From Court TV To truTV -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46809STREAMING.

truTV: the "play-in" March Madness games are being televised on something called "truTV." 

I can't follow streaming / OTT  -- I thought oil companies were the champions when it came to obfuscation but the oil sector has nothing over streaming media. A quick history of truTV

• the channel was originally launched in 1991 as Court TV
• a joint venture between Time Warner, American Lawyer Media, Cablevision, NBC
• by 2005, Liberty Media and Time Warner had purchased ALM, Cablevision, and NBC's stake in Court TV
• 2006: Time Warner bought out Liberty's share for $375 million
• brought the channel under its Turner Broadcasting subsidiary -- 
• so we had:Court TV --> Turner Broadcasting --> Time Warner
• 2008: re-launched as TruTV
• marketed "caught on camera" programs as "actuality" television
• continued to carry "Court TV" as In Session until phased out in September, 2013
• in 2011: TruTV began to add occasional sports broadcasts from Turner Sports (renamed TNT Sports in 2023)
• October, 2014: TruTV pivoted again; focused on comedy-base reality series such as Impractical Jokers 
• March, 2024: began to focus on sports programming
• introduced a monthly block that features sports-related programming
• perfect timing for March Madness, 2024
• incorporated into new and upcoming TNT Sports rights such as MotoGP and NASCAR

Subscribers:

• January, 2016: 91 million households (78%) in the US
• June, 2023: 68.3 million households

You know, this sounds like a perfect network for LIV: crime, comedy and now clubs (golf clubs)

• The PGA: on NBC
• The LIV: on TruTv (or truTV)

I Almost Fell Out Of My Chair -- Am I Reading The Headlines Correctly? What Will California Do? March 19, 2024

Locator: 46808EVS.

AP link here.

Kicking the can down the road.

One word: unions.

It's an election year. 

This is bigger news than what the Fed will announce tomorrow. 

Tickers today:

• F: up 1% today; down slightly after hours;
• GM: up 1.7%; up slightly after hours:
• Stellantis: up over 1%; up slightly after hours

"Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once" -- Part 2 -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46807INV.

Link here to Part 1. 

This really isn't worthy of being called "Part 2," but if there's any "truth" to Part 1, then it's time to see if we can find anything that Warren Buffett might be up to.

Right now, google search news ticker BRK:

So, let's take a look. 

That "confidential" stock? Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Incredibly interesting process of elimination. Incredibly interesting.

So, no help, but an interesting article, nonetheless.

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Other

 We'll keep looking.

But tech doesn't seem to be Warren's thing.

"Everything Everywhere Happening All At Once" -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46806COMMENTARY.

Updates

March 20, 2024: Supply chain inflation. Exactly what I said below in the original post -- even the “80%.”

Original Post

Wow, wow, wow -- this has simply been amazing for investors -- "this": the first three months of this year.

This is like Wayne Gretzky: skating to where the puck is going.

So much is happening right now. The fog is beginning to clear. 

For me, while everyone has been focused on the Fed -- which has told us nothing about where the puck is headed -- I've been focused on one thing: my favorite chart. 

Like "the Bakken," Wall Street, Hollywood, etc., "my favorite chart" is a metonym. "My favorite chart" has to do with all the money waiting on the sidelines and where it's likely headed, not not just that money in the money market funds earning a paltry 4.5%.

It started with all that money "under the curve."

I first noted the phenomenon November 20, 2022.

That's when I knew, for investors, things had changed. What had changed? Simply this: huge amounts of money sloshing around. 

And simultaneously another observation / realization: inflation at 9% was not due to the government printing too much money; it simply can't happen that fast. Rather, that 9% inflation was due to something else. 

Inflation is simply too much money going after too few goods. 

That 9% inflation was due to two things: 80% (pick your own number; it's a wag) was due to supply chain disruption due to Covid-19; and, 20% (pick your own numbers; it's a wag) was due to something else. The 80% was transitory; the 20% was stickier, less transitory. 

In my book, 80% is much bigger than 20% and that's why I've always argued that that 9% inflation was transitory. It was. Well, at least 80% of that 9% inflation figure was transitory. The part that was less transitory, stickier, doesn't matter. And a lot of that stickier inflation is due to one-offs, like the price of used cars and the price of eggs -- neither having anything to do with the government printing money or the government printing money (those $1,500 stimulus checks). 

So, I observed two things in 2022 and to some extent perhaps, even earlier: a) that inflation would be transitory; and, b) there was a lot of money sloshing around.

The rest of this rambling will have to do with "a lot of money sloshing around" and not much, if anything about transitory inflation.

So, "a lot of money sloshing around."

I already mentioned that I noted "under-the-curve" money as far back as November, 2022.

But even before that something else. Some huge corporations had huge amounts of money sloshing around, notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire, Tim Cook's Apple, and many of the Big Oil companies. 

So, that's the first two examples of huge amounts of money sloshing around:

• "savings under the curve"; and,
• a few specific corporate coffers.

Earlier, I had already noticed "my favorite chart." August 23, 2021. I noted that earlier than I remember, LOL. How prescient. No one else seemed to talk much about it. Perhaps I didn't really make all that much of it until I saw "savings under the curve" and then connected the dots.

Okay, so now we have three biggies -- all that money sloshing around. 

• "savings under the curve"; 
• "my favorite chart"; and,
• Warren Buffett's and Tim Cook's cash hoard.

So, this was back in 2021 -- 2022. What was the rest of the world focused on back in 2021 -- 2022? The Fed. Inflation. Stagflation. Wow, that's all they talked about on CNBC.

I don't recall any discussion about all the money sloshing around. 

I saw that again today. One of the most amazing days ever on the market and what was CNBC's Brian Sullivan, "Last Call" -- the last business show of the day-- all worked up about? Whether the Fed will cut rates this year? 

I give up.

Whatever happened to the Apple - Google "Gemini" partnership? Yesterday.

Whatever happened to the Cramer - Huang AI interviews today? Today.

And Brian Sullivan is asking about the Fed rate again?

It gets tedious. 

A bigger story broke at the end of the day. 

Is anyone following Saudi Arabia? Three stories, in the last few days alone:

1. Saudi Aramco is considering buying the national Saudi airline, Saudia. SA must have a lot of money sloshing around:

2. Saudi Aramco wants TikTok. SA must have a lot of money sloshing around.

3. And now this, being posted everywhere: Saudi Arabia "fences off" $40 billion for AI. Yeah, SA has a lot of money sloshing around.

I'm going to stop there for now. 

But this changes everything -- adding all that Saudi money to the AI pot. 

Maybe we'll call this Part I.

Real movers and shakers are skating to where the puck is headed. And its not the Fed rate.

Minor Notes -- Waiting For Market Close -- Wow! What A Day! March 19, 2024

Locator: 46805B.

Texas: US Supreme declines to stop Texas from arresting illegal immigrants, but it's not a final decision (needs to be fact-checked). [Later: appellate court "reconvened," reversed earlier position, and we're back where we were -- Texas acting on its own is on hold.]

But interestingly, the US Supreme Court did not put a "stay" or a "hold" on Texas' law with regard to immigration. This takes us back to the US Civil War and fight between the federal government and states' rights. 

The book page: at one time I cared not for biographies. Now I love them but I only really care for biographies up until the individual becomes "famous." After that, little interest. What I enjoy reading is how an individual went from newborn to "famous." That's also true of "man," all of "man," not just a single individual.

Today, it's the "before" and "after" of WWII. Specifically, the Pentagon, and the transition from the end of WWII -- the Korean War -- the Philippines -- and then the Vietnam War. And how the Pentagon evolved taking espionage and counterespionage with it.

Source / the book this week: The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam, Max Boot, c. 2018. Notes here.

Market: S&P 500 hits yet another record intra-day high / close. At the close:

• in round numbers, next highs:
• Dow: 39,300 --> 39,500 --> 40,000
• S&P 500: 5,200 --> 5,300 --> 5,500
• NASDAQ: 16,450 --> 16,500 --> 17,000

Goldilocks: I find these numbers absolutely amazing. 

Always fully invested. I never hold cash; discussed before. Now that Schwab closes equity sales in 24 hours, investing has become even more efficient. In 2022 or thereabouts, I pivoted from energy to tech. Now, pivoting from tech to infrastructure (e.g., CAT) / energy (e.g., CHRD, NOG) / tech (e.g., AAPL, MSFT) -- a third each for new money. NOG is likely a short-term trade. No recommendations. See disclaimers. 

US Oil:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.20.

Active rigs: 41.

Six new permits, #440603 - #40608, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for six Danielle wells, SWSE 12-145-97, 
• to be sited 292 FSL and between 2212 FEL and 2392 FEL;

A well of interest:

• 18334, 1,343, Enerplus, Danielle 12-1H, Little Knife, t2/10; cum 243K 1/24; stimulated 2/18/20; 35,937 (no typo) bbls; proppant, 1,633,364 lbs (no typo); cased hole.
  

Two permits renewed:

• 36271, Hess, AN-Double Bar V, Antelope, McKenzie; and,
• 33056, Oasis, MHA, Heart Butte, Dunn;

Seven permits canceled:

• Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Riley Anne (all six); Williams County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36575, 1,023, XTO, Tong 34X-9D, 
• some earlier "AB" issues; apparently resolved; a 20' target zone was chosen within the middle member, with target beginning 20' below the base off the upper Bakken shale and approximately 20' to 28' above the top of the lower Bakken shale -- thus a seam of about 40' to 48.'.
  
• 36576, n/d, XTO, Tong 34X-9G,
• 36577, n/d, XTO, Tong 34X-9C,

All That Hand-Wringing About High Interest Rates -- Housing Sentiment Surges -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46804B.

We'll get to this later. Taking a break. "Everything everywhere is happening all at once" and I need to take a break.

LOL.

Remember, women's March Madness starts tonight on truTV and men's March Madness begins tomorrow.  

truTV:

 

So, it's going to show up on Amazon Fire TV. Whoo-hoo. I've found very little that I can't find on Hulu / Amazon Fire, excptting, of course such walled-off / moteed entities like Netflix.

The PGA: The most wonderful observation coming out of the PGA's Players Tournament this past weekend: not once was the purse mentioned -- well, until it was all over and for the purpose of this observation -- unlike the LIV where it's all about money. The golfers at the Players were playing for a trophy; the purse was trivial for all but the winner compared to what LIV pays. And with "no cut" at LIV tournaments, players don't even have to be particularly concerned about the first round. But I digress: the PGA golfers are playing for the trophy and a place in history. 

I'll come back to the housing story later.

Most Interesting Data Point So Far Today -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46803INV.

Breaking!

Holy mackerel: NVDA just turned green. Folks following the market today know what I'm talking about. This might be a good time to ask: who is most at risk with how Nvidia sees itself?

Now back to original programming. Most interesting data point today, according to some, but absolutely, absolutely predictable. 

Link here. And note my comment at the tweet below --

Reminder, my favorite chart. The MMFs pay dividends, not interest.

Link here.

And, another reminder:

Drilling Parameters In The Bakken -- Hess Hitting The Gold Standard (Again) -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46802B.

XOM: did you all year the compliment paid the Bakken operators in his recent speech? I'll come back to this later, but take a look at Hess below and one will see why Darren Woods said what he said.

Wow, I hope the Fed doesn't cut! Goldilocks for most; gilded age for many.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.59. And there's more. The Biden administration says it's gonna fill the SPR this autumn. Say what? Time to take more oil off the market. LOL.

Wednesday, March 20, 2024: 122 for the month; 181 for the quarter, 181 for the year

• 40053, conf, Oasis, K2 Holdings 5401 11-31 2B,
• 39899, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-1BH,
• 39898, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3422-2BH,
• 38098, conf, BR, Stafford 12-34TFH,

Tuesday, March 19, 2024: 118 for the month; 177 for the quarter, 177 for the year

• 39400, 1,297, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-4, Tioga, 
• stimulated, 9/20/2023; 21 stages; 257,038 bbls; 10,962,243 lbs proppant; and then look at this, began drilling lateral at 4:29 p.m. June 20th and reached TD less than 48 hours later -- at 4:00 p.m. June 23. Drilling rate at an astounding 398.7 ft / hour. Just curious: how long did it take to build the curve? Overnight, from 9:29 p.m. CDT June 18th, 2023, to 10:00 a.m. June 19, 2023. 
• so, again, the gold standard in the Bakken:
• the vertical: less than a day
• the curve: 12 hours
• a long lateral (two-section lateral): 2 days.

RBN Energy: methane intensity and the sourcing of natural gas for LNG exports.

There’s already so much involved in developing new LNG export capacity: lining up offtakers, securing federal approvals, sourcing natural gas, developing pipelines ... the list goes on. Now, with the increased emphasis on minimizing emissions of methane, the folks involved in LNG exports are also wary of the methane intensity (MI) of their feedgas, which depends not only on the steps that gas producers, pipeline companies and LNG exporters themselves take to mitigate methane emissions but also on where the gas comes from. But with so many new export terminals coming online, gas flows are sure to change, right? So how can you possibly assess what those flow changes will mean for the MI of gas over time? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the role that MI may play in sourcing natural gas for LNG.

Measles -- March 19, 2024

Locator: 46801MEASLES.

Reposting from one day ago:

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Measles

Folks who think Florida's response to current measles epidemic is the right way to do things need to re-read the history of measles in the US.

The vaccine took about a decade to develop, from the mid-50s to mid-60s. Not readily available until mid- to late-60s.

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. The vaccine Enders developed was based on the Edmonston strain of attenuated live measles virus, which was named for 11-year-old David Edmonston, the Fay student from whom Peebles had taken the culture that led to the virus's cultivation. 

Nearly twice as many children died from measles as from polio. Wow. Florida's response: parents know best.

In the mid-20th century, measles was particularly devastating in West Africa, where child mortality rate was 50 percent before age 5, and the children were struck with the type of rash and other symptoms common prior to 1900 in England and other countries. The first trial of a live attenuated measles vaccine was undertaken in 1960 by the British paediatrician David Morley in a village near Ilesha, Nigeria; in case he could be accused of exploiting the Nigerian population, Morley included his own four children in the study. The encouraging results led to a second study of about 450 children in the village and at the Wesley Guild Hospital in Ilesha.

Following another epidemic, a larger trial was undertaken in September and October 1962, in New York City with the assistance of the WHO: 131 children received the live Enders-attenuated Edmonston B strain plus gamma globulin, 130 children received a "further attenuated" vaccine without gamma globulin, and 173 children acted as control subjects for both groups.

As also shown in the Nigerian trial, the trial confirmed that the "further attenuated" vaccine was superior to the Edmonston B vaccine, and caused significantly fewer instances of fever and diarrhea. 2,000 children in the area were vaccinated with the further-attenuated vaccine.

Look at the mortality rate. Florida's response: parents know what is best for their children.

The measles vaccine -- and now the MMR vaccine -- has almost no side effects; one of the safest; one of the best. Parents know best. 

The measles vaccine: perhaps one of the best vaccines ever developed --

• 100% safe;
• 100% effective;
• two and done.

While typing that, CNBC had an advertisement on "women's health." Oh, give me a break. Maybe making sure little girls got their measles vaccine would be more effective. After decades of research and billions of dollars, breast cancer mortality pretty much unchanged and uterine cancer surging. 

Gotta love the anti-vaxxers.

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Today: Everybody's Reading The Blog

After posting the blog above, the following popped up today: