMD marketing?
  • the fourth industrial revolution: long-term -- the revolution has just begun!
    • spin-offs from the AI revolution: short-term
      • think US space program, particularly computer technology and rocket propellants 
    • will positively affect agriculture sector -- precise planting, weeding, fertilizing, harvesting
    • huge moats: if you thought regional railroads had/have quasi-monopolies, it's even "worse" for AI companies
      • exhibit A: quick -- name four GPU foundries (not designers, but fab companies)
      • exhibit B: quick -- name two companies that make EUV lithography machines
  • a Trumpian shut-down of government due to an infectious disease -- never again
    • retailers learned
    • but this is even bigger than a Trumpian shut-down: retailers are learning about risks
      • just-in-time ordering
      • single-site source
    • exhibit A: Belk
  • effect of influencers: short-term and of increasing importance
    • this includes celebrity CEOs: Jamie Dimon, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk
      • exhibit A: quick -- name the CEOs of Ford, Starbucks, Intel
  • migration: within the US, inter-regional; globally, to the US
    • within the US: from Midwest to southeast US
    • within the US: from Florida and California to Texas
  • e-commerce: US consumer change in buying patterns
    • exhibit A: Walmart. In the grocery section of our local Walmart yesterday, a Sunday, there seemed to be more Walmart employees stocking on-line basket orders than "actual" in-store customers.
  • the retail pie is not a zero-sum game.
  • energy: globally, the US has won 
    • has won on accessibility; availability; dispatchable; cost.
    • exhibit A: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box: nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, oil
      • no other region or country can say the same 
      • exhibit A: quick -- name three regions in the world that have "unlimited" oil / natural gas -- I can name three, but the third hardly counts;
  • regional conflicts: won't occur on US soil:
    • compare with Europe, Ukraine, Koreas, China-Taiwan
    • but US military-industrial complex as good as ever
  • demographics:
    • immigration a huge positive for US -- documented and un-documented
    • compare with Japan: no immigration

Screenshots for stories above:

Belk, it's not even Halloween yet:

The retail pie not a zero-sum game:


Moats: which begs the question -- why has the EU not threatened to break up ASML? It has a monopoly.

Agriculture fertilizing, the four R's:

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APPLE

APPLE: one step closer to subscription-model annual update! Whoo-hoo! Subscription-model? You say? Yes, folks will be able to subscribe at x-dollars per month to get annual upgrade to new phone with trade-in of the previous year's model. I figure less than $50 / month will buy you a new high-end phone each year.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48577CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.    

MNF: Buffalo vs New York Jets. Link here.

The market: both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit all-time highs. Information technology leads S&P sectors.  

Giddy: the talking heads on CNBC this morning almost getting too giddy. 

Presidential politics: this is the consensus --

  • the outcome is way, way too close to call
  • most likely:
    • Trump wins, investors will be happy; spending and debt likely to increase significantly;
    • Harris wins but GOP holds the US Senate and the US House; investors will be happy;

Chart of the day: ASML. Again, this was almost a no-brainer. Up $28 today. Ticker, 5 days:


Amer Sports: I'm not interested, but some folks may want to take a look. Ticker: AS.

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The Book Page

Today. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- What's In Your Swag Bag -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48576CRAMER.

The market: the Dow just turned green! Despite BA and CAT. S&P 500 has been at a record high since the opening. 

EVs: the EV story continues to fall apart. Link here.

EVs: the above comes on top of Ford's new Power Promise marketing push. Two-thousand dollars loss on each EV sold -- drops right to the bottom line. The "cheaper" the EV, the smaller the margin. If a US automaker is selling an EV for less than $30,000, profit margin must be zero; probably even negative after taking out "ramp-up costs." Right now, with "ramp-up costs," every EV sold by a US manufacturer is losing money. Needs to be fact-checked.

EVs: Ford's Power Promise -- way too little, way too late. This should have been part of the "swag" from the very beginning starting years ago.  

From the blog, September 15, 2024:

Locator: 48593EVS.

Link here.

Biden, Harris, Trump will put a stop to Chinese EV imports. 

From the linked article, the lede:

Jim Farley had just returned from China. What the Ford Motor chief executive found during the May visit made him anxious: The local automakers were pulling away in the electric-vehicle race.

In an early-morning call with fellow board member John Thornton, an exasperated Farley unloaded.

The Chinese carmakers are moving at light speed, he told Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs executive who spent years as a senior banker in China. They are using artificial intelligence and other tech in cars that is unlike anything available in the U.S. These Chinese EV makers are using a low-cost supply base to undercut the competition on price, offering slick digital features and aggressively expanding to overseas markets.

“John, this is an existential threat,” Farley said.

For years, Tesla was the main source of consternation for auto CEOs trying to tackle a transition to electric vehicles. Now, it is the rapid rise of nimble automakers in China that have rattled executives from Detroit to Germany and Japan. Even Tesla’s Elon Musk recently called the Chinese the “most competitive” carmakers in the world.
Long, long article.

I think the entire EV story is fascinating.

I found the closing paragraphs intriguing.
Farley and Field huddled around a laptop, looking at a spreadsheet of line items for the future midsize electric pickup. The goal: figure out how to extract $800 in cost.

The team had overachieved on the driving range by 16 miles, Field explained, which meant they could wring out about $500 by shrinking the battery. Finding the rest of the savings would be a slog. Would it really need a heated steering wheel? Maybe the front trunk was expendable, one of the execs suggested.

Before long, Farley worried aloud that they might be cutting too many corners, and that “the product could end up being really sh—y.” He suggested to Field an informal process: How about they slap sticky notes all over the prototype to hash out what should go?
In an age of ChaptGPT and OpenAI, the best and the brightest are using yellow stickies. 

But most intriguing -- "the team had overachieved on the driving range by 16 miles" which means they could "wring out about $500 by shrinking the battery." 

$70,000 vehicles and they're talking a cost savings of $500 by shrinking the battery. Say what? 

But worse, seeming to get excited by increasing the battery range by 16 miles. Really? 

The one thing that EV auto manufacturers will never be able to undo: the fact that EVs are tethered vehicles. 

*****************************
Top Ten Reasons To Avoid The EV

Top ten:
  • a solution to a problem that doesn't exist
  • tethered vehicle
  • tethered vehicle
  • tethered vehicle
  • tethered vehicle
  • tethered vehicle
  • too expensive 
  • infrastructure lacking (possibly getting worse, not improving)
  • 40% of Americans live in apartments
  • don't understand the technology
"Range anxiety" doesn't make the top ten list.

How to market EVs:
  • extremely fun to drive
  • comprehensive entertainment package
    • CarPlay
    • Sirius
    • Apple GUI
  • sporty; really sporty
  • iPhone 16 part of the overall package at no extra cost
  • free maintenance for ten years
  • ten-year all-inclusive warranty
  • insurance coverage provided by dealer
  • fast charging installation to be provided by dealer
  • never mention:
    • cost
    • range
    • electricity 
    • batteries
Make the EV a must-have sports car. Money is not an issue. Exhibit A.


It needs to be the entire package: EV auto manufacturers are not just selling a tethered vehicle; they’re also selling “lifestyle,” for lack of a better word.The folks buying $100,000 Cybertrucks don't care about pesky details like range, infrastructure -- they are into a “lifestyle”: they see and want to be seen. They want a swag bag with their EV.
 

This is the EV swag bag:
  • comprehensive entertainment package
  • iPhone 16 part of the overall package at no extra cost
  • free maintenance for ten years
  • ten-year all-inclusive warranty
  • insurance coverage provided by dealer
What’s in your swag bag?

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Wow -- The Market -- Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- October 14, 2024

Locator: 48575CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

NFL: First Take. A great way to start the day after Sunday. And then MNF tonight. Will Mike McCarthy last the season? Jerry Jones over-spent on two players and doesn't have the money to make changes. Resting on his laurels? Zeke. Link here. Carried the ball eight times yesterday. Gained 17 yards; averaged 2.1 yards / carry.

But now the market: the quotes coming from JPM and GS and the Fed's Kashkari are shocking! Shocking!  Link here.


S&P 500
: a new record. The only reason the Dow is negative is because of CAT and BA. Otherwise.

Magnificant 7; surging. Again. Even AAPL participating.

BRK-B: completely missed this on Friday -- up $10 / share? Down today but up 34% for the year. 

WTI: my energy portfolio. I don't even want to talk about it. Link here:


Of course this is an ad, but:

a) it catches my attention; and,
b) it's really, really scary.
Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Columbus Day — October 14, 2024

Locator: 48574INVESTING.

From Schwab today --

Monday, October 14, 2024

This is a federal/bank holiday in observance of Columbus Day.

U.S. equity, options, and futures markets will be open but it’s a non-settlement day. 

All trades placed on Friday, October 11, 2024, will settle on Tuesday, October 15, 2024.

All fixed income and bond markets will be closed.

Requests to move money (MoneyLink, wire transfer, check requests, and IRA distributions) received after the standard cut-off times on Friday, October 11, 2024, will not be processed until Tuesday, October 15, 2024.