Friday, August 4, 2023

Week 31: July 30, 2023 -- August 6, 2023

Locator: 45337TOP.

Top story:


Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues but it seems "no one" knows.

Top international energy story:

  • Saudi Arabia will extend production cut into September

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

    • WTI. Hit $83 before pulling back slightly.

Focus on frackingmost recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment: Trump's indictment and arraignment. Good Omens, Amazon Prime Video.

Back To The Bakken -- Five New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45336B.

Chord Energy:


WTI: $82.82.

Active rigs: 40.

Five new permits, #40097 - #40101, inclusive:
  • Operators: Liberty Resources (4); True Oil 
  • Field: East Tioga (Mountrail); Red Wing Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • True Oil has a permit for a Ness well in NENE 25-148-101, 
      • to be sited 257 NFL and 255 FEL;
    • Liberty Resources has permits for four wells (Paige Federal, Morgan Federal, Storsul Federal, Storsul Federal), NENW 17-158-93; 
      • to be sited 344/345 FNL and between 2101 and 2341 FWL
Seven permits renewed:
  • XTO: four Twin State Federal and three Lawlar permits, Sand Creek and North Tobacco Creek, all in McKenzie County

Whose Blades Are Being Bought By Amazon? August 4, 2023

Locator: 45335TECH.

Whose blades?

The big story this week, of course, in the tech world, was the Amazon story, and more specifically AWS.

The first question one might want to ask: Amazon is using whose blades?

The answer is the same as whose blades Elon Musk is using for his new AI company?

Screenshots:

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Warren Buffett
Career Highlights

Link here.

I imagine there are a gazillion ways to analyze Warren Buffett's investment style, but for me, once he had built up a huge cash position in his partnership, starting about 1936, he started "buying America" in bigger and bigger portions. Of course, it became easier once his pile of cash became bigger, but he still had to make the right decisions, but he continued to "buy America." 

One can run through the career highlights at the link.

Every investor has that opportunity -- to buy "America," even if on a much smaller scale. [Note: buy "America," not buy "American." A slight distinction.]

2023 - 1949 = 74 years of investing.

74 - 39: I need 35 more years to match his investing longevity. LOL. 

At best, I think I have five more years of active, independent investing. But I'm laying out the strategy so that Sophia can take over.

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Whose Bed Have Your Boots Been Under

Link here.

A Goldilocks Economy. Now, A Goldilocks Jobs Market? WSJ -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45334ECON.
Locator: 45334JOBS.



Reuters Technology Round-Up -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45333TECH.

HOOD: down 1.3% today; trading at $11.39.



AMAZON:

The Market -- WTI Hits $83 -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45332MARKET.

This is really quite cool. The rising price of oil -- actually preceded by the surge in the price of gasoline -- will help JPow's attempt to slow the economy. Whether or not we see inflation slow is another question. Sort of depends on the reason for the 9% inflation we saw last year.

This is really quite cool. It appears the American drillers are "getting religion again," after reporting dismal 2Q23 earnings, cutting dividends, and seeing share prices drop. 



BRK: down half a percent.

WTI:
  • up 1.78%
  • up $1.45
  • trading at $83.00

With the market surging today, would this be a good day to see how EVs are doing?

  • F: down one percent, trading at $13.
  • GM: down slightly; trading at $37.
  • TSLA: flat; trading at $259.
  • RIVN: down 0.6%; trading at $26.
  • NKLA: down 13%; trading at $2.96.
  • RIDEQ (note the Q): up half a percent; trading at $3.76.
  • ARVL: down 2%; trading at $2.25.
  • FIS: up 4%; trading at $59.
  • PSNY: down 3%; trading at $4.33.
  • RACE: up a dollar; trading at $315.
  • LCID: down 2%; trading at $6.77

US infrastructure:
  • CAT: down 0.75%;
  • BA: up 1%;
  • DE: up $3.63; up about 1%;
  • UNP: flat, up slightly; back up over $130;
  • CMI: down almost 2%; down $4.59.
Bottom line: ho-hum.

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And So It Begins

Our son-in-law is working on a project in his backyard. The boys needed no encouragement.


TGIF — Markets Surge — Sectors Rotate — August 4, 2023

Locator: 45331MARKET.

After being in the “red” all morning, BRK-B has just turned green (11:32 a.m. CDT).

The oil companies, of course, are having a great day.

  • DVN: up 2%, at just above $51. That's how far it fell. 

UNP: down 33 cents, trading just under $230.

AAPL: holding just above $185. Market cap: $2.194 trillion. A lot of folks buying AAPL today at discount but sellers greatly exceed buyers, based on drop in price. [Later: AAPL breaks below $185.]

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The Book Club

Why Does E=MC^2? Brian Cox And Jeff Forshaw, c. 2009.


I have read any number of books on this subject. It's interesting to see how different folks "describe" these concepts.

Just like dollar and euros, energy and mass are interchangeable.

c^2 is the rate of exchange, but unlike the rate of exchange for dollars and euros, c^2 is a constant.

US Personal Savings Rate -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45330ECON.

Link here.

At one time, I said I have never seen a definition of "savings" that "satisfied" me. Maybe I wasn't looking hard enough. LOL. Here we go.

Savings = income - spending.

Of course, that begs the question: is buying a house a type of forced savings? Other examples, investments or forced savings?
  • whole life insurance;
  • annuities;
  • a second home;
  • a small hobby farm / hobby ranch;
  • other real property like art;
  • paying for education.

Gasoline Demand And The WFH Trend -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45329GASOLINEDEMAND.

WFH: work from home.

Updates

August 5, 2023: from The WSJ -- to attract workers, employers need to offer prospective employees the opportunity to work from home at least one day per week. Link here

Original Post

Gasoline demand, from August 2, 2023:

 This past week, in the weekly EIA petroleum report -- did you all note the weekly gasoline demand chart? Ghastly, and posted by the EIA without comment:


This is simply ghastly ... and again, reported, without comment by anyone.

But, could this explain some of the drop-off in gasoline demand (and, no, it's not yet due to EVs):

Today's employees


Around The Net -- The TGIF Edition -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45328TGIF.

Buffett


NVDA
:

AAPL
:


Fisker Update -- Nikola Update -- 2Q23

Locator: 45328EVS. 

EVs: link here. Scorecard
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Fisker

Link here.


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Nikola



Five Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Nice Jobs Report; WTI At $82 -- August 4, 2023

Locator: 45327B. 

Jobs, link here:
  • 187,000 vs 200,000
  • unemployment: 3.5% vs 3.6%
    • slightly above the lowest rate since late 1969
  • wages rose 0.4% for the month; represents 4.4% annual pace -- both above estimates
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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.97

Sunday, August 6, 2023: 12 for the month; 214 for the quarter, 469 for the year
39314, conf, Stephens Williston DBA SEG Williston, Gernand 13X-32D,
 
Saturday, August 5, 2023: 11 for the month; 213 for the quarter, 468 for the year
39313, conf, Stephens Williston DBA SEG Williston, Gernand 13X-32C, 
38947, conf, Hess, BW-Rolfson-151-98-2116H-14, 

Friday, August 4, 2023: 9 for the month; 211 for the quarter, 466 for the year
39570, conf, Challenger Point Energy, Jacobsen 13-6, 
39539, conf, WPX, Two Shields Butte 16-8-7-13HA,
39480, conf, CLR, Meadowlark 12-6HSL1, 
39472, conf, Ovintiv, Newman 150-97-21-16-1H,
35018, conf, BR, Lillibridge 1C MBH,

Cargo ships move more than 80% of the world’s internationally traded goods, making them essential to the global economy, but they’ve traditionally been fueled by heavy fuel oil or marine gasoil, both of which are emissions-intensive. With 60,000 or so ships in service, they account for an estimated 2.8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a percentage the International Maritime Organization (IMO) would like to reduce. At the 80th session of the IMO’s Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in July, the group adopted a provisional agreement to eliminate GHG emissions from shipping by a date as close to 2050 as possible, with intermediate goals for emissions reduction by 2030 and 2040. Clearly, radical innovations will be required to meet the IMO’s goals. In today’s RBN blog, we look at some of the initiatives directed at emissions reduction in shipping and the challenges to (and opportunities for) operational improvements, especially regarding LNG carriers.