Random Comment On US Natural Gas Inventories -- June 17, 2019

A reader shows us again how incredible the natural gas "fill rate" has been so far this year. See this post for background.

How fast is the natural gas fill rate this year? Really fast.

For the week ending March 22, 2019 -- just a few weeks ago, US natural gas inventories were 20% below inventories one year earlier.

By June 7, 2019, most recent data available, US natural gas inventories are now 10% above those of last year.

There's a reason President Trump is unhappy with Europe linking with Russia for natural gas (Nord Stream 2). The US needs markets for all the natural gas it is producing.

The Nation's Natural Gas Fill Rate -- This May Be A Record-Setting Year -- June 16, 2019

This is quite incredible: spend some time on this one, from a reader, regarding the nation's natural gas fill rate:

"The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "

We've become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a record year... 

This came in as a comment to the post this past week regarding the NG fill rate. 

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Fairly Steep -- June 13, 2019

Updates

June 17, 2019: another way to look at the quickness of the fill rate -- see comments -- 

Another way of looking at how fast inventories recovered this year would be to compare them to last year... the storage report for the week ending March 22nd showed 2019 supplies 20.5% below those of 2018, but as you've noted above, by June 7th, 2019 supplies were 10% above those of last year...  

June 16 2019: see first comment -- reader suggests just how "steep" this NG fill rate is --

Your headline should read "fairly steepest."

Here's what I have: "The 981 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been added to storage over the past 11 weeks has been the largest injection of gas into storage on record for any similar period this early in the injection season, probably about double the average 11 week build of the past decade, as the 712 billion cubic feet that were added during the same 11 weeks of 2014 was the only year that even appeared close... "

We've become accustomed to triple digit injections, but scanning the recent decade's spreadsheet, I find that in most years we only had one triple digit inventory build all summer, most often in the fall. The only exceptions were 2014 and 2015, and the June curve in 2014 was the only one as steep as the May curve this year ... so we may be on our way to a record year... 

Original Post

Link here.

A pretty steep curve. Inventory 10% over that of a year ago.

Z4 also notes "near Mexican export and LNG export records."

Forecast almost perfect: 102 vs 111 and I had actually seen a forecast of 108 yesterday, so 102 not all that far off.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report; Unremarkable -- May 30, 2019

Link here. Pending; to be released at 10:00 a.m. CT.

• US crude oil inventory change, weekly: (yesterday API reported a draw of almost 6 million bbls) -- the EIA reports that the weekly change was almost flat -- the change was a meaningless draw of 0.3 million bbls -- again, the false precision .... 0.3 million / 476.5 million = 0.000629 or 0.063%
• US crude oil inventory, weekly: 476.5 million bbls; about 5% above the five-year average
• Refinery operating capacity: finally, above 90% but not by much -- at 91.2%;
• gasoline: inventories are about 1% above the 5-year average, having increased by 2.2 million bbls
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million bbls and are about 5% below the 5-year average

Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5

Natural gas fill rate: from twitter, natural gas storage change, link here:

• storage fill of 114 bcf from previous week
• vs estimate of 98
• previous 100

A sharper rise than last year but still a smooth climb.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- May 23, 2019

Link here. (See first comment: reader suggests comparing with other data at this link.)

From a reader's comment earlier in the week:

Injections for each week of 2019 since March 29 was greater than the injection for the same week of 2014, of 2015, of 2016, of 2017, and of 2018, now for seven weeks in a row...that might be some kind of record.

Small print:

• most recent injection: 100 Bcf
• stocks were 137 Bcf higher than last year
• stocks are 274 Bcf below the five-year average

Natual Gas Fill Coming Along Just Fine -- April 26, 2019

Updates

 
April 27, 2019: see first comment -- we begin a "new year."

I hadn't even noticed that the sign had already changed on the year-over-year relationship. We now have 55 bcf MORE in storage than a year ago; 4 weeks ago we had 285 bcf LESS YoY. Last year was cool & withdrawals continued for the first three weeks of April.

Later, 10:00 p.m. Central Time: it appears that "steep" slope is real. See first comment:

I haven't looked at the data this week yet, but last week I had the 92 billion cubic feet injection as the largest April injection ever, especially notable coming so early in the month, before the warmer late April weeks when the fill rate usually picks up. This week repeats that 92 bcf, so I would imagine we now may have topped the most ever added to storage in any April, and that's only as of the 19th, with 11 more days to go...

That is truly amazing -- a huge shout-out to the engineers, geologists, and roughnecks. Be sure to follow "focus on fracking" for weekly updates.

Original Post

Link here.

Re-Posting: LNG Export Terminals In The News -- Making America Great -- April 19, 2019

LNG export: FERC approves two LNG export projects. Some of this may have been previously reported:

• Houston-based Tellurian Inc.'s Driftwood project on the Louisiana coast
• San Diego-based Sempra Energy's Port Arthur LNG

This is why this story is important: "FERC is making a lot of headway on processing LNG applications in a more efficient manner, and I’m proud of the work that we are doing," FERC Chairman Neil Chatterjee said in an April 18 press release.

This won't happen under a Biden, Beto, Buttigeig, or Bernie administration. Scary. Pocahontas, herself, has said she will stop issuing new oil and gas permits on federal land. Really scary.

Florida LNG project: hits milestone. Rigzone. Data points:

• Eagle LNG Partners
• $500-million project
• final environmental impact statement from FERC
• final step in the environmental review process before the final federal authorization decision deadline
• the developer initiated the FERC process in December, 2014
• LNG export projects tracked here
• I don't recall the Florida project on that list, and I don't see it now, but I may have missed it

******************************

Natural Gas Fill Rate

I was snookered this past year being worried about the natural gas fill rate.

American roughnecks managed just fine, thank you.

*********************************

Meanwhile In Mexico

From SeekingAlpha:

TransCanada and IEnova's (Sempra Energy) Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline to add U.S. natural gas export capacity to Mexico should come online by the end of June.

The Texas-to-Mexico pipeline had been expected to come online by mid-February but technical and other problems have delayed the project by more than a year.

Sur de Texas will connect with Enbridge's 2.6B cf/day Valley Crossing pipeline; once the entire pipeline system comes online, it will comprise the largest cross-border gas pipeline by volume.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 11, 2019

Link here.

This is something I did not see predicted. In hindsight, it seems like it should have been easily predicted.

Look how fast the "curve" is turning.

It's hard to say whether the rate of "fill" will exceed that of one year ago -- very steep a year ago (once it started to turn), but one can see that the curve turned positive sooner this year than last year. In retrospect, that should have been predicted. I completely missed it.

**************************** 

What Condition My Condition Is In

Catching Up On Graphics -- Nothing To See Here -- April 7, 2019

Ever since I began blogging about the Bakken I've been fascinated watching the the price of oil (whatever that means with 200+ varieties: WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, etc) and the various metrics that analysts use to track oil. Nothing seems to make sense. But that's fine. It's all fun.

Another metric: weekly US days of supply of crude oil.

I used to think that metric was important. Silly me.

US crude oil supply increasing. Price of crude oil climbing. Price of gasoline definitely climbing.

******************************

Catching Up

After posting that graphic above, I realized I had forgotten to post two graphics, both of which I used to religiously post weekly.

Natural gas fill rate, link here, and so the year begins again:

That graph always reminds me of this song:

Wheel, Jerry Jeff Walker Gasoline demand, link here, one word: boring.

****************************

The TV Cartoon Page

Favorite television cartoon: "Bob's Burgers."

Sophia's parents will not allow her to watch it. But it's my favorite, and Sophia knows it. 

*******************************

Flashback: It Was Jeb's Race To Lose

July 22, 2015: this seems so long ago.

It's Not The Headline That's Surprising

There are three story lines with this story. The headline: Hillary losing ground in battleground states. That headline is interesting but not as surprising as "the rest of the story." This is what is surprising:

• look at the spread head-to-head
• this is not against a generic "Republican" but against specific names (each with a lot of baggage)

But most surprising:

• it's being reported on ... CNN.

This is Jeb Bush's race to lose, and he will lose if Trump goes the Perot route.

*******************************

In the graphic above, does anyone even remember "Walker"? I don't. 

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- March 28, 2019 -- Thoughts On The Apple iPad

************************************

Everybody Knew

The back-up singers make this song. 

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

**************************************

Back To Business

Natural gas fill-rate, link here:

See Platt's analysis here.

***************************************

The Apple Page

A reader asked me my opinion on which iPad to buy. My reply, curious if anyone has other thoughts.

An iPad. Wow, that's a tough one.

I use mine all the time mostly just to read; they are not particularly good for work (blogging) or replying to lots of e-mail. But to lie in bed and just surf the net, I really enjoy mine. I used to think I couldn't live without an iPad, but not so much any more. Mostly just reading at night (but they can do so much more -- so you will really enjoy it).

Definitely not:

• iPad Pro -- way more than you need
• iPad mini -- way too small

So,

• iPad Air, or
• iPad (billed as the "most popular")

iPad Air: 10.5 inch -- large, but good size; and this is their "newest" product --

• $499 for 64 GB
• $649 for 256 GB

If it's only for reading, not much work, you really don't need much storage, so you could get by with 64 GB but in this day and age, that's not much storage.

iPad:  9.7 inch -- this is what I have; I think the 10.5 inch (above) would be better; and it's their very oldest iPad model

• $329 for 32 GB
• $429 for 128 GB

So, that pretty much ends the discussion.

If I was/were going to get a new iPad, it would be the iPad Air, either $499 for 64GB, or $649 for 256 GB.

Either one would be fine.

I would go with the $649, 256 GB, iPad Air.

More storage space for movies/photos if traveling with the grandchildren.

The bad news: the attachable keyboard ($159) and the pencil ($129) are extra.

You don't need the keyboard: there is one on the screen, like a cellphone, but if you do a lot of work with iPad at the table, then maybe a keyboard later on, but not now.

I also wouldn't get the pencil now either, wait and see if you would really use it.

My biggest concern: I've grown up with Apple so it's second nature for me to use any of their products. It might take some time to get used to a new system, but wow, on the road, traveling, great for photos, movies and surfing the net.

Which reminds me: I would get "wi-fi" only. I would not spend the extra $200 or whatever it is for wi-fi + cellular. I don't think you need cellular. I don't buy any more products with cellular. I don't like the monthly bill. And I can find wi-fi almost anywhere.

My cellphone is all I need when I can't find wi-fi.

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- Have We Turned The Corner? -- March 22, 2019

In all the excitement of yesterday's stock market, we completely forgot to post the weekly natural gas fill/withdrawal graph. It certainly looks as if we might have turned the corner. If so, pretty awesome -- huge shout-out to the nation's natural gas companies and their employees.

Watch for in-depth analysis at this site on Sunday. 

Link here. 

Mind The Gap -- March 14, 2019

Updates

March 18, 2019: See first comment. Most of what I wrote this week was just a regurgitation of natural gas stats accessed through the natural gas storage report page. Key points were that this was the largest natural gas withdrawal on record for the month of March (but not by a lot; there was also a 198 bcf and a 192 bcf March draw in recent years) and that with our supplies now 359 billion cubic feet below where they were on the same date in 2018, we have to add an average of at least 10 billion cubic feet more natural gas to storage each week for the rest of this year than we did last year to avoid going into next winter in worse shape than we did this one...

April should afford us the opportunity to catch up, though, since last April was unusually cool. Anything close to normal temperatures, and injections should start April 1st.

More at this link.

Original Post 

Link here. In addition, we should see a nice in-depth analysis of this on Sunday, March 17, 2019.  Hey, isn't that St Patrick's Day? Sunday? Well, that's a bummer. Need to celebrate Saturday, starting about noon, I suppose.

Now, back to natural gas.

Comments later, but the current "gap" is the widest in recent memory.

Natural Gas Inventory -- March 7, 2019

Note -- as of March 1, 2019, link here:

• stocks of natural gas were 243 Bcf less than a year ago at this time
• stocks of natural gas were 464 Bcf below the five-year average (and the five-year average is dropping)

Weekly Natural Gas Fill/Draw -- February 21, 2019

Weekly natural gas fill/draw, link here.

The winter of 2018 - 2019 was the transition year. A number of federal and state policy decisions over the years led to the record low natural gas inventories. The country seems to have adjusted. I assume that from here on out we will be fine.

Natural Gas -- 2018-2019 -- Dodged A Bullet -- Starting To Build -- February 14, 2019

Link here.

Natural Gas Draw -- Weekly Data -- February 7, 2019

Updates

February 10, 2019: see first comment --

While the EIA reports that "total working gas is within the five-year historical range", that's because the 5-year reference period includes 2014, which saw multiple outbreaks of the polar vortex, with a withdrawal of 990 billion cubic feet over 4 weeks in February that helped drive that year's natural gas supplies to the lowest on record by the end of March...

We certainly don't expect to approach that kind of cold anymore this year, but the temperatures after January of last year were not exceptional, and yet we still approached the current heating season with our natural gas supplies at the lowest level in 15 years...

Since our natural gas supplies are 6.4% below those of a year ago as of this week, it will take smaller withdrawals through the remainder of this winter and/or larger inventory building this spring and fall to avoid entering the winter of 2020 in the same or worse shape than we entered this one...

That fact isn't lost on natural gas traders, who are still pricing natural gas for January 2020 delivery more than 15% higher than the price of the front month contract for natural gas today...

Later, 12:44 p.m. CT: this is an epiphany for me. Years ago it was an epiphany for me when I realizd the importance of the difference between light oil and heavy oil (99% of Americans have no clue).

Now, a second epiphany. The EIA graphic on natural gas, to some extent is irrelevant. What is important with regard to natural gas is "regional," not national.

See this post: ConEd may run out of natural gas. Has announced a moratorium on new natural gas hook-ups in Westchester County, NYC.

Original Post

Linked here.

We're through the worse. Everything held. A new five-year graph will evolve, shifted downward. A fascinating year, to say the least.

Natural Gas Update -- January 31, 2019

Natural gas, from Platts:

US natural gas in storage decreased 173 Bcf to 2.197 Tcf in the week that ended January 25, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday.

The withdrawal was well below the expectations of an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts, which called for a 197 Bcf pull. The draw was completely outside of the range of survey responses. The lowest response was for a 176 Bcf withdrawal.

The withdrawal was considerably above the 126 Bcf pull reported in the corresponding week in 2018 as well as the five-year average draw of 150 Bcf, according to EIA data.
As a result, stocks were 14 Bcf, or 0.6%, under the year-ago level of 2.211 Tcf and 328 Bcf, or 13%, below the five-year average of 2.525 Tcf.

Natural gas futures on the news: dropped 2 cents per million BTU. Why? Because the worst is over and the "grid" held.

****************************
The Word Page

First, answering the two questions posed earlier:

• The definition of ophiologist? One who studies a branch of herpetology concerned with the study of snakes.
• Extra credit if you know the only movie ever to have used that word. The Lady Eve (1941).

I vividly remember the day we learned about this subject in graduate school, but the professor used a different word, not ophiologist. 

Best quotes from the movie (link to follow):

********************

Charles : And I have no right to be in your cabin.
Jean : Why?
Charles : I'm married.
Jean : But so am I, darling. So am I.

********************

Charles : Do you think they're dancing anyplace on board?
Jean : Don't you think we ought to go to bed?
Charles : You're certainly a funny girl for anybody to meet who's just been up the Amazon for a year.
Jean : Good thing you weren't up there two years.

********************

Jean : What were you doing up the Amazon?
Charles : Looking for *******. I'm an ophiologist.
Jean : I thought you were in the beer business.
Charles : Beer? Ale!
Jean : What's the difference?
Charles : Between beer and ale?
Jean : Yes.
Charles : What I am trying to say is - only I'm not a poet, I'm an ophiologist - I've always loved you. I mean, I've never loved anyone but you. Charles : My father'd burst a blood vessel if he heard you say that. There's a big difference. Ale's sort of fermented on the top or something, and beer's fermented on the bottom, or maybe it's the other way around. There's no similarity at all. You see, the trouble with being descended from a brewer, no matter how long ago he brewed it, or whatever you call it, you're supposed to know all about something you don't give a hoot about.

Getting Ready For The Super Bowl -- January 31, 2019

Super Bowl: Continuing with the best of The Big Lebowski quotes:

7. Jackie Treehorn Presents. The Dude. Maude Lebowsi. In Gutterballs.
6. Strikes and gutters, ups and downs.
5. Dude, let's go bowling.

Natural gas fill-rate/withdrawal: link here -- so far, except for spot shortages, it looks like the natural gas situation "held":

Cold. I talked about this the other day.

When I was growing up in Williston, ND, we did not have much money. But I never once heard my parents complain about the cost of electricity (to heat the house in the winter). We never experienced a black-out or loss of power in the winter due to too much demand. We never once worried whether we would have electricity. We were never, never, ever advised to turn our thermostats down to conserve energy. Williston, ND, up in the northwest corner of the state seldom got above zero degrees during the month of February. It was certainly as cold as anything the US is experiencing this week.

That was back in the 1950's -- less than a decade after WWII. And now, 60+ years later with all that technology and a glut of natural gas in the US we are unable to meet power demands for a cold spell that will last less than 72 hours. 

And yet, these two headlines (among many). From CBSLocal, Minneapolis, probably not excelling today:

From Bloomberg:

The three largest automakers in the U.S. suspended operations, or dialed them back, at several plants on the coldest day of the year after a fire at a natural gas facility in Southeast Michigan drastically reduced how much heating fuel the utility could supply.

CMS Energy Corp.’s Consumers Energy utility sends gas to about 4.1 million people in 45 counties in the region, including much of the auto manufacturing sector, according to its website.

The fire occurred in a facility that accounts for about 64 percent of the utility’s gas supply, and company officials were urging all customers -- residential, industrial and commercial -- to cut back on their use of the fuel.

When I was growing up in North Dakota, energy was available, dependable, dispatchable, and affordable.

We now have an energy source that is no longer dependable, dispatchable or affordable. So what happened?

Hillary: we'll put a lot of coal miners out of work.  

And the sad thing: neither the politicians who legislated this nor the utilities who promoted this will be held accountable.

****************************

For The Archives

The Three-Day Winter Of 2019

Had it not been for global warming, it might have lasted four days.

From SFGate:

Temperatures dove more than 30 degrees below zero Thursday morning in the Midwest in this polar vortex outbreak's last gasp, driving wind chills to dangerous levels and clobbering long-standing records.

After a bitter-cold morning with temperatures that sank all the way to minus-48 in northwest Minnesota, with wind chills down to minus-65, the air ostensibly "warmed" Wednesday afternoon, to readings such as minus-18 in Grand Forks, North Dakota, and minus-22 in Rockford, Illinois.

But it didn't take long into the late afternoon for the mercury to plummet again to readings well below minus-20, minus-30 and in some locations in north-central Minnesota, minus-40 by Thursday morning.

The cold snap is smashing all-time records in northern Illinois. Moline hit a new low late Wednesday night - the lowest temperature the city has ever recorded. The weather station at the Moline Quad-City Airport sent a reading of minus-29 degrees at 11:19 p.m., which was enough to break the record, and then continued to drop even further through the early-morning hours Thursday. As of 7 a.m., the lowest temperature Moline had reached was minus-33 degrees, a full five degrees lower than the old record of minus-28 set in 1996.

All I know is that it was much colder when I was growing up in Williston, ND, and I had to walk to school uphill both ways and in six-foot snow drifts.

And, as I replied to John Kemp, climate forecasting is even better. We know that the earth will be 2.7 degrees warmer one hundred years from now. Even bartenders-turned-congresswomen know that.